A Narrow Escape

When I was growing up in Arkansas, I experienced many excruciating moments watching Razorback football games.

Rarely was it as excruciating as the Arkansas–Mississippi State game last weekend.

I grew up before overtime was part of the rules. In fact, I still recall the night I first learned that there was no overtime at any in college football, not even in bowl games. It was a New Year's Night, and I remember sitting down to watch the Orange Bowl with my father and some of his friends.

That year, the winner of the Orange Bowl was widely expected to be named national champion in the next day's poll, and my father and his friends were speculating about what might happen if the favorite lost or won by less than the point spread — or if the game ended in a tie.

(Strength of schedule was not a factor in those days.)

"They'll go into overtime," I confidently volunteered. (I was about 8 or 9 years old at the time.)

No, one of the men assured me, there was no overtime in college football.

I couldn't understand. How could that be? I had heard overtime mentioned in postseason games in every sport I had seen on television — even professional football. I knew college football games often ended in ties during the regular season ... but in what amounted to a playoff game?

I didn't care for that idea, but I could rationalize it: Pro football had overtime, but it had no two–point conversion. College football had no overtime, but it did have the two–point conversion — which gave a team some strategic flexibility. It was a tradeoff.

Now, of course, such differences do not exist.

Oh, they have different kinds of overtimes, and that still provokes some arguments. But when a title is on the line, they'll keep playing, college or pro, until one of the teams wins.

And both have the two–point conversion now.

Well, anyway, my alma mater — Arkansas — faced a tough Mississippi State team last Saturday and almost gave the game away.

It looked like Arkansas was on the verge of putting the game away, but MSU fought back, apparently inspired by the memory of their teammate, Nick Bell, who died earlier this month.

Well, to make a longer–than–expected story short, MSU was down by three late in the game and had the ball on Arkansas' side of the field after the Razorbacks fumbled around the 50. The Bulldogs had to settle for a field goal, and the game went into overtime.

Mississippi State got the ball first and promptly turned it over, and all Arkansas needed to do was kick a field goal to win, but the Razorbacks' kicker shanked it. So it went to a second overtime.

Arkansas didn't squander this opportunity, scoring a touchdown and forcing MSU to match it for the game to continue, but the Bulldogs couldn't do it and the Razorbacks will go into this Saturday's game against LSU with a 9–2 record.

Not bad — even if it has cost me a piece of my longevity.

All times are Central.

Today

• #17 Texas A&M at Texas, 7 p.m. on ESPN: Dave Curtis of The Sporting News says this is one of 10 games this holiday weekend that will play significant roles in shaping the postseason.
  
  Rarely have the Aggies been able to anticipate a Thanksgiving Day road encounter with their hated rivals with as much eagerness as this year's team — and all its fans — must certainly have anticipated this one.
  
  The Longhorns, as most people must know by now, have suffered through a painful season less than a year after playing against Alabama for the national title. They've lost home games to Iowa State, Baylor and UCLA. They also lost their Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma.
  
  Going into Saturday's game against cupcake Florida Atlantic, UT had lost four straight. The last time Texas lost three in a row was 1999. And, about once a decade (if that), the Longhorns have lost four in a row. They did it in 1997, 1988 and 1956. A few times, they've lost four out of five or six.
  
  Five straight losses would have been an all–time low.
  
  For the resurgent Aggies, who were expected to struggle to break .500 and secure a bowl bid, this is an opportunity to punch their ticket for a January bowl — and who better to achieve that against than Texas? The Aggies have enjoyed limited success in Austin in recent years, with only one win in their last six visits.
  
  It's a real role reversal, as Richard Justice writes in the Houston Chronicle.
  
  All eyes will be on the Aggies when they have the ball. A&M's offense is ranked 15th in the nation, but it will be up against the eighth–ranked defense. Those should be dramatic possessions.
  
  The outcome may depend on what happens when Texas' 60th–ranked offense must face A&M's #51 defense.
  
  To me, it looks like it could well be a typical UT–A&M Thanksgiving brawl. Well worth watching. And I pick Texas A&M to win — and deny the struggling Longhorns bowl eligibility.

Friday

• #20 Arizona at #1 Oregon, 6 p.m. on ESPN: Arizona has won only two of its last 11 encounters with Oregon, and the numbers don't look too favorable for the Wildcats this time, either.
  
  Arizona's had a pretty good season, 7–3 record, currently ranked 20th in the nation in both offense and defense. But Oregon has been better in both categories, especially offense, and the Ducks are the hosts.
  
  I expect Oregon to hand Arizona its third straight loss.


• #2 Auburn at #9 Alabama, 1:30 p.m. on CBS: Alabama has beaten Auburn two years in a row, but Auburn was in control of the series for seven of the eight years before that.
  
  And, if Cam Newton is able to play for the Tigers, I expect Auburn to win this game, too. But a lot can happen, even on a holiday.
  
  With Newton, Auburn has the sixth best offense in the nation. Without him, who knows? Alabama hasn't been too shabby on offense, either, ranking 26th in the country, and the numbers suggest that Auburn's 50th–ranked defense will struggle to contain the Tide.
  
  It's true the Tigers have given up a lot of points at times — more than 30 points to four of their last six foes. But they have exceeded 40 points on offense six times this season including 65 against Arkansas last month.
  
  Newton's been a mystery to most teams. If he can play, I expect him to baffle Alabama, too. But, as I say, a lot can happen.
  
  Anyway, assuming Newton is allowed to play, I pick Auburn to win the game.


• #3 Boise State at #19 Nevada, 9:15 p.m. on ESPN2: Boise State is 9–0 against Nevada since they've both been members of the Western Athletic Conference.
  
  Nevada enjoyed some success against Boise when they were both members of the Big West Conference. Boise has won four straight at Nevada; Nevada's last home win over Boise came in 1998.
  
  I'm not inclined to think Nevada (10–1) will reverse that trend this time — especially since Boise is so much better than Nevada on defense. That might seem odd, given the reputation Boise State (10–0) has established with its offense. But the truth is that Nevada actually is rated just ahead of Boise on offense. Meanwhile, Boise has the nation's second–best defense compared to Nevada's 67th–ranked unit.
  
  It might be competitive for a half, but I expect Boise State to seize control of the game and improve to 11–0.


• Colorado at #16 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: Four of the last five games in this series have belonged to Nebraska.
  
  Not too long ago, Colorado had the upper hand. But, most of the time, Nebraska has had the edge.
  
  This time, a win will put the Cornhuskers in the Big 12 championship game against (probably) the winner of the Oklahoma–Oklahoma State game.
  
  Nebraska has been far better than Colorado in both offense and defense. On offense, Taylor Martinez has been getting all the ink, but the Cornhuskers have managed to put together the nation's ninth–best defense, and it wouldn't surprise me if Nebraska puts the clamp on Colorado early and keeps it there the whole game.

Saturday

• #4 TCU at New Mexico, 3 p.m. on Versus: Dennis Dodd writes, for CBS Sports, that 11–0 TCU's chances for securing a BCS bowl bid got better with Nebraska's loss to Texas A&M last Saturday.
  
  That may be so. If Nebraska had not lost that game, the Cornhuskers surely would still be in the national championship discussion, but with two losses, they are much less likely to be a factor.
  
  At this stage of the season, I have to think that TCU will not stumble before the bowl bids are announced. If Auburn loses to Alabama on Friday, I don't see how TCU could be denied a spot in the title game.
  
  It doesn't seem likely that 1–10 New Mexico will get in the way.
  
  TCU has won five straight against New Mexico since both have been members of the Mountain West Conference. The wins have been a bit more lopsided when the games have been played at TCU. But this year's game is being played in New Mexico, where the scores have been somewhat closer. Even so, as I say, TCU has dominated New Mexico lately.
  
  I doubt that the score will be close this year. TCU is an easy choice.


• Northwestern at #5 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN: The home team has won the last five meetings. The visitor hasn't won since Northwestern won at Wisconsin 10 years ago.
  
  Northwestern has had a pretty good year, but the Wildcats, who won their first five games, have lost four of their last six. They will be hard pressed to win at Wisconsin.
  
  The Badgers are better on both offense and defense (significantly better on defense), and they will have the home crowd. Plus they're still hoping to go to Pasadena in January. I pick Wisconsin.


• #6 LSU at #12 Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. on CBS: LSU has dominated this series since Arkansas joined the SEC in 1992. The Tigers have won 11 of the last 18 games, including last year's heart–stopping victory in Baton Rouge.
  
  And that wasn't surprising, really. Arkansas has rarely beaten LSU on the road. But it's been a different story in Little Rock, where the Razorbacks have won five out of nine — and where this year's game will be played.
  
  Arkansas has been much better than LSU on offense. The Razorbacks are eighth in the nation; the Tigers are 90th.
  
