If Ole Miss Can Win at Alabama, I Guess Anything Can Happen

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You know, I had a pretty good week last week. I picked 95% of the games involving Top 25 teams correctly — including my upset special pick of Stanford over Southern Cal. Yep, it was a pretty good week.

But the one prediction that I got wrong would have made the most remarkable upset special of them all — Ole Miss' victory at Alabama. I really don't think anyone could have possibly picked that one — except, maybe, a few bold folks from Mississippi. As I pointed out last week, Ole Miss had only prevailed at Alabama once in the history of the series — and Ole Miss' home win in 2014 was the Crimson Tide's only blemish last season until its loss on New Year's Day to eventual national champion Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. The Crimson Tide had plenty of motivation.

Again, I'm quite sure no one saw that outcome in Tuscaloosa coming.

Idle: #10 Florida State, #11 Clemson, #15 Oklahoma

Friday

• #21 Stanford at Oregon State, 9 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Stanford leads this series that goes back to 1919 and has won the last five in a row.
  
  I think Stanford is over that stumble against Northwestern in the first game of the season, and I expect Stanford to win this game.

Saturday

• Western Michigan at #1 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: A week ago, Western Michigan probably had no hope of staying on the same field with top–ranked Ohio State. But that was before Northern Illinois came to town and wound up losing by only a touchdown.
  
  It can't happen, you say? Well, keep in mind that this Western Michigan team lost by only 13 points to Michigan State three weeks ago. But they say lightning rarely strikes twice in the same place so I pick Ohio State to be focused and to prevail.
• Central Michigan at #2 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This will be the 10th time these teams have met, and Michigan State wins about two–thirds of the time.
  
  But Central Michigan victories don't all date back to sometime in the 20th century. Central Michigan beat Michigan State in 2009. That was in East Lansing, where nearly every game in the series (except the most recent one, in 2012) has been played. A Central Michigan win is possible — but not probable.
  
  I'll take Michigan State.
• #3 TCU at Texas Tech, 3:45 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was growing up, these teams were in the Southwest Conference. They seldom did much in the way of winning conference games, but their series, which predates their conference rivalries, has always been competitive.
  
  I'm inclined to pick TCU — until I am reminded that the Horned Frogs haven't won in Lubbock in more than 20 years — and it has been more than 40 years since TCU beat Texas Tech in back–to–back seasons (TCU won in Fort Worth last year, 82–27).
  
  And Texas Tech is better this season. I watched the Red Raiders beat my alma mater last weekend, and they looked better than they did last year. Will it be enough? I think it will be much closer than last year, but I think TCU will prevail.
• Vanderbilt at #4 Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Isn't it amazing what a win at Alabama can do for a team? The Rebels are suddenly the fourth–ranked team in the nation.
  
  This really could be a good spot for Vanderbilt to pull off a shocker.
  
  It could happen. Vanderbilt has won the last three times the Commodores have visited Ole Miss. But the momentum is with the Rebels, who have won the last two times the teams have played.
  
  I pick Ole Miss.
• Rice at #5 Baylor, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports Network: It is really hard for me to imagine Rice winning this game.
  
  Baylor has won its last six encounters with the Owls, and I have seen nothing to suggest that Rice can win in Waco. After all, the Owls haven't won there since the teams were in the old Southwest Conference.
  
  I have to take Baylor.
• Massachusetts at #6 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This will be the first– ever meeting between these schools. I don't know if the Irish are as good as their record suggests, but I'll take Notre Dame at home.
• Southern at #7 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Sometimes there just isn't anything to say.
  
  I fully expect Georgia to win.
• #8 LSU at Syracuse, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met twice, both times in bowl games, and each team emerged with a victory.
  
  Their last meeting was more than 26 years ago so there is little to be learned from that.
  
  It was more instructive to observe LSU taking apart Auburn last weekend, and I expect LSU to take apart Syracuse this weekend.
• #9 UCLA at #16 Arizona, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: UCLA has won the last three meetings, but Arizona won the five before that.
  
  It's been a close series at Arizona. The home team has a 10–9 all–time advantage so, obviously, this is the Bruins' opportunity to even the series. And that is what I expect to happen. I pick UCLA.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #12 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Louisiana–Monroe has pulled off some upsets in recent years, but let's be clear about something. Alabama hasn't lost consecutive regular–season games since 2007.
  
  That also happens to be the last time Alabama lost consecutive regular–season home games, too.
  
  The planets aren't lined up just right for Louisiana–Monroe. Give me Alabama.
• #18 Utah at #13 Oregon, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Oregon has dominated this series, winning more than 70% all time and six of the last seven. The Ducks have been even more dominant at home. Their last loss at home to Utah was in 1994.
  
