The Oklahoma Sooners grabbed a narrow lead over Texas in the latest BCS standings today, thus taking the Big 12 South's spot in next Saturday's conference championship game against Missouri.
Alabama ranks first in the BCS standings and will play Florida for the SEC title next week. Florida is fourth in the rankings — but it is widely assumed that, if Florida defeats Alabama, the Gators will play for the national title. If Alabama wins, it is a given that the Crimson Tide will be in the national title game.
For that reason, the SEC championship game is being treated as a national semifinal playoff game.
If Oklahoma beats Missouri, it is also widely assumed that the Sooners will face either the Crimson Tide or the Gators in the national championship game.
But, if OU happens to lose to Missouri, the logical assumption is that Texas, which is third in the BCS rankings and only a hair behind the Sooners, will move up to take the other slot in the national championship game.
I think that's a pretty safe assumption.
So, if you're a Texas fan, you'll probably have to hope that Missouri has the biggest game in its history next week.
That's kind of a dicey proposition.
As members of different divisions in the Big 12, the two schools do not face each other every season — only on an alternating basis. In 2007 and 2006, though, they did face each other during the regular season and, in 2007, they met for a second time in the Big 12 championship game. The Sooners won all three meetings by an average score of 35-19.
Missouri has had some good teams in the last few years, but the Tigers have had something of a split personality this season.
They were competitive against a good Oklahoma State team this year — but they were 1-2 against ranked opponents, and that one victory came at the very beginning of the season against then-No. 20 Illinois, which finished the season unranked and a disappointing 5-7.
The Tigers thoroughly dominated every team in their division except the Kansas team that beat them on Saturday — but they barely got past Baylor four weeks ago.
By the way, Kansas lost to all three of the teams that shared the Big 12 South title — but the Jayhawks would have won the Big 12 North if they had beaten Nebraska on Nov. 8.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Sorting Out the Big 12 South
I've been trying to figure out a fair way of breaking the three-way tie between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South.
In the latest developments, Texas moved past Oklahoma in the latest AP poll, and Oklahoma was a mere one point ahead of Texas in the coaches' poll. There are still some numbers to come, to be digested and then applied to the Big 12 South race.
Of course, the BCS will do that for us later today. But my objective is to find a way to break the tie and send the most appropriate representative to the conference championship game — without permitting the BCS rankings to interfere, influence or make the decision.
Oklahoma is, deservedly, proud of its high-scoring offense (although the Longhorns and Red Raiders also have put lots of points on the board this season).
And Texas is, deservedly, proud of its stingy scoring defense.
All of which supports my primary position, which is that football is a team game.
In spite of the massive attention that the "skill" players — the quarterbacks, running backs and wideouts — receive, football is still a team game. Every player has to do his part for the unit to succeed.
The quarterback with the best, most accurate arm in the country will rarely even get a pass into the air if his offensive line is unable to hold its blocks. The fastest, most elusive running back will find few holes to run through if the offensive linemen do not do their jobs.
And each coach handles his team differently. Coach A may take his starters out of the game as soon as they've built a lead of about 20 points or so. Coach B may prefer to wait until the score is more lopsided. Coach C may not take his starters out at all, no matter what the score.
Consequently, there may be huge — although technically insignificant — variations in point differentials.
In the great scheme of things, though, a win should be a win should be a win.
If we start rewarding teams because of point differentials, we encourage programs to schedule vastly inferior nonconference foes and keep pouring on the points long after the issue has been decided.
That means fewer and fewer nonconference games will be scheduled between national powers. The only meaningful games to be played during the regular season will be the ones that are played within a conference.
By emphasizing point differentials, we also encourage coaches to put their best players at risk of injury much longer than they otherwise would be inclined — strictly in the interest of adding another touchdown or two to the final score.
This season, it has been impressive that Oklahoma has scored at least 52 points in two-thirds of its games. And the offense deserves to be recognized for its accomplishments.
But the Sooners had to score a lot of points — half of the time, they gave up at least 28 to the opposition. In fact, only one Big 12 rival (Baylor) failed to score at least 21 points against the Sooners.
And, if Oklahoma State had scored 41 points against Texas as it did against OU, the Cowboys — not the Longhorns — would have come in to the Thanksgiving weekend with a chance of playing for the conference crown.
It's true that the Sooners have averaged about 59 points per game since the Oct. 11 loss to Texas. But it's also true that, in that same six-game span, the defense has given up nearly 31 points per game.
Most teams will win if they score 31 points.
On average, at least 59 other schools gave up fewer points per game this season than the Sooners.
Scoring alone, clearly, doesn't tell the story of a team's season.
And, just as clearly, defense is still important, even with all the attention that the Big Three quarterbacks have drawn this season.
So I've decided to look at seven team categories:
Whichever team is ranked higher among the three teams in a particular category receives one point. The team that is ranked second in that category receives two points. The team with the third-best ranking receives three points. Differentials within categories are not considered.
The team with the lowest number, therefore, is the team that should represent the division in the conference championship.
Using this approach, Texas ranks first in three of the seven categories — scoring defense, rushing defense and total defense. Texas Tech (passing offense and passing defense) and Oklahoma (rushing offense and scoring offense) each rank first in two categories.
But Oklahoma earns the edge by being no worse than second in the other five categories. The final point totals were:
Those categories were passing offense and passing defense.
Texas Tech appears to have lost whatever momentum it had prior to the Oklahoma game. The Red Raiders had a chance to make a statement against Baylor — and barely avoided an embarrassing upset. In the process, they have worked themselves out of a discussion of which they were in charge until their trip to Norman a week ago.
So the battle is between Texas and Oklahoma. Personally, I feel the best way to compare two teams is their head-to-head meeting. The outcome of that game, a win for Texas, is a fact — millions watched it on TV — whereas the assertion that Oklahoma is playing better than Texas right now is purely subjective.
It seems to me that such a conclusion puts the burden of proof on the prosecution (Oklahoma), but where is the proof that the Longhorns are playing any worse than they were playing the day they beat the Sooners? The only such evidence might be the Longhorns' last-second loss in Lubbock on Nov. 1 — but, since that time, Texas has outscored its opponents by an average of 31 points.
Nevertheless, I feel Oklahoma will probably move past Texas in the BCS rankings later today.
Whatever happens, it's sure to be controversial.
In the latest developments, Texas moved past Oklahoma in the latest AP poll, and Oklahoma was a mere one point ahead of Texas in the coaches' poll. There are still some numbers to come, to be digested and then applied to the Big 12 South race.
Of course, the BCS will do that for us later today. But my objective is to find a way to break the tie and send the most appropriate representative to the conference championship game — without permitting the BCS rankings to interfere, influence or make the decision.
Oklahoma is, deservedly, proud of its high-scoring offense (although the Longhorns and Red Raiders also have put lots of points on the board this season).