  But LSU has a much better defense. The Tigers are fifth in the country; the Hogs are respectable at 38th.
  
  I'll take Arkansas at home.


• Oregon State at #7 Stanford, 6:30 p.m. on Versus: Oregon State has won seven of its last 10 games with Stanford, but before the 21st century began, Stanford tended to own Oregon State, compiling lengthy winning streaks.
  
  I get the feeling the pendulum is swinging back in Stanford's direction. Stanford has been much better on both offense and defense and should win handily.


• Michigan at #8 Ohio State, 11 a.m. on ABC: Ohio State–Michigan is one of the legendary rivalries in college sports.
  
  And the football games are usually competitive, although Ohio State has won the last six.
  
  Michigan may be the best possible example of how numbers can be deceptive. The Wolverines are #5 in the nation in offense with Denard Robinson pitching in nearly 140 yards a game on the ground. They've been better than the Buckeyes and quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who was mentioned prominently as a Heisman prospect before the season began.
  
  But Ohio State's defense is third in the nation, far better than Michigan. And the game will be played at The Horseshoe. I pick Ohio State.
  
  In fact, because Michigan's defense has been so bad this season, this game really could get ugly early. In anticipation of such a development, Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News thinks that coach Rich Rodriguez, who enjoyed a successful career at West Virginia before coming to Michigan three years ago, must go if Ohio State wins.
  
  Maybe Rodriguez should be polishing his resume.


• #14 Oklahoma at #10 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. on ABC: In Oklahoma, they were calling the OU–OSU rivalry "Bedlam" before I was born.
  
  Even in the years — and there have been many of them — when nothing special, except for in–state pride, was on the line.
  
  But, as Jenni Carlson points out in The Oklahoman, this year's game, with a trip to the conference championship game hanging in the balance, is "the biggest game in [OSU] history."
  
  And if they were playing it in Norman, OSU probably should be nervous. The Cowboys haven't won there since 2001.
  
  On the other hand, it has been nearly as long since the Cowboys last beat Oklahoma in Stillwater. That was in 2002.
  
  So, if you're keeping score at home, that means OSU has lost its last seven encounters with the Sooners. Why should the Cowboys think they can win this time? Especially when you consider that, as Carlson observes, "this was supposed to be a rebuilding year" for OSU.
  
  Well, it ain't defensive performance. Oklahoma's defense, once feared from coast to coast, is currently 62nd in the nation. That looks good, though, compared to Oklahoma State (78th on defense).
  
  On offense, Oklahoma State is currently the best in the land, even more productive (by 10 yards per game) than top–ranked Oregon. In fact, OSU is averaging more than 80 yards per game more than OU (which is 13th in the nation in offense).
  
  Since neither defense seems prepared to stop the other team, I expect a high–scoring game — with Oklahoma State eventually winning it and moving on to next week's Big 12 title game against Nebraska.


• #11 Michigan State at Penn State, 11 a.m. on ESPN2: Michigan State has won only four of 17 games against Penn State since 1993.
  
  But the numbers favor the Spartans this time. The offense is ranked 37th with Kirk Cousins passing and Edwin Baker running. Penn State, on the other hand, is 66th. Both teams are better on defense, but, again, Michigan State (#28) is better than Penn State (#48).
  
  I expect Michigan State to win.


• Virginia at #13 Virginia Tech, 11 a.m. on ESPN3.com: The Hokies have beaten the Cavaliers six straight times, and they've won their last five home games against the Cavs.
  
  Is there any reason for Virginia to think it can turn things around this time? Well, actually, Virginia's offense is ranked higher than Virginia Tech's.
  
  Tech's quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, is 12th in the country, but he might struggle against Virginia's pass defense, which is ranked 29th in the nation.
  
  Overall, however, Virginia is 80th in the nation in defense, thanks to a run defense that is one of the worst. And I have to think the Hokies, who have the country's 19th–best ground game, will find a way to exploit it.
  
  I pick Virginia Tech.


• #15 Missouri at Kansas, 11:30 a.m. on FSN: If Nebraska loses to Colorado on Friday, this game could propel Missouri into the Big 12 championship game. But, if Nebraska wins the game, this game will be virtually meaningless.
  
  Either way, they will know prior to kickoff if anything like a divisional title is riding on the outcome.
  
  Missouri has been considerably better on offense and defense and should win, even if a Big 12 championship game berth is no longer available.


• #18 South Carolina at Clemson, 6 p.m. on ESPN2: This is the last tuneup for the Gamecocks prior to their SEC championship game showdown with currently second–ranked Auburn.
  
  I'm inclined to pick South Carolina to win the game — as long as the Gamecocks don't look too far ahead and remember that Clemson is no pushover (the Tigers have won 16 of their last 22 meetings with South Carolina).
  
  South Carolina has the better offense, but beware. Clemson has the better defense. Which will prevail?
  
  I'm going to pick South Carolina.


• #21 North Carolina State at Maryland, 2:30 p.m. on ESPN2: N.C. State beat Maryland last year, snapping a three–game Maryland winning streak.
  
  It is still possible for N.C. State to tie Florida State for the ACC's Atlantic Division crown. By virtue of the Wolfpack's win over the Seminoles a month ago, N.C. State would win the tiebreaker.
  
  There isn't much difference between N.C. State's record and Maryland&pos;s, but N.C. State has been better on both offense and defense. So, even though Maryland has beaten N.C. State four of the last five times the teams have played in Maryland, I predict North Carolina State will win this game and go on to play Virginia Tech for the ACC title.


• Florida at #22 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN: Florida enters this rivalry game with a six–game winning streak against Florida State.
  
  These two schools have accounted for four Heisman Trophy winners since 1993 so you might think that tradition favors offense, but both are rebuilding their offenses this season. Both have been better on defense; in Florida's case, a lot better. The Gators are 10th in the nation on defense, so I will take Florida to win.


• Brigham Young at #23 Utah, 2:30 p.m. on The Mtn.: This has been a pretty competitive series, with each team winning 10 of the last 20 meetings.
  
  What does this season tell us? Well, both teams have been pretty good on defense, but Utah has the edge. On offense, the advantage is more decisive. I pick Utah.


• #24 Iowa at Minnesota, 2:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network: Iowa has dominated this series lately, winning eight of the last nine meetings.
  
  Neither team has been particularly impressive on offense, but Iowa does have the 14th–best defense in the country. And that should be sufficient to give Iowa its fourth win in its last five trips to Minnesota.


• #25 Mississippi State at Ole Miss, 6 p.m. on ESPNU: In Mississippi, they call this game the Egg Bowl — or the Battle for the Golden Egg, and this year's edition of the game will be the 107th.
  
  If that "egg" part seems baffling, it is because it is a reference to the shape of the football that was in use more than 80 years ago.
  
  Since 2004, the home team has won every game. Mississippi State hasn't won at Ole Miss since 1998.
  
  I think that will change. I pick Mississippi State.

Last week: 14–3

Season: 193–42

The Power of Prayer

I can sympathize with Detroit Lions fans.

Really, I can. As I have written many times before, I have been a Green Bay Packers fan since I was a child.

If you aren't old enough to remember the time before Brett Favre came to Green Bay, there were many grim seasons for the Packers — occasionally interrupted by a season or two that transcended mediocrity — between the Vince Lombardi era and the Brett Favre era.

When I hear the phrase "long–suffering fan," I know precisely what it means. I've been one, and I probably will be one again, perhaps not with the Packers, perhaps with some other team that I follow.

It just seems to me that everyone, at one time or another, knows what it is like to support a team that never — or almost never — wins.

Your favorite team doesn't always win the championship; heck, it doesn't always make it to the playoffs. Football fans here in Dallas (who went into the season thinking the currently 3–7 Cowboys would become the first team to host a Super Bowl) have been coming to grips with that very reality this year.

I'm not talking about narrowly missing the playoffs, either. I'm talking about (seemingly habitually) finishing so far out of the playoff race that you feel like one of the jockeys who rode the horses that Secretariat left in the dust at the 1973 Belmont Stakes.

Around here, of course, football is king. But there are baseball fans here, and life has not been easy for them. Texas Rangers fans know all about that long–suffering jazz. It took them nearly four decades to reach the World Series. Winning one, apparently, is going to take awhile longer.

But even the Rangers' suffering pales when compared to the Lions'.

The Lions haven't had a winning season in a decade. They haven't been in the playoffs since 1999. They haven't won a division title since 1993. They haven't played for a conference championship in nearly 20 years. They haven't won one in more than 50 years.

They recently set a new standard for futility, losing their 25th consecutive road game. Fittingly, that milestone was achieved against a team that had lost all of its games this season.

The Lions' fans know how that feels, too. They went 0–16 a couple of years ago. Only one other team in modern NFL history has lost all of its games, and that was before the NFL started playing 16–game schedules.

