Who Will Play for National Crown?

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" 'Ass' is okay providing you're riding into town on a religious feast day."

George Carlin

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With so much on the line in Saturday night's game between top–ranked Notre Dame and unranked Southern California, I suppose churches can be forgiven for getting into the act.

It's a big rivalry, anyway, but with a trip to the national championship game hanging in the balance for one — and the desire to deprive the first of that honor motivating the second — I suppose the stakes were just too great.

Well, Notre Dame won the game and, presumably, will be in the title game.

But it remains to be seen who will play against the Irish in January.

Logic says it will be the winner of the SEC Championship game between #2 Alabama and #3 Georgia tomorrow. And I would tend to agree with that — if Alabama wins the game. But if Georgia wins, I think a compelling case could be made for #5 Florida even though Georgia will almost certainly wind up facing Notre Dame if the Bulldogs defeat Alabama (who, it is worth noting, went on to play for and win the national championship last season even though the Crimson Tide did not play for the SEC title).

The Gators are 11–1, same as Georgia and Alabama. They did lose their head–to–head matchup with Georgia a month ago (17–9), but they hammered a South Carolina team that had hammered Georgia two weeks before.

And the Gators did something Alabama couldn't do. They beat Texas A&M on the road. Alabama couldn't beat the Aggies at home.

The stakes are high in the SEC Championship game. The winner, of course, is widely expected to face Notre Dame in the championship game.

But the loser?

Chip Towers of the Atlanta Journal–Constitution contends that the loser of Saturday's game will take a considerable tumble in the bowl picture even though it will only be the second loss for whichever team comes up short.

Idle: #1 Notre Dame, #4 Ohio State, #5 Florida, #6 Oregon, #9 LSU, #10 Texas A&M, #11 South Carolina, #15 Clemson, #16 Oregon, #20 Utah State, #21 Michigan, #22 Northwestern

Friday

• MAC Championship: #19 Northern Illinois at #18 Kent State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Neither of these 11–1 teams has lost since early September.
  
  Kent State has a 10–game winning streak on the line, and Northern Illinois has an 11–game winning streak at risk.
  
  They didn't play each other this season so there is no head–to–head outcome to give us guidance.
  
  Historically, the series belongs to Northern Illinois, which has never lost to Kent State on its home turf (10–0). Unfortunately for the Huskies, the game is being played at Kent State. Northern Illinois has been very successful there, too — 6–3 — but not quite as successful.
  
  The teams don't play every year, but Northern Illinois has only lost at Kent once in 30 years. And Northern Illinois has only lost once to Kent State — no matter where the game has been played — in their last 10 meetings.
  
  That doesn't bode well for the Golden Flashes although the game should be quite a conference showcase.
  
  Half a dozen backs racked up 1,000 yards or more this season, and three (Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch and Kent State's Dri Archer and Trayion Durham) will be suiting up for the championship.
  
  Lynch was also the MAC's fifth–best passer — which would be expected, I guess, from the nation's 16th–best offense (Kent was 63rd).
  
  Northern Illinois also has the better defense (ranked #7 in the nation compared to Kent's #73 ranking).
  
  I pick Northern Illinois.
• Pac–12 Championship: #17 UCLA at #8 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have been playing each other every year since the end of World War II.
  
  And it's tempting, given the fact that these teams played each other last weekend, to predict a repeat of what happened in Los Angeles last Saturday.
  
  To refresh your memory, Stanford won that game, 35–17. It was Stanford's second consecutive win on UCLA's home turf.
  
  Now the scene shifts to the north, to Stanford's home turf — where UCLA has won only twice in the last 15 years.
  
  UCLA might have the offense to get the job done. The Bruins ranked 21st in the nation (Stanford ranked 83rd). And if the game turns into a shootout, one would expect UCLA to have the upper hand. After all, offense — not defense — has long been the conference's strength.
  
  But if it turns out to be a defensive struggle, Stanford has the advantage. Stanford ranks 19th in the nation; UCLA is 77th.
  
  The weather may dictate which it is.
  
  The forecast for tonight is temperatures in the 50s with an 80% chance of rain (after a day in which the probability of rain is 100%). That suggests that defense may dominate on a sloppy field.
  
  It's awfully hard for one football team to beat another twice in one year, but I will pick Stanford to pull it off.

Saturday

• SEC Championship: #3 Georgia vs. #2 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Playing in the SEC Championship game is not a new experience for Alabama.
  
  The Crimson Tide has played in seven since the conference title game made its debut in 1992 — more appearances than any other SEC West team and all against Florida.
  
  Georgia is no stranger to the SEC Championship game, either. The Bulldogs will be playing in their fifth.
  
  You would think that these schools would be natural border rivals, but the truth is they haven't faced each other since 2008.
  
  And even if they faced each other every year, there are at least three other schools that Alabama has long–standing rivalries with — LSU, Auburn and Florida.
  
  Alabama is one of those schools that is everyone's rival when the Crimson Tide appears on the schedule.
  
  Georgia's been good this season, but Alabama has the nation's best defense. And the SEC has always been a bastion for great defense. Georgia's offense is ranked 24th, which is pretty good, but how effective can it be against the best defense in the land?
  
  Alabama's offense is ranked 43rd, which isn't bad, but Georgia's defense is ranked 22nd in the nation — all of which suggests a low–scoring contest.
  
  And I'm going to predict that, in an upset, Georgia will win.
• #23 Texas at #7 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There aren't many schools that can claim to have the upper hand in a series with Texas.
  
  But Kansas State can. The Wildcats are 7–5 against the Longhorns, and they're 6–2 against UT since the formation of the Big 12 in the mid–'90s.
  
  K–State might still be mentioned — probably would be — in the national championship conversation if not for the 52–24 loss that Baylor hung on the Wildcats last weekend. That, alone, should provide plenty of motivation for the Wildcats.
  
  When Texas has the ball, the Longhorns' #33 offense should be evenly matched with K–State's #40 defense. When Kansas State has the ball, it seems likely the Wildcats will have the edge. Their offense is ranked only #55, but Texas' woeful defense is ranked #79.
  
  I think Kansas State will win the game.
• #12 Oklahoma at TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the first time these teams have faced each other as members of the same conference, but they are hardly strangers.
  
  They have played 11 times in the past, and Oklahoma leads the series, 7–4.
  
  TCU has a good team, but I'm not sure the Frogs have what it takes to beat OU, even at home.
  
  The marquee matchup should occur when OU has the ball. The Sooners' offense is ninth in the nation, but it should be adequately tested by TCU's defense, which is ranked 14th.
  
  The Sooner' #44 defense should be evenly matched with TCU's offense (#55), which leads me to believe the Sooners will have the upper hand.
  
  I pick Oklahoma.
• ACC Championship: #13 Florida State at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is kind of an odd series.
  
  From 1955 to 1975, Georgia Tech was 6–0–1 against Florida State, but then the Seminoles reeled off 12 straight wins from 1992 to 2003.
  
  The teams didn't play again until 2008, but Tech won that year and again in 2009. They haven't played since.
  
  Georgia Tech lost its leading rusher, Orwin Smith, to a sprained ankle against Georgia last Saturday, but he hopes to be back in the lineup for the ACC Championship game.
  
  That would be good news for Tech fans, whose 28th–ranked offense likely will struggle with Florida State's second–ranked defense even with Smith in the lineup. Tech's 59th–ranked defense, meanwhile, can be expected to have a hard time containing Florida State's 19th–ranked offense.
  
  I think Florida State will win the game.
• Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin at #14 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If you're a fan of defense, this might be the game for you.
  
  Both defenses rank in the Top 15 nationally (Wisconsin is #11, Nebraska is #15). Nebraska's offense (#24) seems much better equipped to handle that challenge than Wisconsin's (#84).
  
  As a result, I have to pick Nebraska to win.
• #24 Oklahoma State at Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Oklahoma State has only lost to Baylor once since 1994, and the Cowboys currently have a six–game winning streak against the Bears.
  
  The teams combined for 83 points in each of their last two meetings, but, if anything, their offenses appear to be capable of doing even better than that this time. Baylor is ranked second in the nation, OSU is ranked fifth.
  
  But Baylor has the next–to–worst defense in the nation. The Bears were able to overcome that in their game with Kansas State next week, but I don't see how they can manage that two weeks in a row.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.
• #25 Boise State at Nevada, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's really hard for me to see how Boise State can lose this game.
  
  Historically, Boise dominates the series, leading 11–4. Boise has only lost to Nevada once since 1999.
  
  Nevada, however, has the #10 offense in the land, which should make for some intriguing clashes when Boise's eighth–ranked defense is on the field.
  
  Boise State's offense is only #79 in the country — a considerable tumble from recent years — but that should produce another even match since Nevada's defense is ranked 86th.
  
  There's a natural inclination within me (as there is within many people) to pull for the underdog, and, if I watch this game on Saturday, I'll probably pull for Nevada since the Wolf Pack are almost certain to be the underdogs (given their history against Boise State).
  
  But logic tells me Boise State will win.

Last week: 13–6

Season: 203–55

The End of the Macho Man

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During his lifetime, I sometimes heard Hector "Macho" Camacho compared to Muhammad Ali.

And I could see certain similarities. Both were dynamic and charismatic. Matt Schubel writes in the Washington Post of Camacho's "theatrical presence" in the ring.

Like Ali, he was also a gifted fighter, faster than any of his contemporaries and possessed of a style unlike any of his rivals.

Some people would even extend the comparison to include both fighters' brushes with the law — but, while the law is the law and, technically speaking, there is no real difference between a violation of one law and a violation of another, there are differences between Ali and Camacho.

Justice is supposed to be blind. In that sense, all laws are created equal.

But not all crimes are created equal.

With the exception of claiming conscientious objector status during the Vietnam War, Ali has — to my knowledge — observed the laws of his homeland, even those with which he may have disagreed.

