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Thursday, November 7, 2013

Looking Ahead to the National Championship Game

Robert Griffin III and Baylor fans celebrate the Bears' win over Oklahoma on Nov. 19, 2011.

Based on the BCS standings, it is looking like Alabama would meet Florida State in the national championship game in January.

Oregon is still a contender, but either Alabama or Florida State would have to stumble for that to happen — and, of course, Oregon would have to win out.

I've been following college football most of my life, and I know that anything truly is possible. It just isn't always probable.

Alabama has won three of the last four national titles; because of that, I guess most people (myself included) take it for granted that the Crimson Tide will be playing in the next national championship game — which will take place in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 6, 2014. That is a reasonable assumption to make, but those plans could be derailed on Saturday when #10 LSU travels to Tuscaloosa. The last time LSU visited Alabama (in 2011), the Tigers won a battle of field goals, 9–6.

So it is possible that Alabama won't be playing in the national championship game. If the Crimson Tide survives, it will have a couple of easy matches with Mississippi State and Chattanooga but then must face the rejuvenated Auburn Tigers in the season–ending Iron Bowl.

And then, if Alabama is still unbeaten, the Tide must face the winner of the SEC East — probably Missouri but South Carolina, Georgia and even Florida still have a mathematical shot at it.

With lopsided wins over Clemson and Miami in recent weeks, Florida State looks almost unbeatable. The Seminoles would have to lose to both Syracuse and Wake Forest and Clemson would have to beat Georgia Tech for Florida State to be denied a spot in the ACC championship game since Florida State holds the tiebreaker over Clemson.

Once there, Florida State, in all likelihood, will face a rematch with Miami. Common sense tells you that won't be an easy game — until you remember how easily Florida State handled Miami last weekend.

So it is probable that Alabama and Florida State will wind up meeting each other in Pasadena. It would be their first encounter since Sept. 29, 2007 and only their fifth ever.

Of course, if one should stumble, the Oregon Ducks will be waiting in the wings.

Oregon faces what is probably its last regular–season challenge tonight when it travels to #6 Stanford. The Ducks do have to face in–state rival Oregon State at the end of the season and then the winner of the Pac–12's South Division — most likely #23 Arizona State — in the conference championship game.

Hang on to your hats. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Idle: #4 Ohio State, #8 Clemson, #13 South Carolina, #18 Michigan State, #22 Northern Illinois

Today

#2 Oregon at #6 Stanford, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The best game of the weekend just might be played tonight at Stanford.

Oregon has the second–best offense in the nation (Stanford is 79th), but Stanford has the 23rd–best defense in the nation while Oregon is ranked 27th.You might not think so, given Oregon's recent success, but Stanford leads this series, 42–30–1.

Stanford won the encounter last year, prompting George Schroeder of USA Today to ask if Stanford has figured out how to stop the Ducks, but Oregon has won 10 of the last 13 meetings. Historically, Stanford has been quite successful at home, but Oregon has won five of the last six games played there.

This will be the first of what I expect to be a series of cliffhangers in the Pac–12 this week. In the end, I expect Oregon to claim a narrow victory.
#12 Oklahoma at #5 Baylor, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: I know it's been kind of chilly lately, but it hasn't been anywhere near cold enough for hell to have frozen over.

Yet that was precisely what I wondered when I read this week that Baylor was a two–touchdown favorite over Oklahoma tonight.

This will be the 22nd time these schools have faced each other, and Baylor has lost all but one — the game that was played in Waco two years ago. Eventual Heisman winner Robert Griffin III engineered that 45–38 triumph.

RGIII isn't around anymore, but, so far, Baylor has the top–rated offense in the nation. With Bryce Petty at quarterback and Lache Seastrunk at running back, the Bears are averaging more than 700 yards in total offense per game. The quality of the opposition has been questionable, but there's nothing questionable about the five–game stretch on which Baylor embarks tonight. Texas Tech is next, then Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas (which might be about to name a new coach).

What happens in those five games will tell us whether Baylor really is the juggernaut it is thought to be.

Oklahoma isn't bad on offense. The Sooners never are, but right now they are tied for 50th (a mediocre ranking) with San Diego State. Defense has really been the Sooners' strong point (OU is 10th in the land), but Baylor's 11th–ranked defense is pretty good, too, and seems better equipped to handle OU than OU appears to be to tackle Baylor.

Until only a few years ago, I never would have thought I would predict this, but I pick Baylor to squeak by in this one. I don't think it will be by two touchdowns ... but you never know.

Friday

#20 Louisville at Connecticut, 7:30 p.m. (Central), 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Connecticut can even the all–time series with a victory. Think that's going to happen?

Louisville's 16th–ranked offense gets most of the attention, but Louisville's defense is ranked second in the nation. Meanwhile, Connecticut's offense is one of the worst in the nation, and its defense is only marginally better.

I expect Louisville to prevail by a couple of touchdowns.

Saturday

#10 LSU at #1 Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: For several years now, this has been the game that decided the winner of the SEC West. There are some other contenders for the title now, but this is still the marquee matchup.

And, as is true of most of its all–time series, Alabama has been dominant — but the Tigers have been almost defiant in resisting the perception that, like everyone else in the SEC, they exist for the virtual amusement of the Crimson Tide. LSU has won five of the last six games the two have played in Tuscaloosa.

I guess the spotlight will shine brightest when LSU has the ball. The Tigers are 22nd in offense; Alabama's defense is ranked fifth. Alabama's offense (#35) has been good but a little inconsistent at times. It will be up against the #21 defense.

Mostly what those numbers tell you is that, in true SEC fashion, the defenses are better than the offenses. But how can that be? Both quarterbacks — LSU's Zach Mettenberger and Alabama's A.J. McCarron — are in the top nine. LSU running back Jeremy Hill averages 115 yards a game. Surely they will put some points on the board.

Maybe. But it is just as likely that we could see another field goal duel.

There are some offensive stars in this game, and they should make things interesting. I expect this one to go down to the wire, as the LSU–Alabama game often does.

I do think that Alabama will win, perhaps by as much as a touchdown, and, in this series, that would qualify as a rout (occasionally, one team will beat the other by more than a touchdown, but that doesn't happen often).
#3 Florida State at Wake Forest, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This is the 32nd time these teams have met, and Wake Forest can't be looking forward to it. The Seminoles have dominated the previous 31 games, 24–6–1.

But most of those games were played at Florida State — and Wake Forest has been more competitive in recent years, going 4–3 against Florida State since 2006.

It will be quite a challenge this year.

Quarterback Jameis Winston leads the Seminoles' fourth–ranked offense. Winston has completed more than 70% of his passes, and his touchdowns–to–interceptions ratio is 4 to 1. Wake Forest's 35th–ranked defense may hang in there for awhile, but Winston will wear that unit down by the second half.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest's 114th–ranked offense should be no match for Florida State's defense, ranked seventh.

It should be an easy victory for Florida State.
#7 Auburn at Tennessee, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the first encounter between these teams since 2009 so none of the players on either side has any memory of this series — or of the times (in 2004 and 1997) when they played for the SEC championship.

Both teams have been down in recent years, but things seems to be turning in their favor — moreso for Auburn than for Tennessee this season, but the Volunteers have shown signs of life. They're 4–5 and need to win two of their last six games to be bowl eligible. With their last two games against 2–6 Kentucky and 4–4 Vanderbilt, it seems bowl eligibility is an attainable goal for the Vols, but a win over Auburn would look good on their resume next to their win over South Carolina — and might lock up a more prestigious bowl bid.

I expect Auburn to win by a field goal.
#9 Missouri at Kentucky, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is the first time Missouri has played at Kentucky since 1968.

Of course, the series isn't extensive. Until the Tigers joined the SEC last year, that 1968 encounter was the last time the teams had met.

And, until the teams kick off Saturday morning, it will be the only game played between these teams in Lexington. Kentucky won that '68 game, by the way.

Missouri's 15th–ranked offense, especially its passing game, should have little trouble with Kentucky's 82nd–ranked defense. Missouri's defense, ranked 56th, isn't a whole lot better, but it should be able to stop Kentucky's offense (ranked 98th).

I'll take Missouri.
Mississippi State at #11 Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: The winner of this game will take the lead in the all–time series — which goes back to 1912, but the teams have only met twice since the Great Depression.

Johnny Manziel (already the subject of pre–draft speculation) is the heart and soul of the Aggies' third–ranked offense, and I expect A&M to score a lot of points, as usual, even though the Aggies are facing the 22nd–ranked defense.

Mississippi State actually has a fairly good offense, too. It is ranked 41st — and should be able to score some points against the Aggie defense, which is 97th. But the Bulldogs won't be able to score enough to win.

I think Texas A&M will outlast Mississippi State.
Virginia Tech at #14 Miami (Fla.), 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: If this turns into a defensive struggle, my money is on Virginia Tech, which has the third–best defense in the nation. Miami's defense isn't bad (#31), but it just isn't in Tech's league.

If it turns out that offenses dominate, though, my money is on Miami. The Hurricane offense is ranked 38th, which isn't great, but it is much better than Tech (#101).

Miami leads the series, thanks in large part to a seven–game winning streak during the Hurricanes' glory years in the 1980s and early '90s.

Lately, though, the series has favored Tech (7–3 against Miami since 2003).

But I think Miami will claim a very narrow win.
Kansas at #15 Oklahoma State, 3 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Oklahoma State leads this all–time series by two victories, 31–29–3, has won eight of the last nine meetings with the Jayhawks and scored 70 points against Kansas the last time the teams played in Stillwater.

