Sunday, December 29, 2013

The Punch Heard 'Round the Football World



"Evidently nobody in authority realized that a full–grown man who attached such importance to a game was, at best, immature, not to say a case of arrested development. The saddest part of the whole affair is that nobody at Ohio State saw the denouement approaching and protected Hayes from himself."

Red Smith (1905–1982)

Red Smith is one of my favorite journalists. I guess it is appropriate to call him a sports journalist, and he probably accepted that during his lifetime, but he wrote that he always "wanted to be a newspaperman and came to realize I didn't really care which side of the newspaper I worked on."

Frankly, I felt the same way. Smith had a philosophy about sports journalism that I tried to keep in mind when I worked on the sports side of newspapers.

"[P]eople go to spectator sports to have fun and then they grab the paper to read about it and have fun all over again," he wrote. "I've always tried to remember ... that sports isn't Armageddon. These are just little games that little boys can play, and it really isn't important to the future of civilization whether the Athletics or the Browns win."

Thirty–five years ago, Woody Hayes would have been smart to heed those words, especially the part about how sports isn't Armageddon. If he had, Hayes' 28–year coaching career at Ohio State might not have come to an end when it did.

Hayes had a reputation for being a disciplinarian, a man who would take young men and mold them into leaders. He was a military historian who often applied principles from military history to his coaching.

It was known that Hayes had a temper that he couldn't always control. He once tried to punch a sportswriter following a loss, but he missed and hit the brother of the sports editor of another paper instead. A few years later, he almost got into a fight with the athletic director of another school during a meeting of Big Ten Conference athletic directors and coaches.

Late in his career, he seemed to have a particular animosity for photographers. He shoved a camera in the face of a photographer before a Rose Bowl game, leading to a three–game suspension, and about a year before the 1978 Gator Bowl, he took a swing at a TV cameraman late in a loss to Michigan.

In spite of his history, no one suspected, when Dec. 29, 1978 dawned, that the Gator Bowl between #20 Ohio State and #7 Clemson in Jacksonville, Fla., that night would be Hayes' last game as a college football coach.

But when Clemson's Charlie Bauman intercepted a pass late in the game to seal a 17–15 victory, Hayes punched him in front of God and the TV cameras — and, at that moment, I knew Hayes was finished.

I'll never forget that night. I was in my grandmother's home. My family had been visiting her for Christmas, but we were frantically preparing to leave Dallas ahead of an ice storm that was expected within a few days. That night, for whatever reason, my father and I decided to stop packing and watch the football game. We both watched in utter disbelief as Hayes struck the opposing player.

An era was ending in college football. It had been kind of a comforting, reassuring era when the giants from the ranks of college coaches were always there on the sidelines of the truly big games. One by one, though, they were stepping aside, and the next generation was taking over.

It was an inevitable transition. It happens in all walks of life with the passage of time, but we all know that people still get sentimental about endings. It is true of coaches, too; people are always wistful when longtime coaches leave. The coaches themselves are often wistful. It is a bittersweet time.

In many ways, the sports world is the same as it was when Hayes walked the sideline. But in other ways it has changed dramatically. One has to wonder, in hindsight, if Hayes could have remained the Ohio State football coach for much longer.

In the years after the legends of the 20th century roamed the sidelines, that drill sergeant mentality gradually fell out of favor with college athletic directors. There may be a few of them out there, but, for the most part, they have vanished.
"... Charlie Bauman intercepted a pass and went out of bounds right where the Ohio State coach stood. That architect of young manhood laid hold of Bauman and fetched him a roundhouse right to the chops. Fists flailing, he tried to charge onto the field, but his own scholar athletes, already bruised and bleeding from their pursuit of culture, overpowered him."

Red Smith

Hayes, it was said more and more frequently, physically assaulted his players during practice, and that did bother some people at the time, but most folks were willing to ignore it as long as he didn't do that kind of thing in public. After all, this was football, a man's game, and men are tough.

