The End of Miami's Reign

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In the early '70s, the team of the decade seemed to be the Miami Dolphins. Mostly, that was due to the Dolphins' perfect season in 1972. It seemed to set them up for a long stretch of success, one that might extend through the entire decade.

As great as the '72 team was, though, I always thought the '73 team was better because it had to defend the '72 team's legacy. The '73 team came into the season with a gigantic target painted squarely on each player's chest. For every team that played the Dolphins in '73, that was the game of the year.

The '73 team stood up to that challenge, going 12–2 and returning to the Super Bowl and winning. Thus, over that two–year span, Miami won 32 of 34 games.

So, when the 1974 season began, Miami was a two–time defending Super Bowl champion with a .941 winning percentage over the previous two seasons. The Dolphins started the season with a loss to New England, then won 11 of the next 13 games. It looked like the Dolphins might get the chance to win their third straight Super Bowl.

Standing in their way, though, were the Oakland Raiders, the same bunch who snapped their legendary winning streak in the second week of the season after the history–making 17–0 campaign. In the AFC semifinals on this date in 1974, the 11–3 Dolphins took the field against the 12–2 Raiders in Oakland.

It was widely assumed that, with the winner slated to face either the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship game the following week, the winner of this game would represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. At halftime, it appeared it would be Miami. The Dolphins led, 10–7.

But the Raiders outscored the Dolphins, 21–16, in the second half and won on Clarence Davis' eight–yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

The Raiders advanced to the AFC title game against the Steelers. Everyone thought the Raiders would win. The Steelers had never been to a Super Bowl before. Of course, the Raiders had only been to one at that time, but they had come close frequently. Their time had come. That was what the conventional wisdom said.

But times changed. The Raiders lost to the Steelers, and Terry Bradshaw went on to lead Pittsburgh to the first of four Super Bowl titles in six years.

It's That Time of Year; The Bowl Season Is Upon Us

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College football's postseason is under way, and with it comes the first Division I college football playoff. I predict the outcomes of the New Year's Day semifinals, and I'll follow with a prediction of the championship game when the participants are known.

Every Top 25 team is in action, starting with #23 Utah against Colorado State in today's Las Vegas Bowl. My alma mater, the University of Arkansas, will be in action this bowl season even though the Razorbacks are not ranked. Neither are their opponents, the Texas Longhorns. I'm looking forward to it, though.

This year's bowl season has some intriguing matchups. It should be fun.

Saturday, Dec. 20

• Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas, Nevada: Colorado State vs. #23 Utah, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Until recently, these schools were conference rivals so there is an extensive history to observe.
  
  In fact, this will be the 80th meeting between the schools. Colorado State has held the upper hand with seven wins in the last eight games.
  
  Colorado State has the 12th–ranked offense; Utah's offense is #84. Neither defense is in the Top 70, which leads me to believe this game will be dominated by offense, and Colorado State's is clearly better.
  
  I pick Colorado State.

Saturday, Dec. 27

• Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas: Duke vs. #15 Arizona State, 1 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This will be the first chapter in this series.
  
  The Sun Devils' offense is the marquee unit in this game, and I think it will produce a victory for Arizona State.
• Holiday Bowl, San Diego: #24 Southern Cal vs. #25 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have met only four times.
  
  Southern Cal has never lost to Nebraska. The closest call was in 1970, when the teams fought to a 21–21 draw. It was Nebraska's only blemish in that national championship season.
  
  So here they are again — playing on a neutral site for the first time (although it is hard to imagine San Diego being a neutral site when Southern Cal's players and fans can drive there in about two hours).
  
  Statistically, Nebraska has a bigger advantage on defense than Southern Cal has on offense, but I'm wondering about the Cornhuskers' states of mind. I mean, after all, their head coach was fired after the conclusion of the regular season and a new coach has been hired for next season — but an interim coach will direct the team in the Holiday Bowl.
  
  What kind of effect will the distractions have on Nebraska? That is the great unknown. Sounds to me like they were glad to resume their routine after all the developments.
  
  I have found Southern Cal to be inconsistent this season, and I think Nebraska will win — barely.

Monday, Dec. 29

• Russell Athletic Bowl, Orlando, Florida: Oklahoma vs. #18 Clemson, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Clemson has the best defense in the nation — statistically.
  
  Oklahoma has the 19th–best offense — statistically. It should be interesting when OU has the ball — much more interesting than it will be when Clemson is on offense. The Tigers are 59th in offense, and the Sooners are 53rd in defense.
  
  They've only met three times, most recently in the January 1989 Citrus Bowl, which was won by Clemson.
  
  I think Clemson will win this time, too.

