The Ice Bowl

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Thursday will be 42 years since the Green Bay Packers played the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL title game that is known to pro football history as the "Ice Bowl."

If you aren't old enough to remember it, it may be hard to understand why people still regard it as one of the greatest games — if not the greatest game — ever played. I guess the only answer is: The Ice Bowl had it all. It combined everything that football fans love about football — legendary coaches and players, adverse weather conditions, championship stakes, a young but percolating rivalry between the teams and their fans, topped off by a dramatic game–winning drive in the final minutes.

I've always enjoyed the account of the game–winning play in the best–selling 1967 season diary of guard Jerry Kramer, "Instant Replay."

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"The ground was giving me trouble, the footing was bad near the goal line, but I dug my cleats in, got a firm hold with my right foot, and we got down in position, and Bart [Starr] called the 'hut' signal. I came off the ball as fast as I ever have in my life. I came off as fast as anyone could. In fact, I wouldn't swear that I didn't beat the center's snap by a fraction of a second. I wouldn't swear that I wasn't actually offside on the play.

"I slammed into Jethro [Pugh] hard. All he had time to do was raise his left arm. He didn't even get it up all the way and I charged into him. His body was a little high, the way we'd noticed in the movies, and, with [center Ken] Bowman's help, I moved him outside. Willie Townes, next to Jethro, was down low, very low. He was supposed to come in low and close to the middle. He was low, but he didn't close. He might have filled the hole, but he didn't, and Bart churned into the opening and stretched and fell and landed over the goal line. It was the most beautiful sight in the world, seeing Bart lying next to me and seeing the referee in front of me, his arms over his head, signaling the touchdown. There were 13 seconds to play."

Jerry Kramer
Instant Replay

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I was merely a young boy when the game was played, but the Packers of those days turned me into a Green Bay fan for life. I still have vivid memories of watching Vince Lombardi walk the Green Bay sidelines, although I have few memories of anything else from that time — except perhaps the summer evening about seven months later when my grandfather taught me how to cast from the banks of an east Texas lake and, to both his surprise and mine, I caught a fish.

But that's another story.

Scattershooting

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If you never lived in Texas — or this region of the country — you may not know who Blackie Sherrod was.

He was a sportswriter, a sports columnist whose columns frequently were about many topics so, rather than give priority to any one subject, he would begin by writing "Scattershooting while wondering whatever became of [insert name of obscure or no longer prominent person]," and then he would launch into a stream of unrelated consciousness.

Perhaps Blackie should have patented that word. It seems almost blasphemous for anyone else to use it. At the very least, it seems it ought to be required that Blackie's name is mentioned whenever it is used.

Well, I have. And now I'm going to write about a few things that are on my mind today, starting with

• Urban Meyer, the soon–to–be ex–coach of the Florida Gators.
  
  Is there anyone who can honestly say he/she was not surprised to hear that the 45–year–old Meyer is calling it quits after Friday's Sugar Bowl contest with Cincinnati? Or that the reason for his departure was health issues presumably brought on by the stress of coaching?
  
  In Gainesville, shocked fans tried to come to terms with the news yesterday and expressed their hope that he will regain his good health.
  
  But — and this is in no way intended as a slap at Meyer or his achievements — I think Dan Wetzel's assertion at Yahoo! Sports that Meyer "was the most influential coach in college football this decade" is a little over the top. Wetzel makes a good case, but I have to point out that there are other coaches — USC's Pete Carroll, Oklahoma's Bob Stoops, Texas' Mack Brown come immediately to mind — who have enjoyed enormous success and coached Heisman finalists (if not winners) in this decade. Meyer has been one of many.
  
  Again, I'm not running down what he's done at Florida. He will be hard to replace. But "most influential?"


• Well, the process of replacing Meyer probably has begun at the University of Florida. I'm sure officials in the Athletic Department have been conferring informally since yesterday's announcement.
  
  And, whether justifiably or not, football fans in the SEC — and elsewhere across the nation — are wondering if their coach will be lured to Gainesville. Matt Hayes of The Sporting News says Florida may name Meyer's replacement within a week — in other words, before Alabama and Texas play for the national title.
  
  Hayes says five names are at the top of Florida's coaching wish list: Houston's Kevin Sumlin, Stanford's Jim Harbaugh, Boise State's Chris Petersen, Arkansas' Bobby Petrino and Utah's Kyle Whittingham.
  
  At ESPN.com, Chris Low also mentions Petrino and Petersen as possibilities, but his list includes the likes of Stoops, Mississippi State's Dan Mullen and former Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan.
  
  Petrino and Mullen are the only SEC coaches whose names I have seen mentioned — so far. But SEC ties (or, for that matter, a background as a player or coach for Bear Bryant) do not mean what they once did. Meyer himself had neither on his resume when he was hired to replace Ron Zook five years ago.
  
  It's all a guessing game right now. I don't know if Florida will announce Meyer's successor within a week nor do I know who is really at the top of the Gators' list, but my prediction is that speculation will be widespread by the time Meyer's last game is under way Friday night.


• Meanwhile, Meyer has been preparing for his Florida coaching finale. Only time will tell if he will ever return to the sidelines, but it can be said that, while he won't be competing for his third national title in five years at Florida, Meyer will be finishing his career as a Gator coach in the bowl game that once was synonymous with SEC excellence — the Sugar Bowl. The opponent may not be traditional, but the setting certainly is.
  
  It is interesting, though, that Rick Newman recently wrote, in U.S. News & World Report, about something that has bothered me over the years — the odd combinations of sponsors and bowl games.
  
  For example, Newman takes exception to the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, which will be played in nearby Fort Worth on Thursday. "If you really want to honor the men and women in uniform," he writes, "just name the bowl after them, period. Don't stick you own name in there and ride on their coattails."
  
  Newman rants about the "absurdities that will be tripping across the TV screen" during the bowl season, but, in my opinion, his complaints are pretty tame. My complaint about bowl game names goes back 20 years, when Mobil Oil was the sponsor of the Cotton Bowl.
  
  When I was growing up, the Cotton Bowl was often the game that produced a national champion, although it wasn't always obvious. Sometimes you had to wait until the pollsters voted the next day before you knew who the national champion was.
  
  That was a simpler time, a time when bowl games didn't have to have a corporate sponsor in the bowl's name. That changed at some point, and, from 1989 to 1995, the Cotton Bowl (previously called the Cotton Bowl Classic) was sponsored by Mobil Oil. As a result, the game was called the "Mobil Oil Cotton Bowl Classic."
  
  It never seemed to me that oil and cotton made a very appealing combination.

Remembering Billy Martin

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In a way, I guess it is appropriate that the New York Yankees won the World Series this year.

It was on this day in 1989 that Billy Martin, a second baseman for the Yankees from 1950–57 and later a five–time manager of the Yankees, died in a one–vehicle accident near his farm in Fenton, N.Y. And, in the two years ending in a "9" since then, the Yankees have won the World Series.

Martin, who was 61 at the time of his fatal accident, was known to have an addiction to alcohol, and he and the driver of the pickup in which he was riding had been drinking heavily that Christmas Day. It was suggested, by sports journalist Peter Golenbock, that Martin had been the actual driver of the truck, but Martin's widow and his drinking buddy attempted to cover up his complicity. The autopsy concluded that Martin had been a passenger and that he hadn't been wearing his seatbelt.

It is said that, at the time of his death, Martin was preparing for yet another stint as Yankees manager. Supposedly, he had even gone so far as to assemble a coaching staff. But it was not to be.

It would have been wildly entertaining to see Martin back in the dugout, I'm sure.

Martin played big–league baseball from 1950 to 1961 — most of that time (1950–57), he played for the Yankees. He was a teammate of Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle. During that time, he was a member of four World Series–winning teams.

He was the manager of five teams between 1969 and 1988 (he didn't manage in 1984, 1986 or 1987) — and most of those seasons (1975–78, 1979, 1983, 1985 and 1988), he managed the Yankees. Reggie Jackson was one of his players. He won another World Series (in 1977) in that role.

He was talented, but he was volatile, and his drinking problem only exacerbated the situation. He got into fights as a player. He got thrown out of ball games as a manager. His frequent firings by Yankee owner George Steinbrenner became the subject of jokes in the 1970s and 1980s.

One can only wonder if he had mellowed enough, at the age of 61, to last more than a season as the Yankees' skipper.

I always felt a couple of statements summed up Martin quite nicely:

• A few years before Martin's death, I remember reading "Bill James' Baseball Abstract," and James speculated about what each team's manager might be doing, presumably based on his education or experience or general personality, if baseball did not exist. The answer for Martin was "10 to 20."


