Off to a Flying Start

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In general, I have to be pleased with my first week of college football predictions. I got one of my upset specials and, for awhile, it looked like I might get both. The other ones I missed were outcomes that most people probably missed — Houston over Oklahoma, Texas over Notre Dame, Texas A&M over UCLA — so it's hard to feel bad about those predictions.

Last week is already being called the greatest opening weekend in college football history, but we don't have much of an encore this week. There are no games between ranked teams this week, and most look like the ranked team should beat the unranked one with ease. After all, every ranked team that is in action this week is playing at home — except for #13 Louisville in tonight's game at Syracuse.

There are a couple of exceptions. Virginia Tech is unranked, but the Hokies seem likely to give #17 Tennessee a run for its money. And I hope that my alma mater, Arkansas, is competitive with #15 TCU.

But I have to be realistic about that last one. Maybe Arkansas is good enough to challenge TCU, but the Razorbacks haven't proven that yet, especially not in the wake of last week's 21–20 win over Louisiana Tech. On the other hand, TCU got past South Dakota State by 59–41. No defense in that one.

Idle: #7 Stanford, #12 Michigan State

Friday

• #13 Louisville at Syracuse, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: From 1985 to 2005, these teams faced each other about once every five years on average. But they have met every year since 2005, and this will be their 15th meeting overall. Louisville leads the all–time series 8–6.
  
  Syracuse could knot the record at home with a win, but Syracuse has fallen on hard times. I'm inclined to pick Louisville.

Saturday

• Western Kentucky at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams have met twice before, and Alabama won both by a combined score of 76–7.
  
  Clearly this is a payday for Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have no thoughts of winning. That's good because they won't. I take Alabama.
• Troy at #2 Clemson, 11:30 a.m. on ACC Network: Clemson won its only previous meeting with Troy in 2011 by a score of 43–19.
  
  Clemson struggled at times with Auburn the other night, but I figure the Tigers will have plenty in the tank when they take on Troy. Clemson should win.
• Charleston Southern at #3 Florida State, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network: There really isn't much to say about this one. Florida State appears to have one of the best teams in the country, and the Seminoles are playing at home, where they hardly ever lose.
  
  I am convinced Florida State will win this one.
• Tulsa at #4 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is the first meeting between these schools, but Ohio State is a lot like Florida State in the sense that the Buckeyes appear to have one of the best teams in the land and they're playing at home. Need I say more?
  
  I choose Ohio State.
• Central Florida at #5 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Like the Tulsa–Ohio State game, this is the first meeting between these schools.
  
  Michigan is tough to beat at home, and I doubt that Central Florida is up to it. I pick Michigan.
• Lamar at #6 Houston, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: Seeing Houston beat Oklahoma last week reminded me of when I was young and Houston joined the Southwest Conference. No one thought much of the Cougars then — then they emerged as one of the nation's best teams for several years.
  
  The same thing might be happening now. Houston has leaped into the Top 10 with its win over Oklahoma, and I really don't think Lamar can stop Houston's momentum.
  
  I choose Houston.
• Idaho at #8 Washington, 4 p.m. (Central) on Pac 10 Network: Washington has dominated this series, winning 27 of 28 games (the other one was a tie back in 1938). All 28 games have been played at Washington — as will the 29th tomorrow.
  
  I have heard nothing to suggest that it will change. I pick Washington.
• Nicholls State at #9 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I'm not entirely sure about the Bulldogs, but I am sure they can handle Nicholls State.
  
  My pick is Georgia.
• Akron at #10 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Wisconsin won the previous two meetings between these schools, but the scores weren't lopsided. The average score in those games was Wisconsin 43, Akron 24.
  
  That's decisive but not lopsided. Sounds like a likely outcome for this game. I choose Wisconsin.
• Texas–El Paso at #11 Texas, 6 p.m. (Central) on the Longhorn Network: These teams have played twice, once in El Paso. The Longhorns won both times, averaging 53 points to UTEP's 10.
  
  Sounds about right. I pick Texas.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #14 Oklahoma: After last week's season–opening loss, the Sooners are apt to be surly.
  
  OU won its only meeting with Louisiana–Monroe three years ago. The score on that occasion was 34–0. Wouldn't surprise me if the Sooners doubled that.
  
  Oklahoma is clearly the pick.
• Arkansas at #15 TCU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: When I was a child, Arkansas never lost to TCU. Never. Then it happened once. It seldom happened again while the Hogs and the Frogs were in the same conference.
  
  This will be the 69th time these schools have faced each other in football — but the first time as nonconference foes since 1921. The Hogs have won nearly two–thirds of the time — but much has changed in the 25 years since their last encounter. This time, TCU is the team that is ranked. Arkansas is not. In the old days, the Razorbacks were ranked more often than not — and TCU was winless, again more often than not.
  
  I'm tempted to pick Arkansas as an upset special — for old times' sake. But that was then, and this is now. I have to pick TCU.
• Iowa State at #16 Iowa, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This will be the 62nd edition of this battle Iowa football dominance. Since 1977, the winner has received the Cy–Hawk Trophy.
  
  Iowa leads the series by more than 2 to 1, but Iowa State has won three of the last five meetings — including the last two times the game was played at Iowa.
  
  Based on recent history, I will make Iowa State my upset special.
• Virginia Tech vs. #17 Tennessee, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Tennessee leads this series 3–2, but the teams have split their two encounters at neutral sites.
  
  Tennessee didn't look good against Appalachian State last week, so I will make Virginia Tech my second upset special.
• Nevada at #18 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams actually played each other once — in South Bend in 2009. The Irish won 35–0.
  
  Anyone want to bet Notre Dame blanks Nevada again? The pick is Notre Dame.
• Wofford at #19 Ole Miss, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Ole Miss looked pretty good at Florida State — and should look even better in the home opener.
  
  The Rebels won't lose this one. I choose Ole Miss.
• Prairie View A&M at #20 Texas A&M, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: If UCLA couldn't win at Kyle Field, why would Prairie View?
  
  This is a no–brainer. Texas A&M will win.
• Jacksonville State at #21 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Another huge mismatch. LSU lost on the road last week. The Tigers, though, haven't lost a nonconverence game at home since 2002.
  
  They won't lose this time, either. The pick is LSU.
• Central Michigan at #22 Oklahoma State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: This has to be the most uninspiring Top 25 schedule I have ever seen.
  
  Oklahoma State should win easily.
• SMU at #23 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: This is an old Southwest Conference rivalry. It will be the 82nd meeting between these schools, and the all–time series has been quite close. Baylor has 38 wins, SMU has 36, and there have been seven ties.
  
  SMU hasn't beaten Baylor since 1986, the year before SMU began serving the "death penalty."
  
  That is a 12–game winning streak for the Bears. I expect Baylor to make it 13 in a row.
• Virginia at #24 Oregon, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: In their only previous meeting, Oregon crushed Virginia 59–10 on Virginia's home turf. That was three years ago.
  
  This time Oregon is at home. I have to pick Oregon.
• Florida Atlantic at #25 Miami (Fla.), 5 p.m. (Central) on ACC Network: In two previous meetings Miami emerged as a solid winner both times.
  
  No change. I pick Miami.

Last week: 17–4

Overall: 17–4

Last week's upset specials: 1–1

Overall upset specials: 1–1

And We're Back

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The return of the college football season always puts me in mind of my college days at the University of Arkansas.

