Closing the Deal

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"They can quit playing now. They have played the perfect game."

Dave Kindred
Louisville Courier–Journal

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It's different with every Heisman Trophy winner.

Sometimes, guys go into seasons as the clear favorites to win it — and they don't get hurt and they don't have more than one or two really bad games and, when they receive the Heisman in December, it seems to have been preordained.

Other times, Heismans are won primarily on the basis of one or two explosive performances — whether those performances came in the Heisman–winning season or not, whether they were representative of the player's skills or not.

Sometimes you're not so sure.

Nebraska's Johnny Rodgers, it always seemed to me, may have secured the next season's Heisman on this day 40 years ago.

The 1971 Heisman was given to Auburn senior Pat Sullivan, an Academic All–American who graduated with a degree in business administration — in addition to setting all kinds of records at the quarterback position.

That decision had already been made by this time in 1971 — even though Rodgers, with an electrifying performance, had not yet sparked the #1 Cornhuskers to a victory of legendary proportions over #2 Oklahoma and Sullivan's Tigers had not yet lost to Alabama by the convincing score of 31–7 after the announcement had been made.

Sullivan's senior status — and academic credentials — were just enough to edge out Cornell's Ed Marinaro, the Ivy League's first legitimate Heisman contender in years.

And if anyone even mentioned giving Rodgers the trophy in 1971, he was probably talked out of it rather quickly — perhaps because Sullivan would have no other opportunities to win the Heisman and Rodgers would, perhaps because Rodgers was a convicted felon (and no convicted felon had won the Heisman before).

It wasn't because no one knew who Rodgers was.

He had been making contributions to the team's success all season — but Nebraska's Heisman contender in 1971 was quarterback Jerry Tagge (and he finished seventh). There were also a couple of OU players who had support in the Heisman balloting — halfback Greg Pruitt, who finished a distant third, and quarterback Jack Mildren, who finished sixth.

Anyway, what happened 40 years ago today had no influence on the Heisman balloting. In a procedure that differs dramatically from the one with which modern football fans are familiar, the winner was announced the day before Nebraska and Oklahoma played each other, and the trophy was presented to Sullivan nine days later.

And history tells us that Rodgers' Cornhuskers beat the second–ranked Sooners that day in a game that, 40 years later, folks who are old enough to remember it — and even folks who hadn't been born yet when the game was played — speak of it in hushed tones.

But Rodgers' early punt return was widely seen as the decisive play on that Thanksgiving afternoon, and it is hard for me to believe that Rodgers did not think, when he left the field that day, that he had just closed the deal on the next season's Heisman Trophy.

College Football's Feast of Rivalries

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I've been following college football for a long time now, and I can't think of a time when there was as much uncertainty — spoken and unspoken — on as many fronts as there is today.

On perhaps the most minimal level, college football fans are quite familiar with not really knowing which teams will play for the national title — and that certainly appears to be the case this year. It is generally assumed that top–ranked LSU will be one of the teams invited to play for the BCS' mythical crown, but the Tigers still have to get past my alma mater, the University of Arkansas, on Friday afternoon — and then the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game the next weekend.

Neither assignment will be easy.

As the Arkansas–LSU game is on this week's Top 25 schedule, I will discuss it — and why I think it is more than possible that LSU will lose — a bit later. But, if LSU wins and goes on to play Georgia, it's worth remembering that those teams have faced each other in the SEC Championship twice — and each team won one (by almost identical scores, too).

It won't be easy for LSU to beat Georgia.

The currently 9–2 Bulldogs have their traditional season–ending game with Georgia Tech this week, and there is a severe price to be paid if one overlooks that rivalry, but I'm sure the Bulldogs will endeavor to ration their emotion, knowing that one of three teams — LSU, Alabama or Arkansas — will be waiting for them in Atlanta next week.

What a story it would be if Georgia coach Mark Richt — virtually given up for dead after an 0–2 start — could win the SEC title and end the national title hopes of one of those three schools — because the winner of the SEC West is sure to be entertaining those thoughts next week.

The Bulldogs will be grateful just to be there and are sure to be the underdog, no matter which SEC West team they face (and, as Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated observed, rarely has a single conference — let alone a division within a conference — been so well represented at the top of the national polls).

Consequently, all eyes this week will be on the two big games in the SEC West, Arkansas–LSU and Alabama–Auburn. Ironically, the only team of the four who cannot fantasize about winning a national title is Auburn — last year's national champion.

Without Cam Newton, the Tigers have been reduced to mere mortal status — but that doesn't mean they aren't capable of pulling off an upset.

So Auburn gets its chance to upset the apple cart this week, then it will be Georgia's turn.

Well, that's what could happen on the SEC's side. It is likely that one of the teams in the national title game will be from the SEC — but probably not if Georgia wins in Atlanta next week.

There still would be the matter of which team would face LSU, Alabama or Arkansas. Will it be Stanford? Oklahoma State? Virginia Tech? How about Boise State? Or undefeated Houston? There are several potential upsets out there, too — Notre Dame might well knock off Stanford; Virginia could surprise Virginia Tech; who knows what else might happen?

It's the point in the schedule that is loaded with traditional rivalries, and those are a different breed. Records don't matter too much.

Being as anti–BCS as I am, of course, I am openly pulling for any chaos that will erupt — except where my alma mater is concerned! If the system works in the Razorbacks' favor, I will tolerate it. But, in general — and on principle — I think that, the sooner college football goes to a real playoff system, the better.

Let it be decided on the field — like the games in Waco, Los Angeles and Ames last week.

Idle: #5 Oklahoma State, #16 Kansas State, #19 TCU

Friday

• #3 Arkansas at #1 LSU, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Most teams would probably be intimidated by LSU but not Arkansas.
  
  The Razorbacks have beaten LSU in three of the last four years — including a triple–overtime thriller in Baton Rouge in 2007, the last time LSU won a national championship.
  
  I can certainly see why the casual viewer would be inclined to think that LSU will win. The Tigers are ranked second in the nation in defense — and I've been hearing the adage "Defense wins championships" all my life.
  
  I guess this will be a good test. The Razorbacks have a far better offense than LSU's. In fact, Arkansas' offense (ranked #21 in the nation) has been consistently better than any other offense in the Southeastern Conference.
  
  Arkansas also has been dealing with a team tragedy this week. Freshman tight end Garrett Uekman died Sunday, the victim of an undiagnosed heart condition. On the day after Thanksgiving, I'm betting that his teammates will dedicate their game with LSU to him — and Arkansas will win in an upset.


• #8 Houston at Tulsa, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: There have been some outrageous scores in this series, almost always on Houston's side.
  
  Probably the single most outrageous score was the day in 1968 when the Cougars ran up 100 points at home against a hapless Tulsa squad, but a couple of years earlier Houston tallied 73 points on Tulsa. In 1988, Houston registered 82 points and then scored 70 points in their 2008 meeting.
  
  Sometimes the scores are just wild on both sides. The last time these teams played in Tulsa, Houston won, 46–45. (The time before that, Tulsa won, 56–7.)
  
  I don't know if football fans are in for another wild score this time, but I do know, as do most college football fans, that Houston has one of the most potent offenses in America. What a lot of people don't know is that Tulsa has a pretty good offense, too (currently ranked 19th in the nation).
  
  I expect Houston to win — but it will be a lot closer than many people expect.


• Iowa at #22 Nebraska, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This has been Nebraska's first season as a member of the Big Ten and many of the Cornhuskers' conference games have been their first — or nearly their first — with various teams.
  
  But Iowa is a familiar foe — historically. This will be the 31st time the teams have met, but it will be their first game in more than 10 years and only the seventh time they have played since 1979.
  
  Half of the games were played in the 1930s and 1940s — so the outcomes of those games don't really mean much in the 21st century.
  
  But, no matter which decade or era is being discussed, Nebraska has generally dominated Iowa. Overall, the Cornhuskers have won 70% of their games with the Hawkeyes — and 83% of the games played since 1979.
  
  The fact that the game is being played in Lincoln probably works in Nebraska's favor, too, but I don't think the weather will be a factor. Current forecasts for Friday are calling for midday temperatures in the upper 40s or lower 50s in Nebraska — roughly the same as the forecast for Iowa.
  
  I expect Nebraska, with a slight advantage on offense and a more decisive one on defense, to beat the Hawkeyes by about 10 points.

Saturday

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• #2 Alabama at Auburn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: As it has so often before, the "Iron Bowl" appears destined to play a key role in the national championship race.
  