• The other was a comment from Martin himself that is chiseled in his grave marker: "I may not have been the greatest Yankee to put on the uniform, but I was the proudest."

Well, as a wise man once said, "Temper gets you into trouble. Pride keeps you there." Billy Martin was well acquainted with both.

And Then There Was One ...

Well, one of the two remaining undefeated pro football teams took it on the chin last week, as I predicted. That was the good news. The bad news was, it wasn't the one I predicted.

Indianapolis survived Jacksonville, but New Orleans could not get past Dallas. I predicted that Jacksonville and New Orleans would win. So I was 0–2 in Week 15 before last Sunday — dubbed "Separation Sunday" — dawned. And that was before many of the upsets (at least as far as my predictions were concerned) occurred.

Anyway, the playoff picture is coming into focus now. In the NFC, Arizona has joined the Vikings and the Saints as division champion, and Philadelphia has clinched a playoff berth. Green Bay and Dallas appear to be on their way to the playoffs, but scenarios exist in which either could be overtaken by the New York Giants.

Things are a little less settled in the AFC, where the Colts and Chargers have secured their division championships. New England can clinch the AFC East with a win; if the Jets and Dolphins each lose one more, that would accomplish the same thing. In the AFC North, Cincinnati has a one–game lead over Baltimore, but the Bengals, who swept Baltimore, can clinch with a win or a Ravens loss.

Baltimore is still in the driver's seat for a wild card, but half a dozen teams are only a game behind the Ravens and the other wild card contender, Denver.

It's possible — even probable — that some of the playoff slots will be decided this weekend, but I expect some berths to be up in the air when the teams play their final regular–season games next week.

CHRISTMAS

• San Diego (11–3) at Tennessee (7–7) — As Jim Wyatt observes in The Tennessean, the Titans need to win out — and they need some help from others — to earn a playoff berth for the third straight year. The challenge is even greater, considering that San Diego brings a nine–game winning streak (and five straight road wins) into the Christmas Day encounter. On the other hand, the Titans' numbers aren't too bad, either. They've won seven of their last eight games and they have a 5–2 record at home. If they can somehow beat the Chargers, my guess is they will win their season finale against Seattle — and then it will be out of their hands. Can the Titans pull it off? Well, interestingly, they are about equal to the Chargers in team offense (better on the ground than through the air), but San Diego has a decisive advantage on defense. Based on that, I'll go with the Chargers.

SUNDAY

• Tampa Bay (2–12) at New Orleans (13–1) — This game is almost totally irrelevant — except for the matter of homefield advantage through the NFC playoffs. The Saints need a win (or a Minnesota loss) to wrap it up. One would think that Tampa Bay's weak defense will be no match for New Orleans' best–in–the–NFL offense. Mike Triplett of the New Orleans Times–Picayune reports that Saints QB Drew Brees says the loss to Dallas is "a hurdle that we have to overcome." I am confident they will be able to do so against the Buccaneers.


• Baltimore (8–6) at Pittsburgh (7–7) — When these two teams met in Baltimore on Nov. 29, the Ravens won in overtime. The Ravens control their own destiny; the Steelers, meanwhile, are an enigma. Pittsburgh beat San Diego and Minnesota in the first half of the season and has lost to Oakland, Kansas City and Cleveland in the second half of the season but, nevertheless, upended an apparently playoff–bound Green Bay Packers team in the final seconds last Sunday. Baltimore (2–4 on the road) cannot take the defending world champs (5–2 at home) for granted, even though the Steelers are 1–4 in division play. I expect another close one, and I'll give Baltimore the edge by a single point.


• Jacksonville (7–7) at New England (9–5) — There are a bunch of AFC teams at 7–7, but, thanks to the tiebreakers, the Jaguars are in the best position to overtake the leaders in the wild card race. If they can somehow beat the Patriots, their chances will be pretty good with only a trip to Cleveland remaining on their schedule — but the Jags are 0–4 against the Patriots in the regular season since their debut in 1995. The last time the teams met was in Foxboro, Mass., during the 2007 playoffs. Jacksonville kept it close in the first half, but two TD passes from Tom Brady in the third quarter put it out of reach. In 2006, the Pats won at Jacksonville. In 2003, they won in Foxboro. They won in Jacksonville in 1997. They won at Foxboro in 1996. I'll pick New England to make it 5–0 against Jacksonville in regular–season play.


• Houston (7–7) at Miami (7–7) — The winner of this game probably will have little chance of making the playoffs, but the loser will be out of the chase for sure. At best, the winner will finish the season 9–7, a record that might be good enough to qualify for a wild card. But the best the loser can hope for is 8–8, and that is a considerable longshot. Statistically, the Texans have the edge in team offense and team defense. Miami is 4–2 at home while Houston is 4–3 on the road. I expect this to be one of the more competitive games of the week. Houston is 4–0 against Miami since launching its franchise in 2002, but this will be only the second time they've played in Miami. I'll go with the Texans.


• Seattle (5–9) at Green Bay (9–5) — The Packers were oh, so close, in their game with the Steelers last week. They return to Lambeau Field, where they are 5–2, to take on a Seattle team that has little to play for — and has enjoyed little success on the road, going 1–6 so far. I expect Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers to pick apart Seattle's defense and help the Packers put a lock on a wild card.


• Carolina (6–8) at New York Giants (8–6) — The series has been a decidedly mixed bag in the last 10 years. The Giants won their last encounter with the Panthers last year. Like this year's game, it was played at Giants Stadium; New York needed an extra period to claim the win. In 2006, New York won at Carolina. In 2005, the teams didn't play during the regular season, but they met in the wild–card round, and the Panthers blanked the Giants at Giants Stadium. In 2003, the Panthers won on the road again. Statistically, the Giants have a huge advantage over the Panthers in team offense, thanks largely to the gap in their passing attacks — although the Panthers do have the NFC's top–rated run offense. The Giants also enjoy the advantage in team defense, although the difference is not as profound. I pick the Giants — who may or may not still have a shot at the playoffs when the day is done.


• Oakland (5–9) at Cleveland (3–11) — This will be the sixth time these teams have faced each other since the Browns resumed play as an NFL franchise in 1999, and Cleveland holds a 3–2 advantage over the Raiders in that time. This will be only the second time that the teams have played in Cleveland, though. The Browns won that first encounter, 13–7, on Oct. 12, 2003. The Raiders have been better than expected this year, although the road back to the playoffs is still long for this once–proud franchise, and it can be difficult to see what might tempt football fans in Cleveland to brave sub–freezing temperatures and a 50% chance of snow to watch these teams play. They have the two worst offenses in the NFL, and the Raiders have a slight edge on defense, although neither team has been spectacular in that category, either. The Browns are 1–5 at home, but they may have righted their ship, beating Pittsburgh the last time they played in Cleveland Browns Stadium. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 3–4 on the road. As I say, there are no playoff berths on the line, but the statistics suggest a close contest. I'll give a very slight edge to the Browns.


• Kansas City (3–11) at Cincinnati (9–5) — In the NFL, teams don't play the other teams in their conference every year (except for the teams in their divisions). Thanks to some anomaly in the scheduling formula, though, this will be the seventh consecutive year these two teams have faced each other. And, with only one exception, the home team has won every time. The Bengals hoped to channel their grief over the sudden death of wide receiver Chris Henry into triumph last weekend by clinching their division title against San Diego. But the Chargers had other plans. Henry's funeral is behind them now, and this week's opponent should provide the perfect transition for the Bengals from mourning to celebration. After back–to–back losses to Minnesota and San Diego, the Bengals really need to clinch the AFC North this week. If the Chiefs pull off the upset, the Bengals will face a much higher hill to climb if they must travel to New York next week needing a victory over the Jets to punch their playoff ticket. But I think the Bengals, who have a big advantage over the Chiefs in both team offense and team defense, will prevail.


• Buffalo (5–9) at Atlanta (7–7) — The Bills are definitely out of the hunt for the playoffs. The Falcons probably are, too, although they still retain at least a mathematical chance of tying one or both of the wild–card qualifiers in the NFC. Buffalo hasn't beaten Atlanta since Nov. 12, 1995, but the teams have only played twice since then, and the Bills haven't won in Atlanta since the Nixon administration. Atlanta tight end Tony Gonzalez is six catches away from a milestone and, while that probably isn't sufficient reason to pick a team to win, it is good enough for me. I'll pick Atlanta to win.