He became a cultural lightning rod with his refusal to fight in Vietnam, and there are still those who berate him for it. He served no time in prison, but he was stripped of his title and did not fight for nearly four years — a boxer's prime years — until the matter had been resolved in court.

No court ruling could restore to Ali what had been taken from him, but he went on to become the first three–time heavyweight champion, anyway.

Camacho, on the other hand, "was continually shadowed by drug problems and legal entanglements," writes Schubel. That may well have been what brought about the end of his life.

Camacho was shot in the face Tuesday while he sat in a car in Puerto Rico and was taken off life support yesterday. A companion also was killed in what was an apparent ambush, and cocaine reportedly was found on the scene.

He embraced the persona of the "Macho Man" with the same relish that Ali boasted that he was "The Greatest," but there was a difference between them.

When he was growing up, Camacho was always getting into trouble of some kind. He claimed to have been expelled from half a dozen schools by the time he was 15. He had served time in jail by the time he was 17, and the self–professed "gutter kid" brought the behavior he had learned to the ring.

He was often criticized for using dirty tricks in the ring, but he was also capable of extraordinary things — like the time Julio Cesar Chavez won a brutal decision over him 20 years ago. Chavez was on a mission to knock out Camacho, but Camacho took everything that was thrown at him and was still standing at the end — "snarling through the blood," wrote Sports Illustrated's Pat Putnam.

Ironically, street crime did play a role in Ali's decision to take up boxing. At the age of 12, Ali had a brand–new bicycle, which was stolen when he left it unattended, prompting him to rant about what he would do to the thief if he caught him.

Ali was encouraged to "learn something about fighting," and Ali had found his path in life.

I always felt Camacho had more in common with Mike Tyson than Muhammad Ali.

Thanksgiving Ain't What It Used to Be

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The Nebraska–Oklahoma game on Thanksgiving in 1971
was called the "Game of the Century" by many.

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Today is Thanksgiving Day, a day when traditional football rivalries were renewed in days of old.

Things have changed — not so much in the NFL, where the Lions and Cowboys continue to host holiday games as they have for decades, but in the college ranks. When I was a child, Oklahoma and Nebraska played their annual grudge match on or around Thanksgiving every year. Here in Texas, the Longhorns and Aggies faced off every year — and continued to do so until this season.

Sure, there are some rivalries that are still played during the four–day Thanksgiving weekend.

Mississippi State and Ole Miss will play the "Egg Bowl," as always. Alabama will play Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Georgia and Georgia Tech will square off in the latest edition of "Clean, Old–Fashioned Hate." Michigan will play Ohio State. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will renew the "Bedlam Series." Notre Dame and Southern Cal will face each other. Florida will play Florida State.

Yes, sir, still lots of good rivalries — but some of the best are gone. And none of the ones that remain are played on Thanksgiving — at least, not this year.

That's a shame.

Idle: #7 Kansas State

Today

• TCU at #18 Texas, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: When I was growing up, watching this game qualified as a waste of time. (But watching it was never an option unless you were a student on the home campus because, in those pre–cable days, the TCU–Texas game was never televised.)
  
  Long before the day I enrolled in elementary school through my college days (including my graduate school days) and beyond, Texas and TCU played each other every year as members of the Southwest Conference — and Texas rarely lost. More often than not, it was a blowout. More often than not, TCU didn't score — or didn't score much.
  
  But times — and circumstances — have changed. The teams are back in the same conference, and although TCU has struggled this season, this isn't your father's Horned Frogs. They are more competitive than they used to be. They've even played in the Rose Bowl (won it, too).
  
  Of course, Texas has played in Pasadena recently, too — twice, in fact, with victories in both. A trip to the Rose Bowl won't be on the line tonight, but TCU would like to win in Austin for the first time since 1967.
  
  The Frogs might just do it, too. They have the 16th–best defense in the nation and should be capable of stopping Texas' 30th–ranked offense. TCU's offense is, at best, average (57th in the country), but Texas' defense (84th in the country) isn't even that good.
  
  It will probably be regarded as an upset, but I will pick TCU.

Friday

• Ohio at #23 Kent State, 10 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is really an interesting series.
  
  The schools have played each other every year for the last 50 years, and Ohio has won 62% of the time.
  
  Recent history hasn't been favorable for Kent, either. The Bobcats have mirrored that all–time winning percentage in the last 16 years, going 10–6 against the Flashes. Of course, Kent has won more games than it lost only once in the last quarter of a century.
  
  But history is changing, as Michael J. Fox said in "Back to the Future." Kent is 10–1 this year, and the Flashes are already assured of their best record ever, even if they lose to Ohio again.
  
  The numbers suggest that might happen. Ohio (8–3) is rated higher on both sides of the ball, and that includes Ohio's season–opening win over Penn State. On the surface, Kent's record is gaudier, but the Flashes' only loss was to Kentucky, a 2–9 football bottom feeder in the SEC.
  
  I think Ohio will win in an upset.
• #17 Nebraska at Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: When I was a child, Nebraska frequently finished its regular season with a big Thanksgiving Day game against Oklahoma.
  
  That tradition gradually gave way to the Nebraska–Colorado game, which stopped being played when the schools left the Big 12 for other pastures.
  
  Now, the Cornhuskers' season finale is with Iowa — or, at least, that's what it has been in Nebraska's first two seasons in the Big Ten. I don't know if it will become the holiday tradition Oklahoma–Nebraska was, but it has some potential. After all, Iowa may be 4–7, but the Hawkeyes have been successful far more often than not in the last 10 years. It seems like simply a matter of time before they return to prominence.
  
  This year, though, it appears to be no contest. Nebraska's offense and defense both rank in the Top 20. Iowa's defense is #60, and that is the Hawkeyes' strong point. Their offense ranks #110.
  
  I pick Nebraska to improve to 10–2.
• #24 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan, noon (Central) on ESPN3.com: These schools have met 25 times in the last 35 years, and Northern Illinois has owned the series, winning more than three–quarters of the time.
  
  When Eastern Michigan has the ball, the 100th–ranked offense will be trying to score against the 44th–best defense. As much of a mismatch as that appears to be, Eastern Michigan will be fielding the 115th defense against the nation's 15th–best offense.
  
  I think Northern Illinois should win easily.
• #8 LSU at Arkansas, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: They call this the battle for the Golden Boot, a trophy inspired by the physical maps of Louisiana and Arkansas.
  
  I don't think they've been calling it that all along, but it is an old rivalry, dating back to 1906. And, in recent years, it's been a competitive rivalry.
  
  It's also been friendly to the home fans lately. The last four meetings have been won by the home team.
  
  All time, the advantage belongs to LSU, and this season has leaned in that direction as well. LSU still has a slender chance to finish in a three–way tie for the SEC West title with Alabama and Texas A&M if the Tigers beat Arkansas — but, unlike recent years, the Tigers have no hope of playing for the national title.
  
  They still will need an upset by Auburn against Alabama on Saturday if they are to share the SEC West crown — and that isn't likely.
  
  But it will still be a possibility when LSU plays Arkansas.
  
  For Arkansas, though, it is the last game in a season that was expected to be so much different. The 4–7 Razorbacks lost their remaining chance of a bowl bid when they lost to Mississippi State last week, and all they will bring into Friday's game is pride.
  
  The numbers suggest that won't be enough to finish the season on a positive note. LSU has the fifth–best defense in the land, and I think it will be able to stop Arkansas' 54th–ranked offense. On the other side of the ball, it might be a fairly even match; Arkansas' 79th–ranked defense might give LSU's 68th–ranked offense a competitive game.
  
  But LSU appears likely to make the Razorbacks turn the ball over, and that means an LSU victory is probable.

Saturday

• #1 Notre Dame at Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Of all the schools that consider Notre Dame their rival — and there are many — Southern California is acknowledged by most to be Notre Dame's primary rival.
  
  
  
  Between them, Southern Cal and Notre Dame have produced more national titles, more Heisman Trophy winners and more All–Americans than any other rivalry, and, with the exception of the World War II years, they've squared off every year since Knute Rockne roamed the Notre Dame sidelines.
  
  Notre Dame leads the all–time series, but Southern Cal has dominated for the last decade, winning nine out of the last 10 meetings (I suppose, in a way, that makes up for that period from 1983 to 1995 when Notre Dame's only blemish against USC was a 17–17 tie in 1994).
  
  And Southern Cal's quarterback is guaranteeing a victory over the Irish this year.
  
  Not so fast, my friend.
  
  Notre Dame has the nation's sixth–best defense, which should make for some memorable clashes when the Irish are on the field with USC's 27th–ranked offense.
  
  When the Irish have the ball, it should be more competitive. Notre Dame is 50th in offense; USC is 58th in defense.
  
  But the Notre Dame defense has been remarkably resilient. I pick Notre Dame to win the game.
• Auburn at #2 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: For three straight years, the winner of this game has gone on to win the national championship.
  
  You might think that Auburn tends to win when it has a Heisman winner (or, at least, a Heisman contender) on its roster; however, the Tigers didn't win the year Pat Sullivan won the Heisman (1971) or the year Bo Jackson won it (1985), but they did beat Alabama the year Cam Newton won the Heisman (2010).
  
  With no one like Sullivan, Jackson or Newton in the backfield, the numbers suggest that Alabama's second–ranked defense will toy with Auburn's 112th–ranked offense.
  
  Auburn's defense (#74 in the land) might be a little more competitive against Alabama's offense (#44), but I see no reason to think Alabama won't notch its eighth win in the last 11 meetings with Auburn.
• Georgia Tech at #3 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Georgia has won the last three contests in a series known simply as "Clean, Old–Fashioned Hate."
  
