An Early Peek at the Prospective Playoff Field

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The college football playoff rankings haven't started coming out yet — the first one is slated to be released on Halloween — so the only clues as to who we may see playing in early January come from the polls.

And current polls are suggesting that Alabama (of course) will be one of the four teams in the New Year's Day semifinals. Probably the top seed. The third–ranked Georgia Bulldogs, who are the presumptive champs of the SEC East, could shake things up by beating Alabama in the SEC championship game. They don't figure to be in the national Final Four unless they manage to do that.

There will probably be a representative from the Big Ten, and Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin are the leading candidates for that. Penn State and Ohio State face each other this weekend, and the winner will likely be in the driver's seat in the Big Ten East (although #16 Michigan State will face both in the first couple of weeks of November and may grab the top spot on the field).

Wisconsin leads the Big Ten West and is not scheduled to play any of the Big Ten East contenders in the regular season. Logic says that whoever survives the conference championship game between Wisconsin and one of those other three teams will be in the playoff field.

It seems likely that the Big 12 will be represented in the Final Four, too, and right now that slot would have to go undefeated and fourth–ranked TCU. The Frogs are 4–0 in the Big 12, and there are a whole bunch of teams who are a single game back at 3–1 — #10 Oklahoma, #11 Oklahoma State, #22 West Virginia and #25 Iowa State. TCU plays Iowa State on Saturday, then Oklahoma on Nov. 11. The Frogs have already beaten Oklahoma State.

The fourth and final slot should go to the conference in which the defending national champion resides — the Atlantic Coast Conference. The champions, the Clemson Tigers, are in a battle with #14 North Carolina State for the lead in the ACC's Atlantic Conference. If they survive that, they probably will face the currently eighth–ranked team, Miami (Florida), in the ACC's title tilt.

In the ACC's other division, Miami could have problems of its own with its leading challenger, unranked Georgia Tech, who faces Clemson this weekend. Tech already lost to Miami (by a single point) and needs Miami to lose at least twice for Tech to sneak in and grab the Coastal Division crown. A win over Clemson would give Tech momentum and national prestige, but Tech will need help from Miami if it is to compete for the national title.

Idle: #1 Alabama, #19 Auburn, #23 LSU

Thursday

• #20 Stanford at Oregon State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford holds a seven–game winning streak against Oregon State and has won more than two–thirds of the games these schools have played against each other since 1919.
  
  What's more Stanford is a three–touchdown favorite to win this time.
  
  Good enough for me. I pick Stanford.

Friday

• Tulane at #24 Memphis, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Memphis has won 10 in a row against Tulane and hasn't lost at home to Tulane since 1998.
  
  The oddsmakers have established Memphis as a 10½–point favorite.
  
  I think the choice is clear. I pick Memphis.

Saturday

• #2 Penn State at #6 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This is probably the game of the week.
  
  Penn State beat Ohio State last year, but now the Nittany Lions face the challenge of doing something they haven't done in nearly 40 years — beat Ohio State in consecutive seasons.
  
  Can they do it? The oddsmakers don't think so. They made Ohio State a 6½–point favorite. But I do think they can do it. I make Penn State an upset special.
• #3 Georgia at Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: When the season began, this looked as if it might be the game of the year in the SEC East.
  
  But in advance of this year's game, the speculation has been about the future of Florida's football coach. Of all the hot seats in college football, his may be the hottest right now.
  
  Florida has beaten Georgia three straight times, but I suspect that the Bulldogs have the momentum. My choice is Georgia.
• #4 TCU at #25 Iowa State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Few people would have picked Iowa State to be ranked at this point in the season. In fact, few people probably would have picked Iowa State to be ranked at any point in the season.
  
  And yet here they are.
  
  The Cyclones had better enjoy it while they can, though. TCU leads the series 7–1, and the Frogs have looked pretty good. But the Cyclones haven't been too shabby, either, upsetting Oklahoma a week before the Sooners were to play their rivals from the University of Texas.
  
  TCU is only favored by 6½ points.
  