Today, a college coach who struck an athlete, whether in view of only his peers or a national TV audience, would most likely get the boot regardless of who he was. Politics — and political correctness — won't tolerate that sort of thing.

Three decades ago, schools were more protective of their star coaches, firing them only when they had no choice. And, on this day in 1978, Ohio State was left with no choice.

There really wasn't anything special about the 1978 Gator Bowl. It was the first time — and, until Clemson and Ohio State meet in Friday night's Orange Bowl, the only time — the schools faced off in football.

But the game set no records for scoring or anything else, as I recall. It is remembered only for Hayes' punch.

Saturday, December 21, 2013

The Bowl Season Begins Today



Today is the first day of the college football bowl season, and I have analyzed each bowl game involving a Top 25 team, right up to the national championship showdown between Florida State and Auburn on Jan. 6.

There are four games on the schedule today — but only one involving a Top 25 team.

As Erick Smith reports in USA Today, however, there is no shortage of intriguing storylines to follow over the next couple of weeks — even if the game in question doesn't have a Top 25 team playing in it.

So let the games begin.
Today
  • Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl: #21 Fresno State vs. Southern Cal, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: We're only a few days from Christmas. This is the last shopping weekend before the big day. A lot of people wonder why they should watch Fresno State play football.

    The most obvious is that Fresno State as a team came within a single victory of breaking into a BCS bowl game in the last year of the BCS' existence. The Bulldogs have the third–best offense in the nation.

    A lot of teams in the NFL are in the market for a good quarterback, and Fresno's Derek Carr, who will be playing in his final collegiate game today, is worth watching. He completed 70% of his passes during the regular season, and he attempted 605 passes. That is an average of more than 50 passes a game. His performance against the Trojans is sure to be a factor in draft decisions.

    These schools have actually faced each other twice before, and it's been a split decision.

    In 1992, they met in the Freedom Bowl in Anaheim, and Fresno State prevailed, 24–7. They last met in 2005, and Southern Cal was the winner on that occasion, 50–42.

    I think Fresno State will win this time.
Thursday
  • S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Utah State vs. #24 Northern Illinois, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As usual, the Heisman attention went to the winner, Florida State's Jameis Winston, and the runnerup, Alabama's A.J. McCarron. I suppose that is appropriate.

    Football fans can catch their last glimpses of both as collegiate players early in the new year.

    But the third–place finisher, Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch, will be finishing his collegiate career the day after Christmas. Lynch's numbers weren't eye–popping, but, like other quarterbacks who have gone on to success in the NFL, he did the things he needed to do to win — except in the Mid–American Conference championship game, which Northern Illinois lost to Bowling Green (I would argue, though, that the loss to Bowling Green was a team effort).

    These schools have only met once, in 1995, and Utah State won, 42–7. I expect Northern Illinois to return the favor.
Saturday, Dec. 28
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. #25 Notre Dame, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: A year ago, the Irish were preparing to meet Alabama for the national championship. Now, after an 8–4 campaign, the 25th–ranked Irish will face Rutgers, then (presumably) watch the Florida State–Auburn game along with the rest of the nation a week later.

    After playing for a national title, it is hard to imagine what would motivate Notre Dame in this game. Perhaps the desire to get a momentum jump on the 2014 season is what will push Notre Dame in this game.

    These schools have faced off four times before, and Notre Dame has won them all, three by shutout.

    This time they are returning to the original scene of the crime — kinda. On Nov. 8, 1921, Notre Dame beat Rutgers in New York, N.Y., 48–0. Ninety–two years later, the Irish will face the Scarlet Knights in New York's Yankee Stadium.

    I think Notre Dame will win — and it won't be particularly close.
  • Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami (Fla.) vs. #18 Louisville, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have met on the gridiron 10 times, but this will be the first time in a postseason setting.

    Miami won eight of those previous encounters, Louisville won one and there was a tie back in 1950.

    But get this: Louisville's only victory in the series occurred the last time the teams faced each other — in 2006. It has been nearly 10 years since Miami beat Louisville.