  Can Utah end the skid? The rankings suggest a close contest, but I expect Oregon to win.
• #14 Texas A&M vs. Arkansas at Dallas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: For two weeks now, I have endured Arkansas losses that should not have been losses. Now, the Razorbacks face the Aggies, a game they should have won last year and, until a couple of weeks ago, expected them to win this year.
  
  Now I'm not so sure.
  
  It would be just like the Razorbacks I grew up following to get off to a sloppy start when great things were expected, then to play well when all expectations had evaporated.
  
  So, for no particular reason — other than the one that I just gave — I will make Arkansas my upset special.
• Ball State at #17 Northwestern, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I don't know much about Ball State — except that my impression has been that it is mostly a basketball school.
  
  I don't know much more about Northwestern, but the Wildcats have been playing well so I will take Northwestern.
• #19 Southern Cal at Arizona State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Arizona State has been a thorn in Southern Cal's side in recent years, winning three of their last four meetings.
  
  Arizona State was merely a nuisance in the 11 games prior to that — all won by Southern Cal. ASU won last year's game by four points, and that one was played in Los Angeles. I'm going to go with the home team in this game and make Arizona State my second upset special.
• #20 Georgia Tech at Duke, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Georgia Tech has won 90% of its games with Duke in the last 20 years, but Duke won last year's match by six points.
  
  In fact, prior to 1995, the series was close with Georgia Tech leading 32–29–1. It has only been in the last couple of decades that Tech has seized total control of the series.
  
  I expect the dominance to continue. Give me Georgia Tech.
• Hawaii at #22 Wisconsin, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This will actually be the seventh time these schools have faced each other. Hawaii won the first meeting, back in 1986, and Wisconsin won the rest. All but one of the games have been played in Hawaii, and Hawaii lost the only time the game was played in Wisconsin.
  
  I expect Wisconsin to even the score.
• #23 Brigham Young at Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This a rematch of the 1984 Holiday Bowl — in which undefeated BYU prevailed by a touchdown, securing its only national championship.
  
  I'm hoping for a good game. In the end, though, I think Michigan's program is struggling, and BYU probably will win by 10 points or more.
• #24 Oklahoma State at Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Over the years, Texas has been one of those teams that has dominated virtually everyone the Longhorns have faced. Oklahoma State has been no exception.
  
  But the UT program has been down lately, which tends to make historical inferences rather hard to make.
  
  In this case, though, there is an historical trend that seems relevant. OSU has won its last three games in Austin. Before that, UT won 14 of the 15 games it played against OSU in Austin. So while the all–time record clearly shows UT far ahead of OSU in Austin, the recent record demonstrates how times have changed.
  
  I have to take Oklahoma State.
• #25 Missouri at Kentucky, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Missouri has beaten Kentucky every year since joining the SEC in 2012.
  
  I see no reason for that to change. I pick Missouri.

Last week: 19–1

Upset specials last week: 1–0

Season: 60–5

Upset specials overall: 2–1

Woo Pig ... Oh, Well

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When you try to predict the outcomes of games involving Top 25 teams, this is the part of the season when the picking is the easiest. Most of the ranked teams play easy marks — there aren't many head–to–head battles between ranked teams in the first month or so — and you're usually in safe territory if you pick the ranked team to win.

Usually.

Unless you happen to be my alma mater — Arkansas — and you're playing an apparent pushover like Toledo. It should go without saying that unranked Toledo's 16–12 victory over #18 Arkansas in Little Rock was a shock. It would have been a great upset special. I doubt that many people made that prediction, though. I certainly didn't.

I grew up in Arkansas, so I ought to know how this thing works by now. Arkansas frequently has had its best seasons when little was expected — and the Hogs tend to stumble out of the gate when expectations are high. It hasn't always turned out that way, but it has quite often.

The fans expected little when last season began, and, for the first half of the season, the Hogs seemed to be living down to expectations. But then they reeled off some impressive wins in the second half of the season and ended up beating an old Southwest Conference rival, the Texas Longhorns, in a bowl game.

The end of last season naturally gave rise to unrealistic expectations for this season. The Hogs whipped UTEP in the opener, but then they never got going against Toledo. They face Texas Tech this week, then #17 Texas A&M, followed by the Monsters of the SEC West.

My upset special didn't come through. If you want to know which game that was, just look at my column from last week.

Idle: #5 Baylor

Today

• #11 Clemson at Louisville, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams met for the first time last year, and Clemson pulled off a 23–17 win at home. Now, Louisville is looking to return the favor. It should be fun to watch.
  
