The NFL Playoffs

Back in August, I predicted how the NFL playoff field would look at the end of the regular season.

That day has come, and the results of the season, compared to my predictions, are decidedly mixed.

My predictions did pretty well in the AFC, not so well in the NFC.

In the AFC, I predicted New England would repeat as Eastern Division champion (that was a month before Tom Brady was injured for the season — nevertheless, the Patriots managed to win a share of the division title, but not the tiebreaker that would have given them their tickets to the postseason).

But I correctly predicted that Pittsburgh and San Diego would win their divisions. And I also predicted that Miami would be in the playoffs — but as a wild card team, not as the AFC East champs.

And I correctly predicted the Indianapolis Colts would be in the playoffs — but I said they would win their division. Instead, Indy is in the postseason dance as a wild card team.

On the downside, I picked the hapless Bengals to earn a wild card bid. Cincinnati didn't come close to making it to the postseason, finishing the schedule with a 4-11-1 record.

Instead of Cincinnati and New England, the AFC playoff field includes Tennessee and Baltimore.

(Today, instead of talking about the playoffs, New England's followers seem to be more interested in whether or not Brady proposed to his girlfriend during the holidays.)

I was way off on my predictions for the NFC.

All four of the teams I predicted to win their divisions failed to make the playoffs — Dallas, Chicago, Seattle and New Orleans.

Instead, the four division winners are the New York Giants, Minnesota, Carolina and Arizona.

In my own defense, I did pick the Giants and Vikings to make the playoffs — as the wild card teams, not as the division winners they eventually turned out to be.

But the actual wild card teams, Philadelphia and Atlanta, were not mentioned in my predictions.

I know that the teams I predicted to advance to the Super Bowl — New England and Chicago — won't be there.

Who will be?

The Greatest Game Ever Played

Today is an important anniversary in the history of the National Football League.

Fifty years ago today, the Baltimore Colts and the New York Giants played for the NFL championship. At the end of the fourth quarter, the score was tied.

And, for the first time, a professional football game went into overtime.

I've seen the highlights from the game before, but they were always in the original black-and-white — the way TV viewers saw it on Dec. 28, 1958.

But, to mark the 50th anniversary, ESPN Films and NFL Films created a special colorized presentation of the game film. For the first time, TV viewers could see the Colts and Giants in the uniform colors that the fans at their games saw in 1958.

It also includes commentary from several people who participated in the game — although some of the people who might have had the most interesting insights (Johnny Unitas, Vince Lombardi, Tom Landry, Weeb Ewbank) are no longer around.

The film was first broadcast a couple of weeks ago.

Oddly, it does not appear to have been scheduled for broadcast today — on the actual anniversary.

However, you can see it on New Year's Day on ESPN Classic from 6-8 p.m. (Central).

Home Field in Playoffs May Be On Line Today

On this Sunday before Christmas, the NFL's playoff picture is coming into focus, although there are still some berths to be assigned.

In the AFC, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have clinched spots in the playoffs so three others are still undecided. In the NFC, the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals are definitely in, leaving four spots to be determined.

However, there are two games being played today that should go a long way toward determining who gets home-field advantage through the playoffs — Pittsburgh (11-3) at Tennessee (12-2) in the AFC, and Carolina (11-3) at the New York Giants (11-3) in the NFC.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

It's supposed to be windy in Nashville today, and neither quarterback has been leading the league so I don't expect either team to throw the ball a lot.

The QBs have nearly identical ratings. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger has an 80.2. Tennessee's Kerry Collins has a 78.7. Roethlisberger averages about 30 yards passing more than Collins, and he has four more TD passes as well as a slight edge in pass completion percentage.

But Roethlisberger can be turnover-prone — he has thrown nearly twice as many interceptions as Collins, and he's lost five fumbles.

Hines Ward is Pittsburgh's leading receiver, and he can reach 1,000 in receiving yards if he averages 68 yards per game in the final two contests. Ward also has more receiving TDs than anyone else playing in the game — his nearest competitors are Tennessee's Justin Gage, who has five, and teammate Santonio Holmes, who has four.

Tennessee running back Chris Johnson is second in the league in rushing yards with 1,159, more than 500 yards ahead of Pittsburgh's leading rusher, Willie Parker, who has missed some playing time with a knee injury. Johnson has eight rushing TDs; his teammate, LenDale White, has pitched in 700 yards and 14 TDs. For Pittsburgh, Mewelde Moore has tried to pick up the slack during Parker's absences, contributing 537 yards and four TDs.

Personally, I'm inclined to think defense will dominate the game.

On defense, several of the AFC's sack leaders will be featured in the game. Pittsburgh linebacker James Harrison is second in the AFC in sacks with 15, and he needs only one more to break Mike Merriweather's 24-year-old team record for a season. Another Steeler linebacker, LaMarr Woodley, is tied for third in the AFC with 11.5.

Tennessee defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is seventh in sacks with 8.5, and his teammate, defensive end Jacob Ford, is 11th with six — half a sack ahead of Pittsburgh defensive end Aaron Smith. And Smith is only half a sack ahead of teammate Lawrence Timmons.

Pittsburgh linebacker James Farrior is tied for fourth in the league in tackles with 112. Harrison is the only other defensive player in the top 20 in that category — he's 19th in the league with 85 tackles.

Both teams need to be wary of the opposing secondary, but Tennessee seems to have more defenders that need to be avoided.

Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu shared the league lead in interceptions with Baltimore's Ed Reed when the weekend began, but Reed picked off two passes against Dallas last night. So Polamalu is now second in the AFC with seven.

Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan and safety Michael Griffin have five interceptions apiece, and safety Chris Hope has four.