    Louisville's offensive leader is quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the fifth–best quarterback overall and the only one with a higher completion percentage than Fresno's Carr (by .08 of a percentage point) although he attempted more than 200 fewer passes than Carr did.

    It is often forgotten that Bridgewater, a junior, originally committed to Miami, then signed with Louisville. Do you suppose there might be a revenge factor in this game? I don't know, but Bridgewater should be careful. Miami's defense isn't as good as it used to be, but its pass defense was much better than its run defense this season.

    Of course, that kind of recruiting reversal works both ways, as Jeff Greer of the Louisville Courier–Journal observes. A safety who had committed to Louisville recently decided to sign with Miami instead.

    I pick Louisville to win a close one.
Monday, Dec. 30
  • Valero Alamo Bowl: #10 Oregon vs. Texas, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be Texas coach Mack Brown's last game at the helm. He has announced his resignation at the conclusion of the Alamo Bowl.

    One of the many ironies of Brown's tenure that he is the only Texas football coach ever to lose to Oregon. He did so in the 2000 Holiday Bowl. Will he make up for it in his final appearance on the UT sideline?

    The schools met four times prior to that — in 1941, 1947, 1962 and 1971 — and Texas won them all.

    If Texas is going to beat Oregon, the defense, which has been frequently criticized this season, will have to play probably its best game of the year. Oregon's offense is ranked second in the nation, thanks to the presence of the sixth–best quarterback (Marcus Mariota) who is draft–eligible as a third–year sophomore, but he has already announced he will come back for his junior year. He completed 63% of his attempts and threw 30 TD passes while allowing only four interceptions.

    That's going to be quite a challenge for a Texas defense that is ranked 63rd in the nation overall. The Longhorns are better against the pass (#30) with 10 interceptions. Texas will have to put the brakes on Oregon's potent offense if Brown is going to end his 16–year tenure with a win.

    I don't think he will, though. He might — if Oregon is preoccupied by thoughts of the losses to Stanford and Arizona State that kept them out of the Pac–12 championship game and a BCS bowl.

    Not likely. I expect Oregon to win.
  • National University Holiday Bowl: #16 Arizona State vs. Texas Tech, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have only met once — in 1999 — and ASU was the winner, 31–13.

    By the time they kick off for the second time, the Texas–Oregon game will be over, and speculation about Mack Brown's successor will be thrown into high gear. While the coaches in the Holiday Bowl, Arizona State's Todd Graham and Texas Tech's Kliff Kingsbury, are probably dark horses on anyone's list for the UT job, they are among the hottest coaches in college football, and a solid performance by one in this game, coming, as it would, on the heels of Brown's finale, could only enhance his case.

    It would be an upset if Texas Tech, which won its first seven this season but then lost its last five, managed to win this game, but perhaps the desire not to enter 2014 with a six–game losing streak will serve to motivate the Red Raiders.

    Doubtful. I expect Arizona State to win by a couple of touchdowns.
Tuesday, Dec. 31
  • Hyundai Sun Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. #17 UCLA, 1 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is the first time these two storied programs have faced each other.

    And, in the absence of any sort of history between the two schools, pregame attention has focused on other things — like the coaching vacancy at Texas. UCLA coach Jim Mora apparently sought to dispel any such speculation about him, saying the only part of Texas he intends to visit is the site of the Sun Bowl, El Paso, which is roughly 525 miles from Austin.

    Virginia Tech retains its gridiron reputation, but the fact is that the program isn't what it was when Michael Vick was the quarterback. Tech's offense was lucky to be in the Top 100 when this season was over (UCLA finished 37th behind QB Brett Hundley). Tech's defense is pretty good, though — the unit is ranked fourth in the nation — and UCLA's 56th–ranked defense is arguably its weakness, yielding at least 23 points (usually more than that) to seven of its 12 opponents in 2013.