When you consider their history, you have to wonder what could possibly entice anyone in Detroit to go to Ford Field where the 2–8 Lions will play the 8–2 New England Patriots tomorrow.

I mean, along with the fact that the Lions just plain stink, as usual, the temperature is supposed to be in the 30s tonight, and the predicted high temperature tomorrow is 48°.

The game is indoors, of course, but the elements won't be too pleasant, even if exposure to them will be brief — there's a 90% chance of rain in Detroit tomorrow, and, even if the only time one must spend in it will be the time it takes to get from one's car to the stadium, who wants to spend any time on Thanksgiving in a cold rain?

It is in just such conditions, however, that a couple of Christian leaders from Detroit are planning to hold a prayer vigil for the Lions.

Apparently, this began when Derrick Hills of the Communications Ministry called a sports radio show and "realized that something needed to be done to make a difference and to help our struggling team improve."

Anyway, tomorrow Hills and a Detroit–area Baptist minister are going to hold a prayer vigil for the Lions near one of Ford Field's gates. It's set for 11 a.m. local time, about 90 minutes before kickoff.

It's probably safe to assume that Detroit will not have reached its predicted 48–degree high by 11 a.m.; it is probably also safe to assume that it will be raining at that time. I'm thinking this prayer vigil could be a good test for the commitment of Detroit football fans to the local team.

"I believe that if we all can come together and pray that we can assist in making the Detroit Lions a truly competitive team who can one day become a Super Bowl champion," Hills said.

Now, I know that there are people who believe — some devoutly — in the power of prayer, but that seems improbable.

Say Good Night, Brett

Perhaps this will seem like piling on so I'll keep it short.

As I have mentioned here before, I have been a Packers fan since I was a little boy. I suffered through many bad years ... and then Brett Favre came along.

Favre brought excitement to Packers games, which I seldom saw on TV until he started calling the signals. Then the Packers started winning, and that made them attractive to TV viewers.

In the 1990s, Favre took the Packers to two straight Super Bowls. He was the Most Valuable Player three straight years. The Packers, once a hapless, at times buffoonish franchise, went through 13 consecutive non–losing seasons.

It was a great time to be a Packers fan. Those truly were the days, my friend. I thought they'd never end.

Well, that's not really true. I mean, I knew they would end eventually. But, like all those other Packer fans who suffered through those dismal pre–Favre seasons, knowing it would happen someday and being ready for it when it actually happened were two different things for me.

I remember how I felt the day that Favre called it quits the first time, in March of 2008. I regretted the end of a great career.

But that regret has faded as we have gone through the annual will–he–or–won't–he retire ritual.

And today, Favre's Vikings lost to the Packers in Minnesota by four touchdowns.

Favre's successor, Aaron Rodgers, made plays like Favre used to make — and, in the process, reminded everyone that time marches on.

I hope Favre got the message.

It's time to go, Brett.

College Football's Memorable Week

Last weekend was a memorable weekend in college football.

I don't mean it was memorable in the sense that the top–ranked team got knocked off. That didn't happen — although we have had a few of those this season.

For that matter, though, it did look, for a time, as if the #1 team just might go down. But Oregon, which has been doing its collegiate–level impression of the 1999 St. Louis Rams' point–a–minute offense this season, held on for a 15–13 win over California.

And it wasn't a milestone weekend, either. Not really. Certainly not when you compare it to Joe Paterno getting his 400th coaching victory the week before.

But last weekend was special in a number of ways:

• For openers, it really is hard to top an 83–point performance.
  
  In regulation. Not overtime (and, typically, to score that many points requires multiple overtimes).
  
  But that is precisely what #6 Wisconsin did in its bludgeoning of Indiana. I guess the Hoosiers have had some experience giving up that many points — in basketball.
  
  It was a new experience in football. And it couldn't have been particularly pleasant.
  
  Even though Wisconsin turned matters over to its second– and third–teamers midway through the game, still there were whispers about the Badgers running up the score to get the pollsters' attention.


• Big Ten fans may have felt last week that they were being slighted, what with all the stories emanating from the South — and few headlines from the Midwest. But there were other news stories in the region last weekend.
  
  One such story was the Iowa–Northwestern game, which had a lot of people talking. It was, as I predicted, decided by defense. But it turned out to be Iowa's defensive collapse that made news.
  
  And, as most people expected, #8 Ohio State defeated Penn State the week after Paterno's historic victory over that same Northwestern team that beat Iowa.
  
  But the Buckeyes didn't exactly win the game the way most observers expected.


• In these parts, I guess there was no bigger story last Saturday than #12 Oklahoma State defeating Texas in Austin.
  
  That hadn't happened since Franklin D. Roosevelt's presidency.


• The 22nd–ranked South Carolina Gamecocks secured their first trip to an SEC championship game with their win over #24 Florida.
  
  In an ironic twist, South Carolina's coach, Steve Spurrier, enjoyed his greatest previous coaching triumphs at Florida.


• Spurrier and the Gamecocks will face #2 Auburn in December. The Tigers earned their spot in the SEC championship game with their win over Georgia.
  
  But a lot can happen between now and then. In fact, a lot can happen, Tony Barnhart of CBS Sports reminds us, before Auburn faces its in–state rival Alabama on the day after Thanksgiving — including the possibility of some sort of disciplinary action against all–everything Cam Newton.


• And, in Lincoln, Neb., the Cornhuskers continued their Big 12 farewell tour, closing out an uncomfortably one–sided series with Kansas.


• Well, I suppose no rundown on the events of last weekend would be complete without mentioning that two of college football's proudest (and unranked) programs, Notre Dame and Southern California, defeated ranked opponents.
  
  Southern Cal, by the way, took care of that unranked business with its victory. Notre Dame, while on the verge of becoming bowl eligible, remains unranked.

So the drama continues in college football.

Idle: #1 Oregon, #2 Auburn, #4 TCU, #23 Arizona. All times are Central.

Thursday

• Georgia State at #10 Alabama, 6:30 p.m. on ESPNU: I just don't see how Alabama can lose this game — even if the Crimson Tide is looking ahead to next week's game with Auburn.
  
  Alabama will roll.

Friday

• Fresno State at #3 Boise State, 8:30 p.m. on ESPN2: Boise State has won the last four meetings and would be 9–0 since becoming Fresno's conference rival in 2001 if the streak had not been interrupted by a Fresno victory in 2005.
  
  Boise is in the top 4 in the nation on both offense and defense. Fresno isn't even close. I pick Boise.

Saturday

• Ole Miss at #5 LSU, 2:30 p.m. on CBS: LSU has won seven of its last 10 against Ole Miss.
  
  But that tidbit overlooks a few things, one of which is that Ole Miss has won the last two meetings.
  
  Then again, those were Houston Nutt's first two seasons at the helm. Ole Miss played a lot better in those seasons.
  
  What do the numbers tell us about this season? Well, Ole Miss has been a lot better on offense than LSU, but LSU has been a lot better on defense. In fact, LSU is fifth in the nation on defense.
  
  And defense, along with the home crowd, will make the difference. I pick LSU.


• #6 Wisconsin at Michigan, 11 a.m. on ESPN: In this series, it seems, the home team always wins.
  
  Well, at least it has been that way since 2002. Prior to that, Michigan won at Wisconsin fairly routinely but not vice versa. Wisconsin's last win at Michigan came in 1994.
  
  Both teams have been good on offense; Michigan has been spectacular, ranking fifth in the nation. But a wretched defense has been holding the Wolverines back. And it is Michigan's defensive deficiencies that I believe will allow Wisconsin to get its first win in Ann Arbor in the 21st century.


• #7 Stanford at California, 2:30 p.m. on FSN: They call this the "Big Game," and it is one of the oldest of college football's rivalries.
  
  This has been a pretty even series for the last 20 years, but it does run in cycles. The 1990s belonged to Stanford. The last decade has belonged to Cal.
  
  This time, most fans probably will be interested in what happens when Stanford's 14th–ranked offense faces Cal's 10th–ranked defense. It's true that the stars will be on the field whenever Stanford has the ball.
  
  But I'm inclined to think the issue might be settled when Cal has the ball. The Bears are 86th in the nation on offense and should be easy for the Cardinal's 32nd–ranked defense to handle.
  
  I'll take Stanford.


• #8 Ohio State at #21 Iowa, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: Ohio State is 16–3–1 in its last 20 games with Iowa, and, most of the time, the Buckeyes win at Iowa. But two of those losses (as well as the tie) have come in Iowa City.
  
  Both teams have Top 20 defenses, but Ohio State's D, which is second in the nation, should be up to the task of handling Iowa's somewhat average offense. I pick Ohio State.


• #9 Nebraska at #18 Texas A&M, 7 p.m. on ABC: Nebraska is 5–2 against Texas A&M (including one Big 12 title game victory) since the Aggies joined the conference in the mid–1990s.
  