  I hope it will be close again, and I will take Clemson to win.

Friday

• #9 Florida State at Boston College, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These ACC rivals have played each other every year since 2005. Florida State has won the last five meetings. The series actually dates back to the late '50s. Boston College has been the home team seven times and has beaten Florida State only twice.
  
  I haven't heard much about Boston College. In the absence of any information, I have to pick Florida State.

Saturday

• Northern Illinois at #1 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In their only previous meeting (which was also played in Columbus), Ohio State hammered Northern Illinois, 35–12, in 2006.
  
  Nearly a decade later, Northern Illinois is back — and I expect Ohio State to win again.
• #15 Ole Miss at #2 Alabama, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The first game in this series was played in 1907. Since then, the schools have squared off on the gridiron a total of 58 times.
  
  And Ole Miss has won on Alabama's turf only once in all those years. That was in 1988.
  
  Alabama fans aren't likely to remember that one. They are far more likely to remember last year, when Ole Miss handed then 4–0 Alabama its only loss of the regular season. That broke a 10–year Alabama winning streak against Ole Miss and, temporarily, appeared to derail 'Bama's hopes for playing in the national championship game. Alabama wound up making college football's Final Four after winning the rest of its games but lost to eventual national champion Ohio State on New Year's Day.
  
  Most teams struggle to win at Alabama. For Ole Miss, it's like trying to climb Mount Everest. I pick Alabama.
• SMU at #3 TCU, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports Network: This will be the 93rd meeting of these schools. It's been called the "Battle for the Iron Skillet" since 1946, but that is just about all that folks agree on. TCU fans will tell you one story about how it came to be known as the "Battle for the Iron Skillet," and SMU fans will tell you another.
  
  From what I have seen, SMU just doesn't have the horses to compete for long in this game. I pick TCU.
• Air Force at #4 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Air Force was a lot better than its reputation last year, going 9–3 in the regular season and winning a bowl game. It was the first time Air Force was in double digits in wins since 1998.
  
  Everyone, I guess, knows about Michigan State. Great season. Just happened to lose to the two teams that made it to the national championship game. Double–digit victory years haven't been nearly as uncommon in East Lansing as they have been in Colorado, though. The Spartans have had 10 or more victories in four of the last five seasons, and they're probably expecting another one this year.
  
  I don't expect Air Force to soar very high in this game. I predict a victory for Michigan State.
• Stanford at #6 Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Before Northwestern upset Stanford on the first weekend, I'm sure ABC was licking its chops over this early Pac–12 showdown. It will still be a good game, but it won't have nearly as much riding on it.
  
  This will be the 93rd meeting of these schools since 1918. Southern Cal has dominated on both fields, but, from the perspective of history, if you're Stanford, you want this game to be played in Southern Cal. Stanford has been more successful there. Stanford has won three of the last four times the teams have played on Southern Cal's turf.
  
  Consequently, this will be my upset special — Stanford over Southern Cal.
• South Carolina at #7 Georgia, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Georgia has dominated this series, no matter where the game has been played. In a series that dates to 1903, Georgia has won 71% of the time.
  
  In recent years, though, it's been pretty competitive. Since 2005, each team has won five times, and six of the games have been decided by a touchdown or less. So don't be fooled by the absence of a ranking for South Carolina. That could change quickly if South Carolina comes away with a win.
  
  But I don't think that will happen. I pick Georgia.
• #14 Georgia Tech at #8 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These are pretty old foes, having faced each other nearly three dozen times since the Knute Rockne days — and Notre Dame has won more than 80% of the time.
  
  It really ought to be a good game, and, being the lifelong Southerner that I am, I'd like to see Tech win. But I expect a Notre Dame victory.
• #19 Brigham Young at #10 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: This will be the 11th time these teams have faced each other. UCLA won six of the first seven, but BYU has won two of the last three. But you have to go back to that very first game, back in 1983, to find BYU's only win at UCLA.
  
  I don't think BYU will win this time. I have to take UCLA.
• Georgia State at #12 Oregon, 1 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These schools have never faced each other, but I think I have a pretty good handle on what is likely to happen.
  
  Oregon played in the national championship game last season (and got hammered, too). Last week, the Ducks played at Michigan State. The Spartans might have been in college football's first–ever Final Four if they had beaten Oregon; they got their revenge last week.
  
  Now Oregon comes home to face Georgia State. The Ducks have a lot to prove, mostly to themselves, and I think they'll do it. I'm sure Oregon will win. I can't imagine a different outcome.
• #18 Auburn at #13 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Auburn beat LSU at home last year, but Auburn hasn't won at LSU since 1999. The teams have played 15 times since that game, and Auburn has won six times — all at home.
  