I don't think the Cowboys will score 10 touchdowns on Kansas this time. This year's offense hasn't been that potent — but Kansas' defense has been horrid. It has given up more than 50 points twice this season so it is conceivable that OSU's 44th–ranked offense could come close.

As long as the Cowboys don't get caught looking ahead to the three teams they have to play next — unranked Texas, #5 Baylor and #12 Oklahoma, they should improve to 8–1. I pick Oklahoma State by 10.

#16 UCLA at Arizona, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It's probably a longshot, but the Bruins could be playing in the Pac–12 championship game.

They have four games left, and three are against their rivals for the Pac–12 South title — Arizona, #23 Arizona State and Southern Cal. If UCLA sweeps those games (as well as a home game with still–dangerous Washington next week), the Bruins will be playing for the Pac–12 crown.

UCLA leads the all–time series but needed a win last year to snap a five–year losing streak against the Wildcats.

The numbers from this season appear to favor Arizona. The offenses seem evenly matched. Arizona's is 33rd in the nation; UCLA's is 37th. Arizona's defense is ranked 37th; UCLA's is 55th.

But I'm going to go with the team with the big–game experience. I pick UCLA.
#17 Fresno State at Wyoming, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN Networks: The winner of this game will take the lead in the series.

Neither team has much of a defense so I have to conclude that the better offense will win — and that is clearly Fresno State. Record–setting quarterback Derek Carr directs the sixth–best offense in the nation.

But Wyoming has the ninth–best offense in the land, thanks to quarterback Brett Smith and running back Shaun Wick.

Interesting point — the home team has always won (one game was played at a neutral site and Wyoming won that one). But I predict that trend will end.

I pick Fresno State.
Houston at #19 UCF, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is a young series — only four games have been played, all since 2005. UCF has never lost to Houston at home.

Folks who watch this game, either at home or in person, will see two of the best quarterbacks in the nation — UCF's Blake Bortles and Houston's John O'Korn. Each has thrown only four interceptions.

Overall, Houston has the more successful offense, but UCF has a much better defense. I think it will be close, but I'll take UCF by a field goal.
Brigham Young at #21 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It's been a long time since these two teams faced each other — 1980, to be exact.

They met at Wisconsin that year in their first and only encounter, and BYU won.

I'm inclined to think defense will be the decisive factor in this game. Wisconsin's defense is ranked sixth in the nation (BYU's is 51st) and held #4 Ohio State to its lowest score so far this season. It is safe to say the Badgers have been tested.

That's good because BYU's offense (ranked 12th in the land) has bounced back from two early setbacks and led the Cougars to five straight wins, paced by Taysom Hill's 105 rushing yards per game.

As always, Wisconsin has a good running back, too — two of them, in fact: Melvin Gordon (averaging more than 134 yards per game) and James White (who is contributing 100 yards per game).

Clearly, it is reasonable to expect a lot of rushing in this game. Wisconsin's ground game is ranked 10th, and BYU's is ranked 14th.

I think this will be a close game, and BYU could win it, but I'll take Wisconsin by a field goal.

#23 Arizona State at Utah, 3 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: The Sun Devils are in a race in the Pac–12 South and need to beat the Utes, who upset Stanford last month and could still be bowl eligible if they get two more victories.

Arizona State has to focus on the task at hand and not get caught looking ahead to its season–ending games with UCLA and in–state rival Arizona.

Statistically, Arizona State has been far better on both sides of the ball than Utah and should win easily. But, of course, Stanford almost certainly thought the same thing before the Cardinal came to Salt Lake City.

Historically, Arizona State leads this series, 18–6, and has won 14 of the last 16 meetings.

My guess is that Arizona State will pad its lead, but the Sun Devils need to be on their toes. This is an upset waiting to happen.
#24 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's hard to see what the attraction is in this game. Both offenses have been mediocre, and Notre Dame's defense is currently ranked 36th (Pittsburgh's is 33rd).

With the exception of a few gaps, these schools have met nearly every year since 1930, and the Irish have won 15 of the last 19.

I think Notre Dame will win again. It's just hard to imagine how the Irish will do it.
Kansas State at #25 Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Kansas State got off to a bad start this season — with a loss to North Dakota State — and has staggered to a 4–4 record.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, surged to 7–0 start on the strength of its seventh–rated offense, then lost its last two games to the Oklahoma schools. Obviously, the Red Raiders are hoping to get back on the winning track this weekend, but they can't get caught looking ahead to next week's clash with #5 Baylor.

If the Wildcats are going to be bowl eligible, this would be a good signature win and would leave them needing only one more win with three left to play. With a defense that is ranked 30th, that would be an attainable goal. Otherwise, it could be an uphill climb.

Kansas State won the last time the Wildcats played in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders usually beat KSU at home.

I'll pick Texas Tech to win by a field goal.

Last week: 14–0

Season: 157–29

Friday, November 1, 2013

When Seabiscuit Won the Match of the Century

Perhaps you saw the movie about Seabiscuit that was in the theaters a few years back.

It was an inspiring movie. It pushed all the right buttons, and it landed on the American Film Institute's list of the Top 100 inspirational movies of all time. Smack dab in the middle, in fact, at #50.

I'm not sure if it was that inspirational, though. I'm not sure that there weren't exaggerations if not downright falsehoods told in that movie. I guess that's true of most movies, even the ones that supposedly are telling true stories. You've got to exaggerate some things to maintain that level of drama.

You can't tell the truth all the time, can you?

Sometimes, though, it strikes me that the truth is dramatic enough, and so it is with the real story of Seabiscuit.

I realize that Seabiscuit was a horse (of course, of course), but his was really the story of Everyman, the ordinary individual, the underdog facing extraordinary circumstances.

That was Seabiscuit's story. He was a small horse, undersized and underestimated by many, even though he was the grandson of the great Man O' War (who might have won the 1920 Triple Crown if his owner had permitted him to run in the Kentucky Derby).

War Admiral — Seabiscuit's uncle even though he was a year younger — did win the Triple Crown. War Admiral was taller and looked like a race horse whereas Seabiscuit looked like more of a plow horse with his stubby legs.

Seabiscuit's career got off to a shaky start, most likely because his original owner put him through a punishing racing schedule in his early years. He was eventually sold to businessman Charles Howard, who put him in the hands of trainer Tom Smith. Smith put jockey Red Pollard on board the horse, and a winning combination was formed.

Seabiscuit didn't win the Triple Crown because his first owner, feeling the horse was too lazy, pushed a different horse instead. But Seabiscuit's reputation grew with each triumph under Howard, Smith and Pollard, and, by 1938, a debate was raging in the racing world. Which horse was better — Seabiscuit, who raced primarily in the West, or Triple Crown winner War Admiral, who raced primarily in the East?

In 1937, Seabiscuit had been the leading money winner, but War Admiral, having won the Triple Crown, was voted Horse of the Year.

It was decided that the matter would be settled on Nov. 1, 1938, at Pimlico in Baltimore.

In true Everyman fashion, Seabiscuit endured setbacks along the way. His successful relationship with Pollard was derailed in early 1938 when Pollard was injured racing another horse. Another jockey, George Woolf, stepped in for him and enjoyed mixed results before Pollard was able to return to action.

Pollard's return was short lived, though. While working a young colt, Pollard was thrown and his leg was shattered. His career appeared to be over; it would be up to Woolf to ride Seabiscuit in what is remembered as the match of the century — Seabiscuit's match race with War Admiral 75 years ago today.

Conventional wisdom in horse racing holds that, in a head–to–head race, the advantage is with the horse that has the fastest start, and Seabiscuit was notorious for habitually hanging back at the start and then springing to the lead at the end. To a great extent, that was how he had earned a reputation for being lazy.

War Admiral, on the other hand, was known to be a front runner; consequently, War Admiral was a 1–to–4 favorite.

But what most people didn't know was that Smith had adjusted his training methods specifically for the race with War Admiral. He conditioned Seabiscuit to have a Pavlovian response to the sound of the starting bell (through the use of the whip), and Seabiscuit practically exploded from the gate.

It was a dramatic race. War Admiral closed the gap between the two near the midway point, and most observers probably thought he would win as expected. But Seabiscuit seemed to find something within himself — the equine equivalent of another gear, I suppose — and pulled away again.

The result was that Seabiscuit won the race by four lengths and, not long after, was voted the Horse of the Year for 1938 — with War Admiral finishing second again.

The stubby grandson of Man O' War had become an unlikely hero for a Depression–weary nation.

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Every Saturday is a Chance for Something Memorable in College Football

College football has often provided inspirational moments in my life, but there may have been none better than Duke's upset win over Virginia Tech last weekend.

Of course, each weekend is a new opportunity to see a dramatic chapter written in the history of college football. I'll grant you, the opportunities are fewer this weekend because roughly one–third of the nation's Top 25 teams are idle. Even so, there are three games matching two ranked teams, and there may be none more compelling than the Miami–Florida State game.

But Oklahoma State will be playing Texas Tech and Michigan will be playing Michigan State. Not bad for the first weekend in November, huh?

Idle: #1 Alabama, #2 Oregon, #5 Baylor, #6 Stanford, #11 LSU, #13 Oklahoma, #19 UCF, #20 Louisville

Today

#25 Arizona State at Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Arizona State has won eight of its last nine games with Washington State, but the last time the Sun Devils were the visitors, two years ago, they lost.

The same thing could happen this year.