Tuesday, Dec. 30

• Music City Bowl, Nashville, Tennessee: Notre Dame vs. #22 LSU, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have played each other 10 times, and each has won five.
  
  LSU won the last time they met — in the January 2007 Sugar Bowl. In fact, LSU won the other time they met in the postseason — in the December 1997 Independence Bowl. Historically, the Tigers would be in trouble if they were playing the Irish in Baton Rouge or South Bend. But the fact that they're playing in a neutral site seems to work in LSU's favor.
  
  Statistically, LSU has a huge advantage on defense; Notre Dame has a more modest advantage on offense. The big number seems to be LSU's ranking on defense — #8. I think that will prove to be too much for the Irish.
  
  I pick LSU.
• Belk Bowl, Charlotte, North Carolina: #20 Louisville vs. #13 Georgia, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the first chapter in what could become a pretty intense series.
  
  I don't think it can become a full–fledged rivalry — besides, Georgia already has plenty of those — but, for a nonconference series, I think it could be very entertaining.
  
  In past seasons, you would be correct in assuming that Louisville had the better offense and Georgia had the better defense — but, this season, the roles are reversed. Louisville has the nation's sixth–best defense. Georgia's defense isn't bad (#20); it just hasn't been as good.
  
  On offense, Georgia is ranked #28, and Louisville has been terrible (#68). I'm inclined to think that Louisville's woeful offense will be its undoing, and I pick Georgia to win.

Wednesday, Dec. 31

• Peach Bowl, Atlanta: #6 TCU vs. #9 Ole Miss, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: You have to go back to 1949 to find the only time TCU beat Ole Miss. The Rebels have a four–game winning streak against the Frogs, but that really doesn't mean much. They haven't faced each other since Oct. 15, 1983.
  
  Like the Baylor Bears, I'm sure TCU was disappointed not to be included in college football's Final Four. But, per the Fort Worth Star–Telegram, the Frogs are happy to be playing in a bowl game. Considering how low preseason expectations were, I should think they would be.
  
  TCU finished the season with the nation's sixth–best offense. It is sure to be challenged by Ole Miss' 13th–ranked defense. TCU also has the statistical edge when Ole Miss has the ball, but it isn't as pronounced. That might make things more interesting when the Rebels are on offense.
  
  When all is said and done, though, I think TCU will win.
• Orange Bowl, Miami: #10 Georgia Tech vs. #8 Mississippi State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met four times, and Georgia Tech has won them all.
  
  But Mississippi State has never been as good when the Bulldogs have faced the Yellow Jackets as they have been this year.
  
  Folks who tune in to this game will see two really good offenses and two mediocre defenses. I expect a high–scoring game and, since the Bulldogs have the higher–ranked offense, I expect Mississippi State to win the game.
• Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Arizona: #21 Boise State vs. #12 Arizona, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The offenses will get all the attention in this one — and rightfully so.
  
  Boise always has good offenses. This year's edition is #13 in the nation. Only two teams in Arizona's conference, the Pac–12 (where offense wins championships), are ranked higher — and Arizona ain't one of 'em, although Arizona is ranked 26th in the nation, which isn't too shabby.
  
  Defense is an afterthought in the Pac–12. While Boise is ranked 39th nationally in defense, only one Pac–12 team (Stanford) finished better. It is safe to say that defense is a challenge for the Wildcats; Arizona isn't even in the Top 100 nationally.
  
  Defense will be Arizona's undoing. Perhaps one day the Pac–12 will realize that defense still wins games — and championships. I pick Boise State.

Thursday, Jan. 1, 2015

• Outback Bowl, Tampa, Florida: #17 Wisconsin vs. #19 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: In three previous meetings, each team won once and there was a tie (in 1931).
  
  Probably the most enticing matchup will come when Auburn has the ball. The Tigers' offense is ranked 17th, but it must face Wisconsin's fourth–ranked defense. Wisconsin's 23rd–ranked offense figures to have an easier time against Auburn's #59 defense.
  
  I'm taking Wisconsin.
• Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida: Minnesota vs. #16 Missouri, noon (Central) on ABC: Missouri hasn't beaten Minnesota since 1945 — and, yes, the teams have faced each other since then. Five times, in fact. The last time was in 1970, though, so these are not familiar foes.
  
  Neither team was impressive on offense this season. I think this will be a low–scoring game, probably decided by whichever team makes the big play on defense. For that, I think Missouri (#23 on defense) is better equipped than Minnesota (#37).
  
  So I'll take Minnesota.
• Cotton Bowl, Arlington, Texas: #4 Baylor vs. #7 Michigan State, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: It really is hard to understand why the nation's #1 offense (Baylor) will not be playing in the national championship playoff.
  