  Home field really is important to SEC schools. Uncharacteristically, LSU lost twice at home last year — to Mississippi State and Alabama. Really, losses at home have been rare for LSU of late. LSU hadn't lost twice at home in a single season since 2009.
  
  It's largely on the strength of that record that I pick LSU to win this game.
• Tulsa at #16 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Tulsa has an uninspiring record of 1–11–1 at Oklahoma. Tulsa's only win there came in 1996.
  
  I doubt that Tulsa will improve that record. I predict an Oklahoma victory.
• Nevada at #17 Texas A&M, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: It's been 65 years since the only other meeting between these schools. That one was played at a neutral site (Sacramento, Calif.) and A&M crushed Nevada 48–18.
  
  I expect Texas A&M to win this time, too.
• Northern Arizona at #20 Arizona, 10 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Arizona has looked good every time I have seen the Wildcats play in the last couple of years.
  
  I pick Arizona to win.
• #21 Utah at Fresno State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: These teams have met twice, and it's been a competitive — but sorta streaky — series that was renewed last year for the first time in the 21st century. Utah has won the last three meetings; Fresno State hasn't won since 1997.
  
  Not so long ago, Fresno State was putting up gaudy winning records with even gaudier wins. But Fresno has fallen on hard times, going 6–8 last year. Utah was 9–4 last year and averaged more than 30 points a game. I'll take Utah.
• Connecticut at #22 Missouri, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: In the last four years, Connecticut has won 10 games (a .313 winning percentage) and only three of those wins came on the road.
  
  It doesn't seem likely that Connecticut will win. It does seem likely that Missouri will win.
• #23 Northwestern at Duke, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: These teams have faced each other 16 times in the past, and each team has won eight times so this game will decide who leads the all–time series — until they meet again. They don't face each other every year. They last met in 2008, and Duke hasn't beaten Northwestern at home since 1989.
  
  I pick Northwestern to win.
• Troy at #24 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I could waste a lot of time on this, but there is really only one thing you need to know.
  
  Wisconsin has only lost at home six times since Nov. 12, 2005. I don't think Troy will be the seventh team to hand Wisconsin a loss at home.
  
  I choose Wisconsin to win.
• Texas–San Antonio at #25 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: These teams faced each other in 2013 and 2014, with OSU winning by wide margins both times.
  
  Now they meet for the third time. Oklahoma State usually wins by 25 points.

Last week: 19–3

Upset specials last week: 0–1

Season: 41–4

Upset specials overall: 1–1

I Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda Picked Northwestern

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I damn near got off to a perfect start last week. I picked Texas A&M to beat Arizona State in an upset special, and that one came through for me. I almost picked a second upset special. I was going to take Northwestern over Stanford, but, at the last minute, I went with Stanford. Then Northwestern won the game.

That was the only blemish on my record — and it really should have been avoided. That isn't sour grapes, either. I'm not the kind of guy who claims to have seriously considered picking an unpopular choice after that choice pulls off the upset if I really didn't. But in this case I did. I really did sit and think about that one longer than most of the others. I really did think Northwestern could do it. I just wasn't sold on Stanford.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. But, in the end, I didn't. That's the kind of game that makes college football the fascinating and unpredictable sport that it is.

Speaking of unpredictable ...

LSU's game with McNeese State was canceled by stormy weather and will not be made up. It is said to be the first cancellation of an LSU game since 1918, when World War I caused the cancellation of LSU's entire schedule. LSU's 2015 season opener will now be this week's conference game at Mississippi State.

Other than those two games, things got off to a great start for me. We'll see if that trend continues this week. The schedule seems to be a little more serious this week. Alabama–Wisconsin was the only matchup between two ranked teams last week. This week we have three.

Today

• Utah State at #24 Utah, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: With only five exceptions, these teams have played each other nearly every year since 1912 — and Utah has won more than 70% of the time.
  
  In fact, Utah State has beaten Utah only once since 1998.
  
  Clearly it has been a lopsided series. But don't let that keep you from watching. Sometimes Utah State has been capable of being competitive with Utah (like last year, for example, when Utah won by only four points).
  
  But I'd still bet on Utah to win the game — that is, if I happened to be a betting man.

Saturday

• Hawaii at #1 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This is going to be the first chapter in the story of this series. And, when the game is over, I think Hawaii is apt to be averse to writing another chapter.
  