• St. Louis (1–13) at Arizona (9–5) — This is a game that hardly seems worth mentioning since all the numbers seem to work against St. Louis and its worst–in–the–NFL record. The Cardinals have won six straight against the Rams, last losing to St. Louis at home on Sept. 24, 2006. Arizona has outperformed St. Louis in both team offense and team defense this season, which should come as no surprise. And the Rams come to the desert with a six–game losing streak. I pick the Cardinals to win by at least 10 points.


• Detroit (2–12) at San Francisco (6–8) — Did you know that Tuesday was the 52nd anniversary of a rare playoff clash between division rivals in the 1950s? In those days, there were only 12 teams in the NFL, divided into two divisions, and the two division winners met in the championship game. There were no wild cards in those days, and, apparently, there was no tiebreaker system, either. In 1957, the Lions and 49ers tied for the Western Division title and had to play a playoff, with the winner facing the Cleveland Browns in the championship game the following week. The Lions won, 31–27, then went on to beat the Browns, 59–14. Detroit hasn't won a pro football championship since, although the Lions have qualified for the playoffs a few times. Clearly, they won't qualify for the playoffs this time, and neither, I'm inclined to say, will the 49ers, although they might still have a slim chance. I'll pick the 49ers to defeat the Lions.


• Denver (8–6) at Philadelphia (10–4) — This may be the most significant game on this week's schedule. Philly is already in the playoffs, but the Eagles are striving to win the NFC East and, as a result, play at least one home game in the postseason. They even have a shot at getting a first–round bye. The Broncos, on the other hand, cannot win their division, but they can grab one of the AFC's wild card berths. Denver's road to the playoffs should be much clearer with a win over Philadelphia, since only Kansas City will remain on its schedule, but beating the Eagles, who are 5–2 at home, will not be easy for the Broncos, who have been inconsistent all season and have lost their last two. I'll take the Eagles.

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• New York Jets (7–7) at Indianapolis (14–0) — Students of pro football are familiar with Joe Namath's "guarantee" that the Jets would defeat the Colts in Super Bowl III. That was in January 1969. Recent history hasn't been kind to the Jets. In fact, you have to go back to 1997 to find the Jets' last win over the Colts. Indianapolis has won six in a row over New York — at the Meadowlands in 2006 (31–28), 2001 (45–24) and 1999 (16–13), at home in 2003 (38–31), 2000 (23–15) and 1998 (24–23). The Jets will be playing for their playoff lives, and the Colts are likely to rest their starters through much of the game. Nevertheless, I'll pick the Colts.


• Dallas (9–5) at Washington (4–10) — Here in Dallas, there was a collective sigh of relief last weekend when the Cowboys defeated the previously unbeaten New Orleans Saints. If it weren't for Christmas, "December" would be a dirty word around here. And recent history hasn't helped December's image in Dallas. But, writes Kevin Sherrington in the Dallas Morning News, "In the throes of their annual month from hell, the Cowboys didn't just shake off a jinx. They may have turned a corner. Convincingly. Dramatically. Finally." Um, well, I'd take it easy on that "turned a corner" talk — at least until we have more evidence. And I say that knowing the Cowboys' next foe is the Washington Redskins, who have struggled this season but only lost by a single point when they came to Dallas last month (so Cowboys fans need not be deceived by the Redskins' lopsided loss to the New York Giants on Monday). The Cowboys have won six of their last 10 games at Washington, but last year's victory snapped a three–year losing streak, and last month's narrow win suggests that the Cowboys take the Redskins lightly at their peril. I'll pick the Cowboys to win — unenthusiastically.

MONDAY

• Minnesota (11–3) at Chicago (5–9) It's probably assumed by most football fans that the Vikings won't have much trouble with the Bears — a team they handled with ease, 36–10, last month. But the Vikings have had their problems in Chicago in recent years. The last time the teams played in Chicago, the Bears won, 48–41. In 2007, the Vikings needed a late field goal to win at Soldier Field. In 2006, en route to the Super Bowl, the Bears beat the Vikings at Soldier Field, 23–13. The year before that, Chicago cruised to a 28–3 win. In 2004, the Bears won, 24–14. In 2003, the Bears won, 13–10. In 2002, the Bears won, 27–23. In 2001, the Bears won, 17–10. This is a different Minnesota team, with a Hall of Fame QB and a lot of talent at other positions as well, but the weather may also be a factor. Currently, the temperature is not expected to get above freezing on Monday (after a week of varying levels of snowfall) — and one must assume it will be even colder when the sun goes down. For a team like the Vikings that plays its home games indoors, that's an additional hurdle. Will that make it a mountain too high? It might, especially if New Orleans beats Tampa Bay and secures homefield through the NFC playoffs in their game on Sunday. Logic tells me, though, that Minnesota, with a team offense and a team defense that are ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL, will defeat Chicago.

Last week: 7–9.

Season: 160–66.

Happy Birthday, Chris Evert

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Chris Evert and President George H.W. Bush
play tennis at Camp David in 1990.

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It may come as a bit of a shock if you're old enough to remember when she was squaring off regularly with Martina Navratilova in Grand Slam tennis tournaments.

But today is Chris Evert's 55th birthday.

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Chris Evert made her Grand Slam debut in the 1971 U.S. Open.

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In the mind's eye, of course, she is still young, still the teen–age Chris Evert who burst onto the sports scene with her famous two–handed backhand in the 1970s.

Evert dominated that decade; according to the Women's Tennis Association, she was the top–ranked singles player in 1975, 1976, 1977, 1980 and 1981. Depending upon the source, she was the top–ranked singles player in 1974 and 1978 as well.

Many young boys of that time had crushes on Evert, but her heart went, initially, to Jimmy Connors, also a star tennis player. It was dubbed a "love match," and the two even competed in mixed doubles in the 1974 U.S. Open, but the relationship did not last. In 1979, Evert married a British tennis player, John Lloyd, and began going by the name of Chris Evert–Lloyd. That marriage ended in 1987.

The next year, Evert married a downhill skier named Andy Mill. The marriage lasted until 2006 and produced three sons.

Evert married for a third time in 2008. Her third husband was golfer Greg Norman, but it was announced a couple of months ago that that marriage, too, was ending.

These days she runs a tennis academy in Boca Raton, Fla., helps coach a high school tennis team and contributes to Tennis Magazine.

Will Colts or Saints Go Undefeated?

At this point in the season, I guess everyone is wondering if the Indianapolis Colts and/or the New Orleans Saints will go undefeated?

From what I have been able to gather, my guess is that the Saints are more likely to go undefeated than the Colts are.

That doesn't mean I think the Saints would beat the Colts if the two teams advance to the Super Bowl. I make that assertion, primarily, because the Colts' management has expressed a desire to put the well–being of the first–teamers ahead of the ego–stroking achievement of a perfect record.

That approach makes sense to me. The Colts have clinched their division title and, along with it, homefield advantage through the playoffs. The only reason to play the starters at all in the final three games is to keep them sharp for the playoffs.

The Saints are nearly to that point, but it still would be possible for the Vikings to overtake them — possible, not probable. Another New Orleans win, coupled with a Minnesota loss, would put New Orleans in position to choose between playing for perfection or resting the starters. That's a choice that would be pretty easy to make with Tampa Bay and Carolina on the schedule for the last two weeks.

Once seedings are settled in the NFC, New Orleans may be more inclined to let the first–teamers have some time off. Until then, I expect them to be going at it full tilt.

In short, if you play fantasy football, I recommend that you find replacements for your Colts but plan to play your Saints — until further notice!

We're down to three weeks in the NFL, and some truths are emerging.

1. Three teams are definitely in the playoffs — Indianapolis, Minnesota and New Orleans.


2. Three teams are almost in the playoffs — defending NFC champ Arizona, San Diego and Cincinnati. The Cardinals could have clinched their division on Monday night, but their loss to the 49ers keeps things in doubt in the NFC West for another week at least.


3. At this point, it would probably take a miracle to get the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers back into the Super Bowl. That's what a five–game losing streak can do to a team.


4. Of the teams that are still in the running, more AFC teams appear to still have a shot at the playoffs than NFC teams.

THURSDAY

• Indianapolis (13–0) at Jacksonville (7–6) — If the Colts go undefeated this season, they will do so in spite of some narrow escapes. One of the most narrow came on Opening Day, when the AFC South rival Jaguars came to town and left with a 14–12 loss. In the weeks that followed, the Colts barely beat Miami (27–23), San Francisco (18–14), Houston (20–17), New England (35–34) and Baltimore (17–15). Now the Colts have a rematch with the Jaguars. Indy's coaches and players apparently care more about having a healthy squad for the playoffs than going 16–0. Now that they have locked up home field through the playoffs, the starters may well be rested extensively in the last three regular–season games — and that may benefit the Jaguars, who face a real challenge for a wild–card berth. Assuming the Colts give Peyton Manning and the rest of the first–teamers the day off, I'll pick Jacksonville to win.

