My NFL Predictions

This afternoon, the temperature in Dallas is about 88° with a touch of a breeze. In some places, that probably seems pretty warm, but, in Dallas in August, it's like a breath of autumn. It's been the kind of day we normally don't see until late September or early October.

So I'm taking this opportunity to predict how things will turn out in the National Football League — even though the regular season doesn't start until the Titans play the Steelers on Thursday, Sept. 10.

Let's start with the NFC:

• The East is of most interest to football fans around here, since that is the division in which the Cowboys compete. Dallas really blew it at the end of the last regular season and didn't even make the playoffs after being many fans' preseason pick to play in the Super Bowl.
  
  I'm not a Cowboys fan, but I have to pick someone to win the East so I'll pick last year's division winner, the New York Giants. Even so, I wouldn't be surprised to see Philadelphia come on strong. The Eagles, who clinched a wild–card spot with their season–ending rout of the Cowboys, could be deeper at the quarterback position, with Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, than any other team in the division, but Vick still has a few things to prove after a two–year layoff.


• In the North, Minnesota fans think the acquisition of Brett Favre is the missing piece in their playoff puzzle. I'm not so sure about that — Favre will turn 40 in October — but I'm going to pick the Vikings to repeat as division champs — mainly from lack of apparent competition. Still, it's going to be interesting to see what happens when they play Green Bay.
  
  Yes, I know that great things are expected from Jay Cutler in Chicago and rookie Matt Stafford in Detroit, but I'm not convinced that either one will be ready to emerge as the NFL's next great quarterback this season. Cutler has some talent around him in Chicago, but he needs to make the adjustment to his new team and its system first.
  
  And Stafford will take the helm of the NFL's first–ever 0–16 team — a daunting assignment. Eventually, he may lead the Lions back to the playoffs — but it won't be in 2009.


• In the South, Carolina won the division last year, but Atlanta was competitive enough to win a wild–card berth and Tampa Bay might well have won the division if not for a season–ending four–game losing streak.
  
  Clearly, the South was wide open last year. Will it be that competitive this year? It might be. It seems to me there are a lot of intangibles in the NFC South this year. Carolina probably has the most solid coach in John Fox. Atlanta may have the most promising young quarterback in Matt Ryan. Tampa Bay has an unproven coach and a quarterback (Byron Leftwich) who would probably like to make folks forget about his years in Jacksonville. New Orleans scored more points than any team in the division last year but brought up the rear in the standings, finishing 8–8 after giving up more points than anyone else in the division.
  
  I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Atlanta.


• In the West, many people may be picking the Arizona Cardinals to repeat last year's astonishing Super Bowl run.
  
  But lots of folks tend to forget that Arizona was only 9–7 in the regular season last year — worst record of the four division champs.
  
  And most of the Cardinals are not accustomed to the spotlight that shines on Super Bowl teams. They're going to be under a lot of pressure, and I'm not sure they will be able to live up to it.
  
  I might have been inclined to pick Seattle, but the Seahawks are in a bit of a transition. The 10–year Mike Holmgren era ended last season, and I think it is going to take awhile for Seattle to be competitive again.
  
  So I'm going to pick the team that finished second in the West last year, the San Francisco 49ers. I know, it's been awhile since the 49ers were genuine contenders, but I think they might be positioned pretty well this season. Anyway, we might get a good idea if San Francisco is going to be ready for prime time pretty early. The 49ers play the Cardinals on Opening Day.
  
  The two teams opened the season against each other last year, too, and the Cardinals won by 10. If the 49ers had won that game, they would have tied Arizona for the division title. If they had won that game and the rematch on Nov. 10, they would have won the division outright.

As for the wild–card teams, I'll pick Green Bay (as long as the defense is improved) and Dallas.

And now, let's look at the AFC:

• In the East, I think most people consider it New England Patriots territory, even though the Patriots didn't make the playoffs last year. And I'm inclined to agree — as long as quarterback Tom Brady is able to play.
  