  In fact, Georgia Tech has won only once (2008) in the last 11 contests. And there is little, if any, reason to think Tech will log its second win over the Bulldogs since 2001.
  
  Both teams will play in their conference championship games next weekend. The 6–5 Yellow Jackets will take on #10 Florida State, and Georgia will face the representative of the SEC West. Presumably, that will be #2 Alabama — but that has not been determined yet.
  
  The numbers favor Georgia. The Bulldogs' offense is 25th in the nation and should have the upper hand with Tech's #61 defense. When Tech has the ball, the Yellow Jackets' #28 offense should have its hands full with Georgia's #20 defense.
  
  Georgia has beaten Tech four of the last five times they have played in Athens, and I pick Georgia to win this one as well.
• #20 Michigan at #4 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: I think most people would call this a classic football rivalry. And it seems fitting that both teams are ranked.
  
  That hasn't always been the case, but it sure seemed to be when I was growing up.
  
  
  
  Historically, Michigan leads the series, but Ohio State has more than made up for it in the last 75 years. Michigan still leads the series overall, but the Buckeyes bounced back, especially in the Woody Hayes era.
  
  Well, that's what happened in the past. What do the numbers tell us about this year?
  
  The elite units for both teams are on defense, and of the two, Michigan's is ranked higher (#12) than Ohio State's (#38). Neither offense has been overly impressive. Ohio State's is ranked higher (#45) than Michigan's (#67).
  
  That points to a close, low–scoring contest, and my thoughts turn to other factors, such as the home field advantage (Ohio State has won five in a row at home against Michigan) and motivation.
  
  Ohio State is unbeaten but also prohibited from playing for the conference title — and that could be all the motivation the Buckeyes need. Michigan could play for the conference crown if Nebraska loses to Iowa on Friday — and the outcome of that game will be known before Ohio State and Michigan kick off — but it is unknown right now.
  
  In what may be regarded as an upset, I will pick Michigan and its defense to prevail.
• #5 Oregon at #16 Oregon State, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: You might not know it from Oregon's success in recent years, but as recently as 2007, Oregon State led the all–time series.
  
  Then Oregon started its current four–game winning streak and seized the lead. And with the fourth–best offense in the country, you have to figure that Oregon will be favored to put some points on the board — even though Oregon State's defense is ranked #26.
  
  The Pac–12 has been known for its offenses over the years so I'll go with the flashy offense in this matchup and pick Oregon to win.
• #6 Florida at #10 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Seems like old times.
  
  Well, not quite. I mean, it's great for this rivalry that both teams are in the Top 10 — but 15 years ago or so, both of these teams would have been in the Top Two.
  
  In the tradition of great Southern defenses, both schools Florida State has the top–ranked defense in the nation, and Florida has the fourth–ranked unit. But Florida State's offense (#14 in the nation) seems much better–prepared to face a Top 10 defense than Florida's (#104).
  
  The good news for the Florida offense is that banged–up QB Jeff Driskel is slated to rejoin the team but may not play.
  
  Regardless, I'll take Florida State at home.
• Missouri at #9 Texas A&M, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Recent history favors Missouri in this game. The Tigers have won five of the six games the schools have played in the last 10 years.
  
  All eyes will be on Johnny (Football) Manziel, the freshman phenom who has led the Aggies to their #5 ranking in offense and will be making his case for the Heisman Trophy.
  
  The Aggies won't wind up in the SEC Championship game, but they'll finish strongly as Texas A&M should have little trouble with Missouri.
• #11 Stanford at #15 UCLA, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If everything happens just so, this could be a preview of the Pac–12 title game.
  
  UCLA has already clinched its division, and Stanford, with its win over Oregon last week, could be the Bruins' opponent.
  
  That is highly unlikely — but only because Oregon probably will turn back Oregon State today. Stanford and UCLA should know the outcome of that game before they kick off their own.
  
  In the past, UCLA has had the advantage in the series, but Stanford has won the last three contests. It is worth remembering, though, that, when Stanford beat UCLA in Los Angeles in 2010, it was the first time the Cardinal had beaten the Bruins there since 1996.
  
  In the tradition of Pac–12 powers, UCLA does have a Top 20 offense (#16) — but Stanford has a Top 20 defense (#18). That sure sounds a lot more appealing than the matchup that will occur when Stanford's offense (#85 in the nation) takes the field against UCLA's defense (#80).
  
  I expect this to be a close game, but I'll go with the home team, UCLA.
• #13 South Carolina at #12 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I really have to give South Carolina credit.
  
  The Gamecocks lost their star running back, but they have persevered and enter this game with a 9–2 record and a three–game winning streak. But the three teams this squad has beaten in that winning streak (Tennessee, Arkansas, Wofford) are not as good as the team they will face on Saturday.
  
  South Carolina has won three straight against Clemson, but the Gamecocks have really struggled at Clemson, where they trail in the all–time series, 16–9–1.
  
  The marquee matchup in this game will come when Clemson's sixth–ranked offense is on the field against South Carolina's 13th–ranked defense. Clemson's defense isn't anything special (#69 in the country), but it seems likely to be able to handle South Carolina's offense (ranked 93rd in the country).
  
  I expect Clemson to win.
• #22 Oklahoma State at #14 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I know from my years in Oklahoma that the "Bedlam Series," as the athletic rivalry between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is known, attracts insane amounts of attention.
  
  When I lived in Norman, OU probably had its worst football seasons in at least a couple of decades, if not more. But Oklahoma State was probably worse, and the record in my four years there was two wins for OU, one win for OSU and one tie.
  
  
  
  (That, incidentally, was after the Barry Switzer era had ended. Under Switzer, OU fans probably took victories in the Bedlam Series for granted. After all, he was 15–1 against the Cowboys.)
  
  Nevertheless, people absolutely flocked to the games. In Okie hearts, only two games really matter on the annual football schedule — the Texas game and the OSU game. Nebraska used to be a rival until the Cornhuskers departed for the Big Ten.
  
  Both schools have had better football teams in the years since I left Oklahoma. This year, OSU is ranked third in offense, and OU is ranked 11th. Defense has not been either team's strongest point, but OU is ranked 41st and OSU is ranked 54th.
  
  I'm inclined to give Oklahoma the edge — the Sooners are at home, they've beaten OSU seven of the last nine times they have met in Norman, and their defense is better than OSU's.
• Connecticut at #19 Louisville, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: Not surprisingly, Louisville leads the series, 5–3 — largely on the strength of a 3–1 mark at home.
  
  For a 4–6 team, Connecticut is in the Top 10 in defense (#9). Louisville (9–1) is ranked #32. Offense has been neither team's strength this season, but Louisville's (#42) has been far better than Connecticut's (#109).
  
  Most of the time, teams score on offense and, considering that Louisville's has been so much more effective than Connecticut's, I'll pick Louisville to win.
• #21 Rutgers at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Historically, this series has belonged to Pittsburgh — except for the last seven games, five of which have been won by Rutgers.
  
  But 8–1 Rutgers need not be cocky about facing 4–6 Pittsburgh. Records can be deceiving. Rutgers' only loss came against Kent State (which lost to lowly Kentucky in September), and Pittsburgh took Notre Dame to triple overtime before finally losing.
  
  Both defenses are ranked higher than the teams' offenses. Rutgers' defense is 14th in the nation (Pittsburgh's is 39th). On offense, Pittsburgh is ranked 58th, and Rutgers is ranked 96th.
  
  These teams have seldom played in November; when they have played this late in November — and they've only played on or after Nov. 20 twice before — Pittsburgh usually wins.
  
  So, in what is likely to be seen as an upset, I pick Pittsburgh.
• Idaho at #25 Utah State, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN–Plus: Idaho's only win this season came against New Mexico State.
  
  Utah State, on the other hand, pounded New Mexico State, and its only two losses were by extremely thin margins to Wisconsin and BYU.
  
  Utah State is ranked #21 on both offense and defense. Idaho, on the other hand, doesn't make the Top 100 in either category.
  
  I feel safe in predicting that Utah State will win comfortably.
• #25 Mississippi State at Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Known as the Egg Bowl, Mississippi State has won five of the last seven contests.
  
  But their victory in Oxford in 2010 was the Bulldogs' first since 1998.
  
  The series dates back to 1901, but only since 1927 has it been known as the "Battle for the Golden Egg." And that is what the winning team receives — a trophy shaped like a golden egg.
  
  For many years, the teams played in Jackson, a more centrally located site (and more of a neutral one, too), but the series was moved back to the campuses in 1991. Ole Miss leads the series overall, but Mississippi State has a 12–9 advantage since the series returned to the campuses.
  
  Mississippi State also was 12–6 against Ole Miss when they met in Jackson every year from 1973 to 1990, so it can be reasonably said that Mississippi State has dominated the series for the last four decades.
  
  The numbers from 2012 suggest that this isn't likely to change on Saturday.
  
  I do think the game will be close. But the highest–ranked unit in the game is Mississippi State's defense (#45). It should be adequately challenged by Ole Miss' offense (#53).
  
  Mississippi State's offense (#68) should be similarly challenged by Ole Miss' defense (#57).
  
  That makes me think turnovers will decide the outcome, and Mississippi State has been far better in turnover margin than Ole Miss.
  
  Consequently, I will go with Mississippi State.

Last week: 16–5

Season: 190–49

A Play to Remember

---

---

Thirty years ago today, I was here in Dallas, covering the Arkansas–SMU game for the newspaper for which I was working. I was only a few months removed from college, and covering a big football game like that at Texas Stadium was a huge deal for me.

That weekend, I stayed with my parents, who were planning to attend the game with some friends. And, because I was about to observe my birthday later that week, we had to do birthday type stuff during that visit, too — like eating cake.

My point is that there was a lot going on that day — and I completely missed seeing the biggest moment of the day until several hours after it happened.

When I saw it, though, I knew it was one of those clips that would live forever in the sports world.