  So I'm going to do what few people are probably doing. I pick Iowa State in an upset special.
• #5 Wisconsin at Illinois, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically this has been a tight series with Wisconsin holding a 40–36–7 advantage.
  
  But the Badgers have seized the lead in recent years, winning the last seven in a row and 11 of the last 12 meetings.
  
  Wisconsin is favored by more than three touchdowns. I have to pick Wisconsin.
• Georgia Tech at #7 Clemson, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Over the years, these schools have faced each other 80 times, and Tech holds nearly a 2–to–1 advantage in the series.
  
  But most of Tech's wins came before the teams became conference rivals. In recent years Clemson has won four of the last five over Tech, and the Tigers are favored to win this one by more than two touchdowns.
  
  I have to take Clemson.
• #8 Miami (Fla.) at North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is a pretty competitive series.
  
  Miami had a chance to even things up last year but lost at home. Now the Hurricanes travel to North Carolina, where they have struggled in the past but have won the last two times they played there.
  
  Oddsmakers say that Miami will win by 20 points, and I think Miami will win as well — but that does not mean they should take the Tar Heels lightly.
• #14 North Carolina State at #9 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: North Carolina State probably enjoys a unique status — the Wolfpack may be the only team that has played Notre Dame more than once and has not lost to the Irish yet.
  
  They first met in the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day in 2003, which N.C. State won 28–6. Then the Wolfpack won at home last year 10–3.
  
  The oddsmakers think that will change. They have made Notre Dame a 7½–point favorite this time.
  
  As the rankings suggest, this ought to be a good game. I give the edge to the home team, Notre Dame.
• Texas Tech at #10 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: You can always expect a lot of scoring when these two teams meet.
  
  Last year was the wildest yet, with OU surviving by 66–59.
  
  The oddsmakers clearly expect the Sooners to do some scoring. They made OU a 20–point pick at home, where they have lost to Tech only twice in a dozen previous meetings.
  
  I think it will be closer than that, but I agree that Oklahoma will win.
• #11 Oklahoma State at #22 West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Oklahoma State evened up this series at four wins apiece with the Cowboys' 37–20 victory in Stillwater last year.
  
  But now the scene shifts to Morgantown, which is a tough place for visitors to play.
  
  Oddsmakers have made OSU a 7½–point pick to win for the third straight time against West Virginia.
  
  But I'm going to take West Virginia in an upset special.
• UCLA at #12 Washington, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Washington has had its moments in this series that dates to 1932, but the Bruins have tended to hold the upper hand.
  
  The latest trend has the Bruins winning 13 of the last 16 meetings — but all three of the Huskies' wins came when they were playing at home, as they are this year.
  
  And the Huskies are favored to win this time by 17 points.
  
  UCLA has been questionable at times this season, and I have to think that Washington will win this one.
• Duke at #13 Virginia Tech, 6:20 p.m. (Central) on ACCNE: It should come as no surprise that Tech leads this series, but it might surprise you to know that Duke was the dominant one in the first half of the 20th century.
  
  But between 1982 and 2012, Tech seized control of the series with 12 straight wins.
  
  The teams have met four times since with both teams winning twice. While Tech won last year's meeting, the margin was only three points.
  
  And that was the widest margin of victory in those four games. That suggests that this year's game might be close, too — but the oddsmakers don't think so. They pick Tech by 15½ points.
  
  I'm inclined to pick Virginia Tech as well.
• #15 Washington State at Arizona, 8:30 p.m. (Central): Arizona has dominated this series, but Washington State has won three of the last four meetings. And last year's outcome was the worst for Arizona fans — a 69–7 drubbing.
  
  Washington State has a two–game winning streak at Arizona, and Washington State is a three–point pick to make it a three–game winning streak. This will be the 43rd meeting between these schools, and Washington State has only won three in a row against Arizona once.
  
  I pick Washington State.
• #16 Michigan State at Northwestern, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically Michigan State has beaten Northwestern nearly 75% of the time, but Northwestern has been competitive in recent years. In fact, the Wildcats won 54–40 at East Lansing last year.
  
  But that leads me to one of the quirks of this series. The Wildcats actually fared better in East Lansing than they have at home. Michigan State has won five in a row at Northwestern, and the oddsmakers have made the Spartans 2½–point favorites to make that six in a row.
  
