Winners and Losers in the First Round

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I don't think it was much of a surprise to anyone when the Detroit Lions picked Georgia QB Matthew Stafford with the No. 1 selection in the NFL draft.

But there were some surprises in the first round, not the least of which was the fact that Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree was still available when the San Francisco 49ers made the 10th selection.

Draft picks are always gambles. You never know if a player who performed well on the college level is going to make that jump to the next level, but Crabtree seems to have all the tools to be the best receiver the 49ers have had since Jerry Rice was on the roster.

Unfortunately, he doesn't have someone as good as Joe Montana calling the signals — at least, not yet.

Crabtree was still available because Oakland chose Maryland wide receiver Darrius Heyward–Bey at No. 7. I was a little surprised that the Raiders took him instead of Crabtree, but, frankly, I was pretty surprised that Seattle didn't snap up Crabtree with the No. 4 pick.

The Seahawks went for defense, taking Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry. Curry complements a youthful linebacking corps that gives Seattle a great deal of flexibility for years to come. But Crabtree is a great talent at wide receiver. He has a good work ethic, and he's ready to be a playmaker in the NFL.

Baylor isn't known for producing NFL Hall of Famers, but I sort of think offensive tackle Jason Smith has a chance to finish his career with a bust in Canton, Ohio. So I wasn't surprised to see the Rams take him with the No. 2 pick. They had a big hole to fill following the departure of Orlando Pace, and Smith can fill that hole for the next 10 years at least — provided he doesn't suffer a severe injury.

I was a bit surprised that Texas' Brian Orakpo was still on the board when the Redskins made the 13th pick, but I think he'll fit in with their defense very nicely.

I'm not sure there were any surprising first–round picks — at least, as far as I am concerned. I think all the guys who wound up being first–rounders were expected to be taken in the first round, but where some of them wound up did come as a bit of a surprise.

Now we have to wait a few more months to see who pays off — and who doesn't.

Who Will Be the No. 1 Pick?

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The NFL holds its annual draft this weekend, and observers have been speculating for weeks about who will be the No. 1 pick by the Detroit Lions.

The Lions, as you may recall, failed to win a single game last season. In fact, since the Lions lost their last regular–season game in 2007, they have now lost 17 consecutive games.

And it's even worse than that. The Lions' 7–9 record in 2007 was Detroit's best season since 2000 — when the Lions finished with a 9–7 record. They haven't been in the playoffs since 1999, and they haven't won a playoff game since 1991 (and that, incidentally, was Detroit's only playoff victory since winning the 1957 NFL championship).

Since 2000, Detroit has compiled a record of 40–104–0.

The consensus appears to be that Detroit has been negotiating with University of Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford. He's got a good arm, but Detroit has no line to speak of, which means Stafford (or whoever is calling the signals for the Lions next season) will have to throw on the run ... A LOT.

Stafford should be used to that, though. Georgia had little on the offensive line during Stafford's tenure there.

The best available offensive lineman appears to be Baylor's Jason Smith, and Sports Illustrated's Peter King thinks he will go second, when the St. Louis Rams make their pick. Smith seems like a good fit for the Rams, who cut the aging Orlando Pace last month.

But the team that could really use Smith is Detroit. Until the Lions get some big, strong linemen to provide protection for both the running and passing games, it won't matter how many marquee names the Lions put on their roster. The quarterback won't have time to look for the open receivers, and in the 10 years since Barry Sanders retired, Detroit hasn't found any running backs who can make things happen in spite of any weaknesses on the line the way he could.

Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free–Press says Stafford is going to be a Lion, like it or not — even though, I believe, Detroit already has four quarterbacks signed to contracts.

"The Lions apparently believe Stafford will be a franchise quarterback," Rosenberg writes, "and when you are that deeply in love, you don't worry about the price of roses."

Still, a lot of unforeseen things can happen in the NFL draft. Mike Florio of The Sporting News provides a rundown on the top storylines heading into the draft, and he points out that trades, drama and risk are key factors.

But that's true every year.

John Madden Retires

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It was inevitable that this day would come, but it is nevertheless one that I never wanted to see.

John Madden has retired from broadcasting.

He just made the announcement yesterday, and the tributes have been pouring in.

Art Spander writes that Madden was a great announcer and an even better man. "We'll miss you, John," he concludes.

Peter King, one of the foremost authorities on professional football, writes for Sports Illustrated that Madden's influence on football is unequaled.

And he agrees with Spander, but he elaborates. "Madden will be missed, but we've seen too many people who die too young, who likely would have wanted a few years to do what they wanted, when they wanted. Good for Madden. Bad for us."

Indeed.

Thankfully, Madden still lives. Perhaps he will make occasional guest appearances at important football games in the future. Maybe he will come back for a Super Bowl or two, maybe a Thanksgiving game.

Hope springs eternal, I guess, that this is not the absolute end — although he did walk away from coaching in his 40s, never to return. He can still spend time with his family, yet give football fans occasional, if rare, opportunities to listen to his insights.

And, as Darren Rovell points out for CNBC.com, there are still video clips of commercials Madden has done over the years.