Pittsburgh kicker Jeff Reed has made nearly 90% of his field goal attempts, and Tennessee kicker Rob Bironas has been one of the league's best all season, making 90.3% of his field goal attempts and connecting on every PAT. But the wind in Nashville today could cause problems for both.

About an hour before the noon (Central) kickoff in Nashville, the temperature is 29° (with a wind chill of 19°), which is nearly today's forecast high of 30°. A west-northwest wind of 15 mph is expected, with gusts possibly reaching 25 mph. But it's expected to be sunny — no precipitation in the forecast.

My Prediction: Tennessee 20, Pittsburgh 17.

Carolina at New York Giants

The Giants rate a slight edge in the QB category.

New York's Eli Manning is ninth in the NFC in QB rating with 86.4. Carolina's Jake Delhomme is 11th, with 82.0. The two are separated by less than 100 yards in passing yardage (with Manning holding the lead), Manning is sixth in the league in passing TDs with 20 (Delhomme has 14) and they're close in completion percentage (Manning has completed 60.3%, Delhomme has completed 58.9%).

As far as turnovers are concerned, Delhomme has thrown more interceptions (12) than Manning (10), and they're about even in fumbles lost (Delhomme has lost three, Manning has lost two).

But the Panthers have the top receiving targets. Carolina's Steve Smith has made 70 receptions for 1,240 yards and six TDs. His teammate, Muhsin Muhammad, has 54 catches for 764 yards and four TDs — but he's also dropped seven passes this season.

The Giants are also led in receiving by a receiver named Steve Smith, but, on 52 catches, he has less than half the yardage (530) his Carolina counterpart has and has managed only one touchdown. Amani Toomer has a few more yards than Smith (537) and four times as many TDs on 44 receptions.

Carolina's DeAngelo Williams is fourth in the NFC in rushing with 1,229 yards. The Giants' Brandon Jacobs recently crossed the 1,000-yard barrier and stands at 1,002, Williams' teammate, Jonathan Stewart, has 751 yards. Jacbos' teammate, Derrick Ward, has 733.

Williams and Stewart have combined for 23 rushing TDs so far this season. For the Giants, Jacobs has scored 12 touchdowns but Ward has only two.

On defense, the Giants have the edge in sacks, and the Panthers have a decisive advantage in tackles. Carolina' Julius Peppers and New York's Justin Tuck are in a battle for fourth in the NFC in sacks. Peppers has 12.5, Tuck has 12.0. The Giants' third-year defensive end, Mathias Kiwanuka, has 8.5 sacks, which matches his total for his first two years in the league, and defensive tackle Fred Robbins has 5.5.

Peppers is tied for second in the league in forced fumbles with five. Tuck has three. Five other players, from both teams, have two each.

Carolina linebacker Jon Beason leads the NFC in tackles with 122, and fellow linebacker Thomas Davis is tied for 11th with 97. None of the Giants are in the top 20 in tackles.

Neither secondary has been overly impressive against the pass. Beason leads Carolina with three interceptions, and cornerbacks Aaron Ross and Corey Webster lead the Giants, with three each.

New York kicker Jon Carney has made 29 of 31 field goal attempts (93.5%) as well as all 35 of his PATs. Carolina's John Kasay has been even more accurate, hitting on 24 of 25 field goal attempts (96%) and all 39 of his PATs.

But the kicking game could be affected by a wicked wind tonight.

East Rutherford, N.J., is expected to have snow until about mid-afternoon today, but the Giants and Panthers won't kick off their game until after sunset — and, by that time, it's supposed to be partly cloudy. During the daylight hours, the temperature is supposed to reach 36°, but the night-time low is expected to be in the teens.

Whether the temperature is actually that low during the game, it will probably feel that cold — if not colder. Forecasters say it will be breezy tonight, 22-24 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph.

My Prediction: Carolina 13, New York 10.

The First May Be Best on Saturday

The 2008-09 bowl season begins on Saturday with four bowl games — the EagleBank Bowl at 10 a.m. (Central) on ESPN; the New Mexico Bowl at 1:30 p.m. (Central) also on ESPN; the St. Petersburg Bowl at 3:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2; and the Las Vegas Bowl at 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN.

There are many more bowl games to be played, of course, and there will be a college football game played every day between now and Jan. 3 (with three more games, including the national championship game to be played between Jan. 5-8) with the exception of next Monday (in deference, I suppose, to Monday Night Football) and Christmas Day.

But the fact is that there won't be another day that has this many college football games scheduled to be played until New Year's Eve.

It's possible to see almost all of the games if you wish, since three of the four are on the same cable channel and the other is on a sister channel. But I think it's only fair for you to be warned that the first one — the EagleBank Bowl — will probably be the best one — although the last one, the Las Vegas Bowl, shows some promise.

EagleBank Bowl

One of the things to recommend a game featuring Wake Forest (7-5) and Navy (8-4) is that it is a rematch. Navy beat Wake Forest, 24-17, on Sept. 27 — but Wake Forest leads the all-time series with Navy, 6-3.

Neither team was particularly strong in its passing game — in fact, Navy's was about the worst in the country, averaging slightly more than 63 yards per game — but Navy had the best running game in the nation, averaging nearly 300 yards per contest. Running back Shun White had touchdown runs of 87 and 71 yards and averaged 8.7 yards per carry en route to a 1,021-yard season.

I haven't seen the numbers on this, but I would imagine that, by relying on its ground game, Navy controlled time of possession.

Although Wake Forest struggled on offense, the Demon Deacons have the statistical advantage on defense. Wake Forest was 17th in points allowed, 19th in total defense, 21st in run defense and 28th in passing defense. Cornerback Alphonso Smith was one of the nation's leaders in interceptions with six.

