In Search of Upsets

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In my mind, I guess September is a little too early for conference clashes.

It was always that way when I was growing up — and it is still that way for many teams.

But some conference schedules do get underway in September. My alma mater, Arkansas, opened its 2017 conference schedule last weekend, losing in overtime to Texas A&M.

So, too, did TCU and Oklahoma State in the Big XII.

They've been in the same conference for five years now, but they played each other quite a few times before that. TCU hadn't won at Stillwater since 1991 (when Oklahoma State went 0–10–1).

I'm sure no one in their right mind picked the Horned Frogs to win that game — and yet they did, pretty convincingly.

It would have been great if I had made TCU one of my upset specials. I've really been struggling in that department — and I have only picked one upset special this week.

The way things have been going, there will be several upsets in the Top 25 — but the one I picked won't be one of them.

Idle: #3 Oklahoma, #8 Michigan, #9 TCU, #20 Utah, #23 West Virginia

Friday

• #5 Southern Cal at #16 Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Southern Cal has won nine of the last 10 meetings with Washington State — which is just a little better than the Trojans' all–time winning percentage in the series.
  
  Nevertheless the oddsmakers only favor USC by four points. What do they know that I don't?
  
  The Trojans have won five straight at Washington State. Make that six in a row for Southern Cal.
• #14 Miami (Fla.) at Duke, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is a comparatively young series. Most of the games have been played in the 21st century.
  
  Of the 14 games that have been played, Miami has won 12 — and is 7–1 at Duke. Oddsmakers favor the Hurricanes by six points.
  
  Seems like this could be a trap game, but I will pick Miami, anyway.

Saturday

• Ole Miss at #1 Alabama, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It was very dramatic in recent years when the Rebels beat the Tide — twice — but Alabama got the upper hand back last season.
  
  Historically Alabama has dominated the series. This will be the 61st meeting and the Tide will be looking for its 50th win over Ole Miss.
  
  I have to pick Alabama.
• #2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This must be the marquee game of the weekend.
  
  And it is one more challenge for a Clemson team that keeps rising to the occasion.
  
  This is a conference rivalry but not a divisional one, which means these teams do not face each other every year. Nevertheless they have faced off 32 times before, and the clear trend — at least in the last 30 years — has been for one team to win several in a row before yielding to the other.
  
  The team that is currently on a winning streak is Clemson, but the Tigers, who have won four in a row from the Hokies, haven't five in a row since the 1980s.
  
  Thus the Tigers are battling history in this one. Can they do it? I believe they can. Clemson is the choice.
• Indiana at #4 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These teams have played 20 times, and Indiana has been the winner only once.
  
  But that was at Penn State.
  
  Will lightning strike twice? No. I pick Penn State.
• #6 Washington at Oregon State, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Washington has won six of the last seven meetings with Oregon State.
  
  On paper this looks like a sure thing. I pick Washington.
• #7 Georgia at Tennessee, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: With last year's 34–31 victory, the Volunteers slipped ahead of Georgia in the all–time series.
  
  They had just pulled even in the series with a 38–31 victory in Knoxville the year before. So the Vols are looking to make it three in a row against the Bulldogs. Tennessee hasn't beaten Georgia that many times in a row since the '90s, when the Vols won nine in a row — and Peyton Manning was in the lineup for awhile.
  
  Knoxville is a tough place to play, which Georgia fans know all too well, but I think Georgia will pull this one out.
• Northwestern at #10 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Wisconsin leads the all–time series with Northwestern by more than 20 games.
  
  But the schools have split the last 12 meetings right down the middle — and in those 12 games, the home team has been the winner two–thirds of the time.
  
  So I guess history is saying that Wisconsin will probably win. The oddsmakers are saying so, too. They make the Badgers 14–point favorites.
  
  I will go with Wisconsin as well.
• #11 Ohio State at Rutgers, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These schools have played three times, and the Buckeyes have won by lopsided margins every time.
  