  Until 1998, this game was almost always played in the neutral city of Birmingham, but every game since then has been played at Auburn or Tuscaloosa. I guess that's been good news for Auburn. The Tigers have winning records on both campuses; the Crimson Tide won nearly two–thirds of the games played in Birmingham so they lead the overall series.
  
  As an Arkansas graduate, I would love nothing more than to see the Razorbacks win on Friday and the Crimson Tide lose on Saturday — because that combination would put Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game next week.
  
  And I do believe, as I wrote earlier, that Arkansas will beat LSU — but Alabama has such a ferocious defense. It's the best in the country, and it was pretty good last year, too — and, without Cam Newton to engineer a comeback (dubbed "The Camback") this year, I don't see how the Crimson Tide can be denied.
  
  I pick Alabama — reluctantly.


• #22 Notre Dame at #4 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This series began in the mid–1920s, when Notre Dame's famed "Four Horsemen," coached by Knute Rockne, defeated Stanford and Pop Warner in the Rose Bowl.
  
  The teams played a few times after that, but the series really didn't become an annual event (not even annual, really) until 1988.
  
  Overall, Notre Dame has won 68% of the games it has played with Stanford, and the Irish won seven in a row against weak–to–mediocre Stanford teams between 2001 and 2008, but the Cardinal has won the last two.
  
  These days, when people think of Stanford's football team, they probably think of quarterback Andrew Luck, and it is true that he is a major reason why Stanford's offense is 10th in the country. But the Irish have been quietly compiling some pretty impressive offensive numbers of their own; they're currently ranked 33rd in the country.
  
  Neither team has been too shabby on the defensive side of the ball, either, and there is virtually no difference between them. Stanford is ranked 24th in the nation, Notre Dame is ranked 28th.
  
  Unless Luck is injured in what seems increasingly likely to be his final home game, I think Stanford will win the game and extend its streak against Notre Dame to three in a row.


• #6 Virginia Tech at #24 Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I'm sure it is no exaggeration to say that probably few people expected the Cavaliers to be playing for the division crown.
  
  But there was really no reason to think that Virginia would get its improbable win over the Seminoles — without which the Coastal Division race would be over and the Cavaliers would enter this game with nothing other than in–state pride going for them.
  
  However, that one–point win over Florida State has put the Cavaliers a victory over Tech away from the ACC Championship Game with Clemson. Virginia didn't play Clemson, but Virginia Tech did. It was the only game the Hokies lost (so far, anyway), and you have to figure that Virginia Tech would like a second shot against the Tigers.
  
  But the Hokies have to take care of business first, and that could be pretty challenging. Tech's numbers have been better than Virginia's on both offense and defense — but not by much — and having an excited home crowd pulling for them could lift the Cavaliers to victory.
  
  But I don't think that will happen. I'll take Virginia Tech by a pair of field goals.


• Wyoming at #7 Boise State, 1 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn.: Wyoming is 0–5 against Boise State.
  
  But the Broncos should be concerned. Wyoming is 7–3 and its only conference blemish is its loss to TCU, who also beat Boise State. Whoever wins will be the runnerup in the conference — and perhaps the recipient of a respectable bowl bid.
  
  There's a lot at stake, but I see no reason to think that Wyoming can do something it has never done before. There can be room for only one of those in a given football season, and Baylor already claimed it last week.
  
  I pick Boise State to beat Wyoming by a wide margin.


• Oregon State at #9 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Known as the "Civil War," this is the seventh–oldest rivalry in America.
  
  It was first played in 1894, and the schools have been playing as Division I rivals since 1916. In 94 meetings since that time, the teams are nearly even (Oregon leads, 45–43–6), and, strangely enough, the visiting team has a slight edge. In games played at Oregon State, Oregon leads 23–18–3. In games played at Oregon, Oregon State leads, 21–20–3. (Six games were played in the "neutral" city of Portland prior to 1952, and Oregon State won four of those).
  
  In recent years, the advantage has belonged to Oregon, winner of three straight and 11 of the 17 games played since 1994. I think that will continue. I pick Oregon by four touchdowns.


• UCLA at #10 Southern Cal, 9 p.m. (Central) on FSN: The rivalry between UCLA and Southern Cal is extremely unusual in American sports because they are not just in–state rivals. They are in–city rivals, with campuses that are, perhaps, 15 miles apart.
  
  Consequently, with more than 65,000 undergraduate students between them, many of whom remain in Los Angeles or southern California after graduation, there is a high likelihood that current students and alumni of both schools will interact on a daily basis, even if no sport is in season.
  
  And that tends to intensify the competition.
  
  It is also intensified on those occasions when the winner is likely, as it has been many times, to win or share the conference championship and represent the conference in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Based on the overall records, USC (9–2) would appear to have the advantage over UCLA (6–5), but that overlooks the fact that nonconference schedules are not created equal. UCLA lost to Houston and Texas in September; USC defeated Minnesota and Syracuse during the same period.
  
  In conference play, both lost to Stanford — UCLA by a far more decisive margin. USC lost to Arizona State; UCLA did not. But UCLA lost to Utah and Arizona — and USC did not.
  
  The recent history of this series strongly favors USC. The Trojans have won all but one of the 12 games played between the schools since 1999.
  
  I'll pick USC by a couple of touchdowns.


• #11 Michigan State at Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: There is a certain symmetry that exists in this series.
  
  Michigan State is 18–6 at home against Northwestern — and 18–6 on the road against Northwestern.
  
  That's a three–fourths victory rate in either place — and that's the Spartans' ratio against Northwestern in the last four games between the schools.
  
  It isn't always that neat, of course. From 1991 to 2006, the series was pretty competitive. MSU won seven times, Northwestern won five.
  
  But the Spartans seem to have been particularly successful on the road against Northwestern, winning eight of their last 10 games in Evanston.
  
  I've seen no compelling reason to pick against the Spartans. I expect Michigan State to win the game.


• Iowa State at #12 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Beware, Sooners. Iowa State just beat your in–state rivals in double overtime and now comes to Norman looking for more Okie blood.
  
  As much of an upset as Iowa State's victory over Oklahoma State was, though, a triumph over OU would have to be even more shocking.
  
  Oklahoma has won 12 straight against Iowa State and has lost only once to the Cyclones in the last 50 years.
  
  In a series that goes back to the 1920s, Iowa State has won less than 10% of the time, so there aren't too many bright spots for the Cyclones. But if you really want something to hang your hat on, the two most recent Iowa State victories over Oklahoma came in Norman — in 1961 and 1990. So, too, did their 7–7 tie in 1981.
  
  And those are all the games with Iowa State that Oklahoma did not win in the last half century. The Sooners are unblemished in the 21st century, and I expect it to stay that way. Oklahoma should win.


• #13 Georgia at #25 Georgia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Ever notice how the nicknames that are given to many rivalries tend to be sort of politically correct in their tone? I mean, they reflect the general nature of a rivalry, but not the true spirit.
  
  In that context, the Georgia–Georgia Tech rivalry is almost a breath of fresh air in its honesty — it is known as "Clean, Old–Fashioned Hate."
  
  Each side has something to hate about the other, and, based on the numbers, the very best that each team has to offer will be on the field at the same time. The numbers say that Georgia Tech has the better offense and that Georgia has the better defense.
  
  All else being equal, I tend to lean to the stronger defense. And that is what I'm doing in this one. I'll go with Georgia.


• #18 Clemson at #14 South Carolina, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Roughly 130 miles separate the two campuses. It was only natural that they would become rivals.
  
  The rivalry between the schools goes back to the 19th century. The rivalry between the football teams goes back to the turn of the century.
  
  Most of the football games have been played at South Carolina, but Clemson has won more than 60% of the time in spite of having to be the visiting team on most occasions. In recent years, however, the Gamecocks have held the upper hand, winning three of the last five contests.
  
  South Carolina's defense is fifth in the country (compared to Clemson's rather ordinary defensive unit) — and should be tested by Clemson's 18th–ranked offense (South Carolina's offense has really struggled).
  
  Once again, I will go with the stronger defense and pick South Carolina to win by a touchdown.


• #20 Penn State at #15 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Since these teams became Big Ten rivals in the 1990s, they have played in Wisconsin six times, and each team has won three.
  
  Thus, the winner of Saturday's game will take the lead in their conference series in Madison. More than that, the winner will advance to the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.
  
  In those previous six games, though, Joe Paterno was on the sidelines. This will be the 15th time the schools have played each other in football but only the second time that Paterno hasn't been part of it.
  
  We're still in the early stages of the post–JoePa era, and I'm sure there will be lots of stories like that in the next year or two.
  