  I'm inclined to look at last season's 3–9 campaign as an anomaly for the Spartans, who have been much more likely to log 10 wins or more in a season in recent years.
  
  So while it is tempting to take Northwestern as an upset special, I have to go with Michigan State in this one.
• Houston at #17 South Florida, 2:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Both teams are 1–1 at each other's home field.
  
  South Florida is a 10½–point favorite. I can go along with that. South Florida is the pick.
• Austin Peay at #18 Central Florida, 4 p.m. (Central): There really isn't much to say about this one.
  
  Except ...
  
  Central Florida should win.
• #21 Southern Cal at Arizona State, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Southern Cal leads this series 21–12, but the Trojans largely built their lead by sweeping the annual showdowns between 2000 and 2010.
  
  The series was competitive between 1978 and 1999, just as it has been since 2011, a period in which each team has beaten the other three times.
  
  It is hard to get a reading on Southern Cal. Some weeks the Trojans look invincible, but then there are weeks when they look incapable of almost anything.
  
  The oddsmakers favor Southern Cal by 2½ points, but I'm going to take Arizona State in an upset special.

Last week: 15–2

Overall: 131–28

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 1–2

Overall upset specials: 5–14

There Were Upsets A-Plenty Last Week; What Does This Week Hold?

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I got both of my upset specials last week, but I could hardly miss. There were upsets galore in the Top 25, starting with the two games played on Friday night — both defending national champion Clemson and Washington State bit the dust, and there were even more upsets the following day.

As you would expect, that led to a considerable shakeup in the rankings. Alabama remained on top, of course, but everything was shuffled after that. Yes, sir, there was a major makeover in the rankings this week, and it is quite possible we will see even more of a shakeup this week.

It might be a good week for a team to have off — and, as it turns out, six of the Top 25 teams are idle this week — including a couple of teams that fell victim to upsets last week.

Idle: #3 Georgia, #6 Ohio State, #7 Clemson, #12 Washington, #16 North Carolina State, #22 Stanford

Thursday

• #25 Memphis at Houston, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I advise the student newspaper at one of the local community colleges. A fellow who advises with me is a native of Memphis, and he's proud of the Tigers' performance in football so far this year.
  
  Remarkably, Memphis comes into this game a 2½–point underdog, but that's OK. I'll go with Memphis as an upset special.

Saturday

• Tennessee at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Tennessee has lost 10 in a row to Alabama and hasn't won at Tuscaloosa since 2003.
  
  The oddsmakers don't think the Vols are likely to win this one, either. They have made Tennessee a 36–point underdog.
  
  Yep. I pick Alabama.
• #19 Michigan at #2 Penn State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This has to be the marquee matchup of the week.
  
  Common sense tells you that the winner of the Big Ten is likely to end up in the national championship playoff in January — unless that champion has two losses. The Wolverines already have one loss (to Michigan State) with confrontations with Wisconsin and Ohio State still on the schedule. Penn State is undefeated, but the Nittany Lions must face Michigan State and Ohio State in the weeks immediately after their game with the Wolverines.
  
  Clearly, neither team can afford to lose this one — but just as clearly someone will.
  
  Penn State is favored by 10, but I'm thinking that Michigan will win this one in an upset special.
• Kansas at #4 TCU, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Horned Frogs are favored by 37½ points in this game.
  
  And it shouldn't be a surprise when TCU wins this game handily.
• Maryland at #5 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: This is only the third time these schools have faced each other. Wisconsin won the first two meetings by impressive margins.
  
  The oddsmakers think the same thing will happen this time. They have made Wisconsin a 24½–point favorite. Sounds right. I pick Wisconsin.
• Syracuse at #8 Miami (Fla.), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Miami has won 13 of 15 meetings with Syracuse since 1990, and the oddsmakers expect Miami to win again.
  
  Now, Syracuse did defeat the defending national champion Clemson Tigers last week, but I just don't think the Orange can beat two Top 10 teams in a row. My choice is Miami.
• #9 Oklahoma at Kansas State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Since Kansas State beat Oklahoma 35–7 in the 2003 Big 12 championship game, the Sooners have beaten Kansas State in eight of 10 meetings.
  