I lived off campus, but I lived close enough to walk to my classes — unless the weather was just dreadful, and the weather in Fayetteville certainly could be rough, especially in the winter. In late August and early September, of course, inclement weather was not an issue.

I can remember walking through the campus in the afternoons and hearing the sound of pads slapping into each other from the football stadium at the bottom of the hill. If the Razorbacks were scheduled to play at home that weekend, campers started appearing on that hill around Wednesday, and retired alumni could be seen socializing around town at night and sitting in front of their campers by day.

I usually had a ticket to home games, and I enjoyed walking to them and then walking home when they were over. I often figured that I got home before most fans got out of the stadium parking lot. That was good, especially late in the season when it was frequently cold and wet.

Ah, those were the days, my friend.

It isn't as mild in Dallas at this time of year as it tended to be in Fayetteville, but I still feel a sense of continuity when football season begins again. The first ranked teams will be in action tonight.

Today

• Appalachian State at #9 Tennessee, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: You'd think that these schools, located in neighboring states, would have played each other at least once over the years, but this season opener will be a series opener for them.
  
  They've never met before, though, and, at this point in the season, all you really have to go by is head–to–head history. But we don't even have that.
  
  I think Tennessee may be overrated, but the Vols are almost sure to win a game at home against Appalachian State. My pick is Tennessee.
• Charlotte at #19 Louisville, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: See above for the same reasoning and prediction. Louisville should win.

Friday

• Kansas State at #8 Stanford, 8 p.m. (Central) on FS1: And yet one more first–time match. This one, though, matches two teams with recent reputations for success in football. K–State may not be ranked, but it is never wise to underestimate a Bill Snyder–coached team.
  
  I don't think that Stanford is overrated. Neither do I think Stanford will duplicate last season's surprising season–opening loss to unranked Northwestern. I must take Stanford.
• Furman at #12 Michigan State, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This is most likely a payday for Furman. No expectation of coming away with a win. That is what Michigan State will get out of this game.
• Northwestern State at #23 Baylor: Offseason turmoil has raised many questions about the Baylor program.
  
  Those questions won't be resolved in this game, but Baylor should have enough left, even after defections and coaching changes, to win.

Saturday

• #20 Southern Cal vs. #1 Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These programs have met seven times, twice in bowls, but this is their first meeting in more than 30 years.
  
  Southern Cal beat Bear Bryant twice, both times in Birmingham, which is the only place USC has ever beaten Alabama. This game will be played in Arlington, Texas.
  
  Right now, Alabama is the defending national champion, and the Crimson Tide should remain #1 until they lose. I'm not inclined to think they will lose this game, although Alabama's victory margin might be small.
• #2 Clemson at Auburn, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams first played when Teddy Roosevelt was in the White House. They don't meet every year, but they have played 48 times in all, and Auburn has been the winner more than 70% of the time.
  
  However, Clemson has won the last two meetings — in 2011 and 2012 — so I suppose the momentum is with Clemson. But few, if any, of the players on either side were on the rosters when the teams last met on Sept. 1, 2012.
  
  Clemson is coming off a losing appearance in the national championship game. Auburn was 7–6 last year. They had two common opponents and went 1–1 against them. They both beat Louisville and both lost to Alabama. Auburn beat Louisville by seven points; Clemson beat Louisville by three. But Clemson only lost to Alabama by five points whereas Auburn lost the Iron Bowl by 16 points.
  
  I'll take Clemson.
• #5 LSU vs. Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These schools have met three times, most recently in 2014 when LSU prevailed in Houston. This one is at a neutral site, too, but it's much closer to the University of Wisconsin — fabled Lambeau Field in Green Bay.
  
  The schools' only common opponent last year was Alabama — and both lost to the eventual national champions. Wisconsin lost by 18 points; LSU lost by 14.
  
  Not much else to go by. Judging by the rankings, LSU is the better team, but Wisconsin should have homefield advantage. As an upset special, I will take Wisconsin.
• Bowling Green at #6 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This is the fifth time these schools have faced each other — most recently 10 years ago. Ohio State has won all four of the previous matches, which, like this year's edition, were played at Ohio State.
  
  I have no reason to expect a different outcome this year. Ohio State is the pick.
• Hawaii at #7 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have met twice before, both times in Hawaii, and the Wolverines won both games. This time they're meeting in the Big House.
  
  Michigan should win easily.
• South Dakota State at #13 TCU: It's hard to imagine the Horned Frogs losing at home, especially to someone like South Dakota State.
  
  Stranger things have happened, but I still expect TCU to prevail.
• Rutgers at #14 Washington, 1 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools.
  
  Rutgers has had a reputation for beating big–name opponents, but it's hard to travel three time zones and be at your best.
  
  I pick Washington.
• #3 Oklahoma vs. #15 Houston, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: I know that Houston had a good season last year, but let's face a few facts here.
  
  Oklahoma plays in a power conference. Houston does not.
  
  Oklahoma played in the national playoffs last year. Houston did not.
  
  Oklahoma is a big favorite to return to the playoffs. Houston is not — even if the Cougars go undefeated.
  
  Of course, that could change if Houston wins this game. The teams have met twice, and Oklahoma won both times. They first met in the Sun Bowl on the day after Christmas in 1981. Their second meeting was in Norman in 2004.
  
  This isn't exactly a home game for Houston, but it's close. The game will be played at NRG Stadium, home of the NFL's Houston Texans, who barely existed the last time the Sooners faced the Cougars.
  
  I don't think the location matters, though. The Cougars may well be the better team, but they'll have to prove it, and until they do I take Oklahoma.
• #16 UCLA at Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: These schools have met four times before, and each team has won twice. They haven't met since New Year's Day 1998 in the Cotton Bowl. The Bruins won on that occasion.
  
  Texas A&M hasn't beaten UCLA since 1951, and they have never played in College Station before so this game will be a first. I'm going to pick UCLA to extend its all–time winning streak over the Aggies to three games.
• Miami (Ohio) at #17 Iowa, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have faced each other three times, and Iowa has won all three. Still it has been 13 years since their last meeting. The players for each team were barely in elementary school the last time they played.
  
  I have no special reason for this pick other than rankings and general reputations. I pick Iowa.
• #18 Georgia vs. #22 North Carolina, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools once played each other frequently, but they haven't met since the Gator Bowl on New Year's Eve 1971.
  
  Historically, Georgia usually wins this game. In fact, North Carolina hasn't beaten Georgia since 1963 — three weeks before the Kennedy assassination.
  
  The rankings suggest this will be a good game, and I hope it is. But I'm going to take Georgia because, well, as I say, Georgia usually beats North Carolina (even if they haven't played each other in 45 years).
• Southeastern Louisiana at #21 Oklahoma State: I have no special reason for this pick, either, except for where the game is being played — and the host team's identity.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.
• UC–Davis at #24 Oregon, 4 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: This is clearly one of those games that is meant to be nothing more than a scrimmage for the home team.
  
  Got to take Oregon.
• Massachusetts at #25 Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This is another first–time meeting. I'm not sold on the Gators, but I know that UMass isn't a football school.
  
  Actually, this would have been a great match in basketball at one time.
  
  But this is football and, while I'm not sold on the Gators, I still have to take Florida at home.