  By next fall, the returning Nittany Lions will have had nearly a year to adjust to the new reality. But it's all still new to them, and I don't think they're able, at this point, to compartmentalize the way they need to do to rise to the occasion against the Badgers.
  
  I think Wisconsin will win.


• Ohio State at #17 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Nearly 12 years ago, ESPN said this was the greatest of all sports rivalries.
  
  There are others I would have included on ESPN's list, but, when I was a child, the Ohio State–Michigan game was more than a football game. It was an event.
  
  It isn't that way anymore. Oh, usually one team, maybe both, will be ranked, which makes it interesting, but when I was growing up, both teams were usually in the Top 10 — and the winner of their game almost always went to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Michigan can grab a share of the Leaders Division championship but, because the Wolverines lost to Michigan State earlier this season, cannot play for the Big Ten crown.
  
  They can, however, play for pride and bragging rights — and to snap a seven–game losing streak in the series. I think Michigan will win the game — by a touchdown.


• #21 Baylor vs. Texas Tech at Arlington, Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: When you've just beaten the Oklahoma Sooners for the first time in school history, what do you do for an encore?
  
  For Baylor, I suppose, a fitting finale would be to defeat the other team that beat Oklahoma this year (except the Bears still have a game to play against Texas on Dec. 3).
  
  The Red Raiders have played the Bears more often than any other team. Theirs is a series that began long before the teams became Southwest Conference rivals.
  
  Tech has won 15 straight, including the last two, which have been played in Dallas and Arlington. History suggests the Bears would have been better off keeping the home–and–away arrangement. Even though they have lost every game played since 1996, they do have a winning record against Tech in Waco.
  
  Tech needs to have history on its side, though, because the Red Raiders haven't had much else this season. They've lost six of their last season (with the exception being their win in Norman — go figure) while Baylor is riding a three–game winning streak.
  
  I can see in which directions these teams are headed, and I pick Baylor by four points.

Last week: 15–7

Season: 189–50

The Dawn of the Iron (Mike) Age

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My overwhelming memory of Mike Tyson's reign as heavyweight champion is that he was reckless in the ring.

But the problem is that reckless doesn't really seem to be the right word for "Iron Mike" in his heyday.

See, reckless — for me — conjures up the image of the Tasmanian devil from the old cartoons spinning his way through whatever happened to be in his path — trees, houses, mountains, whatever.

Tyson — for those of you who are too young to remember or may not have been born yet — was a powerful man, all right. When you watched him in the ring, even if he was simply standing in his corner of it, you saw muscles rippling all over his body — in his arms and legs and his torso.

Boxing's aficionados have mentioned Tyson with history's greatest punchers — comparable to Joe Frazier, Sonny Liston, Rocky Marciano, George Foreman. He was entirely capable of ripping into anyone and anything that got in his way.

To be sure, he looked reckless at times. But he was no Tasmanian devil. That was just his way.

I never really got the impression that Tyson was much of a thinker or strategist in the ring. To me, he seemed somewhat disdainful of pursuits of style points.

Style points were for fighters who didn't expect to knock the other guy out, who expected both fighters to still be standing at the end of the final scheduled round.

And Tyson always gave the distinct impression that he expected to knock the other guy out. I don't think he ever believed that an opponent was capable of going the distance with him.

He acted more on instinct, like a wounded bear defending his turf. His objective was never to outwit a foe. His objective was to hurt his foe and finish the fight as quickly as possible.

He never seemed to care if his opponent knew what he was going to do. He did it, anyway.

And most of the time, Tyson did finish off his opponent in a round or two.

That's what happened 25 years ago tonight. Tyson was in his prime and as disciplined as he was ever going to be during his boxing career, finishing off Trevor Berbick quickly to become the youngest man to win the WBC, WBA and IBF world heavyweight titles.

It was a "watershed moment," writes Tim Smith in the New York Daily News.

"Not since Tyson," Smith writes, "has any heavyweight champion captured the attention of the sporting public with a unique brand of ring menace and concussive force."

Tyson was barely 20 when he defeated Berbick by a second–round technical knockout. When I watch the film of the fight, I can see the intense focus in Tyson's eyes. Maybe it was really naivete — maybe he was just too young to comprehend that he was trying to do something no one his age had ever done before.

And I can sense growing trepidation in Berbick's eyes.

When Tyson lost the title forever in a stunning upset at the hands of Buster Douglas in 1990, it was in large part due to the fact that Douglas used his own version of Muhammad Ali's famous rope–a–dope strategy that forced a fighter who was accustomed to getting the job done in a round or two to wear himself out. Douglas wore Tyson down, then put him away in the 10th round.

It was reminiscent of the night in 1974 when Ali took the heavyweight title from another two– or three–round specialist by the name of George Foreman.

By the time Douglas beat Tyson, many things had changed in Tyson's world. His mentor, Cus D'Amato, died about a year before Tyson claimed the title in his fight with Berbick, but Tyson was still fighting under D'Amato's influence with his protege, Kevin Rooney, stepping into the void after D'Amato's death.

Tyson and Rooney came to a parting of the ways in 1988, and Tyson's career, and life in general, started spinning out of control.

But, on this night in 1986, it was vintage Tyson. Bleacher Report calls it one of the 10 strangest knockouts in boxing history, but I never saw it that way.

Granted, it wasn't pretty. In fact, it was often primitive. But it got the job done. Tyson was disciplined enough to do that much.

And when one watches the footage of the Berbick fight, one can only wonder what Tyson might have been if he had continued to be as disciplined long after D'Amato was gone.

BCS Chaos

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I have made no secret of my distaste for the so–called Bowl Championship Series — or BCS — that is supposed to match the two best college football teams in a national championship game at season's end, even though neither team must earn its spot in a playoff system.

Unless one or both must play in a conference championship game.

But no champions from other conferences must be conquered to reach the national title game. Only the pollsters and computers must be persuaded of the teams' worthiness — and they need not be familiar with the teams they choose.

In fact, there probably are coaches who vote in their poll or sports writers who vote in their poll who have had little, if any, exposure to the teams that ultimately are anointed to play for all the marbles.

That is my greatest gripe about the BCS system, I suppose.

Let's assume, if only for a minute, that LSU wins the SEC championship game against Georgia. A case can be made that the participants in that game earned their berths on the field — and, since the championship game will be played on a day when there will be very few other college football games, it is logical to assume that most, if not all, of the coaches who participate in their poll and the sports writers who participate in their poll will see the game.

But week in and week out, how many coaches do you suppose take time out from their own game preparation responsibilities to familiarize themselves with three or four dozen college teams by watching tape of and/or reading articles about them?

For that matter, how many sports writers take time from their coverage of local or regional programs to view the tapes and read the articles relating to those same three or four dozen college teams from around the country?

Probably few in either instance.

But, like lemmings allegedly committing mass suicide when they migrate, they follow the group. What may have begun as the perception of a few becomes a self–fulfilling prophecy.

Unless fate intervenes.

Fate intervened this weekend.

LSU, the top–ranked team in the nation, almost surely will remain where it was when the weekend began.

But #2 Oklahoma State as certainly will drop after its double–overtime loss to Iowa State on Friday night — a development that was doubly shocking. The Cowboys were expected to whip the Cyclones, even before the news reached the team that the OSU women's basketball coach and one of his assistants were killed in an airplane crash in central Arkansas.

News of the tragedy was expected to serve as even more motivation for the Cowboys — but it didn't.

They were stunned, I guess — or maybe they were simply lethargic. Their big showdown with Oklahoma is two weeks away — and the Cowboys have next week off. How could 10–0 Oklahoma State, with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State, get excited about playing 5–4 Iowa State?

Whatever it was, the Cowboys lost the game.

Folks were still absorbing that news when a couple of other bombshells were dropped on the Top 10.

First, the other Oklahoma school went down in spectacular fashion. The once–beaten Sooners faced Baylor University, a team that had never beaten Oklahoma in 19 previous attempts. In fact, it had been more than a decade since Baylor even came within two touchdowns of OU.

But, on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, the Bears beat the fifth–ranked Sooners — pretty convincingly, too.

And, as that equally shocking development was playing out in the heart of Texas, there was even more.

Fourth–ranked Oregon was losing its second game of the season. The Ducks' first defeat was way back at the beginning of the season in a Labor Day weekend clash with LSU. Oregon had been craving a rematch in the national championship game, but the loss to 18th–ranked Southern California undoubtedly put an end to any such hopes.

It can be argued, for that matter, that Oklahoma is also out of the national championship conversation. And, although they have only one loss, that one loss — to a six–win team — is probably too devastating for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to overcome.

Well, I've been saying it would take a state of utter chaos to build momentum for the implementation of a playoff system — and we may be witnessing the start of such a state.