I am talking about "The Play" — the multilateral kickoff return on the final play of the 1982 California–Stanford game. For more than a century now, that Bay area grudge match has been called the "Big Game," but it may never have been bigger or had a bigger finish that it did 30 years ago today.

Call it the "Big Play."

John Elway had already led Stanford down the field for the field goal that appeared to put Stanford in front for good, 20–19. Eight seconds remained on the clock, and Cal's announcer cryptically told his listeners, "Only a miracle can save the Bears now."

And a miracle is precisely what happened.

Stanford squibkicked the ball. After a lot of scrambling and at least four laterals, Kevin Moen took the ball into the end zone for the winning score, dodging members of the Stanford band who had been prematurely celebrating.

He couldn't dodge the trombone player, though. (Last month, Kelli Anderson shared her memories of being in Stanford's band that afternoon with SI.com's readers.)

Most of the people I have heard speak about fantastic finishes and the history of the Stanford–Cal game seem to agree that "The Play" was the most memorable of them all.

And it may have been.

It was certainly the most costly for Elway. It always seemed likely to me that "The Play" cost Elway the Heisman Trophy less than a month later to Georgia's Herschel Walker. Being a senior, he never had another chance to win it.

"The Play" also cost him what would have been the only bowl bid of his collegiate career; nevertheless, he was taken first by Baltimore in the draft, then traded to Denver, where Elway eventually led the Broncos to five Super Bowls — and two Super Bowl titles.

If most think "The Play" was one of the most exciting finishes ever in college football, then there are some, writes Vytas Mazeika in the San Jose Mercury News, who don't even think it is one of the top finishes in the history of the "Big Game."

But the Big Play was still big.

All Shook Up

---

---

The college football landscape shifted last weekend when Texas A&M upset the top–ranked team in the nation, Alabama.

And some Aggie hearts beat a little faster at the thought of playing in the SEC Championship game next month — but the fact is that Alabama, which is still the highest–ranked team in the SEC, almost certainly will be playing for the conference title.

Alabama has only one conference game remaining — against 2–8 Auburn in the 71st edition of the Iron Bowl next Saturday. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but the notion that this Auburn team might hand Alabama its second conference loss is just a little far–fetched, it seems to me.

However, just to play devil's advocate, let's say that Auburn pulls off an upset. That could mean a tie in the SEC West with either Texas A&M or LSU or both. That much isn't clear yet. A&M might stumble against Missouri, and LSU might falter against Ole Miss or Arkansas. Neither is likely, but they remain possible until the games are played.

What would be clear is that the SEC's streak of six consecutive national titles will end.

That may be the case, anyway. Top–ranked Oregon may be playing for the national title in January, but the Ducks must beat three straight ranked teams to get there.

Kansas State might be able to punch its ticket for the January showdown in its last two games, but that remains to be seen — as it does for the nation's third–ranked team, Notre Dame.

The next couple of weeks promise to be very interesting.

Idle: #18 Texas, #20 Louisville

Today

• #14 Stanford at #1 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I know there is a lot of talk on the West Coast these days about Oregon possibly playing for the national championship.
  
  Such talk was going on even before Alabama lost to Texas A&M last weekend, but now that Oregon is in the top spot, I suppose it has accelerated.
  
  Certainly, Alabama's loss put additional pressure on the Ducks, who were sure to be feeling more stress this week, anyway, with their upcoming game against #14 Stanford — and, if the Ducks win that one, there will be even more pressure when they face their in–state rivals from Oregon State the following week.
  
  Then, of course, if the Ducks win those two games, there will be the pressure of the Pac–12 Championship game, which figures to be against the winner of today's game between USC and UCLA.
  
  Neither Kansas State nor Notre Dame will have to play in a conference championship game, but the Irish will have to play #21 Southern Cal on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
  
  In fact, K–State may have the easiest road to the national championship game of the top three. After facing Baylor this weekend, the Wildcats have the next week off before closing the season against #18 Texas. (Not that beating Texas will be easy, but at least the Wildcats will get to face the Longhorns on their home turf.)
  
  But back to the Oregon–Stanford game ...
  
  The historical record suggests that Stanford would be a lot better off playing this game at home where the Cardinal have beaten the Ducks nearly 63% of the time. When the game has been played in Eugene, the Ducks have been victorious more than half the time.
  
  Oregon has by far the better offense. Ranked third in the country, it is light years ahead of Stanford's 84th–ranked offense.
  
  It's not entirely bleak for Stanford, though. The Cardinal defense may pose the stiffest challenge that Oregon will face in Pac–12 play this year (even though the Oregon State game is looming next week).
  
  But I still think Oregon will prevail at home.
• #2 Kansas State at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Well, even though KSU is undefeated and Baylor is just barely flirting with the .500 mark, this might not be quite so easy for the Wildcats.
  
  KSU is 4–0 at home against Baylor, but the Wildcats are just 3–2 at Waco — and Baylor has beaten K–State the last two times they have played there.
  
  The Bears have the better offense by far. Baylor is #2 in the nation in that category (compared to K–State at #47). But defense, they say, wins championships, and the Wildcats' 34th–ranked defense is much better than Baylor's (#120).
  
  I figure KSU will have its ups and downs against Baylor's offense — but when the Wildcats have the ball, they almost can't help being productive against the Baylor defense. Only one of Baylor's 10 opponents has failed to score at least 23 points, and most have scored at least 35. Kansas State, on the other hand, has scored 44 points or more six times this season.
  
  (Some of those points were scored by the defense, but most of them were scored on offense.)
  
  It seems obvious to me that Kansas State will win this game.
• Wake Forest at #3 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams met for the first time last season, and Notre Dame, en route to an 8–5 mark, won the game, 24–17.
  
  That game was played at Wake Forest. This time, the teams meet in South Bend.
  
  As I mentioned, Notre Dame has the challenge of facing USC next week, but, as long as the Irish don't overlook the 5–5 Demon Deacons, they ought to be undefeated when they face the Trojans.
  
  After all, Notre Dame's eighth–ranked defense should dispose of Wake Forest's 111th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has been adequate but not great, Wake Forest's defense appears ill–equipped to stop it.
  
  Notre Dame should win.
• Western Carolina at #4 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I can't understand why anyone would want to televise this game — but, for some reason, many teams in the Top 25 are facing non–Division 1–A opponents this weekend — and, barring any extremely unforeseen developments, they should have no trouble.
  
  One would think that Alabama, with the second–best defense in the land, would be unimpressed with Western Carolina. I fully expect Alabama to win.
• Georgia Southern at #5 Georgia: This game has a lot in common with the Alabama game — one of the best SEC teams is playing at home against a non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Unless something really unexpected happens, I believe Georgia will win.
• #6 Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams almost always have winning records when they face each other.
  
  And Ohio State almost always wins.
  
  The Buckeyes have been much more successful at home, but they've been successful against Wisconsin wherever the game has been played. At Wisconsin, Ohio State is 25–11–2 — but the Badgers have won two of the last three games that were played there.
  
  And logic suggests that, if Wisconsin can make it three of four, the Badgers (who would then be 8–3) will return to the Top 25.
  
  I think it should be a good game. Ohio State has the better offense, but Wisconsin's defense currently ranks in the Top 20 nationally — and should be up to the task of stopping the Buckeyes.
  
  I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Wisconsin in a mild upset.
• Jacksonville State at #7 Florida: Like the Alabama and Georgia games, I see no reason why the home team should lose to this non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Florida should win easily.
• Ole Miss at #8 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Known as the "Magnolia Bowl," this rivalry dates back to the 19th century.
  
  Its heyday came in the 1950s and 1960s, when both teams brought lofty rankings and winning records into their annual clashes (they even met in the Sugar Bowl once).
  
  In a sort of general view of sports history, not much has changed for LSU, which is ranked eighth in the land, but Ole Miss (5–5) has struggled.
  
  Ole Miss has the better offense, but LSU's defense (#3 in the nation) seems well prepared for it.
  
  That — and home field, where LSU is 37–23–1 against Ole Miss — seems likely to propel LSU to victory.
• Sam Houston State at #9 Texas A&M: This must seem like a real breather to the Aggies, who have won eight of their last nine games (the exception being a five–point loss to LSU last month).
  
  And, after winning on the road against the top–ranked team in the nation last week, Texas A&M simply can't be impressed with Sam Houston State.
  
  A BCS bowl berth is possible for the Aggies if they keep their eyes on the prize, and I see no reason why they shouldn't do that today. Texas A&M should win this game.
• #10 Florida State at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much reason, frankly, for Maryland fans to watch this game — either in person or on TV.
  
  Historically, Florida State has won 20 of the 22 meetings between the schools and has never lost at home — so I guess there is one good thing about this game for Maryland fans. It's being played in College Park, not Tallahassee.
  
  It could be depressing for Terps fans when they have the ball. Maryland's offense is the worst in the land while Florida State's defense is the best. Things might be much better for Maryland when Florida State has the ball. The Seminoles are #11 in the country in offense, but the Terps, who are 16th in defense, might be able to stop them.
  
  One wonders, though, if the Terps might stop themselves. Statistically, Maryland's offense is –10 in turnovers, and the thought of cashing in on that and beefing up the defensive statistics must be motivating for FSU's defense.
  
  On the flip side, I wonder if Florida State can maintain its focus, knowing that its annual rivalry game with #7 Florida is only a week away.
  
  Can Maryland win? I doubt it. I pick Florida State.
• North Carolina State at #11 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When North Carolina State beat Clemson last year, it snapped a seven–game Clemson winning streak against the Wolfpack.
  
  But the 6–4 Wolfpack still have plenty to play for — like a more prestigious bowl appearance — and Clemson could well be distracted by next week's game with South Carolina.
  