  By a very narrow margin, the Aggies have had a better offense than the Cornhuskers have had. But it is reasonable to conclude that the Aggie offense is where it is because of the recent emergence of quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
  
  Still, A&M has scored 40 points or more five times this season so you can plausibly argue that Mike Sherman's offense deserves to be #12 in the nation.
  
  But a team that has yielded more than 21 points on five different occasions probably deserves to be where the Aggies' defense is — which is 55th in the nation. Nebraska's defense, on the other hand, is sixth in the nation.
  
  I expect the Aggies, who are currently 7–3, to finish the season at 8–4 with a respectable bowl bid. But I expect Nebraska to win this game.


• Purdue at #11 Michigan State, 11 a.m. on Big Ten Network: Each school has had its ups and downs, its good seasons and its bad, but in their last 30 head–to–head meetings, the outcome has been an even split — 14–14–2.
  
  In recent years, Michigan State has won the last three meetings. Before that, Purdue won seven out of eight. Before that, MSU won four out of five. See what I mean about ebbs and flows?
  
  All the numbers seem to favor Michigan State to make it four in a row against Purdue. The Boilermakers are 4–6; Michigan State is 9–1 and was, for much of the season, mentioned regularly in national championship conversations.
  
  The Spartans may yet factor into discussions of the national title, but they'll need some help that they aren't likely to get. In this contest, they shouldn't need much help. They have been much better on both offense and defense than the Boilermakers and they have the home field, too.
  
  I pick Michigan State.


• #12 Oklahoma State at Kansas, 11 a.m. on FSN: These schools were longtime rivals in the old Big Eight Conference, but they play in different divisions in the Big 12 and, therefore, don't meet every year.
  
  This will be their first meeting since 2007, when Kansas won at Stillwater. That snapped a five–game Oklahoma State winning streak. In fact, Kansas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State on the Jayhawks' home field since the teams' Big Eight days.
  
  And the numbers don't suggest that Kansas will win this time, either. Both teams are mediocre on defense, but OSU brings the nation's top–ranked offense to Lawrence. Kansas retaliates with the, er, um, 103rd–ranked offense.
  
  Oklahoma State should prevail.


• #13 Arkansas at #22 Mississippi State, 6 p.m. on ESPN: Mississippi State won the last time these teams met in Starkville — in 2008.
  
  That ended a nine–year Arkansas winning streak.
  
  The teams have been SEC rivals since 1992, and their series really is a tale of two decades. In the 1990s, Arkansas lost on three of its first four trips to Starkville as a member of the SEC — at a time when the Arkansas program was struggling and the Mississippi State program was thriving. But, in the 2000s, the Razorbacks were 4–1.
  
  Arkansas comes into this game with an edge on both sides of the ball. The defenses are fairly similar, but there is a decisive advantage for the Razorbacks on offense.
  
  I pick Arkansas.


• #14 Virginia Tech at #24 Miami (Florida), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN: These teams have faced off annually since 1992, and Virginia Tech holds a 10–8 lead in that time.
  
  Both teams have been successful on offense and defense; Miami has been better in both categories, especially defense, and I think Virginia Tech, no matter what kind of success it has enjoyed in recent weeks, may revert to that group that lost to James Madison earlier in the year.
  
  I pick Miami (Florida).


• #15 Missouri at Iowa State, 6 p.m. on FSN: You might not think so, considering that Missouri is ranked and Iowa State is not, but this has been a pretty competitive series.
  
  Since 1980, Missouri holds a 15–13–2 advantage.
  
  That doesn't necessarily mean I think it will be competitive this time. Missouri has a considerable advantage on offense and a lesser one on defense.
  
  Home field won't make up for that. I pick Missouri.


• #16 Oklahoma at Baylor, 7 p.m. on ESPN2: Oklahoma hasn't lost to Baylor since the two became conference rivals in 1996.
  
  That's 14 straight victories for the Sooners — 18, if you count the four victories OU rolled up over Baylor in the 1970s and 1980s, when the teams competed in different conferences.
  
  I don't believe Baylor has ever beaten Oklahoma, actually. Anyway, I have found no evidence of it.
  
  And, although Baylor has a slight edge over OU on offense, Baylor's defense has been much worse. Oklahoma's defense hasn't been spectacular this season, but it should be good enough. I'll pick Oklahoma.


• Troy at #17 South Carolina, 11:21 a.m. on SEC Network: Troy has only been playing football on the Division 1–A level since 2001.
  
  Since that time, Troy and South Carolina have met twice, and South Carolina has won both games.
  
  Troy is a somewhat bipolar team, possessing a Top 20 offense (ranked 18th) and a pitiful defense (ranked 103rd). South Carolina may come across as a bit erratic this week as well, coming off an historic victory over Florida that may have made the Gamecocks the final hurdle to a national championship game appearance for Cam Newton.
  
  But South Carolina is more consistent on defense (50th) and more likely to score with its 52nd–ranked offense.
  
  I pick South Carolina.


• New Mexico State at #19 Nevada: Nevada has won four of five against New Mexico State since 2005. The only blemish came two years ago — the last time the teams met in Reno.
  
  The numbers really don't suggest that anything like that is about to happen again. Nevada has the third–ranked offense. Its defense is only #69 in the nation — but there are at least 100 Division 1–A schools that are better than New Mexico State on offense and defense.
  
  I take Nevada.


• #20 Southern California at Oregon State, 7 p.m. on ABC: There are two ways of looking at this series.
  
  You can look at it over the long term, which favors USC. The Trojans have won all but three of their last 20 games against Oregon State.
  
  Or you can look at it over the short term, in which the home team has won the last four games. Since this year's game is being played in Corvallis, that favors Oregon State.
  
  Or does it?
  
  Both teams have been awful on defense. OSU has been a little worse than USC, but, truth be told, both have been truly terrible on defense.
  
  That leads me to conclude that whichever team brings more to the table on the offensive side of things is likely to be the winner. And that is Southern California, 16th in the nation on offense (whereas OSU is 92nd),
  
  I pick Southern California.


• #25 Utah at San Diego State, 9 p.m. on The Mtn.: Utah has won four straight against San Diego State, usually by ridiculous margins.
  
  But, between 1980 and 2005, Utah and San Diego State virtually split their series. Utah led, 11–10–1, during those years.
  
  I guess those years aren't really relevant. While San Diego State does have a modest edge over Utah on offense, the Utes have a pronounced advantage on defense.
  
  I pick Utah.

Last week: 17–5

Season: 179–39

JoePa's Achievement

I guess it is only fitting to recognize that Penn State's Joe Paterno achieved a milestone last weekend that may have the staying power of DiMaggio's hitting streak.

Paterno notched his 400th coaching victory when Penn State scored 35 unanswered points and beat Northwestern.

Nearly 30 years ago, when the legendary Paul "Bear" Bryant retired, he was the winningest coach in Division I–A with 323 wins. Since then, only a handful of coaches have eclipsed him and only two were on the Division I–A level.

One of those men, Bobby Bowden, has retired, and the other is Paterno, still coaching at the age of 83. He has been coaching the Nittany Lions since 1966.

Now, I'm a student of history. I've studied it all my life, minored in it in college. And it helps me to put these things into historical perspective. So here goes ... Lyndon Johnson was president when Paterno coached Penn State for the first time. That means there have been nine presidents during his tenure, including the current one. Three of those presidents have served two full four–year terms.

Paterno had been coaching at Penn State for more than 10 years when John Paul II became pope. And John Paul's turned out to be the second–longest papacy in the history of the Catholic church (third–longest if you include the undocumented duration of the papacy of the first pope, St. Peter).

Whenever Paterno does retire, literally generations of Penn State football fans will face a coaching transition that is all too familiar to followers of other sports teams but will be entirely new to them.

Culture shock of the highest order.

That's still sometime in the future, though, and some Penn State fans may prefer to occupy that cozy cocoon of denial — but the realists, like those who acknowledge that their parents are in a period in their lives when what once was deemed impossible seems not only possible but probable.

There have been whispers and rumors going around for years. As an example, Kevin Scarbinsky speculated in the Birmingham (Ala.) News more than three months ago that Paterno's days were numbered.

Indeed they are. All our days are numbered. JoePa, as I say, is 83. He is a mortal man, and, like all mortal men, he will die one day. Whether he has retired by that time or he collapses on the sidelines at a Penn State game remains to be seen.

It is certain, though, that his achievements will endure long after he is gone — and probably long after I am gone, too. I doubt that I will ever see another coach reach the milestone Paterno reached on Saturday. His nearest rival among active Division I–A coaches is Ohio State's Jim Tressel, who is a little more than halfway there.

Tressel, by the way, is Paterno's opponent this week.