But I want it to go beyond what has happened this weekend.

On Friday, my alma mater, the University of Arkansas (ranked sixth when the weekend began and certain to move up in the rankings later today following a 44–17 victory over Mississippi State yesterday) will travel to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Baton Rouge can be a scary place for most football teams — but not necessarily for Arkansas.

Sure, the Razorbacks are 1–4 in Baton Rouge since 2001, but all but one of those games were decided by three points or less. And the Razorbacks have won three of their last four games against the Tigers.

Another victory is not out of the question — and it could propel the Razorbacks into the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Especially if Auburn upends currently second–ranked Alabama in Saturday's Iron Bowl. If you're scoffing at that notion, let me remind you that Alabama–Auburn is a rivalry of long standing — and rivalries like that operate in spheres of their own.

There are other things that could happen in other games to change the dynamics of the BCS and make more college football fans think about the system that currently chooses the national champion and how it compares to a legitimate playoff system.

Undoubtedly, those things will be evident later today when the latest polls come out and then tonight when the latest BCS standings are released.

In the end, LSU may well be the only unbeaten team standing and may be the unquestionable choice to be national champion.

But I'm still pulling for chaos, and if what happened on Friday and Saturday is the beginning of revolutionary chaos, then all I can say is ...

Let the revolution begin.

But, for now, I am pleased.

The Letdown of the Century

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Over the years, many games in many sports have been called — in anticipation, rarely in retrospect — "the game of the century."

The latest, of course, was the LSU–Alabama game earlier this month.

But, even if there is such a game every year for the next 100 years, there will never be another game that will end like the one that was played 45 years ago.

On this day in 1966, such a game was played in East Lansing, Mich., between the undefeated Michigan State Spartans and the also undefeated Notre Dame Fightin' Irish. Notre Dame was ranked #1 in both polls. Defending UPI national champion Michigan State was ranked #2 in both polls.

It was ironic, really, that the teams played each other at all that season. The top two teams in the polls had not faced each other in 20 years, since the 1946 Army–Notre Dame game (which featured three past or future Heisman Trophy winners and, perhaps even more ironically, ended in a 0–0 tie), which made it a rarity to begin with.

But that is only the beginning of the story.

On the original 1966 schedule, which had been released several years earlier, Michigan State had only nine games slated, even though a team was allowed to play as many as 10 regular–season games. Notre Dame, meanwhile, did have10 games scheduled, but one of its opponents, Iowa, dropped the Irish.

Since Michigan State had an open spot, the Spartans agreed to play the Irish, setting the stage for their showdown — even though no one knew at the time that it would be a #1–#2 clash.

In those pre–cable days, NCAA rules and regulations permitted college football teams to play in only one nationally televised and two regionally televised games during the regular season. The postseason was an entirely different matter, but, again, the times were different. There were far fewer bowl games — and no conference championship games.

Notre Dame had already played its nationally televised game, and ABC's executives didn't want to show the game outside the schools' region, but interest was so high elsewhere that they gave in and agreed to show it on a delayed basis to non–regional viewers.

Whether they saw it live or on tape, those viewers witnessed what had to be the letdown of the century.

Looking at the final score from the perspective of 45 years later — 10–10 — I suppose one's initial conclusion would be that it was an edge–of–your–seat, nail–biting finish, an old–fashioned defensive struggle.

To an extent, I suppose that is true. But not entirely.

Michigan State scored all its points in the first half, and Notre Dame managed to cut the deficit to 10–7 by intermission. The Irish then tied the game with a field goal at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Michigan State had a chance to take the lead on a deep pass, but the receiver outran the pass and had to double back. Notre Dame intercepted the pass, but then missed a field goal that would have given the Irish the lead for the first time.

So far, so good. Then the game of the century became the letdown of the century.

With a little more than a minute remaining in the game, Notre Dame had the ball at its 30 and needed to reach Michigan State's 30 to be in field goal range. Most viewers probably figured the Irish would take a stab at it. In those days, there was no overtime in college football.

But Notre Dame coach Ara Parseghian chose not to make the attempt and ran out the clock. It was a controversial decision, to say the least.

"We'd fought hard to come back and tie it up," Parseghian said. "After all that, I didn't want to risk giving it to them cheap. They get reckless, and it could cost them the game. I wasn't going to do a jackass thing like that at this point."

The Irish crushed Southern California the following week but did not accept bowl bids at the time, thus ending the 1966 season at 9–0–1 and clinging to the top ranking. That didn't go over well at all with Alabama fans, whose team had a perfect record. Even after 45 years, it's still a sore point for older Crimson Tide supporters.

Michigan State also finished 9–0–1 and did not play in a bowl but because of conference rules, not school policy.

At that time, the Big Ten did not allow a school to represent it in the Rose Bowl in consecutive years, and Big Ten teams were not allowed to play in any bowl game other than the Rose Bowl so the Spartans stayed home for the holidays.

And the question of who was really the best college football team in 1966 remained unanswered for many college football fans.

Joe Frazier's First Title Defense

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It is somewhat ironic that Joe Frazier died less than two weeks ago because today is the 41st anniversary of his first defense of the title he won in February 1970 — against light heavyweight champion Bob Foster in Detroit.

It was the 26th professional fight for Frazier, who won a gold medal at the 1964 Olympics, and it ended like the first 25 did — with a victory. It was his quickest triumph in a year and a half.

It was also his last fight before the first of Frazier's legendary trilogy of bouts with Muhammad Ali.

In hindsight, perhaps the Foster fight should have been something of a cautionary tale for Ali.

"Joe was a vicious wrecking machine against Foster," boxing trainer Emanuel Steward told the Detroit Free Press. "He was like an animal (in the ring)."

Frazier's performance against Foster certainly contributed to his reputation.

"Even for those born long after Frazier hung up the gloves, Smokin' Joe is a boxing legend," wrote Jake Emen for Yahoo! Sports when Frazier died earlier this month.

Emen wrote, as everyone does, that two of Frazier's fights with Ali — the "Fight of the Century" and the "Thrilla in Manila" — were the greatest two moments of his career, but he also mentioned Smokin' Joe's two–round triumph over Foster as being one of his "solid victories" between the fight in which he won the title and his first fight with Ali.

Frazier's fight with Foster, a Hall of Fame light heavyweight, was, indeed, a solid, workmanlike effort, finishing off his challenger in two rounds. The decisive punch was one of Frazier's trademark left hooks, and Foster couldn't beat the count.

For Smokin' Joe, the prelude to the chapter of his life's story that will always be remembered was over.

Next for Frazier would be the first of his bouts with Ali — the only one of the three that he won and the one that would secure his spot in boxing history as one of the great heavyweight champions of all time.

Nearing the Finish Line ...

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Sunday will be the 29th anniversary of what may be
the most amazing finish in the history of the Big Game.

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After major showdowns in the SEC and Pac–12 the last couple of weeks, this week seems sort of like the lull before the next storm.

Some of the more significant late–season games will be coming up next week — on Thanksgiving and the weekend that follows.

Texas–Texas A&M may not have the kind of national implications it has had in the past, but it may well be the last meeting between these two old rivals and will certainly draw a sizable TV audience on Thanksgiving night.

Then, the next day, LSU will host Arkansas, and Alabama will meet Auburn on Saturday.

Like the UT–A&M game, next weekend's rivalry clashes between the likes of Florida and Florida State and USC and UCLA won't necessarily mean much to the rankings, but they have a lot of significance for the students and fans of those schools.

Then, the following weekend, all eyes will be on Oklahoma–Oklahoma State. Whatever happens between Alabama and Auburn, football fans will still be curious to know if OSU can remain unbeaten or if the Sooners can upend the Cowboys and sneak into the national championship game (and, incidentally, Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated says OU has a better chance of being in the national title game than Alabama).

There should be several intriguing story lines in college football in the next few weeks.

I've made no secret of the fact that I'm no fan of the BCS. I'd like to see college football go to a real playoff system, perhaps incorporating the existing bowls as the sites for the championship, the semifinal rounds and, possibly, quarterfinal rounds — on a rotating basis.

But, if such a thing is going to happen, we're going to need a season or two of virtually complete chaos. That's going to require inconclusive regular seasons followed by equally inconclusive conference championship games, producing several legitimate prospects for the two national championship berths, not merely three or four.

Ideally, I suppose, we need about half a dozen one–loss teams. Really, the more the better, but it seems to me that it's going to take half a dozen at least to loosen the exclusive grip the BCS has on NCAA football. The grip won't be broken in one season, and the BCS has frequently been criticized when three or more teams could make plausible arguments for being allowed to play for a national title.