  But if Clemson's offense (seventh in the nation) remains focused, it should be able to dominate N.C. State's defense (61st in the country) and give the Tigers the winning edge. I figure Clemson's defense (#57 in the land) is evenly matched with N.C. State's offense (#59).
  
  I pick Clemson.
• Wofford at #12 South Carolina: I really thought South Carolina would struggle after losing its marquee running back to an injury a few weeks ago.
  
  But the Gamecocks have persevered, and they should be 9–2 after beating this non–Division 1–A foe — if they don't start daydreaming about their game next week against #11 Clemson.
  
  I don't think they will. I think South Carolina will win.
• #13 Oklahoma at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It should be rather cold in West Virginia tonight.
  
  I used to live in Oklahoma so I know the OU players are accustomed to the cold weather, but this isn't like what they have been dealing with lately. It's going to be in the mid–50s (at best) during the day, and temperatures are expected to decline rapidly after the sun goes down.
  
  It's a modest series to date — only four games have been played — and the teams have never played in Morgantown so this will be a first — and a chilly one at that.
  
  The offenses are pretty even — OU is #16, West Virginia is #18 — so that means defenses probably will be decisive — and that is where OU (#20) has a huge edge over West Virginia (#110).
  
  I predict that Oklahoma will win.
• California at #15 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: I'm sure it must be tempting for the Beavers to overlook the Bears with the showdown with #1 Oregon coming up next week, but a loss to the Bears would knock Oregon State out of the running for the Pac–12 championship game.
  
  Well, they're probably out of the running for that, anyway, what with Stanford and Oregon playing each other today. Oregon is undefeated and Stanford only has one loss in Pac–12 play whereas Oregon State has two conference losses. Logic says the winner of the Oregon–Stanford game will represent the division in the conference championship game.
  
  But, as this day begins, a three–way tie at the top of the division is still mathematically possible and, if that happens, I don't know what the Pac–12's tiebreaker would be.
  
  If there is to be such a tie, two things must happen this week: Stanford must beat Oregon this afternoon and Oregon State must beat California tonight.
  
  I have already predicted that Stanford will not hold up its end of the bargain, but Oregon State has a significantly better defense than California. Both offenses are rather average so defense figures to dominate in this game.
  
  Consequently, I will pick Oregon State.
• Minnesota at #16 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I have found that many people mistakenly believe that, because Nebraska is a newcomer to the Big Ten, its series with most of the members of the conference are rather sparse.
  
  That may well be the case with some of the schools, but Nebraska has a long history with Minnesota. They've played 52 times — but last year, Nebraska's first in the Big Ten, was the first time the teams had faced each other in more than two decades.
  
  Nebraska's win in 2011 was its 15th straight against Minnesota. The Gophers haven't beaten the Cornhuskers since 1960, and it is hard to imagine 6–4 Minnesota topping an 8–2 Nebraska team that has lost only to #17 UCLA and #6 Ohio State.
  
  Especially since Nebraska enjoys such a huge advantage on offense (the Cornhuskers are #17 in the country while Minnesota is #96). Minnesota actually has the edge on defense, but it is narrow (Minnesota is #25; Nebraska is #28).
  
  On the strength of a superior offense and the home field advantage, I choose Nebraska.
• #21 USC at #17 UCLA, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was a kid, the USC–UCLA game was one of the top rivalry games that was televised every year — usually during the Thanksgiving season.
  
  USC usually won the game as it has throughout history (the Trojans have won about 61% of the time, and they've won 12 of the last 13) — but the thing that should concern this USC football team about this UCLA team is that UCLA has the #13 offense in the nation — and the third best in the Pac–12, a conference that is known for flashy offenses.
  
  Southern Cal has a pretty good offense, too (#28), and logic says it shouldn't have much trouble with UCLA's #75 defense. But neither should UCLA's offense have too much difficulty with USC's #58 defense.
  
  It seems to me to be a matter of which offense executes its game plan the most effectively. I'm guessing it will be UCLA.
• Utah State at #19 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Here's something I'll bet you didn't know — Louisiana Tech has the top–ranked offense in the nation.
  
  OK, maybe you did know it, but even if Utah State knows it, it can't be very encouraging — especially since Louisiana Tech has won six of the last seven meetings between the schools.
  
  Tech (9–1) should not take the 8–2 Aggies lightly, though. That Bulldog offense will be taking on the 12th–best defense in the nation. And Tech's offense better come through because Tech has one of the worst defenses in the nation while Utah State's offense is 28th.
  
  I pick Utah State.
• #22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: This series dates back to 1980, but it has really only been a regular thing since the teams became conference rivals.
  
  It's one of those series that goes in waves. Back in the 1980s, Rutgers was the regular winner, then they played a couple of times in what was, in hindsight, a transitional period in the 1990s (split decision), and Cincinnati has been the dominant program in the early 21st century (although Rutgers did snap a five–game Bearcat winning streak in the series last year).
  
  If it is true that defense wins championships — or, at least, wins games — Rutgers, with its 14th–ranked defense, should have no trouble with Cincinnati (98th in the nation in offense).
  
  Cincinnati's defense (#44) might be able to compete with Rutgers' offense (#33), but if the Rutgers defense forces Cincinnati to commit turnovers (and Rutgers has been particularly good at making the other team fumble the ball away this season), it really might not matter what happens when Rutgers has the ball.
  
  I pick Rutgers.
• #23 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This really should be an entertaining game.
  
  Both offenses are in the Top 10. OSU's is slightly better, but it will have the challenge of facing Tech's 18th–ranked defense.
  
  Tech's three losses have been to ranked teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas). OSU has lost to Texas and K–State, too; OU is coming up next week. The Bedlam Series is always a big attention grabber in Oklahoma, and OSU has been good enough — and successful enough — in recent years (the Cowboys snapped an eight–game losing streak to the Sooners last year) to make folks in Oklahoma wonder if OSU can win two in a row against OU for only the seventh time in the last century.
  
  The Cowboys can't afford to be distracted by such thoughts this week — but my guess is they will. Texas Tech in what may well be regarded as an upset.
• Iowa at #23 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series is more than a century old, and Michigan has been in the driver's seat practically from the beginning.
  
  Well, Iowa did win the first encounter back in 1900 — but then won only one of the next 16. A pattern was set.
  
  Iowa fans are not accustomed to experiencing losing seasons, but the prospect is suddenly very real, now that the 4–6 Hawkeyes are on a four–game losing streak and must defeat both Michigan today and #16 Nebraska next week to finish 6–6.
  
  Michigan's offense hasn't been too horrifying, but the Wolverines' defense, which is 11th in the nation, has been.
  
  And it is because of the defense that I pick Michigan to win.
• #25 Kent State at Bowling Green, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have faced each other every year since 1962, and Bowling Green has thoroughly dominated the series, 40–9.
  
  Only recently has Kent made a series of it, winning the last two and three of the last six.
  
  And Kent (9–1) might make it three in a row with its superior offense.
  
  But Bowling Green (7–3) has the sixth–best defense in the country. The Falcons have only given up 20 points or more three times — but they have lost on all three occasions.
  
  I tend to favor good defenses, especially when the weather turns cold — as it is sure to be in Ohio this weekend.
  
  Consequently, I pick Bowling Green.

Last week: 17–4

Season: 174–44

National Championship Dreamin'

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Alabama's Bear Bryant (left) and Notre Dame's Ara Parseghian
faced each other for the national championship on Dec. 31, 1973.

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At this point, of course, no one knows who will play in the BCS National Championship game in January.

It's logical to assume that the top–ranked team, Alabama, will be in it — but Texas A&M might have something to say about that this Saturday.

Beyond that, I suppose, it is a matter of whimsy — but it is something in which every college football fan engages at some point in the season, and, with only a few weeks remaining in this one, most fans are already thinking about who might be playing for the national title.

It isn't hard to imagine Oregon playing in the big game. After all, the Ducks have been in the national championship conversation for the last few years.

Nor does it require a great deal of imagination to picture teams like Georgia or Florida State or LSU playing for all the marbles — although teams with two losses (like LSU) really need a lot of things to happen just so if they are to have a prayer.

Personally, I've been fantasizing about Notre Dame playing Alabama.

When I was a boy, those teams played for the national title in the 1973 Sugar Bowl, and there were those who said Notre Dame's 24–23 victory was one of the greatest games ever played.

That was quite a compliment, given all the other great games that were played between great teams led by great coaches over the years — but especially in those days.

And what else would one expect in a game that had Bear Bryant on one sideline and Ara Parseghian on the other?

Idle: #5 Ohio State

Today

• #8 Florida State at Virginia Tech, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN Before the season began, this was probably viewed as a marquee November matchup. The teams are perennial Top 25 squads who have met in ACC title games twice since 2005.
  
  Florida State is ranked and has hopes of landing a BCS bowl berth, but Virginia Tech has staggered to a 4–5 record.
  
  Frankly, Florida State just looks too powerful. The Seminoles have the fifth–ranked offense and the top–ranked defense.
  
  I don't think Virginia Tech will be able to compete. I pick Florida State.

Saturday

• #15 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: I have a friend who is a graduate of Texas &M, and he's been pointing to this game all season — initially, with dread, but, as the Aggies have gathered momentum, his mood has improved.
  
  "I guess we're the real deal," he said in an email following A&M's victory over Mississippi State last weekend.
  
  Well, this will be the ultimate test. Top–ranked Alabama has had the top–ranked defense most of the season — until it was replaced by Florida State recently. But the Crimson Tide is ranked second. (The Aggies, who have sometimes shown glimpses of their defensive DNA — going back to the "Wrecking Crew" of a few decades ago, are ranked 46th in that category.)
  
  The Aggies' offense, though, might give 'Bama its stiffest challenge to date. A&M is fifth in offense (Alabama is 48th).
  