And Texas is, deservedly, proud of its stingy scoring defense.
All of which supports my primary position, which is that football is a team game.
In spite of the massive attention that the "skill" players — the quarterbacks, running backs and wideouts — receive, football is still a team game. Every player has to do his part for the unit to succeed.
The quarterback with the best, most accurate arm in the country will rarely even get a pass into the air if his offensive line is unable to hold its blocks. The fastest, most elusive running back will find few holes to run through if the offensive linemen do not do their jobs.
And each coach handles his team differently. Coach A may take his starters out of the game as soon as they've built a lead of about 20 points or so. Coach B may prefer to wait until the score is more lopsided. Coach C may not take his starters out at all, no matter what the score.
Consequently, there may be huge — although technically insignificant — variations in point differentials.
In the great scheme of things, though, a win should be a win should be a win.
If we start rewarding teams because of point differentials, we encourage programs to schedule vastly inferior nonconference foes and keep pouring on the points long after the issue has been decided.
That means fewer and fewer nonconference games will be scheduled between national powers. The only meaningful games to be played during the regular season will be the ones that are played within a conference.
By emphasizing point differentials, we also encourage coaches to put their best players at risk of injury much longer than they otherwise would be inclined — strictly in the interest of adding another touchdown or two to the final score.
This season, it has been impressive that Oklahoma has scored at least 52 points in two-thirds of its games. And the offense deserves to be recognized for its accomplishments.
But the Sooners had to score a lot of points — half of the time, they gave up at least 28 to the opposition. In fact, only one Big 12 rival (Baylor) failed to score at least 21 points against the Sooners.
And, if Oklahoma State had scored 41 points against Texas as it did against OU, the Cowboys — not the Longhorns — would have come in to the Thanksgiving weekend with a chance of playing for the conference crown.
It's true that the Sooners have averaged about 59 points per game since the Oct. 11 loss to Texas. But it's also true that, in that same six-game span, the defense has given up nearly 31 points per game.
Most teams will win if they score 31 points.
On average, at least 59 other schools gave up fewer points per game this season than the Sooners.
Scoring alone, clearly, doesn't tell the story of a team's season.
And, just as clearly, defense is still important, even with all the attention that the Big Three quarterbacks have drawn this season.
So I've decided to look at seven team categories:
- Passing offense
- Rushing offense
- Scoring offense
- Scoring defense
- Rushing defense
- Passing defense
- Total defense
Whichever team is ranked higher among the three teams in a particular category receives one point. The team that is ranked second in that category receives two points. The team with the third-best ranking receives three points. Differentials within categories are not considered.
The team with the lowest number, therefore, is the team that should represent the division in the conference championship.
Using this approach, Texas ranks first in three of the seven categories — scoring defense, rushing defense and total defense. Texas Tech (passing offense and passing defense) and Oklahoma (rushing offense and scoring offense) each rank first in two categories.
But Oklahoma earns the edge by being no worse than second in the other five categories. The final point totals were:
- Oklahoma 12 points
- Texas 14 points
- Texas Tech 16 points
Those categories were passing offense and passing defense.
Texas Tech appears to have lost whatever momentum it had prior to the Oklahoma game. The Red Raiders had a chance to make a statement against Baylor — and barely avoided an embarrassing upset. In the process, they have worked themselves out of a discussion of which they were in charge until their trip to Norman a week ago.
So the battle is between Texas and Oklahoma. Personally, I feel the best way to compare two teams is their head-to-head meeting. The outcome of that game, a win for Texas, is a fact — millions watched it on TV — whereas the assertion that Oklahoma is playing better than Texas right now is purely subjective.
It seems to me that such a conclusion puts the burden of proof on the prosecution (Oklahoma), but where is the proof that the Longhorns are playing any worse than they were playing the day they beat the Sooners? The only such evidence might be the Longhorns' last-second loss in Lubbock on Nov. 1 — but, since that time, Texas has outscored its opponents by an average of 31 points.
Nevertheless, I feel Oklahoma will probably move past Texas in the BCS rankings later today.
Whatever happens, it's sure to be controversial.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Now It's In The Hands of the Voters
The expected result may not have been achieved in the expected ways — but it's been achieved, nevertheless.
A three-way tie between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech exists at the top of the Big 12 South standings. One of those teams must play Big 12 North champion Missouri next week for the conference title — even though Missouri didn't cover itself with glory in its loss to Kansas earlier today and will deserve to be the underdog in the championship game.
Of the three, Texas' performance against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night was probably along the lines of what most viewers expected to see — a 49-9 blowout.
But then fans almost saw something they didn't expect — Baylor came close to upsetting Tech in Lubbock. The Red Raiders won, 35-28, but, as I pointed out on this blog last week, it's been nearly 20 years since Baylor beat Tech in Lubbock. Tech may have been a bit complacent.
The Red Raiders, perhaps still in a daze after being hammered by OU last week, stumbled around and fell behind by two touchdowns. Thanks to a second-half rally, Texas Tech prevailed and grabbed a share of the Big 12 South title.
And the Red Raiders would be making preparations for the conference championship game at this very minute if OU hadn't managed to beat Oklahoma State, 61-41, in Stillwater tonight.
But the Sooners won that game, so each team is 7-1, and conference rules require that the tie will be broken by the BCS rankings. The team that is ranked highest in the BCS will win the division and advance to face Missouri next week.
We'll find out how that shakes down tomorrow. In the BCS rankings before Thanksgiving, Texas held a slim lead over OU. But, as I mentioned earlier in this blog, I expect Oklahoma to get more credit in the computer rankings for beating Oklahoma State than Texas will get from beating Texas A&M.
It's hard to tell what kind of influence the scores of the final regular-season games will have on the polls, but my guess is that Oklahoma will slip past Texas and go on to play Missouri next weekend.
I must say that I don't particularly care for this wrinkle. When the BCS was created, the objective was to select only the #1 and #2 teams for the national championship. It was never intended to be used as a tiebreaker for a conference championship.
The BCS now seems to be exceeding its intended authority.
The BCS rankings are calculated by including the rankings in the coaches' poll — which means that, if the BCS rankings are used to break a three-way tie for a conference or divisional title, coaches from around the country are playing roles in deciding the winners in conferences other than their own.
That simply doesn't seem right to me.
But that's the rule that's in place in the Big 12 this season. So that's how the tie will be broken.
What about next season? Do you support the status quo?
A three-way tie between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech exists at the top of the Big 12 South standings. One of those teams must play Big 12 North champion Missouri next week for the conference title — even though Missouri didn't cover itself with glory in its loss to Kansas earlier today and will deserve to be the underdog in the championship game.
Of the three, Texas' performance against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night was probably along the lines of what most viewers expected to see — a 49-9 blowout.