This season probably won't produce the kind of chaos that is needed to prompt a wholesale reform of the system, but football fans who want to see the NCAA go to a real playoff system can always hope, right up until the final whistle of the championship game itself, that the kind of chaos that is needed will happen.

As I say, that kind of chaos probably won't happen this year. But, if it's going to happen at all, it might as well start to happen this year. And this weekend is as good a weekend as any.

Thursday

• #22 Southern Miss at UAB, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This series has been exclusively the product of the 21st century — but, until two years ago, it was traditionally lopsided.
  
  Southern Miss went 9–0 against UAB from 2000 to 2008, but UAB has won the last two meetings — all of which means precisely nothing, I suppose.
  
  Except in terms of momentum and confidence — not to mention the fact that Southern Miss (9–1) is ranked in the Top 25 and UAB is 2–8.
  
  I think Southern Miss will win by three touchdowns.


• #9 Virginia Tech at North Carolina, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically, Virginia Tech has dominated this series — although the series was dormant for nearly half a century.
  
  In the first half of the 20th century, the schools met regularly on the gridiron. But then they fought to a tie for the only time at North Carolina — and didn't play again until the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day 1998.
  
  They became conference rivals in 2004 and have been playing each other ever since. Virginia Tech is 6–1 in that time — a much higher winning percentage than the Hokies have compiled against the Tar Heels since their first meeting way back in 1902.
  
  One of these days, North Carolina will beat Virginia Tech. But not this time. I pick Virginia Tech by 10 points.

Friday

• #2 Oklahoma State at Iowa State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Historically, OSU would prefer to be playing this game in Stillwater, where the Cowboys have a 14–6–2 advantage.
  
  Since 1991, Iowa State is 4–2–1 at home against Oklahoma State.
  
  But this is Oklahoma State, 2011 edition, we're talking about. The Cowboys are averaging more than 50 points a game. Iowa State, meanwhile, has been averaging less than half that.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State to win by three touchdowns — at least — in the Cowboys' warmup for their in–state grudge match with Oklahoma.

Saturday

• #1 LSU at Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I've been saying all along that I am not sold on LSU — and, in spite of everything that has happened, I am still not sold on the Tigers. Not yet. If they beat my Razorbacks next week, I'll concede the point. But until then ...
  
  It is beyond dispute, though, that, in last weekend's Associated Press poll, LSU became the first unanimous #1 during the regular season since 2008.
  
  The Tigers didn't necessarily distinguish themselves by beating Western Kentucky last week. Nor will they distinguish themselves when they beat the hapless Ole Miss Rebels this weekend — which they will.
  
  To suggest otherwise would be ludicrous. Ole Miss has lost 12 consecutive SEC games. Just last week, the Rebels were blown out (27–7) at home by Louisiana Tech last week. LSU, meanwhile, is 11–2 in the SEC in the last two years. The Tigers avenged one of last season's losses — to Auburn — earlier this season, and they will have the opportunity to avenge the other one — to Arkansas — next week.
  
  As long as they don't take their eyes off the ball.
  
  I don't think they will. I expect LSU to win.


• Georgia Southern at #3 Alabama: To the casual observer, Georgia Southern may not seem like a worthy foe for a team that was considered a potential national champion only a couple of weeks ago.
  
  But, as Lee Corso would say, not so fast, my friend.
  
  Sure, Tuscaloosa is a tough place for a visiting team to play. I've said that before. But Georgia Southern brings a 9–1 record to this game — same as the Crimson Tide.
  
  Well, Alabama plays a tougher schedule, you may say — and that is undoubtedly true. In just their SEC division alone, the Tide must face LSU, Arkansas and Auburn every year — as well as Mississippi State and Ole Miss and, presumably, the Texas A&M Aggies when they join the conference next year.
  
  I do believe Alabama will win the game — but it might not be quite as easy as some people think.


• #18 USC at #4 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, Southern Cal has the advantage in this series, but there are a couple of points in Oregon's favor.
  
  The series has been much closer when the games have been played in Oregon. The Trojans have a slight edge overall (12–11–1), but the Ducks are 3–2 there in the last 10 years. That's better than the record in Los Angeles, where the Trojans have won nearly four–fifths of the time.
  
  What's more, Oregon has beaten USC the last two times the teams have played in Eugene.
  
  Oregon also has the additional motivation of possibly being back in the national championship game in January — if all the chips fall just so. That would, include, of course, some apparently improbable turns of events — but you really never know what's going to happen in a football game.
  
  I don't know what will happen in this game — but I think I have an idea. I'll pick Oregon to win.


• #5 Oklahoma at #25 Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 20th time these teams have faced each other in football, and Baylor is still looking for its first victory over the Sooners.
  
  It hasn't been uncommon for Oklahoma to be ranked when the Sooners and the Bears have played, especially since the dawning of the 21st century, but rarely — if ever — has Baylor been ranked. That alone makes this game special, I suppose.
  
  It won't make it exceptional, though. I expect Oklahoma to win handily.


• Mississippi State at #6 Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Mississippi State has never beaten the Razorbacks inside the state borders of Arkansas. The closest the Bulldogs have come to a victory was in 1993, when they fought to a 13–13 tie in Little Rock's War Memorial Stadium.
  
  It's not possible for a college football game to end in a tie anymore, and I don't think Mississippi State will win this time, but I think it might be closer than a lot of people probably expect. I'll take Arkansas by 10 points.


• #7 Clemson at North Carolina State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These schools have played each other nearly 80 times (annually since 1971), and Clemson has a winning record over N.C. State wherever they have played — including games that were played at the neutral site of Charlotte, N.C.
  
  N.C. State is a respectable 5–5 and may well be motivated by the knowledge that all NCSU needs to get a bowl bid is one more win — but that win seems much more likely to come against 2–8 Maryland next week than against 9–1 Clemson this week.
  
  I pick Clemson in what could be a very close game.


• California at #8 Stanford, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I think this edition of "The Big Game" could be a lot better than the rankings might suggest. After all, 6–4 Cal has the nation's 16th–best defense — far and away the best Stanford has faced.
  
  What's more, the Bears aren't likely to be intimidated by the Stanford crowd. They're 3–1 at Stanford since 2003.
  
  But, with the exception of last week's loss to Oregon, this seems to be Andrew Luck's year so I pick Stanford to win the game.


• #10 Boise State at San Diego State, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is the first time these teams have met.
  
  Boise State, of course, is still smarting from its loss to TCU last week, and 6–3 San Diego State appears to have the tools to hand Boise its second consecutive regular–season loss — which is an experience the Broncos haven't had since September 2005.
  
  But the Broncos have the 15th–best offense in the country and the 20th–best defense. San Diego State is 45th and 55th, respectively. They play in the same conference so their numbers have been compiled against roughly the same opponents — the Broncos have just done better than the Aztecs.
  
  For example, last weekend San Diego State barely got past Colorado State, 18–15. Boise State thumped that same CSU team a month ago, 63–13.
  
  There have been some bright spots for the Aztecs. Their margin of victory over Air Force was slightly higher than Boise's; SDSU won by 14, Boise won by 11. And they both lost to TCU, although SDSU went down by 13 while Boise got edged by a single point.
  
  I'll go with Boise State by a couple of touchdowns.


• SMU at #11 Houston, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Houston has won five in a row against SMU and eight of nine since 1994.
  
  This was something of a rivalry in the last couple of decades of the old Southwest Conference when both schools were contenders — albeit in different seasons — for the national title. SMU had been a member of the SWC since 1918, but Houston didn't join until nearly 60 years later.
  
  As SWC competitors, the schools and their fans just about saw it all in their series — video game–like scores (Houston put 95 points on SMU in 1989), old–fashioned defensive struggles (SMU won a 10–3 decision in 1986, and Houston won a 13–11 game in 1980) — or they thought they did.
  
  Houston has a five–game winning streak against SMU that dates back to 2006. Neither team had ever won more than three in a row against the other before — and now undefeated Houston has a chance to double that achievement with its sixth straight victory.
  
  Like old times, Houston has one of the nation's most prolific offenses, and I expect it to win the day against the Mustangs.


• Indiana at #12 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on the Big Ten Network: Michigan State has every reason to believe the Spartans will win this game. They've beaten the Hoosiers in 16 of the 20 games the teams have played since 1987.
  
  The teams are virtually indistinguishable on offense, but there is a huge gap between Michigan State's third–ranked defense and Indiana's defense, which is ranked 106th.
  
  I'll go with Michigan State.