  Even without Brady last season, the Pats shared the division title with Miami and lost a wild–card spot on a tiebreaker. This year, I think they will win the division and return to the playoffs.


• In the North, I think Pittsburgh will repeat as division champs, but I think they will have a tough fight with Baltimore. The outcome is likely to be the same — Steelers win the division, Ravens take a wild–card slot.
  
  Neither Cincinnati nor Cleveland look ready to compete. That frees Cleveland to start focusing its attention on the Cavaliers. I don't know what Cincinnati is going to do.


• In the South, I'm going to pick Peyton Manning and the Colts. Tennessee might give them a run for awhile, but I don't think the Titans will repeat as division champs.
  
  Last October, Tennessee beat Indianapolis, 31–21. The Colts won the rematch in late December, 23–0. If the Colts had swept the series, they would have won the division. As it was, the Colts grabbed a wild–card berth.
  
  Tennessee might grab the other wild–card slot. I'll get to that in a minute.


• In the West, I'm going to pick the San Diego Chargers. I know they had a miserable regular season last year (8–8) and barely got into the playoffs. But that is a sign of just how weak the West is.
  
  Denver shared the division, but, I think, the Broncos will be weaker, with a new coach and a new quarterback. I think 2009 will be a learning experience for them.
  
  Oakland and Kansas City have their moments, but neither of them are ready to compete. So, by default, I'm picking the Chargers.

Now, that leaves me with the other wild–card berth in the AFC. I think it could come down to Tennessee and Miami. As it turns out, the two teams will face each other in the 15th week. They will play on the Sunday before Christmas at Nashville's LP Field.

I'm going to pick the Dolphins to win in what will probably be an upset. Then, when the regular season is over, Miami will have the tiebreaker if needed. One way or the other, I think that game on Dec. 20 will be significant.

How about the playoffs? Well, in the NFC, I'm going to say that Green Bay will play at San Francisco and Dallas will play at Atlanta in the wild–card round. I pick the Packers over the 49ers and the Falcons over the Cowboys. The next week, Green Bay travels to Minnesota and Atlanta travels to New York. I'll take the Giants and the Vikings. Then, in the title game, the Giants defeat the Vikings.

In the AFC, I predict that Miami will play at Pittsburgh and Baltimore will play at San Diego in the first round. I predict the Steelers and Ravens will win. In the next round, Baltimore travels to New England and Pittsburgh travels to Indianapolis. I'll pick both home teams to prevail, with the Colts defeating the Patriots in the title game.

That sets up the long–awaited All–Manning Super Bowl — Eli with the Giants, Peyton with the Colts. I'll pick older brother Peyton to win his second Super Bowl ring.

Do you suppose Daddy Archie will come to the game wearing a baseball cap that has Giants on one side and Colts on the other?

Baseball's Home Stretch

We are a week away from Labor Day. The major league baseball season runs through the first weekend in October, which means that a little more than a month is left.

I made my predictions back in late March, and, periodically, I've been checking to see how they were holding up. Well, this will be my last check before the playoffs begin in October.

Let's look at the National League first:

• In the East, I picked the defending world champion Philadelphia Phillies to repeat as division champs, and I predicted they would have a record of 90–72. Today, the Phillies lead their division by seven games. To match the record I predicted, they wouldn't even need to win half of their remaining games. A 16–19 record would do it.


• In the Central, I picked St. Louis to win the division with a record of 95–67. The Cardinals have surged to a 10–game lead, after trailing through much of the first half of the season, but they will need an 18–12 record the rest of the way to meet my prediction.


• In the West, I predicted the Los Angeles Dodgers would prevail. They shot out to a big lead early in the season, and they have remained in control of their division, but they've lost a little ground since the All–Star break. Even so, they have a 5½–game lead.
  