  I expect a close game, but I'll give home team Alabama the nod.
• #2 Oregon at California, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Cal has a five–game edge in the series, but Oregon is 11–4 in the last 15 meetings. And, frankly, it's hard for me to see how Cal can be competitive in this game.
  
  Oregon has the fourth–best offense in the nation (Cal's is 64th). In a conference known historically for its offense, that is saying something. The Ducks also have a decent defense, ranked 50th (which is better than Cal at #73).
  
  Someone may prevent the Ducks from playing in the national title game, but I doubt it will be the Bears. Oregon will win this game.
• #3 Kansas State at TCU: It's been a quarter of a century since these teams met, but a lot of things have changed.
  
  Both teams were bottom feeders when they last met, but K–State may well be playing for a national title at the end of the season, and TCU was in the national championship conversation not so long ago.
  
  If a few things had gone right for TCU this year, in fact, this game could have been a Top 25 showdown. Even so, unranked TCU has had some pretty good moments — like the Frogs' double–overtime win at West Virginia last week — and may yet be back in the rankings.
  
  (K–State won at West Virginia, too, but didn't come close to requiring an extra period to do it.)
  
  This game has real potential to be a trap for KSU. The Wildcats have a narrow advantage over the Frogs on offense, but the Frogs have a somewhat wider advantage on defense.
  
  It is worth noting, though, that KSU has scored 50 points or more in five of its nine games. TCU has exceeded 50 points twice — and once was in triple overtime.
  
  I think Kansas State will win, but the Wildcats have to be careful that they don't look ahead to their games with Baylor and Texas. TCU can be dangerous.
• #4 Notre Dame at Boston College, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: A funny thing almost happened to Notre Dame en route to the national championship game. The Irish almost lost to upset–minded Pittsburgh last week, but they survived a real thriller in overtime.
  
  Now the Irish must face 2–7 Boston College. It would be tempting to take BC lightly, but the memory of the Pitt game is too fresh and the goal of an unbeaten season is too close to fruition.
  
  Notre Dame's 10th–ranked defense should have little trouble with BC's 90th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has struggled at times, it should be able to handle BC's 109th–ranked defense.
  
  Notre Dame should remain undefeated.
• #5 Georgia at Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams first met in 1892, and the series has become known as the "Deep South's oldest rivalry."
  
  And if Auburn could win the game, it would have 51 victories — the same number of victories Georgia has — in the series.
  
  But Georgia has won five of the last six games, and the teams are heading in different directions this season. Georgia is on course for a showdown with top–ranked Alabama in the SEC Championship game while Auburn is winless in SEC play.
  
  Georgia also enjoys decided advantages on both sides of the ball. Even the home field won't help Auburn in this one. I believe Georgia will win.
• Louisiana–Lafayette at #7 Florida, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: You know, I could go into all the reasons why Florida should win this game.
  
  But why bother? It should be obvious. Florida will win.
• #22 Mississippi State at #9 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is a tough assignment for LSU, coming off its emotional loss to Alabama last week.
  
  The twice–beaten Tigers are now out of the national championship picture and the conference championship picture — and they must face Mississippi State, also a recent loser to Alabama.
  
  On offense, there appears to be little difference between these two teams. LSU is ranked #71, Mississippi State is #73. That leads me to believe that the game will be decided by defense. And if that is the case, there seems to be no question that LSU, ranked third in that category, will have the edge. Mississippi State's defense is adequate, but it is not really comparable to LSU.
  
  LSU is 19–1 against Mississippi State since 1992 and hasn't lost to the Bulldogs at home since 1991. The Tigers also haven't lost two games in a row since the 2008 season — and that was the first time they lost two in a row since 2002. It just doesn't happen.
  
  I feel safe in picking LSU to win.
• Maryland at #10 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have been playing annually since 1952, and success has come in waves for both.
  
  The waves were a little stronger and lasted a little longer until about a decade ago. Before the new millennium, it wasn't unusual for one team to roll up five straight wins or more against the other. Since 2000, though, the longest winning streak for either has been three, and two straight wins have been the norm.
  
  Clemson has won the last two meetings so recent history would suggest that it is Maryland's turn. And the Terps have won two of the last three games they have played at Clemson so it isn't as if this is an impossible assignment. In this series, Maryland has been almost as successful on the road as it has been at home.
  
  But Clemson has the nation's ninth–best offense — which should be challenged by Maryland's 11th–ranked defense. Maryland's big problem is its defense, which would be the worst in the land if not for Kentucky.
  
  When all is said and done, I think Clemson will prevail.
• #11 Louisville at Syracuse: There was a time in this series when Syracuse clearly had the upper hand, but, since 2003, Louisville has won six of eight contests.
  
  The most intriguing moments of the game seem likely to come when Syracuse's #26 offense takes the field against Louisville's #29 defense. But they might be just as evenly matched, although not as talented, when Louisville's #45 offense has the ball against Syracuse's #42 defense.
  
  I'm tempted to take Syracuse at home, but Louisville is unbeaten and Syracuse is 4–5. Louisville might get sloppy the week before the season finale against #24 Rutgers, but that is three weeks from now. I'll take Louisville.
• Arkansas at #12 South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: My alma mater returns to the Top 25 — but as a visitor.
  
  That's a far cry from what I expected. Based on what they had returning this year, I figured they would be in the Top 10 at this point in the season. I sure didn't expect them to be 4–5.
  
  While I was as horrified as anyone at the injury to Marcus Lattimore, I would be foolish not to recognize that it can only help the Hogs if he isn't in the lineup.
  
  Currently, Arkansas has the edge on offense. In spite of some dreadful early season performances, the offense seems to have mostly righted itself, and the Hogs enter this game ranked 46th in that category while South Carolina is 86th.
  
  But South Carolina has the #12 defense in the nation whereas Arkansas is #72.
  
  In the 20 times the teams have played since joining the SEC back in 1992, the Hogs lead the series, 13–7, but they've built their advantage at home. On the road, the teams are tied, 5–5.
  
  And, although it pains me to say, I think South Carolina will make it 6–5 at home.
• #13 Oregon State at #16 Stanford, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Oregon State is one of the Cinderella stories of the year.
  
  Oregon State was 8–16 in the last two seasons, but if the Beavers can defeat Stanford, they will have won as many games this season as they won in the last two combined.
  
  And they will set themselves up as the last realistic challenger to in–state rival Oregon in their Pac–12 division.
  
  But Stanford won't be an easy win for Oregon State. In a conference that is known for offense, these teams have been succeeding with good defense. Stanford's is ranked 15th, Oregon State's is ranked 30th.
  
  The Beavers have a much better offense than Stanford, but the defenses are the stars, and I think Stanford's will turn back the challenge.
• Baylor at #14 Oklahoma: In this series, the 20th time was the charm for Baylor.
  
  Baylor and Oklahoma played for the first time in 1973, and the Sooners won the first 19 games they played. But last year, Baylor finally got its first victory over Oklahoma as Robert Griffin III probably secured his Heisman Trophy with a 45–38 triumph in Waco.
  
  Well, RGIII is gone now, and the rematch will be in Norman, where the Sooners are 10–0 against the Bears.
  
  But Baylor is doing just fine on offense. In fact, the Bears are ranked #1 in the nation in total offense (the Sooners are 14th). But Oklahoma's defense, ranked 17th in the nation, may be better equipped to handle Baylor than Baylor is to handle OU. The Bears' defense is currently the worst in the nation.
  
  This ought to be an entertaining game, and I pick Oklahoma to win it.
• #17 UCLA at Washington State, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: UCLA leads the all–time series by more than 20 games.
  
  I'm inclined to think the Bruins will add to their advantage. They've won the last four meetings, and they've been better on both sides of the ball this season. I pick UCLA.
• Penn State at #18 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 15th time these teams have faced each other, and the winner will break a 7–7 tie in the all–time series.
  
  Both teams have been successful against the other at home. This year, Penn State's defense has been slightly better than Nebraska's. Nebraska, on the other hand, has been much more successful on offense. That, along with the home field, should lift Nebraska to victory.
• #19 Louisiana Tech at Texas State, 6 p.m. (Central) on Longhorn Network: I'm not sure why this game is being televised.
  
  I know nothing about Texas State, and I can't imagine why anyone would pick against Louisiana Tech in this game. I certainly won't.
• Iowa State at #19 Texas, 11 a.m. (Central) on Longhorn Network: This will be the 10th time that these teams have played, and Iowa State won only once — when they met in Austin two years ago.
  
  This time, there will be a certain emotion in the air as the Longhorns and their fans pay tribute to the late Darrell Royal, who died yesterday.
  
  Neither defense has been very impressive this season, but the Longhorns have been much better than Iowa State on offense. I don't think it matters, though. I expect Texas to prevail.
• Arizona State at #21 Southern Cal, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: Over the years, Southern Cal has won nearly two–thirds of its contests with Arizona State.
  
  The location of the game — Arizona or California — doesn't really matter although Southern Cal has had more of a tendency to win the home games than the road ones.
  
  In 2012, Southern Cal has the 25th–rated offense, but ASU isn't far behind in that category at #31.
  
  And the Sun Devils have a distinct advantage on defense, where they are #24 (compared to Southern Cal at #65).
  
  While it bucks the historical trend, I'll go with Arizona State.
• #23 Toledo at Akron: In the eight times these teams have met, Akron has won twice — but those wins bookended the other six.
  
  Akron won the last time these teams faced each other, on Nov. 5, 2008, ending a six–game losing streak.
  
  They seem pretty evenly matched. Both have had poor defensive units, and their offensive units are separated in the national rankings by fewer than 10 spots. It may be regarded as something of an upset, but I will pick Akron to win.
• Army at #24 Rutgers: Army has lost eight straight games to Rutgers, and, believe me, there is nothing I would like more than to be able to predict an underdog victory.
  