• Kentucky at #13 Georgia, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: A win over Kentucky will clinch the SEC East for Georgia, and the recent history of this series suggests that it is practically a done deal.
  
  The Bulldogs have won all but two of the last 14 games between the schools — and, in true SEC fashion, Georgia has a decided advantage on defense. But Georgia also has a clear edge on offense.
  
  The bad news for the Bulldogs, though, is that Kentucky was the winner the last time the teams played in Georgia two years ago.
  
  But that, as they say, was then, and this is now. I expect Georgia to win this game.


• Citadel at #14 South Carolina: This game means nothing in the SEC East race. Citadel isn't even a member of the SEC.
  
  South Carolina, in fact, can have no further influence on the race. The Gamecocks' fate is entirely in the hands of others. If Georgia beats Kentucky, Georgia wins the division. If Georgia loses, South Carolina wins based on holding the head–to–head tiebreaker.
  
  It's been more than 20 years since these teams met on the gridiron — and they never faced each other regularly. No real emotion involved here. Just a bit of a warmup for the postseason.
  
  South Carolina should win with no problem.


• #15 Wisconsin at Illinois, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The home team tends to win when these teams play, which should favor Illinois.
  
  The home team doesn't always win, though. In fact, the home team has failed to win half of the games played since 1995 — and that should favor Wisconsin.
  
  The Badgers have a Top 10 offense — which figures to be tested by Illinois' ninth–ranked defense.
  
  Wisconsin, though, is even better on defense (ranked sixth) — and that is bad news for Illinois (65th in offense).
  
  If the Badgers aren't distracted, I expect Wisconsin to stay on track for its showdown next week with Penn State.


• #16 Kansas State at Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on FX: Texas has beaten KSU two–thirds of the time the Wildcats have traveled to Austin, and none of the numbers — except maybe the rankings — suggest that anything will be different this time.
  
  The Longhorns have been better — albeit marginally so — on offense and defense.
  
  I'll take Texas.


• #17 Nebraska at #20 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the first regular–season game between these two teams since John F. Kennedy was president.
  
  In fact, this will be the seventh time these teams have faced each other, but the first three games were played before the end of World War I.
  
  Their last two meetings were in bowl games — the Fiesta Bowl in January 1986 and the Alamo Bowl in December 1995.
  
  This season, Michigan has been more successful on both offense and defense than Nebraska, and the Wolverines have the advantage of playing before the home crowd.
  
  I'll pick Michigan to win.


• Colorado State at #19 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Colorado State was the winner when these schools met for the first time in 1998.
  
  But TCU won the next seven contests and appears likely to win this one as well.
  
  All the numbers suggest it.
  
  TCU (8–2) has a far better offense and defense than Colorado State (3–6). What's more, CSU hasn't won since September. TCU is coming off a huge victory over Boise State.
  
  Unless the Horned Frogs allow themselves to be distracted by their own success, I expect TCU to win the game.


• #21 Penn State at Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Considering that Penn State narrowly lost to Nebraska after a week of almost incomprehensible distraction, I think the Nittany Lions showed considerable resiliency.
  
  And, even though this week's game is on the road (where Ohio State is 9–6 in its series with Penn State), I have a feeling the Nittany Lions might win. They have a Top 10 defense going against an offense that isn't ranked in the Top 100.
  
  Win or lose, Penn State's postseason fate won't be sealed this Saturday. The Leaders Division will be decided the following weekend, when Penn State and Wisconsin, both currently 8–2, meet in Madison.
  
  If both teams take care of business this weekend, that showdown will guarantee a 10–win season for the victor. And I think Penn State will take care of business against Ohio State.


• Virginia at #23 Florida State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams have played 16 times since 1992, and Virginia has won only twice.
  
  Even more ominously for the Cavaliers, both of those wins came in Virginia. They have never beaten the Seminoles in Florida.
  
  Despite the lopsided nature of the outcomes, though, many of the games have been close. But almost all of those games were played in Charlottesville. The eight games that have been played in Tallahassee have been far more decisive — with the exception of a game played in 1996, Florida State has won every game there by at least 21 points.
  
  In fact, the margin in both of the last two games played in Tallahassee was 33 points.
  
  I don't think it will be quite that lopsided this time. Both teams are 7–3, and Virginia is still in the race for a berth in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers have a season–ending game with Virginia Tech, the team they must overtake to win their division. Holding the head–to–head tiebreaker could do the trick.
  
  The Seminoles, meanwhile, lost to Clemson, the team they trail by a single game in the ACC's Atlantic Division — but, with only one conference game left for each to play, there simply isn't any way for FSU to win it.
  
  Both teams have been pretty good on defense, fairly average on offense. Virginia may have more to play for, but that could work against them, almost distracting them from the task at hand. I think Florida State will play a more stable game and make fewer mistakes.


• Boston College at #24 Notre Dame, 3 p.m. (Central) on NBC: Between 1999 and 2008, Boston College won seven out of eight contests with Notre Dame.
  
  But the last two games have belonged to Notre Dame and I think this one will, too.

Last week: 14–6

Season: 174–43

Taking Sides

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The Penn State story — and it really isn't necessary for me to elaborate on that at this point, is there? — is one that will not go away.

I was talking about it with my father yesterday. A lifelong sports fan, he reminded me during our conversation that, when choosing sides in a game, he ordinarily prefers to support a team rather than oppose one.

It's kind of like voting, really. My parents preferred to vote for someone they admired rather than against someone they despised, but they didn't always have a choice. Sometimes, they had to select "the lesser of two evils."

Dad said that, until the middle of last week, he hadn't decided whether he would root for Nebraska or Penn State in today's football game.

He's always been relatively neutral about both football programs. There are some football teams he just doesn't like, for one reason or another (and some of them go back to things that most people either never knew or forgot long ago), and he pulls against them on a regular basis, but, as I say, he's always been neutral about Nebraska and Penn State.

Maybe it's a regional thing. Dad respects Nebraska and Penn State and their accomplishments. But he was born and raised in the South, and he prefers to pull for a good Southern team any day. Once, when I was in high school, my family went to New Orleans during the Christmas break, and we attended the Sugar Bowl football game. Penn State was playing Alabama, and my father pulled for Alabama. It was a Southern team, and, even though my father was opposed to the governor of Alabama, George Wallace, he didn't hold that against the football team.

Anyway, when we spoke yesterday, he still wasn't speaking about pulling for either team today — but he said he had decided which one he would pull against. Penn State, of course.

I understand his anger and frustration, and there probably were millions of football fans who watched the game and pulled for Nebraska because of what happened at Penn State. (Those who did surely were pleased with the outcome.)

But that wasn't really fair.

Joe Paterno deserves to be the target of people's anger. He is no longer the coach. But he isn't the only guilty party.

The headline writer in me kind of wishes that the perpetrator of the child abuse, retired assistant coach Jerry Sandusky, had been a basketball coach — because the evidence of his guilt is so great that the case against him appears to be a slam dunk for the prosecution.

He, too, is no longer on the Penn State coaching staff.

But pulling for the team to lose, it seems to me, amounts to punishing the team and the students — and that is guilt by association.

The incident that led to the unraveling of the Penn State coverup took place nearly a decade ago when the victim was 10 years old. Most of the players who took the field today are the victim's contemporaries. Any one of them could have been — and, when all the details are known, it may be revealed that some were — assaulted around the same time.

It may have been blind luck if some or all of them were spared.

If we do not blame the victim — and I have heard no one who has — it is not fair for us to blame his teammates, either (that is, if he became a member of Penn State's football team).

Or his classmates, for that matter. There are roughly 45,000 students on Penn State's flagship campus. At a major university like that, which recruits athletes from across the country, the likelihood that any of your high school classmates would also be your teammates in college is probably very small — but there are bound to be some of your high school classmates in the general university population.

I grew up in Arkansas, in a town that was more than a bump in the road — but it wasn't a city, either. My graduating class set a school record — which is bound to have been eclipsed, probably on more than one occasion, since then — with slightly more than 300 graduates.

I went to college at the University of Arkansas, the largest campus in the state, and its enrollment at the time was about one–third of Penn State's on–campus enrollment today. I encountered at least one–tenth of my high school classmates there, either in class or in the campus bookstore — or at a Razorback football game.

I even knew some of the people who played in the band at the football games — so I know it is more than possible that the young man has run into people from his hometown if he is part of the Penn State student body.

Whether that young man is now a student at Penn State or not, though, his contemporaries there held a candlelight vigil last night for him and the other victims.

Well, they did it for themselves, too. There can be no doubt that, after the week they have endured, the students desired closure — and a return to semi–normalcy. Some also probably wanted to relieve any feelings of guilt they may have.