    With a win, though, UCLA can cap a 10–win season for the first time since 2005. My guess is that UCLA will win — by a touchdown.
  • Chick–fil–A Bowl: #22 Duke vs. #20 Texas A&M, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is a match of arguably the two Cinderella stories of the last two seasons.

    Everyone knows the story of the Aggies, of course. Redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy in 2012 and led Texas A&M to victory over Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. It was the Aggies' first 11–win season since 1998.

    Duke amazed everyone this year. Sports fans are accustomed to seeing Duke's basketball team playing for national honors, but the football team is a stranger to these parts. The Blue Devils were bowl eligible last year, but they lost by a couple of touchdowns and reverted to the familiar sub–.500 territory with a 6–7 record.

    Prior to that, Duke hadn't been to a bowl in 20 years, and the Blue Devils haven't won one since the Jan. 2, 1960 Cotton Bowl.

    It will be hard for Duke to end its winless skid in the postseason. The Aggies' fourth–ranked offense is likely to have a lot of fun with Duke's 72nd–ranked defense.

    On the other hand, even though Duke's offense is ranked 68th, it might not have to work too hard against A&M's defense, which is one of the worst in the land (#108).

    I expect a high–scoring game, but, ultimately, I expect the Aggies to wear down the Blue Devils. I think Texas A&M will win by at least two touchdowns.
New Year's Day


  • TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs. #23 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the third meeting of these schools, each time in a different bowl.

    They first met in the 1969 Sun Bowl, a 45–6 Nebraska victory. They met for a second time last New Year's Day in the Capital One Bowl. Georgia won that one with a second–half rally, 45–31.

    In the old days, I guess it would have been easy to pick Nebraska to prevail. But times have change, and Georgia is the one with the national ranking this time.

    And Georgia enters the game with the better offense by far. But that was almost entirely when star quarterback Aaron Murray was running the offense. Murray's season ended with a knee injury, and junior Hutson Mason, next year's projected starter, will be starting against Nebraska. Mason did all right in his first start, the season finale against Georgia Tech, but it remains to be seen if the Georgia offense will live up to its regular–season standards against the Cornhuskers.

    Nebraska does have a better defense than Georgia, and that might be significant against an inexperienced quarterback.

    Even so, I expect Georgia to win.
  • Capital One Bowl: #19 Wisconsin vs. #8 South Carolina, noon (Central) on ABC: These teams have never faced each other before so the Capital One Bowl marks the first chapter of their series.

    Even though South Carolina, as a team, is ranked higher than Wisconsin, the Badgers are ranked ahead of the Gamecocks in both offense and defense.

    In fact, Wisconsin is ranked sixth in both total and run defense.

    According to USA Today, the running game will figure prominently for both teams. I believe that is true. Wisconsin has the eighth–ranked rushing offense; South Carolina's running game is ranked 30th.

    I think Wisconsin will win.
  • Outback Bowl: Iowa vs. #14 LSU, noon (Central) on ESPN: The last time these teams met, in the 2005 Capital One Bowl, Iowa won a thriller to ruin Nick Saban's last game as LSU's coach.

    People tended to overlook Iowa this year, largely because the Hawkeyes lost their season opener and then lost three of four in the middle of the season. Also, Iowa fell from the national radar after going 4–8 last year.

    But Iowa had the seventh–best defense in the nation this year. LSU's offense is good — ranked 26th — which sets up an interesting confrontation.

    It probably won't be as interesting when Iowa has the ball. The Hawkeyes are 79th in offense while LSU is 20th in defense.

    There could be some psychological stuff at work here. While LSU retains its national reputation, the Tigers have lost three of their last four bowl appearances.

    I think Iowa will win.
  • Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO: #5 Stanford vs. #4 Michigan State, 4 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The old adage that defense wins championships — or, at least, bowl games — may never have been better represented than in this year's Rose Bowl.

    These teams have met five times over the years, but the series has been dormant since 1996, when Stanford blanked Michigan State in the Sun Bowl.

    For that matter, Michigan State hasn't beaten Stanford since 1961.

