Rumblin' in the Jungle

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"If you were surprised when Nixon resigned, just watch what happens when I whup Foreman's behind."

Muhammad Ali
October 1974

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"Forty years ago this month, the eyes of the world turned to Kinshasa [Zaire] to watch the 'Rumble in the Jungle,' the legendary boxing event that saw Muhammad Ali and George Foreman slug it out for the world heavyweight title," writes Thomas Yocum for The Guardian.

Muhammad Ali was a great fighter, one of the greatest of all time, as he frequently told anyone who would listen. He wouldn't stop there, though. Often, he would tell folks who did not want to listen.

He was also a master showman, and I guess he figured — correctly — that most people believed that a 32–year–old boxer who had been prevented from competing during his prime years because he refused to fight in Vietnam would be unable to stay with the heavyweight champ.

George Foreman was young and powerful. He had grabbed the title in 1973 with a hammering of Joe Frazier, and, in his second defense of his title, he brought down one of the top contenders for the title, Ken Norton, in similarly dominant fashion. Seemed he barely worked up a sweat in either. At times, you could have sworn he was actually bored.

Frazier and Norton, it is worth noting, were the only two boxers who had beaten Ali up to that time. Norton broke Ali's jaw.

In the three years prior to his bout with Ali, Foreman fought in 11 fights — all but one were done in two rounds or less, and that single exception was finished in five rounds. Foreman was used to fights that were scheduled for 15 rounds; he simply wasn't accustomed to fights that actually went that long.

Therein lay the key to Ali's upset victory. He knew that the longer he could keep the fight going, the more he would frustrate Foreman. Foreman would make mistakes, and Ali would wait for those mistakes, then exploit them. It was his "Rope–a–Dope" strategy.

Well, there was more to it than that, but that's a pretty good summary of the strategy. The "Rope–a–Dope" strategy was to force Foreman to use a lot of his energy pounding away at Ali, who would lean back on the ropes and cover his face with his gloves while Foreman hammered his midsection. Few, if any, observers thought Ali could take punches anymore, especially the powerful punches Foreman threw, but he surprised them all.

"They told me you could punch, George," Ali taunted Foreman in the early rounds. "Is that the best you can do?" An enraged Foreman tried to throw even harder punches — but with no apparent effect on Ali.

Foreman became visibly tired, and Ali was able to bring him down in the eighth round. It may have been a bigger shock to the sports world than his triumph over Sonny Liston 10 years earlier.

Originally scheduled for Sept. 24, the bout was postponed for five weeks because Foreman suffered a cut near his right eye while he was preparing for Ali.

When the men finally met 40 years ago tonight, their fight began at 4 a.m. local time to accommodate the closed–circuit audience in the Western Hemisphere.

The postponement gave Ali an opportunity to bond a little with the locals while he spent the extra time preparing for the fight.

I remember seeing footage of Ali running Rocky–like through the streets of Kinshasa, and the locals, young and old, running along with him or watching from the side, were chanting, "Ali, bomaye!" — which means, "Ali, kill him!" It quickly became one of the most recognizable sports–oriented phrases ever.

Killing people wasn't Ali's way, though. Any boxing expert will tell you that the fighters who take that mentality into the ring with them are the sluggers, and Ali was no slugger. He was a finesse fighter, more likely to win on points than on a knockout. The ironic part is that Ali did win most of his fights by knockout. That's the thing that people often forget. It's the thing that Foreman apparently forgot, and it cost him his title.

That was the key to the success of the "Rope–a–Dope" strategy. Ali had a reputation for outlasting opponents and winning on points, even though three–quarters of his wins up to that time were by knockout, so his approach likely made sense to Foreman, probably the best slugger of the time. He didn't expect Ali to go for the knockout after Foreman ran out of gas, though. He probably expected Ali to land a lot of punches in the later rounds in an attempt to pile up points — and Foreman walked right into the trap, landing punch after punch to Ali's midsection — proving repeatedly that Ali could take a punch.

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I suppose it would be natural for him to be bitter about the outcome.

"I hated Ali," Foreman told The Daily Express. "Hated him."

Understandable. Foreman was deceived. I guess everyone was.

Ali's "Rope–a–Dope" strategy wasn't evident in the first round. It was more evident in the second round — enough that Frazier, who was sitting ringside, remarked about it and wondered on the air, in response to British TV host David Frost's question, why Ali was leaning against the ropes so much.

By the end of the third round, Frazier was criticizing Foreman for being too wild in his punches and not thinking things through. He needed to be more deliberate and strategic. The champ was going to wear himself out, Frazier said prophetically.

Tellingly, when the fight was over and Ali was mobbed at center ring by admirers, Foreman and his entourage slipped quietly away almost without notice. Foreman's head was hanging in the dejection of defeat.

Nobody wants to mob a vanquished champion.

A Peek at a Possible Final Four

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If the college football season ended today, the playoff field would be: Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn and Ole Miss. So says the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Of course, the college football season does not end today — or this weekend. There are still many games to be played. And my guess is that, when the dust settles, at least two of the teams in the preliminary Final Four won't be in the playoff.

That doesn't mean they won't deserve to be — which is why I think a four–team playoff is inadequate for a sport in which more than 120 teams compete.

There are several teams who were left out of the preliminary Final Four but deserve to be there — and perhaps some will be included when the season is over. The playoff will be a good start, a tentative first step in the right direction — toward a real playoff.

And that is what this will be. Make no mistake about it. The first step.

A college football playoff needs to include conference champions, and there are at least five that should be represented — the ACC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the Pac–12 and the SEC. Others could be included but, obviously, some at–large teams would need to be there.

What every playoff, every tournament needs is the presence of a team that has the potential to be the classic underdog who seemingly comes from nowhere to win it all — or at least come close to winning it all. You can't have such an unexpected champion when the four best teams in the land are competing because it would be no surprise to see any of them win it. But if you have a 16–team field — and especially if the #16 seed beats the #1 seed in the first round — you have the potential for some first–rate sports drama.

Let's use this week's AP rankings to form a hypothetical 16–team field.

The top seed (Mississippi State) would host the #16 seed (LSU). The second seed (Florida State) would host the #15 seed (Arizona State). The third seed (Alabama) would host the #14 seed (Arizona). The fourth seed (Auburn) would host the #13 seed (Ohio State). The fifth seed (Oregon) would face the #12 seed (Baylor). The sixth seed (Notre Dame) would play the #11 seed (Kansas State). The seventh seed (Ole Miss) would host the #10 seed (TCU). And the eighth seed (Michigan State) would host the ninth seed (Georgia).

I don't know a college football fan who wouldn't want to see all those games — and the second–round matchups they produced.

Chances are that this field would include the champions of all five conferences — but there is a chance that the winner of a conference's championship game might have lost two or three games during the regular season but put it all together at the end — and still wasn't ranked in the Top 16. In that case, I suppose the selection committee would have to replace that conference's lowest–seeded team with its champion. How that would affect the seedings would depend on which approach the selection committee chose to take.

Idle: #3 Alabama, #8 Michigan State, #16 LSU, #22 Clemson, #23 Marshall

Thursday

• #2 Florida State at Louisville, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Louisville has only beaten Florida State once — the last time they met, in 2002.
  
  That game, like this one, was played in Louisville.
  
  Louisville was ranked earlier in the season, but the Cardinals fell from the rankings after losses to Virginia and Clemson. Nevertheless, they have the nation's top–ranked defense, which should be able to frustrate the Seminoles' #44 offense. Meanwhile, FSU's 53rd–ranked defense should be able to handle Louisville's 91st–ranked offense.
  