  Hawaii has a 14–36 record over the last four seasons. In addition to being the home team, Ohio State is 44–10 in the same time span and won the national championship last year. My choice is easy — Ohio State.
• Middle Tennessee at #2 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The history of this series really isn't very instructive. The schools have met twice before and, as you would probably expect, Alabama won both games. The first meeting wasn't as lopsided as you might think, though. Alabama won by five points. And neither game was played with Nick Saban on the sidelines.
  
  So this will be a first in the Saban era. And I completely expect Alabama to win.
• Stephen F. Austin at #3 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX Sports 1: When I was growing up, I would have regarded this matchup as a tossup. But not today. TCU has proven itself to be a quality football program, and I fully expect a TCU victory.
• Lamar at #4 Baylor, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX Sports Network: There will be times this season, I am sure, when Baylor will struggle. I am not convinced, at this point, that the Bears will remain in the Top 10 all season. But they will remain there for at least another week. I pick Baylor to win the game.
• #7 Oregon at #5 Michigan State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I'm pretty sure the Spartans haven't forgotten their loss to the Ducks on Sept. 6 of last year. Their only other loss was to eventual national champion Ohio State. In fact, the Spartans played the two teams who played for the national title last season — and lost to both. Since those were Michigan State's only losses last year, it stands to reason that Michigan State could have been in the four–team playoff last January if the Spartans had won one of those games.
  
  They will have their chance to avenge last year's loss to Oregon this weekend — and, in the process, possibly take a giant step toward making this year's national playoffs. Avenging the Ohio State loss will have to wait until the weekend before Thanksgiving.
  
  This one ought to be entertaining for awhile; I think there are more questions about Oregon than about the Spartans, though, so I will take Michigan State to win at home.
• Jacksonville State at #6 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I don't see any reason to devote much space to this one. I choose Auburn.
• Idaho at #8 Southern California, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac 12 Network: These teams have played eight times, and the Trojans have won them all.
  
  I've heard nothing to suggest that will change. I pick Southern Cal.
• #9 Notre Dame at Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Lou Holtz was the coach of the Irish when Notre Dame beat Virginia in their only other meeting. Virginia really is more of a basketball school. Notre Dame has, at times, excelled in both football and basketball but seldom in the same year. Currently, they same to be enjoying a revival of the football program.
  
  I have to take Notre Dame.
• #10 Georgia at Vanderbilt, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This will be the 72nd meeting between these schools, and Georgia wins more than 75% of the time.
  
  Usually, there isn't much suspense. Vanderbilt has only beaten Georgia twice since 1995; the rest of the time, Georgia has tended to win by lopsided margins (except for the 2006 and 2007 games, which were decided by a field goal or less — and Vandy won one of those games).
  
  If Vanderbilt wins this game, it will really shake things up in the SEC. That won't happen. I pick Georgia.
• South Florida at #11 Florida State, 10:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: In this series, each team has hosted the other once — and the visiting team has won each time.
  
  Do I think that trend will continue? No. I pick Florida State.
• Appalachian State at #12 Clemson, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: This will be the first meeting between these schools, but I just can't see Clemson losing this game.
  
  It wouldn't matter where the game was being played. The fact that Clemson is playing at home makes a blowout seem more likely.
• #13 UCLA at UNLV, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This is the kind of matchup I could easily see happening on a basketball court — but not a football field. And, while these schools may well have faced other before in basketball, this is their first meeting on the gridiron.
  
  In the last five years, UNLV is 15–49. That's a winning percentage of .234. UNLV's winning percentage at home during that time is better but not by a lot — .375. UCLA is 39–27 during the same five–year period. That's a winning percentage of .591. The Bruins have broken even on the road, 15–15. I'll take UCLA.
• #14 LSU at #25 Mississippi State, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have faced off more than 100 times, and the only home field advantage belongs to LSU. Mississippi State is 5–14–1 at home against LSU. The Bulldogs have lost seven straight times to the Tigers in Starkville.
  
  I guess everyone remembers that Mississippi State beat LSU last season and reeled off nine straight wins, even rising to the top of the polls, before losing to Alabama and Ole Miss. I'm sure LSU remembers its loss last September, if not the losses that Mississippi State endured in November. LSU, after all, went 1–2 last November and finished the regular season 8–4, which is acceptable at many schools but not in Baton Rouge.
  
  I pick LSU.
• Tulane at #15 Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: Georgia Tech and Tulane revived a long–dormant rivalry last year as Georgia Tech won 38–21 in the first meeting between the teams in more than 30 years. Georgia Tech won on that occasion, too.
  
  This will be the 50th meeting between these schools, and Tech usually wins — more than 73% of the time.
  