  I predicted the Dodgers would finish the regular season with a record of 87–75, and, unless they experience a total meltdown in September, they should be able to meet that, if not exceed it. They've got the best record in the National League, and they only need to go 9–22 to match the record I forecast.

So my picks to win the division titles appear to be holding up, but my wild–card pick, the New York Mets, seems to be in trouble. The Mets are 13 games under .500.

Actually, the two top contenders for the NL wild card spot, Colorado and San Francisco, are playing each other today. As I write this, the Rockies have a 4–1 lead over the Giants in the sixth inning. With a month left in the season, that doesn't really mean much — except from the standpoint of momentum.

Now, let's take a look at the American League:

• In the East, I predicted Boston would win the division with a record of 96–66. The Red Sox led their division early in the season, but they've been slumping this summer and the rival New York Yankees have taken a six–game lead. Boston would need a 20–12 record the rest of the way to match my prediction. Along the way, they would need the Yankees to do no better than go 13–19.
  
  It looks like the Sox will need some help from other teams if they're going to catch the Yanks. The two teams meet only three more times (in New York) the last weekend of September.


• In the Central, I predicted that Minnesota would win the division with a record of 87–75. Currently, the Twins are second in their division, 4½ games behind Detroit.
  
  I predicted the Twins would go 87–75, but that's going to be a tall order. Minnesota would have to go 22–10 the rest of the way to accomplish that. It sounds like a longshot, but they've got six games left with the Tigers in September so winning the division still is possible.


• In the West, I picked the Los Angeles Angels to win their division with a 98–64 record. The Angels stumbled early in the season, but they've seized control of the division in the last couple of months. Even so, they would need to go 21–12 to match my prediction. But they have a five–game lead. The West doesn't appear to be a lock for the Angels — not yet — but I like their chances.

The top two contenders for the wild card in the American League are Boston and Texas. They aren't scheduled to face each other again during the regular season so the Red Sox need to make their current 3½–game advantage over the Rangers hold up.

I picked the Yankees to win the wild card so if Boston takes it instead and the Yankees win the division, that's a reversal of my prediction but both teams will still qualify for the playoffs. If everything else remains the way it is right now, that would mean that six of the eight teams I predicted would be in the playoffs actually will be there.

I Still Support the Ban on Charlie Hustle

It was 20 years ago today that Major League Baseball Commissioner Bart Giamatti banned Pete Rose from baseball for gambling.

There were many great baseball players when I was growing up. I've heard some people argue that Rose was the best of that era, but that's a tough case to make.

Even so, he was a great player. And I assumed, as did many other people, that he eventually would claim his spot in baseball's Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y.

Rose initially denied betting on the Cincinnati Reds, the team for which he played for many seasons and later served as manager. But he finally admitted publicly, in his 2004 autobiography, that he gambled on the Reds but never gambled against the team.

That is a distinction that Rose's supporters have latched on as justification for lifting the lifetime ban on Rose and permitting him to be eligible for the Hall of Fame.

I believe it is exactly the opposite.

As manager of the Reds, Rose was in a position to make decisions that could jeopardize the integrity of the game. But, even when he finally admitted gambling on his own team, he did so in a book. He never stood up and spoke the words, never answered questions truthfully in public. He remained defiant, even when admitting his own wrongdoing.

I believe the evidence against Rose — including his own, albeit long delayed, confession — is considerably stronger than the evidence against "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, who was banned from baseball along with his teammates on the 1919 Chicago "Black Sox" for throwing the World Series.

When Giamatti banned Rose, I said I would favor lifting the ban only when Jackson's ban was lifted. In the 1919 World Series, Jackson set a record for hits in a World Series (12) and hit .375. He committed no errors in the field. He did acknowledge receiving $5,000 of a promised $20,000 bribe, but there is no evidence that he ever did anything in a game to help his team lose.

The case against Jackson is not clear cut. The case against Rose is.