SATURDAY

• Dallas (8–5) at New Orleans (13–0) — The Cowboys haven't enjoyed any success against the Saints in this decade. The last time these teams met was in 2006, when the Saints came to Dallas and snapped the Cowboys' four–game winning streak, 42–17. Two years earlier, the Saints came to Dallas and left with a 27–13 win. You have to go back to 2003 to find the last time the Cowboys played in New Orleans (that, too, was a loss — 13–7 — in the regular–season finale). On Christmas Eve in 1999, Dallas lost, 31–24, in New Orleans. The year before that, they lost a 22–3 decision in New Orleans. In fact, it is necessary to go back to 1994 — Barry Switzer's first year at the helm — to find Dallas' last win over New Orleans (24–16). Not too long ago, the Cowboys looked like a sure thing for the playoffs — but we've been down this road before. I'll pick the Saints.

SUNDAY

• Cleveland (2–11) at Kansas City (3–10) — This game has no real meaning. It will be the fourth time the teams have met since Cleveland resumed its pro football participation in 1999. Two of the games have been close, and the last two have been won by the home team. The Browns won a 31–28 decision in Cleveland in 2006. In 2003, the Chiefs won in Kansas City, 41–20. In 2002, the Chiefs won in Cleveland, 40–39. Neither team has much of an offense (Kansas City is 30th in the NFL, Cleveland is 32nd), and neither team has much of a defense (Kansas City is 30th, Cleveland is 31st). Gotta pick someone so I'll go with the home team — the Chiefs — by a couple of points.


• Arizona (8–5) at Detroit (2–11) — The Cardinals blew their chance to wrap up the NFC West on Monday night. Of course, it's damn near impossible to win a game when you commit seven turnovers. Now San Francisco holds an undisputed tiebreaker over Arizona, having swept the season series, and can win the division if they finished tied for first, but the 49ers will have to run the table, which is a tall order since they must travel to Philadelphia this weekend (although they do face Detroit and St. Louis in the last two games). The Cardinals can clinch the West if they beat Detroit this week and the 49ers lose to the Eagles. Even if San Francisco pulls off the upset against Philadelphia, beating Detroit this week and St. Louis next week would wrap up the division for Arizona. On the other hand, if the 49ers run the table and the Cardinals stumble against either the Lions or the Rams, Arizona will face a must–win situation in the season finale against red–hot Green Bay. For now, I'll pick Arizona to beat Detroit — and put some pressure on San Francisco.


• San Francisco (6–7) at Philadelphia (9–4) — The Eagles must be feeling like Rodney Dangerfield. They've taken the lead in the NFC East, and Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News writes that they're fun to watch but not worthy of a title. Michael Lombardi of NFL.com isn't so sure about that. Historically, the 49ers enjoy a 16–10–1 advantage over the Eagles, but Philly has won the last three regular–season contests and hasn't lost to the 49ers since 2003. To top it off, the Eagles are 4–2 at home while the 49ers are 1–5 on the road. I'll take the Eagles.


• Atlanta (6–7) at New York Jets (7–6) — They say that defense wins championships, and the Jets have the top–rated team defense, as well as the top–rated pass defense, in the NFL. The Jets also hold a three–game winning streak (whereas the Falcons have lost two straight). I'll take the Jets.


• Miami (7–6) at Tennessee (6–7) — It's probably a longshot for Tennessee to get into the playoffs now, even though they ripped the Rams to shreds last weekend. There are five teams ahead of them in the race for two wild–card slots, including Miami. To be in the playoff picture, even as pretenders, the Titans need to make a statement against the Dolphins this weekend. The good news for the Titans is that home field has been kind to teams in this series, and statistics seem to be on their side, too. Tennessee's team offense is 10th in the NFL (Miami's is 18th), and, even though Miami's defense is ranked higher than Tennessee's, it's nearly a draw in that category (the Dolphins are 19th in the NFL, the Titans are 23rd). I'll take the Titans.


• New England (8–5) at Buffalo (5–8) — Few teams have dominated another as completely as New England has dominated Buffalo in this decade. The Patriots have won 17 of the last 18 regular–season games, and the Patriots haven't lost to the Bills since Sept. 7, 2003 (the last time they lost at home was two days before the 2000 presidential election). Buffalo is 2–4 at home, but New England is a pathetic 1–5 on the road (the exception was the Patriots' win at Tampa Bay in October). The Bills only lost by a single point when they traveled to New England on Opening Day. What will happen when the teams play in Buffalo this Sunday (weather forecast — 30% chance of snow with a high of 30°)? I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Buffalo will top the Patriots this Sunday.


• Chicago (5–8) at Baltimore (7–6) — I'm not sure if Chicago was mathematically eliminated from playoff contention when the Bears lost to the Packers last weekend, but if not, it won't take much. The Ravens, however, still have a shot at a wild card, which ought to give them plenty of motivation. At this stage of the season, playoff prospects trump everything else when it comes to motivation; since the Ravens are still in the running and the Bears are not, I'll pick the Ravens.


• Houston (6–7) at St. Louis (1–12) — Houston probably has no chance of getting into the playoffs, but the Texans ought to handle the Rams with no real problem. Houston has a higher–ranked team offense (eighth in the NFL, compared to 25th for St. Louis) and team defense (13th in the NFL, compared to 27th for the Rams). The Rams also have lost five in a row since their only win of the season (a seven–point decision over Detroit) at the start of November. The teams have only met once, with the Rams winning in overtime in 2005. I'll pick the Texans to even the series and remain (at least mathematically) in the playoff race.

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• Oakland (4–9) at Denver (8–5) — As terrible as the Raiders are, they did beat the Broncos the last time they played in Denver. The Broncos have the third–rated defense in the NFL (the Raiders are 28th), which shouldn't face much of a challenge against the next–to–worst offense in the NFL. I'll take Denver.

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• Cincinnati (9–4) at San Diego (10–3) — This is probably the NFL's marquee matchup. The winner will be the odds–on favorite to get a first–round bye with the Colts. And it is possible these teams will face each other in the playoffs, but even if the Bengals win this Sunday and earn homefield advantage, I doubt it will be as cold for a playoff rematch in Cincinnati as it was when the teams squared off there for the AFC title in 1981. Nevertheless, the weather shouldn't be a factor in sunny San Diego this Sunday. The recent history of this series says a team wins two straight, then the other team wins. The Chargers won their last meeting (in 2006) but lost to the Bengals in 2004 and 2003. The Chargers won in 2002 and 2001. Based on that, I would give the edge to San Diego, but there's more evidence on the Chargers' side. In team offense, they're ranked 14th in the NFL (compared to 20th for the Bengals), although Cincinnati has the edge in team defense (the Bengals are fifth in the NFL while the Chargers are 12th). The Chargers, though, are red hot, and I'll pick them to win and remain on course for a first–round bye.


• Tampa Bay (1–12) at Seattle (5–8) — I guess the intriguing angle of this particular matchup is the fact that these two teams came into existence at the same time, in 1976. Recent history has favored the home team, but this series goes in streaks. Is it time for a streak that favors the visitors? Last year, the Bucs beat the Seahawks in Tampa, 20–10. The teams met in Seattle on Opening Day in 2007, and the Seahawks won that game, 20–6. The last time the road team won was in 2006, when Seattle won at Tampa, 23–7. Seattle also won at Tampa in 2004, 10–6. And, 10 years ago, Tampa upended Seattle on the road, 16–3. I'll go with the prevailing streak and pick the Seahawks.


• Green Bay (9–4) at Pittsburgh (6–7) — This game would have had greater playoff implications if the Steelers hadn't lost last week to Cleveland, prompting Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post–Gazette to proclaim the defending Super Bowl champs "losers." That's a conclusion that is difficult to disagree with, given the fact that Pittsburgh has lost to Cleveland, Oakland and Kansas City in its current five–game losing skid. I'll go with the hot team from the frozen tundra — the Packers.