  I think this could be a low–scoring, defensive game. I'll pick Florida State.

Saturday

• Arkansas at #1 Mississippi State, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The Razorbacks lead the all–time series on the strength of their performance at home. In Starkville, they lead, 6–5, and they lost their last trip there two years ago.
  
  The Razorbacks are clearly better this year than they were last. Their offense is ranked 34th, and their defense is ranked 40th. Their problem is that every SEC team they have faced so far has been ranked — and each one they play for the rest of the season likely will be, too — until, possibly, the season–ending game with Missouri.
  
  As an Arkansas grad, I would love to see Arkansas beat the top–ranked team, but, once again, I just don't think they have the horses. Yet. Next year, maybe. Next year, most of the guys who are playing this year will have another year of college experience under their belts, and the game will be in Fayetteville — and Mississippi State probably won't be ranked #1. But this year, I have to pick Mississippi State.
• #4 Auburn at #7 Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: There is a pattern in this series. Whenever Ole Miss beats Auburn, Auburn wins at least three in a row, often more, before Ole Miss wins again. It's been that way since the '70s.
  
  Anyway, Ole Miss beat Auburn two years ago, and Auburn beat Ole Miss last year. According to the decades–old pattern, Auburn should win this year and next year at least before Ole Miss beats the Tigers again.
  
  I'm sure Ole Miss is reeling from its loss to LSU last Saturday. But this is the nature of the SEC. No sooner do you get past one hurdle than there is another one in your way. This week's hurdle is fourth–ranked Auburn.
  
  Auburn has the 19th–best offense, which should be challenged by Ole Miss' ninth–ranked defense. That is the marquee matchup. When Ole Miss has the ball, the Rebels will be fielding the #61 offense. Auburn's defense is ranked #46.
  
  I think everything points to an Auburn victory.
• Stanford at #5 Oregon, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Oregon lost three games in the last two years. Two of those losses were to Stanford, which has enjoyed more than its share of success in Eugene (16 wins in 34 visits).
  
  The task is daunting this year. Oregon has the eighth–ranked offense, led by the leader in passing efficiency, Marcus Mariota. Should be a challenge for Stanford's second–ranked defense.
  
  In true Pac–12 fashion, Oregon's defense is ranked 106th in the nation, but even that unit might be able to make some plays against Stanford's 80th–ranked offense.
  
  This will probably be regarded as an upset special, but I'm going to pick Stanford.
• #6 Notre Dame at Navy, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This series dates back to the days of Knute Rockne, and Rockne never lost to Navy.
  
  This will be the schools' 84th meeting since Rockne's death in an airplane crash in 1931, and you'd swear Rockne was still coaching, based on the series record. The Irish are 74–12–1 against Navy.
  
  The series has actually been fairly competitive in recent years, though. In the last seven meetings, Notre Dame is 4–3.
  
  Statistically, there really isn't much difference between these teams on offense, but Notre Dame appears to have a solid advantage on defense.
  
  I know this will be a huge surprise, given the record of the series, but I'm going to take Notre Dame.
• Florida at #9 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Georgia leads the all–time series and has won the last three meetings.
  
  Georgia's offense has been good but not necessarily great so far — but that is far ahead of Florida. Both defenses are ranked in the Top 10, which makes me think this could an old–fashioned SEC game with a final score like 9–6.
  
  But I have to take Georgia to win it, no matter the score.
• #10 TCU at #20 West Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN: Since West Virginia joined the Big 12 two years ago, its games with TCU have been competitive — margins of a field goal or less both times — and the home team has yet to win.
  
  Statistically, these teams have been average on defense, and there isn't much that separates them. But they have been exceptional on offense. TCU is ranked second and West Virginia is ranked 10th. TCU scored 82 points against Texas Tech last week and nearly won at Waco two weeks before. Alabama held West Virginia to 23 points in the season opener, and the Mountaineers have scored at least 33 points in every game since.
  
  Should be a good game. I'm going to pick TCU.
• Oklahoma State at #11 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Oklahoma State has dominated this series.
  
  K–State had the upper hand in the '90s, but, otherwise, it has been almost entirely OSU. This will be their eighth meeting since 2003, and Oklahoma State is 5–2 against Kansas State in that time.
  
  Historically, the Cowboys have a winning record in Manhattan, but it isn't as impressive as their record in Stillwater. Lately, though, the Wildcats have won seven of the last eight games played in Manhattan including the last one.
  
  Kansas State's defense (ranked 20th in the nation) is the marquee unit and should have little difficulty with Oklahoma State's offense (#72). It ought to be more competitive when K–State has the ball (#56 in the nation). Oklahoma State's defense is ranked 79th.
  
  I pick Kansas State.
• Kansas at #12 Baylor, 3 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Baylor has beaten Kansas in six of their last eight meetings — and currently owns a four–game winning streak over the Jayhawks.
  
  There was a time when these teams were the doormats of their respective conferences — and even, for awhile, as members of the same conference. But times have changed for Baylor, which brings the nation's top–ranked offense (led by QB Bryce Petty and running back Shock Linwood) to this game. Kansas' offense is one of the worst (ranked #110).
  
  Baylor also has a pretty good defense (#18 in the nation). Kansas' defense is ranked 74th.
  
  It seems obvious. I pick Baylor.
• Illinois at #13 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC and ESPN3.com: These teams have met nearly every season since 1914. The winner takes possession of the Illibuck, a carved wooden turtle, the second–oldest trophy in the Big Ten (behind the storied Little Brown Jug). Ohio State has dominated the series and has taken home the trophy 14 of the last 17 times.
  
  Both Ohio State's offense and defense are Top 20 units. Illinois' defense isn't even in the Top 100; I find it hard to believe the Illini will stop the nation's third–most efficient passer, J.T. Barrett. Illinois' offense isn't much better (#76).
  
  I have to pick Ohio State.
• #14 Arizona at #25 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: UCLA leads the series, but Arizona had won six of the last seven meetings when UCLA beat the Wildcats in 2012 and followed that with another win in 2013. Arizona has a slight edge when the game is played in Tucson; unfortunately for the Wildcats, though, the game is in Los Angeles this year, where UCLA wins nearly three–quarters of the time.
  
  This game has a couple of Top 20 offenses — Arizona is #6, UCLA is #20 — and a couple of mediocre defenses (UCLA is 86th nationally, Arizona is 97th). My guess is that many points will be scored.
  
  In spite of a couple of winning seasons in 2012 and 2013, Arizona is relatively new to the world of competitive football. In fact, both schools are probably best known for their accomplishments in basketball. The Bruins are more accustomed to the glare of the football spotlight than the Wildcats.
  
  I'll take UCLA.
• #18 Utah at #15 Arizona State, 10 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Arizona State has a 10–game winning streak against Utah. Since Utah has been in the Pac–12 for only a few years, most of those games were nonconference matches that weren't necessarily played annually. You have to go back to the bicentennial year of 1976 to find Utah's last win over Arizona State.
  
  Statistically, Arizona State has a much better offense than Utah. And, while Utah has a higher–rated defense, it is statistically average. I think the Utes will be outmanned, and I believe Arizona State will win what should be an entertaining game.
• Purdue at #17 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN: Purdue won its first meeting with Nebraska in 1958, then the teams didn't meet again until Nebraska joined the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers crushed the Boilermakers on their home turf, 44–7, last year.
  