Jayson Stark writes, for ESPN.com, that Rose made his reinstatement impossible because he "could never bring himself to do what seemed so obvious."

I agree that it is a sad story. Rose, now 68, "has lived two decades in purgatory," writes Stark. But he brought it on himself.

Predicting the SEC

In most respects, I guess my prediction for the Southeastern Conference is not too surprising.

I'm picking Florida to win the SEC and play for a second consecutive national championship. With 18 starters returning, including a former Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, I don't see how anyone can pick against the Gators in the SEC. But I'm not convinced that they will win a second straight national championship. It's awful tough to repeat.

Likewise, it seems to me to be a no–brainer to pick Georgia to finish second in the SEC East. The Bulldogs went 10–3 last year and finished ranked 13th in the AP and Coaches' polls. And, in the history of Georgia football, only one other coach has a better winning percentage than Mark Richt — and he coached one season in the 19th century.

The rest of the SEC East looks pretty dismal to me. Normally, I would expect Tennessee to be competitive. But the Volunteers went 5–7 last season and they have a new coach (Lane Kiffin). The Vols have a winning tradition — second among SEC schools, ninth nationally — and an enviable bowl record — tied for third in bowl appearances, fourth in bowl victories — so I expect Tennessee to resume its winning ways in the near future. But not this year.

The SEC West gives me a challenge — and not just because I am a graduate of the University of Arkansas.

Most people seem to pick Ole Miss and Alabama to battle it out, even though LSU is the team that has enjoyed the most success in recent years.

Predictions I've seen forecast Ole Miss to be Florida's foe for the SEC title, but I'm going to pick Alabama to win the West. And I pick LSU to finish second. Ole Miss will be good, and as a Razorback fan, I know how good Houston Nutt is as coach. He was at Arkansas for 10 years before moving on to Ole Miss. But I'm expecting Ole Miss to drop off a little from its 9–4 finish last season.

Anyway, here is my prediction in the SEC:

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East

1. Florida


2. Georgia


3. Tennessee


4. South Carolina


5. Kentucky


6. Vanderbilt

West

1. Alabama


2. LSU


3. Ole Miss


4. Arkansas


5. Auburn


6. Mississippi State

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Sure Enough ...

No sooner had I written about the possibility of Brett Favre signing with Minnesota ...

Well, he did it. Today. I'm sure the TV crews will be on hand for his return to Green Bay with the Vikings.

Of course, this is nothing new. He's done this before.

Judd Zulgad reports, in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, that it was "now or never." I'm not sure "never" is in Favre's vocabulary.

But it might be after he faces some of the defensive players in the NFC North this fall. Especially the ones in Green Bay.

Well, I don't wish anything bad for Favre. I've been a Packer fan most of my life, and I will always appreciate what Favre did for my team. When the Packers play the Vikings, I will pull for the Packers, as always. But I will enjoy watching Favre do what he does on a football field. I can't deny that. I have enjoyed watching him play football for a long time now.

It's hard not to enjoy watching him play. And it's hard not to be thankful that he will be playing for one more season.

But I agree with one of my favorite sportswriters, Peter King of Sports Illustrated, who says it is a mistake.

And even if you are a diehard Brett Favre fan who only cares about seeing him play and doesn't particularly care which team he plays for, you have to agree that there is some sense behind King's words: "I'd have waited until [quarterback] Sage Rosenfels struggled — if he struggled — and then made the call to Favre. By doing it now, [head coach Brad] Childress loses Rosenfels and [quarterback] Tarvaris Jackson; how can they ever trust anything he says now?"

I'm with him on that one. I think Childress has sown the seeds of dissension — and, at the age of 40, it is far from certain that Favre can hold up for the entire season. That "could come back to haunt him if Favre's body breaks down," King writes.

I'm with King all the way. As I say, I don't wish for anything bad to happen to Favre, but I was 40 once and I know my body couldn't do the things it could do when I was 25. And I am certainly not an athlete. It's bound to be more pronounced with them.