• Minnesota (11–2) at Carolina (5–8) — The series with Minnesota hasn't been pleasant for Carolina in recent years — for several reasons. Last year, the Vikings hosted the Panthers and won, 20–10. In 2006, Carolina lost, 16–13, again in Minneapolis. In 2005, Carolina beat Minnesota in Charlotte, N.C., 38–13, and made the playoffs but lost to Seattle in the NFC championship game. In 2002, Carolina beat Minnesota in the third game of the season to improve to 3–0 but then lapsed into an eight–game losing streak that ultimately landed the Panthers in last place in the NFC South. Things were even worse for Carolina in 2001. The Panthers opened the season with a win over the Vikings but went on to lose the rest of their games and finished the season 1–15. This year, it looks like the Vikings are poised to win their third straight over the Panthers. Team stats certainly support that position. Minnesota is sixth in the NFL in team offense (Carolina is 21st) and sixth in the NFL in team defense (Carolina is 15th). I pick the Vikings to win — and clinch the NFC North.

MONDAY

• New York Giants (7–6) at Washington (4–9) — Filip Bondy of the New York Daily News writes that, after Sunday night's game, Philadelphia owns the Giants. Good thing for New York the season series with the Eagles is over — unless they happen to meet again in the playoffs. But what about woeful Washington? Well, the Giants have won 13 of 19 regular–season contests with the Redskins since the 2000 season, including their game at the Meadowlands earlier this season. But that was then — back when New York jumped to a 5–0 start. They've lost six of their last eight, and, even if they complete the sweep of the Redskins, they are going to need some help to get to the playoffs. I'll pick the Giants to beat the Redskins, but we'll see how things shape up in the final two weeks.

Last week: 13–3.

Season: 153–57.

A First for Alabama

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As I mentioned yesterday, the University of Alabama football program has received just about every honor that is available in college football.

As a team, it has won seven consensus national championships — and, if Alabama beats Texas next month, the Crimson Tide will match all–time leader Notre Dame.

On an individual level, both players and coaches have been honored over the years. Bear Bryant, who coached the Crimson Tide from 1958 to 1982, won the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association's coach of the year award three times — and, since the award was renamed in his honor, one of his successors, Gene Stallings, was the recipient the year he led Alabama to its first — and, so far, only — national title in the post–Bryant era.

Bryant actually did coach a Heisman Trophy winner during his career — Texas A&M halfback John David Crow, who received the award in 1957. But, in spite of the fact that the Crimson Tide won national championships and had numerous All–Americans on its rosters during Bryant's tenure, no Crimson Tide player ever won the Heisman Trophy.

Until last night.

Sophomore Mark Ingram won the closest vote in the history of the Heisman Trophy, narrowly topping Stanford's Toby Gerhart — who led the nation in rushing but played for a football team that lost four games this season.

Ironically, if Gerhart had prevailed, it would have been only the second Heisman awarded to a player from Stanford. Quarterback Jim Plunkett won the Heisman back in 1970.

But it wasn't. The Heisman now takes its place in Alabama's trophy case — perhaps to be joined by another national championship trophy and another Bear Bryant coach of the year award. But even if other Alabama athletes win the Heisman in the years ahead, Ingram was the first.

Who Will Win the Heisman?

This year, for the first time in recent memory, there is some suspense about the outcome of the Heisman Trophy voting.

In many quarters, the favorite is probably Alabama's Mark Ingram, And, after his performance in Alabama's rout of defending national champion Florida in last Saturday's SEC championship game, it's hard to argue the point.

Alabama has won just about everything else over the years. Of course, I suppose that any school that had Bear Bryant as its coach for a quarter of a century was bound to receive just about every honor in college football at one time or another.

But, strangely enough, no 'Bama player has ever won a Heisman Trophy.

Nebraska, on the other hand, has had Heisman winners — three of them, in fact.

And SI.com's Gene Menez thinks Nebraska defensive end Ndamukong Suh is going to walk away with the statue — which would be remarkable on many levels, not the least of which would be the fact that (with the exceptions of sometime–cornerback Charles Woodson in 1997 and sometime–linebacker Ernie Davis in 1961) defensive players are almost never Heisman recipients.

That alone probably makes Suh a sentimental favorite. And his performance against Texas in the Big 12 championship game no doubt endeared many fans to him. Whatever the reason for his ascendance, Drew Sharp writes, for the Detroit Free Press, that Suh adds excitement to the Heisman race. Indeed he does.

But there are other candidates who have been invited to the ceremony in New York tonight. Lenn Robbins of the New York Post says Stanford's Toby Gerhart, the nation's leading rusher, gets his vote.

A strong case can be made for Texas' Colt McCoy, who became the winningest quarterback in college football history this season. I think the case for another quarterback, Tim Tebow, is not as solid, primarily because the numbers he compiled this season did not match the numbers he put up two years ago when he won the Heisman as a sophomore.

Well, whoever wins the trophy, Monte Burke makes a good point when he writes about the Heisman's "curse" in Forbes.

"In the last 20 years, only three Heisman winners have gone on to become true NFL stars," he observes. "The overwhelming majority of winners merely got a quick cup of coffee in the big leagues, then moved on to a new career. Some never even made it that far."

It hasn't always worked out that way. Roger Staubach, for example, won the Heisman in 1963, then put his NFL career on hold while he fulfilled his military obligations. But he led the Dallas Cowboys to their first two Super Bowl victories, as well as two Super Bowl appearances against the juggernaut of the 1970s, the Pittsburgh Steelers. And O.J. Simpson became the first player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season.

But Burke is right when he says most recent Heisman winners haven't made much of a ripple in the NFL pond. For all intents and purposes, a Heisman winner's football career has ended when he was handed the trophy.

Yet, when one looks at this year's field and realizes that all five finalists were invited to tonight's ceremony — an indicator, perhaps, that Stewart Mandel of SI.com may have been on to something when he wrote that this year's vote could be the closest ever — one will see a great deal of talent.

It's hard to imagine that most will not thrive in the pros.

Of course, that doesn't mean that the one who gets the statue tonight will be one of those who thrives.

Spotlight Shines on NFL

I guess it can be argued that, when teams in a professional sport play only 16 games during the regular season, every game is important. There is much truth in that, although the spotlight shines brighter on games that are played in December than it does on games that are played in September.

Perhaps that is because the NFL will have the spotlight mostly to itself for the balance of December. And some NFL teams — and their fans — definitely have reason to be excited. For the first time in a long time.

Well, fans of the Saints and Colts already know they're headed for the playoffs, but lots of fans in lots of places will be keeping an eye on other teams' scores this weekend. It's looking like it might be a photo finish for some of the playoff spots.

TODAY

• Pittsburgh (6–6) at Cleveland (1–11) — If you were going to put together a list of the most celebrated rivalries in the NFL, Pittsburgh–Cleveland might not make your Top 10. But the teams began playing each other in 1950 and, before the Browns were moved to Baltimore and renamed the Ravens, forcing the NFL to capitulate to the demands of irate Clevelanders and form a new Cleveland Browns franchise in 1999, it was a bitter, often competitive, series. In the 1950s and 1960s, the Browns beat the Steelers more than three–quarters of the time. But since the new Browns franchise was formed, Pittsburgh has thoroughly dominated things, winning 19 of the 22 times they have played, including the last 12. Bottom line: Scott Brown of the Pittsburgh Tribune–Review believes the Steelers' hopes are fading, but the defending Super Bowl champs still have a shot at the playoffs. The Browns do not. Historically, Cleveland has a 33–23 edge at home, but the Browns haven't beaten the Steelers there since 2000. I don't think they will win this time, either — but I didn't think the Steelers would lose to the Raiders last week.

SUNDAY

• New Orleans (12–0) at Atlanta (6–6) — Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal was challenged by PolitiFact.com this week for asserting in a radio interview that New Orleans "will go not only undefeated, but all the way through the Super Bowl — something that's never been done before." Perhaps the governor meant that it hasn't been done since the NFL expanded the regular season to 16 games because the 1972 Miami Dolphins won every regular season game and then swept through the playoffs to complete a 17–0 season. The Saints have a two–game winning streak against the Falcons, but they lost the last time they played in the Georgia Dome, on Nov. 9, 2008. Only time will tell if Jindal is right about the Saints; for now, I will predict that they will defeat the Falcons on Sunday.


• Detroit (2–10) at Baltimore (6–6) — The Lions have no shot at the playoffs. Baltimore, however, has an accommodating schedule that might help it overtake one of the top contenders for a wild card in the AFC. The Ravens, whose offense ranks 15th in the NFL (compared to Detroit at 26th) and whose defense ranks 10th in the NFL (compared to Detroit at 30th), need to take advantage of this game, though, and I think they will.