Everyone focuses on offense in the Pac–12, but it is really on defense where there is a noticeable gap between these teams. Arizona State's defense is 21st in the country (and should be able to handle Washington State's 54th–ranked offense). Meanwhile, Arizona State's 14th–ranked offense (led by quarterback Taylor Kelly) should have little trouble with Washington State's mediocre defense (95th in the land).

I pick Arizona State by a narrow margin.

Saturday

#7 Miami (Fla.) at #3 Florida State, 7 p.m. on ABC: Rankings aside, I expect this to be the best game of the weekend.

Both teams are in the Top 10, of course, but, beyond that, both are in the Top 25 in both offense and defense. I think it's fair to say this game has it all.

Want to see great college quarterbacks? Florida State has Jameis Winston, currently second only to Baylor's QB in the national rankings. Miami has Stephen Morris, who doesn't get as much media attention, but he has completed nearly 60% of his passes. The bad news for both is that they must face a Top 10 pass defense.

Do you prefer great college running backs? Miami has Duke Johnson, who needs less than 200 yards for a 1,000–yard season (and has five regular–season games to get them). Florida State is 29th in run defense.

Miami leads the all–time series, but the Hurricanes have lost to the Seminoles three consecutive times. Make that four straight. I pick Florida State.
#4 Ohio State at Purdue, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Ohio State leads the all–time series, 39–14–2, but, in seven of the last eight games, the home team has ended up winning.

That's good news for Purdue, but the Boilermakers will need to score to win, and one wonders how the 120th–ranked offense can move the ball against Ohio State's 14th–ranked defense. When the Buckeyes' eighth–ranked offense has the ball, it is likely to struggle a bit against Purdue's 69th–ranked defense. My thinking is QB Braxton Miller will find a way.

I pick Ohio State by two touchdowns.
#8 Auburn at Arkansas, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Arkansas' new coach, Bret Bielema, can be blunt — and I like that. He needs to make it clear that he runs the program, not the other way around, and he's constantly looking out for its well being. I think he is doing that.

This week, for example, he said the video that was provided by Auburn gave an incomplete picture of the Tigers in action. As an Arkansas graduate, I like the fact that he stands up for his team. One of these days, that's going to pay off with a big, unexpected victory. I really believe that.

If Arkansas could win this game, the Razorbacks would even the all–time series between the schools, and, believe it or not, recent history is in their favor (Arkansas has won four of the last five meetings).

But this season's statistics are not.

Auburn's 13th–ranked offense should be able to handle Arkansas' #55 defense. Auburn's defense is only ranked 75th, but that seems capable of stopping Arkansas' 100th–ranked offfense.

As much as I would like to see the Razorbacks win, I have to pick Auburn.
#9 Clemson at Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the first time these teams have faced off since 2009, but they are historically familiar with each other, having met 46 times since 1955.

Clemson has won more than 81% of the time, but neither team has won more than two in a row against the other since the 1980s.

QB Tajh Boyd has led Clemson to its #18 ranking in offense, but it is important to remember that, while Virginia's defense is ranked 64th nationally, its ranking against the pass is 29th. That should make things interesting when the Tigers have the ball.

When the Cavaliers have the ball, Clemson's 38th–ranked defense should be adequate to stop Virginia's #83 offense.

I pick Clemson by 10.

Tennessee at #10 Missouri, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Last year's meeting in Knoxville was the first ever between these two schools. It was a high–scoring affair, and Missouri won by a field goal, 51–48. Now the Volunteers are coming to Columbia to take on the Tigers a week after South Carolina bested Mizzou on that field in two overtimes.

If this game turns into another high–scoring affair, my money is on Missouri again. Tennessee's 70th–ranked defense is bound to have problems with Missouri's 16th–ranked offense.

And when Tennessee has the ball, the action on the field might more closely resemble the Keystone Kops. Tennessee's offense, ranked 96th, might be up against the only defense that will permit it to score. Missouri's defense is ranked 112th.

I pick Missouri by a touchdown.
Texas–El Paso at #12 Texas A&M, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams have met only twice before — in 1984 and 2000 — and the Aggies won both.

I don't really expect anything different in this game. I pick Texas A&M by three touchdowns.
Mississippi State at #14 South Carolina, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This game really could be a lot more competitive than most people think it will be.

South Carolina has owned this series in the 21st century. The Gamecocks are 6–0 against the Bulldogs since 2000.

Prior to 2000, though, Mississippi State won six of eight.

Carolina is 4–3 as host and visitor so if Mississippi State wins, the series will be even in Columbia. Don't bet the rent money on it.

South Carolina's offense and defense are ranked higher than Mississippi State's, but there isn't much separating them, especially on defense. If Mississippi State was the home team, I would be tempted to pick the Bulldogs.

But, in spite of their victory over Missouri last week, which gave them the tiebreaker over the Tigers, the Gamecocks face a must–win situation every week while they have to hope the Tigers stumble once more. That's not likely to happen this week or the next, but it could still happen around Thanksgiving, when Missouri has to play Ole Miss and Texas A&M on consecutive weekends.

Things should be considerably clearer by that time — and South Carolina could still be eliminated from the race in the SEC East by losing to the Bulldogs this weekend or Florida in a couple of weeks — but, for now, the Gamecocks are still in the hunt, and I think South Carolina will win this one.
#18 Oklahoma State at #15 Texas Tech, 6 p.m. (Central) on FOX: This has the potential to be an entertaining game.

Texas Tech has the fifth–best offense in the nation, but it is more of a team effort than an individual one. On defense, OSU may be up to the challenge with its #26 ranking.

When the Cowboys' 48th–ranked offense has the ball, it might be evenly matched with Tech's 41st–ranked defense.

Historically — and this is a series that goes back to 1935 — the home team is favored, although Oklahoma State has won the last four meetings, regardless of where they were played.

Before that streak began, Tech had beaten OSU in nine straight contests in Lubbock.

I think Oklahoma State will extend its current two–game winning streak there.
Nevada at #16 Fresno State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN Networks: After 18 meetings, this series is knotted at 9–9.

And, no matter who breaks the tie, it is probably safe to say that the defenses will have little to say about it. Fresno's defense is ranked 90th; Nevada's is 117th.

Fresno, behind QB Derek Carr, has the nation's seventh–best offense. Nevada is ranked 52nd.

I pick Fresno State by two touchdowns.
Colorado at #17 UCLA, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: UCLA leads this series 6–2, has won the last two meetings and hasn't lost at home to Colorado in more than 10 years.

More recent history is even less favorable for the Buffaloes. In the offense–rich Pac–12, UCLA is outranked by only three other schools (#2 Oregon, #25 Arizona State and Washington). Neither defense has been terribly impressive, but it's safe to say Colorado's 112th–ranked defense throws no real scares into the Bruins.

I pick UCLA to win by 10.
#21 Northern Illinois at Massachusetts, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN Regional, ESPN3.com: These teams met for the first time last season, and UMass comes into the second encounter still looking for its first points. NIU won, 63–0.

We might see a repeat of that outcome. Neither team has much of a defense (NIU is 89th; Massachusetts is 92nd) so it appears to be a question of which offense is better — and of that there seems to be no doubt. NIU is tied for fifth in the nation in offense while Massachusetts' offense is one of the nation's worst (119th).

I pick Northern Illinois by 20 points.

#22 Wisconsin at Iowa, 11:06 a.m. (Central) on ABC and ESPN2: This has to be one of the most competitive series in college football.

This will be the 87th meeting of these two schools. Both have won 42, and there were two ties in the pre–overtime days.

Recent history favors the Hawkeyes. They have won two–thirds of the games played since 2002.

The numbers, however, give the edge to the Badgers. Both teams have solid defenses — Wisconsin's is ranked sixth, Iowa's is ranked 12th. On offense, though, Wisconsin (behind Melvin Gordon's 144 rushing yards per game) is 11th in the nation while Iowa is 74th.

I pick Wisconsin by a field goal.
#23 Michigan at #24 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It probably doesn't take a genius to conclude that defense will play a big role in this game.

This week, USA Today fantasized about having the Michigan offense and Michigan State defense on a single football squad.

I don't get it, though.

Michigan State does have the top–ranked defense in the nation. Michigan isn't bad (#27), but when you're playing the #1 defense in the land, your defense is going to seem pale by comparison.

And Michigan's offense is better than Michigan State's, but that really isn't saying much. The Wolverines are 45th — nothing special — and the Spartans are 87th.

Everyone knows about Michigan's rivalries with Notre Dame and Ohio State, but the rivalry with Michigan State is a natural one for the state. I suppose that lends itself to such flights of fancy.

The series dates back to the late 19th century, but the winner has been receiving the Paul Bunyan Trophy since 1953, the year Michigan State became a full member of the Big Ten.

The Spartans dominated the series in the 1950s and 1960s — in spite of the fact that Michigan hosted the game 88% of the time until 1957. Since that time, the game has been played in alternating cities — and this year, it is being played in East Lansing, where Michigan State has won the last two encounters.

I'll go with Michigan State and its defense in this one.

Last week: 17–3

Season: 143–29

Saturday, October 26, 2013

It's Put Up or Shut Up Time in College Football

There were a lot of upsets in the Top 25 last week. I got nearly half of my picks wrong — by far my worst week this season.

Nearly every outcome in the Southeastern Conference was a surprise — except, of course, for the game that involved my alma mater. As expected, Arkansas lost to top–ranked Alabama — but #6 LSU, #7 Texas A&M, #11 South Carolina, #15 Georgia and #22 Florida all went down to defeat.