But I think they also wanted to express their solidarity with the victims in some way.

They weren't to blame for what happened — or what was done to cover it up. They should not be made the scapegoats.

Role Models

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Everyone has an opinion on the tragedy at Penn State.

I've been trying to avoid jumping in because, frankly, the pool seems pretty crowded.

But, when you get past the posturing and the judging, it still comes down to one thing, even though that one thing often seems to get lost.

Children were victimized by adults — in the original assault and in the effort to cover it up.

They are the victims — not Joe Paterno, not Jerry Sandusky, not Graham Spanier, not anyone in Penn State's administration — although, in true football fashion, there's been plenty of misdirection.

And even some who have defended the actions — or inactions, if you prefer — of the adults.

I have known about this matter for only a few days, and my conscience won't permit me to remain silent any longer.

But silence has been the problem at Penn State, as it has been in other organizations, for a long time.

In fact, until Penn State dismissed Paterno for not doing anywhere near enough after he became aware of his assistant's crimes, it seemed that the university would do as others have done — and conclude that protecting the institution is more important than justice for children.

Our society talks a good game when it comes to protecting children — but it is rare when a mafia mentality of circling the wagons and protecting one's own, even when one's own is clearly guilty, does not take over, and the code of silence descends on all.

In schools. In churches. In athletic locker rooms.

The really heinous part of this is the betrayal of the faith that children place in authority figures — like parents, coaches, pastors and teachers. Children don't always outgrow that absolute allegiance, either. Some adults continue to revere the authority figures from their childhoods long after those authority figures are revealed to be less than superheroes.

(My understanding is that the assistant who witnessed the assault waited a day before taking it to Paterno. He had to consult with his real father first.)

Those relationships have lives of their own, and so do violations of that trust. They live on, influencing others in due course. Whether one prays or not, the victims deserve whatever support we can give them. Most, if not all, will struggle with this for years.

Paterno, in an attempt to appear gracious after his dismissal, urged everyone to pray for the victims, and, on the surface, that does seem to be generous and compassionate.

But "JoePa," the father figure for countless young men, was not being selfless. He was being selfish.

It was face–saving misdirection.

A football coach to the end, he tried to fake out everyone with a little play–action that would give the appearance that he still called the shots. He would leave when the season was over — which, presumably, would have included the Big Ten Championship Game (if the Nittany Lions qualified for it) and perhaps the Rose Bowl.

That would have been the proper way for college football's winningest coach to exit.

He was still trying to exercise control in a situation where he had no more. He lost his credibility when he abandoned his responsibility.

And it is to the credit of Penn State's trustees that they were not faked out.

I have heard it argued by some that it is not always easy to know what to do, that Paterno may have believed he did what was expected of him, and I will concede that point. But JoePa was obliged to do more than the minimum. He occupied a special place in the state of Pennsylvania, not just Penn State.

In most places, a coach does not have more power than the school president, but coaches like Paterno do. With such authority comes an obligation to go beyond the very least that you can do. There may have been acceptable reasons for his actions — and, more significantly, his inactions — but that does not excuse the fact that, when he was told that a member of his staff had assaulted a child, he was obligated to do more than pass the buck, and he did not.

Maybe there was a time when he understood the special role he played in molding the lives that were placed in his care — perhaps, early in his tenure at Penn State, when he watched Woody Hayes strolling the Ohio State sidelines in three encounters in the 1970s.

I thought of Hayes when all this surfaced about Penn State. Hayes was another role model from an earlier era whose career came to an abrupt end under less than ideal circumstances — when he punched an opposing player whose interception secured a bowl game victory for his team.

Everyone always knew that Hayes was a volatile drill sergeant kind of guy, a human volcano, barking out orders and demanding that his players give every ounce of energy to the cause. His bark may have been worse than his bite, but nobody wanted to hear his bark.

Even so, Hayes was considered the kind of man that young men could look up to, and countless fathers wanted their sons to play football for him.

That changed in the blink of an eye.

A role model is expected to do more than talk the talk. He is expected to walk the walk, too.

I guess I first thought of Hayes' case in relation to Paterno's when I heard people say — as I have been saying for years — that Paterno should have retired a long time ago. I was reminded of something I read when Hayes was dismissed.

"People keep saying that Woody Hayes is a great football coach who overstayed his time," wrote the great Red Smith in 1979. "This implies that there was a time when slugging a member of the opposing team was proper coachly deportment."

Or that there was a time when it was OK for a coach to pass the buck when his assistant — who was, for a time, regarded by many as his hand–picked successor — sexually assaulted a child in the locker room.

Oregon-Stanford Showdown Set

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College football fans may be feeling something of a letdown with the LSU–Alabama game reduced to a memory, but there's another major showdown this weekend — the Pac–12 battle between #3 Stanford and #6 Oregon.

Stanford is unbeaten and boasts the front runner for this year's Heisman Trophy. But the Ducks, who beat Stanford by three touchdowns last year, have only lost once — to currently top–ranked LSU on Labor Day weekend.

And, while Stanford may have the top candidate for the Heisman on its roster, Oregon's offense has been just as productive.

If there is one thing that is clearly in Stanford's favor, though — besides the fact that the game is being played in California — it is that Stanford's defense has been so much better — and, consequently, may prove to be the difference.

The winner will almost certainly be the champion of the Pac–12 North and will play USC, Arizona State or UCLA for the conference crown in December.

Idle: #7 Oklahoma

Thursday

• #10 Virginia Tech at #20 Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the ninth time these teams have played each other, and the first eight games have followed a recognizable pattern.
  
  Georgia Tech won the first encounter, then Virginia Tech won the next two. Georgia Tech won their fourth encounter, then Virginia Tech won the next two. Georgia Tech won their seventh meeting, then Virginia Tech won last year.
  
  Consequently, Virginia Tech should win this time, right? But two of Georgia Tech's three victories over Virginia Tech have come when it was the host team, as it is this week.
  
  The numbers favor Georgia Tech, though. The Yellow Jackets have a far better offense, and their defense is close to Virginia Tech's.
  
  So I'm going to take Georgia Tech.


• #11 Houston at Tulane, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Most teams can only wish they dominated another the way Houston dominates Tulane.
  
  The teams have been conference rivals since 1996. Houston has won 10 of their 14 meetings, including the last eight (in five of those games, UH has scored more than 40 points; Tulane has exceeded 30 points only once in that time — and lost on that occasion).
  
  Houston's best–in–the–nation offense is light years ahead of Tulane's. Tulane has a slight edge on defense, but it isn't nearly enough to make up for the gap on offense.
  
  I pick Houston to win.

Saturday

• Western Kentucky at #1 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: What a time for Western Kentucky to be making its first–ever trip to Baton Rouge — the week after LSU's dramatic overtime victory over Alabama.
  
  Not much else to say, really. It would be an enormously shocking upset if Western Kentucky won, but I don't think that will happen. I pick LSU.


• #2 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Most people probably don't realize it, but these teams were playing each other long before the refugees from the old Southwest Conference (of which Texas Tech was one) joined the old Big Eight Conference to form the Big 12.
  
  They played each other for the first time during Franklin Roosevelt's first term as president. They even played in Japan once — during Ronald Reagan's last year in the White House.
  
  This will be the 39th meeting in the series and the 20th to be played in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13–3–3 against the Cowboys in Lubbock — but Oklahoma State won there last year, snapping a winless streak in Lubbock that went all the way back to the days of World War II, and Oklahoma State, with its third–ranked offense, looks too powerful.
  
  Historically, it would be much better for OSU to be playing this game in Stillwater, where the Cowboys are 10–8 against Texas Tech.
  
  Nevertheless, I pick Oklahoma State.


• #6 Oregon at #3 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In addition to being the marquee matchup of the week (probably nationally, certainly in the Top 25), this is an old series that began a few days before Warren Harding was elected president.
  
  This is the 72nd meeting between these schools, and Stanford holds a decisive edge, 41–29–1 — but Oregon has been far more successful in their head–to–head meetings in recent years. In fact, Oregon has won nine of the last 11 and handed Stanford its only loss last year.
  
  The Pac–12 is known as an offense–oriented conference, and both teams have top–notch offenses. Oregon is seventh in the country, and Stanford is eighth.
  
  Thus, the key to victory may be with the better defense, and that would be Stanford, ranked 18th nationally while Oregon is 62nd.
  
  I'll pick Stanford to win at home.


• #4 Alabama at Mississippi State, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have been playing each other since a few years after the turn of the last century, and Alabama almost always win.
  