  I have to go with Georgia Tech.
• Ball State at #16 Texas A&M, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This will be the first game between these two schools. I saw the Aggies play Arizona State last week, and I saw a team that has a lot of upside — a lot more than will be needed to handle the likes of Ball State, who is coming off a 5–7 season.
  
  Texas A&M went 6–6 last year and won its fourth straight bowl game. I pick Texas A&M.
• Fresno State at #17 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2/ESPNU: This will be the third time these teams have met since 2010, and Ole Miss won the first two.
  
  In recent years, Fresno has tended to put together seasons with enough wins to qualify for bowls, but those wins have come at the expense of college football's bottom feeders. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has been steadily improving in spite of playing in the best division in the best conference in college football. I have to pick Mississippi.
• Toledo at #18 Arkansas, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: These schools have never faced each other before. If they had met a couple of years ago, I probably would have had to pick Toledo to win.
  
  But the Razorbacks are ascendant now, looking to take the next step, and I really don't expect Arkansas to have any trouble in this game — unless they get caught looking ahead to Texas Tech, Texas A&M or the killer SEC lineup they will have to face in October and November.
• #19 Oklahoma at #23 Tennessee, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams played each other almost precisely one year ago — in Norman, Okla., where the Sooners took apart the Volunteers, 34–10.
  
  Tennessee is a more seasoned squad this time around, and the Vols will have the home field advantage this time. Based on the rankings — and what I know of each squad's personnel — it should be a good game. In my upset special, I pick Tennessee.
• #20 Boise State at Brigham Young, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is another one of those games that seemed like a natural regional rivalry, but they have only played each other five times since (and including) their first–ever meeting in 2004, and Boise State has won all but one — the exception just happens to be the last time they played at Brigham Young two years ago.
  
  Well, recent history suggests Boise State will win this time. After all, Boise has had double–digit wins in eight of the last nine seasons. Double–digit victory seasons used to be almost as routine at BYU, but not lately. Nevertheless, I expect an entertaining game.
• #21 Missouri at Arkansas State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: These teams have met three times in the past, and Missouri won each meeting. But this will be the first time that Arkansas State has been the host team. Will that make a difference?
  
  I'm inclined to think it won't. Missouri won by at least three touchdowns in each of those previous meetings, and I expect roughly the same this time.
• #22 Arizona at Nevada, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: I would have thought these schools would be natural border rivals, and they would meet every year, even though they don't play in the same conference.
  
  But the truth is that they only met for the first time a few years ago — in a bowl game. Arizona won a wild one, 49–48, then won the rematch at Arizona last year, 35–28. I'd like to think their third meeting will prove to be as competitive as the first two, but I don't expect a different outcome. I have to go with Arizona.

Last week: 22–1

Upset specials last week: 1–0

Season: 22–1

Upset specials overall: 1–0

College Football Returns

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Rejoice,football fans! The 2015 season is upon us.

OK, if you're a fan of pro football, you still have a week to wait before the season begins, but if you like college football, the season actually began last weekend (but come on, that was Montana and North Dakota State).

This weekend, starting tonight, we get our first glimpses of the teams that are thought to be the nation's best.

Today

• #2 TCU at Minnesota, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The first time these schools met was in 1974. TCU's football program was a doormat in those days. Minnesota's wasn't much better, but, on that occasion, the Gophers managed a two–point win at home.
  
  They met for the second time last year, and the Horned Frogs, now nationally recognized, thrashed Minnesota in Fort Worth. That is misleading for a couple of reasons. The loss came early in the season, and Minnesota won five of its next six. Then the Gophers lost to eventual national champion Ohio State by a touchdown — and Ohio State, it is worth remembering, beat some pretty impressive folks by wider margins.
  
  But, of course, no team is identical to the one that preceded it. Other than rankings, there really isn't much to go on in these first few games. I will defer to the polls and pick TCU to win the opener, but don't be surprised if Minnesota puts up a fight.
• Alcorn State at #16 Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports South: I don't think these schools have ever met in football.
  
  And I'm inclined to think that few ACC schools should be ranked in a preseason poll that isn't about basketball — and Georgia Tech isn't one of them.
  
  But it is important to remember that Georgia Tech played in the ACC title game last year (which it lost), then beat Mississippi State (which had been ranked #1 for a time) in the Orange Bowl. I'll take Georgia Tech.
• Texas–San Antonio at #22 Arizona, 9 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: These teams played in 2013 and 2014, and Arizona won both games.
  
  I've neither seen nor heard any reason to think something different will happen tonight so I will pick Arizona to win.

Friday

• #4 Baylor at SMU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These are old foes, having met annually as conference rivals between 1918 and 1995 — with the exceptions of the 1943 and 1944 seasons during World War II and the 1987 and 1988 seasons during the imposition of the NCAA's "death penalty" on the SMU program.
  