But then fans almost saw something they didn't expect — Baylor came close to upsetting Tech in Lubbock. The Red Raiders won, 35-28, but, as I pointed out on this blog last week, it's been nearly 20 years since Baylor beat Tech in Lubbock. Tech may have been a bit complacent.
The Red Raiders, perhaps still in a daze after being hammered by OU last week, stumbled around and fell behind by two touchdowns. Thanks to a second-half rally, Texas Tech prevailed and grabbed a share of the Big 12 South title.
And the Red Raiders would be making preparations for the conference championship game at this very minute if OU hadn't managed to beat Oklahoma State, 61-41, in Stillwater tonight.
But the Sooners won that game, so each team is 7-1, and conference rules require that the tie will be broken by the BCS rankings. The team that is ranked highest in the BCS will win the division and advance to face Missouri next week.
We'll find out how that shakes down tomorrow. In the BCS rankings before Thanksgiving, Texas held a slim lead over OU. But, as I mentioned earlier in this blog, I expect Oklahoma to get more credit in the computer rankings for beating Oklahoma State than Texas will get from beating Texas A&M.
It's hard to tell what kind of influence the scores of the final regular-season games will have on the polls, but my guess is that Oklahoma will slip past Texas and go on to play Missouri next weekend.
I must say that I don't particularly care for this wrinkle. When the BCS was created, the objective was to select only the #1 and #2 teams for the national championship. It was never intended to be used as a tiebreaker for a conference championship.
The BCS now seems to be exceeding its intended authority.
The BCS rankings are calculated by including the rankings in the coaches' poll — which means that, if the BCS rankings are used to break a three-way tie for a conference or divisional title, coaches from around the country are playing roles in deciding the winners in conferences other than their own.
That simply doesn't seem right to me.
But that's the rule that's in place in the Big 12 this season. So that's how the tie will be broken.
What about next season? Do you support the status quo?
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Packers Will Win NFC North
Heading into last weekend, Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota were tied atop the NFC North — formerly the NFC Central but, as always, the "Black and Blue Division" — with records of 5-5.
The Bears and Vikings both won, improving to 6-5 prior to their showdown in Minnesota next weekend. The Packers lost to New Orleans on Monday night.
But I think the Packers can finish on top of the division. And I don't particularly feel that I'm going out on a limb in saying so. Here’s why:
Based on the tiebreaking procedure, the next tiebreaker is best record in division play, and I predict the Packers will clinch that by winning their games with Chicago and Detroit.
Can the Packers win in the playoffs? I don't know, but the objective at this point is simply to get to the playoffs. And I think the Packers will.
The Bears and Vikings both won, improving to 6-5 prior to their showdown in Minnesota next weekend. The Packers lost to New Orleans on Monday night.
But I think the Packers can finish on top of the division. And I don't particularly feel that I'm going out on a limb in saying so. Here’s why:
- Let’s be clear about one thing. The winless Detroit Lions show no inclination to get their first win of the season any time soon.
As Bob Wojnowski observes in the Detroit News, "It's hard to tell if the Lions are feeling the pressure [of losing] or if they're just an accumulation of poor players playing poorly."
Whichever it is, Green Bay and Minnesota each have one game left with Detroit — which should be regarded as lead pipe cinch victories. The Bears have already played Detroit twice this season so the Bears have no more automatic "Ws."
And both the Vikings and Packers pick up a "gimme" victory at Detroit’s expense. - Both Chicago and Green Bay have games to play with the 4-7 Houston Texans, but there’s a catch. The Texans have been much better at home (where they’re 3-2 so far) than they’ve been on the road (where they’re 1-5). The Bears have to play at Houston; the Packers get to play Houston in Green Bay.
The Bears have struggled on the road, so I’ll predict that Houston wins that one. And the Packers will beat Houston at Lambeau Field. - In almost the same situation with a different home-road wrinkle, Chicago and Green Bay each have a game left against 4-7 Jacksonville. The Jaguars have struggled at home, where they’re 1-5, but they’ve got a winning record on the road (3-2). Jacksonville will play at Chicago, then come home to play Green Bay, next month.
Again, the home and road numbers suggest advantage to Green Bay and disadvantage to Chicago, but, in this case, I’m going to predict a reversal from the Houston game outcomes. Chicago wins at home, Green Bay loses at Jacksonville.
Hey, this is the NFL we're talking about. Inexplicable things always happen in the NFL. - If Minnesota gets past Chicago and Detroit in the next two weeks, the Vikings will occupy the top spot in the division at that time with an 8-5 record — and I think that's what will happen.
But they’ve got some mountains to climb against playoff contenders in the final three weeks, when they travel to 7-4 Arizona (the Cardinals are 4-1 at home so far), play host to 7-4 Atlanta (the Falcons have struggled on the road) and finish the regular season with a home game against the 10-1 New York Giants, who are 7-0 against NFC competition.
It’s entirely possible that the Vikings will finish the season at 8-8 or 9-7 — and possibly miss the playoffs. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they’ll beat Atlanta, finishing the season at 9-7. - As for Chicago, I’ve predicted that the Bears will lose to Minnesota and Houston and beat Jacksonville.
That makes the other two games vital for them, and they’re back-to-back home games — against New Orleans on Thursday, Dec. 11, and Green Bay on Monday, Dec. 22.
Neither opponent has played particularly well on the road, but I’m going to predict that at least one — probably the Packers, who have already beaten the Bears once and are more accustomed to the windy, possibly snowy conditions of Soldier Field than the Saints — will win in Chicago.
That leaves Chicago at 8-8. - I’ve predicted that the Packers would beat Detroit and Chicago, which would give them the best division record (5-1). I’ve also predicted they would beat Houston and lose to Jacksonville.
That leaves one more game — this Sunday’s home game against Carolina.
As I see it, this game is all about location, location, location.
Three NFC teams are undefeated at home, and Carolina (8-3 overall) is one of them. But the Panthers are 2-3 on the road.
Green Bay, on the other hand, is not unbeaten at home, but the Packers have been respectable, with a 3-2 record.
And the Panthers are trying to bounce back from Sunday’s 45-28 loss at Atlanta.
Neither team seems to have a real edge in total defense. Carolina ranks eighth in the NFC, Green Bay ranks ninth.
The Packers, however, are second in the NFC in passing defense, whereas the Panthers are 12th in passing offense in the NFC.
On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers has helped the Packers settle into sixth place in the NFC in passing. The Panthers counter with the sixth-ranked passing defense in the NFC.
And, in case you’re wondering about the weather …
The Panthers will leave the comparatively balmy climate of North Carolina (temperatures expected to be in the 50s most of this week) to play in chilly Green Bay, where the forecasters currently predict a high of about 35 on Sunday.
After losing to New Orleans on Monday night, the Packers will be eager for redemption.
And winning that game should contribute to an eventual 9-7 finish for Green Bay.