If Wake Forest's defense can stop Navy's running game, I think it could come down to a field goal — if so, there are few college kickers I'd rather have than the one on the Navy sideline, Matt Harmon, who tied for third in field goal accuracy this season (89.5%). For his career, Harmon has succeeded on 31 of 40 attempts, and his longest of the year was 49 yards against Ball State.

New Mexico Bowl

The matchup between Colorado State (6-6) and Fresno State (7-5) amounts to nothing more than a couple of average or slightly above average teams whose solitary bright spots seem to cancel each other out — i.e., CSU's passing game is the team's offensive strength while Fresno's pass defense is its defensive strength.

Colorado State was 24th in the nation in passing yards per game, led by QB Billy Farris, who threw for 2,677 yards and 17 touchdowns. He completed 61.7% of his passes and was sacked 20 times. His top targets were Dion Morton (who had 10 TD receptions) and Rashaun Greer (who accumulated more than 1,000 yards receiving).

As I mentioned, Fresno State wasn't bad against the pass. The Bulldogs ranked 50th in the nation. But their interception leader, defensive back Marvin Haynes, had only two picks all season.

For that matter, Fresno wasn't bad, just not inspiring, throwing the ball. QB Tom Brandstater threw for nearly 2,500 yards and completed nearly 60% of his passes. He might enjoy some success against CSU's pass defense, which was 84th in the nation.

Neither defense put up impressive numbers against the run, which might benefit Fresno State, since its running game was 35th in the nation. But Fresno's leading rusher barely cracked 700 yards for the season. Colorado State ranked 79th in rushing, but at least the Rams had a 1,000-yard rusher in running back Gartrell Johnson.

Both gave up about 30 points a game, and that's about how many points Fresno's offense averaged this season. Colorado State averaged about 24 points per game.

St. Petersburg Bowl

On offense, Memphis (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5) comes down to a battle between Memphis' 18th-ranked running game and South Florida's 39th-ranked passing attack.

When Memphis has the ball, it seems likely that RB Curtis Steele will be the focus of attention — he ran for 1,175 yards and seven TDs during the season. QB Arkelon Hall's name may be mentioned a few times as well, but perhaps not for passing. Hall carried the ball 73 times during the season and scored two rushing TDs.

Even so, Hall threw for more than 2,000 yards during the season, which leads me to believe he'll be throwing the ball from time to time.

When South Florida is on offense, QB Matt Grothe's aerial attack will be in the spotlight. Grothe also led the team in rushing yards, but the run game appears to have been pretty balanced, since RB Mike Ford led the team in rushing TDs. It was ranked 51st in the nation.

South Florida has a big edge in almost every defensive category — including run defense, which will be critical against Memphis. South Florida ranked ninth in run defense, holding opponents to an average of less than 100 yards on the ground.

But there may be some hope for Memphis' defense against the South Florida passing game. Memphis ranks 47th in the nation against the pass and thus may be able to counter South Florida's 39th-ranked passing game.

Las Vegas Bowl

The Las Vegas Bowl is the only game on Saturday that features a team that is ranked in the BCS rankings — Brigham Young. BYU is 10-2 and will face 7-5 Arizona.

The team records would suggest that BYU will win in a romp.

But remember, BYU plays in the Mountain West (with Utah and TCU, it's true, but also with San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV, who combined for an overall record of 15-33 and a conference record of 6-26 — BYU outscored these four teams, 148-50, but went 0-2 against TCU and Utah) while Arizona plays in the more competitive Pac-10 (with USC, Oregon, Oregon State and California — Arizona went 1-3 against them but was only outscored 118-114).

The team rankings in the various categories indicate a game that might be closer than you think.

On offense, BYU's Max Hall had the 12th-best QB rating in the nation and he completed nearly 70% of his passes for more than 3,600 yards. Wide receiver Austin Collie led the country in receiving yards, and he made 95 receptions, of which 15 were touchdowns.

BYU's passing game was seventh in the nation, but Arizona's was a respectable #40. QB Willie Tuitama was 24th in passing efficiency and logged more than 2,700 passing yards.

Arizona actually was ranked higher throwing the ball than running it, but running back Nicholas Grigsby amassed 1,066 yards rushing, gaining more than 100 yards on the ground five times.

Consequently, Arizona's running game was ranked higher than BYU's, although the Cougars' Harvey Unga ran for 1,061 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Both teams ranked in the top 20 in scoring. BYU was 19th (averaging 35.3 points per game) and Arizona was 16th (averaging 37.1 points per game).

Arizona plays in a conference that isn't noted for its defense, but the Wildcats have a statistical advantage, at least, over the Cougars in most defensive categories. The most significant edge happens to be the most important for a BYU foe — pass defense. Arizona was 14th in the nation in passing yards allowed, and cornerback Trevin Wade had four interceptions.

If the game comes down to field goals, neither team seems to have an advantage. Both Arizona's Jason Bondzio and BYU's Mitch Payne hit more than 80% of their attempts, and both have connected on attempts longer than 45 yards.

In fact, both of Payne's misses came in the same game — Oct. 3 against Utah State.

Slingin' Sammy Passes Away

When a quarterback like Slingin' Sammy Baugh dies, I guess it's only appropriate to say he "passed away."

Baugh, 94, played his college ball in Fort Worth, Texas, at Texas Christian University. In the NFL, he was a nine-time All-Pro quarterback for the Washington Redskins — although he was one of the greatest all-around players of all time, excelling as a quarterback, defensive back and punter.

"He just finally wore out," his son said.