Tressel is quite comparable to Paterno. For instance, JoePa has won about three–quarters of his games and so has Tressel.

When JoePa started at Penn State — and for a few years thereafter — college football teams only played 10 games in a regular season. There were fewer bowl games in those days, and there were years when truly deserving teams did not get to play in a bowl.

All things considered, though, Paterno has been remarkably successful at getting into bowls. He has done so about 80% of the time.

Tressel coaches in an era when teams can play in as many as 12 games during the regular season. Some conferences (not, at the moment, the Big Ten) play championship games at the end of the regular season so, with bowl bids and conference championships, some teams have the opportunity to play in as many as 14 games in a season.

Tressel has been coaching for about a quarter of a century. He is currently 57 years old. Think he can keep coaching for another quarter of a century?

Of course, it doesn't have to take quite that long to match Paterno. Tressel needs about 160 wins. Currently, he can't coach in 14 games in a season because the Big Ten does not presently play a championship game, but he could coach in 13 games per season.

And if he wins every game every year, he could, conceivably, pass Paterno around the year 2023. That's an unrealistic expectation, though.

On the other hand, if he wins about three–quarters of his games each year, as he has been doing — in other words, about 10 wins per season — he could get to 400 by 2027.

Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer is next on the list, only a few wins behind Tressel, but he had to work harder to get them. His winning percentage is around .667.

You'd have to figure that Beamer is a long shot to catch Paterno. He's 64. He does coach in a conference that plays a championship game, so he could, conceivably, coach in 14 games a season. But, at his present winning rate (which wasn't helped by that loss to James Madison earlier this season), he would need to coach about 18 more seasons to match Paterno — and Beamer would need to take Tech to the ACC title game and to a bowl game in each of those seasons for that to be possible.

Texas' Mack Brown is somewhere in between. He is 59 years old so he is a little older than Tressel, but he coaches in a conference that has a championship game so he could coach — at least in theory — in 14 games each year. His winning percentage is slightly better than Beamer's but he has farther to go. At the rate his teams have been winning, he could expect to catch Paterno in about 20 years.

No one else in Division I–A is even halfway to Paterno's total.

When Bryant retired at the age of 69, he was asked what he would do with his time. I'll probably croak in a week," he replied. And then, four weeks after his final game, Bryant did in fact die of a heart attack.

Bryant was only 69. One has to think that, if Paterno does retire, a similar fate may await him. Coaching gives him a sense of purpose.

Watch JoePa while you can. He is the last of a vanishing breed.

Tenth–ranked Michigan State is idle this week. All times are Central.

Tonight

• #4 Boise State at Idaho, 8 p.m. on ESPN2: Let's be clear about what this is. This is a mismatch.
  
  True, it is a conference game. But it is still a mismatch.
  
  Boise State has won its last 11 against Idaho and is really in no danger of losing this week.
  
  Idaho's defense is one of the worst in the nation, and it must try to stop the fourth–best offense, which is led by the nation's #1 passer, Kellen Moore. Idaho, meanwhile, is mediocre at best on offense and certainly no challenge for Boise State's defense.
  
  Boise State should make this its 12th straight win over Idaho.

Saturday

• #1 Oregon at California, 6:30 p.m. on Versus: Oregon has won six of the last 10 meetings, but Cal had won three in a row before Oregon won last year, 42–3.
  
  I guess everyone knows by now that Oregon has the best offense in the country, but did you know that Cal is ranked 12th on defense? That could produce something of a draw when Oregon is on offense. Maybe not — but it could.
  
  Cal's coach was once on Oregon's coaching staff — "the offensive coordinator for one of the greatest teams in Oregon football history," writes Ron Bellamy in the Eugene (Ore.) Register–Guard.
  
  And that factoid might really be more than the trivia item it is if he had been on Oregon's staff a year or two ago when most of the young men who are playing now were recruited.
  
  But Jeff Tedford has been coaching at Cal for nearly a decade now, and he has no first–hand insights to share with his players and staff. He can only marvel at what has been
  
  Seems to me this game may well be decided by what happens when Cal has the ball — and, in that regard, Oregon's advantage is more decisive.
  
  I pick Oregon.


• Georgia at #2 Auburn, 2:30 p.m. on CBS: This must be one of the more competitive ongoing series in the South. Since 1980, Auburn holds a 15–14–1 advantage over Georgia.
  
  Recently, the momentum has been with Georgia. The Bulldogs have won the last four encounters. And that includes the last two games played at Auburn.
  
  Plus, there could be some distractions for Auburn this weekend. Tom Fornelli writes, for CBS Sports, that the investigation into the recruitment of Heisman Trophy prospect Cam Newton is continuing. That could get in the way.
  
  If Auburn beats Georgia, the Tigers will clinch the SEC West, regardless of what happens in their season finale against Alabama. But that may not be an easy task.
  
  Clearly, Auburn's offense has been very productive. Newton has propelled it to #6 in the nation. But Georgia's defense may well be up to the challenge. It is ranked 15th in the nation, 13th against the run.
  
  Newton is a multi–faceted quarterback, but his ability to run has befuddled many defenses this year. It might not be so troublesome for Georgia.
  
  Meanwhile, Georgia's offense, ranked 54th, has been mediocre, but it might not have too much difficulty with Auburn's defense, which is 52nd in the nation. Even more interesting, Georgia's strongest offensive attribute, its passing game, might roll up some yardage against Auburn's porous pass defense, which is 95th in the nation.
  
  This is bound to be considered an upset, especially since the SEC East has struggled against the West this year, but I'm going to pick Georgia, which has won four of its last five after getting off to a sluggish start.


• San Diego State at #3 TCU, 3 p.m. on Versus: TCU is 5–0 against San Diego State since joining the Mountain West Conference.
  
  With the nation's #1 defense and #8 offense, TCU looks too powerful for San Diego State, even though the Aztecs have been pretty good on both sides of the ball — probably better than you think.
  
  There has been talk that TCU might wind up playing for the national title. Perhaps it is a long shot, but rumor has it that, if Auburn stumbles against Alabama or in the SEC championship game, TCU would be next in line to face Oregon in January.
  
  Seems to me that such talk amounts to jumping the gun, and, as long as TCU doesn't allow itself to be distracted by talk of what might be, TCU should win this game.


• Louisiana–Monroe at #5 LSU, 6 p.m. on ESPN3.com: LSU hasn't been terribly impressive on offense, but the Tigers' defense is sixth in the nation. That's a lot better than Louisiana–Monroe.
  
  With LSU coming off its victory over Alabama, it's probably a good thing that the Tigers get what looks like a breather this week.
  
  LSU should have little trouble winning this one.


• Indiana at #6 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. on ESPNU: Indiana has lost five in a row to Wisconsin, and it has been nearly 10 years since the Hoosiers won in Madison.
  
  If that isn't enough, Wisconsin has been a lot better on offense and defense — especially defense — than Indiana.
  
  Couple that with the home crowd, and I expect a Wisconsin win.


• #7 Stanford at Arizona State: For all intents and purposes, this has been an evenly divided series since 1993.
  
  But, in this series, it's worth noting that &mdash at least in the last 14 or 15 years — teams tend to win in threes.
  
  For example, Stanford won last year, but that snapped a three–year Arizona State winning streak. And, before that, Stanford won three in a row (from 1999 to 2001). And Arizona State won the three before that (from 1996 to 1998).
  
  Does that mean Stanford is about to embark on a three–year run of its own? Not necessarily. ASU has beaten Stanford at home every time they have met in Tempe in the 21st century.
  
  But the numbers suggest that history may be about to change for Stanford. Stanford is 13th in the nation in offense and should be able to handle Arizona State's 48th–ranked defense. When ASU has the ball, its 26th–rated offense may have more difficulty with Stanford's 37th–ranked defense.
  
  I expect Stanford to win.


• Penn State at #8 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN: Penn State has only beaten Ohio State six times in the 17 games they have played since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993.
  
  But the Nittany Lions won the last time they visited Columbus, snapping a six–game losing streak at The Horseshoe.
  
  I doubt that Penn State can duplicate that accomplishment, especially with its average–at–best offense and defense going up against Ohio State's units, which are in the Top 20 in both categories. it must be particularly daunting for the Nittany Lions' #68 offense, which must try to score against the Buckeyes' #3 defense.
  
  I'll take Ohio State.


• Kansas at #9 Nebraska: It would be hard to imagine a more one–sided series than this one.
  
  In the last 40 years, Nebraska is 38–2 against Kansas. And, in fact, Kansas has not won in Lincoln since 1968. Richard Nixon had not yet been elected president. The hits on the radio were "Hey Jude" and "Mrs. Robinson." Gas cost about 30 cents a gallon.
  
  Obviously, a few things have changed since then.
  
  Statistically, it doesn't seem that Kansas has a prayer. Nebraska is in the Top 25 in both offense and defense. Kansas' offense is 90th in the nation, and its defense is 87th. I pick Nebraska.