  Running back Ameer Abdullah is averaging 156 yards rushing per game for a Nebraska offense that is ranked 13th. Sounds like Cornhusker football to me. I'll take Nebraska.
• #19 Oklahoma at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: When I taught at OU, the Sooners had probably their worst football teams, but they always managed to beat Iowa State.
  
  In fact, Iowa State was probably the only team OU beat all four years I was there.
  
  The Sooners have now beaten Iowa State 15 straight times. OU's offense, which has had its rough moments yet is still ranked 33rd in the nation, might have some fun against Iowa State's #101 defense.
  
  I have to take Oklahoma.
• #21 East Carolina at Temple, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNews: It's been 19 years since these teams faced each other — so it is practically like a new series. Certainly, it will be for the participants.
  
  East Carolina has the fourth–best offense in the nation. Temple's offense is 108th. Temple has the edge in defense, but I don't think it will be enough to overcome QB Shane Carden and receivers Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones.
  
  I'll go with East Carolina.
• #24 Duke at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Duke has beaten Pittsburgh four straight times. Don't get carried away, though. Until the game they played last year, they hadn't faced each other since 1976.
  
  The marquee unit in this game, believe it or not, is Pitt's defense, ranked 17th in the nation.
  
  This is an important game for Pittsburgh. Duke, too, for that matter. The Panthers could be in a position to determine their own destiny with a win — and the Blue Devils could put some distance between themselves and the other teams in the ACC's Coastal Division by beating the Panthers.
  
  I don't think they will. I think Pittsburgh will win this game.

Last week: 16–2

Season: 132–27

Playoff Picks Get Scrambled Midway Through Season

We're about midway through the regular season, and things are really getting interesting.

College football observers have been scrambling in recent weeks to allow for upsets that seem to have altered their Final Four picks for January's first–ever Division I playoff.

If the season ended today, many people think Mississippi State and Ole Miss will be in the playoff, but Ole Miss faces LSU this weekend, and Mississippi State has a showdown with Alabama coming up next month. After that, Mississippi State and Ole Miss will wrap up the regular season with their traditional Thanksgiving Egg Bowl.

Idle: #2 Florida State, #7 Notre Dame, #9 Georgia, #12 Baylor, #17 Oklahoma

Thursday

• Connecticut at #18 East Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These schools have never met on the gridiron before.
  
  There was a time, not so long ago, when UConn's football team played in bowl games — even won a couple. But UConn is 1–5 so far this season, and the Huskies seldom have meaningful road wins.
  
  I'll take East Carolina.

Friday

• #6 Oregon at California, 9 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Oregon comes into this game with a five–game winning streak against Cal.
  
  Both teams have Top 20 offenses and mediocre defenses (well, I guess mediocre is being kind).
  
  In their last three meetings, Oregon has been victorious by at least four touchdowns each time. I see no reason to expect anything less this time. Oregon will win.

Saturday

• #1 Mississippi State at Kentucky, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: The reasons to pick the #1 team in the nation.
  
  The Bulldogs have the #10 offense facing Kentucky's 40th–ranked defense. That should be interesting although I really think Mississippi State will win that battle.
  
  Things might get a little sloppy when Kentucky has the ball. The Wildcats are ranked 61st in offense, but the Bulldogs are 88th in defense.
  
  Mississippi State has won six of the last seven meetings with Kentucky. I think Mississippi State will win this one, too.
• #3 Ole Miss at #24 LSU, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is one of the most interesting games of the week, as far as I am concerned.
  
  If the Rebels are seeking validation, there may be no better way to get it than winning in Baton Rouge. I don't think Ole Miss will be intimidated. The Rebels have lost the last two times they visited Baton Rouge, but they were within a touchdown both times.
  
  The numbers favor Ole Miss. The Rebels have the eighth–best defense in the nation going up against LSU's #62 offense. The Rebels are only ranked 49th on offense and may find the going tought against LSU's #14 defense.
  
  It's shaping up to be a low–scoring game. I'll take Ole Miss by a field goal.
• #4 Alabama at Tennessee, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Alabama brings the nation's third–best defense to Knoxville — along with a seven–game winning streak.
  
  The Crimson Tide seemed to find its groove in its win over Texas A&M last week. Tennessee is improving, but I just can't see the Vols beating Alabama.
  
  I have to take Alabama in this one.
• South Carolina at #5 Auburn, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: South Carolina has beaten Auburn once — in 1933. That game was played in Birmingham and was counted as a home game for the Tigers.
  
  Auburn has beaten South Carolina three straight times at home since then and seems likely to win again. The Tigers' #21 offense should have little trouble with South Carolina's #80 defense. And Auburn's #26 defense should win more than it loses against the Gamecocks' #40 offense.
  
  I'll take Auburn.
• Michigan at #8 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It really doesn't seem possible that this year's Michigan team has any chance of beating Michigan State. At all.
  
  The Spartans have won five of their last six against the Wolverines, and they have won the last three in a row at home.
  
  Statistically, both defenses are in the Top 10, but any Michigan observer could tell you the problem hasn't been the defense. It's been the offense, which is one of the worst in college football. (The Spartans are 12th.)
  
  I'll pick Michigan State.
• Texas Tech at #10 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams are old Southwest Conference foes, and it was during that time that Tech rolled up most of its wins in the series, but the Red Raiders are still 3–1 against the Horned Frogs since the SWC disbanded in the '90s.
  
  The last time these teams played in Fort Worth, Tech won a wild one, 56–53. Anyone who watched TCU's game with Baylor a couple of weeks ago knows better than to shrug off the suggestion that such a thing could happen again. Both teams are in the Top 20 in offense, and neither defense seems capable of stopping the other team's offense.
  
  I'll take TCU.
• Texas at #11 Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Wildcats had beaten the Longhorns five straight times before Texas ended the skid in Austin last year.
  
  K–State has won three straight at home against UT, and I'm inclined to think the Wildcats will win again. KSU has a huge edge in offensive rankings. The Wildcats are #48 in the nation. The Longhorns are #96.
  
  However ...
  
  The Longhorns are ranked higher in defense (#34 to #39).
  
  I think it might be close at halftime, but the Wildcats will pull away in the second half. I will go with Kansas State.
• #13 Ohio State at Penn State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: How great would it have been to see these teams play when Woody Hayes was on the Ohio State sideline and Joe Paterno was on the Penn State sideline? It didn't happen often. They only met three times, and Hayes won the first two meetings.
  
  That is kind of a microcosm of the all–time series. Ohio State hasn't won two–thirds of the time, but the Buckeyes do hold a 16–12 advantage over the Nittany Lions.
  
  Ohio State has the ninth–ranked offense, but it will have to contend with Penn State's sixth–ranked defense. That should be very entertaining, more entertaining than when Penn State has the ball. The Nittany Lions are 89th in offense; the Buckeyes are #15 in defense.
  
  I'll take Ohio State to win its fourth straight in Happy Valley.
• #14 Arizona State at Washington, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Arizona State has won eight in a row against Washington, seizing the lead in the series. The Sun Devils haven't lost in Seattle since 1997.
  
  Arizona State has the #13 offense in the country, and that isn't even the best in the Pac–12. Three conference foes — including un–state rival Arizona — are ranked ahead of the Sun Devils. But they should be all right against Washington.
  
  I pick Arizona State.
• #15 Arizona at Washington State, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Arizona had won five straight against the Cougars before losing last year's game in Tucson, 24–17. The Wildcats have won three in a row in Pullman, and they lead the all–time series, 25–14.
  
  The game features a couple of Top 10 offenses.Arizona was undefeated until dropping a two–point decision to Southern Cal two weeks ago — just one week after Arizona stunned Oregon, 31–24.
  