Although he played in an era when the passing game was seldom used except in desperate situations, Baugh made it a potent part of Washington's offense. In his 16-year career, Baugh completed more than 56% of his passes for more than 21,000 yards and 203 TDs, leading Washington to five NFL East titles and two NFL championships.

His jersey number is the only one the Redskins have ever officially retired.

Baugh was the last surviving inductee from the Hall of Fame's charter class of 1963 — a class of 17 that included George Halas, Red Grange, Bronko Nagurski, Jim Thorpe and Curly Lambeau.

If you're able to watch Sunday's Philadelphia at Washington game, you should. I would be very surprised if the Redskins don't do something to honor Baugh's memory.

And deservedly so.

Sour Grapes

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"I do think it shows that either they love us or they hate us — Gator Nation."

Tim Tebow

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Please.

The Tampa Tribune is serving as a convenient soapbox for Tim Tebow to use to spout his conspiracy theories concerning why he was denied a second Heisman Trophy.

Seems to me it might have had something to do with the fact that Sam Bradford's numbers glittered more than Tebow's did in 2008. Last year, Tebow had the impressive season. This year, Bradford did.

Of course, I've been saying for a long time that the Heisman is awarded too darn early. Bradford and Tebow will meet in the national championship game nearly four weeks from now. Two other quarterbacks, both just as deserving of recognition — Colt McCoy of Texas and Graham Harrell of Texas Tech — have bowl games to play in January as well.

And Harrell, who wasn't even invited to the Heisman ceremony although he had more passing yardage than any of the athletes who were summoned to New York, will face the only team that has beaten Tebow's Gators this season — Ole Miss.

Seems to me the prudent thing to do would be to wait until after the postseason games have been played. At least, with the Heisman winner still undetermined, players like McCoy and Harrell would have something to play for besides "school pride."

If the Yale Club would wait until mid-January to vote on the Heisman, the results of the bowl games could be considered — and the voters could be spared the scenario that has been repeated so often in recent years — in which a runnerup in the Heisman vote embarrasses the winner in a nationally televised postseason showdown.

Like when Oklahoma and Josh Heupel beat Florida State and Chris Weinke for the national crown in 2000.

Or when Miami's Ken Dorsey beat Nebraska's Eric Crouch for the 2001 national championship.

Or when Texas' Vince Young scored the national championship-winning TD against Reggie Bush's USC team in January 2006.

Maybe losing the Heisman serves as motivation for the runnerup.

And sometimes, I guess, the runnerup finds other sources for inspiration.

When asked why this alleged bias against Florida exists, he replied, "I think it probably started with (Steve) Spurrier's swagger, to tell you the truth. How he handled situations. He either drew people in or made people not like the Gators and The Swamp."

Well, Spurrier is a convenient scapegoat. He left Florida in 2001. He is back in the SEC — but as the coach of South Carolina.

Tebow's response reminds me of the Aesop's fable, "The Fox and the Grapes." Been awhile since you read Aesop? Well, basically, what it comes down to is, this fox is strolling along and he sees some grapes hanging from a tree. The fox is hungry so he tries to get the grapes, but they're hanging too high.

After repeated failures to get the grapes, the fox gives up and says, "The grapes are probably sour, anyway."

The moral of the story is, "It is easy to despise what you cannot get."

The Heisman Snub

Maybe I missed something.

But why wasn't Texas Tech's Graham Harrell invited to attend the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York this weekend?

Three quarterbacks were invited — Florida's Tim Tebow, who won the Heisman last year; Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, who seems likely to win it this year, and Texas' Colt McCoy.

Statistically, it shouldn't even be an issue. Harrell had more passing yardage than any of the other three quarterbacks who will be in New York Saturday night.

He was second in the nation in passing yardage, as a matter of fact — behind Houston's quarterback (who plays in the defensively challenged Conference USA — to give you an idea of just how challenged it is, UH's QB passed for five TDs and nearly 500 yards in the season finale against Rice, and the Cougars still lost the game by two touchdowns).

For that matter, in the Big 12, Missouri's Chase Daniel and Kansas' Todd Reesing threw for more yardage than McCoy. And Tebow didn't even finish in the Top 20 nationally in that category.

Harrell threw more TD passes than Tebow or McCoy. And he only threw seven interceptions in 568 pass attempts (by comparison, Bradford was intercepted six times in 442 attempts and McCoy was picked off seven times in 375 attempts). To be fair, Tebow was only picked off twice (in fact, he's only been intercepted nine times in more than 650 career pass attempts).

Those three quarterbacks who will attend the Heisman ceremony did rate higher than Harrell in passing efficiency — but they all (including Harrell) finished in the top 10 nationally in that category.

I see no justification for omitting Harrell — and I can understand why Tech's partisans are feeling dissed.

The Raider Buzz blog says it is one more example of how Tech is "overlooked by the rest of the nation" and sees a pattern: "Tech is in a BCS conference and has one loss. It lost to the team that will play for a national title. So why is Tech ranked lower than one-loss USC, which lost to Oregon State … a team that lost four games? So why is Tech ranked lower (in the AP and USA Today polls) than one-loss Penn State … which lost to Iowa … another team that lost four games?"

I understand that Harrell isn't going to win the Heisman. I knew that when Tech got buried late in the season by Oklahoma.

But, for the season he's had, he deserves a trip to New York.

Being denied that national recognition is nothing more or less than a snub.

Evaluating the BCS Bowls

In the BCS' present arrangement, four of the "traditional" bowl games and a national championship game are labeled "BCS bowls" — in what passes for a playoff series — although only the top two teams in the BCS rankings at the end of the season compete for the national title.