Based on the tiebreaking procedure, the next tiebreaker is best record in division play, and I predict the Packers will clinch that by winning their games with Chicago and Detroit.
Can the Packers win in the playoffs? I don't know, but the objective at this point is simply to get to the playoffs. And I think the Packers will.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
OU's Win Probably Means UT Is Out
When Oklahoma trounced visiting Texas Tech, 65-21, Saturday night, the Sooners did more than just hang an impressive loss on a previously unbeaten team.
The dust hasn't settled yet, but we already know there will be considerable fallout from that one football game. It's possible that that many hearts haven't been broken in Lubbock, Texas, since the legendary "day the music died."
But the game may have broken more hearts in Austin.
The Longhorns, of course, have lost only once — that last-second miracle in Lubbock a few weeks ago — and they only have one regular-season game left, against their rivals from Texas A&M who have struggled through a 4-7 season. Most people expect Texas to prevail in that one.
But both OU and Tech have only one conference loss as well. And now all three schools' final games next weekend take on a significance in the Big 12 that they would not have achieved if the Red Raiders had won the encounter with the Sooners in Norman, Okla., Saturday night.
As improbable as it may have seemed when the season began, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas A&M can exert enormous influence on the outcome of the race for the Big 12 South title.
But the odds don't seem too favorable for the Longhorns.
Oklahoma must visit in-state rival Oklahoma State next Saturday — the Cowboys have often been pushovers in the past but not this year.
OSU is 9-2, but both losses came in conference play (to Texas, 28-24, and Texas Tech, 56-20) so the Cowboys can't get into the conference championship game unless several wildly improbable things happen. But they can influence who does.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, must play its final home game against 4-7 Baylor next Saturday.
The outcome of the Texas-Texas A&M game will already be known by the time both of those games kick off. The Longhorns and the Aggies will play this year's edition of their storied rivalry on Thanksgiving.
Stewart Mandel says, in Sports Illustrated, that OU's win over Tech has turned the Big 12 South into a "riddle."
But it's really quite simple.
And Oklahoma State seems to hold the key. Because the Cowboys are a ranked opponent, a victory over them will carry more weight in the computer rankings than a win over Texas A&M or Baylor.
So, while Texas has a slim lead today in the BCS, that lead could disappear when the BCS rankings that matter are calculated a week from now.
It will all depend on what happens in three games:
OU should get into it by beating Oklahoma State. And, if OU stumbles in Stillwater, I expect Tech to earn the bid to the conference championship game by beating Baylor.
Texas can win a two-way tie with OU, but it isn't likely to have the highest BCS ranking in the event of a three-way tie. And such a two-way tie with OU can only happen if Tech loses to Baylor.
How long has it been since Baylor beat Texas Tech? Well, the two teams were members of the old Southwest Conference before forming the Big 12 with the members of the old Big Eight along with Texas and Texas A&M in the 1990s. Baylor has never beaten Tech since they've been members of the Big 12.
The last victory Baylor enjoyed over Tech came when they were still in the SWC. It was on Sept. 25, 1993 — by the score of 28-26.
Bill Clinton had been president for less than a year.
Baylor hasn't beaten Texas Tech in Lubbock since 1990.
In just the last four games played between the two teams in Lubbock, Texas Tech has won by an average margin of about five touchdowns, 46.75-12.25.
The dust hasn't settled yet, but we already know there will be considerable fallout from that one football game. It's possible that that many hearts haven't been broken in Lubbock, Texas, since the legendary "day the music died."
But the game may have broken more hearts in Austin.
The Longhorns, of course, have lost only once — that last-second miracle in Lubbock a few weeks ago — and they only have one regular-season game left, against their rivals from Texas A&M who have struggled through a 4-7 season. Most people expect Texas to prevail in that one.
But both OU and Tech have only one conference loss as well. And now all three schools' final games next weekend take on a significance in the Big 12 that they would not have achieved if the Red Raiders had won the encounter with the Sooners in Norman, Okla., Saturday night.
As improbable as it may have seemed when the season began, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas A&M can exert enormous influence on the outcome of the race for the Big 12 South title.
But the odds don't seem too favorable for the Longhorns.
Oklahoma must visit in-state rival Oklahoma State next Saturday — the Cowboys have often been pushovers in the past but not this year.
OSU is 9-2, but both losses came in conference play (to Texas, 28-24, and Texas Tech, 56-20) so the Cowboys can't get into the conference championship game unless several wildly improbable things happen. But they can influence who does.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, must play its final home game against 4-7 Baylor next Saturday.
The outcome of the Texas-Texas A&M game will already be known by the time both of those games kick off. The Longhorns and the Aggies will play this year's edition of their storied rivalry on Thanksgiving.
Stewart Mandel says, in Sports Illustrated, that OU's win over Tech has turned the Big 12 South into a "riddle."
But it's really quite simple.
And Oklahoma State seems to hold the key. Because the Cowboys are a ranked opponent, a victory over them will carry more weight in the computer rankings than a win over Texas A&M or Baylor.
So, while Texas has a slim lead today in the BCS, that lead could disappear when the BCS rankings that matter are calculated a week from now.
It will all depend on what happens in three games:
- In what looks like the most likely scenario, if OU beats OSU and both Texas and Texas Tech also win (as they will be expected to do), a three-way tie will exist at the top of the Big 12 South standings. Such a tie will be broken based on which team is ranked higher in the BCS standings. In such a scenario, all three teams would be 1-1 in their head-to-head meetings, and no one would hold the advantage.
Assuming that beating Oklahoma State will give OU enough momentum to overtake Texas in the BCS standings, Oklahoma would advance to the Big 12 championship game. - Now, if OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor, but Texas loses its focus and founders against A&M, then OU and Tech would finish in a tie for first, and OU would hold the tiebreaker.
I haven't heard anyone suggest that an Aggie victory over the Longhorns is even possible. But, if it works out that way, as I say, Oklahoma would advance by virtue of its win over Tech. - What if OU doesn't beat OSU? Well, then things will depend on what happens with Texas and Texas Tech.
If UT wins but Tech loses, Texas wins the Big 12 South title outright. If Texas Tech wins, it won't matter what Texas does — Tech will win the Big 12 South.
And, if all three teams lose, we'll have a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South (adding OSU to the mix). If that happens, all I can say for certain is that no one from the Big 12 South will play for the national title. - Let's assume that Texas beats A&M and OU beats OSU but Tech can't rebound from losing the game to the Sooners and goes on to lose in a huge upset to Baylor.
In that scenario, OU would share the title with Texas, and Texas would win the berth in the Big 12 championship game from the South division because the Longhorns beat the Sooners in Dallas last month.
But Tech, as I say, is likely to beat Baylor. The game is in Lubbock, and Baylor hasn't won a road game all season. In fact, Baylor has won only two of its last eight games, and those two wins came against 2-9 Iowa State and 4-7 Texas A&M.