And we all saw Favre's December collapse last year. If that happens again, how much confidence will the other QBs on the Minnesota roster have when they're called upon to take over for the team's alleged savior?

I think Minnesota sold its soul for a chance to win a Super Bowl with a 40–year–old quarterback calling the signals. Maybe it will work out. But my hunch is that it won't.

I agree with Peter King. I think it is a mistake.

Please, Not Again ...

Jay Glazer reports, at FOXSports.com, that Brett Favre's decision to stay retired is not a done deal.

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"After visiting the Vikings for two days, I am convinced — positively convinced — that Brett Favre will soon have talks with the Vikings to return to the team and could be joining them for this season after all. If my instincts are correct, all those purple Favre jerseys will have a home on Minnesota store shelves."

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He admits that his visit to the Vikings' camp occurred "before Sage Rosenfels lit up the Colts in the preseason opener to the tune of 10–of–13 passing for 91 yards. And if Rosenfels can continue like this, he could squash this prediction as the preseason continues."

But he expresses — with a certain amount of confidence — his belief that Favre soon will be a Viking. And he offers a compelling case:

• Exhibit A) Acceptance within the team that it's pretty much already done.


• Exhibit B) Favre has not closed the door on his decision.


• Exhibit C) Best available option.


• Exhibit D) Favre hates camp.

As I say, Glazer acknowledges that a continued strong performance by Sage Rosenfels could put the kibosh on this idea.

And the flip side, for me, is that I've seen this movie before. I have rarely seen a professional athlete who was as reluctant to accept the end of his career as Favre has been, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him change his mind again before the season starts.

I do believe some of the things I have read about Favre — in particular, that he wants to go out with a Super Bowl appearance and that he felt robbed of that when the Packers lost the 2007 NFC title game to the Giants. I'm not sure if I agree with some of the rhetoric I have heard and read from Minnesota partisans that Favre is the "missing piece" for the Vikings' Super Bowl hopes — perhaps, if we were talking about the 30–year–old version of Favre, that would be true, but the 40–year–old version?

I'll wait and see what happens with Favre. If he is as smart as I think he is, he will stay retired and mostly injury–free.

But, in the last couple of years, Favre has reminded me more and more of something Bill Cosby said on a record I used to listen to when I was a kid. "Never say that things can't get any worse," Cosby cautioned his listeners, "because that is when the gremlins say, 'Worse!' "

If there is one thing I have learned about Brett Favre, it is to never say "never."

Vick's 'Second Chance'

Quarterback Michael Vick speaks of how "everybody deserves a second chance." And the Philadelphia Eagles have given him one.

You might say the Eagles have been down this road before. After he discredited himself in San Francisco, Terrell Owens was given a second chance by the Eagles. He helped Philadelphia finally get to a Super Bowl, but he turned out to be the same clubhouse poison he had been with the 49ers and he moved on to Dallas, where the pattern was repeated and he now finds himself playing for the Buffalo Bills.

Vick, who spent nearly two years in prison after his conviction on felony dogfighting charges, doesn't seem to be the same sort of person that Owens was. He doesn't strike me as a cancerous influence on the team, but it remains to be seen if two years away from the game have robbed him of the talents that impressed pro football fans.

Like Owens, Vick was the beneficiary of the generosity of quarterback Donovan McNabb. And, in many ways, it seems to me McNabb is being even more generous this time. Owens stabbed him in the back when he left the Eagles as his "thank you" — a pattern he repeated when he left Dallas.

McNabb could hardly be blamed for being hesitant to go out on another limb, but he isn't that sort of guy.

For that matter, Vick isn't the same kind of guy as Owens.

Vick seems more humble and, even though he plays the same position as McNabb, he says that "I fully understand that playing football in the NFL is a privilege, not a right, and I am truly thankful for [the] opportunity I have been given."

