For nearly five years, I worked on the sports copy desk of the Arkansas Gazette, which was, for a long time, the oldest newspaper west of the Mississippi River.
And I worked with several talented writers — some of whom are gone now — who knew a lot about the sports they covered.
One was the fellow who wrote about horse racing in Hot Springs. I had a lot of respect for this guy's opinions and, lately, I have been wondering what he would think the odds are that thoroughbred racing is going to end its three–decade drought since the last Triple Crown winner.
Well, if he agreed with Gene Menez's column at CNNSI.com about today's Kentucky Derby, I'm inclined to think he would feel the odds didn't favor seeing the Triple Crown streak end in 2009.
In fact, if Menez is correct about the Kentucky Derby, all talk of a Triple Crown may well end when the horses run in the second of the three races two weeks from today.
"Even though the morning line for Saturday's Kentucky Derby suggests that this year's Run for the Roses is a four–horse race (top top four choices are 5–1 or better, and no one else is lower than 15–1), the reality is that a case can be made for perhaps a dozen entrants donning the blanket of roses," he writes.
Menez finally settles on 5–1 pick Friesan Fire, but he makes pretty good cases for I Want Revenge (3–1), Dunkirk (4–1) and Chocolate Candy (20–1) as well.
I think a wide–open race like that should attract a lot of attention today, but if there is no standout — no one horse that leaves the rest of the field behind in a cloud of dust — I can't see 2009 being the Year of the Triple Crown winner.
Shoot, we had a horse last year that romped to big victories in the first two races — and he was a huge favorite to complete the sweep. But he may still be making the turn in that third one.
My instinct tells me that a competitive Derby should be a good thing, attracting lots of attention and lots of wagers. The odds aren't astronomical, although half a dozen horses are around 50–1. In fact, half of the 20 entries are 20–1 or better, which makes them reasonable candidates in the betting public's eyes.
But in spite of attractive and seemingly realistic odds on several horses, Nancy Kercheval reports for Bloomberg.com that the recession could reduce betting by 30%.
"Rising unemployment and job insecurity, a lack of available credit, falling property values and declines in retirement savings and other investments have prompted people to reduce spending," reports Kercheval.
Tony Sinisi, a Las Vegas oddsmaker, says that would be in line with declines that have been seen in Super Bowl and March Madness wagering. "There are fewer disposable betting dollars," he says.
That being the case, I guess there will be a lot of people who would be more likely to place a bet today if they felt they could maximize their investment. There's no guarantee — my friend liked to say that there's no such thing as a sure thing. But Christina Settimi writes, at Forbes.com, that you just need to know where to look — and what to look for.
Settimi, like many horse racing observers, relies heavily on The Daily Racing Form. She also makes no prediction after listing the important factors to consider, although she cautions against picking the favorite — whoever that may be by post time.
I don't follow horse racing religiously so please don't base your selection on my prediction. But I've always tended to feel that, if everything else seems to be equal, speed figures are the best yardstick. In this case, that appears to favor the 3–1 favorite, I Want Revenge. My second choice would be 4–1 pick Dunkirk.
So, in spite of warnings not to pick the favorite, that's what I'm doing, although speed figures also make a compelling case for Menez's pick, Friesan Fire.
As it always does, the Kentucky Derby will answer a lot of questions. With a Derby winner likely to be in the field, betting may rebound at the Preakness in two weeks as bettors assess the chances of the Derby winner capturing a Triple Crown this year.
But if it's a photo finish with possibly three or four horses in the picture, don't expect a horse to join Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed as one of American racing's Triple Crown winners.
By the way ...
Here's some interesting Triple Crown trivia.
The Kentucky Derby is held on the first Saturday in May. Of the 13 horses that won the Triple Crown, none of those horses won a Kentucky Derby that was held on May 2. Triple Crown winners have won the Kentucky Derby on every other possible date except May 2.
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