  Nevertheless, if the Bears can shake off the disappointment, I am certain they will play up to their capability in the Cotton Bowl, where they should expect a fairly strong local following.
  
  They will also encounter a pretty good Michigan State team, one that is in the Top 20 in both offense and defense.
  
  This is only the second meeting between these schools. They played each other in September 1968, and Michigan State won the game. But, of course, there is little, if anything, that can be gleaned from the outcome of a game that was played nearly half a century ago.
  
  However, one past result — last year's Fiesta Bowl — appears to be motivating the Bears.
  
  I pick Baylor.
• Rose Bowl (National Semifinal), Pasadena, California: #3 Oregon vs. #2 Florida State, 4 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be an interesting game, featuring the current and previous Heisman winners.
  
  There is no history between these programs, either.
  
  Both offenses are way better than the defenses. Oregon's offense, as you would expect, is #3. Florida State's is #40.
  
  The Seminoles have the advantage on defense, but that doesn't really mean much. Florida State is #53 in the country. Oregon is #81.
  
  I expect a lot of scoring, but I think Oregon will do more of it than Florida State and advance to the national championship game.
• Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal), New Orleans: #1 Alabama vs. #5 Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically, Alabama is 3–0 against Ohio State, but they haven't met since 1998.
  
  They always meet on neutral sites, though. This will be the third time in a bowl (second Sugar Bowl), and they met once in the Kickoff Classic.
  
  Statistically, this could be good enough to be the national championship. Both teams are in the Top 20 in both offense and defense. Alabama has the advantage on defense; Ohio State has the advantage on offense although I have to wonder how well the Buckeyes will perform without the injured J.T. Barrett. Granted, they played well in the Big Ten title game, but Alabama is the big time, winner of three national championships in the last five years.
  
  I don't know if this will be high scoring or low scoring. I just think it will be close, and I think Alabama will win.

Friday, Jan. 2

• Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, Texas: #11 Kansas State vs. #14 UCLA, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met twice, both in recent times, and the home team won the game each time.
  
  But this game is being played in a neutral site.
  
  Statistically, UCLA had the better offense (#22), and Kansas State had the better defense (#35 nationally). There is a wider gap, though, between Kansas State's offense (#47) and UCLA's defense (#68).
  
  I'll take Kansas State.

Championship week: 6–2

Season: 206–50

College Football's Playoff Field Comes Into Focus This Weekend

There aren't many games involving Top 25 teams this week. We're down to mostly the conference championship games — with a few regular–season finales for those who play in conferences that do not have championship games.

But just about every game on the schedule could conceivably influence the Final Four that will meet in January.

There are several schools that are deserving of at least being given a chance. If it was up to me, I would double the number of participants to eight. Winning this weekend won't necessarily propel those teams into the playoff, but it could easily deprive the losing team of a slot.
Idle: #7 Michigan State, #10 Mississippi State, #13 Ole Miss, #15 Georgia, #16 UCLA, #17 Arizona State, #19 Clemson, #20 Auburn, #21 Louisville, #23 LSU, #24 Utah, #25 Nebraska

Friday

• Pac–12 Championship: #8 Arizona vs. #3 Oregon at Santa Clara, Calif., 8 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Try to imagine how the Oregon Ducks must feel.
  
  Oregon has won 16 of the last 21 games with Arizona. But Arizona handed Oregon its only loss of the season — so far — on Oct. 2, 31–24. No other team held Oregon under 38 points this season — and, were it not for the Wildcats, Oregon might well be ranked #1 right now and might have been ranked #1 for several weeks now.
  
  Is the time for retribution at hand?
  
  Oregon has the fourth–best offense in the land. Neither defense has been impressive this season, and it is hard to imagine Arizona's holding QB Marcus Mariota and the Ducks in check again. It is so difficult to beat a team twice in one season. I don't think it will happen this time. I pick Oregon to win.

Saturday

• SEC Championship: #14 Missouri vs. #1 Alabama at Atlanta, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: The first time these two teams met was on a neutral field. Of course, that was the 1968 Gator Bowl. Missouri won on that occasion, 35–10.
  
  Missouri faced Bear Bryant a second time &mdashl and a third, actually — before he retired. In 1975, Missouri beat Alabama in the season opener; the Crimson Tide didn't lose again for more than a year.
  
  Bryant beat Missouri a few years laterThis could be a defensive struggle. Both defenses are ranked in the Top 20.
  
  Alabama's offense is in the Top 20, too, which should make for some very entertaining viewing when the Crimson Tide has the ball. But Missouri's offense is barely in the Top 100. I will be very surprised if Missouri puts very many points on the board.
  