Rovell has posted some of the best — Ace Hardware, Tinactin, Miller Lite, McDonald's and, of course, EA Sports — for us to enjoy.

But I can't help wondering, what will become of Frank Caliendo? He does some great impressions — more than a hundred, I've heard — but his takeoff on Madden is, in my opinion, one of his best.

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Our Lives Are Better Left to Chance

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A young pitcher for the Los Angeles Angels, 22–year–old Nick Adenhart, died after his vehicle was struck by a hit–and–run driver last night.

Adenhart had just made his first start of the season hours earlier.

I wrote recently on this blog about how the start of baseball season brings out the kid in me. Adenhart's death, in the earliest days of the 2009 season, has the opposite effect. It reminds me how much closer I am to the end of my life than I am to the beginning.

Even if I die in my sleep tonight, I will have had many more years on this planet than Adenhart or his two companions, but I haven't accomplished nearly as much as he did — although I am proud to say that I've done many of the things I always wanted to do. I may not accomplish all of them, but I have achieved many.

In spite of a ligament injury in his pitching arm, Adenhart worked hard and "lived his dream," as his parents said. He pitched in the major leagues. Not everyone lives his/her dream, but Adenhart did. The lesson is that we should all continue to strive for our goals every day.

Clearly, this is a reminder of how brief life can be. Most of us live past the age of 22, but few of us make as much of the time we have.

Adenhart can leave this life with only one regret — he was denied the gift of years to share his talent with the world.

Going Out on a Limb

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I know what the conventional wisdom says.

And I know North Carolina crushed Michigan State when they met a few months ago.

The Tar Heels have long been considered the favorites to be this season's champions.

But we're down to the championship game. It's been 30 years since Magic Johnson took the Spartans to what was, for many, an improbable title game victory over Larry Bird and Indiana State. And the 2009 championship game is being played in Detroit, less than 100 miles from the Michigan State campus.

Logic — or, perhaps, more significantly, statistics — suggests that North Carolina has the edge.

Each team has individual standouts. They just stand out in different things.

• North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough is 13th in the country in free throw percentage, and


• Ty Lawson is tied for 17th in three–pointer percentage.

On the other side, Michigan State's Raymar Morgan is 14th in field goal percentage.

But they both have top 20 national performers in at least one category. In assists, North Carolina's Lawson is tied for 10th in the nation. Michigan State's Kalin Lucas is tied for 16th.

And North Carolina seems to have a decisive edge in team statistics.

• North Carolina led the nation in field goals per game (Michigan State is 95th).


• The Tar Heels are second in points per game (Michigan State is 100th).


• North Carolina is second in rebounds (Michigan State is 34th).


• North Carolina is second in assists (Michigan State is 18th).


• The Tar Heels are fourth in free throws per game (Michigan State is 57th).


• North Carolina is 16th in blocks (Michigan State is not in the top 100).


• North Carolina is 29th in steals (Michigan State isn't in the top 100).

Common sense tells me that North Carolina will win the game.

But I feel this is one of those moments when the underdog is going to deliver.

Like the U.S. hockey team against the Russians at the Lake Placid Olympics in 1980.

Detroit — and the state of Michigan — have been knocked down a few times. Unemployment is well into double digits there now. The car industry is wobbling on the edge of a cliff.

The Spartans can give Michigan and Detroit the kind of psychological lift the 1980 U.S. hockey team gave a battered America.

I think this may be one of those moments that transcend the playing field. It will do you no good to analyze the numbers and apply logic to your prediction. This one will be played from the heart.

I predict Michigan State 79, North Carolina 77.

Look for a Pair of No. 1s in the Final

This is the part of the NCAA Tournament where it gets interesting for me.

We're down to the Final Four and, for the most part, the seedings have held up pretty well. We've got two No. 1s, a No. 2 and a No. 3 in the Final Four. There have been a few upsets but nothing earth–shattering.

It seems to me that the numbers favor the two No. 1s.

The first game, at 5:07 p.m. (Central) tomorrow, matches No. 2 seed Michigan State and No. 1 seed Connecticut.

UConn's Hasheem Thabeet is second in the nation in blocked shots, averaging 4.3 a game. UConn leads the nation in blocks and rebounding and is ninth in free throws made, 16th in points per game, 23rd in field goals and 25th in field goal percentage. Michigan State is 20th in assists (but UConn is 21st).

The second game, which starts about 30 minutes after the first game wraps up, will match No. 3 seed Villanova against No. 1 seed North Carolina.

The Tar Heels lead the nation in field goals per game, and they are second in points per game, rebounding and assists, fourth in free throws made, 11th in field goal percentage, 16th in blocks and 24th in steals

Villanova is eighth in free throws made, but the Wildcats won't get enough free throw opportunities to outlast North Carolina. Besides, the Tar Heels are 10th in free throw percentage while Villanova is 19th.

Three–pointers haven't been a big part of the equation for the Final Four teams so I wouldn't expect a lot from outside.

And, unless something really shocking happens in the semifinals, I expect North Carolina to play Connecticut for the title. From that match, I predict that North Carolina, the preseason favorite, will capture the title on Monday night.