Georgia and Florida dropped out of the Top 25 as a result. The other three tumbled but remained in the rankings.

The SEC wasn't the only conference that had upsets (or, at least, victories for lower–ranked teams over higher–ranked ones), but it had the most, and the SEC went into last weekend with a record number of conference members in the Top 25.

In the ACC, #5 Florida State whipped #3 Clemson. In the American Athletic Conference, #8 Louisville lost to Central Florida. In the Pac–12, #13 Stanford beat #9 UCLA, and Arizona State hammered #20 Washington.

Idle: #22 Wisconsin, #24 Michigan

Today

Tennessee at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: They call this old rivalry the Third Saturday in October. The fact that this is actually the fourth Saturday in October apparently is irrelevant.

Alabama leads the series, of course, as it does with just about every team it has ever faced. Tennessee has enjoyed periods when it held the upper hand (most recently, 1995–2001), but Alabama has won seven of the last eight encounters.

Recent history doesn't favor the Volunteers. Even more recent history is even less encouraging.

The 'Bama defense is fifth in the nation. Tennessee is 75th. Alabama's offense is ranked 35th in the country; Tennessee's is 89th.

I'm inclined to think that Tennessee, which is coming off an impressive victory over South Carolina, will give Alabama a good game, perhaps the closest since the teams met in Tuscaloosa four years ago, and Alabama won by two points. But I still think Alabama will win.
#12 UCLA at #2 Oregon, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: UCLA leads the series, but the momentum has been with Oregon in the 21st century.

Since the year 2000, Oregon is 8–2 against UCLA.

Given the statistics that have accumulated this season, I'm inclined to think Oregon will continue to have the edge. But UCLA has been quite successful this year — in spite of last week's loss to Stanford.

Oregon's offense is second only to Baylor in the national rankings, but UCLA is 15th in offense, which suggests a high–scoring game especially since neither team has been particularly impressive on defense, at least when compared to the offenses. UCLA's defense ranked 32nd; Oregon's is 42nd.

I expect Oregon to win by a touchdown, maybe more.
North Carolina State at #3 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: The Wolfpack beat the Seminoles last year, but they have to travel to Florida today, and they have only won there twice since 1969.

On top of that, Florida State has the sixth–best defense in the country, and it should be capable of stopping North Carolina State (#56 in offense).

N.C. State isn't bad on defense (#26), but one has to wonder how successful it will be against the fifth–best offense in the country — even without its star running back James Wilder.

I pick Florida State by 15.
Penn State at #4 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These schools have been Big Ten rivals for 20 years, but the series goes back a century — to a time when Ohio State wasn't a 1–A school.

Ohio State leads the series, 15–13, and I would be inclined to pick the Buckeyes to win this game even if they were't playing in Columbus. That part is merely a bonus.

Ohio State is in the Top 25 in both offense and defense. Penn State (4–2) isn't bad — the Nittany Lions, after all, are coming off a four–overtime victory over Michigan (which has this weekend off to lick its wounds) — and its defense is pretty good (#17 in the nation), but I don't believe its offense (#49) can keep up with the Buckeyes.

The Associated Press says Penn State will be ready for the Buckeyes. We'll find out tonight.

I pick Ohio State by 11.
#20 South Carolina at #5 Missouri, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is a game I've had my eye on all week. It is homecoming at Missouri, which adds a little extra incentive, as if one is needed.

South Carolina came into the season expecting to contend for the SEC East title, but losses to Georgia and Tennessee have pretty much pushed the Gamecocks out of the conversation. They certainly can't afford to lose in Columbia today.

It&aspos;s hard to see how they can avoid it, though. Mizzou has been averaging more than 44 points per game (slightly less in conference play). That translates to a #11 ranking nationally. That should be a challenge for South Carolina's defense, which is good (#21 in the nation) but perhaps not quite that good.

When South Carolina has the ball, the Gamecocks' 29th–ranked offense is capable of scoring some points, too. Missouri's defense isn't as good as its offense (#50), which leads me to believe Missouri will win, but it will be very close, perhaps decided by a last–second field goal.
#6 Baylor at Kansas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Baylor leads the series, 8–4, but the majority of the Bears' wins have come in Waco. Kansas leads, 4–2, in Lawrence.

Well, Baylor's top–ranked offense should take care of things today. The 6–0 Bears have been averaging nearly 65 points a game (they've scored 70 or more four times and came up one point short of that once). The smart money says Kansas' #71 defense won't have much success stopping that.

When Kansas' 118th–ranked offense has the ball, my guess is Baylor's 11th–ranked defense won't have much trouble.

Bottom line? Baylor by a couple of touchdowns.
Wake Forest at #7 Miami (Fla.), 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: As one would expect, Miami leads this series. In fact, the Hurricanes have the advantage wherever they have played, but Miami is unbeaten on Wake Forest's turf while Wake Forest could knot the series in Miami with a win today.

Let me be clear here. I don't expect that to happen. Miami has beaten Wake Forest six straight times and hasn't lost to the Demon Deacons since World War II.

Miami has the 16th–best offense and the 18th–best defense in the nation. Wake Forest isn't bad on defense (#38) but is absolutely horrid on offense (#112).

Because of the latter weakness on Wake Forest's part, I expect Miami to win by at least 10 points.
#8 Stanford at Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: In a series that goes back to 1919, Stanford is far ahead of Oregon State. The Beavers have rarely enjoyed the advantage in the series, usually only an occasional victory.

But Stanford should not be complacent. While everyone has been ooohing and aaahing over the offense of that other Oregon team, Oregon State has been quietly rising to #8 in the nation in offense. In the offense–rich Pac–12, Stanford is a dismal 73rd.

Stanford makes up for it, I suppose, with a defense that is 34th in the land (Oregon State is a modest #62).

This should be a close, competitive game, but, in the end, I don't think Oregon State will have one of its occasional victories over Stanford. I expect Stanford to win by, perhaps, a field goal.
#9 Clemson at Maryland, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I have to feel sorry for the Terps.

Their record isn't bad (5–2), but they haven't beaten anyone who is highly regarded. In fact, one of their losses was a 63–0 blowout at the hands of Florida State. Of course, it is no disgrace to lose to Florida State, but previously unbeaten Clemson is coming off a 55–14 loss to the Seminoles and is bound to be looking for some kind of redemption this week.

Maryland could be just what the doctor ordered for the Tigers.

Historically, Clemson leads the series (33–26–2) and has won the last three meetings. The Tigers, with QB Tajh Boyd, have a Top 25 offense, and Maryland has a Top 25 defense.

I think it will be an interesting game, and I'll pick Clemson by a touchdown.
#10 Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Some are calling this the game of the week.

These schools have faced off every season but one since 1992, and OU has won 70% of the time. The last time the Red Raiders came to Norman, though, they left with a 41–38 victory.

Oklahoma is proud — and deservedly so — of its ninth–ranked defense, but the Sooners shouldn't be complacent. The Red Raiders, behind QB Davis Webb and his top receiver, Jace Amaro, have the sixth–best offense in the country whereas the Sooner offense is ranked 60th (and Tech's defense is 30th in the nation).

I expect this to be another close one — with Oklahoma prevailing ... barely.
Florida Atlantic at #11 Auburn, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: These schools have met only once before — two years ago, when Auburn beat visitor Florida Atlantic, 30–14.

Auburn was coming off its first loss in the post–Cam Newton era then. This time, it is coming off an important victory over Texas A&M.

Next up for Auburn is a date with my alma mater, the University of Arkansas. The Razorbacks should be a greater challenge than Furman — and, unless FAU pulls off an upset today, I'll be writing about the Auburn–Arkansas game next week.

In the meantime, I expect Auburn to win by more than a couple of touchdowns.
Furman at #13 LSU: There really isn't much to say about this one.

LSU seldom loses at home, and it is hard to imagine Furman winning in Baton Rouge. I expect LSU to win — big.

Vanderbilt at #14 Texas A&M, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There is no doubt that, when you switch on a Texas A&M football game, you're going to see a lot of scoring.

The Aggies have scored nearly 47 points a game — on average. They scored 42 points against the two–time defending national champions, the Alabama Crimson Tide. To put this in perspective, no one had scored 40 points or more against Alabama since LSU in 2007. In fact, in the last 2½ seasons, most teams haven't been able to score 20 points against the Tide, let alone 40. The Aggie offense is currently third in the nation — and deservedly so.

But the Aggies have a problem with their defense. It is ranked 118th in the nation. It's been giving up nearly 34 points a game. Most of the time, the Aggie offense has been able to overcome that, but there have been some narrow escapes this season. And, last week, the Aggies weren't able to escape the Auburn Tigers.

This week's opponent should be easily vanquished, but that is what the Georgia Bulldogs thought last week — and Vanderbilt beat them.

The Commodores will have a considerable challenge on their hands, and they won't have the home crowd on their side. It should be an interesting game — not to mention entertaining. Vandy might well score 30 or more — the Commodores hung 31 on Georgia last week — but I predict Texas A&M will prevail.
#15 Fresno State at San Diego State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Historically, San Diego State has dominated this series, 14–7, but the numbers seem to favor Fresno State, which has won two of the last three.

But Fresno State hasn't won at San Diego State in nearly 20 years.

Nevertheless, Fresno State brings the nation's fourth–best offense into this game. Quarterback Derek Carr has completed more than 70% of his passes and should cause problems for San Diego State, which has struggled against the pass. I pick Fresno State.
Duke at #16 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Historically, Virginia Tech is a practical shoo–in.