This season, the finalists are Florida and Oklahoma. They will face each other in Miami on Jan. 8.

I broke down that matchup (to a degree) the other day and I'll have more to say about it in the coming weeks.

Today, I would like to evaluate the other four games.

Fiesta Bowl
Monday, Jan. 5
8 p.m. (EST), FOX

Texas (11-1, #3 in BCS) vs. Ohio State (10-2, #10 in BCS) — Some pro-Texas theorists have been coming up with wildly improbable scenarios that will bend the time/space continuum until it snaps like a dry twig.

In reality, though, the best Texas can hope for is to beat Ohio State and finish the season second behind either Florida or Oklahoma.

The Buckeyes and the Longhorns should be fairly familiar foes. They faced each other in high-profile nonconference games in 2005 and 2006. Texas won the first meeting, 25-22, and Ohio State won the second, 24-7.

Here's how they compare offensively:

• Texas is 11th in the nation in passing yards per game. Ohio State ranks 104th.


• But Ohio State, behind the running of Chris Wells, has the statistical edge in rushing yards. The Buckeyes are 28th. The Longhorns are 34th.


• In points per game, there's no comparison. Texas is fifth in the nation, averaging 43.9 points per game. Ohio State is 45th, averaging 28.2 points per game.

Well, we knew Texas was putting up some good numbers on offense.

On the defensive side of the ball,

• Both teams have done a pretty good job of keeping opponents from scoring, but Ohio State has the advantage. The Buckeyes are seventh in the country, giving up an average of 13.1 points per game. The Longhorns are 21st in the nation, allowing 18.6 points per game.


• The Texas defense is ranked second in the nation in rushing defense, which is bad news for the Ohio State offense. The Buckeyes' run defense is pretty good, too, with a national ranking of 20th.


• Ohio State's pass defense (with Kurt Coleman, tied for 35th in the country in interceptions) is ranked sixth in the nation, which is bad news for the Texas offense and Colt McCoy. Texas' pass defense is 110th in the country — which is comparable to the OSU pass offense.


• Total defense belongs to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are ranked eighth in the country. The Longhorns are ranked 50th.

If Texas plays like it did when it still had hope of playing in the Big 12 title game, I think the Longhorns can handle the Buckeyes.

But, if Texas can't shake off the disappointment of not being in the national championship game, I think Ohio State can win the game.

The schools played no common opponents.

Orange Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1
8 p.m. (EST), FOX

Cincinnati (11-2, #12 in BCS) vs. Virginia Tech (9-4, #19 in BCS) — The last time the schools met was two years ago, in September 2006. Virginia Tech won, 29-13.

From a TV ratings perspective, the game has very little to recommend it — certainly not when compared to the Florida-Oklahoma blockbuster that will be played in Miami a week later. But it will have the evening time slot to itself. The Orange Bowl will be the only game being played on New Year's Night.

How do they match up?

• Cincinnati is ranked 24th in the country in passing yardage (with Tony Pike, who is 29th in the nation in passing efficiency). Virginia Tech is 112th.


• But Tech has the edge in rushing yardage. Tech ranks 42nd. Cincinnati is 94th.


• Neither team has been lighting up the scoreboard. Cincinnati is 51st in points per game. Tech is 89th.

Something tells me not to expect a high-scoring affair, although you never know. Cincinnati's Mardy Gilyard is 18th in the nation in all-purpose yardage.

On defense,

• Virginia Tech is 13th in the nation in points allowed per game. Cincinnati isn't bad, ranked 27th.


• Both teams enjoyed success stopping the run this season. Cincinnati ranks 13th in run defense. Virginia Tech ranks 19th.


• Virginia Tech is 15th in the nation in defending against the pass, thanks in part to Victor Harris, who tied for fifth in the nation in interceptions. Cincinnati is 68th.


• Virginia Tech is seventh in the nation in total defense. Cincinnati is 26th.

Virginia Tech's fate may depend upon how well the pass defense can stop Pike.

The schools played no common opponents this year, although one of Cincinnati's losses was to Oklahoma in September.

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Michigan beat Stanford in the first Rose Bowl, 49-0.

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Rose Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1
5 p.m. (EST), ABC

Penn State (11-1, #8 in BCS) vs. USC (11-1, #5 in BCS) — This will be the second time that USC and Penn State have faced each other in the Rose Bowl. The first time they played was on Jan. 1, 1923, in the official dedication of the Rose Bowl stadium.

The two schools took on two common opponents during the 2008 regular season. One was Oregon State. Penn State won its game with OSU easily, 45-14, in early September, but three weeks later, OSU beat USC, 27-21.

The other common opponent was a high-profile foe that both Penn State and USC defeated — Ohio State. USC beat the Buckeyes, 35-3, and Penn State won, 13-6.

On offense,

• USC ranks 31st in in passing yardage (with Mark Sanchez ranked 13th in passing efficiency). Penn State ranks 35th (with Daryll Clark ranked 23rd in passing efficiency).


• It's even closer in rushing yardage. Penn State ranks 15th (led by Evan Royster, who rates 25th in rushing). USC ranks 17th.


• The teams have put up comparable numbers when it comes to scoring — reflecting, I suppose, how close they were to each other in rushing and passing. Penn State is 11th in points per game. USC is 14th.

With two teams that rank in the top 15 in points per game, I'd expect to see a lot of scoring in Pasadena.

Who has the edge in defense?

Well, numerically, the edge belongs to USC, the #1 team in the nation in many defensive categories. But Penn State has had a pretty solid year in defense as well.

• USC was the stingiest team in the nation when it came to giving up points. The Trojans allowed only 7.8 points per game. But Penn State was fourth in the nation, allowing only 12.4 points per game.