Sunday

• #10 Notre Dame at Texas, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I can remember a time when this was a national championship–caliber match. In fact, there was a time when it really was a national championship game — played in the Cotton Bowl, of all places.
  
  This one won't be played in the Cotton Bowl, and it isn't for the national title. But that Cotton Bowl on New Year's Day 1970 was the last time Texas beat Notre Dame. The Irish have beaten the 'Horns five straight times since then, including two subsequent Cotton Bowls, one of which cost Texas a national title. Paybacks really are hell.
  
  I expect Notre Dame to make it six in a row.

Monday

• #11 Ole Miss at #4 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It has been nearly 55 years since the only other time these schools met.
  
  Ole Miss won that one, 33–0, a year before the legendary Johnny Vaught coached the Rebels to a national championship.
  
  I don't know if either of these schools will be playing for the national championship when this season is over, but this game might be the best one of the opening weekend. I ought to take Florida State — if only because the Seminoles are at home, and they haven't lost at home since 2012.
  
  The Rebels, on the other hand, lose on the road about as often as they win — but last year they pulled off one of the big surprises of the season when they won at Alabama for only the second time — ever.
  
  Will lightning strike twice (in a manner of speaking)? In my second upset special, I pick Ole Miss.

It's Time Again for the Summer Games

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When I started writing this blog, I envisioned writing about sports all year, but it has focused primarily on football, boxing and horse racing with other sports tossed in from time to time. And most of my writing on this blog gets done during football season.

I enjoy watching other sports between football seasons, but I don't always feel compelled to write about them.

As always, I am looking forward to the start of football season, now only about four weeks away, but the Summer Olympics will begin tomorrow, and I am looking forward to that, too. It brings back memories of my childhood — when my family would gather in the living room every night for two weeks to share the Olympic experience via TV. We always got to see many exciting, dramatic moments; in between, we got to take tours of faraway places. All without ever having to leave our living room (and without having to pay so much as a dime for it, either, back in those pre–cable and pre–satellite days — but that's a topic for another time).

My mother has been deceased for more than 20 years, but my father is still living, and I look forward to sharing some of those experiences with him over the next two weeks.

The experience has never been the same for me without Mom, though. She loved watching the Olympics. She was totally absorbed in the drama.

She made a production of it when my brother and I were small. That wasn't unusual, though. She always liked to decorate the house with the appropriate holiday theme — you know, red, white and blue for the Fourth of July, pumpkins for Halloween, turkeys for Thanksgiving, all that stuff.

Mom was very creative, anyway. Speaking of Halloween, Mom used to make my Halloween costumes — and my brother's. She was good at it, too.

Something like the Olympics was perfect for her. In addition to the iconic Olympic rings, Mom could work in things that connected to wherever the Olympics were being held. I think she preferred it when they were held somewhere of which she knew little or nothing — it was like giving an artist a blank canvas — and that wasn't easy because my parents did a lot of traveling when they were young. My father did his Ph.D. work in Scotland, then my parents spent five years as missionaries in Africa. When they returned to the U.S., they kind of took the long way home, traveling through Europe before finally leaving for the United States.

I was with them when they returned to the U.S., having been born about a year earlier. When I was a teenager, my father got a kick out of telling me that I visited two dozen countries before I was 2 years old, then he would ask, "Do you remember that?"

Sure, Dad.

I've seen pictures of myself at different stops we made along the way, including a couple of places where the Summer Games had been held in the past. As an adult, I have visited some American cities where past Summer Games have been held. I have even visited Athens, the ancient cradle of the Olympics. But I've never been to a city that was hosting the Games when I was there.

That isn't an item for my "bucket list." As a matter of fact, I don't really have a bucket list.

If I did, I guess going to the Kentucky Derby would be on it. Or maybe the Super Bowl (when the Packers were playing in it).

In the meantime, I'll enjoy the Games from Rio.

Muhammad Ali

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"Don't count the days. Make the days count."

Muhammad Ali (1942–2016)

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Nothing lasts forever.

Muhammad Ali himself said that when he retired from boxing. I knew at the time that he was right, but I didn't want it to be true. I wanted him to continue to box — and to win — just as I had wanted Roger Staubach to continue playing football and how, many years later, I wanted Brett Favre to continue playing.

I knew he wouldn't live forever, either, but, again, I didn't want it to be true. His death yesterday affected people everywhere, even people attending a Paul Simon performance.

Somehow, though, it seems appropriate that he should be taken from us this year of all years — when so many have already been taken. And when many more, no doubt, will be taken from us before this year is over. It seems to be that kind of year, a deviation from the norm from politics to mortality. The political process has been the same, but it has yielded two unusually unpopular nominees.

And mortality is about the same as usual, but it seems to be taking more influential prominent people than it does in an ordinary year. Actually, that probably isn't true. It just seems that way.

Muhammad Ali was a human magnet, drawing people to him more through the force of his personality than his boxing skills (although they played a role in it, too, make no mistake about that).

The thing about magnets, though, is that they repel as well as attract. And Muhammad Ali certainly repelled a lot of people. It was a divisive time in America, the late '60s. From the vantage point of half a century later — and with a black president in the Oval Office — it is easy for those who weren't there to think that the '60s were all about civil rights, but that was really only one issue that divided Americans in those days. The war in Vietnam divided people, too, and it was Ali's refusal to fight in Vietnam that exacerbated the situation.

It was often claimed that Ali said, "No Viet Cong ever called me nigger" as justification for his refusal to be conscripted into the Army, but that isn't what he said.

What he really said was, "My conscience won't let me go shoot my brother or some darker people or some poor hungry people in the mud for big powerful America. And shoot them for what? They never called me nigger. They never lynched me. They didn't put no dogs on me. They didn't rob me of my nationality, rape and kill my mother and father. Shoot them for what? How can I shoot them poor people? Just take me to jail."

There were a lot of people in America who didn't like Ali when he refused to go to Vietnam. They derided him for what they saw as arrogance in the ring and cowardice outside of it. Some people attributed that to racism, just as some people today dismiss opposition to Barack Obama's policies as thinly veiled racism, too. I didn't buy it then because I knew many people in my small hometown in Arkansas who supported the war and spoke critically of antiwar demonstrators, too, and most of whom were white.

Race can be a convenient scapegoat, and I have no doubt it plays a role for some people but not all. For most of the people in my hometown in the late '60s and early '70s, race really had nothing to do with it. It was all about politics.

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When Ali fought Joe Frazier for the first time, in what was widely called the Fight of the Century, it became more than just a fight for many people. Folks who were against the war tended to support Ali, and folks who supported the war effort tended to support Frazier.

That, too, was called racism by many people, which never made sense to me, either. How could it be racist? Both Ali and Frazier were black.

Maybe it is true what they say about time healing all wounds, though, because I have heard nothing said about that time in Ali's life and career — except for the facts that he refused to serve and was stripped of his title. Nothing more than that.

Even from people who probably would be expected to be critical of Ali for his politics.

Remarkably, considering his chosen profession, Ali was a peacemaker. At the very least, that seems odd for a professional fighter, doesn't it? In trying to resolve this contradiction, comedian George Carlin described Ali's refusal to serve this way: "That's where I draw the line. I'll beat 'em up, but I don't wanna kill 'em."

Now, at the end of his life, Ali is being remembered for his pursuit of peace after his violent career. Part of his refusal to fight in Vietnam was grounded in his recent conversion to Islam, and he maintained his core beliefs throughout his life.