• #17 Mississippi State at #11 Alabama, 6:15 p.m. on ESPN2: Mississippi State has only won two of its last nine games against the Crimson Tide, and the Bulldogs hardly ever win when they travel to Alabama.
  
  Does that mean the Bulldogs are due? I don't know, but one thing I can say for sure. Coming into this game, Mississippi State is the team with the momentum. The Bulldogs have won six in a row. Alabama, meanwhile, lost to LSU last week, its second loss this season.
  
  'Bama is ranked higher in both offense and defense, and Alabama is at home. I'm guessing that Alabama will win, although I wouldn't be surprised if Mississippi State keeps it close.


• #12 Oklahoma State at Texas, 7 p.m. on ABC: Texas has won 12 in a row against Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys haven't won in Austin since Franklin D. Roosevelt was president.
  
  It's been a topsy–turvy kind of year for Texas, though. If the Longhorns lose to OSU, I think it will be the first time that Texas has lost to both OU and OSU in the same season. After Texas played for a national championship last January, I didn't think such a thing was possible.
  
  Of course, I wouldn't have thought that Baylor and Iowa State could beat Texas in Austin, either. Or that the Longhorns would go to Lincoln, Neb., and handle the Cornhuskers better than they did in last year's Big 12 title game.
  
  Brandon Chatmon has five reasons why Oklahoma State is winning, and he lists them in The Oklahoman.
  
  First on his list is the offensive line, and it's obvious the impact the line has had on the offense's productivity. OSU's offense is third in the nation, thanks to Kendall Hunter's running and Brandon Weeden's passing. But my guess is that OSU's offense will have its hands full with Texas' fifth–ranked defense.
  
  That's the marquee matchup, but the game may well be decided by what happens when Texas has the ball. The Longhorns' offense is an unimpressive 65th in the nation, but OSU's defense is a dismal 89th.
  
  Still, I feel more persuaded by Chatmon's observations — that OSU is only allowing one sack per game, that the Cowboys' defense hasn't been spectacular but it leads the Big 12 in turnover margin, special teams are better and key players have avoided injury this season.
  
  What's more, if you're Texas, home hasn't been the friendliest place to be this season.
  
  I'll go with Oklahoma State.


• #13 Iowa at Northwestern, 11 a.m. on ESPN: There was a time when Northwestern was an easy mark for Big Ten schools. But Iowa has struggled against the Wildcats, losing four of their last five encounters, and the Hawkeyes haven't won at Northwestern since 2001.
  
  Well, that's what is working against the Hawkeyes — along with the fact that the teams are both ranked 42nd nationally in offense.
  
  On defense, however, Iowa is eighth in the nation. Northwestern has been struggling and is 75th.
  
  I expect defense to be the difference, and Iowa will win the game.


• Texas–El Paso at #14 Arkansas, 6 p.m. on ESPNU: The last time these schools met, Arkansas was still in the Southwest Conference. It was 1989, and Arkansas handled UTEP, 39–7.
  
  As far as I know, that is the only time they have faced each other in football.
  
  QB Ryan Mallett has the Arkansas offense ranked 10th in the nation. The Arkansas defense is 27th. Meanwhile, UTEP's offense is 64th, and its defense is 66th. Advantage, Arkansas.


• #15 Utah at Notre Dame, 1:30 p.m. on NBC: I don't think these teams have ever played each other in football.
  
  Statistically, it doesn't appear to be much of a contest. The offenses are reasonably comparable, but Utah has the clear edge on defense. The Utes are 13th in the nation, while the Irish are 77th.
  
  I'll go with Utah.


• #16 Virginia Tech at North Carolina, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: Virginia Tech is 5–1 against North Carolina since joining the ACC in 2004.
  
  The exception came last year, when North Carolina won at Virginia Tech. Now, the Hokies are trying to return the favor on North Carolina's home field.
  
  The teams are about even on defense so the deciding factor should be offense. And, in that regard, Virginia Tech has the clear edge. The Hokies are 38th in the country; the Tar Heels are 61st.
  
  I pick Virginia Tech.


• USC at #18 Arizona, 7 p.m. on ABC: Arizona snapped a seven–game losing streak to USC last year with its 21–17 win in Los Angeles.
  
  Now, the Wildcats will be trying to do something they haven't done in nearly 10 years — beat USC at home.
  
  Since both teams are in the Top 20 nationally in offense, the pressure will be on the defenses to perform. USC, which is 97th in the nation in defense, simply can't keep up with Arizona; the Wildcats, on the other hand, are ranked 20th in the country in defense.
  
  Because they have the stronger defense, I'm picking Arizona to do something it hasn't done since 1999–2000 — and has rarely done since it joined the Pac–10: Win back–to–back games over Southern California.


• Texas Tech at #19 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: For the last six years, the home team in this game has been the winner, and the Sooners have won their last six home games against Tech.
  
  The Sooners were humiliated last week by a Texas A&M team that may well be better than expected, even a few weeks ago. This is their opportunity to prove they are as good as their preseason hype. And, no doubt, OU has come through on offense, boasting at #16 national ranking. But Tech has been decent on offense, too, ranking 21st in the nation.
  
  If there is little difference between the two on offense, then it may come down to which defense does the job, and it looks like OU has a decisive edge in that category. Neither team has been spectacular on defense, and OU seems particularly suspect. The Sooner defense outranks the Red Raider defense, 68 to 106, but I have to wonder about any defense that is only 68th in the nation after facing the relatively light schedule that OU has faced.
  
  Well, anyway, OU's two losses this season have come on the road, and they'll be playing their last two games at Baylor and at Oklahoma State. Both games will be challenging. This one, though, is being played in Norman.
  
  I expect Oklahoma to win.


• Kansas State at #20 Missouri, 11:30 a.m. on FSN: For 13 straight years, from 1993 to 2005, Kansas State dominated Missouri, winning every year.
  
  Most of those weren't very good years for the Missouri football program. There were few winning seasons during that time for the Tigers, while the Wildcats were usually ranked and sometimes played for the Big 12 championship.
  
  But the roles have been reversed in recent years. Today, it is Kansas State that is lucky to break even, and it has been Missouri that has been ranked. Missouri is currently riding a four–game winning streak against Kansas State, and the Tigers have won their last two at home against the Wildcats.
  
  What's more, Missouri has a clear advantage on both sides of the ball. I pick Missouri to extend its winning streak against K–State to five in a row.


• #21 Nevada at Fresno State: Nevada is 8–4 against Fresno State since the teams became members of the same conference.
  
  Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick is sixth in the nation in passing efficiency, and common sense would tell you he should enjoy some success in this game. It could be challenging, though. Fresno State's defense, overall, is 38th, but its pass defense is rated higher than its run defense.
  
  Fresno can't afford to focus all of its attention on defense on stopping Kaepernick, though. Vai Taua has been running for well over 100 yards a game for Nevada.
  
  I'll pick Nevada to win.


• #22 South Carolina at #24 Florida: South Carolina is aiming for its first SEC East title and a berth in the SEC championship game.
  
  The task it faces this week is formidable. Even though Tim Tebow is no longer on Florida's roster, the Gators have virtually owned the Gamecocks since South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992. In the 18 games they have played, Florida has won 17 — and the only exception came at South Carolina in 2005.
  
  Florida is 9–0 at home against South Carolina since they became conference rivals.
  
  Obviously, history is solidly against South Carolina.
  
  For that matter, so are the numbers from this season. Both teams seem to have the advantage over the other when they're on defense, but the Gators' defense is seventh in the nation. That should make things interesting when South Carolina has the ball.
  
  I know the Gamecocks are eager to win the East, and one of these days they will. But, this week, I expect Florida to win. It may be closer than it has tended to be in this series, but I still think this is the Gators' game to lose.


• #23 Texas A&M at Baylor, 6 p.m. on FSN: These schools were Southwest Conference rivals so their history goes back well before the current incarnation of the Big 12.
  
  Since 1980, the Aggies are 22–6–2 against the Bears, and they have only lost to Baylor twice since the two teams became part of the Big 12. But both of those losses have come in Waco.
  
  Both teams have Top 20 offenses so the outcome may depend on which team has the more effective defense. And, in that regard, Texas A&M clearly has the edge. The Aggie defense is 47th in the nation; the Bear defense is 96th.
  
  Baylor's had a good year, but I think the Bears will struggle to stop the Aggies. I'll take Texas A&M.


• Southern Mississippi at #25 UCF, 11 a.m. on CBSCSN: The two teams became conference rivals in 2005, and Southern Miss is 4–1 against UCF in that time.
  
  UCF's only win came on the road. UCF is still looking for its first win at home against Southern Miss.
  