Tech has beaten Duke 12 straight times and has never lost to Duke in Blacksburg. In fact, the only time Duke won at Virginia Tech, the game wasn't even played in Blacksburg. It was played in nearby Roanoke 65 years ago.

My thinking is that defense will decide the outcome. The most interesting moments may come when Duke has the ball. Virginia Tech's defense is second in the nation, but the Hokies may be challenged by Duke's 40th–ranked offense. When Tech's 110th–ranked offense has the ball, it will have to contend with Duke's 54th–ranked defense.

I pick Virginia Tech to win.
#18 Louisville at South Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This series is knotted up at 5–5.

Never has one team beaten the other three consecutive times, but that is precisely what will happen if Louisville wins today.

However, both teams are 4–1 at home so if Louisville does win, it will buck yet another historical trend.

Louisville should win by a couple of touchdowns.
#19 Oklahoma State at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: This strikes me as a potential "trap" game.

OSU wins nearly 70% of the time when they play in Stillwater, but Iowa State has a narrow historical edge at home.

The Cowboys have the edge on both sides of the ball, but the edge is more decisive on defense. I pick Oklahoma State to win by 10.
Connecticut at #21 UCF, 11 a.m. (Central) on Altitude and MASN2: Folks attending this game will see the first–ever meeting between these schools.

UCF has the advantage on both sides of the ball and should win by 10 points.
Eastern Michigan at #23 Northern Illinois, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CSN–CHI: All the numbers seem to favor Northern Illinois in this one.

NIU leads the all–time series 19–5–2. The schools have faced off in each of the last 16 seasons, and NIU has won all but three.

Northern Illinois' seventh–ranked offense is likely to cause problems for Eastern Michigan's 112th–ranked defense. And Eastern Michigan's offense (90th in the land) probably will be evenly matched with Northern Illinois' defense (ranked 100th).

I think Northern Illinois will win by a couple of touchdowns.
#25 Nebraska at Minnesota, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools are meeting as conference rivals for only the third time, but this is the 54th meeting in a series that dates back more than 100 years.

The Golden Gophers have won more than 60% of the time when they have played in Minnesota, but that was in the early years of the series. The Cornhuskers haven't lost in Minnesota since 1954, and Nebraska has beaten Minnesota 16 straight times.

The Cornhuskers have a decided advantage on offense (#21 to #111) while the Gophers hold a smaller edge on defense (#45 to #72). My guess is Nebraska will win by a slim margin.

Last week: 11–9

Season: 126–26

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Another Great Weekend On Tap for College Football Fans

Last week was my roughest one yet this season. Lots of surprises.

Texas knocked off Oklahoma. Missouri upset Georgia. Utah upended Stanford. Penn State stunned Michigan in four overtimes.

And, while some people weren't surprised that LSU beat Florida, I was.

Saturday was a great day to be a college football fan. I was talking to an old friend about it on Sunday, how I jumped from channel to channel all day, and he said he did the same.

This Saturday might be just as great.

Idle: #19 Virginia Tech

Today

#10 Miami (Fla.) at North Carolina, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Things could get ugly when Miami has the ball in this game. Miami's offense, led by quarterback Stephen Morris and running back Duke Johnson, is ranked 21st in the nation, but North Carolina's defense is 94th.

It might not be much better when the Tar Heels have the ball. The North Carolina offense, ranked 76th in the country, must contend with the nation's 12th–best defense.

In a series that predates the time when these schools became conference rivals, Miami trails by two, nine wins to seven.

Most of the games between the teams have been played in Miami, but tonight, for only the sixth time, Miami is visiting North Carolina, a place where the Hurricanes have lost 80% of the time.

Miami was winless at North Carolina until the Hurricanes visited two years ago. I expect Miami to make it two in a row tonight.

Friday

Central Florida at #8 Louisville, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the first paragraph in a new chapter in the history of both football programs.

And while it is probably tempting for Central Florida fans to be mesmerized by Louisville's offense (#16 in the land), they would be wise not to overlook the defense, which is second in the country.

UCF's 32nd–ranked defense might make things interesting when Louisville has the ball, but I really don't think Central Florida's 66th–ranked offenese will be much of a challenge for Louisville.

I pick Louisville.

Saturday

Arkansas at #1 Alabama, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: OK, I'm an Arkansas graduate. I always want to see the Razorbacks win. But they have really been struggling this season, and now they must travel to Alabama to take on the top–ranked, two–time defending national champion Alabama Crimson Tide.

These schools have faced each other 23 times, the last 21 as members of the same conference. Alabama has beaten Arkansas the last six times they met. It's been 10 years since Arkansas won in Tuscaloosa.

Well, that's the historical record. The numbers from this season aren't encouraging, either. Alabama's defense is eighth in the nation; Arkansas' is 44th. On offense, Alabama is 44th; Arkansas is tied with Air Force for 91st.

So, as much as I would like to see Arkansas win, I have to choose Alabama.

Washington State at #2 Oregon, 9 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Are you convinced that Oregon is one of the nation's best? I'll bet the Ducks make believers of the Cougars.

Oregon has the second–best offense in the nation. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is part of every Heisman discussion these days with 17 passing touchdowns and zero — that's right, zero — interceptions.

These teams have been playing each other almost every year since 1917. Oregon has won eight of the last nine meetings; in fact, with a few exceptions, Oregon has dominated the series for the last 30 years. Washington State has enjoyed its moments, but this isn't likely to be one of them.

I'm going with Oregon.
#5 Florida State at #3 Clemson, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This has the potential to be the best game of the weekend.

Florida State is in the top 10 in both offense (#4) and defense (#7), but Clemson is no slouch, ranking 13th in offense and 21st in defense.

The home team has won the last six meetings between these schools, and Florida State hasn't won at Clemson since 2001.

This should be close, very competitive, but I'll take Clemson by a field goal.
Iowa at #4 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: These teams don't play each other every year, but they meet in most of them. They've met 20 times since 1985, and Ohio State has won all but four (three losses and one tie).

Statistically, Ohio State has a decisive advantage on offense while Iowa has a modest edge on defense. I think Ohio State will be able to score while Iowa will struggle so I pick Ohio State to win by at least a touchdown.
#6 LSU at Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Don't let either the absence of a ranking or the failure to score against Alabama fool you. This is a good Ole Miss football team — as Texas A&M learned last week.

The Aggies had to rally in the fourth quarter and kick a last–second field goal to beat the Rebels.

Ole Miss was ranked earlier in the season, but the Rebels have fallen to 3–3 — and probably will be 3–4 after LSU comes to town. The Tigers have a record of 10–3 against Ole Miss since 2000, and they have won nearly 60% of the time when the teams have played in Oxford.

Statistically, LSU has the advantage on both sides of the ball. Good thing for Ole Miss that the Rebels are at home. If this game was in Baton Rouge, I'd predict a blowout, but, since it will be in front of the home folks, I'll predict a narrow LSU victory.
#24 Auburn at #7 Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This isn't Cam Newton's Auburn team — but it's probably the best team Auburn has had since Newton won the Heisman and left for the NFL.

Texas A&M wasn't a member of the Southeastern Conference when Newton was directing Auburn's offense. In fact, the series is quite brief — only three meetings in more than a century, but the Aggies have won all three.

None of the games have been played in College Station so this will be a first. The teams played in Dallas in October of 1911, then again in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Day 1986, then last year at Auburn. Now they meet in College Station.

That's not a good thing. Auburn may be 5–1, but the Tigers' sole loss has come when they traveled to LSU last month in their only road game so far. And this road trip may be even tougher. Auburn must face the third–best offense in the country, and defending Heisman winner Johnny Mantiel.

I expect Texas A&M to win.
#9 UCLA at #13 Stanford, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Last year, these teams met twice in the space of a week, and Stanford won both.

Their first meeting was on Nov. 24 in the regularly scheduled season finale. The second meeting was the following Friday for the Pac–12 championship.

This series has a history of shifting patterns. Stanford has won the last five meetings; UCLA won the five before that. Prior to that, the home team won six straight games.

Consequently, it's time to begin a new pattern. What will it be? Will UCLA start a new winning streak? Will Stanford win and break the current pattern with a sixth straight victory?

I pick UCLA.
#11 South Carolina at Tennessee, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Tennessee has dominated this series, which began long before these schools were in the same conference together.

Tennessee has won regularly, whether at home or on the road, but the Volunteers have been particularly successful at home, winning 14 of 16 meetings there. However, both of South Carolina's road wins in the series have come in the Gamecocks' last four trips to Knoxville. The times appear to be a–changin'.

I pick South Carolina by a touchdown.
Iowa State at #12 Baylor, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Never in my wildest dreams did I think I would live to see Baylor ranked #1 in the nation in offense.

But that is where the Bears are, thanks to Bryce Petty, the top–rated quarterback and running back Lache Seastrunk, and that has to be bad news for Iowa State's defense, which isn't even in the top 100.

Things should be better — but only marginally so — when Iowa State has the ball.

This is the 12th time these teams have met, and, if Baylor wins, the series will be all tied up.

Iowa State has won two of the last three games, but Baylor hasn't lost to Iowa State in Waco since 2004. It seems unfair for Baylor to have so many advantages. But that's how it works out sometimes.

Baylor will win — comfortably. (And that's something else I never thought I would say.)
#22 Florida at #14 Missouri, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This is only the third time these schools have met.