Last December, after the shootings in San Bernardino, California, Ali told NBC News, "I am a Muslim and there is nothing Islamic about killing innocent people in Paris, San Bernardino or anywhere else in the world. ... True Muslims know that the ruthless violence of so–called Islamic Jihadists goes against the very tenets of our religion. ... We as Muslims have to stand up to those who use Islam to advance their own personal agenda. ... They have alienated many from learning about Islam. True Muslims know or should know that it goes against our religion to try and force Islam on anybody."

There was a time when Ali was regarded as the most recognizable man in the world. Many saw him as an heroic figure.

Heroes usually need a reliable sidekick (i.e., Robin to Batman) or an arch rival (here I guess Larry Bird and Magic Johnson would fit the bill). Solitary heroes tend to have short lives in the spotlight.

In the ring, I suppose, Ali will always be remembered for his three epic fights with Frasier. As for sidekick ...

Broadcaster Howard Cosell was Ali's reliable sidekick, I suppose. He wasn't part of Ali's entourage, his traveling roadshow, but he always seemed to be ringside, providing the commentary at Ali's fights. It wasn't unusual to see the rich and the famous attending Ali's fights, but Cosell owed much of his fame and personal fortune to his association with Ali — as well as his Monday Night Football gig.

If you ever saw Cosell interviewing Ali, you could see what a symbiotic relationship they had. Ali had considerable skills and probably could have succeeded without Cosell. Cosell, though, might have found it much more difficult to succeed alone, being limited to only four months per year of Monday Night Football and Dandy Don.

Together they were an iconic pair, and now they're both gone.

Time doesn't march on, folks. It sprints.

Can Nyquist Go Undefeated?

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I love to watch horse racing.

Going to the races at Oaklawn in Hot Springs was one of my favorite off–day activities when I worked on the sports desk at the Arkansas Gazette. I was off Mondays and Tuesdays in those days; while there was much about that schedule that I disliked the rest of the time, I really preferred it during racing season. If the weather was nice, a Monday or a Tuesday at Oaklawn Park was impossible to beat. The crowds were small so I didn't have to stand in line to do anything like place a bet, buy a beer, get a sandwich or use the restroom. The horses were the dregs of their stables, but that just made the races more interesting.

I like to watch the Triple Crown races, too, but I have always watched them on TV. I have never been to any of the Triple Crown races, but it is always fun for me simply to watch the TV coverage. The fact that I haven't seen one in person hasn't bothered me.

I don't have a bucket list — but if I did, going to Churchill Downs on Derby Day would be on it. I wouldn't even have to go inside and watch the race. I'd rather watch the people. That was probably my favorite thing to do at Oaklawn, and, judging from what I typically see in the pre–race TV coverage on Derby Day, the people at Churchill Downs are always 10 times — nay, 100 times — more interesting than the folks at Oaklawn ever were.

Sometimes the races are pretty good, too.

Like the one that was run yesterday.

It was an exciting race, ultimately won by the 3–to–1 favorite, an undefeated horse named Nyquist. If Nyquist wins the Triple Crown, he will be the second Triple Crown winner to have an unblemished record. The first was Seattle Slew.

Conventional wisdom says Nyquist probably will win the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness, which will be run a week from this Saturday (May 21). The distances of the Derby and the Preakness are the same, and the races tend to attract the same fields. There are variables, of course. Sometimes jockeys change, sometimes horses drop out and new ones are inserted, and sometimes the conditions are different (one race may be on a fast track, the other may be on a sloppy track).

But generally speaking the Derby winner is the favorite and usually prevails.

If that holds true this time, then it will be the Belmont, which will be held on June 11, that will make or break Nyquist. It is often called the "Test of Champions" because it is considerably longer than the first two Triple Crown races. Indeed, it is probably the longest race any of the horses that compete in it will ever run.

Thus, while the first two races of the Triple Crown favor speed horses, the final race favors endurance horses. Most horses fall in one category or the other. It is rare to find a combination of speed and endurance within the same horse — but those horses that do combine them usually win the Triple Crown.

With yesterday's victory, Nyquist has established himself as a speed horse on a big–time stage. I expect him to duplicate his achievement in Maryland in two weeks.

Then the question will be whether he is one of those rare horses that combine speed and endurance. The answer will come on the track at the Belmont.

That Masters Meltdown

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I watched Jordan Spieth's inexplicable implosion at the Masters last Sunday with my father.

What we saw is still difficult, a week later, to wrap one's brain around.

I am not a golfer, and neither is Dad, but we enjoy watching the Masters. There is more to it than that for Dad, though. When my father and mother were newlyweds, they lived in Atlanta while he did his graduate work at Emory University. Atlanta is more than a two–hour drive from Augusta, and I doubt that my parents ever attended the Masters. Still, being in the vicinity of something big like that makes you feel connected to it.

My mother has been deceased for many years, but watching the Masters on television brings back pleasant memories for my father. Even if he never spent any time on the golf course, the pastoral scenes remind him, I am sure, of pleasant spring days he and my mother spent in Georgia as young newlyweds beginning their adventure together.

For the last year scenes from the Masters are certain to have brought back pleasant memories for Spieth, too. After all, he was the defending Masters champion. In the future, however, his memories are bound to be bittersweet — at best.

It all comes down to his quadruple bogey on No. 12. That's right — quadruple bogey.

No one would have expected it. Spieth won the Masters last year, matching Tiger Woods' record–setting performance in the 1997 Masters, and led by five strokes midway through the final round.

As I say, I'm not a golfer. I'm not even a golf fan — but I worked for several years on the sports staff of a large metro newspaper. For most of that time, my days off were Monday and Tuesday so I was almost always in the office on the days that final rounds of major tournaments were played.

I was in charge of the sports section the day that Jack Nicklaus won his sixth and final Masters in 1986. People often speak of that tournament, and it was natural for that tournament to be mentioned during this year's Masters since it was the 30th anniversary and all. But a lot of people forget that he might not have won if Greg Norman hadn't bogeyed the 18th hole. All he needed was a par to force a playoff — and history may well have been changed.

Few people gave it much thought, even at the time, probably because of the drama of Nicklaus winning the Masters at the age of 46. But Norman, who was 31 at the time, called it the "greatest regret" of his professional career.

The year before that, one of my colleagues was in charge of the section on the day of the final round of the Masters. Curtis Strange started rough, found his groove in the midddle rounds and had a two–stroke lead at one point in the final round but found water hazards on a couple of holes and lost to Bernhard Langer.

Talk about a long Strange trip — but not as strange as Spieth's.

As you can see I am no stranger to Masters meltdowns. But none was ever as spectacular as Spieth's.

Still he's the early favorite at the U.S. Open in June.

Who Will It Be, Alabama or Clemson?

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And now, we are down to the final game — #1 Clemson vs. #2 Alabama. You can see the game on ESPN Monday night starting at 7:30 p.m. (Central). It will be played in University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

My record in the bowl season was good but not spectacular. I was 10–6 in my picks. That is a .625 accuracy percentage. As I say, it was good. Not great.

But I must say that I am rather proud of my record in the college football semifinals. I picked Clemson over Oklahoma and Alabama over Michigan State. Right — in both cases. Neither game was even close.

Now the tough part. Picking which one will win the national title. I expect this one to be closer, much closer.