In other years, beating A&M would be a landmark victory for the Baylor program — but, in so many ways, 2008 has been unlike "other years."
OU should get into it by beating Oklahoma State. And, if OU stumbles in Stillwater, I expect Tech to earn the bid to the conference championship game by beating Baylor.
Texas can win a two-way tie with OU, but it isn't likely to have the highest BCS ranking in the event of a three-way tie. And such a two-way tie with OU can only happen if Tech loses to Baylor.
How long has it been since Baylor beat Texas Tech? Well, the two teams were members of the old Southwest Conference before forming the Big 12 with the members of the old Big Eight along with Texas and Texas A&M in the 1990s. Baylor has never beaten Tech since they've been members of the Big 12.
The last victory Baylor enjoyed over Tech came when they were still in the SWC. It was on Sept. 25, 1993 — by the score of 28-26.
Bill Clinton had been president for less than a year.
Baylor hasn't beaten Texas Tech in Lubbock since 1990.
In just the last four games played between the two teams in Lubbock, Texas Tech has won by an average margin of about five touchdowns, 46.75-12.25.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Stormin' Norman
Norman, Okla., will be in the college football spotlight Saturday night when the Oklahoma Sooners host the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Clearly, the still unbeaten Red Raiders will be in the driver's seat in the Big 12 South if they win the game. The Sooners will have a chance to claim a share of the divisional title if they win — but only if they can beat Oklahoma State next week.
However, the battle for the Heisman Trophy may well be decided on the field in Norman. Texas Tech is led by quarterback Graham Harrell, ranked #1 in passing yardage per game. Oklahoma is led by quarterback Sam Bradford, ranked #3 in passing yardage per game.
Gil LeBreton writes, in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, that the key is Oklahoma's defense.
Not too long ago, he writes, "[w]ith its big-play defense and its Heisman candidate quarterback, Oklahoma looked like a national championship contender," but LeBreton contends that OU's defense changed when linebacker Ryan Reynolds suffered a season-ending injury against Texas.
On the eve of the Oklahoma-Texas Tech showdown, Oklahoma ranks 93rd in passing defense. Texas Tech ranks 98th in passing defense.
And LeBreton wonders, perhaps not facetiously, "[h]as there ever been a Big 12 [football] game in which both teams scored in the 80s?"
Last year's Heisman winner, Florida junior Tim Tebow, is often mentioned as a prospect to win this year's award, but I don't think he'll pull an Archie Griffin and win the award for the second straight year. He has the misfortune of being compared against what he accomplished in 2007 — and his numbers aren't close to what he put up last year.
The only way I see Tebow really getting into serious Heisman conversation at this stage is if something unexpected happens tomorrow night (i.e., OU and Tech fight through an atypically low-scoring, defensive football battle with a final score along the lines of 6-3) — and if Tebow has performances of legendary proportions against non-conference rival Florida State on Nov. 29 and then against top-ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6.
The other name that is often mentioned — although not as much recently &mdash is Texas quarterback Colt McCoy. But he has gradually fallen off the Heisman radar since Texas lost to Texas Tech, and the only way he'll return to prominence is if Harrell, Bradford and Tebow all falter.
Gary Shelton of the St. Petersburg Times counsels his readers not to hate the Heisman "because ... Tebow is probably going to lose it" or "because ... Bradford is probably going to win it" (in anticipation of a "change" brought about in Saturday's game).
"Do not hate the Heisman because it is overhyped or because it is statistic-driven or because it is strangely more popular than the Nobel Peace Prize," Shelton writes. "Do not hate it because it is reserved mainly for quarterbacks or running backs from the major conferences. Do not hate it because it rarely achieves its goal of deciding the best player in America. Do not hate it because, somehow, Andre Ware won it."
Here is the reason, Shelton says, to hate the Heisman: "Every year, the voters are forced to decide the winner too darned early."
Shelton thinks the Heisman should be awarded after all the games have been played in January.
And there is a certain logic to his argument that "[t]he movie is still going on, and already, these guys want to toss Academy Awards at the screen."
But, in 2008 at least, I think the curtain is about to come down. And the final scene will be staged in Norman, Oklahoma.
Clearly, the still unbeaten Red Raiders will be in the driver's seat in the Big 12 South if they win the game. The Sooners will have a chance to claim a share of the divisional title if they win — but only if they can beat Oklahoma State next week.However, the battle for the Heisman Trophy may well be decided on the field in Norman. Texas Tech is led by quarterback Graham Harrell, ranked #1 in passing yardage per game. Oklahoma is led by quarterback Sam Bradford, ranked #3 in passing yardage per game.
Gil LeBreton writes, in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, that the key is Oklahoma's defense.
Not too long ago, he writes, "[w]ith its big-play defense and its Heisman candidate quarterback, Oklahoma looked like a national championship contender," but LeBreton contends that OU's defense changed when linebacker Ryan Reynolds suffered a season-ending injury against Texas.
On the eve of the Oklahoma-Texas Tech showdown, Oklahoma ranks 93rd in passing defense. Texas Tech ranks 98th in passing defense.
And LeBreton wonders, perhaps not facetiously, "[h]as there ever been a Big 12 [football] game in which both teams scored in the 80s?"
Last year's Heisman winner, Florida junior Tim Tebow, is often mentioned as a prospect to win this year's award, but I don't think he'll pull an Archie Griffin and win the award for the second straight year. He has the misfortune of being compared against what he accomplished in 2007 — and his numbers aren't close to what he put up last year.
The only way I see Tebow really getting into serious Heisman conversation at this stage is if something unexpected happens tomorrow night (i.e., OU and Tech fight through an atypically low-scoring, defensive football battle with a final score along the lines of 6-3) — and if Tebow has performances of legendary proportions against non-conference rival Florida State on Nov. 29 and then against top-ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6.
The other name that is often mentioned — although not as much recently &mdash is Texas quarterback Colt McCoy. But he has gradually fallen off the Heisman radar since Texas lost to Texas Tech, and the only way he'll return to prominence is if Harrell, Bradford and Tebow all falter.
Gary Shelton of the St. Petersburg Times counsels his readers not to hate the Heisman "because ... Tebow is probably going to lose it" or "because ... Bradford is probably going to win it" (in anticipation of a "change" brought about in Saturday's game).
"Do not hate the Heisman because it is overhyped or because it is statistic-driven or because it is strangely more popular than the Nobel Peace Prize," Shelton writes. "Do not hate it because it is reserved mainly for quarterbacks or running backs from the major conferences. Do not hate it because it rarely achieves its goal of deciding the best player in America. Do not hate it because, somehow, Andre Ware won it."
Here is the reason, Shelton says, to hate the Heisman: "Every year, the voters are forced to decide the winner too darned early."