    But things might change. Michigan State has the best defense in the nation. The Spartans aren't likely to be intimidated by Stanford's 65th–ranked offense.

    When Michigan State's 82nd–ranked offense is on the field, it will have to contend with Stanford's 14th–ranked defense.

    To say that I anticipate a low–scoring game is an understatement. I think 17 points will be enough to win it.

    And I give the edge to Michigan State.
  • Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: #15 UCF vs. #6 Baylor, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: My father usually only watches games that feature a personal rooting interest (team, player or coach) or a big name. A game between UCF and Baylor probably won't qualify.

    So why should you spend the first night of the year watching them play? Well, there are a few reasons. For one, Baylor is healthy again, and when all hands are on deck, the Bears are very entertaining. They have the best offense in the nation, averaging more than 50 points and more than 600 yards per game.

    UCF has the 19th–ranked defense in the land, but you have to wonder if the Knights will be able to contain Baylor's offense for 60 minutes.

    Baylor's 17th–ranked defense should have an easier time with UCF's 45th–ranked offense.

    The Wall Street Journal calls this the "Sharknado" bowl. I pick Baylor to win it by two touchdowns.
Thursday, Jan. 2
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl: #11 Oklahoma vs. #3 Alabama, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As much as these schools have dominated the college football landscape for decades, I was astonished to learn they have only met four times — and two of those meetings came in the last 11 years.

    Oklahoma won the encounters in 2002 and 2003. The two earlier meetings were in bowl games — the 1963 Orange Bowl (won by Alabama) and the 1970 Bluebonnet Bowl (a tie).

    Back before the season began, OU coach Bob Stoops alleged that the Southeastern Conference, which has been home to the last seven national champions, was top–heavy. I know Alabama is disappointed to not be playing for a third straight national title, but it seems to me that Nick Saban should drag out that press clipping if he wants to motivate the Crimson Tide.

    Heisman runnerup A.J. McCarron leads an offense that is ranked 36th in the nation but is 21st running the ball. Oklahoma has a good defense (13th in the nation), and it was successful against both the run and the pass this season, but the Sooners were more successful against the pass than the run.

    When Oklahoma has the ball, the Sooners probably would prefer to run the ball, given that their ground game is ranked 18th in the country. But Alabama's run defense is ranked 11th so common sense suggests that, at some point, OU will have to go to the air, and that is a recipe for disaster. Oklahoma's passing offense is 99th while Alabama's pass defense is ranked fifth.

    I expect Alabama to win by a couple of touchdowns.
Friday, Jan. 3


  • Discover Orange Bowl: #12 Clemson vs. #7 Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Someone ought to call this the Woody Hayes Bowl because these were the two teams that participated in the Gator Bowl 35 years ago when Hayes slugged a Clemson player and wound up being terminated by Ohio State.

    That is the only time these two schools have faced each other — until now.

    Clemson played in the Orange Bowl two years ago and gave up an Orange Bowl–record 70 points, smashing a record that had stood for nearly 60 years. There are probably a few Tigers remaining from that roster, and I'm sure they would like to leave Miami with a better taste in their mouths this time.

    As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes were a Big Ten championship away from playing for the national title but lost to Michigan State, snapping a 24–game winning streak that was often said to be light on quality opposition. A win over a credible program like Clemson would go a long way toward rebuilding Ohio State's legitimacy as a national contender.

    In the end, though, I expect about the same outcome as in the 1978 Gator Bowl — minus the Woody Hayes punch. I think Clemson will claim a narrow win.
  • AT&T Cotton Bowl: #13 Oklahoma State vs. #9 Missouri, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: As colleagues in the Big Eight and Big 12 conferences, OSU and Missouri have a long history.

    In fact, their first six games were played when they were not conference rivals. But every game they played between 1960 and 2011 were as members of the same conference.

    OSU came out on the short end of the stick nine of the first 10 times the schools met, and the Cowboys have never been able to overtake the Tigers in their all–time series.