He won't be allowed to play in regular season games until October. but he says he isn't concerned about playing time right now. And that is probably just fine with McNabb, who, at 32, presumably realizes that age and recent injuries are catching up to him and his career in pro football is finite. Vick, 29, is not that much younger than McNabb, but if his skills are not diminished and he demonstrates that he truly wants to make the most of his second chance, he will be positioned to take over when McNabb's days with the Eagles are finished.

Ross Tucker worries that a quarterback controversy will be brewing in Philadelphia. And it is hard to argue with his logic. He says signing Vick was a mistake.

But Tucker's colleague, SI's Peter King, feels Vick and the Eagles are a near–perfect match, but not everyone in Philadelphia is sold.

"Philadelphia is a city of dog lovers and, most particularly, pit bull lovers," Susan Cosby, the Pennsylvania Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals' chief executive officer, said. "To root for someone who participated in the hanging, drowning, electrocution and shooting of dogs will be impossible for many, no matter how much we would all like to see the Eagles go all the way."

If Vick is wise, he will use the first month of the regular season to work to win over those who see him not as a talented football player but as an animal abuser.

Well, persuading the doubters always was going to be a significant part of his rehabilitation no matter where he went.

College Football Preseason Rankings

SI.com has posted its college football preseason Top 20, along with its rankings of the the rest of Division 1.

And the results are somewhat predictable.

Before I go any farther, here is the Top 20:

1. Florida


2. Texas


3. Oklahoma


4. USC


5. Virginia Tech


6. Ole Miss


7. Oklahoma State


8. Alabama


9. Boise State


10. Ohio State


11. Oregon


12. Georgia Tech


13. LSU


14. Penn State


15. Georgia


16. Florida State


17. TCU


18. Oregon State


19. Utah


20. North Carolina

Now, these rankings aren't entirely predictable. Just certain parts.

And when I say they are predictable, I mean in a hindsight sort of way. Florida, for example, won the national championship last year. And 15 of the other teams in SI.com's Top 20 finished in the Top 20 of last year's final AP Poll. For that matter, the same 16 teams finished in the Top 20 of the USA Today Coaches' Poll. And 14 of these teams were in the Top 20 of the Harris Interactive Poll.

But back to Florida. The Gators also won the national title in 2006. And their quarterback, Tim Tebow, is back for his senior season.

Picking Florida to finish first is not exactly going out on a limb.

Actually, it isn't much of a gamble to pick Texas and Oklahoma for the second and third spots, either. Both programs struggled in the 1990s, but they seem to be back on track. OU won the national title in 2000, Texas won the national title in 2005. And both have been contenders throughout the decade.

Based on the rankings — and SI.com's bowl projections — Texas is the favorite this year.

In fact, the winner of their annual showdown in October is likely to be the odds–on favorite to play for another national title in January. And that is what SI.com is projecting — that Texas will play Florida for the national crown.

Which teams are in SI.com's Top 20 but were not in the Top 20 of those polls at the end of last season? Well, Florida State, Georgia Tech, LSU and North Carolina were not in the AP poll or the USA Today Coaches' poll. Georgia Tech was in the Harris Interactive Top 20, but Ole Miss, Virginia Tech and Oregon State were not.

It's worth noting, though, that the Harris poll's final rankings came out in early December so the poll didn't take into consideration the facts that Ole Miss, Virginia Tech and Oregon State all won their bowl games.

It is also worth noting that LSU and North Carolina are the only teams in SI.com's Preseason Top 20 that did not appear in the final installations of at least one of those three polls.

But LSU is a pretty easy one to include. The Tigers, after all, won national titles in 2007 and 2003. They're coming off an 8–5 season that included a bowl victory so it isn't much of a longshot to pick LSU to be successful this year. In fact, the only other time this decade in which LSU wasn't ranked at season's end preceded the first of their two national titles in the 21st century.