  Southern Miss is 25th in the nation in both offense and defense. Based on the numbers, UCF, with its 18th–ranked defense, will have a slight edge when Southern Miss has the ball, but Southern Miss should have a considerable advantage over UCF's 57th–ranked offense.
  
  I'll take Southern Miss.

Last week: 12–6

Season: 162–34

Longest Field Goal Still on Record Books

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If you follow football, you know that field goals can be very important.

But, unless somebody kicks a game–winner in the last seconds, field goals don't get the same attention as touchdown runs and passes. That's understandable. They aren't worth as much — although there have been proposals that would add to the value for especially long field goals in recognition of their increased difficulty.

That's something I can support — kind of like the three–point shot in basketball. Reward kickers for doing something special. I guess I have a little recent personal motivation to say that. The kicker for my alma mater, the University of Arkansas, nailed a 51–yard field goal on Saturday.

That's the longest field goal that has been kicked at Arkansas in nearly 20 years. But it wasn't the game–winner. It came in the middle of a game that turned into something of a rout for the Razorbacks so it didn't get a lot of attention.

That, in turn, reminded me of when I worked on the sports desk at the Arkansas Gazette.

The Gazette is no longer in business, but, when I was there, we took a lot of high school football game accounts over the phone from stringers and such on Friday nights.

The newspaper served the whole state, and we didn't have enough reporters on the entire staff — let alone the sports side — to physically attend every high school game.

And we sure didn't have enough space for extensive articles on every game. Most of the time, we had to settle for a couple of paragraphs that mentioned the score, a couple of the outstanding players or the game–winning play and the teams' records.

That was about it.

I guess it goes without saying that the phone calls we took on those very busy Friday nights didn't last too long.

Anyway, one of the fellows on the staff used to love to come up with nicknames for players in game accounts he took over the phone — and sometimes he would try to sneak one into print. Typically, the nicknames he thought of were ones that were given, originally, to the gridiron legends of the 1940s and 1950s.

Those of us on the copy desk learned to be particularly alert for these nicknames, and we caught a lot of them. We didn't catch them all, but we tried. It helped if you were familiar with football history.

You know the kind of stuff I mean. If a kid kicked a game–winning field goal on the last play of the game, this guy wanted to nickname him "The Toe." If a guy ran for a lot of yards, he wanted to nickname him "Crazy Legs."

If I think about it, I can see him in my mind's eye, chuckling as he read the first paragraph in such a blurb he had written when he saw it on a page proof: "Joe (The Toe) Smith kicked a 31–yard field goal as time ran out to lift Little Rock Catholic to a victory over Little Rock Central ..."

The nickname was his inside joke. If it was a somewhat obscure nickname, he knew he had a good chance of getting away with it because the copy desk might not know that the nickname wasn't legitimate, that a coach or a teacher or whoever called in the score hadn't said it was the player's real nickname, that it was actually an homage.

Kim, you rascal.

He particularly loved that nickname "The Toe." I worked on the Gazette sports staff for four football seasons, and I think that is the nickname he mentioned more often than any other.

If you're a fan of football, you may know that the original "The Toe" was Lou Groza, an NFL kicker in the 1950s and 1960s who also played offensive tackle. He spent his whole professional career with the Cleveland Browns, and a writer for the Cleveland Press gave him that nickname.

Groza was a prolific kicker. He kicked game–winning field goals in pressure situations. He led the NFL in field goals five times. But today is the anniversary of something that even he, as successful as he was, never achieved.

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Forty years ago today, Tom Dempsey kicked a 63–yard field goal for the New Orleans Saints against the Detroit Lions, setting an NFL record that has not been exceeded, only matched.

There were a few things about this field goal that made it unique.

For one thing, the right–footed Dempsey was born without any toes on his right foot. He wore a special shoe that was believed by some to give him an unfair advantage.

(Some might argue that going through life with half the toes one is supposed to have qualifies as a disadvantage.)

The shoe Dempsey wore on that day, incidentally, can be seen at the New Orleans Sports Hall of Fame.

For another, the Saints and the Lions were nothing like their modern incarnations. The Saints of 1970 were a young, struggling expansion squad while the Lions were on their way to the playoffs as the NFC's first wild–card team.

It was to be — at least, when compared to the next four decades — a rare postseason appearance for Detroit. At the time, though, the Lions were considered a competitive franchise that was usually included in any conversation about Super Bowl contenders.

Nevertheless, Dempsey's kick handed the win to New Orleans.

Ironically, Dempsey's record–setting field goal came eight days before the first anniversary of another team field goal record he set. On Nov. 16, 1969, against the New York Giants, Dempsey kicked six field goals in a single game, more than any other kicker in New Orleans history, as the Saints won by a single point.

In these days of political correctness, some people seem to believe that the way to handle an unpleasant truth is to change the language used to describe that truth — or ignore it completely.

I won't dispute the importance of language, but I think what is really needed is more role models who have overcome the barriers they faced — physical disabilities, prejudices of any kind, etc. — and achieved great things.

We need more people who will inspire us with their accomplishments.

More Tom (The Toe) Dempseys.

Teams of Destiny?

Pete Fiutak of Fox Sports made an interesting observation this week.

Only two teams in the current Top 25 have a worse strength of schedule to date than Oregon, but Oregon, which has been atop the human polls for a few weeks now, leaped past Auburn, which was the most recent top–ranked team in the BCS rankings, and controls its destiny.

Actually, as Fiutak observes, Auburn, now ranked second in the BCS, also controls its destiny. But Auburn still must face defending national champion Alabama in the annual in–state battle at the end of this month.

Then, if successful, Auburn must win the SEC championship game — and, while the SEC East is clearly down this year, don't underestimate its winner's potential to pull off an upset. Remember, it was South Carolina that ended Alabama's winning streak earlier this season.

So Auburn's road to the national title game doesn't appear quite as smooth as Oregon's. As for the other currently undefeated teams in the Top 25, the task is not impossible, just made more unlikely with the passage of time.

If, as seems likely, the national championship games match Auburn and Oregon, it ought to be an entertaining game. As Dennis Dodd observes for CBS Sports, defenses appear to be optional at both schools.

Are they truly teams of destiny? We shall see.

Two teams are idle this week: #8 Ohio State and #21 Mississippi State. All times are Central.

Today

• Georgia Tech at #20 Virginia Tech, 6:30 p.m. on ESPN: Virginia Tech is 4–2 against Georgia Tech since joining the ACC, but one of those losses came last year.
  
  That, of course, occurred on Georgia Tech's field. For the Yellow Jackets to duplicate the accomplishment on the road, I think the ground game is the key — and that isn't entirely good news for Georgia Tech, which has the nation's most productive running attack. Virginia Tech's rushing game is 16th in the country, and its run defense is 45th while Georgia Tech didn't crack the Top 50 in that category.
  
  All of which suggests to me that Virginia Tech may be better equipped to stop the run — and it will have a supportive home crowd. The outcome may be much closer than the double–digit point spread, but I do think Virginia Tech will win.

Saturday

• Washington at #1 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN2: Oregon is 7–3 in the last 10 meetings and has won six in a row.
  
  Oregon has the top–ranked offense in the nation; Washington's defense is 100th. The Huskies' offense is nothing special, either, ranked 70th in the nation. Oregon's defense is adequate, at 35th.
  
  After watching the Ducks in action in the last few weeks, I don't see how Washington can keep up with them.
  
  I am confident that Oregon will win.


• Hawaii at #2 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. on ESPNU: You might not realize it, but this is a pretty big game in the Western Athletic Conference.
  
  Hawaii is 5–0 in conference play and could take a huge step toward winning the conference title (not to mention cracking the Top 25) by beating Boise State, currently 3–0 in WAC play.
  
  But a victory for Hawaii would be a real eye popper.
  
  Boise State is 8–1 vs. Hawaii since they became conference rivals in 2001.
  
  Both teams are explosive on offense — Boise State is ranked fifth, Hawaii is ranked seventh — so the key may well be with the defenses, even though neither has been terribly impressive. And, in that category, Boise State holds a significant edge, ranked third in the nation compared to Hawaii's 39th.
  
  I pick Boise State to win — and continue in its unlikely quest for a spot in the national championship game.


• Tennessee–Chattanooga at #3 Auburn, 1 p.m. on ESPN3.com: It's been 15 years since these two schools played each other. On that occasion — Sept. 9, 1995 — Auburn prevailed, 76–10.
  
  They met in 1986, too, and Auburn won that one, 42–14.
  
  The teams met more regularly in the 1970s — from 1971–1974 — and in the 1960s — from 1960–1967. They met a few times in the 1950s (1954, 1955, 1957, 1958).
  
  The point is that, historically, these schools aren't strangers. True, they haven't played in awhile, and they have never met anywhere except Auburn's home field.
  
  But I see no reason to expect the outcome to be any different. Auburn will win.