  They're favored to win this time by two touchdowns. OK. I take Oklahoma.
• #10 Oklahoma State at Texas, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Until fairly recently Texas dominated this series.
  
  But the Cowboys have won five of the last seven meetings, and they have won four in a row in Austin.
  
  Oklahoma State is favored to win this one, too — by 6½ points. I think that is being generous. I expect Oklahoma State to win by a wider margin.
• #11 Southern Cal at #13 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: There are many rivalries in college football, but only a handful stand as the elite rivalries, the ones that define what a Saturday in the autumn months is all about.
  
  The Southern Cal–Notre Dame rivalry is one of those rivalries — with roots in the Knute Rockne era.
  
  Historically the home field favors the home team. Southern Cal was at home last year and beat Notre Dame by nearly three touchdowns. But Notre Dame has won the last two at South Bend and is favored to win again, this time by 3½ points. I hope that means it will be a good game.
  
  I expect Notre Dame to win.
• North Carolina at #14 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: I expect this to be a good game.
  
  Virginia Tech has roughly a 2–to–1 advantage in the all–time series, but they're knotted at 4–4 in games played at Virginia Tech.
  
  The oddsmakers don't think it will be so good. They pick Tech by 21 points. And I have to admit that, even though their all–time record in Blacksburg isn't bad, I don't think the Tar Heels have the horses to stay with Tech for 60 minutes.
  
  My pick is Virginia Tech.
• Colorado at #15 Washington State, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The pattern of the last six games in this series has been that the teams alternate as the winner.
  
  Colorado won last season's meeting so that should mean that Washington State will win this time, right? The oddsmakers think so, too. They have established Washington State as a 10–point favorite.
  
  I also think Washington State will win.
• #16 South Florida at Tulane, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools have never faced each other before, but I have the feeling it could be a bit one–sided.
  
  So do the oddsmakers. They have made South Florida an 11½–point favorite. Good enough for me. I take South Florida.
• Indiana at #18 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Until last year, Indiana had lost 11 of the last 12 meetings with Michigan State. But the Hoosiers won, 24–21.
  
  That game, though, was played at home. This game will be played in East Lansing, where Indiana hasn't won since Nov. 10, 2001.
  
  The oddsmakers don't think the Hoosiers will win this time, either. The Spartans are favored by 6½ points. While it is tempting to pick the Hoosiers to beat the Spartans for the second straight time, which they haven't done since the late '60s, my choice is Michigan State.
• #20 Central Florida at Navy, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools.
  
  Central Florida is favored by a touchdown, but Navy was in the Top 25 before losing to Memphis last week.
  
  I like Navy as an upset special.
• #21 Auburn at Arkansas, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Auburn is favored by 15½ points.
  
  As much as I would like to see the Razorbacks turn things around, they won't do it this week. My pick is Auburn.
• #23 West Virginia at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central): These teams have met five times since becoming conference rivals, and each time they have played, the home team has been the winner.
  
  But winless Baylor really doesn't seem likely to beat West Virginia — unless the Mountaineers get caught looking ahead to Oklahoma State next week. West Virginia is favored by 9 points. I'll take West Virginia.
• #24 LSU at Ole Miss, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: LSU has the upper hand in the all–time series, and the Tigers are favored to win this one by 6½ points.
  
  But the Rebels have beaten the Tigers three of the last four times LSU has visited Ole Miss.
  
  I think it could be close — maybe even closer than the spread — but I think LSU will prevail.

Last week: 18–3

Overall: 116–26

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 2–0

Overall upset specials: 4–12

The Sooners and 'Horns Are Back in Town

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I've never been a football coach, but I would guess that the last thing you would want your team to do the week before the game with probably your school's biggest rival would be to lose a game.

Yet that is exactly what the Oklahoma Sooners did last week. Ranked third in the nation at the time, the Sooners lost to Iowa State, a perennial doormat in the old Big Eight and now the Big 12. The Cyclones won in Norman for the first time since 1990 and beat the Sooners for only the second time since the Kennedy administration.