  I expect nothing to change this time. Ohio State will win.
• #24 Mississippi State at #13 Auburn, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically speaking, Auburn has Mississippi State's number. The Tigers have won about two–thirds of the time, including 12 of the last 16 meetings.
  
  And the oddsmakers think they will do so again — but the SEC is so balanced that year that it seems anyone can beat anyone (unless that second anyone is Alabama) on any given Saturday.
  
  This one seems to be a good candidate for an upset so I make Mississippi State my upset special choice — and given my record in upset specials so far this year, that means Auburn should be a lock to win the game. Place your bets!
• #15 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Oklahoma State has won eight in a row against Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders' last win over the Cowboys came at Lubbock.
  
  Oklahoma State needs to reassert itself in the wake of its surprising loss to TCU last week — and the Cowboys are 9½–point picks to do just that.
  
  The Cowboys have won eight in a row against the Red Raiders, but the games are always entertaining. Last year OSU won by a single point, 45–44. The year before that, in the most recent game between the two in Lubbock, the teams combined for more than 120 points.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.
• Murray State at #17 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACCNE: I can't see Murray State hanging with Louisville for four quarters. This one should be lopsided.
  
  I pick Louisville.
• #18 South Florida at East Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is a young series. The teams have only met seven times, but South Florida has dominated, winning six of those contests.
  
  And East Carolina's only win came at South Florida in 2014. The Pirates are 0–3 at home against South Florida.
  
  The oddsmakers favor South Florida to make ECU's home record in the series 0–4. They have established the Bulls as 23½–point favorites. I have to take South Florida.
• Northern Illinois at #19 San Diego State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: In their four previous meetings, San Diego State emerged victorious every time.
  
  The oddsmakers make SDSU an 11–point pick this time. If Northern Illinois beats the spread, it will be the closest game the teams have ever played.
  
  I take San Diego State.
• Vanderbilt at #21 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Talk about a lopsided series.
  
  Florida has won all but one of the last 26 meetings — but the good news for Vandy is that that single victory came at Florida in 2013, which happens to be the Gators' worst season since 1979.
  
  It doesn't seem likely that this season will be worse than that one was — nor does it seem likely that the Commodores will win this one. My pick is Florida.
• Miami (Ohio) at #22 Notre Dame, 4 p.m. (Central) on NBCSN: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools.
  
  The oddsmakers don't think it will be much of a game. The Irish are favored by 21½ points.
  
  OK. I'll take Notre Dame.
• Troy at #25 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These two teams have played each other twice, both times at LSU, and the Tigers won both times.
  
  LSU doesn't seem to be as good as it often is, but I think LSU has enough in the tank to win this one.

Last week: 16–6

Overall: 67–16

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 0–3

Overall upset specials: 1–8

The First Lady of Thoroughbred Racing

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Secretariat is a name that has been known by hundreds of millions of people for more than 40 years — but most probably never heard of Penny Chenery until the Walt Disney Co. made a movie about Secretariat.

Chenery, who died last Saturday at the age of 95, was Secretariat's owner — but she was more than that, really. She was a tough old bird.

If you didn't grow up in the South, you may not know that is about the highest compliment one can pay. To be a tough old bird suggests that you have lived a long life and fielded everything life threw at you. Penny Chenery was a pioneer, and pioneers always have to be tough old birds.

They rarely win popularity contests.

In Penny Chenery's case she took over her father's once–successful horse breeding business when he became disabled and, applying what she had learned in business school, revived it and pursued her father's dream of winning the Kentucky Derby.

She had her father's love of horses, but she knew that horse breeding was not the kind of business she had studied in school. She encountered plenty of resistance along the way, but she achieved her father's goal with Riva Ridge in 1972.

In fact, with Secretariat, she went beyond her father's dream. She won all three of the Triple Crown races the following year, and Secretariat became the first Triple Crown winner in a quarter of a century.