For a long time, their only meeting was on New Year's Day 1966 when Missouri beat Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Then, last year, they met for the second time during Missouri's inaugural season in the Southeastern Conference. That game was played in Gainesville, and Florida won by a touchdown.

This weekend, for the first time ever, Florida will travel to Columbia, Mo., to visit the 14th–ranked Tigers, who pulled off an astonishing win over Georgia last weekend but lost their quarterback in the process. Turns out, it isn't as bad as it could be. James Franklin suffered a sprained shoulder and will be out 3–5 weeks.

Franklin will definitely miss the games against #22 Florida, #11 South Carolina and Tennessee. He may be back for the Nov. 9 game with Kentucky; after that, the Tigers have a bye week so fans should expect him to be back for the season–ending games with Ole Miss and #7 Texas A&M.

The freshman who will be filling in for him will be making his first collegiate start against the third–ranked defense in the nation. The Missouri offense is 12th in the country with Franklin, but it remains to be seen how effective it will be without him.

Florida may have the toughest second–half schedule of any team in the SEC — with three ranked teams (including Missouri) left to play. The Tigers might have won if Franklin was running the offense, but since he won't, I think Florida will win.
#15 Georgia at Vanderbilt, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: After last week's loss to Missouri, a trip to Nashville might be just the thing to get the Georgia Bulldogs back on track.

Historically, Georgia has won nearly three–quarters of the time when they have visited Vanderbilt. They're more successful at home, but if you have to go on the road the week after losing at home, that's the kind of history you want to have.

Georgia has won 10 in a row at Vanderbilt, and common sense says the Bulldogs will make it 11. I pick Georgia.
#16 Texas Tech at West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: Way back in 1938, these teams met in the Sun Bowl. They didn't meet again until last year when West Virginia joined the Big 12, and the Red Raiders hammered the Mountaineers in Lubbock.

Texas Tech brings the sixth–ranked offense to West Virginia, which is 75th in that category. On defense, Tech is a respectable 21st while West Virginia is a mediocre 93rd.

I expect Texas Tech to win by about a touchdown.
UNLV at #17 Fresno State, 9 p.m. (Central) on Mountain West Network: This is a revival of a series that has been dormant for 16 years.

When last they met, Fresno State was winning its ninth straight against UNLV, which, until recently, was known mostly for its basketball program. In fact, UNLV hasn't beaten Fresno State in nearly 30 years.

The numbers suggest UNLV won't win this time, either, although both teams should be able to score quite a bit. Fresno State is seventh in offense (UNLV is 86th in defense). UNLV is a modest 46th in offense, but Fresno State is 98th in defense.

I pick Fresno State by about two touchdowns.
#18 Oklahoma at Kansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: OU has dominated this series over the years, winning nearly three–quarters of the time. The Sooners haven't lost to the Jayhawks since 1997, which was also the last time OU lost in Lawrence.

Historically, the Sooners have been more prone to lose at Kansas than at home, but they have won at least 70% of the time in both places — and I expect that trend to continue. Oklahoma (5–1) has been stronger on both offense and defense than 2–3 Kansas. My guess is that the real challenge for OU will be to avoid thoughts of next week's home date with unbeaten Texas Tech.

I pick Oklahoma by 10 points.
#20 Washington at Arizona State, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Arizona State has a seven–game winning streak in this series, and Washington hasn't won in Phoenix since 2000.

Washington has been better on both sides of the ball this year, but Arizona State hasn't been too bad. Both offense, in fact, are ranked in the Top 20 so the potential is there for a lot of scoring.

Defense never has been a priority in the Pac–12, but Washington is in the Top 20 nationally in that category. I expect Washington to win by, perhaps, a field goal.
TCU at #21 Oklahoma State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: This series began nearly a century before these teams became conference rivals.

OSU won at home last year. This year, the game remains in Stillwater, where OSU has lost to TCU only once since 1948.

TCU has a better defense but a considerably worse offense. That might be a problem.

I think it will be a close game, and I will pick Oklahoma State to win it.
#23 Northern Illinois at Central Michigan: If Central Michigan wins this game, the series will be tied.

And Central Michigan does have the advantage on defense, which really isn't saying much. Neither team has a great defense.

On offense, though, Northern Illinois has a decisive advantage. NIU is ranked 14th in the nation; Central Michigan is 105th.

I think Northern Illinois will win by at least a touchdown.
#25 Wisconsin at Illinois, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This is the 80th meeting between these schools, and the series is tied, 36–36–7.

Wisconsin has won seven of the last eight games to pull even with the Illini, who have struggled through a 3–3 campaign so far.

On offense, Wisconsin is ninth in the country; Illinois is 39th, which isn't bad but appears to be no match for Wisconsin's fifth–ranked defense. Defense is clearly Illinois' weakness (the Illini are 102nd in the land).

I pick Wisconsin.

Last week: 12–5

Season: 115–17

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

A Silent Protest in Mexico City

If there was anything that could be said without hesitation about 1968, it would be that it was a year of protests.

The nation had already seen riots in every major city after the assassination of Martin Luther King, clashes in the streets between protestors and police during the Democratic convention in Chicago and a protest at the Miss America pageant in Atlantic City — and those were merely the most prominent. There were countless smaller scale protests throughout the year.

Thus, it really wasn't a surprise when a protest — albeit a silent one — occurred during the Summer Olympics in Mexico City. At least, it shouldn't have been a surprise. Folks were still outraged, though.

There were others who applauded the gesture — and that is what it was, really. A gesture. Not a demonstration. Not a riot.

It was like everything else in 1968. It had a polarizing effect.

On this day in 1968, two black athletes from the United States raised their fists during the playing of the national anthem at the medal ceremony for the 200–meter race. Little is remembered about that race, but much was made at the time of the behavior of two of the athletes during the ceremony.

Gold medalist Tommie Smith raised his right fist, and bronze medalist John Carlos raised his left. The silver medalist, Peter Norman of Australia, did not raise his fist, but he wore a human rights badge on his jacket as did the other two.

At the time, there was much talk of Smith and Carlos' "black power salute," but Smith later insisted in his autobiography that it was actually a "human rights salute."

Originally, the salute was intended to be delivered with Smith and Carlos wearing black gloves, but Carlos left his in the Olympic Village. Norman was the one who suggested that Carlos wear Smith's left–handed glove — and that is the reason why the athletes raised opposite fists.

All three stood in solidarity with each other. When Norman died seven years ago, Smith and Carlos were pallbearers at his funeral.

In 1968, neither probably expected to be alive too much longer. They each received death threats.

For his part, Smith saw nothing negative in what they had done. "We were just human beings who saw a need to bring attention to the inequality in our country," he told a documentary maker. "There was nothing but a raised fist in the air and a bowed head, acknowledging the American flag — not symbolizing a hatred for it."

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Kirk Gibson's Walk-off Home Run

I'm a Los Angeles Dodgers fan. Always have been. I don't really know why. I've never lived in Los Angeles. In fact, I've only been there twice in my life.

I grew up in central Arkansas, which was kind of an extension of St. Louis Cardinals territory. There was a minor league team in Little Rock that was affiliated with the Cardinals for a long time, and, when I was a child, I could always get Cardinals games on my radio. When folks in my hometown went on a summer vacation, nine times out of 10 they went to St. Louis to see a game or two. Heck, even my family did that a couple of times — and no one in my family could be called a Cardinals fan.

It would have been so easy to do as most of my friends did and take the Cardinals as my team. But I guess I wanted to assert my individuality so I picked the Dodgers.

And I have been loyal to the Dodgers ever since.

They haven't always made it easy. Many times, they haven't come close to being in the playoffs. Then, when they have been in the playoffs, they've often found some way to blow it.

They're in the playoffs again this yearm currently facing the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League championship. The Cardinals won the first two games during the weekend, but the Dodgers won Game 3 last night and are hoping to even the series tonight.

I discovered it was a small club, too. that list of Dodger loyalists. I didn't know any other Dodger fans when I was growing up. I met one or two in college, and I met one or two after I finished work on my bachelor's degree so I know that Dodger fans did exist in Arkansas when I lived there. They were just few and far between.

The last time the Dodgers were in the World Series, 25 years ago, I was certain they were going to lose it. They had had a spectacular run that year, beating the favored New York Mets for the National League title, and pitcher Orel Hershiser had had a remarkable year, setting a record for consecutive scoreless innings pitched in the waning weeks of the regular season.

But the foe in the World Series would be the Oakland A's, an intimidating team that had rolled through their American League competition behind the exploits of the so–called "Bash Brothers," Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire. Oakland swept the Boston Red Sox in the AL playoffs that year.

The A's won four more games that season than the Mets did. Their 104–victory total was greater than any American League team except one in nearly 20 years — the 1984 Detroit Tigers, who also won 104 games.

I just felt like the Dodgers couldn't compete with the A's. Neither did most sports observers.

In those days, I was working on the sports staff of a modestly sized afternoon newspaper in north Texas. Game 1 of the World Series was on a Saturday night, the one day of the week that a morning edition was prepared — for delivery on Sunday morning. Everyone on the staff was at work from about 3 in the afternoon until midnight.

The game began around 7 that night, and I timed my dinner break so I could run home and start my VCR with the first pitch. That way, I knew I could watch the game later.

As it was being played, though, I tried to monitor it from my desk, which was in view of the newsroom TV (there was no commercial internet to consult in 1988 — I had access to the sports wire, of course, and it provided score updates, but details were sketchy until game accounts began to move). From time to time, people came in from the backshop to ask about the score, and, for much of the evening, it seemed things were going to play out about as expected.