• Green Bay (8–4) at Chicago (5–7) — Green Bay–Chicago is a legendary rivalry in the NFL, and, since 2000, the Packers have had the better end of the deal, winning 11 of 19 contests. But most of those wins came in the early part of the decade. The Bears have had the upper hand in recent years. But not this season. The Packers beat the Bears in the 2009 opener, 21–15, after going 2–6 against Chicago in the previous four seasons. They seem to be running on all cylinders, so I'll pick the Pack to prevail.


• Seattle (5–7) at Houston (5–7) — Since the loser of this game cannot possibly finish the season any better than .500, that team likely will have no chance at the playoffs. It's a little more dire for Seattle than it is for Houston because there are already more 8–4 teams in the NFC than AFC. But .500 teams seldom advance to the playoffs. In their brief history, the Texans have played Seattle once — a 42–10 loss in 2005. Historically, that isn't much to go on. Current statistics are probably a better barometer. The defenses are about the same, but Houston has a decisive edge on offense. The Seahawks are 1–5 on the road this year; the Texans aren't much better at home, with a 2–4 mark. I'll go with Houston — unenthusiastically.


• Denver (8–4) at Indianapolis (12–0) — There was a time, not too long ago, when the Broncos appeared to be spiraling downward and out of playoff contention. Denver now has won two in a row, prompting Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post to assert that Denver is in the driver's seat again — the same place the Broncos were believed to be before they lost four in a row. The Broncos' winning streak is in jeopardy this week, and Denver has to travel to Philadelphia on Christmas weekend, but their remaining home games are against Oakland and Kansas City, two teams Denver has beaten handily already this season. Even the most pessimistic observer must concede that the Broncos are likely to finish at least 10–6, which would leave few teams that might overtake them. But can they stop the Colts? They couldn't the last time these teams played in Indianapolis in 2007, even though Denver jumped out to a 10–0 lead. They couldn't the year before, when the teams met in Denver. In fact, you have to go back to 2003 to find the last time Denver won a regular–season game in Indianapolis. I don't think the Broncos will win this time.


• Miami (6–6) at Jacksonville (7–5) — This is a critical game in the AFC. If Jacksonville loses, several teams (including Miami) will be back in the chase. If Jacksonville loses, several teams will be on the brink of elimination. As odd as it may seem, the Jaguars actually hold the advantage over the Dolphins historically, 2–1, in the regular season (the Jags also won their only postseason encounter), but the teams haven't faced each other since 2006. This season, Jacksonville has been a good bet at home (5–1). The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 2–4 on the road. The Jaguars look like a solid choice in this game.


• Buffalo (4–8) at Kansas City (3–9) — This is a game that really has no bearing on the playoff picture. Can recent series history tell us anything useful? Well, the visiting team lost the last meeting. When these teams met in K.C. last year, Buffalo clobbered the Chiefs, 54–31. The three meetings before that went to the home team. In 2005, the Chiefs lost, 14–3, in Buffalo. Then, in 2002 and 2003, the Chiefs beat the Bills in Kansas City, 17–16 (in 2002) and 38–5, in 2003. I suppose that suggests that last year was the anomaly. But, statistically, it seems to me that the Bills have the advantage. It doesn't seem to be as pronounced on offense — Buffalo is 29th in the NFL and Kansas City is 30th in team offense. But, on team defense, the Bills are 23rd in the NFL while the Chiefs are 31st. On that basis, I pick the Bills to win.


• Cincinnati (9–3) at Minnesota (10–2) — In the aftermath of Sunday night's loss to Arizona, now Minnesota must take on another team that appears to be headed for the playoffs. The good news for the Vikings, though, is that this game will be played at home, where the Vikings are 6–0 this season. I'll take the Vikings to win, although I think the Bengals will give them a good fight.


• Carolina (5–7) at New England (7–5) — In the Boston Herald, Ron Borges writes that the Patriots "are dissolving in front of our eyes." That is a conclusion that must be hard not to reach after last weekend's loss to Miami, although Borges' premise is more long term. He contends the slide has been occurring for several years, thanks to poor choices in the draft. Nevertheless, the Dolphins are now a single game behind the Patriots in the AFC East, although that may change after this weekend. Even if it does, Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald believes the teams are going in opposite directions — and the Dolphins are the ones who are on the rise. He may be right, but I'll take New England over Carolina this Sunday.


• New York Jets (6–6) at Tampa Bay (1–11) — This is the kind of game the Jets must to remain in the playoff picture — especially with games against the Colts and Bengals left on the schedule. On the other hand, the Jets might well beat one or the other at this stage of the season — particularly the Colts, who will be understandably reluctant to put key players at risk before the playoffs begin. But the Jets need to take care of business against the Bucs and, with the highest–rated team defense in the AFC, I think they will.


• St. Louis (1–11) at Tennessee (5–7) — Unless the Titans can win their final four games — and even if they do — getting into the playoffs will be a tough assignment. And the Titans can expect to be challenged in their next two games — against Miami and San Diego. Both of those games, like Sunday's game with the woeful Rams, will be played in Tennessee, where the Titans are currently 3–2. Unfortunately for them, though, if they get into the playoffs, it will be as a wild card and they'll have to play on the road, where they are 2–5. Nevertheless, I'll pick the Titans — if only because it will make next week's game more interesting.



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• Washington (3–9) at Oakland (4–8) — Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Twenty–five years ago, these two teams met in the Super Bowl, which turned into a showcase for Marcus Allen. Today, these teams are footnotes for the 2009 season. They're both probably better than their records indicate — the Raiders, for example, have beaten both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the last three weeks and the Redskins, in addition to beating Denver a month ago, have lost their last two games, against Philadelphia and undefeated New Orleans, by a pair of field goals. But close calls are still losses, and both teams will be watching the playoffs on TV. Who will win on Sunday? Neither team has been terribly impressive on offense, but the Redskins have been better on both sides of the ball. On that basis, I'll pick the visitors from Washington to record their first road win of the season.


• San Diego (9–3) at Dallas (8–4) — Randy Galloway writes, in the Fort Worth Star–Telegram, that Dallas' loss last Sunday to New York marked the re–emergence of Dallas' "December demons." That may be so. With the exception of one game (against Washington on Dec. 27), the remaining schedule looks pretty unforgiving, starting this Sunday with the game against the Chargers, followed by a trip to New Orleans on Dec. 19 and the regular–season finale against Philadelphia on Jan. 3. All in all, it is not inconceivable that the Cowboys, who were 6–2 midway through the season, could finish a hair over .500 — and, depending on how everything else plays out, could miss the playoffs again. In the Jerry Jones era, this will be the fifth meeting between these two teams, and the last three have gone to the visiting team. The Cowboys haven't beaten the Chargers in Dallas since Sept. 9, 1990. I don't think the Chargers, who have won seven in a row, seem to be healthy now and can clinch a playoff spot with some assistance this weekend, will lose this time.


• Philadelphia (8–4) at New York Giants (7–5) — By the time these two tee it up, the outcome of the San Diego–Dallas game should be known. If the Chargers win, the Eagles will have extra motivation, knowing they can take the lead in the NFC East with a victory. The Eagles hammered the Giants in their first meeting, and only two teams in the NFC have scored more than Philly. Even so, New York is eighth in team offense in the NFL while Philadelphia is 11th. Go figure. The Giants also may be more competitive at home than they were on the road, but I'll take Philadelphia to win. Call it a hunch.

MONDAY

• Arizona (8–4) at San Francisco (5–7) — Can San Francisco sweep Arizona? Maybe. The recent history of their series (well, since 2004) has been that one or the other wins both encounters, and the 49ers beat the Cardinals on Opening Day. Do the 49ers have a realistic shot at the playoffs? That's another matter. If they don't beat the Cardinals, they're definitely out of the running for the divisional title — and a wild card is a distinct longshot at best. Arizona has been surprisingly good on the road this season (5–1) so I'll give a slight edge to Arizona.

Last week: 13–3.

Season: 140–52.

Should Texas or TCU Play for the National Title?

The assumption seems to be that Alabama will play Texas for the national championship. And, when the final polls are announced, I'm sure that is how it will play out.

But I disagree with the conclusion, and I think it shows the need for a college playoff system.

If you're going to select two teams to play for the national title without the benefit of a playoff system, I think Alabama deserves to be one of those teams. The Crimson Tide just finished spanking the defending national champion in the SEC title game and had to beat LSU, Ole Miss and Arkansas to get there. Alabama also opened the season with a win over Virginia Tech. Those are quality wins.

But I think Texas is being rewarded for the reputations of teams it faces every year that have been strong in the past and, most likely, will be strong in the future but were not strong this year — like Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas A&M.