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Even now when I watch the footage of Secretariat's astonishing victory in the third and final jewel of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, I feel that same sense of awe and excitement that I felt on that Saturday afternoon in June of 1973.

A decade after that accomplishment, Chenery became one of the first three women to be admitted as members of The Jockey Club, which is the breed registry for thoroughbred horses in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico. A few years earlier she became a member of the Executive Committee of the American Horse Council, the horse industry trade association.

When the Disney movie was in the theaters seven years ago, some complained that it was more about Penny Chenery than it was about Secretariat, and there is some truth in that.

But the greater truth is that no movie could fully tell the story of Penny Chenery's remarkable life.

Rest in peace.

Separating the Pretenders From the Contenders

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It may seem early in the season for college football to be drawing the dividing line between its pretenders and contenders, but that is how it looked last week with several teams falling to what seemed like upsets on the surface but may really have been symptoms that things are not what they may have appeared to be.

UCLA, for example, lost to Memphis, which was pretty highly regarded when the season started but still belongs to a lower–echelon conference, one that certainly shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath with the Pac–12. Memphis had to prove itself — and it did.

Similarly San Diego State upset another ranked team from the Pac–12, slipping past Stanford by a single point. And Southern Cal needed two overtimes to subdue Texas, the same team that lost to Maryland two weeks earlier.

Suddenly the Pac–12 isn't looking so strong.

But all wins by teams from lower–tier conferences over teams from the power conferences are not treated equally. The pollsters didn't reward Memphis with a spot in the rankings — unlike San Diego State.

LSU lost to Mississippi State. The Tigers have dominated the series over the years — but they have been particularly dominant in Starkville, where they have won nearly 75% of the time — and had not lost since 1999. But the Bulldogs partied like it was 1999, winning by 30 points.

There were surprises among the unranked as well. I'm sure no one expected Northern Illinois to prevail at Nebraska. Nevertheless ...

Idle: #9 Wisconsin

Thursday

• Temple at #21 South Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: South Florida's last loss was at Temple on Oct. 21, 2016.
  
  The Bulls have won eight in a row since then (it probably would have been nine in a row if Hurricane Irma hadn't postponed South Florida's game with UConn), but my guess is that everyone on that squad wants to even the score — as well as the all–time series (which Temple leads 2–1).
  
  I pick South Florida.

Friday

• #23 Utah at Arizona, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Utah had lost four straight to Arizona before winning their Pac–12 matchup last year.
  
  This will be the teams' 43rd meeting, and Arizona holds a narrow edge at home against Utah. In fact, Utah has won at Arizona only once in more than 20 years.
  
  I think the tide is turning in this series. My pick is Utah.

Saturday

• #1 Alabama at Vanderbilt, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Until Vanderbilt knocked off Kansas State last week, this game got little, if any, attention.
  
  After all, Alabama hasn't lost to Vanderbilt since 1984 — and hasn't lost at Vanderbilt since 1969.
  
  There really isn't a reason to expect anything different this time. I pick Alabama to win.
• Boston College at #2 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: After facing down ranked teams the last couple of weeks, I imagine that Clemson will enjoy this one. This series dates back to the 1940 Cotton Bowl, but it has only been an annual meeting since the teams became conference rivals in 2005.
  
  Since then Clemson has won two–thirds of its meetings with Boston College and has only lost at home twice in that stretch — both times by a field goal.
  
  The choice is Clemson.
• #3 Oklahoma at Baylor, 5:30 p.m. (Central): The Sooners won by 10 the last time they visited Waco, but the Bears won the previous two meetings.
  
  That's a pretty big deal, considering that Baylor had never beaten Oklahoma until 2011.
  
  The previous order seems to be in the process of being restored. I think Oklahoma will win this one.
• #4 Penn State at Iowa, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Last week Iowa hammered the school where I got my master's, North Texas. This week the Hawkeyes face the fourth–ranked team in the land.
  