  Given their offseason woes, I don't know how long the Bears will remain ranked as high as they are, but this week I'm pretty sure Baylor will triumph.
• #5 Michigan State at Western Michigan, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is the 10th meeting between these schools, and Michigan State is undefeated in a series that dates back to 1918. However, all those other games were played at Michigan State. For the first time ever, the teams will play in Kalamazoo.
  
  Will that make a difference? Maybe, but I doubt it. I will take Michigan State in this one.
• Washington at #23 Boise State, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have met three times before but never on Boise State's turf. Washington won twice at home (including by 38–6 in 2013, the schools' most recent meeting), and Boise State's single win was its two–point victory in the 2012 Las Vegas Bowl.
  
  Most people are familiar with Boise State's recent success; fewer are likely to remember that Washington had a winning season last year. The Huskies struggled in the second half of the season, but they won their first four games. Boise State will be quite a challenge, though, and I will take Boise State at home, but Washington could surprise.

Saturday

• #20 Wisconsin vs. #3 Alabama in Arlington, Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is the only game on opening weekend that matches two ranked teams, and it really ought to be the best game of the weekend. Or, at least, one of them.
  
  Alabama hasn't lost its season opener since dropping its 2001 debut against UCLA. The bad start carried over into the rest of the season, and the Crimson Tide went 7–5 (which was a distinct improvement over Alabama's 3–8 record the year before). It was a lot more recent for Wisconsin — last season, in fact, when the Badgers lost to LSU.
  
  Historically, these teams met once before — when Calvin Coolidge was president. Wisconsin won on that occasion (Nov. 3, 1928), 15–0.
  
  Wisconsin beat Alabama's rival, Auburn, in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day a little over a month after Alabama beat Auburn in their traditional Iron Bowl showdown. Based on the rankings and recent history and after comparing the margins of victory against Auburn, I am inclined to pick Alabama, but it is a neutral site. Anything could happen. I'll stick with Alabama, though.
• Louisville vs. #6 Auburn in Atlanta, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: These teams have met only once before, in 1974, when Auburn won at Louisville, 16–3.
  
  That, of course, is irrelevant, but this is not — Louisville went 9–4 last year (which includes losses to Clemson and Florida State). The year before that, Louisville was 12–1; the year before that, Louisville was 11–2. This is a good football program.
  
  It should be fun. Auburn has an explosive offense, and Louisville, in spite of its past reputation, has a stingy defense. Both teams have holes to fill if they are to meet or exceed their 2014 performances. I will take Auburn.
• Eastern Washington at #7 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: As nearly as I can tell, these teams have never faced each other before.
  
  Oregon played in the national championship game last January and lost to Ohio State. The Ducks also lost their quarterback, but enough talent returns that they're still in the Top 10. I'll go with Oregon to win its fifth season opener in the last six seasons.
• Arkansas State at #8 Southern California, 10 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This is the first meeting between these schools. Southern Cal went through its time in the wilderness, but the Trojans seem to be back on track now.
  
  I'll stick with the home team in this one — Southern California.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #9 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC: These schools have met three times before, and Georgia has won all three.
  
  But they haven't met in 10 years so, for all intents and purposes, this is a first–time encounter. The Bulldogs are one of the favorites in the brutal SEC, and I don't think they will be derailed in this one. I'll take Georgia.
• Texas State at #10 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPNews: These teams have never faced each other before, but, really, does it matter? Florida State won the national title year before last and was in the conversation last year. Texas State doesn't seem likely to have the horses to stay with Florida State until halftime.
  
  I'll take Florida State.
• Texas at #11 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This matchup brings back memories of Cotton Bowls from my youth, back when a national champion could — and did — emerge from the Cotton Bowl.
  
  In fact, Texas has not beaten Notre Dame since the 1970 Cotton Bowl. Had there been ice on the ground for that game, as there was in the Cotton Bowl when the '70s were drawing to a close, that 1970 Cotton Bowl would have been college football's Ice Bowl. It followed a similar script. Like Green Bay in that legendary NFL championship game, the Longhorns trailed 17–14 late in the game and marched down the field for the winning touchdown. It was the pinnacle for Darrell Royal's vaunted Wishbone offense.
  
  Most of those times that the teams have faced each other, though, it hasn't been so dramatic, and the Irish typically win those games. This time, Texas seems to have a pretty good defense even if its offense is a bit of a mess, and that should be the challenge for the Irish. I'm thinking they will rise up to face the challenge. I take Notre Dame.
• Wofford at #12 Clemson, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network: You know, I could waste a lot of space on this, but what's the point? I expect Clemson to win.
• Virginia at #13 UCLA, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Historically, a basketball game between these schools would be more interesting than a football game. However, it was pretty good last year when they met for the first time, and UCLA emerged with an eight–point win.
  