  The Tide has rolled over the Bulldogs in both Tuscaloosa and Starkville, but the percentages are slightly more favorable for Mississippi State at home.
  
  I don't really think that will mean anything this time, but you never know. The SEC is the kind of conference in which the team with the worst record can beat the team with the best on, as they say, "any given Saturday."
  
  But Alabama won't be giving away anything this time, and I expect Alabama to win.


• TCU at #5 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: All three of the previous meetings between these schools came in bowls so all were neutral sites — technically.
  
  However, their first meeting was in the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl, which was played in Fort Worth, home of TCU. TCU won that game by a field goal, then lost the rematch in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, then won the third game in the next season's Fiesta Bowl.
  
  A brand–new chapter will be written in the series' history in Boise, and I pick Boise State, ranked 13th in both offense and defense, to prevail.


• Tennessee at #8 Arkansas, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Tennessee has won 10 of its last 12 games against Arkansas, but those two losses came in their last three trips to Fayetteville.
  
  What's more, Tennessee is winless in five SEC games while Arkansas' only SEC loss came against Alabama in September.
  
  The Razorbacks have the 23rd–best offense in the nation (easily superior to Tennessee, ranked 97th). Tennessee's defense is 31st and may be able to keep pace with Arkansas' offense, but the 55th–ranked Arkansas defense appears more than capable of stopping the Volunteers.
  
  I'll take Arkansas.


• Wake Forest at #9 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Clemson has owned Wake Forest in this series, winning more than 75% of the time, and the dominance has been even more pronounced in the games at Clemson, where the Tigers are 34–7 against the Demon Deacons.
  
  In fact, Wake Forest has won only one of the last eight games it has played in Clemson.
  
  Is there any reason to think Wake Forest will be competitive in this game? Well, no, not really. Clemson is 15th in the nation in offense, far ahead of Wake Forest. On defense, Wake Forest has the edge, but it is so slight that it is hard to see the Deacons' defense turning things around.
  
  I'll take Clemson.


• #19 Nebraska at #12 Penn State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams are meeting as conference rivals for the first time, but they are hardly strangers to each other.
  
  However, no one has really been talking about that.
  
  The first–ever conference clash between these two perennial powers has been overshadowed by the sex scandal that has rocked Penn State — and resulted in the firing of Joe Paterno — even though the Nittany Lions are the top contenders for the Leaders Division's berth in the Big Ten title game — and, with a record that is currently 8–1, could snare a spot in a BCS bowl game.
  
  That speaks volumes about the priorities in Happy Valley.
  
  There is no question that what has been unfolding at Penn State is a tragedy of immense proportions.
  
  These teams seemed to be permanently entrenched in the Top 10 when I was growing up, and they even played in the very first edition of the now–defunct Kick–off Classic in East Rutherford, N.J., but, oddly enough, they've never met in a bowl game.
  
  Nevertheless, this will be the 14th time they've played.
  
  Historically, the series is quite close. Nebraska has won six, Penn State has won seven. Typically, the home team wins. Nebraska is 4–2 at home against the Nittany Lions, and Penn State is 5–1 at home against the Cornhuskers.
  
  That would appear to favor the Nittany Lions — were it not for the distraction caused by this scandal.
  
  I don't know, at this point, who will be running the team on Saturday, but my personal guess is that Nebraska will buck the historical trend and win at Penn State.


• #13 Michigan State at Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Since 1990, Iowa is 10–5 against Michigan State and has won four of the last five.
  
  And a victory could put Iowa right smack in the middle of the Legends Division race. A loss would just about seal the currently 6–3 Hawkeyes' fate — and perhaps all but clinch the division title for the Spartans.
  
  Neither team has been terribly impressive on offense so defense may be decisive. If so, the advantage appears to belong to Michigan State, which is second only to Alabama in total defense. Iowa is 72nd in defense.
  
  I pick Michigan State to record a rare win in this series.


• #24 Auburn at #14 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: South Carolina's loss to Arkansas last week put Georgia in the SEC East driver's seat, but the Bulldogs are hardly home free.
  
  Speaking of home, the defending national champion Auburn Tigers will be coming to visit on Saturday. They can't possibly win the national title again, but they are ranked and there is a lot of history in this series that doesn't work in Georgia's favor.
  
  For one thing, the home team loses more often than it wins. Auburn is 22–15–2 at Georgia, and Georgia is 14–12–2 at Auburn. (Between 1916 and 1958, the teams played on neutral fields 39 times.)
  
  However, the Bulldogs have been much better on both sides of the ball, so I will pick Georgia to win at home — even though the home team doesn't usually win this game.


• Florida at #15 South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: These teams have met 31 times, and Florida has won 23.
  
  But times may be changing in this series. South Carolina won at Florida last year for the first time — ever. Before that, Florida was 18–1 against South Carolina since 1964.
  
  This year's game is in Columbia, where the Gamecocks have beaten Florida four times, most recently on Nov. 12, 2005. But you have to go back to the 1930s to find the only time when South Carolina won consecutive games against the Gators.
  
  That's the kind of history South Carolina is chasing this weekend. And if the Gamecocks can do it — and Georgia loses to Auburn — South Carolina could well be on its way to its second straight SEC Championship game.
  
  Neither offense has been impressive, and both teams have Top 20 defenses. South Carolina has an edge in both categories so I'll pick South Carolina in what should be a competitive game.


• #16 Wisconsin at Minnesota, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on the Big Ten Network: The series that eventually became known as the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe is in its third century, but only slightly more than half of the games between these two schools have actually been for that particular prize.
  
  The rest of the time, I suppose, it has been about pride and bragging rights.
  
  The Badgers appear to be significantly better on both sides of the ball so I'll take Wisconsin.


• Texas A&M at #17 Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There are two ways of looking at this series, I guess.
  
  On the one hand, it's been pretty competitive. The teams have played 14 times. A&M has won eight, Kansas State has won six.
  
  On the other hand, Kansas State has fared better — slightly — at home against the Aggies.
  
  The Aggies have a Top 10 offense (KSU's is 86th). The Wildcats are better on defense, but that really isn't saying much.
  
  If Texas A&M can manage to keep up its intensity in the second half — something the Aggies have struggled to do this year — I'll pick Texas A&M to win a mild upset.


• Washington at #18 USC, 2:45 p.m. (Central) on FX: Over the years, USC has had a decided advantage in this series.
  
  But, in recent years (well, the last two, anyway), it has been Washington that has been the winner.
  
  From 2002 to 2008, USC won every year, sometimes by ridiculous margins (56–0 in 2008, 51–24 in 2005) and sometimes by heart–stoppingly close ones (27–24 in 2007, 26–20 in 2006).
  
  Since the series began in the 1920s, USC has won more than 60% of the time. And I expect USC to get back on the winning track on Saturday.


• #21 Texas at Missouri, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Like most of the schools Texas has played, Missouri has compiled a losing record in its series with the Longhorns.
  
  This will be the 19th time the teams have played, and Texas has won all but three. But the bad news for Texas is that all three of those losses came in Columbia, where Saturday's game will be played.
  
  But Missouri hasn't beaten Texas since 1997 and has lost the last three games the two have played in Columbia. Since Missouri is heading for the SEC, this might be the Tigers' last chance to defeat Texas at home.
  
  The numbers say Missouri is marginally better on offense and Texas has a significant advantage on defense. That being the case, I will take Texas.


• #22 Michigan at Illinois, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These schools have been playing since 1898, and Michigan has won about three–quarters of the time — no matter where the game has been played.
  
  Michigan has a much better offense, and Illinois has a marginally better defense.
  
  I'll take Michigan to win.


• West Virginia at #23 Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This game will test Cincinnati's legitimacy as a Top 25 team.
  
  For one thing, the Bearcats are facing a formerly ranked team that would certainly like to return to the rankings — and beating a currently ranked team is probably the quickest route.
  
  For another, West Virginia has owned Cincinnati in this series. The Mountaineers have gon 7–1 in Cincinnati, but they lost there for the first time in their last visit (it was by only a field goal).
  
  This has the potential to be the most entertaining game of the weekend. West Virginia is better on both sides of the ball, and I think West Virginia will win the game.


• #25 Southern Miss at UCF, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: These teams have only been playing each other since 2005, but it's been a lopsided series in Southern Miss' favor.
  
  Southern Miss has won three in a row against UCF and is 5–1 overall. UCF is 0–3 at home in the series. That's dominant — albeit limited.
  
  Southern Miss has a much better offense, but UCF has a pronounced edge on defense, where it is ranked fifth.
  
  This will probably be considered an upset, but I'll take UCF.

Last week: 13–4

Season:160–37