  In the words of Dire Straits, sometimes you're the windshield. Sometimes you're the bug.
  
  I pick Penn State.
• #5 Southern Cal at California, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Southern Cal has beaten California 13 straight times and has won more than 72% of the games in what is now a 97–game series.
  
  I expect nothing to change this week. The pick is Southern Cal.
• #16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This has always been a competitive series.
  
  OSU seized control by winning five of the last six meetings, and it will be tough for TCU to narrow the gap this weekend. Stillwater is a tough place for visiting teams.
  
  Oklahoma State is favored by 11½ points, and that sounds about right to me.
  
  My pick is Oklahoma State.
• #7 Washington at Colorado, 9 p.m. (Central): After eight straight losing seasons, not much was expected from Colorado last year. But the Buffaloes went 10–2 before losing the Pac–12 championship game to Washington.
  
  Can Colorado win the rematch? Colorado hasn't beaten Washington since the 1996 Holiday Bowl and hasn't beaten Washington at home since 1990. And Washington is favored by 10 points.
  
  But something tells me it isn't quite as certain as it may seem. I will take Colorado in an upset special.
• #8 Michigan at Purdue, 3 p.m. (Central): Talk about your one–sided series.
  
  These teams have played 57 times, and Michigan has won 43. In fact, Purdue has beaten Michigan only five times since 1980.
  
  But they're playing at Purdue, which may be the saving grace for the Boilermakers. They've been more successful there than Ann Arbor, where Purdue has won only once since 1966.
  
  Well, I suppose it might be close for awhile. But the oddsmakers make Michigan a 10–point favorite. I agree. Michigan will win.
• Nevada–Las Vegas at #10 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central): What can I say
  
  Ohio State is favored by nearly 40 points. No wonder it isn't being televised.
  
  My choice is Ohio State.
• #17 Mississippi State at #11 Georgia, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I expect this one to be an interesting game.
  
  I probably wouldn't have said that when the season began, but Mississippi State's victory over LSU last week opened my eyes.
  
  Apparently it opened the oddsmakers' eyes, too. They made Georgia a 4½–point favorite at home.
  
  Make Mississippi State an upset special.
• North Carolina State at #12 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Sometimes North Carolina State can pull off the upset, but Florida State has won about 70% of their meetings over the years, and I am just not inclined to pick North Carolina State in this one.
  
  The Wolfpack has won only twice at Florida State in the last 50 years.
  
  The pick is Florida State.
• Old Dominion at #13 Virginia Tech, 1 p.m. (Central) on ACCNE: The oddsmakers have made Tech a 26½–point favorite at home. Good enough for me.
  
  I pick Virginia Tech.
• Toledo at #14 Miami (Fla.), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACCNE: These teams have played only once before — in November of 1987.
  
  Miami went undefeated that season, and Toledo was 3–7–1, but Toledo only lost by 10 points in a game that was played at Miami. Only three schools — Florida State on the road, South Carolina and Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl — came closer to beating the Hurricanes that year.
  
  Miami is favored to win by nearly two touchdowns. And even though Toledo has been better in recent years, I expect Miami to win.
• #15 Auburn at Missouri, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have met twice before, but this will be the first time they have played in a month other than December.
  
  Missouri is a relative newcomer to the SEC and doesn't compete in Auburn's division. This will be the first time they have met in the regular season.
  
  But they faced each other in the 2013 SEC Championship in Atlanta, and Auburn won by 59–42. Forty years earlier, Missouri won the first meeting in the Sun Bowl, 34–17.
  
  Auburn is favored by nearly three touchdowns. I take Auburn.
• Nevada at #18 Washington State, 5 p.m. (Central): These schools have met three teams before, each time at Washington State.
  
  Washington State won the first two, but Nevada claimed their most recent meeting — on Sept. 5, 2014.
  