  All of the Bruins' losses last year came at home, but those losses were to teams that ended up with winning records and bowl bids. One played for the national championship. And the Bruins hammered some pretty good times — Southern Cal, Arizona State — but struggled to beat some lesser ones.
  
  I will take UCLA, but be advised that Virginia could make it competitive again.
• McNeese State at #14 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: These schools last faced each other in 2010, when LSU rolled to a 32–10 victory and remained unbeaten — until the next week, when Cam Newton and Auburn beat the Tigers by a touchdown.
  
  LSU should have no problem on this occasion, either.
• #15 Arizona State at Texas A&M, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I've been hearing a lot of things about the Aggies, and I always try to take such talk with at least a grain of salt. In north Texas, one must deal with many A&M graduates, and they aren't usually without a bias of some kind.
  
  But some of the talk I take very seriously.
  
  I've heard talk of some position players who have improved in the off–season, and the Aggies will be unveiling the new Kyle Field. In my upset special, I take Texas A&M.
• Tennessee–Martin at #17 Mississippi, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I have found no indication that these schools have faced each other before, but a history really isn't necessary. For awhile last year, Ole Miss was regarded as one of the best teams in the nation. Tennessee–Martin was not, and there would have to be a dramatic dropoff in talent for Ole Miss to be the underdog in this game.
  
  I pick Mississippi.
• Texas–El Paso at #18 Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Arkansas is my alma mater, so I know what I will be doing on Saturday afternoon.
  
  These schools have played twice, and the Razorbacks won both. Those games were played in Arkansas. The first meeting, in 1989, was in Little Rock; the second meeting, in 2010, was in Fayetteville, like the one on Saturday. The Razorbacks' average margin of victory has been two touchdowns. I think Arkansas will win by at least that many points this time.
• Akron at #19 Oklahoma, 6 p.m. (Central) on Pay–Per–View: These schools have never met before, and, frankly, I have had far more exposure to Akron's basketball program than its football program.
  
  That really isn't surprising. Akron's football team hasn't won more than it lost in a single season in a decade.
  
  Everyone knows OU's reputation in football. In fact, it was that very reputation that had me excited when I began a four–year teaching gig at OU — but then the Sooners proceeded to have probably the four worst consecutive seasons in their history.
  
  They're a lot better now, and my guess is Oklahoma will win without too much trouble.
• #21 Stanford at Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools faced each other six times between 1933 and 1994 — but this will be their first encounter since fighting to a 41–41 tie in Chicago almost 21 years ago.
  
  It was a competitive series. Stanford won three times, Northwestern won once, and there were two ties. Northwestern's only win in the series came in Chicago in 1958.
  
  Outside of that Alabama–Wisconsin game, this one looks like it might be the most competitive game.
  
  It is worth remembering, though, that Northwestern has only one win over a Pac–12 team in the last 20 years, and I don't think the Wildcats will win this one. I pick Stanford.
• Southeast Missouri State at #24 Missouri, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I really can't think of a reason why the Tigers would lose this game. I pick Missouri to prevail.
• Bowling Green vs. #25 Tennessee in Nashville, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC: I guess a lot of folks think the Volunteers haven't been worthy of a ranking since Peyton Manning played there. But that, after all, was in the late 1990s. Since Peyton went on to the NFL, Tennessee has finished with 10 or more wins four times and nearly did it a few other times.
  
  Of late, though, the Vols have struggled. They finished 7–6 last year, but, mostly, they've had losing records in the last seven years.
  
  Bowling Green has enjoyed some success during that time, but double–digit victories in a season have been rare.
  
  This is the first time these teams have played, but that massive stadium in Knoxville, along with a rejuvenated Volunteer squad, should be too much for Bowling Green. I pick Tennessee.

Monday

• #1 Ohio State at Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: What a way to kick off a season of Monday night football games. Defending national champion Ohio State travels to take on the only team to beat the Buckeyes last year.
  
  Virginia Tech was full of contradictions last year. In their second game, the Hokies beat the eventual national champions on the road — but then lost to East Carolina and Georgia Tech at home the next two weekends. In 2014, the Hokies were 3–2 on the road (one of those losses was to lowly Wake Forest) but only 3–4 at home.
  
  Given the Hokies' poor home record last year — along with the fact that the Buckeyes haven't lost a regular–season road game since Nov. 26, 2011, I'll pick Ohio State to win.