The now 12th–ranked Sooners are in Dallas this weekend for the annual grudge match with the University of Texas. And, as I say, I wouldn't want to go into that game on the heels of a loss.

But that ain't necessarily so. The last six times that OU came into the Texas game following a loss, the Sooners wound up the winners. You have to go back to 1999 to find the last time OU lost the game before the Texas game and then went on to lose the Texas game as well. (By the way, 1999 was Bob Stoops' first season as OU's head coach. He retired earlier this year as one of four OU head coaches with at least 100 career victories.)

Still, I don't think any coach would recommend losing before a big rivalry game — or at any other time, for that matter.

Idle: #3 Penn State, #17 Virginia Tech, #19 Notre Dame

Friday

• #2 Clemson at Syracuse, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The oddsmakers established Clemson as a three–touchdown favorite shortly after the most recent rankings were revealed.
  
  If the Tigers win, it would be their fifth straight win over Syracuse. A Clemson win isn't hard to accept — nor is the possibility of Clemson winning by 21 points. After all, the Tigers beat Syracuse last year 54–0.
  
  I pick Clemson to win.
• #9 Washington State at California, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: California has dominated this series, especially lately, winning 10 of the last 12.
  
  But Washington State turned the tables on Cal last year, winning at home by four touchdowns. Now the challenge is to win in a place where, historically, WSU wins only 30% of the time.
  
  The oddsmakers think WSU can do it. They have made the Cougars 14–point favorites. I think Washington State will win.

Saturday

• Arkansas at #1 Alabama, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I got my bachelor's degree at the University of Arkansas, and I have been a Razorback fan all my life.
  
  There is nothing I would like more than to see the Hogs beat Alabama. But I have to be realistic. Arkansas has lost 10 in a row to Alabama and hasn't won at Tuscaloosa since 2003 — and Alabama was established as a 30½–point favorite last weekend.
  
  It only makes sense to pick Alabama.
• #4 Washington at Arizona State, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Washington snapped a 10–game losing streak against Arizona State with its 44–18 win at home last year.
  
  But this game is at Arizona State, and the Sun Devils haven't lost to the Huskies there since October 2001.
  
  The Huskies are heavily favored this time, though, and I will go along with that. Washington will win.
• Missouri at #5 Georgia, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Georgia is 5–1 all time against Missouri, but Mizzou's only win in the series came at Georgia.
  
  Could it happen again? Nah. The pick is Georgia.
• Purdue at #6 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The Boilermakers have lost 11 in a row to the Badgers, and Wisconsin is a 17–point pick to win again.
  
  I'll go with the favorite. Wisconsin is the pick.
• #7 TCU at Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: Not so long ago, this would have been a great game, but K–State hasn't held up its end of the deal, losing to Vanderbilt and Texas.
  
  TCU is a 6½–point pick to avenge last year's 30–6 loss at home, which knotted the all–time series at 5–5. The Frogs are better this year than they were last year, and they won the last time they played at Kansas State so I will pick TCU in this one.
• #8 Ohio State at Nebraska, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: This would have been a great game if it had been played when both these teams were at the top of the polls.
  
  But the prime time for that probably would have been in the 1970s. The first two meetings between these schools were played in the '50s, and the other three have been played since 2011.
  
  Ohio State won by 59 points in their meeting at Columbus last year, and the Buckeyes just might win by that many this year. They are favored by 24½ points.
  
  That is good enough for me. My pick is Ohio State.
• Georgia Tech at #10 Miami (Fla.), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It may surprise you to know that this series is all knotted up at 11–11 — until you realize that more than half of Tech's victories came before Miami won its first national championship in 1983.
  
  Miami has won seven of the last eight against Tech, though, and is favored to win this one by 6½ points. I, too, expect Miami to win.
• #11 Auburn at LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: LSU has won nearly 60% of the time these schools have faced each other, but Auburn won last year.
  
  In fact, Auburn has won two of the last three meetings, but both were played at Auburn. LSU has beaten Auburn eight straight times in Baton Rouge, though.
  