    After they joined the Big 12, they didn't play each other every year anymore because they were in different divisions. But they met annually from 1960 to 1997. Missouri was the winner most of the time, but Oklahoma State did reel off seven straight wins over Missouri from 1984 to 1990.

    That was Oklahoma State's longest winning streak in the series. The Cowboys are currently enjoying their second–longest winning streak (three in a row) against Missouri. Will they extend it?

    I think it's a tough call. This has the potential to be the closest bowl game of them all, but I think Missouri will pull it off.
Monday, Jan. 6
  • VIZIO BCS National Championship: #1 Florida State vs. #2 Auburn, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: History is on Auburn's side in this game. These teams have met 18 times since 1954, and Auburn has dominated the series, 13–4–1.

    But this series is kind of a "that was then, this is now" kind of series. Auburn went 9–0–1 against Florida State the first 10 times they played each other, but since 1977, the series is dead even, 4–4. In fact, the Seminoles have won three of the last four encounters, including a victory in the Jan. 2, 1989 Sugar Bowl.

    But they haven't met since 1990 — when Bobby Bowden coached the Seminoles and Pat Dye coached the Tigers.

    Florida State's offense and defense both rank higher than Auburn's, but many college football fans are quick to point out that Auburn plays in the mighty Southeastern Conference — in a division that requires the Tigers to play Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M every season — whereas Florida State plays in the Atlantic Coast Conference, a conference that is better known for its basketball prowess.

    There is truth in that.

    But Florida State has been thrashing everyone it has faced this season, and Heisman winner Jameis Winston completed nearly 68% of his passes and had a ratio of touchdowns to interceptions of nearly 4–to–1. Auburn's defense is 63rd in passing efficiency, 104th in general passing defense.

    I pick Florida State to end the SEC's BCS dominance.
Last week: 7–3

Season: 224–46

Monday, December 16, 2013

2003: A Juice Odyssey



Forty years ago today, my father was finishing up his sabbatical in Nashville, and my family was about to return to my hometown in Arkansas.

I remember that my brother and I had just finished school and been dismissed for the Christmas holiday, and we had been withdrawn from school by my mother. We would enroll in school for the spring term in my hometown in January.

Most of our furniture (except for our beds) was rented because we knew we would only be there four months, but we had many personal possessions to pack.

The plan was to leave Nashville around Monday or Tuesday, drive home and unload all our personal possessions, then (after returning the U–Haul trailer) hit the road for Dallas to spend Christmas with my grandmothers.

We were making progress in packing our things, but on this day, which was a Sunday in 1973, we stopped what we were doing to watch O.J. Simpson of the Buffalo Bills try to do what no one had ever been able to do before — run for 2,000 yards in a season.

Actually, the emphasis was on setting a single–season rushing record. Finishing the season with 2,000 yards was viewed, right up to kickoff, as a still possible but far from probable outcome.

No matter how it may seem from the perspective of 40 years later, Simpson needed nearly 200 yards in the final game of the season to make it to 2,000. He had done that before during the 1973 season but not in his earlier match with the New York Jets, one of the Bills' division rivals and their opponent that day. Two hundred yards didn't seem a realistic goal. His realistic objective that day was to pass the legendary Jim Brown, who ran for 1,863 yards in a single season 10 years earlier.

Simpson needed only 60 yards to match Brown, and common sense said he could get that with ease. Simpson ran for twice as many yards when the teams met back in the third week of the season. Only the defending Super Bowl champion Miami Dolphins and their no–name defense had held Simpson to fewer than 60 yards in a game.

Momentum was clearly on Simpson's side. He had run for more than 100 yards in each of the last four games (would have been five, but he fell a single yard short against the Cincinnati Bengals in mid–November).

As I say, he needed nearly 200 yards to break the 2,000–yard barrier, and most observers dismissed that as unrealistic. True, he had run for more than 200 yards the week before, but that was against another division rival, the New England Patriots, and Simpson had run for more than 200 yards against the Patriots in the season opener as well — but he hadn't managed to do it against anyone else.