  Will lightning strike twice? I don't think so. Washington State is my choice.
• Kent at #19 Louisville, 11 a.m. (Central) on ACCNE: These schools were regular rivals in the '60s, but they haven't met since 1973.
  
  Kent went 3–9 last year. I expect Louisville to romp.
• #20 Florida at Kentucky, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: You could probably expect a pretty good game from these two if the sport was basketball.
  
  But in football the Gators have thoroughly dominated the series. They lead it 50–17 and haven't lost at Kentucky since 1986.
  
  I expect the dominance to continue. The pick is Florida.
• #22 San Diego State at Air Force, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: History leans heavily toward San Diego State in this series. The Aztecs have won the last six meetings (frequently by wide margins) and haven't lost at Air Force since 2009.
  
  But the oddsmakers have made San Diego State a mere 3½–point favorite. Could the Aztecs be suffering from something of a hangover following the win over Stanford?
  
  I will take Air Force in an upset special.
• #24 Oregon at Arizona State, 9 p.m. (Central): Arizona State once dominated this series, but Oregon has won 10 in a row to take the lead in the series, 19–16.
  
  The oddsmakers think Oregon will make it 11 in a row, having established the Ducks as 15½–point favorites.
  
  I agree. I pick Oregon.
• Syracuse at #25 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools have met three times before.
  
  The first two times were bowl games — the 1965 Sugar Bowl and the 1989 Hall of Fame Bowl. Two years ago, they finally faced other in a non–bowl setting, and LSU won on the road.
  
  Now Syracuse has a chance to even the score and the series. But the oddsmakers don't think Syracuse has much of a chance to win in Death Valley. They made LSU a 23½–point favorite.
  
  I expect LSU to win.

Last week: 16–5

Overall: 51–10

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 0–1

Overall upset specials: 1–5

The More Things Change ...

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I mentioned last week that the visiting team always wins when Ohio State and Oklahoma play — and so it was again when the teams met in Columbus, Ohio, last Saturday.

The Sooners moved up to #2 in the poll with their victory and face a cupcake against Tulane in Norman this week. Tulane has only had one winning season since 2002.

Obviously it is still early in the season, and many things can happen, but it is certainly looking as though we could have two programs rich in tradition — Alabama and Oklahoma — facing each other in the national championship next January.

What a game that would be.

Idle: #11 Florida State, #17 Miami (Fla.)

Friday

• Illinois at #22 South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Illini went 3–9 last year.
  
  I doubt they can keep up with the Bulls. I pick South Florida.

Saturday

• Colorado State at #1 Alabama, 6 p.m. (Central): These schools' only previous meeting came almost exactly four years ago on Alabama's home turf. And the Crimson Tide rolled, 31–6.
  
  Alabama should win again.
• Tulane at #2 Oklahoma, 5 p.m. (Central): In the old days, the fact that this game wasn't being televised would have hardly raised any eyebrows. But we live in an age when just about every team can have its games televised somewhere.
  
  The fact that no one is picking this one up suggests to me that the expectation is for a blowout — and that is not an unreasonable expectation.
  
  I expect Oklahoma to win.
• #3 Clemson at #14 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. (Central): I'm not convinced that the defending national champs shouldn't be ranked #1, considering they have perhaps the toughest early season schedule of any of the national contenders.
  
  A trip to Louisville the week after a match with Auburn? That's more demanding than any other early schedule in college football.
  
  I think the Tigers are up to it. The pick is Clemson.
• Texas at #4 Southern Cal, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If you're a football fan, you must remember the last time these teams faced each other — in the Rose Bowl for the national championship on Jan. 4, 2006.
  
  The schools had met four times before, twice in the '50s and twice in the '60s, and the Trojans won all four. But Texas triumphed in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Southern Cal might be good enough to play for the national title this year, but Texas clearly is not. I definitely believe Southern Cal will win.
• Georgia State at #5 Penn State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I can imagine no circumstances that could produce a Georgia State win in this game.
  