Now, what about North Carolina? The Tar Heels have more of a reputation as a basketball program than a football program — and they play in a conference that is known more for basketball than football. Well, the Tar Heels have enjoyed some success over the years. They haven't won their conference since 1980, and they've never won a national title. But they also went 8–5 last season. It was the Tar Heels' first winning season since 2001.

So do they deserve to be Number 20 in SI.com's rankings? Apparently so. Armed with "hyperquick" linebackers anchoring a defense that returns nine starters, SI.com says, "It's time to turn the close losses into big wins and step onto the national stage."

We'll see. Boston College and Virginia Tech played for the ACC title last year, with Tech winning. Boston College doesn't have much of a reputation in football, either, but the Eagles have been to bowl games every year since 1999. SI.com ranks Boston College Number 71 heading into the season. Draw from that what you will.

One thing I'm wondering about is how SI.com feels about my alma mater — the University of Arkansas. The Razorbacks have struggled in recent years, and, based on the preseason rankings, they will have their work cut out for them when they play Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU, but SI.com ranks them 37th in the nation and predicts Arkansas will play Clemson in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 27.

That's all the information I've got on the Razorbacks right now. I suppose SI.com will post the Arkansas scouting report later this month — presumably after it appears in print in SI's Aug. 17 issue.

But if the Hogs go back to a bowl game this year, I will be happy. Woo pig sooie!

My Fantasy Football Team

Over the years, fantasy football has grown into a national obsession.

I haven't been immune. In fact, in recent years, I have been signing up for online leagues which will assign you to a league and usually conduct their drafts automatically. You don't have to be online for the draft. All you have to do is list players in your order of preference.

Sometimes you get the players you want. Sometimes you don't.

The other day, I finished my preference list and indicated that I was ready to proceed. The next day, I received an e–mail telling me the draft was complete.

I eagerly looked to see who was on my team (I have named my team the "Pigskins," by the way) — and I must say I'm pretty happy with the squad I got:

• At quarterback, I have Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Cincinnati's Carson Palmer. I've been a Packer fan since I was a child and, despite my initial misgivings, I was rather pleased with Rodgers' performance last year as he took over following the departure of Brett Favre. He'll be my starter at the beginning of the season. If Palmer, who was injured through most of last season, turns out to be a better choice, I will elevate him to starter.


• At wide receiver, I have Carolina's Steve Smith, New England's Wes Welker, St. Louis' Donnie Avery, San Diego's Chris Chambers and Miami's Ted Ginn Jr.
  
  Smith might miss most of the preseason because of a strained shoulder, but he seems likely to be able to play in the regular season opener. He is ranked among the top 25 players in the NFL so I expect to play him a lot. Avery is also dealing with an injury, a stress fracture in his left foot. The expectation is that he will be ready to play when the season begins, but I will need to keep an eye on him. It hasn't been unusual for such an injury to take longer to heal than expected.


• At running back, I have Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, who is widely regarded as the top player in the NFL going into the 2009 season; Green Bay's Ryan Grant, and Arizona's Chris Wells. Grant is 18th among the running backs, according to NFL.com, and Wells is ranked 29th.


• At tight end, I got Houston's Owen Daniels (NFL.com ranks him eighth at that position) and Green Bay's Donald Lee (24th). In my experience, tight ends don't generate that many fantasy points so I feel pretty good about the ones I have.


• My placekicker is New England's Stephen Gostkowski. NFL.com rates him second only to Tennessee's Rob Bironas. Kickers seldom produce a lot of points in fantasy leagues, and NFL.com has no kickers in its Top 100. Kickers tend to produce more points if they kick a lot of field goals, and Gostkowski averaged more than two field goals per game last year.


• At defense, I have the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers. NFL.com ranks the Jets fifth among the league's defenses and Green Bay is 13th. But the Packers made moves in the offseason to improve the defense, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers crack the Top 10 before the season is over. Heading into the season, though, both of my defenses are in the top half of the NFL.