In a steady snowfall, it was clear early that Simpson would set a new single–season rushing record. The next obvious question was whether he could reach the barrier of 2,000 yards against the Jets, who were 4–9.

Simpson was more dramatic on that one, going down to the wire before finally notching his 2,000th yard late in the fourth quarter of the last regular–season game.

The argument can be made that the Jets had nothing for which to play, but the same could be said of the Bills.

And, mind you, I make no excuses for anything Simpson may have done since his playing career ended. Forty years ago, he was the hottest thing in football, virtually the Johnny Football of his day. Whatever role he may or may not have played in the murders of his ex–wife and her friend and the crimes of which he was convicted in Nevada, they were still more than 20 years in the future.

Others have broken that 2,000–yard barrier since then. But Simpson is the only one to achieve it in 14 games. All the others ran for 2,000–plus yards in 16–game seasons.

O.J.'s is an accomplishment that may never be duplicated.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Auburn's Aura of Inevitability



A couple of weeks ago, I was willing to let Auburn's miraculous, last–minute, game–winning touchdown against Georgia fall under the heading of "one of those things."

But then an even more miraculous finish occurred in last Saturday's Iron Bowl against two–time defending national champion Alabama (see attached video).

And I had to conclude that maybe there is a sense of inevitability around the Auburn football team this year.

Currently, Florida State and Ohio State are the picks to advance to the national championship game. But they both have to play conference championship games this weekend, and it possible that one or both could lose.

If either team loses, Auburn could sneak in to the national championship game — but Auburn must face Missouri in the SEC's championship game this weekend. An Auburn loss coupled with a loss by Florida State and/or Ohio State could throw the whole BCS into chaos.

In the past, that would not have bothered me. But the BCS' days are numbered, and we know a playoff system is going to be implemented. No useful purpose could be served by the kind of chaos that would be created by a long–running debate over whether one or both of the teams chosen to play for the national title deserve(s) to be there.

Idle: #4 Alabama, #8 South Carolina, #12 Oregon, #13 Clemson, #14 LSU, #17 UCLA, #21 Wisconsin, #22 Texas A&M, #25 Georgia

Today
  • #19 Louisville at Cincinnati, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Cincinnati has a chance — albeit a slim one — to play in a BCS bowl if the Bearcats can upend the Cardinals and Central Florida loses on Saturday.

    That's a longshot, though.

    It isn't necessarily a longshot historically. These teams have faced each other 44 times and, were it not for a tie back in 1977, they would be even at 22–22. Louisville did beat Cincinnati last year, but Cincinnati won the four games played prior to that.

    The teams are deadlocked in Cincinnati (11–11).

    And it isn't even a longshot statistically. Cincinnati's offense (ranked 18th) is better than Louisville's (32nd).

    But it is defense, they say, that wins championships, and Louisville's is second only to Michigan State's. Cincinnati's is ranked eighth, though.

    It should be a good game, and Cincinnati might win, but I'll still take Louisville.
Friday
  • Mid–American Championship — Bowling Green vs. #16 Northern Illinois at Detroit, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Bowling Green leads the all–time series, but Northern Illinois has had the upper hand in four of the last five meetings.

    The stakes are high for the Huskies in this game, but the Falcons won't be pushovers.

    And the most exciting football of the night might be played when Northern Illinois' fourth–ranked offense takes the field against Bowling Green's seventh–ranked defense.

    Bowling Green's offense (ranked 23rd) might have an easier time of it against Northern Illinois' defense (73rd).

    I'm tempted to pick Bowling Green because of its defense, but instead I will pick Northern Illinois by a field goal.
Saturday
  • ACC Championship — #20 Duke vs. #1 Florida State at Charlotte, N.C., 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have met 18 times, and Florida State has won them all.

    But this is a golden opportunity for the Blue Devils, one that might never come their way again. Long known for their prowess on the basketball court, the Blue Devils can win an ACC championship in football — and knock off the top–ranked team in the nation at the same time. What better way to cap the Cinderella season they've had in 2013?