  My pick is Penn State.
• Fresno State at #6 Washington, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: I hope Fresno State is being compensated handsomely for starting the season with road games against Alabama and Washington.
  
  The Bulldogs lost to Alabama, and I am quite sure that Washington will win this one.
• Air Force at #7 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: You know, it really doesn't surprise me that Michigan is a 23½–point favorite at home.
  
  Air Force has been better in recent years. It's not my father's Air Force.
  
  But it will seem like old times when Michigan wins this game.
• Army at #8 Ohio State, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Ohio State is bound to be in a bad mood after losing to OU last week.
  
  Army had a pretty good year last year, but that came on the heels of several losing seasons. It seems a little unfair for Army to have to take the punishment Ohio State would like to inflict on Oklahoma. But that is the way things go.
  
  I expect Ohio State to prevail.
• #9 Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Pittsburgh only lost by a touchdown at Oklahoma State last year — and might make it closer as the host team this year.
  
  But I expect Oklahoma State to win.
• #10 Wisconsin at Brigham Young, 2:30 p.m. (Central): Wisconsin is favored by more than two touchdowns, which sounds about right to me.
  
  I pick Wisconsin.
• #12 LSU at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. (Central): LSU has dominated this series, losing only twice since 1991.
  
  I see no reason to expect anything different this time. I pick LSU.
• Samford at #13 Georgia, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There really isn't anything to say about this one except ...
  
  I confidently pick Georgia.
• Mercer at #15 Auburn, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I refer you to the prediction immediately preceding this one.
  
  I see even less reason to pick the visitor in this one.
  
  Auburn is my pick.
• #16 Virginia Tech at East Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is a pretty good regional rivalry. The teams played for the first time in 1956, but they really started playing each other on a nearly annual basis in the late 1980s.
  
  Virginia Tech usually wins, but the games are frequently competitive, no matter who wins.
  
  In this case, I am inclined to pick Virginia Tech.
• #18 Kansas State at Vanderbilt, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: It's been more than 30 years since the only other time these schools faced each other.
  
  Times have certainly changed. Back in 1984, Vanderbilt won. But the programs have been going in opposite directions.
  
  Kansas State should win.
• #19 Stanford at San Diego State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Stanford's football players must feel wistful when they look at the current rankings — and realize they might have been in the Top 5 if they had beaten Southern Cal.
  
  It's bound to be a sore spot.
  
  Beating San Diego State won't alleviate that, but nevertheless I pick Stanford.
• SMU at #20 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These are not just old Southwest Conference rivals, they are regional rivals. Depending on traffic Dallas and Fort Worth are less than an hour apart. With a 2:30 kickoff, the Mustangs can sleep in, then board a bus and be at the stadium in plenty of time.
  
  They might as well. I don't expect much from SMU in this game.
  
  TCU should win.
• Oregon State at #21 Washington State, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Historically Washington State holds the advantage in this Pac–12 series, which is 92 games old.
  
  In recent times, though, the edge belonged to Oregon State — until Washington State won the last two meetings.
  
  The Cougars are on the upward trajectory, and I pick Washington State to win.
• #23 Tennessee at #24 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: These SEC East rivals have faced each other nearly 50 times over the years, and the Gators have won nearly 58% of the time.
  
  They have had some good games — two of their last three meetings were decided by a single point — and they have had some blowouts.
  
  This one could probably go either way, and that seems to be reflected in the point spread. The Gators are only favored by 4½ at home.
  
  In an upset special, I will take Tennessee.
• #25 UCLA at Memphis, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: These teams have met only once before — three years ago in Los Angeles. UCLA won the game by a touchdown.
  
  Like Pittsburgh in its game with Oklahoma State, I expect Memphis to keep it close.
  
  But I also expect UCLA to prevail.