• USC has a narrow edge in rushing defense. The Trojans are ranked fifth. The Nittany Lions are ranked eighth.


• Perhaps the most distinct defensive advantage belongs to USC in the category of pass defense. USC ranks first in the nation while Penn State is 12th.


• And USC is first in the nation in total defense. Penn State is fifth.

Both conferences are considered lacking when compared to the Big 12 and the Southeastern conferences, but these two teams seem to be well matched and could provide the most competitive of the major bowls.

Sugar Bowl
Friday, Jan. 2
8 p.m. (EST), FOX

Alabama (12-1, #4 in BCS) vs. Utah (12-0, #6 in BCS) — If you're not a fan of the passing game, this might be the game for you.

• In passing offense, Utah ranks 41st (even so, Brian Johnson ranks 18th in passing efficiency). Alabama ranks 96th.


• In rushing offense, Alabama is 23rd (Glen Coffee is 21st in the country in rushing). Utah is 41st.


• In points per game, Utah is 15th. Alabama is 30th.

On defense, both teams rank pretty highly, although I think that probably means more in Alabama's case than Utah's.

The Southeastern Conference is simply superior to the Mountain West.

• In points allowed per game, Alabama is sixth. Utah is 12th.


• In rushing defense, Alabama is fourth in the nation. Utah is 14th.


• In pass defense, Alabama is 21st (Rashad Johnson shares 31st in interceptions). Utah is 40th (but Sean Smith is tied for 21st in interceptions).


• And in total defense, Alabama is third. Utah is 18th.

The teams faced no common opponents this season.

Florida Will Be Worthy Foe For Oklahoma

The BCS selections won’t be announced for more than four hours, although I’m inclined to agree with Stewart Mandel when he says, in Sports lllustrated, that "there will be little suspense" — and most of that will be over whether Oklahoma or Florida should be ranked #1.

In spite of the three-way tie for the Big 12 South title and the rule that put the tiebreaker in the hands of the BCS, it’s hard to argue against Oklahoma’s inclusion in the national championship game after the Sooners exceeded 60 points for the fifth consecutive game Saturday night.

If the Sooners had scored another field goal against Kansas State, they would have broken 60 in six straight.

It’s the most productive offense in memory — the first in the modern era, observes Jake Trotter in The Oklahoman, to score more than 700 points in a season.

Even in their only loss of the year, the Sooners scored five touchdowns.

Now, Oklahoma will have to face what is arguably the best defense it has faced all season. "Finally, perhaps, the Sooner offense may meet its match," writes Trotter.

Actually, Texas fans might argue that the Sooner offense already met its match.

Quarterback Tim Tebow — who won last year’s Heisman but will, I believe, finish second to Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford this year — and the Gator offense get all the attention, but the defense has been quietly doing its job all season.

Granted, TCU — which held the Sooners to 35 points in their September meeting — ranks higher in every team defense category than Florida or any of the teams Oklahoma played this season.

In all fairness, TCU does play in the Mountain West conference. And, while that conference has some respectable programs — like Utah and Brigham Young — it isn’t exactly as deep as the Southeastern Conference.

That’s why Florida will be a worthy adversary in Oklahoma’s final hurdle to the national title. The Gators face high-quality programs every week.

The Gators haven’t scored as prodigiously as the Sooners, and it’s the very absence of the kind of glittering numbers he compiled last year that appears to stand in Tebow’s way this year.

But perhaps the Heisman voters will remember that his success as a sophomore made Tebow the target of everyone he played as a junior — much like the 1973 Miami Dolphins team that had to defend not only its Super Bowl title but its undefeated season every time it took the field.

It’s hard to meet expectations when you’ve got a target on your chest in every game.

Even so, Tebow and the Gators haven’t done poorly. The offense hasn't put up Oklahoma-like numbers, but the defense is highly ranked in most categories and held the top-ranked team in the nation, Alabama, to 20 points in yesterday’s SEC title game.

For the record, the ’73 Dolphins didn’t do too badly, either. In spite of the pressure of being the squad that had to defend the legendary 17-0 season, Miami only lost two games the next year, won the Super Bowl and finished with an overall record of 15-2.

A Painful Memory

Today, during the first half of the Alabama-Florida game, they mentioned that this was the first time in 39 years that the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the Associated Press poll faced each other in December.

I remember that game. It occurred exactly 39 years ago today, December 6, in 1969. It was the Arkansas-Texas game.

Some folks called it "The Game of the Century." And some folks called it "The Great Shootout."

I grew up in Conway, Ark., which is in the central part of the state, and the Arkansas campus, where the game was played, is in the northwest corner of the state, about 120 miles away.

But geography doesn't matter in Arkansas. Whether you live in Texarkana to the southwest, Blytheville to the northeast or Monticello to the southeast or anywhere in between, just about everyone pulls for the Razorbacks.

And, in 1969, there was no cable. There were only the three major networks — and some restrictive regulations that limited the number of TV appearances a program could make during the regular season.

ABC's Roone Arledge made a deal with Arkansas coach/athletic director Frank Broyles to move the game to the end of the season, meaning an exclusive national viewing audience — and Arledge threw in a pledge that the president, Richard Nixon, would attend the game in person.

Arledge also promised to televise Arkansas' season opener the next year, which was against Jim Plunkett and Stanford.

In return, Broyles had to assure Arledge the footing would be good, so he installed AstroTurf at Razorback Stadium.

It was a gamble that Arkansas and Texas would win the rest of their games and play in a showdown of unbeaten teams as the regular-season finale for college football's 100th season.