  The Wildcats had last week off to shake off the loss. Can they revive the momentum from the Oregon win?
  
  Washington State is 2–5, but the Cougars have lost some close ones — three of those losses were by a touchdown or less. They're a gritty bunch.
  
  Nevertheless, I'll pick Arizona.
• Rutgers at #16 Nebraska, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Believe it or not, Rutgers won its only previous meeting with Nebraska.
  
  Of course, that game was played nearly 95 years ago. Rutgers won, 20–0.
  
  This year's game appears to be no contest. This time, though, Rutgers isn't likely to shut out the Cornhuskers. Nebraska's offense is ranked 14th; Rutgers' defense is ranked 82nd.
  
  It isn't necessarily a sure thing that Rutgers will score. Nebraska's #28 defense is likely to challenge Rutgers's #63 offense.
  
  I'll take Nebraska.
• #20 Southern Cal at #19 Utah, 9 p.m. (Central) on FS1: These teams have played each other eight times, and Utah actually did win one once — but the Utes have never won on either campus. That is because Utah's sole victory came in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl.
  
  As the rankings suggest, this should be an entertaining game. USC is 5–2. Utah is 5–1.
  
  In a conference that prizes great offenses, Southern Cal has a decisive advantage. USC is ranked 30th nationally while Utah is ranked 73rd.
  
  Utah has the edge on defense, but, in true Pac–12 fashion, neither team has been very impressive on the defensive side of the ball. The Utes are ranked 56th, the Trojans are ranked 68th.
  
  I'll take Southern Cal, but I wouldn't be surprised if Utah won.
• Syracuse at #21 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is Syracuse's first visit to Clemson.
  
  I get the feeling this game will be dominated by defense. Well, Syracuse (3–4) certainly should be. Syracuse's 70th–ranked offense should be unable to deal with Clemson's sixth–ranked defense. It should be a more even match when Clemson has the ball. Clemson's offense is ranked 45th, Syracuse's defense is ranked 43rd.
  
  I pick Clemson.
• #22 West Virginia at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: West Virginia is coming off an emotional win over Baylor while OSU is coming off a blowout loss to TCU.
  
  West Virginia brings the #6 offense to Stillwater. On paper, it would seem to be a mismatch with Oklahoma State's #78 defense.
  
  In recent years, Oklahoma State was practically unbeatable at home. Maybe so. In that case, I'm taking TCU as my upset special.
• Florida Atlantic at #23 Marshall, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: With Baylor idle, Marshall's offense is the top–ranked offensive unit in action, averaging nearly 575 yards per game.
  
  Florida Atlantic's defense is yielding nearly 466 yards per game. 'Nuff said. I take Marshall.
• #25 UCLA at Colorado, 1 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These teams have been conference rivals for three years, and UCLA is 3–0 in that time. Colorado did win two in a row against UCLA in 2002 and 2003, but they weren't in the same conference at the time.
  
  Colorado is 2–5 coming into this game and ranked behind UCLA in both offense and defense. I see no reason to pick anyone other than UCLA.

Last week: 11–5

Season: 116–25

The 'Pretty Big' One

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Does it seem strange to be writing about the anniversary of perhaps the most notorious earthquake to strike the North American continent in the last 50 years — on a sports blog?

Well, I guess it is — but that is how I remember that event.

It was a Tuesday night, just after 7 p.m. in north Texas. I was enrolled in graduate school, and those classes almost always met at night, but I didn't have a class that night. My brother was at my apartment, and we were settling in to watch Game 3 of the World Series between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland A's.

Because the teams were in twin cities — separated only by the bay and linked by the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge — it was dubbed a "subway series." To accommodate viewers in the large Eastern media markets, the World Series games were scheduled to start around 5:30 p.m. California time; apparently, in the Bay Area, many people either left work early (to attend the games or attend watch parties) or stayed late for office watch parties. Consequently, the result was that the typical rush hour was not nearly as heavy as it would have under typical circumstances.

That meant that fewer people were on the bridge when the earthquake struck at 5:04 local time. If it had been a normal day, we were told later, the casualties would have been virtually incomprehensible.

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What could be seen on the TV screen was bad enough.

And I became very concerned about the safety of my friends, Mike and Jane, who had been living there for about a year or so. I tried to call them whenever I could, but I kept getting the same recorded message that my call could not be completed.

Finally, three days later, I got a call from Jane. It was the first opportunity she had had to contact friends and family to let them know she and Mike were all right.

She told me that she typically commuted across that bridge — and, on an ordinary day, she would have been right in the middle of the bridge when the earthquake struck. Because of the World Series, though, she told me she had already been off the bridge for five or 10 minutes when the earthquake happened.

I was really glad I didn't know her usual routine at the time of the earthquake. I would have been worried sick.

Mike, as it turned out, was home when the earthquake hit. They were living in a solid house — it survived the infamous 1906 earthquake with its 7.9 magnitude so the 7.1–magnitude "Lomo Prieta earthquake" (so named for the location of its epicenter) was no match for it. Mike said all that really happened was a few pictures were shaken from the wall.

Initially, there were reports that casualties numbered in the hundreds — but it turned out that only 63 people died. That is still 63 too many, but it was better than originally feared.

Action in the World Series was suspended for 10 days while the Bay Area cleaned up and started trying to return to normal. I was two time zones away, but I followed developments via TV. It was inspiring to see so many members of both baseball teams helping out in any way they could, shoulder to shoulder with many of their fans.

Of course, there are always those who look for ways to make money off other people's misfortune, and Mike and Jane told me that some enterprising folks printed up T–shirts that read, "I Survived the Pretty Big One."

I wouldn't have wanted to buy one of them and contribute to the guy who printed them — but I would have liked to have seen one. I've searched the internet, too, by the way, but I haven't found a photo of one yet.

Maybe it wasn't as much of a thriving cottage industry as Mike and Jane thought it was. Maybe their impression was fueled by seeing those shirts from time to time — and mistaking that for all the time. I don't know.

I just know I was glad to know my friends hadn't been hurt.

The State of Mississippi Takes the Lead in College Football

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Midway through the college football season, and the state of Mississippi is at the center of the college football universe. Did anyone see that coming? I sure didn't.

Well, not entirely. I mean, I knew Ole Miss would be good, maybe even a Top 10 team, but I did not anticipate Mississippi State. Few, if any people, did. Besides, the SEC West was already packed with powerhouses — Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M. I figured that, even if Ole Miss was in the Top 10, two or maybe three other SEC West teams would be ranked ahead of them. After all, it hasn't been unusual for the SEC to have four or five teams in the Top 10

The most remarkable game played so far this season — and perhaps in my lifetime — was Baylor's "mind–numbing" come–from–behind victory over TCU in Waco last weekend. It truly was an epic game, exceeding by 21 points the highest single–game point total in a TCU–Baylor game (which was established three years ago, also in Waco). And they've been playing each other since 1903.

The Mississippi schools are both 6–0. Ole Miss has beaten Alabama and Texas A&M. Mississippi State has beaten LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn in a row. Anything can still happen, of course, but, right now, it is looking like the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl — the annual grudge match between Ole Miss and Mississippi State, slated for Oxford this year — will determine who represents the SEC West in the SEC championship game this year.

The now–top–ranked Bulldogs have this weekend off to savor their new status. Unless something really unexpected happens, the Bulldogs shouldn't be seriously challenged until Nov. 15, when they travel to Alabama.