When you stack Texas' schedule up against TCU's, I'm inclined to think TCU is more deserving of a berth in the national title game than Texas — or, at the very least, it is not conclusive.

It is not easy for me to say that I believe TCU is more deserving than Texas. I grew up in the Southwest Conference at a time when TCU was widely believed to be one of the worst football teams on the planet. But times have changed, and strength of schedule says a lot.

Based on recent rankings, TCU played and defeated three teams in the Top 25 — Brigham Young, Utah and Clemson. Texas played and defeated two teams in the Top 25 — Oklahoma State and the team the Longhorns barely defeated for the Big 12 championship, Nebraska.

One team, Wyoming, played both schools. The results were nearly identical, but, again, there was a slight edge to TCU. Wyoming lost to Texas, 41–10. TCU beat Wyoming, 45–10.

I've heard various proposals for playoff systems. Among supporters of a playoff system, the big question seems to be how many teams to include. Some folks think it should be four or eight. I think it should be at least 16, but that is a detail that can be worked out once it is finally agreed that a playoff system is really the best way to choose a champion.

I'm not talking about something as huge as the NCAA Tournament. But if one of the concerns is the preservation of the bowls, why couldn't the bowls, most of which are in warm–weather locations, be used as the sites for playoff games?

It seems to me that being part of a playoff system would broaden the appeal of each bowl — under the current arrangement, every postseason game after the conference championship games and before the national championship game are primarily of interest only to each school's fan base and student body.

One of the drawbacks, certainly, would be less time to promote the matchup. But the appeal would more than make up for it, since it would be well known that the winner would advance to the next round of the playoffs.

And a playoff system would give other unbeaten schools, like Cincinnati and Boise State, the chance to make their cases for being included in a national championship game.

Playoff Picture Becoming Clearer in NFL

Five games remain in the NFL's regular season. A lot can happen in five weeks, but we are starting to get an idea of which teams are likely to advance to the postseason and which ones are just about done.

In the AFC, we already know that Indianapolis has clinched its division, and the Colts all but have home field wrapped up. New England and Cincinnati have opened up two–game leads in their divisions. Barring a near total collapse, it looks likely that they will be in the playoffs. So, too, should San Diego be en route to the postseason, even though the Chargers have a one–game lead over Denver.

And, if the season ended today, one of the AFC's wild card slots would go to Denver. The other wild card would go to Pittsburgh, Baltimore or Jacksonville.

In the NFC, no team has clinched its division yet, but the Saints and Vikings look like sure things. Arizona has a two–game lead over San Francisco in the West, and Dallas holds a one–game lead over Philadelphia in the East.

As for the wild cards, Philadelphia and Green Bay would be on their way to the playoffs if the season ended today.

TODAY

• New York Jets (5–6) at Buffalo (4–7) — It seems to me that the loser of this game is out of the playoff race. It will be a longshot for the Bills, even if they beat the Jets — and the Bills did win their first game with the Jets this season. Recent history has shown that one team sweeps the other; the Jets won both games last year, the Bills won both games in 2007. But the teams split in 2006, 2005, 2004 and 2003. The Bills only won by a field goal earlier this year, and their defense is questionable, to say the least. I think the Jets will win and remain in the playoff race.

SUNDAY

• St. Louis (1–10) at Chicago (4–7) — There are five weeks remaining in the regular season, counting this one. I can practically guarantee that almost no one cares what happens in this game. I'll pick the Bears to win, not necessarily because they're good but because the Rams are bad.


• New England (7–4) at Miami (5–6) — Miami holds the tiebreaker over the Jets, having won both of their encounters, so if the teams tie for a wild–card slot, the Dolphins have the edge. But they have to get past the Patriots, who are likely to be in a foul mood after losing to New Orleans on Monday. I'm guessing they won't — and the Dolphins can start making plans for next season.


• Philadelphia (7–4) at Atlanta (6–5) — The Eagles haven't lost to the Falcons since the opening weekend of 2005. If the Falcons win, they're in the wild–card race. If they lose, they're probably out of the running, with a game against New Orleans coming up next week and too many other teams to overcome in the final month of the season. In this decade, the Patriots and Steelers have been regarded as the most successful NFL franchises because of their Super Bowl victories, but a good case can be made for the Eagles, who were fixtures in the NFC Championship game for several years. Even when they haven't been one of the finalists in the NFC, the Eagles have been consistent contenders who know how to turn up the heat in the cold of December. I pick the Eagles to win.


• New Orleans (11–0) at Washington (3–8) — New Orleans looked unbeatable in its 38–17 win over New England on Monday night, writes Don Banks of Sports Illustrated. And I won't argue the point. Considering that the Patriots have won three Super Bowls in this decade, it was clearly a signature win for the Saints, who have yet to play in their first Super Bowl. The Saints may not finish the regular season undefeated, and, if they do, they may not get through the playoffs. But I don't believe Washington will hand New Orleans its first loss of this season.


• Tennessee (5–6) at Indianapolis (11–0) — Last weekend, the Colts became the first NFL team to punch their ticket for the playoffs. The Titans are still entertaining hopes of being in the playoffs as a wild card team. Unlike the Saints, who have the 10–1 Vikings breathing down their necks in the race for homefield advantage in the NFC, the Colts have some wiggle room, and I expect them to rest their starters as much as possible until such time as the homefield race tightens up in the AFC. I expect the Titans to go all out, and I'll take Tennessee as an upset special.

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• Oakland (3–8) at Pittsburgh (6–5) — As much as I'd like to see some real drama, like the "Immaculate Reception," in this game, I figure the Steelers are going to win fairly easily and improve their chances of being in the playoffs.


• Denver (7–4) at Kansas City (3–8) — Honestly, I don't think this will affect the outcome at all, but Kansas City is going to retire Derrick Thomas' number at halftime on Sunday. It is definitely the thing to do, but I have to wonder if it isn't several years too late. Thomas has been dead nearly 10 years. I don't think anyone who plays for the Chiefs today was his teammate. How much of a motivator can it be? Denver, on the other hand, is coming off an impressive win over the Giants. The Broncos have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, and I expect them to handle the Chiefs.


• Tampa Bay (1–10) at Carolina (4–7) — This game matches the St. Louis–Chicago game in the "who cares?" category. Carolina has beaten Tampa Bay in their last two meetings, and the Panthers haven't lost at home to the Bucs since Sept. 30, 2007. I pick the Panthers to win.


• Detroit (2–9) at Cincinnati (8–3) — This is a mismatch. The Lions are ready for the season to be over. The Bengals are looking ahead to the playoffs. Detroit has given up more points than any other team in the NFL, and the Lions are winless on the road. It's not much of a reach to pick the Bengals to win.


• Houston (5–6) at Jacksonville (6–5) — The Texans have been competing since 2002. They haven't qualified for the playoffs, but they have finished at .500 each of the last two seasons. Can they do it a third straight year? They might — they have Seattle, St. Louis and Miami left on their schedule — but it's hard for me to see how they can snap a three–game losing streak in a trip to Jacksonville. Besides, as I already pointed out, the Jaguars are in the playoff chase, and they need this win with Indianapolis and New England remaining on their schedule. I pick Jacksonville.


• San Diego (8–3) at Cleveland (1–10) — The Browns are winless at home and they are only averaging about 11 points per game. Meanwhile, no team in the AFC — not even the unbeaten Colts — has scored more than the Chargers, who are 4–1 at home and riding a six–game winning streak. I pick the Chargers.

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• Dallas (8–3) at New York Giants (6–5) — The Cowboys lost to the Giants earlier this season in Dallas' first regular–season game in the new Cowboys Stadium, and now they have the opportunity to virtually eliminate New York from the playoff picture. The history of the series at New York has been mostly close, although you couldn't tell it from the results of the last couple of meetings at the Meadowlands. The last time Dallas played at New York, the Giants romped to a 35–14 victory. In 2007, the Cowboys broke a halftime tie at the Meadowlands and went on to claim a 31–20 win. In 2006, the Cowboys won at New York on a last–second field goal. The year before, the Giants topped the visiting Cowboys, 17–10. In 2004, the Giants won, 28–24. In 2003, the Cowboys emerged with a 35–32 win. Tim Smith of the New York Daily News says this will be an opportunity to see if the Giants have a pulse. I think it will be close again, but, given Dallas' dismal record in December, I'm going to say the Giants will win by a single point.