  Auburn is favored by a touchdown, but I'm going to take LSU in an upset special (even though, historically speaking, it really wouldn't be an upset).
• #12 Oklahoma vs. Texas at Dallas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Well, not much to add to what I have already said except that OU is favored by nine points.
  
  I expect Oklahoma to prevail.
• #23 Utah at #13 Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is an intriguing series.
  
  Southern Cal has won two–thirds of the meetings all time, but Utah has won two of the last three encounters.
  
  The Trojans are favored by 13 points — and they usually beat Utah at home. Utah hasn't come away from Southern Cal with a win in more than 100 years, and it sure would be a big story if the Utes did so this time.
  
  But I don't think that will happen. I pick Southern Cal.
• Baylor at #14 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central): These programs are going in opposite directions.
  
  A couple of years ago Baylor appeared positioned to threaten college football's elite, but today the Bears are back to their winless ways and are 25½–point picks to lose. It's hard for visitors to win in Stillwater, anyway.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.
• Cincinnati at #15 South Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Cincinnati leads the all–time series but has lost three of the last four meetings including the last two that were played at South Florida.
  
  The oddsmakers are convinced that South Florida will make that four of the last five. They've made USF a 24½–point favorite. Good enough for me. I pick South Florida.
• #16 Michigan at Indiana, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: The Wolverines have beaten the Hoosiers 21 straight times, but Indiana's last win over Michigan came at home almost to the day — on Oct. 24 — in 1987.
  
  Could lightning strike twice? Well, not really, since it has been 30 years since that last strike, but the oddsmakers anticipate a much closer score than you might expect. They have made the Wolverines 6½–point favorites.
  
  It is tempting to go for an upset special on this one, but I will take Michigan to extend its winning streak.
• Boise State at #18 San Diego State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This series is knotted at 2–2, and, with the exception of their first meeting in 2011, the games have been decided by single–digit margins.
  
  The oddsmakers apparently think it will be that way again as they have made San Diego State a 7–point favorite.
  
  I also think it will be close, but I am inclined to pick Boise State as an upset special.
• #20 North Carolina State at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ACCNE: History favors Pitt in this one, but the oddsmakers like State.
  
  The Panthers lead the series 5–3–1 and have never lost at home to North Carolina State. The Wolfpack gets the nod from the oddsmakers by 12 points.
  
  I will take North Carolina State.
• East Carolina at #21 Central Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: East Carolina dominated this series until the two schools ended up in the same conference. Since then, East Carolina holds only a 6–4 edge.
  
  Central Florida is favored — by 34 points — to narrow that gap even more, and I see no reason to go against that. Central Florida is my pick.
• #22 Michigan State at Minnesota, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The Spartans leaped into the Top 25 with their win over their in–state rivals, the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan State has won four in a row against Minnesota, and the Spartans are 10½–point favorites to do it again.
  
  But the series has been tight when Minnesota has been the home team. The Gophers have beaten MSU in two of the last three games played at Minnesota.
  
  Michigan State can't afford to overlook this one — although the 3–2 Gophers have been giving out mixed signals this year. They started out 3–0 (including a win at Oregon State) but lost the last two.
  
  I'm not sold on the Spartans yet, but there are greater challenges farther up the trail. I will pick Michigan State to win this one.
• #24 Navy at Memphis, 2:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Navy has won both of the previous encounters, including last year's 42–28 decision.
  
  But Memphis has been playing quite well so far and was established as a 4½–point favorite last weekend. I was prepared to pick the Tigers, anyway, whether they were favored or not. As it is, they are favored, and I pick Memphis to win.
• Oregon at #25 Stanford, 10 p.m. (Central): Since 2010, the pattern in this series has been for one team to win back–to–back games, then the other team would win two games back to back.
  
  Stanford won last year and, in keeping with that pattern, should be due another victory this time before turning it over to Oregon. OK. I'll go with that. My pick is Stanford.

Last week: 16–5

Overall: 98–23

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 1–3

Overall upset specials: 2–12

Conference Clashes Are Underway

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We have entered the part of the college football season that will be mostly made up of conference games.