Shelton thinks the Heisman should be awarded after all the games have been played in January.
And there is a certain logic to his argument that "[t]he movie is still going on, and already, these guys want to toss Academy Awards at the screen."
But, in 2008 at least, I think the curtain is about to come down. And the final scene will be staged in Norman, Oklahoma.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Time to Separate Contenders from Pretenders
If you're a college football fan, you know that the next couple of weeks will be crucial in deciding the teams that play for the BCS national championship in Miami on Jan. 8, 2009.
Conference championships will be played on December 6, and, for some of the conferences, one or both of the teams that will play for the leagues' titles will be decided in the next couple of weeks.
Notably, the Southeastern Conference championship game pairing is already known. The SEC will match top-ranked Alabama against Florida, which is third in every poll except the BCS standings, where Texas (fourth in all the other polls) is ranked third and Florida is ranked fourth.
Alabama (11-0) is idle this weekend but will face in-state rival Auburn (5-6) on Nov. 29. Florida, meanwhile, is 9-1 overall and still has to play its in-state rival, Florida State, on Nov. 29.
Florida also has to play host to The Citadel this weekend. I don't think anyone is seriously entertaining the notion that The Citadel (4-7) has a chance of upsetting the Gators — although college football fans probably don't regard the notion as quite as outlandish today as they almost certainly did last week, before 18th-ranked LSU had to overcome a 31-10 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Troy in Baton Rouge, La.
The assumption is that both the Tide and the Gators will win the rest of their regular-season games, and the winner of their showdown for the SEC title will go on to play in the national championship game.
Clearly, if both Alabama and Florida run the table, that makes the SEC championship game the most playoff-like game in the NCAA's postseason — with the winner advancing to the "big one."
For that not to be the case, something extraordinary has to happen to one or both teams in the next couple of weeks.
It probably isn't likely that Auburn will upset Alabama — but Florida State (7-3) has a decent team this year (in spite of Saturday's loss to Boston College) and is probably capable of giving Florida a competitive game.
But I think Florida State needs to beat 22nd-ranked Maryland this weekend to get some traction for the game against Florida.
Which leads me to the most compelling games that are scheduled to be nationally televised this Saturday:
Conference championships will be played on December 6, and, for some of the conferences, one or both of the teams that will play for the leagues' titles will be decided in the next couple of weeks.Notably, the Southeastern Conference championship game pairing is already known. The SEC will match top-ranked Alabama against Florida, which is third in every poll except the BCS standings, where Texas (fourth in all the other polls) is ranked third and Florida is ranked fourth.
Alabama (11-0) is idle this weekend but will face in-state rival Auburn (5-6) on Nov. 29. Florida, meanwhile, is 9-1 overall and still has to play its in-state rival, Florida State, on Nov. 29.
Florida also has to play host to The Citadel this weekend. I don't think anyone is seriously entertaining the notion that The Citadel (4-7) has a chance of upsetting the Gators — although college football fans probably don't regard the notion as quite as outlandish today as they almost certainly did last week, before 18th-ranked LSU had to overcome a 31-10 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Troy in Baton Rouge, La.
The assumption is that both the Tide and the Gators will win the rest of their regular-season games, and the winner of their showdown for the SEC title will go on to play in the national championship game.
Clearly, if both Alabama and Florida run the table, that makes the SEC championship game the most playoff-like game in the NCAA's postseason — with the winner advancing to the "big one."
For that not to be the case, something extraordinary has to happen to one or both teams in the next couple of weeks.
It probably isn't likely that Auburn will upset Alabama — but Florida State (7-3) has a decent team this year (in spite of Saturday's loss to Boston College) and is probably capable of giving Florida a competitive game.
But I think Florida State needs to beat 22nd-ranked Maryland this weekend to get some traction for the game against Florida.
Which leads me to the most compelling games that are scheduled to be nationally televised this Saturday:
- #2 Texas Tech (10-0) at #5 Oklahoma (9-1) — Is there any doubt that this is the weekend's marquee match-up?
The experts agree that, if Tech wins, the Red Raiders will play for a spot in the national championship game when they play for the Big 12 title on Dec. 6.
The assumption is that, after beating Texas, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, the Red Raiders will cruise past 4-7 Baylor the following week — although, frankly, the Baylor game will mean nothing in the race for the Big 12 South title if Tech comes into the game 11-0.
It's hard to refute that logic.
The Bears' only role would be to spoil the Raiders' run for the national title, but they don't appear to have the horses for the task.
On the other hand, if Oklahoma beats Tech and then beats Oklahoma State on Nov. 29, creating a three-way tie with Texas and Texas Tech for the Big 12 South title, the tie will be broken by which team has the highest ranking in the BCS standings.
A two-way tie would be broken based on the outcome of the head-to-head matchup. But a three-way tie complicates things considerably. With everything that will be riding on the resolution of that matter, things clearly could get messy.
The game should be high scoring. Tech is ranked second in total offense, OU is ranked fourth. The nation's #1 and #5 passers — Tech's Graham Harrell and OU's Sam Bradford — will be playing. And neither team has a defensive unit that ranks in the Top 50 in total defense.
However, if OU struggles with its passing game, the Sooners have the nation's 47th-ranked rusher, DeMarco Murray, to provide a change of pace as well as the very vocal support of the home crowd.
The Red Raiders are mostly dependent on their passing game, with players like Michael Crabtree (the hero of the Texas game), Detron Lewis and Eric Morris catching Harrell's passes. But the Sooners are rated 93rd in pass defense.
There should be a lot of drama in Norman, Okla., Saturday night. You can see it on ABC at 7 p.m. (Central). - Florida State (7-3) at #22 Maryland (7-3) — If this game wasn't being played at the same time as Tech and OU, I would find it very compelling. And if the OU-Tech game gets out of hand, it's a good backup option.
If Florida State doesn't win this game, I fail to see how they'll be able to snap a two-game losing skid against the third-ranked team in the country the following week.
Florida State has zero chance of playing for the national title. But the Seminoles can clinch at least a share of the ACC Atlantic title by beating the Terps — and they can get some valuable momentum for the game against Florida.
So the Seminoles have plenty of motivation. But recent history isn't on their side. In the last four meetings, the team that lost the previous year was the winner — and Florida State beat Maryland last year, 24-16, so the pattern suggests it's Maryland's turn to win in 2008.
Nevertheless, statistics offer some hope for the Seminoles. Florida State is fifth in total defense while Maryland is tied for 71st in total offense. Florida State is 43rd in total offense; Maryland is 64th in total defense.
The game will be televised on ESPN at 6:45 p.m. (Central). - #15 Michigan State (9-2) at #8 Penn State (10-1) — After their one-point loss to Iowa, the Nittany Lions were said to be out of the national title picture.
The truth was, before the Iowa game, most observers were saying the Nittany Lions wouldn't be in the national championship game even if they ran the table.