    Except it ain't going to happen.

    Florida State has the fourth–best defense in the nation and the seventh–best offense. Duke, on the other hand, is in the Top 60 (barely) in both categories.

    It would be fun to see Duke win the ACC — and I will be pulling for the Blue Devils — but I still pick Florida State by 10.
  • Big Ten Championship — #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Michigan State at Indianapolis, 7:17 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Historically speaking, the odds are against Michigan State.

    The Spartans have lost 70% of all their games with the Buckeyes — and more than 80% of the time they have met since 1991. Ohio State, it is fair to say, owns this series.

    The question is, will they win this time? To do so will require Ohio State's offense (ranked sixth) to take it to Michigan State's top–ranked defense.

    And my guess is that the Spartan defense will have to do some scoring because the 84th–ranked offense cannot be expected to do much against Ohio State (ranked 30th on defense).

    I pick Ohio State to claim a narrow win.


  • SEC Championship — #5 Missouri vs. #3 Auburn at Atlanta, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: It has been nearly 40 years since the first — and, until this Saturday, only — meeting between these schools.

    It was in December 1973 in the Sun Bowl in El Paso. Auburn won on that occasion, 34–17.

    This one looks like a pretty even match. Both teams have Top 20 offenses and defenses — with Auburn holding very narrow advantages in both.

    And, as I said earlier, Auburn has taken on that aura of inevitability. We may be in for another incredible finish. I pick Auburn to win.
  • #18 Oklahoma at #6 Oklahoma State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: They call this the Bedlam Series in Oklahoma, and OU has had the upper hand in it for a long time.

    The Sooners have won nearly 80% of the time they have played the Cowboys. OSU did win the last time the teams met in Stillwater (a notoriously tough place for visitors), but the Sooners won the previous five of six meetings there.

    Statistically, OU has the better defense, and OSU has the better offense. Which will emerge as the more dominant?

    I'm going to go with Oklahoma State.
  • Pac–12 Championship — #7 Stanford at #11 Arizona State, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford owns a two–game winning streak against Arizona State.

    But they haven't met in three years. Consequently, Arizona State hasn't beaten Stanford since 2008 — but that game was played at Arizona State where Saturday's game will be played.

    Stanford hasn't fared too well at Arizona State. The Cardinal did pull off a 17–13 win when they played there in 2010, but that snapped a four–game home winning streak for the Sun Devils.

    But that is what happened in the past. What about the immediate future?

    Stanford has a better defense, but Arizona State is ranked in the Top 25 in both offense and defense. And, in the Pac–12, defense has been rendered virtually irrelevant.

    I'm inclined to think that Arizona State may be better equipped to play a complete game than Stanford, but my instincts tell me Stanford will find a way to prevail.
  • #23 Texas at #9 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Texas has won nearly three–fourths of its games with Baylor, but the Bears have played better when the game has been played in Waco, as it is this year.

    In fact, the Bears won the last time they played the Longhorns in Waco, snapping a six–game home losing streak against Texas.

    Baylor also has higher–ranked offensive and defensive units than Texas. The Longhorns might make it interesting for awhile, but Baylor should win at home.
  • #15 UCF at SMU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: In five previous meetings, UCF has beaten SMU four times.

    It is possible that SMU could win this time. The Mustangs have a decent offense (ranked 40th, four spots ahead of UCF), but UCF has, by far, the better defense (#18 to #83).

    I expect UCF to win.
  • Mountain West Championship — Utah State at #24 Fresno State, 9 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Fresno State has seized the lead in this series with eight wins in the last nine meetings. In fact, Utah State hasn't beaten Fresno State since 2006.

    Also in Fresno State's favor is its offensive ranking (second) although Utah State does have the 11th–best defense in the country. The football figures to be a lot less polished when Utah State's 49th–ranked offense takes the field against Fresno's 100th–ranked defense.

    I'll take Fresno State by a touchdown.
Last week: 12–6

Season: 217–43