Last week: 15–2

Overall: 35–5

Postponed by hurricane: 4

Last week's upset specials: 1–2

Overall upset specials: 1–4

The King Isn't Quite Dead

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Well, I told you so.

Last week it was the trendy thing to do to pick #3 Florida State to turn back #1 Alabama in their much–ballyhooed season–opening battle.

A victory for the Seminoles, it was said, would accomplish two things — it would dislodge Alabama as the king of college football (even though, technically, Clemson is the defending national champion) and the SEC as the dominant football conference. It would be the dawn of a new era, they said, in which Florida State and the ACC would be college football's gold standard.

And there were a lot of folks jumping on the Florida State bandwagon.

But a funny thing happened en route to this brave new world.

Alabama beat Florida State soundly 24–7, just as I predicted last week. OK, maybe I didn't anticipate the margin, but the king clearly isn't dead and likely only faces two or three legitimate challenges — if that many — between now and what probably will be the Crimson Tide's 12th appearance in the Southeastern Conference's championship game.

No, the outcome in Atlanta didn't surprise me.

And I wasn't really surprised that Maryland gave #23 Texas a rough time. As I wrote about a month ago, I thought Texas was overrated — and I definitely still think so after Maryland's victory in Austin last weekend.

In an email conversation with a friend of mine the next day, we agreed that new Texas coach Tom Herman was bound to be on the hot seat after such a dismal debut and with Southern Cal, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State looming in the not–so–distant future.

The sports writers in Austin seem to be giving Herman some room, acknowledging that the Longhorns are "the same players that lost to Kansas" last season.

But I grew up in this part of the country, and I know how impatient Longhorn fans can be. They might not be saying it right now, but the honeymoon is over for Herman. Now comes the hard part. It was always going to be the hard part, but it was made harder still by a 10–point loss to an 18–point underdog.

Kirk Bohls of the Austin American–Statesman wrote that Herman (only the third head coach in UT history to lose his very first game — and one of the prior two had a legitimate excuse, having lost on the road to an Auburn team that would lose only once that season) was baffled by Texas' tendency to be its own worst enemy.

I am tempted to compare the Longhorns to Donald Trump and his inclination to send out Tweets at the drop of a hat. Both seem to have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot, and it is far from clear whether either will be able to right the ship in time to save it.

The Longhorns' long–time rival Texas A&M appeared to be on the brink of a major road upset, but the Aggies allowed UCLA to rally from a 34–point deficit for a 45–44 victory.

Looks like both coaches will be squirming on the hot seat this season.

Friday

• #11 Oklahoma State at South Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools. South Alabama will probably hope it will be the last.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.

Saturday

• Fresno State at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Alabama has only lost three games at home since 2012 — and each loss was to a national contender (at least after that team beat 'Bama).
  
  Fresno is coming off a 1–11 season. I hardly think Fresno will be 'Bama's fourth home loss since 2012.
  
  I pick Alabama.
• #5 Oklahoma at #2 Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's been almost 40 years to the day since Oklahoma's only other visit to Ohio State. The Sooners won that game, 29–28, on Uwe von Schamann's 41–yard field goal with only a handful of seconds remaining.
  
  Then as now, the game featured two teams from the Top 5. On that day, Oklahoma was ranked third and Ohio State was ranked fourth.
  
  I'm expecting another good, close game. And since the visiting team always wins in this series (when the teams played in Norman in 1983, Ohio State won, and the Buckeyes won again in Norman last season, 45–24), I choose Oklahoma in a modest upset special.
• #13 Auburn at #3 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: For the first half of the 20th century, these teams faced each other nearly every year.
  
  But they have only met five times since the 1971 season — and two of those games were in postseason bowls.
  
  Historically Auburn has dominated the series, winning more than 70% of the time. But Clemson has won the last two meetings.
  
  And my guess is that Clemson will make this its third straight win.
• Pittsburgh at #4 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: For most of the 20th century this was an annual in–state rivalry that got national attention every November, but it has been almost 17 years since their last meeting.
  