But Penn State is alive and well in the race for the Rose Bowl.
However, so is Michigan State.
But Michigan State's hopes will depend upon an unlikely upset of Ohio State by woeful Michigan (3-8) earlier in the day (ABC will carry the Ohio State-Michigan game at 11 a.m. Central time),
By the time Michigan State and Penn State kick off at 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC, the outcome of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be known.
Michigan State lost to Ohio State in October, but Penn State did not. The outcome of the Ohio State-Michigan game won't have any meaning for Penn State, but the Nittany Lions will get more competition from the Spartans if the Wolverines win their game.
If nothing else, Penn State, which is ranked fourth in total defense, will have its hands full with Javon Ringer, who is second in the nation in rushing yardage. But Penn State is ranked 18th in total offense, while Michigan State is ranked 66th. - #14 Brigham Young (10-1) at #7 Utah (11-0) — Utah beat San Diego State like the proverbial red-headed stepchild, 63-14, on Saturday, but SDSU is the bottom of the barrel in the Mountain West Conference. The level of competition will be decidedly higher this weekend.
And the odds seem to be against Utah playing for the national championship even if the Utes cap an undefeated season with a win over Brigham Young.
BYU lost to TCU in mid-October, and both teams could share the conference championship with Utah if BYU beats Utah and 16th-ranked TCU beats Air Force this weekend. Air Force is out of the race for the conference title, but it was competitive against both BYU and Utah earlier in the year. And the Falcons could keep the Horned Frogs from possibly sharing the conference title with a win in Fort Worth, Texas.
The TCU-Air Force game is scheduled to be televised by Versus at 2:30 p.m. (Central).
If Utah beats BYU, what happens in Fort Worth won't matter — and Utah will retain a chance — albeit a slim one — of sneaking into the national championship game.
But BYU won't be an easy mark. Seven of the last eight games between the schools have been decided by a single score, and recent history suggests that teams win in this series in streaks.
Brigham Young has won the last two meetings. The Cougars beat the Utes last year, 17-10. In 2006, the Cougars won an even closer game, 33-31.
The Utes won in 2005, 41-34. In the most lopsided outcome in recent years, Utah beat BYU in 2004, 52-21. In 2003, Utah won, 3-0. In 2002, Utah took a 13-6 decision.
In 2001, BYU won, 24-21. The Cougars won in 2000, 34-27.
Brigham Young also has the nation's #4 quarterback, Max Hall, and the nation's leading receiver, Austin Collie, which has propelled the Cougars to #17 in total offense. But Utah ranks 11th in total defense.
Utah isn't too shabby in total offense, either — the Utes are 35th in the country. And BYU ranks 54th in total defense.
The game will be televised on The Mtn. at 5 p.m. (Central). - Yale (6-3) at Harvard (8-1) — Ordinarily, I wouldn't even consider this game, since it's being played at the same time as Ohio State and Michigan. But Michigan has had a terrible season and isn't likely to give OSU much of a struggle.
But the Yale-Harvard game is a worthwhile option for traditionalists. It's a rivalry of long-standing, and it has some meaning this year. Harvard can win at least a share of the Ivy League championship with a win over Yale, but it needs Brown to lose to Columbia in order to win the championship outright.
Brown is likely to beat Columbia — and, because Brown beat Harvard by two points earlier in the season, the Bears hold the tiebreaker. But Brown will be playing Columbia at the same time as Harvard is playing Yale, so nothing will be decided at that point.
Known as "The Game," the Harvard-Yale series dates to 1875. It's the oldest football rivalry, although the earliest games of the series came at a time when American football was evolving from rugby and the scores were decidedly un-football-like — on Nov. 13, 1875, Harvard won the first game between the two schools, 4-0.
Saturday's game will be the 125th meeting. Yale leads the historical series, 65-51-8, but Harvard has won six of the last seven games.
You can see the game on Versus at 11 a.m. (Central).
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Who Will Be Playing in Miami?
Saturday’s one-point loss to Iowa has doomed Penn State’s hopes for a national title, says Sam Ross Jr. in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Practically the same thing happened to Penn State nine years ago, he writes. Then ranked second in the nation, the Nittany Lions lost to Minnesota by the same 24-23 score.
"The 1999 Penn State team couldn't recover," Ross says, "losing back-to-back games to Michigan and Michigan State."
Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated writes that Penn State’s loss was a good thing for the Big Ten, in the aftermath of a couple of poor performances by Ohio State in the last two national championship games.
"The majority of the country did not want to see Penn State in the BCS title game," Mandel writes. Saturday’s loss, he says, means "the issue is moot."
Gennaro Filice writes, in his FanNation blog, that Penn State’s "national title hopes are officially cooked."
Filice admits that Penn State can still win the Big Ten title. And he concedes that it’s possible that no team from a BCS conference will finish the season unbeaten.
However, "due to the Big Ten's perceived inferiority this season, Penn State's lone blemish has far more significance than a single notch in the loss column," he writes.
The loss to Iowa, Filice says, is a "knockout blow."
Is it?
Well, a lot of things can happen in college football.
A single loss by a single point doesn’t have to destroy a team’s chances of playing for the national title — although it’s usually best if it happens early in the season, when the team has a chance to make its case in several games, rather than late in the season, when there aren’t many opportunities left to repair the team’s image.
Lord knows, I'm no fan of the BCS. But it's the system that's in use and, at this stage, I think the die may be cast — that there may be only one berth in the national title game that Penn State has a theoretical — albeit remote — chance of grabbing.
If that’s the case, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Penn State to make up that much ground in less than a month.
Anyway,
I doubt that Penn State is on its way to Miami in January — but Pasadena isn't bad as alternate destinations go.
Practically the same thing happened to Penn State nine years ago, he writes. Then ranked second in the nation, the Nittany Lions lost to Minnesota by the same 24-23 score.
"The 1999 Penn State team couldn't recover," Ross says, "losing back-to-back games to Michigan and Michigan State."
Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated writes that Penn State’s loss was a good thing for the Big Ten, in the aftermath of a couple of poor performances by Ohio State in the last two national championship games.
"The majority of the country did not want to see Penn State in the BCS title game," Mandel writes. Saturday’s loss, he says, means "the issue is moot."
Gennaro Filice writes, in his FanNation blog, that Penn State’s "national title hopes are officially cooked."
Filice admits that Penn State can still win the Big Ten title. And he concedes that it’s possible that no team from a BCS conference will finish the season unbeaten.
However, "due to the Big Ten's perceived inferiority this season, Penn State's lone blemish has far more significance than a single notch in the loss column," he writes.
The loss to Iowa, Filice says, is a "knockout blow."
Is it?
Well, a lot of things can happen in college football.