Things weren't going well for the Dodgers. They took a 2–0 lead in the first inning but immediately surrendered it to Oakland when the A's scored four runs in the top of the second.

The Dodgers added a run in the sixth but trailed, 4–3, in the bottom of the ninth.

Kirk Gibson had been the offensive star of the season for the Dodgers, but he was hobbled by injuries to both legs and had not started the game that night. However, in the ninth inning, he decided to make himself available for pinch–hitting duty and came to bat with one on and two out.

What followed was so implausible, so dramatic that no novelist or screen writer could have gotten away with writing it.

Oakland's ace reliever, Dennis Eckersley, was on the mound. No other reliever in the majors had as many saves as Eckersley did that year. Oakland fans regarded him as automatic — and rightfully so.

The count was full, there was a runner at second, and Eckersley threw a slider. Gibson swung, connected and drilled it over the fence.

Most people, when asked what they remember about that moment, will tell you they remember Gibson pumping his right arm in jubilation as he circled the bases.

And I remember that, too. (It was the crowning touch on a moment in baseball history that has truly become iconic in the last quarter of a century. It is always shown in baseball's postseason, along with the clip that is arguably the Dodgers' lowest moment as a team — the Giants' Bobby Thomson's walk–off homer in the deciding game of the National League playoffs against the Dodgers in 1951.)

But what I remember most about that moment is watching Gibson's painful run around the bases. And I use the word run generously here. It wasn't really a run. It was more of a walk that was intended to be a run, but it just didn't work out. Sometimes it was a limp.

Kind of gave a new meaning to the term walk–off. Gibson's spirit was willing, but the flesh was weak.

But, when you hit a home run, you don't get extra points — or credit — for running around the bases at a record clip. All you've got to do is touch each base — especially the last one.

And that's what Gibson did. The fact that it took him longer than usual to do it simply meant Dodger fans had more time to savor the moment — and A's fans had to suffer through it longer.

By the way, Gibson played for the '84 Tigers.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

The First Impossible Dream

These are heady days to be a Dodger fan. I know. I've been a Dodger fan since I was a kid.

Last night, the Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals went 13 innings in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series. It was a tough loss for the Dodgers, 3–2, but Dodger fans are encouraged by the knowledge that their ace, Clayton Kershaw, is scheduled to pitch Game 2 tonight.

I'm not worried. This championship series has begun in much the same way the one in 1988 did.

The Dodgers haven't always lived up to my expectations — but, I will admit, my expectations are always high. I always expect them to compete for a berth in the World Series, and I have usually been disappointed. In my memory, the Dodgers have only played in a handful of World Series — and they've only won two.

The first time they won it all was marred by a strike that wiped out about one–third of the season and forced the major leagues to go to an unconventional playoff arrangement.

The second one came 25 years ago this month, and the victory that wrapped up the National League pennant came on this day in 1988 when the Dodgers won the seventh and final playoff game with the New York Mets.

When the National League Championship Series began, most observers thought it was a foregone conclusion that the Mets would win. They dominated the Dodgers during the regular season — and I do mean dominated. As I recall, the Dodgers only beat the Mets once that season.

But as they wrapped up the regular season, pitcher Orel Hershiser set a record for most consecutive scoreless innings pitched, and the Dodgers seemed to be gathering momentum.

Still, just about every baseball expert spoke of the N.L. crown as being destined for New York. Practically no one gave the Dodgers much of a chance of winning.

At first, it seemed they were right. After facing Hershiser for eight scoreless innings, the Mets rallied from a 2–0 deficit with a three–run ninth against reliever Jay Howell in the opener and took a 1–0 lead in the best–of–seven series. I remember watching that game. That ninth inning gave me such a bad case of heartburn I thought I would never get any sleep that night.

But the Dodgers won the second game the next night to even things up as the series moved to New York for the weekend.

New York won that third game, which was postponed by rain, then the Dodgers evened things up in the fourth game. At the time, I was making one of my whirlwind trips to Little Rock on my days off. The time would come when I couldn't do that anymore, but in October 1988, I still made trips back from Texas to visit my friends — and, when I did, I often stayed with my friend Steve.

He wasn't working that Monday, which may have been the reason why I chose those two days off for a trip. I really don't remember now. Anyway, the Dodgers and Mets were scheduled to play that Monday afternoon. The winner would go back to Los Angeles with a 3–2 lead needing only one more win to advance to the World Series.

Steve and I cheered as the Dodgers rolled to a 7–4 win — Steve was a Cardinals fan and, consequently, a devoted hater of the Mets — and I drove back to Texas that afternoon sorry (as always) to be leaving my friends but eager for the next night's game.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers lost that sixth game to the Mets, setting up a winner–take–all showdown 25 years ago tonight.

Hershiser was on the mound for L.A. and he went the distance, characteristically shutting out the Mets in a 6–0 triumph.

When the final out was in the books and the Dodgers had officially won the National League pennant, Hershiser did something I will never forget. He took a step, maybe two, and knelt for a moment of silent meditation before being swarmed by his jubilant teammates.

I made a video tape of that game, and I watched parts of it over and over again. But I probably watched those few seconds of Hershiser immediately after Game Seven ended more than anything else.

It summed up how I felt on that occasion.

It was an impossible dream that came true.

But beating the Mets was only the first impossible dream for the Dodgers. The next was, perhaps, even more formidable. It would require them to beat the mighty Oakland A's.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

There's Nothing Quite Like the OU-Texas Game

This is Oklahoma–Texas week, a week that has always been significant in these parts. Frequently, it has had a considerable influence on the rest of the country, too.

Of course, it is always a huge thing here in Dallas. Literally millions of people descend upon this area every year not just for the game but for the state fair, which is always a boost for restaurants and hotels. And then there is OU–Texas weekend, which provides a boost upon a boost.

In fact, it is such an economic boost that there have been efforts to duplicate OU–Texas weekend on other weekends during the fair. The fair can't bring in OU and Texas every weekend, but it has brought in other regional teams for games. And that has As I have written here before, I grew up in Arkansas, and I always knew people who went to the OU–Texas game when I was growing up. Of course, in those days, both teams usually were ranked going into the game — this year, only Oklahoma is ranked.

In Arkansas, we knew that (nearly all the time) the Razorbacks would face Texas the next week, and we usually hoped that Texas would suffer an especially draining defeat to the Sooners — partly because, well, it was Texas, and partly because we figured if the Longhorns were emotionally distracted by the previous game, they couldn't prepare adequately for the next one.

That particular strategy never seemed to work, though, and I wouldn't recommend it to Texas' opponent next week — except there isn't one. Texas has next week off.

The Longhorns might be hoping that the Sooners will be distracted by their game next week with in–state rival (and idle this week) #22 Oklahoma State. But I lived in Oklahoma for four years, and I know that won't happen. OU's fans will never let the Sooners forget that this is Texas Week; I'm sure the same must be true in Austin.

Consequently, OU–Texas always has an intensity that is unlike any other game I have seen. Some rivalries are similar, but there is nothing quite like the OU–Texas game.

There's no denying it's lost some of its luster.

As Randy Galloway of the Fort Worth Star–Telegram points out, the spotlight doesn't shine as brightly on this game as it once did — but there's still plenty of pressure to win. Embattled Texas coach Mack Brown is said — by some — to be on the brink of being fired, which prompts this from Galloway ...

"With the Sooners as a two–touchdown favorite, if that spread is covered by mid–afternoon on Saturday, the immediate question becomes this: Will the lights be turned out on Mack before supper?"

Idle: #4 Ohio State, #6 Florida State, #13 Miami (Fla.), #21 Fresno State, #22 Oklahoma State

Today

Rutgers at #8 Louisville, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As conference rivals, these schools have faced each other every year since 2005.

But their series predates that, and Rutgers won four meetings between 1976 and 1986. Louisville has won the last three in a row.

Michael Grant of USA Today writes that it is a "rivalry of note." Be that as it may — and, for all I know, tonight's game will be a good one — I don't think it has the history — yet — to deserve that designation.

Louisville's offense gets all the headlines, but it is the defense that is ranked third in the nation. The offense is ranked 18th. Of course, it is reasonable to observe that Louisville doesn't play a high–caliber schedule, and there certainly is truth in that.

Tonight's opponent is probably as rough as it will get for Louisville (well, with the possible exception of the Nov. 16 showdown with currently unbeaten Houston). Even so, I pick Louisville.

Saturday

#1 Alabama at Kentucky, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: It's a good thing for Kentucky this game is being played in Lexington.

The Wildcats have never won in Tuscaloosa. They only managed a tie back in 1939. But, in Lexington, the Wildcats actually have beaten the Crimson Tide twice — in 1922 and 1997.

Meanwhile, Alabama has beaten Kentucky 35 times. It's been practically automatic since 1940 — well, except for coach Mike DuBose, who was running the football team in 1997.

This year, both teams have been better on defense than offense, but Alabama's been better than Kentucky in both categories.

Alabama has frequently shut out Kentucky. I don't think that will happen this time, but I do think Alabama will win by a couple of touchdowns.
#2 Oregon at #16 Washington, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports: A lot of people have been prematurely picking Oregon to be in the national championship game with Alabama in January, but there are still a few formalities.

Alabama still needs to defeat LSU — and then the SEC East representative in the SEC's championship game.