  And, believe it or not, Army actually has a higher–rated offense than Rutgers.
  
  But the Scarlet Knights have a Top 20 defense, and that should put them over the top. I take Rutgers.
• Kansas at #25 Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: In 13 previous contests, Kansas beat Texas Tech only once.
  
  But that unlikely victory came on the road. The Jayhawks beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock on Oct. 6, 2001.
  
  That doesn't seem likely to happen again. Kansas is 1–8, Tech is 6–3, and they're miles apart on both sides of the ball.
  
  I pick Texas Tech.

Last week: 16–3

Season: 157–40

A Giant Falls in Texas

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There were many giants in college football when I was growing up, and Darrell Royal was one of the largest figures.

He wasn't physically imposing — he always looked rather ordinary to me — but he was still intimidating. Maybe it was his reputation as a winner.

Or maybe it was his way with words.

---

"You dance with who brung ya."

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He was an honorable man, and he remained a beloved figure in Texas long after he left coaching.

My grandmother lived in Dallas most of her life, and there was a little Mexican restaurant about three blocks from her home. It was just a little family owned restaurant, not a franchise or anything like that, and the walls were filled with photos of Royal, many of which had been signed by him. Most of them said something like "To my friend [whatever his name was]. I always love to eat at your place when I'm in Dallas. Darrell Royal"

(I don't know if the owner and Royal really were friends or not. I once asked the cashier if the signatures were authentic, and she said they were, but I was never sure she understood my question. Her English wasn't very good, and the extent of my Spanish is that I can count to 10.)

His death today at the age of 88 truly marked the end of an era for me, even though it has been more than 30 years since he walked the sidelines — and even though he was my greatest nemesis when I was growing up.

One by one, the familiar faces from those days have been disappearing over the years, but Royal's death may be the biggest one yet from these parts. As Kirk Bohls writes in the Austin American–Statesman, Royal "became the biggest college football icon in a state that worships the sport."

Actually, a case could be made that Royal was the biggest football icon in Texas — period. Tom Landry may have surpassed him in popularity when he took the Dallas Cowboys to five Super Bowls in the 1970s, but in the 1960s, while Royal was winning national championships on the college level, people around here were talking about how Landry couldn't win "the big one" in the NFL.

I grew up in Arkansas, where the Razorbacks rule, and you just couldn't be an Arkansas fan without hating Texas. The annual football game between the schools was an event — even though it usually didn't end too well for Razorback fans. (I can count on one hand the number of Arkansas victories over Texas in the first 20 years of my life.)

As a result, there was a certain amount of resentment directed toward Royal. It seemed he always had the upper hand.

Arkansas fans knew Texas didn't have a better coach. Arkansas had Frank Broyles, who is justifiably regarded as a legend in the sport as well, but he might have been the most dominant coach in the Southwest Conference had it not been for Royal.

---

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They had both won national championships in the 1960s. But when they met in 1969's "Great Shootout," Texas fans were strutting with confidence about the success of the wishbone offense that Royal had pioneered with assistant coach Emory Bellard. Any thought Arkansas fans had of beating it, Texas fans said, was nothing more than dreaming the impossible dream.

Texas was to Arkansas what Muhammad Ali was to Joe Frazier or what Secretariat was to Sham — the ever–constant barrier to greater things.

And, for that, many Razorback fans could never forgive him.

But they always respected him.

Alabama, LSU Meet in National Title Rematch

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Alabama celebrated the Crimson Tide's 14th national title
after a 21–0 victory over LSU in New Orleans last January.

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The last time LSU and Alabama met on a football field, Alabama won the game, 21–0, and the national title.

That was in New Orleans — officially "neutral" territory — last January.

The last time the two teams met in Baton Rouge, in November 2010, the Tigers won, 24–21.

But that was the exception to the rule. Over the years, Alabama has compiled a 24–8–3 record at Tiger Stadium — which is actually better than the Tide's record against the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

However ...

Baton Rouge hasn't been that cozy for the Crimson Tide lately. Alabama has won only two of the last six games the teams have played there.

They first met in 1902, but the series was sporadic until about halfway through the 20th century. Alabama dominated things during Bear Bryant's tenure, and it seems to me the series lost a bit of its luster until about 25 years after Bryant retired — when Alabama hired former LSU head coach Nick Saban, setting up the first "Saban Bowl" in 2007.

Considering that Saban has won a couple of national titles at Alabama since that time, I guess this is just the latest installment of the "Saban Bowl."

And for you trivia buffs out there ...

Since we are only a few days away from Election Day, I thought it would be interesting to see if there are any historical trends. Actually, one trend over the years has been that Alabama and LSU played each other a Saturday or two following an election. It is only in the last couple of election years that the teams have played just before an election.

But, just for kicks, I thought it would be interesting to see what the series might be able to tell us.

Alabama and LSU have played every year since 1964. In that time, 12 presidential elections have been held. Republicans have won seven, Democrats have won five.

In those presidential election years, Alabama has won eight of the head–to–head matchups with LSU, and LSU has won four. While there are exceptions, it appears that the Democrat usually wins if Alabama defeats LSU, and the Republican usually wins if LSU defeats Alabama.

And, in every election since 1984, the Republican has won the presidency if LSU defeated Alabama, and the Democrat has won the presidency if Alabama defeated LSU.

Idle: #9 Florida State, #11 South Carolina

• #1 Alabama at #5 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: History favors the Crimson Tide in this series — wherever the game is played.
  
  But Alabama has also been better on both offense and defense. Considering that the Tide boasts the top–ranked defense in the nation and a quarterback who "does everything," in the words of his coach, it's hard to see how Alabama could lose.
  
  With a month to go in the season, it is still possible that LSU and Alabama could meet in a rematch for the national title, just as they did last year. But only if LSU wins this game — and that should give the Tigers some additional motivation.
  
  But I don't think LSU is going to win. My pick is Alabama.
• #2 Oregon at #18 USC, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Southern Cal has dominated this series — especially at home, where the Trojans are 24–6–1 against the Ducks.
  
  The Ducks did win the last time they visited the Trojans, but that was, well, the exception to the rule.
  
  Given their rankings, though, it would seem that the Trojans will need more than the home field advantage.
  
  Unfortunately, they lag behind the Ducks in both offense and defense — which makes me think the Ducks will once again buck the historical trend. I'm picking Oregon.
• Oklahoma State at #3 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Since they first met in 1917, Oklahoma State has won nearly two–thirds of the games played between these two schools.
  
  But not so much lately.
  
  Oh, sure, the Cowboys have won four of the last five. But K–State won nine in a row before that, and the Wildcats had won six straight at home before Oklahoma State won there in 2010.
  
  Honestly, I think this year's game could be a dandy. OSU has the top–ranked offense in the nation (KSU is ranked 43rd). Kansas State's 30th–ranked defense is better than Oklahoma State's (#43), but one wonders if it has what it takes to stop J.W. Walsh (the #11 passer in the land) and Joseph Randle (the #9 rusher).
  
  But I think Kansas State may be the most lightly regarded third–ranked team in recent memory. Look at what the Wildcats have done so far. They are undefeated through eight games, a schedule that has included trips to Oklahoma and West Virginia, and the remaining schedule includes (after today's game), trips to TCU and Baylor and a regular season–concluding home game against Texas.
  
  There aren't many breathers on Kansas State's schedule, but the Wildcats seem to keep each other emotionally balanced — especially at home, where they have seldom lost in recent years.
  
  I'll take Kansas State.
• Pittsburgh at #4 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: A week after what had to be an emotional road win over Oklahoma, Notre Dame faces Pittsburgh, a team the Irish have beaten 46 times.
  
  But the series (recently, at least) has been nothing if not competitive. Seven of the last eight meetings were decided by a single score.
  
  My guess is that, if today's game is that competitive, it's likely to be a low–scoring game dominated by the defenses. And Notre Dame, with its 11th–ranked defense, gets the nod.
• Illinois at #6 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The good news for the Illini in this series is they have actually fared better on the road (where they have won about 39% of the time) than at home (where they have won about 25% of the time). In fact, Illinois has won three of the last five games that were played in Columbus.
  
  But there is plenty of bad news — on so many levels. For one, Ohio State has dominated the series (winning about 67% of the time). For another, the Buckeyes are 12–3 against Illinois since 1995. For yet another, Ohio State has won the last four in a row.
  
  And one more thing, as Columbo used to say ...
  
  Ohio State's offense (ranked 45th in the land) is infinitely better than Illinois' (109th).
  
  Illinois' defense is ranked higher than Ohio States's, but the difference is so modest (45th and 59th, respectively) that it seems likely that offense will determine the winner. I think it will be Ohio State.
• Ole Miss at #7 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: With Georgia's win over Florida last week, the Bulldogs are in the driver's seat in the SEC East.
  
  All they really have to do is win their last two SEC games — against Ole Miss and Auburn — and they will be in the SEC Championship game for the second consecutive year.
  
  That shouldn't be too much of a challenge as far as the Auburn game is concerned. The Tigers, who won the national title a couple of years ago with Cam Newton at quarterback, have fallen on hard times (their only win this year was in overtime against Louisiana–Monroe).
  
  But Ole Miss might be another matter. The 5–3 Rebels are a respectable 47th in both offense and defense. They aren't ranked ahead of the Bulldogs in either category, but they could be capable of giving Georgia some fits. QB Bo Wallace has completed about two–thirds of his passes, and Jeff Scott is averaging better than five yards per carry.
  
  Georgia, however, holds the historical advantage. The Bulldogs have won more than 70% of their encounters with Ole Miss, including their last nine games.
  
  But Ole Miss' last win over Georgia came in Athens in 1996. The Rebs have struggled on the road against Georgia, though, and the Bulldogs might have enough momentum to overwhelm them this time.
  