The gamble paid off. Both teams were unbeaten. Nixon arrived after the kickoff, but in time to see most of the game. He was accompanied by politicians from both states, including a young representative from Texas named George H.W. Bush.

It's hard to imagine, these days, how incredible the hype was for the game. In their book "The Razorbacks," veteran Arkansas sportswriters Jim Bailey and Orville Henry called it "The Day The Nation Watched," and it truly was.

The day was raw and damp, as I recall. We lived in a hilly area and depended on the old-fashioned TV antenna to pick up signals from the Little Rock stations. The weather interfered with the TV signals and, at one point during the game, the wind and the rain knocked it loose. The picture suddenly went haywire.

My father decided to climb up on the roof to re-attach the antenna. I remember watching him climb up the ladder and make his way to the apex of the roof while the wind swirled around him and a cold rain stung him from time to time. From below, my mother called up instructions to him, advising my father not to electrocute himself.

Somehow, he fixed the antenna and we watched the rest of the game from the comfort of our living room. In the cold and the rain in Fayetteville, Texas rallied from a 14-0 deficit with 15 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and won the game, 15-14.

Nixon came down to Texas' locker room and proclaimed the Longhorns the national champions — even though they still had a Cotton Bowl date with Notre Dame on New Year's Day.

The pain in Arkansas the following week was almost too great to describe.

Actually, a much better memory of a December 6 — for Arkansas fans — came six years later. In Little Rock's War Memorial Stadium, Arkansas upset previously unbeaten and second-ranked Texas A&M, 31-6, to win the Southwest Conference and advance to the Cotton Bowl, where the Razorbacks beat the Georgia Bulldogs, 31-10.

Will Tebow Jump to the NFL?

In Florida Today, David Jones reports that Florida's junior quarterback — and defending Heisman Trophy winner — Tim Tebow is considering "fil[ing] the paperwork with the NFL to see about his possible draft status, should he elect to leave school early for the NFL."

That's not really a surprise in this day and age. It often seems to be less common for an athlete to stay at a school for four years than it is to jump after one's junior year.

Merely filing the paperwork doesn't mean Tebow will leave school early — but it does mean he's weighing that option.

Seen in that context, then, it's prudent to regard Saturday's SEC championship game against top-ranked Alabama as Tebow's final conference game of his collegiate career. If it isn't, it still should be an entertaining game to watch.

Jones also reports that the CBS announcers who will handle the duties in the broadcast booth — Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson — believe that Tebow could win his second Heisman if he has a big game against Alabama.

And Jones reports that the only man — so far — to win two Heisman Trophies, Archie Griffin, also thinks Tebow has a strong shot.

Former Heisman winners are permitted to vote in the Heisman balloting, but Griffin said he wants to watch Tebow's performance against Alabama before deciding how he'll vote.

Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford is considered the front-runner for this year's Heisman.

Breaking News (?) From Auburn

The Birmingham News is reporting that the decision to dismiss football coach Tommy Tuberville has been made at Auburn.

No announcement has been made so far, but Tuberville met with the athletic director yesterday and today. And today he also met with the university president.

When an announcement is made, it will be either that he's been fired or that he's the recipient of a rousing endorsement from the Auburn administration.

And I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that "rousing endorsement." The signals seem to suggest a coaching change is in the works.

Charles Goldberg points out that Auburn was a "disappointing 5-7" this season — and, certainly, the 36-0 loss to in-state rival Alabama in last weekend's "Iron Bowl" is one of the disappointments that Auburn fans endured this year.

But Tuberville is 7-3 against Alabama in his tenure at Auburn — and, before Saturday's loss, he had won six in a row against the Crimson Tide.

As it is with all coaches, it's about the numbers. The cumulative numbers.

Of course, it wasn't just the loss to Alabama that hurt Tuberville's cause — although it obviously didn't help.

Considering that Auburn came into the season as the media's choice to win the SEC West — but Alabama won the division and may play for the national title — I think it may have been just one more nail in Tuberville's coffin.

He might have been able to salvage his job with a win over Alabama — but that's going to be nothing but speculation now, I believe.

After the Tigers started the season 3-0, they won only two of their last nine games — and they will take a five-game SEC losing streak into the 2009 season, whoever the coach is.

To say Auburn's offense struggled this season is to be generous:

• Auburn was 100th in the nation in passing yards per game.


• Auburn was 71st in the nation in rushing yards per game.


• The Tigers were 112th in the nation in scoring.

Auburn was somewhat better on defense.

But the defense couldn't compensate for the fact that Auburn only scored about 17 points per game.

• Auburn was 17th in the nation in points allowed per game.


• The Tigers were 53rd in rushing yards allowed.


• Auburn was 23rd in the nation in passing yards allowed.


• And the Tigers were 26th in total defense.

SEC, Big 12 on Collision Course

If everything goes according to expectations, the SEC and Big 12 Conference championship games on Saturday will decide the participants in the national championship game in Miami on Jan. 8.

That seems to be a given in the SEC, where the top-ranked team in the BCS, Alabama, will play the #4 team in the BCS, Florida. That game will be played in Atlanta starting at 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS. Whichever team wins is expected to advance to the national championship game.

In the Big 12, the team that is ranked #2 in the BCS — Oklahoma — faces the team that is currently ranked 20th in the BCS — Missouri.

If Oklahoma wins the game, the Sooners are expected to play for the national title, but Missouri will not advance to Miami if the Tigers pull off the upset. If Missouri does beat Oklahoma, it is expected that Texas will face either Alabama or Florida in the national championship game.

That game will be televised at 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC.

Here's how things look:

• Florida vs. Alabama — This appears to be shaping up as a confrontation between the Florida offense, led by defending Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, and the Alabama defense — although Tebow's numbers aren't as spectacular as they were last year.
  