And, since every conference has a few top–tier programs and a few bottom feeders, there will be mismatches — and possible upsets — every week for the rest of the season.

Last week was a good example.

Typically the Southern Cal–Washington State game means little. The Trojans usually win, sometimes by wide margins.

But not this year. Washington State pulled off a 30–27 upset last week and zipped past the Trojans in the rankings. Both are still in the poll this week, but that might not last. We will have to see what the rest of the season has in store.

Idle: #15 Oklahoma State, #18 South Florida

Thursday

• #17 Louisville at #24 North Carolina State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Louisville has won five of six meetings with North Carolina State, including three in a row since Louisville joined the ACC in 2014.
  
  The oddsmakers think it will be a close one; Louisville is favored by four points. But I've seen the Wolfpack play, and I am impressed. Make North Carolina State an upset special.

Saturday

• #1 Alabama at Texas A&M, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It is a given that Alabama is always one of the best college football teams around.
  
  The Aggies, though, have had a particularly difficult time with the Crimson Tide, losing seven of nine meetings.
  
  But what is especially galling for Aggie fans is that Alabama is unbeaten at College Station.
  
  The oddsmakers seem to think this encounter will be brutal. The Tide is favored by 26½ points. I don't think an upset is in the cards. My pick is Alabama.
• Wake Forest at #2 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: After facing down mostly ranked opponents in the first month of the season, this should seem like a breather for Clemson.
  
  The Tigers have dominated the series with Wake Forest. In recent times, the Tigers have won 10 of the last 11 meetings; currently they are favored by more than three touchdowns.
  
  I have to pick Clemson.
• Iowa State at #3 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: It's been more than a quarter of a century since Iowa State beat Oklahoma.
  
  That last victory came at Norman, but I don't expect a repeat this Saturday. Neither do the oddsmakers, who have established OU as a four–touchdown favorite. Oklahoma should prevail easily.
• #4 Penn State at Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Northwestern has only beaten Penn State five times in 18 encounters, but the Wildcats won the last two meetings.
  
  The oddsmakers think the streak ends here. They've made the Nittany Lions 15–point picks, and I agree. My choice is Penn State.
• #5 Georgia at Vanderbilt, 11 a.m. on ESPN: Georgia almost always wins this game.
  
  The Bulldogs have won eight of the last 10, and they have won more than 75% of the games that have been played all time.
  
  But Vandy won when they met last year — so beware.
  
  Georgia is an 18–point pick in this game. While this could be a trap I expect Georgia to win.
• California at #6 Washington, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Washington has a solid lead in the all–time series and has won eight of the last 10 meetings — pretty decisively most of the time, too.
  
  Last year, for example, the Huskies won 66–27 on the road. Now the scene shifts to Washington, but the oddsmakers don't think there will be much change. Washington is favored by 27½ points. I have to take Washington.
• Michigan State at #7 Michigan, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is a good rivalry on the field. It is frequently competitive, but Michigan usually wins.
  
  Not always but most of the time, especially in Ann Arbor.
  
  The Wolverines are favored to win again, and I see no reason to expect otherwise. My pick is Michigan.
• #23 West Virginia at #8 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Based on the rankings and the point spread, TCU should be an easy winner in this game.
  
  But West Virginia has been underestimated before, and that seldom ends well for the other guys.
  
  I expect this to be closer than the 13½ points the oddsmakers have established as the point spread, and West Virginia might even win this game, but I will pick TCU to prevail.
• #9 Wisconsin at Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: It wasn't so long ago that a road trip to Nebraska would be regarded as a certain loss.
  
  But times have changed. Don't misunderstand; Nebraska is still competitive at home, but wins are not automatic. Less than a month ago, Northern Illinois beat the Cornhuskers on their own turf, 21–17.
  
  And Wisconsin won the last time the Badgers traveled to Lincoln, 23–21. The oddsmakers have made Wisconsin a 12½–point favorite to do it again. I agree. I like Wisconsin in this one.
• Maryland at #10 Ohio State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If this wasn't a conference game, I doubt that these schools would ever face each other. And, in fact, they never did face each other until Maryland joined the Big Ten a few years ago.
  