  I'm inclined to think Georgia will win. But I also think it will be an entertaining game, and I plan to watch it.
• Missouri at #8 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams have played each other only once before — and that was nearly 50 years ago, in the 1966 Sugar Bowl.
  
  It was a good game, probably better than the one that will be played today. Neither team has been particularly impressive on offense this year (Florida is 100th nationally, Missouri is 109th) so if you like offense, this game probably isn't for you.
  
  But the Gators have the sixth–best defense in the nation, and Missouri's defense is ranked 25th so I would expect some defensive fireworks.
  
  I also expect Florida to prevail.
• #10 Clemson at Duke, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the 53rd time these teams have met since 1934, and Clemson has won 68% of the time.
  
  Duke has already qualified for a bowl berth, its first in nearly 20 years, and, if everything falls together just right, these teams might meet for a second time this season — in the ACC Championship game.
  
  But much work remains to be done before that happens. Duke is currently tied with North Carolina and Miami (Florida) for the lead in the ACC's Coastal Division, and Clemson trails Florida State (who beat the Tigers in September) by half a game in the Atlantic Division.
  
  Both teams have sufficient motivation, but the marquee unit in this game is Clemson's offense, which is 14th in the nation.
  
  Duke has every reason to be proud of what it has achieved — and what it may yet achieve — this season. But Duke's 75th–ranked defense figures to have trouble with Tajh Boyd (who has completed more than 67% of his passes) and Andre Ellington (who is averaging better than five yards a carry).
  
  I have to choose Clemson.
• Temple at #12 Louisville, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have played five times in the past — three times in the '80s.
  
  And their most recent meeting came in 2006 so there really isn't anything in their history that could be considered relevant to the current squads — except for the fact that Louisville has won the two meetings between the schools in the 21st century (Temple hasn't beaten Louisville since 1983).
  
  Along with having a two–game winning streak in the series, Louisville is ranked higher in both offense and defense — but note that this isn't your father's Louisville team that had such a fearsome offense. Louisville is middlin' (as folks often said about people and places and things when I was growing up) in that category these days — defense is Louisville's strong point in 2012.
  
  Defense is Temple's strength as well, but the Owls are only middlin' in that category, and their offense is one of the worst in the land. I believe Louisville will prevail.
• Arizona State at #13 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Unexpectedly, Oregon State has been a contender in the Pac–12 North this season. Ditto for Arizona State in the Pac–12 South.
  
  Both trail in their respective divisions by only ½ a game. The leaders in their respective divisions, USC and Oregon, will meet earlier in the day so, by the time this game kicks off, one squad will know that it really has its back to the wall.
  
  And that should give one of these teams a real sense of urgency.
  
  But, right now, the identity of that team is the unknown factor.
  
  I must make my pick based on what is known. And this is what is known:
  
  These teams first met in 1961, and they have been playing annually (with the exceptions of two seasons) since 1987. In all, Arizona State has won nearly 70% of the time, and the Sun Devils almost never lose to Oregon State at home.
  
  But there's the catch. This year, the game is in Corvallis, Ore., and the Beavers have won the last three times the teams have played there. In fact, if Oregon State wins, it will knot up the all–time series in Oregon.
  
  The outcome may be decided when Arizona State (with the nation's 18th–best offense) has the ball. Oregon State will counter with the 33rd–ranked defense. Can the Beavers handle the fifth–best passer (Taylor Kelly)? They'd better because Arizona State's defense is also in the Top 20, and Oregon State's offense is middlin' at #55.
  
  I think it will be a close game, but I believe Oregon State's home crowd — and the fact that I think Oregon will beat USC — will motivate Oregon State to defeat Arizona State.
• #14 Oklahoma at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: I've mentioned before that OU had probably its worst football teams during the time when I was on the faculty there.
  
  It was certainly the worst the football team has played in my lifetime.
  
  But even in those days, the Sooners always beat the Cyclones. Always. This will be their 77th meeting, and OU has won all but seven of those games (two were ties). OU hasn't lost to Iowa State since 1990, and its winning percentage in Ames, Iowa, is even higher than it is in Norman, Okla.
  
  Oklahoma probably has a Top 10 football team. The Sooners lost a close one to Kansas State in September and lost by a wider margin to Notre Dame last week. With two losses, OU is out of the running for the national title — and probably out of the running for the conference title.
  
  But I expect Oklahoma to win the game. As always.
• #15 Stanford at Colorado, 1 p.m. (Central) on FX: If this was the World Series, it would be the seventh and deciding game.
  
  These teams have played six times, and the series is knotted at 3–3. It would certainly be a dramatic story if this was baseball. Stanford has won the last three games — after Colorado won the first three.
  
  But, in reality, Colorado hasn't beaten Stanford since 1990. And both teams are undefeated on their home turf. Stanford welcomed Colorado to the conference with a 48–7 blowout at Stanford. But now Stanford must travel to Colorado — without Andrew Luck, who has moved on to the NFL.
  
  Even so, Stanford really hasn't missed a beat, and I expect a Stanford win today.
• #16 Texas A&M at #17 Mississippi State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Aggies have truly enjoyed a remarkable first season in the SEC.
  
  Sure, they have lost to LSU and Florida, but those are two perennial powers in the conference. They have exceeded everyone's expectations and can only qualify for better bowl bids with each win.
  
  But Mississippi State has had a pretty good season, too — an unexpectedly good season, and the Bulldogs have a 3–2 historical advantage against the Aggies. But, with the exception of the 2000 Independence Bowl, all the other games were played before World War II.
  
  Nevertheless, this will be the first time the teams have faced each other in Starkville. A new chapter in the series will be written there today.
  
  The marquee matchup should come when the Aggies (ranked fifth on offense) have the ball against Mississippi State's 28th–ranked defense. If the Bulldogs can stop the Aggies, they might have a chance (MSU's offense is 66th while A&M's defense is 35th).
  
  Texas A&M should win by a touchdown.
• San Diego State at #19 Boise State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: These teams met for the first time last year, and Boise State won, 52–35.
  
  It doesn't seem like a lot has changed. I think Boise State will win.
• Texas at #20 Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams are old rivals, going back long before Tech joined the Southwest Conference in 1960.
  
  It is a spirited rivalry, as Tech coach Tommy Tuberville told the Dallas Morning News, because so many players have friends on the opposite sideline, and at least one of the teams (usually Texas) has often been ranked when they have met.
  
  But seldom — if ever — has Texas Tech been the ranked team when the teams have played.
  
  In this series, I guess the most memorable moment came when the Red Raiders beat the Longhorns on the last play of the game in 2008. But the Longhorns have won the last three, including their return to the scene of the crime — Lubbock — two years ago.
  
  And now, here they are in Lubbock again, but the Longhorns are unranked while the Red Raiders are #20. And Texas Tech has the 11th–ranked offense in the country (Texas' is 38th). Texas Tech also has the #12 defense in the country (Texas' is 96th).
  
  I think Texas Tech will win, but it might be closer than these numbers would suggest.
• #21 Nebraska at Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, these teams have met six times (including twice when Michigan State was not yet classified Division 1–A). Nebraska has won all six games.
  
  When this season began, a lot of people probably figured these teams would be fixtures in the Top 25. But both fell out of the rankings fairly early, and Nebraska has only recently worked its way back in.
  
  The highlight–reel moments should come when the Cornhuskers have the ball and their 15th–ranked offense must face MSU's #5 defense. Nebraska's defense (ranked 26th) should have no trouble with Michigan State's 96th–ranked offense.
  
  Nebraska should improve to 7–0 against Michigan State.
• Texas–San Antonio at #22 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN–Plus: UTSA is really more of a basketball school.
  
  There isn't much to say about this one. I pick Louisiana Tech.
• TCU at #23 West Virginia, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have played only once before — in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl, which was won by West Virginia, 31–14.
  
  Now that the schools are in the same conference, this might be the beginning of a pretty intense series.
  
  In spite of recent setbacks, West Virginia still has one of the best offenses in the college game. The Mountaineers are 13th; the Horned Frogs are 48th.
  
  But the catch is on defense. TCU is 23rd in the nation while West Virginia is 114th (I suspect that ranking is in large part due to the fact that West Virginia has yielded 212 points in its last four games — victories over Baylor and Texas and losses to Texas Tech and Kansas State).
  
  I guess the question (well, it's a two–parter) is this: Is West Virginia's defense as good as the statistics from September would lead you to believe? Or is it as bad as it has appeared in its last four games?
  
  I'm going to go with TCU. My rationale is based on some common opponents.
  
  The Frogs didn't look particularly good in their loss to Iowa State (who will play West Virginia in three weeks) in early October, and their defense did give up a touchdown more to Texas Tech than the Mountaineers did — but the Frogs played three OT periods with Tech.
  
  And the Mountaineers gave up three times as many points to Baylor as TCU did.
  
  I think it will be close, but I will go with West Virginia at home.
• #24 Arizona at #25 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This could be the most intriguing Pac–12 game of the week.
  
  The Oregon–USC game probably will get more attention, but Arizona is coming off a big win over USC — and it was accomplished in spite of an apparent concussion suffered by Arizona's quarterback.
  
  It doesn't get much more dramatic than that, even if the drama was realized in hindsight.
  
  Aside from all that, Arizona has won the last two times it visited UCLA. In fact, the Wildcats have won the last five in a row — and are 6–1 against UCLA since 2005.
  
  But UCLA has a few things in its favor. The Bruins' defense is ranked higher (but that, as my father likes to say, is like the Polish beauty contest — there are no winners. UCLA's defense ranks 76th in the nation and Arizona's is 110th).
  
  However, Arizona has a decided advantage on offense. The Wildcats are fourth in the country (again, UCLA ranks 76th). On that basis, I pick Arizona to beat UCLA.

Last week: 12–7

Season: 141–37