Idle: #1 Mississippi State, #6 Auburn, #16 Arizona, #18 East Carolina

Thursday

• #20 Utah at Oregon State, 9 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Both defenses are ranked higher than the offenses, which makes this something of an anomaly in the Pac–12, where the emphasis is on offense.
  
  The Utes may be the ranked team, but the Beavers hold the head–to–head series advantage, an edge that has been built on Oregon State's dominance in Oregon, 7–2–1. In fact, Utah hasn't beaten Oregon State in the state of Oregon since 1991.
  
  I think Utah will end the drought.

Saturday

• #5 Notre Dame at #2 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Florida State leads the series, but Notre Dame won the last time the game was played in Tallahassee.
  
  Since the new #1 team, Mississippi State, is idle this week, I suppose this is the marquee game — although I am sure you would get an argument from fans of Texas A&M and Alabama or Kansas State and Oklahoma or Oklahoma State and TCU or Stanford and Arizona State.
  
  Daniel Uthman of USA Today wonders if this game will bring the first college football playoff field into focus. I kind of think it will.
  
  There have been a lot of questions about whether defending Heisman winner Jameis Winston, now accused of sexual assault, will play, but the Irish expect him to be in the lineup. Speaking of Winston, apparently he hails from the same town as former Heisman winner Bo Jackson, and Bo apparently has been trying to counsel Winston, but Jackson seems to be fed up with Winston, claiming that his advice has been ignored. "You're on your own," he said.
  
  Statistically, I think it's a draw at quarterback if Winston plays. He has played one less game than Notre Dame's Everett Golson so that needs to be considered, but consider this also: Winston has a better completion percentage but he has thrown more interceptions and Golson has half again as many TD tosses.
  
  Even if Winston does not play, it is likely to be an aerial affair since neither team has what could be called a major running attack.
  
  With all the distractions for FSU lately, I'll pick Notre Dame to win.
• Tennessee at #3 Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Tennessee has only lost one of its last 14 games with Ole Miss — but that loss came the last time they met in Jackson.
  
  Tennessee boasts the nation's 16th–best defense and is sure to challenge Ole Miss (#45 in offense). It will have to. The Vols have one of the worst offenses in the land, and Ole Miss is #13 in defense. The Jackson (Miss.) Clarion Ledger says Ole Miss has a "landshark" defense that will overwhelm Tennessee.
  
  The numbers and the home field favor Ole Miss.
• #4 Baylor at West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: After last week's game with TCU, it should be no surprise that Baylor is now the top–ranked offense in the nation.
  
  What may come as a surprise to you is that West Virginia's offense — led by the nation's best receiver, Kevin White, his QB, Clint Trickett, and running back Rushel Shell — is ranked eighth.
  
  How do they stack up on defense? Well, in spite of last week's high–scoring battle with TCU, Baylor is ranked 10th in the nation in defense. West Virginia, meanwhile, is 67th.
  
  The first two conference meetings between these schools were wild. West Virginia won in 2012, 70–63, and Baylor won last year, 73–42. If a trend was established, it was that the winner scores 70 points. I think the Bears are more likely to cross that threshold. I'll take Baylor.
• #21 Texas A&M at #7 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Despite their struggles lately, the Aggies have the fourth–best offense in the nation. Alabama's offense is pretty good, too (#18).
  
  But the eye–popping match will be when the Aggies have the ball — and must face the third–ranked defense in the country. One gets the sense that the game will be decided by that matchup since the beleaguered A&M defense (#71 in the land) figures to have plenty of problems.
  
  This series had been dormant for a quarter of a century until the Aggies joined the SEC a few years ago. It was never very active before — the teams met in a couple of Cotton Bowls, then met in a couple of nonconference games in the 1980s.
  
  Alabama lost its first meeting with A&M in Tuscaloosa a couple of years ago and needs to win this game to remain in the conversation for the SEC West title. I'll go with Alabama at home.
• #8 Michigan State at Indiana, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have been meeting since 1927 (as conference rivals since 1953), and the Spartans enjoy a lopsided lead, winning about 76% of the time. But it's been more difficult for them in Indiana, where their winning percentage is around 70%.
  
  Going into this year's edition of the Old Brass Spittoon, both teams boast Top 20 offenses — Michigan State is #17, Indiana is #19 — so I think the issue will be decided by the best defensive performance. That suggests that the Spartans, currently #12 nationally in defense, are better positioned than Indiana's 79th–ranked defense.
  
  Indiana's will be led by the Hoosiers' third–string quarterback, a thoroughly untested freshman.
  
  I'll take Michigan State.
• Washington at #9 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on FS1: This game was first played during World War I, and Washington leads the all–time series, but Oregon enters the game with a 10–game winning streak against the Huskies.
  
  The Pac–12 is known for offense, not defense, and I think it is safe to say that this will not be a defensive struggle. Washington's defense is ranked 66th, and Oregon's isn't even in the Top 100.
  
  Offense, though, is another matter, at least for the Ducks. Oregon's offense is always good; so far, it ranks 13th in the land. With the nation's top–rated passer (Marcus Mariota), Oregon can be very entertaining to watch.
  
  Defense is the best part of this Washington team. The offense is ranked #95.
  
  I'll take Oregon.
• #10 Georgia at Arkansas, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Georgia has won nine of its last 11 encounters with Arkansas, but the Bulldogs are unbeaten in Arkansas.
  
  However, I don't think Georgia has ever played Arkansas in Little Rock, which is where this game is being played. Will that matter? Probably not, although I have been pleased with the effort the Razorbacks have given. They could easily be 2–1 in the SEC instead of 0–3. The SEC West is just so much deeper than it ever has been since the conference split into divisions.
  
  I wish Arkansas would win, but I have to pick Georgia.
• #14 Kansas State at #11 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: One of the things that excited me when I was hired to teach journalism at OU was the idea of being at a football school. I love football, and, after all, who has a greater reputation for football? Unfortunately, OU's football team was one of its worst during the four years I was there.
  
  A good example of that is the series with Kansas State, a Big Eight conference rival (and, therefore, an annual opponent until the Big 12 put them in different divisions). OU has dominated its series with the Wildcats and hadn't lost three in a row to KSU since the 1920s — until Kansas State beat OU three straight times while I was on the Oklahoma faculty.
  
  Bob Stoops has turned things back in OU's favor. He has won nine of 11 meetings with K–State, but he lost the last time the Wildcats came to Norman (the other time was in the 2003 Big 12 Championship).
  
  I expect Oklahoma to win this time.
• #15 Oklahoma State at #12 TCU, 3 p.m. (Central) on FS1: It is probably safe to say this is the biggest game in this series' history. The Cowboys have enjoyed the advantage in Stillwater, but the series is tied up in Fort Worth. In fact, the closest that the Cowboys have come to winning in Fort Worth since 1947 were ties in 1949 and 1971.
  
  The defenses are virtually the same (Oklahoma State is ranked #55, TCU is ranked #57) so it seems likely to come down to which offense is able to execute better. That would seem to favor TCU. The Frogs' offense is ranked 15th while Oklahoma State's is 60th — but I tend to think that TCU's numbers on both sides of the ball are skewed by the 61–58 loss to Baylor last week.
  
  I was impressed by what TCU was able to do in Waco last week. The Frogs showed that their win over Oklahoma was no fluke, but I have to wonder if they can bounce back after two consecutive emotionally charged games like that. I'll take Oklahoma State.
• Rutgers at #13 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is the first time these schools have met, but as conference rivals it will become a regular thing.
  