  The Buckeyes won 62–3 last year. The oddsmakers made OSU a 39–point favorite. I have to go with Ohio State.
• #11 Washington State at Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Between 1998 and 2014, these schools met 17 times, and Oregon won all but three.
  
  But the tide has turned in this series. Washington State won by a touchdown in 2015 and by 18 points last year.
  
  Now the Cougars are trying to win their third in a row against the Ducks for the first time since the early '80s. The oddsmakers have made them narrow favorites — by 1½ points — to do so.
  
  But I'm thinking that WSU might have something of a hangover after upending Southern Cal last week, and I like Oregon in an upset special.
• Ole Miss at #12 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There are several reasons to think that Auburn will win.
  
  The Tigers have won nearly three–quarters of the meetings between the two schools and typically only lose to the Rebels in clearly down years. This doesn't appear to be one of those.
  
  The oddsmakers have made Auburn a 21½–point favorite, and I am inclined to go along with that. I expect Auburn to win.
• #13 Miami (Fla.) at Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Florida State has been a thorn in Miami's side.
  
  Miami leads the all–time series, 31–30, but Florida State has narrowed the gap with seven consecutive wins.
  
  The oddsmakers think Miami will turn that around. They've made the 'Canes favorites by a field goal. But I'm going to pick Florida State in an upset special.
• Oregon State at #14 Southern Cal, 3 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: You have to go all the way back to 1960 to find the last time Oregon State won a game at Southern Cal. Since that day the Trojans have beaten the Beavers 23 times when they have come to call.
  
  In fact, Oregon State has won less than 10% of the road meetings with USC. The oddsmakers don't think that will change. They have made the Trojans 34–point favorites. I like Southern Cal.
• #16 Virginia Tech at Boston College, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Virginia Tech has won more than two–thirds of the meetings between these schools — including two showdowns for the ACC title.
  
  The Hokies are favored by 16½ points. That's good enough for me. I take Virginia Tech.
• #19 San Diego State at Nevada–Las Vegas, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This has been a conference clash for more than 20 years — and one that San Diego State has dominated of late, winning nine of the last 11 meetings.
  
  That isn't surprising, given that UNLV has only had one winning season since 2000.
  
  If the Rebs win this one, it will be a shock. My pick is San Diego State.
• Stanford at #20 Utah, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Don't let the rankings fool you. Stanford was ranked before falling victim to Southern Cal and San Diego State, both of whom are ranked.
  
  But Stanford still has a good football team.
  
  So does Utah, and the Utes have won their last three meetings with Stanford. The oddsmakers think Stanford will snap that skid this weekend; they have made Stanford a 5½–point pick.
  
  While this probably seems contradictory to what I said a few paragraphs ago, I'm going to take Utah in an upset special.
• LSU at #21 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is a competitive series and should be entertaining to watch.
  
  LSU has had the hot hand lately, winning six of the last seven meetings, but the Gators lead the all–time series.
  
  The Tigers are looking for their fourth straight win over Florida, but the Gators are favored by a field goal. I can come up with lots of reasons why either team will lose, but I can't seem to come up with a single reason why either team will win.
  
  Although neither team is intimidated by the other's home field, I'll go with the home team, Florida, in this one.
• #21 Notre Dame at North Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 20th meeting between these schools.
  
  It was a series that lay dormant for more than a quarter of a century, then was revived in 2006. They haven't played every year — and if the game was being played in South Bend, I would have no trouble picking the Irish. Notre Dame is 12–0 there against the Tar Heels. But when Carolina is at home, the Tar Heels have actually won a couple of times including the last time they met there (in 2008).
  
  So that makes me pause — but only for a second or two. The Irish are two–touchdown favorites. My pick is Notre Dame.
• #25 Central Florida at Cincinnati, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This marks the third meeting between these schools. The home team won the previous two contests, which should mean that Cincinnati will win this game. But I have some serious doubts about that.
  
  Central Florida is favored by 17 points. I will go along with that. Central Florida is the pick.

Last week: 15–2

Overall: 82–18

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 0–1

Overall upset specials: 1–9