• San Francisco (5–6) at Seattle (4–7) — The 49ers started the season with a 3–2 record (including a home win over Seattle), but they've been staggering since their bye week, winning two of six contests. They still have a shot at the playoffs, with Detroit and St. Louis on their schedule in the final two weeks, but even with wins against the Seahawks, Lions and Rams, the 49ers will need to beat either Arizona or Philadelphia to finish above .500. I don't know if they will be able to do that. Can they win at Seattle? Well, they've struggled on the road, while home has been fairly kind to the Seahawks. This may be a modest upset, but I'll pick Seattle to win.


• Minnesota (10–1) at Arizona (7–4) — This may be a preview of the playoffs. Of course, the only way the two could meet in Arizona in the postseason would be if the Vikings go on an unexpected losing skid while the Cardinals win practically every game remaining on their schedule. Last year, the teams played in Arizona in December, and the Vikings cruised to a 35–14 win over the eventual NFC champs. In 2006, the Vikings won a much closer contest in Minneapolis, 31–26. The Vikings' last loss to the Cardinals came in the 2003 season finale — a defeat that cost the Vikings a slot in the playoffs. This season, Arizona has struggled at home (2–3). With Minnesota's potent offense, I pick the Vikings to win.

MONDAY

• Baltimore (6–5) at Green Bay (7–4) — As nonconference opponents, these teams seldom face each other. This will be their first meeting since 2005, when the Ravens pounded the Packers, 48–3. But it should be noted that the Packers went 4–12 that year — and the game was played in Baltimore. The last time the teams played in Green Bay was Oct. 14, 2001, and the Packers prevailed, 31–23. Prior to that, the Packers beat the Ravens at Lambeau Field on Oct. 25, 1998. History indicates, therefore, that the home team should win, and, with Aaron Rodgers, one of the NFC's top quarterbacks running the Green Bay offense, I'm inclined to think that will be the case on Monday night. I'll take Green Bay.

Last week: 14–2.

Season: 127–49.

There's a Lot on the Line in the Top 25

It's conference championship week — plus a couple of coaching vacancies at a couple of prominent schools, Notre Dame and Florida State.

Time was, the Irish and the Seminoles seemed to be permanent members of college football's elite. They may return to that status, but it will be under different coaches.

This weekend, the focus is on conference title games and the final regular–season contests in conferences that don't play championship games. We'll find out who will play for the national title next month, and we'll find out where the rest of the bowl eligible teams will go during the holidays. We might also get a handle on how the Heisman race is shaping up.

There's a lot on the line in college football in the next several days.

Eleven ranked teams are off this weekend. Fourth–ranked TCU, #7 Ohio State, #9 Penn State, #10 Iowa, #11 Virginia Tech, #13 BYU, #14 LSU, #17 Miami (Florida), #21 Oklahoma State, #24 Stanford and #25 Utah are idle.

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• SEC Championship: #3 Alabama vs. #1 Florida, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS — This isn't quite a #1 vs. #2 showdown, but it's clearly the game of the week. The winner will be 13–0 and headed for the national championship game, probably against Texas. It's a rematch of last year's SEC title game, which was won by Florida, 31–20. Alabama doesn't have a great record against Florida in the conference championship game, losing in 1996, 1994 and 1993. But the Crimson Tide won the first SEC title game against Florida, exactly 17 years earlier on Dec. 5, 1992, and went on to win the national title with a victory over Miami (Florida) in the Sugar Bowl. I give a narrow edge to Florida on offense, even though Alabama has the leading Heisman candidate this time, and I give a narrow edge to Alabama on defense. Bottom line: I pick Florida by a field goal.

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• Big 12 Championship: #20 Nebraska vs. #2 Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — It's been a long time since Nebraska played Texas for the Big 12 championship. The last time was Dec. 4, 1999. But that should be a memorable day in Cornhusker football history because it is the only time Nebraska has beaten Texas since the Longhorns have been a part of the conference. They've played each other seven other times, all Texas victories (including the first Big 12 championship game in 1996). On many occasions, the score has been close. But "close" simply hasn't been good enough for longtime Nebraska fans. Denying Texas a conference crown, a perfect record and, possibly, a berth in the national championship game might be in the ballpark for 'Husker fans, and college football fans who despise the BCS (like me) would be pleased to see a lesser school, like TCU or Cincinnati or Boise State, extended an invitation to play either Florida or Alabama for the national title. But I don't think it will happen. Quarterback Colt McCoy and receiver Jordan Shipley have propelled a potent Texas offense that is averaging 43 points per game, and, even though Nebraska has only allowed one foe (Texas Tech) to exceed 30 points this season, I don't see how Nebraska can stop Texas' offense — short of injuring the Longhorns' star players. That's always a possibility in a football game, but it's something that hasn't happened yet. Assuming that it won't happen on Saturday, I pick Texas to win.


• #5 Cincinnati at #15 Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC — Until last year, Pittsburgh had won each time the schools had faced each other since becoming conference rivals. This won't be an actual conference championship game, like the ones being played in the SEC and the Big 12. It just sort of worked out that way. And I'll give the advantage to Cincinnati. The defenses look about even, but Cincy has a decided edge on offense, even though Pitt QB Bill Stull is rated the league's best and Cincinnati's Tony Pike is rated second (presumably because he missed some playing time during the season).


• New Mexico State at #6 Boise State — I really don't think New Mexico State, with its 3–9 record, presents much of a hurdle for 12–0 Boise State, especially since Boise has the WAC's top–rated QB (Kellen Moore), the third– and fourth–rated receivers (Titus Young and Austin Pettis) and the fifth–rated rusher (Jeremy Avery). This will be the 10th time they have met since 1996 (all Boise victories), and Boise State has hung shutouts on NMSU in the last two games (49–0 last year, 58–0 the year before). I don't know if this year's game will be another shutout, but I pick Boise to win by double digits.


• #16 Oregon State at #8 Oregon, Thursday at 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — This has been a pretty competitive series over the years and, this year, the winner will be headed for Pasadena to face Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. It's been a long time since either school went to the Rose Bowl — Oregon's last appearance was on Jan. 2, 1995, and Oregon State hasn't played in the Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1965. Oregon State boasts the Pac–10's top passer (Sean Canfield) and top receiver (James Rodgers), and both teams have running backs (OSU's Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon's LaMichael James) who are averaging 119 yards a game. From 1997–2006, the trend was for the home team to win, but the visiting team has won the last two encounters. I'm going to predict that the home team will be back on top this year — and Oregon will advance to the showdown with Ohio State.


• ACC Championship: Clemson vs. #12 Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — This has been a pretty even series, with Georgia Tech holding an 11–9 advantage in the last 20 years. Neither team has won an ACC Championship game, which was played for the first time following the 2005 season. In fact, this is Clemson's first appearance in it — although the Tigers aren't strangers to ACC titles. They won five of them in the 1980s, then tapered off considerably with one league title in the 1990s. Tech lost the only time it played for the conference crown (in 2006), and the Yellow Jackets won or shared only two ACC titles prior to that. Recent history has been on Tech's side; the Yellow Jackets have won four of the last five meetings. I'll go with Tech.


• Conference USA Championship: East Carolina vs. #18 Houston, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — East Carolina is 5–4 against Houston since the Cougars began playing in the conference in 1996. Both schools have played for and won the conference title in recent years. UH topped Southern Mississippi in 2006, while the Pirates are the defending champs, having beaten Tulsa last year. I think Houston will win by six points.


• Arizona at #19 USC, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Nothing is really on the line in this game. Well, there's that seven–game winning streak USC has going. Both teams are headed for a bowl game, but neither has a shot at the Rose Bowl. Arizona has had a better offense this year. USC has had the stronger defense. With the defensive and homefield advantages, I will pick USC to improve to 9–3 while Arizona will finish 7–5.


• #22 California at Washington, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on CSNCAL — Washington has only beaten Cal once in their last seven meetings, but that victory came at home, which may help the Huskies. Cal, however, has been better on offense and defense and hopes to be 9–3 when the game is over. Washington, meanwhile, has no hope of being bowl eligible and is probably eager to simply get the season over with. I'll pick Cal.


• #23 West Virginia at Rutgers, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN — West Virginia has beaten Rutgers for 14 straight years. The Mountaineers have won whether Rutgers was having a good season or not. They've had some close calls and some lopsided wins. But this year, Rutgers has scored more points than West Virginia, and its defense has allowed fewer points. Their quarterbacks are about even, but Rutgers has the league's leading receiver (Tim Brown) and West Virginia has the Big East's second–leading rusher (Noel Devine). Who will prevail? I'll give a slight edge to the home team.

Last week: 15–4.

Season: 198–47.