  Ohio State has the #12 offense and should have little trouble with Rutgers' #70 defense. Likewise, Ohio State's defense (#14) should have no trouble stopping Rutgers' offense (#55).
  
  On top of that, the Buckeyes are at home. Give me Ohio State.
• #23 Stanford at #17 Arizona State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford has the second–best defense in the country. I know that defense isn't terribly important in the Pac–12, but I still believe it wins championships — and Stanford's defense is ranked second in the nation. It should be interesting when Arizona State's seventh–ranked offense takes the field.
  
  Stanford has beaten Arizona State four straight times, including last year's Pac–12 championship game, but the Sun Devils have had the upper hand at home. Stanford did win the last time the teams played there, but that snapped a four–game ASU home winning streak.
  
  I'm going to pick Stanford.
• #19 Nebraska at Northwestern, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The Cornhuskers have the 10th–ranked offense in the country. Against Northwestern's #44 defense, it might look like old times when Nebraska's total offense exceeded 400 yards.
  
  Nebraska leads the series, 5–2, and has only lost to Northwestern once since Herbert Hoover was president. That was also the last time Nebraska lost at Northwestern. I don't expect that to happen this time. I expect Nebraska to win.
• Colorado at #22 Southern Cal, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: The Trojans have won all eight of their previous meetings with Colorado, and I'm inclined to think USC will win again. Let's examine it a little more closely, though.
  
  Offense is what matters in the Pac–12, and Colorado is actually ranked ahead of Southern Cal in total offense (#29 to #36), but Southern Cal, behind running back Javorius Allen, has a superior rushing attack, and QB Cody Kessler is completing nearly 70% of his passes.
  
  Even though defense is not as important in the Pac–12 as it is in other conferences, Southern Cal's, while average, is much better than Colorado's.
  
  I pick Southern Cal.
• #24 Clemson at Boston College, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Clemson is tied with Wisconsin for sixth in the country in defense. Pretty good, right? Boston College is just as good, though — ranked eighth.
  
  Clemson also has a narrow edge on offense (ranked #38 to Boston College's #44), but both advantages could be negated by Boston College's home field.
  
  Clemson has seized the lead in this series by winning five of the last six meetings. This game might be a lot closer than people expect, but I'll take Clemson.
• #25 Marshall at Florida International, 5 p.m. (Central) on American Sports Network: Marshall has the nation's second–ranked offense.
  
  These teams have only met twice, the first time in the 2011 Beef O'Brady's Bowl in St. Petersburg, Fla., followed by last year's meeting in the Miami area. Marshall won both.
  
  Florida International comes into the game 3–5. Marshall is unbeaten. I'll go with Marshall.

Last week: 12–3

Season: 105–20

An Earthquake in College Football

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Even before the first kickoff of last weekend, everyone knew there would be some losses in the Top 25. After all, there were more head–to–head matches between ranked teams than there have been in any other week so far — and, since the NCAA introduced overtime to Division I college football games and eliminated the possibility of a game ending in a tie, college football fans have known that someone would win and someone would lose in every game. No more "kissing your sister."

We knew there would be some movement in the rankings; no one was expecting a seismic shift. But it wasn't just ranked teams beating up on each other last week.

In fact, last weekend started with unranked Arizona's stunning win over #2 Oregon on Thursday night, followed by unranked Utah State's equally perplexing win over #18 Brigham Young on Friday night.

The trend continued into Saturday — unranked Utah shocked #8 UCLA, unranked Arizona State upset #16 Southern Cal and unranked Northwestern turned back #17 Wisconsin.

And, of course, there were the ranked teams that lost to other ranked teams — #9 Notre Dame edged #14 Stanford, #5 Auburn took down #15 LSU and #10 Michigan State got by #19 Nebraska, in outcomes that probably ended as most expected, at least based on the rankings.

Fourth–ranked Oklahoma's loss to #25 TCU really surprised me.

But then there were the victories of two teams from the same state whose traditional end–of–season clash could have unexpectedly high stakes this year. Ole Miss, ranked 11th, beat third–ranked Alabama, and #12 Mississippi State shocked everyone with a 17–point win over #6 Texas A&M.

Many games will be played before Ole Miss and Mississippi State square off, and anything could happen between now and then, but right now they both look like teams that could go the distance — and meet on Nov. 29 with the SEC West crown on the line.

By my count, nine ranked teams tumbled last week. To add to the somewhat surreal atmosphere, things happened that I would never have thought possible when I was a boy — like Baylor beating Texas.

I know that Baylor is ranked and Texas is not. But I still have trouble thinking of Baylor as a powerhouse. Why, beating Baylor was virtually routine when I was growing up. I grew up in Southwest Conference territory, and I am amazed that teams like Baylor and TCU are ranked and beating teams like Oklahoma and Texas.

It's "Through the Looking Glass" stuff, for sure.

More drama may be in store this weekend. In addition to the traditional OU–Texas rivalry, which retains its magic even though Texas is unranked, we have #2 Auburn vs. #3 Mississippi State, #4 Ole Miss vs. #14 Texas A&M, #12 Oregon vs. #18 UCLA and #13 Georgia vs. #23 Missouri.

Plus a whole bunch of games between ranked and unranked teams. Anything could happen. Brace yourself.

Idle: #15 Ohio State, #17 Kansas State, #20 Arizona State, #21 Nebraska, #24 Utah

Friday

• Washington State at #25 Stanford, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford owns a six–game winning streak against Washington State.
  
  Even though offense, not defense, is king in the Pac–12, Stanford has the nation's second–best defense — which is sure to be tested by Washington State's sixth–ranked offense. Stanford's offense (#93 in the nation) has been unimpressive — but it might have a chance against Washington State's 90th–ranked defense.
  
  I take Stanford.

Saturday

• #1 Florida State at Syracuse, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Syracuse won the first game these teams played against each other — back in 1966. Florida State has won the six that have been played since.
  
  Well, Syracuse is 2–3 and has lost three straight. I'll take Florida State.
• #2 Auburn at #3 Mississippi State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is bound to be the biggest football game ever played in Starkville.
  
  Based on the rankings, this should be the game of the week. The winner may be in a position to play in the first–ever Division I playoffs in January — although Ole Miss might have something to say about that.
  
  Historically, Auburn leads Mississippi State whether the game has been at home or on the road. In both places, Auburn's winning percentage is around 67%. But Mississippi State won the last time the game was played in Starkville, and the Bulldogs were only 8–5 that year (Auburn was only 3–9).
  
  Both are in the Top 25 in offense. In fact, Mississippi State is ranked higher than Auburn. But defense is king in the SEC, and that is where Auburn has a clear advantage. The Tigers are #14 in the nation. The Bulldogs are #84.
  
  Even though the Bulldogs are ranked third in the nation, they still have some things to prove. They can prove they are for real with a win over #2 Auburn, then the only real hurdle before the traditional season–ender against in–state rival Ole Miss will be the game with Alabama in mid–November.
  
  But I expect Auburn to prevail in this one.
• #4 Ole Miss at #14 Texas A&M, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: If Ole Miss is going to improve on its 5–0 start, it will have to do something it has never done before: Beat Texas A&M.
  
  The way the Aggies have been playing lately, that isn't entirely inconceivable.
  
  Ole Miss has the fifth–best defense in the nation whereas the Aggies, ranked 75th, have struggled — but that ought to make for a first–rate battle when the Aggies' third–ranked offense has the ball.
  
  I think the Rebels' 37th–ranked offense will be the difference. I pick Ole Miss.
• #9 TCU at #5 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC, ESPN2 or ESPNU: When I was growing up, these two programs were doormats in the Southwest Conference. Today, they are both in the Top 10 nationally in defense.
  