One thing I can say without fear of contradiction is Alabama's been there — frequently — in recent seasons. It seems like it's been that way all my life. Oh, sure, I know Alabama has been through dry spells, but very little really seems to have changed since I was a boy and Bear Bryant was on the Alabama sideline. Bryant brought six national titles to Tuscaloosa, and Alabama fans grew up during his tenure with a kind of sense of entitlement that is still there. Call it Alabama affluenza.

If Alabama wasn't in the national championship conversation, so the thinking seemed to go, it was an off year. But that wouldn't last long. It never did.

The Bear never had a Heisman Trophy winner, either. Nick Saban has had two, and one of them, Derrick Henry, is on the current roster.

Yet, in spite of all that, Clemson's offense is ranked higher than Alabama's. Clemson has the sixth–ranked offense in the nation. Alabama's 35th–ranked offense is respectable, not spectacular.

Both teams are very good on defense. Alabama's defense, which always gets attention, is ranked third, and Clemson's is ranked 13th.

My guess is that it will be a defensive game, and Alabama's defense will be tested by Clemson's sophomore QB, Deshaun Watson, and sophomore running back, Wayne Gallman. Gallman headlines the 11th–best run offense in the nation.

That is where the game is likely to be decided. The Crimson Tide has been tough against the run all year; in fact, Alabama is ranked #1 in the land against the run, which suggests that Clemson may struggle to score.

If Clemson does struggle on the ground, the Tigers might turn to their passing game, which was #19 in the nation. Alabama's defense was ranked #31 against the pass so there may be some opportunity there. Watson was 18th in the nation in passing yards, he completed more than 68% of his passes, and he had 31 touchdown strikes — and he was only sacked 13 times. And yet ...

Alabama junior defensive lineman Jonathan Allen is a beast at 6–foot–3 and weighing in at 272 pounds. He finished sixth in the nation in sacks with 12. Junior linebacker Tim Williams chipped in 11.

Run defense is Clemson's Achilles' heel if you want to call it that. The Tigers are #32 against the run, which is better than most but not as good as some. It might be good enough against Alabama, though, which is ranked #23 in run offense even with the Heisman winner in the backfield.

Speaking of the ground game, Henry led the nation in rushing with 2,061 yards (including the 75 he picked up against Michigan State on New Year's Eve). You can be sure the Tigers will keep an eye on him.

Historically, I suppose there is considerable motivation for Clemson. Alabama leads the all–time series 12–2. But I seriously doubt that anyone living remembers the last time Clemson beat Alabama. It was on Oct. 25, 1905 in Columbia, S.C.

Alabama has beaten Clemson 12 straight times, and the Tigers' highest score in any of those games was 14 points on Oct. 26, 1968. More often than not, Alabama has shut out Clemson.

Bryant went 5–0 against Clemson, and his teams did shut out Clemson the first time he faced the Tigers and the last time he faced them. Clemson scored in the three games that were played in between. In the Tigers' entire 12–game losing streak against the Tide, Clemson has only scored in five games.

I'm sure the Tigers will score in this one. After all, Clemson hasn't been shut out since Aug. 30, 2003, when the Tigers lost to Georgia.

Actually, I think the Tigers will do better than score. I predict that Clemson will defeat Alabama.

Last week: 10–6

Upset specials last week: 1–3

Season: 198–58

Upset specials overall: 9–17

Meadowlark Lemon

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It's been hard for me to decide whether to write about Meadowlark Lemon, who died on Sunday at age 83, on my sports blog or my entertainment blog.

In a sense, I suppose, all athletes are entertainers, and Meadowlark Lemon, as a member of the Harlem Globetrotters, was clearly an entertainer. But I'm including him on my sports blog because my earliest memories of him are in a sports context.

You see, I saw him play once when I was in elementary school. I grew up in a then–small town in Arkansas about 30 miles northwest of Little Rock, and the Globetrotters brought their act to Little Rock one night. I was probably 6 or 7 years old, and I don't remember now whether I asked my father to take me to see them play or if he surprised me with the tickets.

Either way, we were on hand when the Globetrotters took the court against whoever they were playing that night — the opposing team was merely a prop for the Globetrotters to make their magic, but I didn't know that. I thought it was a real game. I didn't know it was fixed.

And I was definitely entertained — when Meadowlark did his patented sky hook from midcourt. Swish! If he kept making that shot, I thought to myself, the Globetrotters would win for sure.

I began to suspect, though, that it wasn't a legitimate game when the opponents made no apparent effort to keep the Globetrotters from scoring — or doing much of anything else. And my memory is that the Globetrotters did win — handily.

As I understand it, the Globetrotters began as a somewhat legitimate basketball team in the first 15 years of their existence. They played exhibition games, sure, but the effort to win was always there. They were regulars in the World Professional Basketball Tournament, which was held from 1939 to 1948. They even won it once.

But after a fellow named Goose Tatum joined the Globetrotters, the emphasis shifted to entertainment. And no one exemplified that spirit better than Meadowlark Lemon, who was known as the "Clown Prince of Basketball."

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He had been with the Globetrotters for about 12 or 14 years when I saw him play, and he was featured prominently in the advertising for the game.

I can still remember the ads in the newspaper — "Come see Meadowlark Lemon and the Harlem Globetrotters," the ads urged. Notice that Meadowlark got top billing.

To those who are unfamiliar with their history, the Globetrotters, who will be celebrating their 90th anniversary in 2016, seem to be the definition of discrepancy.

A team that calls Harlem its home actually began half a continent away in Chicago, from which all the original players came. Many went to school together. Their coach picked Harlem as their hometown to give them a truly out–of–town–sounding name. Well, also because the players were black, and Harlem was regarded at the time as the epicenter of black American culture.

The Globetrotters didn't play their first home game in Harlem until almost 40 years after the team was formed.

The Globetrotters were also sharply criticized during the civil rights movement of the '60s. Because nearly all of their players were black and their show consisted mainly of slapstick skits, they were accused of "Tomming" for the team's Jewish owner/coach. But none other than Jesse Jackson defended them, saying, "I think they've been a positive influence. ... They did not show blacks as stupid. On the contrary, they were shown as superior."

And Pope Pius XII, after granting the Globetrotters a private audience and seeing them do their "Magic Circle" ballhandling exhibition, exclaimed, "My, how clever these men are. If I had not seen this with my own eyes, I would not have believed it could be done."

The current Globetrotters have met Pope Francis. They made him an honorary Globetrotter.

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Meadowlark wasn't on hand for the meeting with Pius XII or the one with Francis. John Paul II was named an honorary Globetrotter in 2000, and Meadowlark probably missed that one, too. Only nine people have been named honorary Globetrotters, and Meadowlark probably was on hand for the first two — Henry Kissinger in 1976 and Bob Hope in 1977.

Meadowlark played a huge role in the popular success of the Globetrotters, and I am supremely grateful for the memory of seeing him play that night when I was 6 or 7.

Ranked Teams Start Playing in Bowls Today

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This is always a bittersweet time of the year for me. I love college football, and I hate to see the season end, but I always enjoy the bowls. Some more than others, of course.

That goes back to my childhood, I guess. There weren't nearly as many bowls then as there are now, and being in a bowl was special. It was a reward for a great season, and most were played on New Year's Day. What a great way to start a new year. And there was often a real mystery as to who would end up being the national champion. If certain things happened, a group of football players who woke up on New Year's Day with no expectation of being judged the best team in the land could go to bed that night with a legitimate hope that the pollsters would rank them #1 the next day.