  I can't see Missouri generating enough offense to win. I pick Alabama.
• #12 Georgia Tech vs. #2 Florida State at Charlotte, N.C., 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is a rematch of the ACC title game from two years ago. They haven't met since Florida State's 21–15 triumph.
  
  The Seminoles have won 13 of their last 15 games with Georgia Tech.
  
  Don't look now, though, but Tech might prove to be more than a handful for Florida State. Tech has a higher rated offense, and its defense hasn't compiled stats that are impressive, but the overall performances have been comparable.
  
  It wouldn't surprise me if Georgia Tech wins this game, but I'll still pick Florida State.
• Iowa State at #4 TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Iowa State has only beaten TCU once — but that was in 2012, the last time the Cyclones traveled to Fort Worth.
  
  Iowa State has seldom had a winning season in football. Basketball is more the Cyclones' style.
  
  TCU is kind of a newcomer to the world of big–time football. The Frogs are probably in the national championship playoff unless the Frogs find a way to blow it against an Iowa State team to which they are clearly superior. The margin isn't as crucial to TCU as it is to Baylor.
  
  I will take TCU.
• #9 Kansas State at #5 Baylor, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: If Baylor is to make a run at the college football playoff, the Bears need to beat the Wildcats — decisively.
  
  That may be hard for Baylor to accomplish. Both teams have pretty good defenses — K–State's is ranked #23 while Baylor's is ranked #39.
  
  Baylor has the top–ranked offense in the land, which should make things interesting when the Bears have the ball. It ought to be a pretty even match when the Wildcats have the ball. Their offense is ranked #47.
  
  K–State's coaching staff would probably feel a lot better about this game if it was being played in Manhattan, where KSU holds a 4–1 all–time advantage in the series. In Waco, the teams are tied, 3–3. In fact, Baylor has a three–game winning streak at home against the Wildcats. Kansas State hasn't won in Waco since October 2002.
  
  I get the feeling that Baylor will win this game. Will the Bears win convincingly enough to get into the playoff? Time will tell.
• Big Ten Championship: #11 Wisconsin vs. #6 Ohio State at Indianapolis, 7:17 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This might be the most entertaining game of the weekend — because, without QB J.T. Barrett, Ohio State's offense will be winging it.
  
  Barrett is the third–most efficient QB in the country. He plays in one of the nation's power conferences, which means his numbers are not suspect. It would be absurd to think that Barrett could be taken from the equation and Ohio State's offense wouldn't miss a beat.
  
  Both teams are in the Top 20 in offense, but Wisconsin has the second–best defense in the land. Barrett might have struggled, anyway. Ohio State has a pretty good defense, too. It is ranked 19th.
  
  But, if Ohio State has trouble moving the ball with a largely untried backup QB calling signals, points may be hard for Ohio State to come by. I'm guessing Wisconsin will win.
• Oklahoma State at #18 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: This game between in–state rivals is known as Bedlam. Has been for years. I don't know the story behind it. I only lived in Oklahoma for four years as an adult. I didn't grow up there — and that, I have come to believe, is necessary if one is to be acquainted with all the legends and lore surrounding football programs, especially the OU football program, in Oklahoma.
  
  I only heard it referred to as "the Bedlam series." I'm sure there must be a good story behind that. I just never heard it.
  
  Historically, OU wins nearly 80% of the time. In fact, that is current OU coach Bob Stoops' winning percentage against the Cowboys. He has won 12 out of 15 with Oklahoma State, and he is 6–1 when their game is played in Norman.
  
  Oklahoma has played better on both sides of the ball. The gap is not as huge on defense as it is on offense, but neither unit seems likely to produce an unlikely road victory for OSU. I pick Oklahoma.
• Mountain West Championship: Fresno State at #22 Boise State, 9 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Boise State is 11–2 against Fresno State since the dawn of the 21st century, and Boise hasn't lost at home to Fresno in more than 30 years.
  
  That includes their most recent meeting in Boise — on Oct. 17 when Boise State prevailed, 37–27.
  
  Boise State probably expected to be playing San Diego State, which was marginally better than Fresno State but lost in their head–to–head clash two months ago.
  
  It would be more appropriate, really, for Boise State to face Colorado State for the conference championship. Both are 10–2; Fresno State is 6–6. But Boise State and Colorado State play in the same division, and Boise State won their head–to–head meeting in early September.
  
  Boise State has a better offense and defense than Fresno State. It really shouldn't be as close as it was in October. I pick Boise State.

Last week: 14–5

Season: 200–48