  In the offensive categories,
  
  
  • Florida is 61st nationally in passing yards per game. Alabama is 97th.
  
  
  • Florida is 10th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Alabama is 22nd.
  
  
  • In points per game, Florida is third in the nation, scoring slightly more than 46 points per game. Alabama is 29th with an average of about 32 points per game.
  
  On the defensive side of the ball,
  
  
  • The two teams are neck and neck in points allowed per game. Alabama is third in the country, giving up 11.5 points per game. Florida is fourth in the country, yielding 12.3 points per game.
  
  
  • In rushing defense, Alabama is ranked second in the nation. Florida is ranked 12th.
  
  
  • In passing defense, Florida holds a narrow lead over Alabama. Florida is 17th in the nation and Alabama is 20th.
  
  
  • In total defense, Alabama is ranked third. Florida is ranked seventh.

What does all that mean? Well, on offense, Florida has the edge in the significant team categories, but both teams are strong running the ball. Tebow's passing seems to have helped the Gators build a big advantage in scoring — but don't overlook Tebow's ability to score TDs on the ground, which has helped the Gators' running game become one of the 10 best in the nation.

On defense, both teams have been successful in preventing the other team from scoring and both teams have done a good job of stopping the run and the pass. Ultimately, Alabama's pass defense may hold the key. If the defenders can stop Tebow by land and by air, Alabama should win the game — but the Crimson Tide will still need help from its offensive unit.

It may be helpful to look at some of the individual statistics.

Penalties, for example.

Florida has been penalized nearly twice as often as Alabama. Some ill-timed penalties could halt crucial Florida drives or breathe new life into Alabama drives.

Being from opposing divisions, the two teams have few opponents in common. Alabama beat three teams from the SEC East — Georgia, 41-30; Kentucky, 17-14; and Tennessee, 29-9. Florida also beat those three teams by scores of 49-10, 63-5, and 30-6, respectively.

Florida went 2-1 in its games against the SEC West, losing to Ole Miss, 31-30, and beating Arkansas, 38-7, and LSU, 51-21. Alabama went 3-0 against those teams, 24-20, 49-14 and 27-21.

When comparing the results of the games against those six teams, Florida clearly performed better against Georgia, Kentucky and LSU. Alabama narrowly beat the Ole Miss team that barely beat Florida. And the outcomes against Tennessee and Arkansas were roughly the same for both Alabama and Florida.

It's a close call. I've felt all season that Alabama was the best team in the country, and I'll stick with the Crimson Tide in this game.

But I won't be surprised if it goes into overtime.


• Missouri vs. Oklahoma — Let's look at the same categories in the Big 12 championship game — but because the BCS rankings put OU into the championship game and left Texas out, I compare the numbers of the two combatants with the numbers put up by the Longhorns:
  
  In the offensive categories,
  
  
  • Oklahoma and Missouri are neck and neck in passing yardage. Oklahoma is third in the country, Missouri is fourth. (Texas, by the way, is 11th.)
  
  
  • In rushing yardage, Oklahoma is 21st in the country. Missouri is ranked 46th. (Texas is 34th.)
  
  
  • In points per game, Oklahoma leads the nation with a 53.3 average. Missouri is fourth with a 45.0 average. (Texas is sixth, averaging 43.9 points per game.)

In the defensive categories,


• Missouri is 58th in the nation in points allowed per game, giving up an average of 24.7. Oklahoma is 60th, surrendering 24.8. (Texas is 21st, yielding 18.6 points per game.)


• Oklahoma is ranked 18th in rushing defense. Missouri is ranked 24th. (Texas is third.)


• In passing defense, Oklahoma is 99th in the nation. Missouri is nearly the worst, ranked 117th. (Texas falls in between the two at 109th.)


• In total defense, Oklahoma ranks 66th. Missouri ranks 92nd. (Texas is 50th).

Based on those numbers, I expect a high-scoring game between these two schools. The most important factor appears to be the passing game, On the offensive side of the ball, both schools are in the top five nationally, but both passing defenses are among the worst in the nation.

Oklahoma's had a pretty good running game this year while Missouri's has been adequate if unspectacular. Both defenses are in the top 25 against the run so, while the running game has been a traditional component of OU's offense, I don't expect it to be the key in Saturday's game.

Oklahoma has forced more turnovers and committed fewer than Missouri. But the Sooners have been penalized twice as often as the Tigers. If you're talking about the turnovers when the game is over, OU probably won. But if you're talking about the penalties that were committed, Missouri may have pulled off the upset.

How did they do against common foes? Well, like the SEC championship contenders, they each played three teams from the other school's division.

Oklahoma was 3-0 against Big 12 North foes Kansas (45-31), Kansas State (58-35) and Nebraska (62-28). Missouri was 2-1 against those teams, losing to Kansas last weekend (40-37) but beating Kansas State (41-24) and Nebraska (52-17).

The Sooners clearly played better against Kansas and won by a wider margin against Kansas State, but the Tigers actually had a wider margin against Nebraska than Oklahoma did.

Against the Big 12 South, Missouri was 1-2, narrowly beating Baylor (31-28) and losing to Texas (56-31) and Oklahoma State (28-23). Oklahoma also lost to Texas (45-35) but beat Baylor (49-17) and Oklahoma State (61-41).

Both teams lost to Texas, but the final point spread was closer in the Oklahoma game. OU beat Baylor by 10 times the margin Missouri did and beat Oklahoma State while Missouri lost to OSU. Again, the edge goes to Oklahoma.

The numbers seem to favor Oklahoma.