Bottom line is that I only have one player in NFL.com's Top 20 (Peterson), but he ranks Number 1 on the list. Smith is 22nd overall. Welker is 32nd, Rodgers is 34th and Grant is 35th, so I have five players in the top 50.

Wells is ranked 55th, Palmer is 70th and Avery is 100th.

So, out of 13 individual players, more than half are ranked in NFL.com's Top 100.

Anyway, I think I'm set now. Let the games begin.

The Wages of Fame

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CNN contributor Bob Greene had an interesting commentary today at CNN.com.

It apparently was inspired by sighting boxing legend Muhammad Ali at a Chicago restaurant.

When this happened isn't mentioned, only that Ali was one of a party of 10 celebrating the birthday of someone named "Marilyn." But it probably doesn't matter.

Ali was the person who drew everyone's attention. As always.

"He may be the only one who remembers his life when it was any other way," Greene wrote in his conclusion.

That is probably so. As hard as it is for me to believe, Ali is 67 years old. And, for most of those years, Ali has been in the public eye — winning the gold medal as an Olympic boxer when he was a teenager, beating aging boxing legend Archie Moore and then winning the heavyweight title from Sonny Liston in his early 20s, coming back from being stripped of his title for refusing to fight in Vietnam and recapturing the title at the age of 32 against the heavily favored George Foreman, losing the title at the age of 36 to 25–year–old Leon Spinks and then recapturing it from Spinks later that year. Especially memorable were his three epic fights with Joe Frazier.

Frazier handed Ali the first of only five defeats in his career, and he lost the last two fights of his career, when he was only a shell of his former self.

He may well possess, as one of the patrons in the restaurant told his children, "the most famous face in the world." When I was a child and Ali was beginning his professional career, such a designation was reserved for presidents and popes, occasionally entertainers like Elvis Presley or Marilyn Monroe.

It's been many years since Ali was the heavyweight champion of the world. He isn't seen on TV nearly as often as he once was.

But, for many, I'm sure he still has "the most famous face in the world."

I'm equally sure that there are times when he wishes he wasn't as recognizable. But, to hear Greene tell it, he still gives his time to those who approach him.

It is the price he pays for his fame. I guess it is the price he will continue to pay until the day he dies.

Football is Back

Tomorrow night's preseason game between the Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans is nothing special — other than the fact that it is the game that is being played for the NFL Hall of Fame's induction weekend and it is a homecoming, of sorts, for Buffalo's Dustin Fox.

But, other than that, it doesn't mean anything. Unless something unexpected happens, it would be surprising if very many people remember much about Hall of Fame weekend by the time the regular season begins.

I expect they will remember it in Buffalo, though. Two of today's six inductees, defensive lineman Bruce Smith and the team's 90–year–old owner Ralph Wilson, played prominent roles in the Bills' glory days.

The other four inductees are Bob Hayes, Randall McDaniel, Derrick Thomas and Rod Woodson.

Obviously, the game won't count in the standings. The players have only been working out as a group for about a week. And what is probably the most intriguing storyline — Terrell Owens and his adjustment to upstate New York — is unlikely to have any additional chapters written tomorrow night. If you see T.O. at all tomorrow night, my guess is he will be on the bench, available only if absolutely necessary.

It will be nothing more than a scrimmage between the backups for two teams. And it may be a bit uncomfortable. Tomorrow's forecast calls for a high of about 90° in Canton, Ohio. With an 8 p.m. (EST) kickoff, much of the first half is likely to be played in daylight and it may be awhile before it really cools off, even after the sun goes down. The forecast low for tomorrow night is 70°, which sounds pretty good here in Dallas but I would expect that the game will be long over by the time the mercury falls to that figure.

The weather isn't as cool as most football fans probably want it to be. And the recognizable players won't be playing.

But it is still football.

I'm more of a college football fan myself. But it is football, and I'm ready to watch some football.

So tee it up and let's go.