  Only Marshall's offense is ranked higher than Baylor's, but TCU's offense isn't exactly chopped liver (#16 nationally). Baylor's pretty good on defense, too (#4 in the nation); unfortunately for the Bears, so is TCU (#7).
  
  This really ought to be a good game. It is also the 102nd meeting between the schools. TCU holds the advantage, 50–46–5, and has been more successful in Waco than at home, although the Frogs lead the series in both places.
  
  I'll take the home team — Baylor.
• North Carolina at #6 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: North Carolina has only beaten Notre Dame twice in 18 meetings — but one of those wins came last year in Chapel Hill — where the Tar Heels' other triumph over the Irish occurred (in 1960). North Carolina is 0–11 in South Bend.
  
  Statistically, Notre Dame has the better offense — which isn't really saying a lot. Both teams have been mediocre on offense. Notre Dame has the #21 defense in the nation — and the Irish offense might look pretty good against North Carolina's defense, which is one of the worst in the country. I pick Notre Dame.
• #7 Alabama at Arkansas, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Alabama has won its last seven meetings with Arkansas. The Crimson Tide tends to win, no matter where the game is played, but Arkansas tends to fare a little better at home — which is hardly a surprise. I mean, isn't it that way for everyone against Alabama?
  
  Alabama suffered a crushing loss to Ole Miss last week but still comes to Fayetteville with the third–ranked defense. The Tide has beaten the Hogs by identical 52–0 scores in the last two seasons. I expect Arkansas to score this time, but I also expect Alabama to win.
• #8 Michigan State at Purdue, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This series has been more competitive than you might think — and, as a matter of fact, Purdue holds the historical edge when the game is played in Indiana.
  
  Michigan State, though, has won the last five meetings, which have included two games in West Lafayette. Purdue limps into the game at 3–3. I pick Michigan State.
• Southern Cal at #10 Arizona, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Southern Cal has dominated this series — and has won 10 of the 13 games played between the schools since the dawn of this century.
  
  QB Anu Solomon, with running back Nick Wilson and wideout Nelson Agholor, leads Arizona's seventh–ranked offense; QB Cody Kessler, along with runner Javorius Allen and receiver Cayleb Jones, leads Southern Cal's 40th–ranked offense.
  
  This has the potential to be close. I will take Arizona.
• Texas vs. #11 Oklahoma in Dallas, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: When I was growing up, this game positively dwarfed anything else that was being played that day.
  
  Today, it is easily fifth or sixth on a college football fan's priority list. In fact, many fans may be flipping between this one and the Georgia–Missouri game.
  
  Texas' new coach, Charlie Strong, is on the hot seat. He is 2–3 and must face an Oklahoma team that lost to TCU last week and dropped in the rankings. It's safe to say the Sooners will be surly. If Texas wins, Strong will feel less pressure. If he loses, it may be the last straw for disgruntled UT boosters.
  
  I pick Oklahoma.
• #12 Oregon at #18 UCLA, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Oregon has beaten UCLA in 10 of their last 12 games, including the 2011 Pac–12 championship game.
  
  Oregon still has a great offense (#11), but it doesn't seem to inspire as much fear as it once did. UCLA's offense is pretty good (#36), although I suspect the Bruins owe most of their ranking to their 62–point game against Arizona State a couple of weeks ago.
  
  Both teams are coming off shocking losses. Historically, UCLA hasn't lost consecutive home games since 2009 — but one of those losses was to Oregon.
  
  I pick Oregon.
• #13 Georgia at #23 Missouri, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: These schools have only met twice in the modern era, and the home team has lost both.
  
  That would suggest that Georgia will win the game, and that is something I would have predicted, too — except the Bulldogs will be without running back Todd Gurley, who has been indefinitely suspended. With him in the lineup, the Bulldogs' offense is #38 in the nation. Without him, Georgia's offense should be easier for Missouri's 60th–ranked defense to contain.
  
  That will be important because the Georgia defense appears fully capable of shutting down the Missouri offense.
  
  I'm going to take Missouri — but I think it will be close.
• #16 Oklahoma State at Kansas, 3 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Oklahoma State has won nine of its last 10 meetings with Kansas and hasn't lost in Manhattan since October 1994.
  
  Oklahoma State doesn't seem to be as explosive as last year, when they scored at least 42 points in six games (in four of those games, they broke 50 points), but the Cowboys don't have to be too explosive to win against the Jayhawks.
  
  Oklahoma State buried Kansas last year, 42–6. It probably won't be that lopsided this time, but I pick Oklahoma State to win again.
• #19 East Carolina at South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have met four times, and South Florida has won them all — but I think that streak is coming to an end.
  
  East Carolina comes to town with the fourth–ranked offense, which should be quite a challenge for South Florida's 67th–ranked defense. East Carolina has an average defense, but it should have no trouble with South Florida, which has one of the worst offenses in college football.
  
  I pick East Carolina to break into the win column in this series.
• Duke at #22 Georgia Tech, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network: Duke–Georgia Tech probably sounds like it ought to be a primetime basketball clash — and, at times, it has been.
  
  This year, though, it earns attention on the gridiron. Even though Duke had an unexpectedly good football season last year, Tech has beaten Duke in 18 of their last 19 meetings. Duke hasn't won at Georgia Tech in 20 years.
  
  If you judged by the record, you would think it was a meeting of powerhouses — Duke is 4–1 and Georgia Tech is unbeaten — but they have built those records on teams like Wofford and Elon. Both have played (and beaten) Tulane, and both have played Miami of Florida. In fact, that is the difference in their records. The Yellow Jackets beat the 'Canes, the Blue Devils did not.
  
  Statistically, Duke is ranked ahead of Georgia Tech in both offense and defense, but from what I have read, Duke simply is not the same team that went 10–4 last year and narrowly lost to Texas A&M in the Chick–Fil–A Bowl. The Yellow Jackets, meanwhile, seem to be on an upward trajectory after wandering in the wilderness the last few years.
  
  I'll take Georgia Tech.

Last week: 10–6

Season: 93–17

Intriguing Showdowns on This Week's Schedule

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(Note: We had heavy storms in the area Thursday, causing widespread power outages. Consequently, the college football column I had planned to post prior to the Arizona–Oregon game that night could not be posted. Power has been restored, and I am publishing that column today, minus the Arizona–Oregon prediction and the prediction for the Utah State–Brigham Young game last night, which began while I was busy working with the Richland College newspaper staff.)

We're getting into the conference portion of the college football schedule.

Most of this week's games are between conference rivals. In the SEC, that frequently means games between ranked teams, and there are three of those this week — #3 Alabama against #11 Ole Miss, #15 LSU at #5 Auburn and #6 Texas A&M travels to #12 Mississippi State.

In all, there are half a dozen games between ranked teams this week, and all six have the potential to be exciting games.

Idle: #24 Missouri

Saturday

• Wake Forest at #1 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: The series is lopsided in Florida State's favor, but Wake Forest actually has enjoyed more success against the Seminoles in recent years than in the first 50 years of the series' existence.
  
  I don't think Wake Forest will win, but the Deacons do have a much higher ranked defense. That could be put to the test. Defending Heisman winner Jameis Winston is ranked 19th in passing in spite of having to sit out a game. No matter who the QB has been, Rashad Greene has been catching the passes. He is fourth in the nation in receiving yards.
  