I have seen it happen.

In those days, not every team in the then–Top 20 got a bowl bid. Many did, but many did not. There are so many bowls now that all the teams in the Top 25 and nearly five dozen more will be playing an extra game. There are so many bowls now that even teams with losing records are being permitted to play in some.

I grew up in Arkansas, and I can recall many years when the Razorbacks had seasons that would have qualified them for a bowl today — but for which they were not rewarded with a bowl bid at the time. It seems to me we've gone from one extreme to another. There must be a happy middle ground where an appropriate number of teams are rewarded for a good season but aren't simply rewarded for participating. For being there.

In the meantime, though, the Razorbacks have been back in bowl games the last two seasons, and I enjoy watching them play, even if I am not convinced that they deserve to be playing in the postseason.

Today

• Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas: Brigham Young vs. #20 Utah, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Until about five years ago, these two teams were conference rivals, and this will be the 90th time they have faced each other. Utah holds the all–time advantage and has won five of the last six meetings.
  
  If one judges by the schools' national rankings in total offense, though, the edge in this game belongs to BYU, #47 nationally while Utah is #86. BYU holds a slender advantage in total defense as well. The Cougars are #36 nationally while Utah is #41.
  
  But it is important to remember that Utah plays in the Pac–12 while BYU is an independent. Both teams are 9–3. Utah started the season strongly but kind of fizzled near the end. BYU started slowly but finished with wins in seven of their last eight games.
  
  I'm guessing it will be a good game. Seven of their last nine meetings were decided by a touchdown or less. Momentum is with Brigham Young, and I'm picking the Cougars to win in an upset special.

Monday, Dec. 21

• Miami Beach Bowl, Miami: #25 Western Kentucky vs. South Florida, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met twice before, and South Florida won both games.
  
  However, Western Kentucky wasn't 11–2 in those years (2009 and 2010) as it is this year. In fact, Western Kentucky was the exact opposite — a combined 2–22 in those two seasons.
  
  Besides, Western Kentucky is sixth in the nation in total offense (South Florida is 46th). South Florida has the edge in total defense (#37) while Western Kentucky is #88.
  
  I'm guessing that defensive deficiency will hurt Western Kentucky in this game, and that South Florida, playing what amounts to a home game, will be enough to lift unranked South Florida to an upset victory.

Tuesday, Dec. 22

• Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, Fla.: Toledo vs. #24 Temple, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 10th time these teams have met, and Toledo has won two–thirds of the time.
  
  Both teams have been better on defense than on offense this year; of the two, Toledo (9–2) has the edge over Temple (11–3) in the national rankings on defense. For that matter, the Rockets have been more productive on offense, too.
  
  I pick Toledo in yet another upset special.

Monday, Dec. 28

• Military Bowl, Annapolis, Md.: Pittsburgh vs. #21 Navy, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These are familiar rivals, having played each other 39 times before. Pitt holds the advantage in the all–time series, winning about 60% of the time.
  
  And Pitt has won six of the last eight meetings — but Navy won the last meeting.
  
  Statistically, Navy's offense has been better than Pitt's, but Navy is only ranked 61st nationally in total offense. In total defense, Pittsburgh is ranked #23, and Pitt is ranked #42 — so this game figures to be more defensive than offensive.
  
  If that turns out to be the case — and I think it will — I pick Pittsburgh in an another upset special.

Tuesday, Dec. 29

• Russell Athletic Bowl, Orlando, Fla.: #10 North Carolina vs. #18 Baylor, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This should be one of the more interesting bowl games to be played before the national semifinals in which, until recently, the Baylor Bears hoped they would be participants.
  
  The North Carolina Tar Heels probably never had such hopes even though they ran the table in the ACC until coming up against top–ranked Clemson in the ACC championship game — which North Carolina might well have won had it not been for some bad officiating. Most likely, the Tar Heels couldn't have leaped past enough teams in the rankings to claim a spot in the Final Four if they had won — but they certainly would have deprived the Tigers of a berth in the semifinals, which would have been almost as good.
  
  That didn't happen, though, so North Carolina finds itself playing Baylor. The Bears spent most of the season ranked well ahead of just about everyone, but they stumbled badly down the stretch. Even so, Baylor is ranked second nationally in total offense. North Carolina is pretty good on offense, too. The Tar Heels are ranked 11th.
  
  Neither team finished in the top 50 in total defense so I am inclined to think that offense will rule in this game. And North Carolina's defense has been so weak this year that I expect Baylor to get back into that 50–plus–points–a–game mode the Bears were in for first six games of the season.
  
  I pick Baylor.
• Texas Bowl, Houston: Texas Tech vs. #22 LSU, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams met twice in the '50s, but this will be their first encounter in nearly 60 years.
  
  Still, it doesn't seem that much has changed. LSU won those first two encounters and seems likely to win this one.
  
  But, as Lee Corso would say, "Not ... so ... fast."
  
  Texas Tech had the #4 offense in the land this season (LSU was #74). LSU's defense was #10. Will that be enough to contain the Red Raiders? I don't know, but it looks like it could be kind of ugly on both sides of the scrimmage line when LSU has the ball. Tech's defense is ranked #100 in the nation.
  
  The marquee matchup will be Tech's offense against LSU's defense, but I expect the other matchup to be the one that generates headlines. I pick LSU.

Wednesday, Dec. 30

• Holiday Bowl, San Diego: Southern Cal vs. #23 Wisconsin, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It has been nearly 50 years since these teams faced each other. In all they have played each other six times — twice in Rose Bowls — and Southern Cal has won every time.
  
  Like most Pac–12 schools, the emphasis is on offense at Southern Cal, and the Trojans rank #22 nationally in total offense whereas Wisconsin is #84. But I am one of those who believes that defense wins championships — and bowl games — and Wisconsin's is second in the nation (Southern Cal is 94th in total defense).
  
  San Diego may be a short trip for the Trojans, but I believe Wisconsin will prevail.

Thursday, Dec. 31

• Peach Bowl, Atlanta: #14 Houston vs. #9 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: What a blockbuster game this would have been in the Guy Lewis basketball era at Houston. It might even have been a blockbuster in the Bill Yeoman days in football.
  
  But Houston, frankly, plays a lower–caliber schedule now than it did then. The quality of Florida State's competition hasn't changed much.
  
  There was a time (1960–78) when these schools faced each other just about every year, and Houston won more than 80% of the time.
  
  But their last meeting was in 1978 so that doesn't have a lot of relevance to the modern teams, does it?
  
  Speaking of the modern teams, Houston's offense was tied for #11 with North Carolina while Florida State was #50. Of course the quality of the respective leagues' defenses had lot to do with that. And speaking of defense, Florida State finished #16 while Houston was #77.
  
  Both offenses look like they will probably be able to score. Houston's defense has been much weaker than Florida State's, which makes me think that Florida State will prevail.
• Orange Bowl (national semifinal), Miami: #4 Oklahoma vs. #1 Clemson, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The first of college football's semifinals matches two very good teams in a rematch of last year's Russell Athletic Bowl.
  
  The all–time series is tied at 2–2, but the last two games were bowl games. Oklahoma won the first two games, which were played in Norman.
  