  Pittsburgh has been good but not great for the last several years. Penn State struggled for awhile in its transition from the Joe Paterno era but seems to be back on track. I expect home–field advantage to lift Penn State to victory.
• #14 Stanford at #6 Southern Cal, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Historically Southern Cal beats Stanford about two–thirds of the time.
  
  But Stanford has won seven of the last 10 meetings, including the Pac–12 Championship Game in 2015.
  
  I pick Stanford in an upset special.
• Montana at #7 Washington, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Washington is on its way up.
  
  I don't know anything about Montana, but I doubt that it will be much of a game.
  
  Washington is the choice.
• Cincinnati at #8 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After the way the Wolverines manhandled Florida last week, I'm a believer.
  
  I choose Michigan.
• Florida Atlantic at #9 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I can't see this one staying close for long.
  
  I pick Wisconsin.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #10 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After losing to Alabama last week — and it is certainly no disgrace to lose to Alabama — I expect the Seminoles to bounce back.
  
  Florida State should have no problems.
• Chattanooga at #12 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: It's hard for any visitor to win at LSU.
  
  For Chattanooga it should be impossible.
  
  I choose LSU.
• #15 Georgia at #24 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: It has been more than 36 years since the last time these teams met. It was New Year's Day 1981, and top–ranked Georgia beat seventh–ranked Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, 17–10.
  
  The setting is not nearly so dramatic this time — and Georgia clearly has no Herschel Walker in the backfield this time — but I predict the same outcome. I choose Georgia.
• #16 Miami (Fla.) at Arkansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: I grew up in Arkansas, and this may be the highest–profile team to play in Jonesboro.
  
  I don't know if Arkansas State is any good, but I can't imagine ASU staying in this one for long.
  
  I pick Miami.
• #17 Louisville at North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This one might actually be close for awhile.
  
  North Carolina has been to bowls in the last four seasons and even had an 11–win season in 2015.
  
  Louisville holds a 4–3 lead in the series, but the teams are tied at 2–2 in games played at North Carolina.
  
  While the home field may help the Tar Heels for awhile, my pick is Louisville.
• Delaware at #18 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACC Network: There is no reason why this one should be close.
  
  Virginia Tech will win.
• Charlotte at #19 Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central): The oddsmakers don't think this will be competitive, and neither do I. The oddsmakers make Kansas State a 35–point favorite. I agree.
  
  The pick is Kansas State.
• Boise State at #20 Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Washington State has won all four of the previous meetings with Boise State, but the teams haven't met since 2001.
  
  In the interim Boise State has had some pretty good teams. Only recently has Washington State been regarded as one of the nation's best.
  
  The Cougars are favored by 10. I can go along with that. The pick is Washington State.
• #21 South Florida at Connecticut, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNEWS: UConn went 3–9 last year. One of those losses was by 15 points at South Florida.
  
  Sounds about right, even though UConn is at home this time. My pick is South Florida.
• Northern Colorado at #22 Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The bookies aren't taking bets on this one anymore, and who can blame them?
  
  Florida should win easily.
• #23 TCU at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: When I was growing up, these two teams played in the Southwest Conference, which meant they faced each other every year.
  
  It was practically an automatic win for the Razorbacks, who lost to TCU for the first time in my lifetime when I was in college.
  
  Things have changed for both schools, and they have only met once since the SWC disbanded, but Arkansas won that encounter. I predict that Arkansas will win this one, too. It's another upset special since TCU is picked by a field goal, but it seems like old times ...
• Indiana State at #25 Tennessee, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The only time that I can recall that Indiana State had a team worthy of national attention was when Larry Bird played basketball there.
  
  I fully expect Tennessee to triumph.

Last week: 18–3

Overall: 20–3

Last week's upset specials: 0–2

Overall upset specials: 0–2