And Oregon has a few obstacles to face as well — one of which is this weekend's game with Washington. In the weeks ahead, the Ducks will have to face #11 UCLA and #5 Stanford as well as unranked (but still formidable) Washington State and Oregon State.

Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated writes that the resurgent Huskies need "only apply the finishing touch by beating an elite opponent."

If not for the Huskies' ranking, the Ducks might be lulled into a crippling sense of complacency. After all, Oregon has beaten Washington nine straight times, sometimes by ridiculously lopsided margins (52–21 last year, 53–16 in 2010, 44–10 in 2008), but this is a series that predates World War I. Washington has the all–time edge, 51–38–4.

And Washington's program has the upward momentum right now. Oregon has been near the top lately, but Washington has struggled to go 7–6 the last three years (following a seemingly endless stretch of losing seasons). I wrote a few weeks ago (just before the Huskies beat a then–ranked Boise State squad) that I thought Washington was poised for a breakout season. So far, I'm right. The Huskies are 4–1 with their only loss being to Stanford last week.

Everyone knows Oregon has a great offense; it is ranked second in the country. But did you know Washington's offense is ranked fifth? On defense, the advantage belongs to Washington (10th in the nation), but Oregon is still quite good (21st).

It could add up to the most entertaining game of the weekend — but, actually, I think that of several matchups on the weekend schedule. And I pick Oregon to win this one — but just barely.
Boston College at #3 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: I guess Boston College has been something of a thorn in Clemson's side.

The series is close; in fact, since the teams have been conference rivals, each has won four times, and, if Boston College wins on Saturday, the series at Clemson will be tied, just like the series at Boston College, which would mean the difference between the teams would be Clemson's Cotton Bowl victory over Boston College in 1940.

But this season's numbers suggest that won't happen. Clemson's 14th–ranked offense, led by quarterback Tajh Boyd, looks capable of handling Boston College's 78th–ranked defense. And, when Boston College has the ball, Clemson should have no trouble.

I think Clemson will win by at least two touchdowns.
#5 Stanford at Utah, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Over the years, these teams have met four times but never as conference rivals.

Stanford is returning to Utah for the first time in nearly 20 years — since Stanford won in its only trip to the Utah campus.

Stanford's offense is only ranked 66th. Statistically, Utah's is actually better (ranked 27th). On defense, Stanford has the edge (ranked 49th); Utah's defense is ranked 70th. Obviously, defenses aren't likely to make much of a statement in this game.

Stanford should win by a touchdown.
#25 Missouri at #7 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Missouri has never beaten Georgia, but the series only consists of two games, anyway — the 1960 Orange Bowl and their first meeting as SEC rivals last year.

Georgia will be hard for Missouri to stop. With quarterback Aaron Murray (currently the seventh–best passer in the country) at the controls, the Bulldogs are 11th in the country in offense. Stopping them would be a challenge for a good defense, but Missouri's, ranked 76th in the nation, is mediocre at best.

Statistically, though, Georgia's defense is only marginally better and faces an equally daunting task since Missouri is seventh in offense. The Tigers' quarterback, James Franklin, is the nation's 20th–best passer, and he is dangerous, scattering his passes to a wide range of receivers, but it can be argued that Missouri hasn't really been tested yet. The Bulldogs have, which leads me to believe that Georgia will win, perhaps by a narrow margin.
#9 Texas A&M at Ole Miss, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: If Ole Miss had beaten Alabama a couple of weeks ago, this might have been a match between two Top 25 teams.

But Ole Miss was blanked by Alabama and staggered through a loss to Auburn the following week. I really have to think the first loss contributed heavily to the second.

The Aggies also lost to Alabama in September, but they had a week off to regroup. Not that they needed one. They hammered SMU and Arkansas in the weeks after the loss to the Crimson Tide — and should be well rested for their trip to Oxford this weekend.

Historically, the Aggies have never lost to Ole Miss. They made their first–ever trip to Oxford last year, and they left with a three–point victory.

That was in early October — before Johnny Manziel became Johnny Football.

I expect another close one this year. Texas A&M's offense is ranked third in the nation and should be able to handle Ole Miss at least part of the time, even though the Rebels are ranked 40th in defense.

The Ole Miss offense isn't nearly as good (ranked 52nd), but the Aggies' defense leaves a lot to be desired (ranked 112th).

I anticipate a high–scoring game with Texas A&M logging a narrow win.
#17 Florida at #10 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This has the makings of a truly entertaining game.

Florida has the second–best defense in the nation. I watched it strangle my alma mater, Arkansas, on Saturday night — which, I'll grant you, is not necessarily a difficult assignment for most teams this year — and I had hoped that the loss of the Gators' star defensive player would make it easier for offenses to move the ball. No suck luck, at least for Arkansas. The Razorbacks scored a touchdown early, but Florida adjusted and smothered the Hogs from that point on.

LSU's offense will be more of a challenge. It is ranked 23rd in the nation, and it is led by Zach Mettenberger, the fourth–best quarterback in the country, and Jeremy Hill, the nation's 11th–best runner.

This is really a tough game to pick — and could go either way. I'll go with Florida.
California at #11 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 or ESPNU: This is a match of really good offenses.

UCLA's offense is ranked fourth in the nation, thanks primarily to running back Jordon James, but Cal is ranked 17th.

However, Cal has one of the worst defenses in the country, which leads me to believe UCLA will prevail.
#12 Oklahoma vs. Texas at Dallas, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: I guess I have about said all that really needs to be said about this game.

And anything I didn't say is surely covered in the dozens of books that have been written about these programs.

It's funny how far the mighty can fall, isn't it? Not long ago, Texas was playing for national championships. Now the Longhorns are underdogs to their greatest rival, and their coach may be struggling for survival. The point spread that favors OU is probably pretty accurate. I think Oklahoma will win.
#14 South Carolina at Arkansas, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This series didn't exist when I was a student at Arkansas. It began the first year Arkansas was a member of the Southeastern Conference, and the teams have met annually since.

Arkansas has won more than 60% of the games with South Carolina, but the Gamecocks won last year. The Razorbacks, on the other hand, have won the last three times the teams have met in Arkansas. In fact, the Razorbacks have only lost twice to the Gamecocks when playing at home.

I think that will change this year. Arkansas may be able to put up a struggle for a half or so, but the absence of depth on Arkansas' roster is likely to give South Carolina the victory.
#15 Baylor at Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Top–rated quarterback Bryce Petty leads Baylor's top–ranked offense into Manhattan, Kan.

That is an important point to remember. The Bears have fared pretty well when they have played the Wildcats in Waco, but they've never won in four trips to Manhattan.

Actually, the series has favored the home team in the last six meetings between these schools. The last time the road team won was in 2002.

Unless the offense suffers a setback, though, I expect Baylor to win a close one.
#18 Michigan at Penn State, 4 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The historical record doesn't offer much insight.

Historically, Michigan is just as likely to win on the road as at home against Penn State.

Penn State has won the last three meetings, but all three were with Joe Paterno on the sideline. This will be the first time someone other than Paterno has led the Nittany Lions into battle with Michigan.

Both defenses are in the Top 20; the offenses have been much less impressive.

I think Michigan will win by a touchdown in a relatively low–scoring contest.
#19 Northwestern at Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This series goes back to 1892.

Over the years, Northwestern has enjoyed its successes, but Wisconsin has dominated the series. Of late — that is to say, in the last six years — the trend has favored the home team.

The Badgers are unranked, but they have performed better on both sides of the ball than Northwestern. As always seems to be the case, the ground game carries Wisconsin. Melvin Gordon is averaging nearly 140 yards rushing per game, and Northwestern's defense is giving up 144 yards on the ground per game.

I predict a low–scoring game — and a Wisconsin victory.
Iowa State at #20 Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports: Texas Tech has dominated this series since the teams first met in 1967, but Iowa State has won two of the last three meetings.

In fact, Iowa State got its first–ever win in Lubbock the last time the teams played there in 2011.

But I don't expect a repeat. Tech's offense is ranked 13th, and I feel confident that the Red Raiders will score enough points to win.

I really don't think it will be lopsided, though. Texas Tech should win by six or seven.
Akron at #23 Northern Illinois, 4 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Northern Illinois is back in the rankings — first appearance this season, I believe — and NIU's first assignment as a ranked team is against conference rival Akron.

Northern Illinois is undefeated, but that really isn't as impressive as it sounds — well, except for a 31–point win over Big Ten team Purdue. Even so, NIU has the 12th–best offense (statistically) in the country.

I think Northern Illinois will win — probably by about 10 points.
Pittsburgh at #24 Virginia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Pittsburgh enjoys a four–game winning streak in this series, but this year's game is being played on Tech's turf — where Pitt last lost to Tech back in 2000.

Tech also has the fifth–best defense in the land (Pitt's is 54th). Neither offense has been particularly impressive, and my guess is that Tech's defensive prowess will be decisive. I pick Virginia Tech.

Last week: 18–3

Season: 103–12

Tomato Cans

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Looking Ahead to the National Championship Game

Friday, November 1, 2013

When Seabiscuit Won the Match of the Century

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Every Saturday is a Chance for Something Memorable in College Football

Saturday, October 26, 2013

It's Put Up or Shut Up Time in College Football

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Another Great Weekend On Tap for College Football Fans

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

A Silent Protest in Mexico City

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Kirk Gibson's Walk-off Home Run

Saturday, October 12, 2013

The First Impossible Dream

Thursday, October 10, 2013

There's Nothing Quite Like the OU-Texas Game

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