  And, appropriately for a college football semifinal, both teams have good offenses and defenses, although Clemson has the edge in both categories. It is particularly close in the national rankings — Clemson's offense is #8 while Oklahoma's is #10. The Sooners scored at least 30 points in each game they played — except the one they lost to Texas. Clemson was held under 30 points three times. That sounds like offenses will be the postgame story, no matter who the winner is.
  
  And I think it will be Clemson.
• Cotton Bowl (national semifinal), Arlington, Texas: #3 Michigan State vs. #2 Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This might very well be the game of the postseason.
  
  Alabama has the #3 defense in the land, but Michigan State has a kind of a sneaky defense. The Spartans are only ranked #46 in defense, but, other than Nebraska, no team scored more than 28 points against Michigan State. In fact, five of Michigan State's foes were held under 20 points.
  
  Alabama won their only previous meeting — the 2011 Capital One Bowl — and won it by six touchdowns. I wouldn't expect such an easy time in this one. Alabama's defense is ranked 34th while Michigan State's is 43rd. Alabama does have the Heisman Trophy winner. Ironically, the 2011 Capital One Bowl was the last time that Alabama had a current or former Heisman Trophy winner in the lineup. That was Mark Ingram, who scored two touchdowns in his final collegiate game.
  
  I don't think the score will be nearly as lopsided this time, but I do think the same team will win. I pick Alabama.

Friday, Jan. 1

• Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fla.: #12 Northwestern vs. Tennessee, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams met once before — in the '97 Citrus Bowl — and Tennessee won that one. Peyton Manning was the game's MVP.
  
  The Vols could probably use Manning in this game. Even at his age, it couldn't hurt.
  
  The stats don't really clarify things. Northwestern had one of the best defenses in the land this year — #8 nationally — but one of the worst offenses — #117. Tennessee was around #50 in both categories.
  
  Northwestern opened the season impressively with a win over Stanford (who can be seen in the Rose Bowl) and won its first six games but stumbled in the middle of the season against Michigan and Iowa (who will be playing Stanford in the Rose Bowl). Tennessee had high hopes when the season began but lost three conference games before Halloween. The Vols come into this game riding a five–game winning streak, which sounds better than it is. None of those wins came against a team with a winning record.
  
  I'm an SEC boy, and I pull for Southern teams whenever I can, but I have to be honest and say that Northwestern probably will win.
• Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Fla.: #17 Michigan vs. #19 Florida, noon (Central) on ABC: This will be the third time these teams have met, and each game was played on New Year's Day. Their most recent encounter was in this same bowl — only it was called the Capital One Bowl in those days.
  
  Neither team was impressive on offense this year, but Michigan was impressive on defense, ranking fourth in the land. Florida was pretty good on defense, too, with a #12 ranking.
  
  It looks like this game will be a defensive struggle. Michigan's offense was anemic at #72, but Florida's was positively pedestrian at #98. All things considered, I have to pick Michigan to win.
• Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz.: #8 Notre Dame vs. #7 Ohio State, noon (Central) on ESPN: If you want to see a game between two really big names, this is it. It really doesn't get much bigger than a game between Notre Dame and Ohio State.
  
  They have only played five times before — and never during Woody Hayes' tenure. Isn't that remarkable? Well, maybe not. For most of Hayes' time at Ohio State, the Big Ten would not permit any members other than the league champion to play in a bowl. Since the Big Ten champion always went to the Rose Bowl and faced the champion of the Pac–8 or Pac–10 conference, that meant the schools would have had to schedule a nonconference game.
  
  They could have done that. Hayes coached in nonconference games against Oklahoma and Penn State — and, for all I know, he tried to arrange for a game with Notre Dame, but a point or two could not be resolved. Anyway, they never played each other when Hayes was at Ohio State, and that is a shame. It could have been fun, especially when Ara Parseghian was still coaching at South Bend.
  
  Ohio State has a huge edge on defense. The Buckeyes are #7; Notre Dame is #37, which isn't bad unless you're facing a team that is in the Top 10. The Irish have the advantage on offense (#28 to #45), but I doubt that it can get the best of Ohio State's defense enough to put a reasonable number of points on the board. After all, the Buckeyes held opponents under 20 points in 75% of their games this season.
  
  I've always believed in the saying, "Defense wins championships," and I think defense will win the Fiesta Bowl for Ohio State.
• Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.: #5 Stanford vs. #6 Iowa, 4 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have never faced each other before, but both teams have faced Northwestern this season, as I mentioned earlier. Stanford lost in the opener; Iowa prevailed in midseason.
  
  Based on that comparison, the logical conclusion would be that Iowa will win this game. But I learned a long time ago that comparing outcomes against common opponents wasn't a good way to predict future games.
  
  The teams really reflect the priorities in their conferences. Iowa comes from the more defensive–minded Big Ten and is ranked 36th in the nation (Stanford is #71). The Pac–12 favors offense, and Stanford is ranked #27 in that category (Iowa is #48).
  
  It looks pretty even to me, but I'm usually inclined to favor the more defensive–minded school when it looks like a draw, especially in bowl games. So I'll take Iowa.
• Sugar Bowl, New Orleans: #13 Oklahoma State vs. #16 Ole Miss, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the third meeting between these schools. Their first two encounters were in the Cotton Bowl. The change of scenery can't hurt.
  
  But will it change the outcome? Ole Miss won those first two games, and statistics suggest the Rebels have the edge again.
  
  According to the rankings, this should be an offensive game. Ole Miss is ranked #14 in total offense while Oklahoma State is ranked #20. Ole Miss also has the edge on defense, which isn't saying much. The Rebels are ranked #53; Oklahoma State is ranked #90.
  
  I expect a lot of scoring, but, in the end, Ole Miss will win.

Saturday, Jan. 2

• Alamo Bowl, San Antonio: #15 Oregon vs. #11 TCU, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically, these teams have played twice — in the late '70s. Each won on the other's home field.
  
  This game is being played on a neutral site — although Fort Worth, Texas, is much closer to San Antonio than Eugene, Oregon, is.
  
  Both teams are in the Top 10 in offense. TCU is #4, and Oregon is #9. Neither team was particularly impressive on defense — but Oregon was spectacularly bad, ranking #115. I pick TCU to prevail.

Last week: 5–1

Upset specials last week: 1–0

Season: 188–52

Upset specials overall: 8–14

And Now, The End Is Near ...

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The chances that Baylor would be able to play for a national title were always rather slim — but they are nonexistent now following the Bears' loss to the Frogs on a cold, rainy night in Fort Worth, Texas, last weekend.

There is no championship game in the Big 12 these days. There aren't enough conference members to qualify for one. Since the conference is not divided into divisions anymore, it's hard to imagine who would be playing in a Big 12 championship game if there was one. The conference was once divided into North and South divisions; if we can assume that the conference would use that same geographical determination, it is fairly easy to guess which teams, based on their performances this season, would be likely to be playing for the conference crown. We know that #3 Oklahoma would be involved, but the Sooners' opponent would be one of two (currently), probably three (after today's games are over) teams.

Of course, if the Big 12 had a championship game, it would be played today, when the other major conference championship games are being played. We would already know the outcome of the Baylor–Texas game (and the Sooners would certainly warn the Bears not to take the Longhorns lightly); consequently, we would know which of the three teams would be playing Oklahoma for the Big 12 title.

Baylor and Texas are playing today, though, and the Sooners are idle.