  Unfortunately, Wake Forest has one of the worst offenses in the nation. Even Florida State's #77 defense should be able to stop Wake Forest. I pick Florida State.
• #3 Alabama at #11 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is a great old rivalry, but it is one Ole Miss seldom wins. Alabama has won 10 in a row. In fact, although this will be their 58th meeting, Ole Miss has won only seven times. It is the most lopsided series in the SEC.
  
  The Rebels have lost the last four played on Mississippi soil — but their last win over Alabama came on their home field in 2003. I guess it is possible that they can win this one; after all, their in–state rival, Mississippi State, beat LSU a couple of weeks ago.
  
  But I just don't see it happening. Should be an entertaining game to watch, but, in the end, I expect Alabama to prevail.
• #4 Oklahoma at #25 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: After an extended absence, TCU is back in the Top 25 (barely). The Frogs' reward? Facing Oklahoma.
  
  The series predates TCU's joining the Big 12, but no matter when they have played, the Frogs have never won a home game against the Sooners (OU is 5–0 in Fort Worth).
  
  TCU is ranked higher than OU in both offense and defense; in fact, the Frogs are #2 nationally in defense. But what does that really mean when you have only faced Samford, Minnesota and SMU? I pick Oklahoma.
• #15 LSU at #5 Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Any hope that LSU has of winning the SEC — and possibly playing for a national championship — will be on the line tonight at Auburn.
  
  If this game was being played in Baton Rouge, I'd probably pick LSU. In spite of the Tigers' loss there to Mississippi State a couple of weeks ago, it's still one of the toughest places for a visitor to play. And, historically, LSU beats Auburn in Baton Rouge nearly 79% of the time.
  
  But Auburn owns the advantage at home, although the margins of victory there for either team have been small.
  
  This might be the game of the week, and I pick Auburn to win it.
• #6 Texas A&M at #12 Mississippi State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is an interesting early SEC West clash. Mississippi State made believers of some with their win in Baton Rouge, and the schedule then gave the previously unranked Bulldogs the week off to savor that victory. But now, as a ranked team, they face the challenge of A&M this week and Auburn next week.
  
  This is when they can prove they belong at this level.
  
  The Aggies beat my alma mater, Arkansas, in overtime last week, a game even Aggies conceded they should have lost. I don't know what that means for this Aggie team. They played very well in the season opener against highly touted South Carolina. This is a chance for them to prove something, too.
  
  I pick Texas A&M.
• #7 Baylor at Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When I was growing up, the idea that Baylor might beat Texas was laughable. It almost never happened, especially in Austin.
  
  But Baylor has won three of its last four meetings with Texas and is likely to do so again today. The Bears have the top–ranked offense (behind QB Bryce Petty and receiver K.D. Cannon) and the sixth–ranked defense. This isn't your father's Bears team. I take Baylor.
• Utah at #8 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically in this series, outcomes tend to be lopsided, but the last couple of meetings have been close. Perhaps this one will be, too.
  
  Some more historical trivia in this series. UCLA is 6–0 at home.
  
  The Bruins also have a better offense, which is what matters in the Pac–12. Utah has the better defense, which doesn't matter nearly as much in the Pac–12. I take UCLA.
• #14 Stanford at #9 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This series dates back to the Knute Rockne era, to Notre Dame's first bowl appearance (the Rose Bowl) on New Year's Day 1925.
  
  This will be the 29th time they have met, and the Irish tend to win about 65% of the time. They're even better at home; they beat Stanford nearly 79% of the time in South Bend. In fact, Notre Dame has won 80% of its last 10 home games against Stanford so that historical trend has been confirmed in recent times.
  
  The story of this game might just be defense. Notre Dame is #38 (facing the 68th–ranked offense), which is good, but Stanford's defense is ranked #1 and may have an easier time dealing with Notre Dame's 55th–ranked offense.
  
  This will be a legitimate test for a Notre Dame team that I think is overrated. I take Stanford.
• #19 Nebraska at #10 Michigan State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I think this could be one of the best games of the season, let alone this weekend.
  
  Both have Top 20 offenses (Nebraska is #8, Michigan State is #18); on defense, Michigan State is #11 while Nebraska is #31. There are several offensive stars to watch. Nebraska is led by rusher Ameer Abdullah (#3 nationally in rushing yardage), QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. and receiver Kenny Bell. Michigan State has QB Connor Cook (#3 nationally in passing efficiency), receiver Tony Lippett and rusher Jeremy Langford.
  
  Michigan State lost its first seven meetings with Nebraska, then won last year's game in Lincoln. I expect Michigan State to win today — narrowly.
• Vanderbilt at #13 Georgia, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network; Georgia is 8–2 in its last 10 home games against Vanderbilt.
  
  Georgia has been good but not great so far. This may be a chance for the Bulldogs to improve their numbers, especially against the woeful Vanderbilt offense (#121 in the country). I take Georgia at home.
• Arizona State at #16 Southern Cal, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: The Sun Devils have been a bit of a thorn in the Trojans' sides.
  
  They won their first meeting in 1978, handing Southern Cal its only loss of the year. They actually won six of the first 10 games between the schools.
  
  But, since 1991, USC has had the upper hand, winning 15 and losing five. Two of those losses, however, have come in the last three meetings, including last year's game in Tempe.
  
  The Trojans have won seven straight in Los Angeles against Arizona State, but I have to wonder if that streak could be coming to an end. The Pac–12 is known for offense, and ASU's offense is currently ranked ninth in the nation with QB Taylor Kelly, receiver Jaelan Strong and back D.J. Foster. I'm thinking they might be too much for the Trojans' defense. In what may be an upset, I'll take Arizona State.
• #17 Wisconsin at Northwestern, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Northwestern is much better than when I was growing up. The Wildcats have had some pretty good seasons in the last couple of decades.
  
  But they have also had seasons that suggested that they were still the same old two– or three–win Wildcats. I don't know which one they are this season or which one they will be today. But they have lost three in a row to Wisconsin at home, and I see no reason to think it won't be four in a row by sundown. Got to take Wisconsin.
• #20 Ohio State at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: I'd almost like to find some rationale for picking Maryland in its first–ever meeting with Ohio State.
  
  But I just can't come up with one.
  
  The Buckeyes are ranked higher in both offense and defense — by pretty significant margins. As a result, I expect Ohio State to win by a pretty significant margin.
• Iowa State at #21 Oklahoma State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: This series has been tighter than you probably think, although the upper hand has belonged to OSU in recent years. In fact, the Cowboys have beaten Iowa State the last three times the game has been played in Stillwater.
  
  Neither team has been impressive statistically so far, but Iowa State has been spectacularly unimpressive. The Cyclones aren't in the Top 100 in either offense or defense.
  
  I'll take Oklahoma State.
• SMU at #22 East Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This series is tied, 2–2. East Carolina won the first two, and SMU has won the most recent two.
  
  There really doesn't seem to be a home field advantage. Both teams are 1–1 in each other's stadium. SMU won the last meeting at East Carolina in 2010.
  
  I haven't seen much of SMU this season, but what I have seen isn't good. Plus there has been a lot of turmoil in the program. I think East Carolina will take advantage of the situation and win.
• Texas Tech at #23 Kansas State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Things happen in complementary streaks in this series.
  
  Tech won the first three meetings, then K–State won three. Then Tech won five straight. Now K–State is on a two–game winning streak.
  
  I watched Tech play my alma mater, Arkansas, a few weeks ago. Frankly, I wasn't impressed. I saw K–State play Auburn. The Wildcats lost, but I was still impressed. I'll take Kansas State.

Last week: 16–2

Season: 83–11