• #4 TCU at #6 Utah, 2:30 p.m. at CBSCSN: In seven meetings since 1996, Utah is 5–2, and the Utes are 3–0 at home against the Frogs.
  
  Will Utah improve to 4–0 at home?
  
  I say no.
  
  That might be a mild upset as far as many are concerned, but the numbers suggest that TCU has an edge. Admittedly, it's a small one.
  
  Both teams are in the Top 10 nationally in defense, but TCU is ranked #1 while Utah is #6. And both teams are in the Top 25 in offense — TCU's advantage is a little more pronounced; the Frogs are 11th while the Utes are 21st.
  
  I think it will be a close game. It might even go into overtime. But I'm going to predict that, because of its edge on offense, TCU will prevail.


• #5 Alabama at #12 LSU, 2:30 p.m. on CBS: Perhaps nothing so vividly illustrates Alabama's football resuscitation than its performances against LSU.
  
  As a comparison, the legendary Bear Bryant won 80% of his games against LSU. Since 2000, the Crimson Tide is 3–7 against the Tigers, but Alabama has won the last two meetings. LSU won the five games before that.
  
  Defense has long been one of the hallmarks of SEC football, and, in that category, LSU has the edge. But it's a narrow one. LSU is seventh in the nation in defense, Alabama is 11th.
  
  It seems to me, though, that the task facing Alabama's defense is easier than the one facing LSU's. Alabama's offense is 23rd in the nation; LSU's is a dismal 101st.
  
  I'll take Alabama.


• #7 Wisconsin at Purdue, 11 a.m. on Big Ten Network: When you look at the numbers, you have to conclude that Wisconsin will win this game with ease.
  
  The oddsmakers have established the Badgers as favorites by some 20 points.
  
  The Badgers have won seven of their last 10 meetings with the Boilermakers.
  
  On offense, Wisconsin is 13th in the nation in rushing yards (while Purdue is 47th against the run) and 18th in points per game. On defense, Wisconsin is #22 against the run and seems capable of handling Purdue's 39th–ranked ground game.
  
  The only thing working against the Badgers might be the absence of the home crowd. But that has seldom stopped them before. I pick Wisconsin.


• #9 Nebraska at Iowa State, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: In the last 32 years, Iowa State has meant a nearly automatic W for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are 28–4 against the Cyclones in that time.
  
  The bad news for Nebraska is that three of those Iowa State wins have come in ISU's stadium — and two of them have come within the last 10 years, in 2002 and 2004.
  
  But that was in that transitional period Nebraska went through several years back. They're on the upswing now.
  
  Of course, there is that matter of Iowa State beating Texas in Austin — not long after that same Texas team came to Lincoln and beat Nebraska.
  
  I just don't think a team like Iowa State can pull off more than one shocking win in a season — and the Cyclones used up their quota in their trip to Austin. I think Nebraska will win this one.


• #13 Arizona at #10 Stanford, 7 p.m. on ABC: This has been a pretty competitive series in the last three decades. Since 1983, Arizona holds a 12–10 advantage over Stanford. And Arizona won their encounter last year, 43–38.
  
  Seems likely the winner of this game will finish behind Oregon in the Pac–10 — and, because Oregon probably will be invited to the national championship game, will host the Rose Bowl.
  
  Offense is what Pac–10 football is all about, and (with the exceptions of Oregon and USC) these may be two of the conference's best. Stanford is 16th in the country, and Arizona is 19th.
  
  So the game may well be decided by which defense can perform its task better, and Arizona, ranked 10th in the nation in defense, may be better prepared than Stanford, which is ranked 30th.
  
  I'll pick Arizona.


• #11 Oklahoma at Texas A&M, 6 p.m. on FSN: OU has won 10 of its last 11 games against A&M — but that one exception was at College Station in 2002, the same place where this year's game will be played.
  
  The Aggies appear to have found their quarterback, and he picked apart Texas Tech's pass defense last week for more than 400 yards. Oklahoma's passing defense is suspect, with a national ranking of 83, but it is clearly better than Tech's, which is virtually the worst.
  
  And Oklahoma is pretty good at throwing the ball, too. The Sooners are ranked fifth in the nation (the Aggies are sixth).
  
  Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, OU has the edge against the pass. It isn't decisive, but it should be enough. I'll take Oklahoma.


• #14 Missouri at Texas Tech. 7 p.m. on ABC: These schools aren't in the same division so they don't meet every year, but Missouri has won five of six meetings since they became members of the same conference.
  
  Both teams are better on offense than they are on defense. And Tech's offense has performed better this season than Missouri's. But Tech has a miserable defense, and I think it will run into more problems than Missouri's,
  
  Bottom line: Missouri will win.


• #15 Iowa at Indiana, 11 a.m. on Big Ten Network: Iowa's athletic reputation is in football. Indiana's is in basketball.
  
  Consequently, when these schools meet on the football field, the inclination is to expect Iowa to dominate. But Iowa is only 10–7 against Indiana since 1991.
  
  Now, frankly, I expect 6–2 Iowa to defeat 2–6 Indiana. The teams are pretty close on offense, but Iowa has a sizable advantage on defense. And I think that, if Iowa can stop Indiana QB Ben Chappell, Iowa will win.
  
  I think Chappell will be stopped, and Iowa will win.


• Minnesota at #16 Michigan State, 11 a.m. on Big Ten Network: Minnesota has won all three meetings since 2005, but Michigan State is 9–6 since 1989.
  
  And, while the Gophers are 3–0 since 2005, it seems clear to me that streak will end on Saturday. The teams are moving in different directions — Michigan State is 8–1, Minnesota is 1–8. Michigan State holds considerable advantages on both offense and defense.
  
  I pick Michigan State.


• #17 Arkansas at #18 South Carolina, 6 p.m. on ESPN: Arkansas is 10–7 against South Carolina since joining the SEC, and the Razorbacks have won three of the last four.
  
  But Arkansas has had its troubles at South Carolina. The Razorbacks lost the last time they visited Columbia in 2008, and they only have a 3–5 record there since the two joined the SEC in 1992.
  
  This may be a game of dueling quarterback — Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, seventh in the nation in passing, and South Carolina's Stephen Garcia, fifth in the nation.
  
  But, even though the Gamecocks have the statistical edge at quarterback, the Razorbacks have a decided edge in total offense and total defense.
  
  It should be a great game, but I'll go with visiting Arkansas to win.


• #22 Baylor at #19 Oklahoma State, 11:30 a.m. on FSN: OSU has only lost once to Baylor in 14 meetings since the teams became members of the same conference in 1996.
  
  And the Cowboys have never lost at home to the Bears in that time.
  
  The numbers suggest this could be a pretty wild offensive game. Oklahoma State has the nation's second–ranked offense behind Kendall Hunter's running and Brandon Weeden's passing. But Baylor's offense is eighth in the land, and the Bears' quarterback, Robert Griffin III, has been outperforming Weeden.
  
  Neither defense seems prepared to stop a sustained aerial attack; of the two, Baylor ranks highest (at 87th in the nation).
  
  Is it asking too much of Baylor to record back–to–back landmark victories on the road? I'm inclined to say that it is.
  
  I expect Oklahoma State to win the game. But watch it anyway if it's available in your area. It oughta be a good one.


• #23 North Carolina State at Clemson, 11 a.m. on ESPN3.com: Clemson is 15–6 against N.C. State since 1989.
  
  But that's what happened in the past. What do the numbers tell us about 2010?
  
  Well, N.C. State has the better offense — by far. Clemson has the better defense, but only slightly.
  
  I think it might be a pretty good game, but I think, eventually, N.C. State will win.


• North Carolina at #24 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: Florida State is 13–1 against North Carolina since they have been conference rivals, and the Seminoles have won the last four.
  
  What's more, North Carolina has never won at Florida State. The Tar Heels did fight to a tie there, back in 1986, but that was it.
  
  So that might be working against UNC.
  
  Then again, it seems likely that the Seminoles' 37th–ranked defense will handle the Tar Heels' 64th–ranked offense. When Florida State has the ball, it will be a more balanced struggle.
  
  I think Florida State will win.


• #25 Nevada at Idaho, 5 p.m. on ESPN3.com: Nevada has won all five meetings since both teams have been members of the WAC. Before that, as members of the Big West Conference (when it still competed in football) for a few years, the series was more competitive.
  
  But that was then. This is now.
  
  This year, Nevada's offense is third in the nation. Idaho, it should be noted, isn't too bad (ranked 33rd). Neither defense seems up to the task — Nevada is 71st in the nation, Idaho is 76th.
  
  I don't think Idaho's defense can stop Nevada's offense. When Idaho has the ball, Nevada's defense should fare somewhat better.
  
  And I expect Nevada to improve its WAC record against Idaho to 6–0.

Last week: 16–2

Season: 150–28