But we have five conference championship games featuring ranked teams on the schedule this weekend, and at least three are likely to have some bearing on who gets invited to participate in college football's Final Four.

It appears that #3 Oklahoma is already in. The Sooners, as I just observed, aren't playing this weekend, but they — and the rest of us — will learn which teams made the Final Four when the pairings are announced after today's games are in the books.

Right now logic would say that Clemson, Alabama and Iowa or Michigan State will join the Sooners in the Final Four, but if one (or more) of those teams stumbles, things could take a dramatic turn.

This will be my last prediction column of the regular season. Once the bowl pairings have been announced, I'll write a column predicting the outcomes of the bowl games involving ranked teams — and, of course, the Final Four. My guess would be that my column will run in a couple of weeks. I'll follow that column with a column about the national championship game, once we know who will be playing in that one.

Enjoy the championship games.

Idle: #3 Oklahoma, #6 Ohio State, #9 Notre Dame, #10 Florida State, #11 TCU, #13 Northwestern, #14 Oklahoma State, #15 Oregon, #16 Ole Miss, #19 Michigan, #21 Utah, #22 Navy, #23 LSU, #25 Wisconsin

Saturday

• ACC Championship: #8 North Carolina vs. #1 Clemson at Charlotte, N.C., 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In the history of this series, Clemson has won about two–thirds of the time. The Tigers have done even better than that since 1999. The teams have played nine times in the last 16 years, and Clemson has won seven of those games.
  
  Clemson holds the advantage on both campuses historically — but if there is one glimmer of hope for the Tar Heels, it is that the teams have split their two previous games on neutral fields — never mind that Teddy Roosevelt was president when one of those games was played, and Woodrow Wilson was president when the other was played.
  
  This season's statistics suggest an entertaining game. Clemson is #14 in the nation in total offense, and North Carolina is #16. Both offenses appear to be pretty balanced in terms of their yardage production. North Carolina has been averaging 41 points per game; Clemson is averaging 38.
  
  It is on defense where Clemson has been most impressive this year. The Tigers are #8 in the land while North Carolina is #70. Those numbers suggest that North Carolina may struggle to move the ball. Clemson, it would seem, will have an easier time of it.
  
  But that's why they play the game, isn't it? It isn't played on paper but on a field 100 yards long and 50 yards wide. And one thing those numbers don't tell you is that North Carolina gave up a lot of yards this season but not a lot of points. Their opponents averaged just under 21 points per game.
  
  The Tigers were stingy as well but not as stingy as one might think from their gaudy national ranking in total defense. Clemson allowed an average of 18.8 points per game — which is higher than all the other Top 10 total defenses but one — Georgia Southern.
  
  Don't get me wrong. I expect Clemson to win. But I am saying that it is quite possible that North Carolina will pull off an upset and throw the college football playoff field into a tizzy.
• SEC Championship: #18 Florida vs. #2 Alabama at Atlanta, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This will be the eighth time these teams have played for the SEC title. The Gators are 4–3 in the title tilts.
  
  Overall, Alabama has won about 64% of the time. Florida hasn't beaten Alabama since Dec. 6, 2008, when the Gators beat the Tide for the SEC title. Since then Alabama has won four in a row.
  
  If Alabama wins and advances to the college football playoffs, as expected, the Crimson Tide will have the worst–rated offense of the bunch. Alabama is 48th in the nation. Florida is even worse at #102, but the 10–2 Gators have no hope of being in the Final Four. They can only deprive Alabama of a spot in the Final Four.
  
  I don't think they will. I pick Alabama.
• Big Ten Championship: #5 Michigan State vs. #4 Iowa at Indianapolis, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This will be the 46th meeting in what has been a pretty competitive series over the years — and there is every reason to believe that this year's edition will go down to the wire.
  
  Iowa (12–0) is 22nd in total defense, 58th in total offense. Michigan State (11–1) is 29th in total defense, 66th in total offense. Those numbers would suggest that Iowa will dominate on both sides of the ball in what would figure to be a low–scoring game, but hold on just a minute. Iowas has faced only two ranked teams all season — Wisconsin and Northwestern — and beat them both, but the highest ranking either achieved prior to playing Iowa was #19. Michigan State faced and defeated three ranked teams, two of whom were in the Top 10.
  
  As I say, it should be entertaining, but I will pick Michigan State in an upset special. I think the Spartans are more accustomed to the pressure of the big game spotlight this season.
• Pac–12 Championship: #24 Southern Cal vs. #7 Stanford at Santa Clara, Calif., 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Trojans are solidly in the driver's seat in their all–time series with Stanford, and they had won the last two meetings, but Stanford snapped USC's streak earlier in the season 41–31 at Los Angeles. The conference championship game will be played much closer to home for the 10–2 Cardinal.
  
  The Pac–12 has always been an offense–oriented conference, and Southern Cal has a slight edge on Stanford in that category, #29 to #34. In total defense, Stanford has a more decisive advantage, #56 to #73. Crunch the numbers, and it comes out about even.
  
  I just think Stanford, playing in what amounts to a home game, will be too much for the 8–4 Trojans.
• Texas at #12 Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: As recently as 1993–2009, Texas beat Baylor 16 out of 17 times, and it was usually pretty decisive.
  
  That's about how it was in the days of the Southwest Conference. Texas routinely beat up Baylor in those days. Well, everyone did, really. TCU wasn't very good in those days. Nor was Rice. And SMU was good occasionally but usually occupied the cellar with the other three. Ordinarily, Baylor was the worst team in the conference.
  
  But times have changed. Baylor would have to win every game for nearly half a century to pull even with the Longhorns in the all–time series, but the Bears have won four of the last five against Texas — and appear likely to make it five of the last six.
  
  Texas' defense is ranked 86th in the nation — and that's the good news. The Longhorns are #104 in total offense.
  
  Baylor's defense is adequate — certainly it should be sufficient to stifle the UT offense — but the Bears really shine on offense, where they are ranked third in the land, averaging 616 yards and about 51 points per game.
  
  I fully expect Baylor to win.
• American Athletic Conference Championship: #20 Temple at #17 Houston, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: In their four previous meetings, Houston emerged victorious every time.
  
  And, based on their rankings, it is tempting to pick the 11–1 Cougars to beat the 10–2 Owls for a fifth time.
  
  Houston has a huge advantage in total offense. The Cougars are ranked 15th while the Owls are 93rd. While I would probably be inclined to give Houston the edge in total offense, that's a much bigger gap than I would have expected, given that Temple has never been held to less than 20 points in a game this season (in fact, the Owls have scored at least 30 points in half of their games).
  
  Temple holds the edge in total defense, but it isn't as decisive as Houston's advantage in total offense. Temple ranks 19th in total defense; Houston ranks 59th. And it is true that Houston has had some problems on defense this year. The Cougars went through a stretch in the middle of the season when it appeared they would emerge as a dominating defense, allowing a total 17 points in three consecutive games, but the rest of the time it was like a watching a video game.
  
  Temple averaged a respectable 368 yards per game in total offense; the Cougars gave up an average of 381 yards in total defense. When Houston has the ball, the Cougars, with an average of 499 yards in total offense per game, will be facing a stingy defense that allowed an average of only 329.
  
  Should be interesting. When that final whistle blows, though, I expect Houston to prevail.

Last week: 13–5

Upset specials last week: 2–1

Season: 183–51

Upset specials overall: 7–14