A single loss by a single point doesn’t have to destroy a team’s chances of playing for the national title — although it’s usually best if it happens early in the season, when the team has a chance to make its case in several games, rather than late in the season, when there aren’t many opportunities left to repair the team’s image.
Lord knows, I'm no fan of the BCS. But it's the system that's in use and, at this stage, I think the die may be cast — that there may be only one berth in the national title game that Penn State has a theoretical — albeit remote — chance of grabbing.
If that’s the case, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Penn State to make up that much ground in less than a month.
Anyway,
- I believe one of the slots in the national championship game will go to the winner of the SEC Championship clash between Alabama and Florida in Atlanta on Dec. 6.
The conference schedule hasn’t been played out yet, but both teams have clinched their division championships and will face off in December.
Of course, a lot of things could happen to remove the spotlight from this game. Alabama (10-0) still has to play its in-state rival, Auburn, on Nov. 29. The Tigers are only 5-5 this year, but rivalries are different from ordinary games.
Likewise, Florida (8-1) has to face its in-state rival, Florida State (7-2), the same day.
And, this Saturday, Florida has to play its final regular-season conference game against South Carolina (7-3).
But if Florida and Alabama can clear their last regular-season hurdles, I expect the winner of their game to play for the national championship in Miami in January. - Logic tells me that the other team in the national championship picture will be the team that finishes atop the Big 12 South.
Right now, that would figure to be 10-0 Texas Tech, which has a well-deserved week off next weekend after defeating previously unbeaten Texas last weekend and then following that with a win over once-beaten Oklahoma State on Saturday.
The Red Raiders can’t relax too much, however, because, after beating the Longhorns and Cowboys at home in Lubbock, they have to travel to Norman, Okla., a week from Saturday to face Oklahoma.
Some more bad news for Tech. Oklahoma also has the week off to prepare for the showdown.
And what a showdown it should be!
Texas Tech has a richly deserved reputation for scoring, but the Sooners have done a pretty fair job of putting points on the board, too. Oklahoma has been held to its season-low of 35 points twice — and the Sooners have scored more than 50 points six times.
But the Sooners' defense has been prone to give up a lot of points at times.
If Tech can beat OU, the Red Raiders should finish the regular season unbeaten — their final opponent is 3-7 Baylor on Nov. 29.
But OU could cause problems. If the Sooners win, it’s possible that three teams — OU, Texas and Texas Tech — will finish the season tied atop the Big 12 South.
For that to happen, Oklahoma would have to follow the win over Tech with a win at Oklahoma State on Nov. 29 — and the 8-2 Cowboys have been no pushovers this season. They should be rested and ready — all they have to do between now and the 29th is dispose of 5-5 Colorado.
But, if it does happen, Mandel writes, the tiebreaker would be determined by which team has the highest BCS ranking.
"The voters would decide who gets to play for the Big 12 championship," Mandel writes. "How the heck are they supposed to do that? Would they elevate the Sooners over a Texas team they lost to? Would non-conference wins be part of the decision?"
If OSU knocks off OU, that would open the door for Tech and Texas to share the division title. If that happened, Tech would win the spot in the conference championship game, based on their head-to-head victory over the Longhorns.
But, because they lost recently to OU, the Red Raiders would probably be out of the national title picture by that point. And, in an ironic twist, the Longhorns might be back in it.
Clearly, it would be a whole lot easier on everyone if Tech just beats Oklahoma and goes on to play in the Big 12 championship game, probably against Missouri.
Which raises another point. What happens if the Big 12 South champ stumbles in the conference championship game against Missouri?
Mathematically, it’s conceivable that Missouri won’t emerge as the Big 12 North champion. The Tigers still have to face Kansas on Nov. 29. The Jayhawks trail the Tigers by a game in the standings, but they could overcome that by winning their head-to-head matchup.
But, for Kansas to sneak in past Missouri, the Jayhawks would probably have to win their other remaining game, which is against Texas — and that doesn’t appear to be too likely for 6-4 KU.
The other contender in the Big 12 North is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers could leapfrog the Tigers (who won their head-to-head match in early October) if they sweep Kansas State and Colorado.
But that would require Missouri to lose to not only Kansas but also 2-8 Iowa State beforehand.
So it’s unlikely but possible that Missouri won’t represent the Big 12 North in the conference title game.
Still, you never know what’s going to happen in the Big 12 Championship game.
Well, Jimmy Burch of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram seems to know what's going to happen.
"If Tech continues to match the poise and precision it showed Saturday while dismantling No. 8 Oklahoma State 56-20 the Red Raiders will get [to the BCS title game]," he writes. "And deserve it." - If the unexpected happens, and a legitimate national championship contender doesn’t emerge from the Big 12, it seems to me that the next most likely prospect for the slot against either Alabama or Florida would be Southern California.
USC (8-1) has to face a couple of teams that are struggling to win enough games to qualify for a bowl bid — 5-5 Stanford and 5-4 Notre Dame — before wrapping up the regular season against crosstown rival UCLA (3-6).
To me, it looks like a longshot for USC to get into the national title game, but if the Trojans sweep those last three games, they’ll have to wait and see what happens in the Big 12, like everyone else. USC plays in a conference that doesn’t determine its championship in a postseason title game. - In the extremely unlikely event that Tech, Texas and Oklahoma all drop out of the running and USC loses to one of the apparent creampuffs remaining on its schedule, the latest BCS standings suggest that the next team in line would be 10-0 Utah.
Utah has two regular-season games left — San Diego State (1-9) this weekend, and 9-1 Brigham Young the next. If BYU beats Utah, the Utes are out of the running.
It’s hard for me to imagine the Utes playing Alabama or Florida for the national championship. If circumstances start to eliminate the teams at the head of the list, my guess is that the pollsters would elevate Penn State — and put the Nittany Lions in the championship game ahead of Utah.
I doubt that Penn State is on its way to Miami in January — but Pasadena isn't bad as alternate destinations go.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Rah Rah Rah
If you like to watch sports — in person or on television, college or pro — you must have noticed the cheerleaders who are present at almost every game in support of almost every team.Some people watch sports events solely for those moments when they can see the cheerleaders. Indeed, if you go to a game these days, you can see people in the stands whose binoculars remain locked on the sidelines from start to finish.
You can thank University of Minnesota student Johnny Campbell, who led the crowd in the first known organized cheer 110 years ago — on Nov. 2, 1898.Cheerleading has come a long way since 1898.
In fact, if you were to be transported back to those late 19th century days, you might not recognize the cheerleaders. Squads used to be all male, so any thrill you get from seeing the beautiful girls in their skimpy costumes wouldn't be part of the equation at the turn of the century.
As a matter of fact, the current occupant of the Oval Office was a cheerleader in his college days.
And those skimpy costumes you see today's cheerleaders wearing were not really introduced until relatively recently — in the last 40 years or so.
It's true, cheerleading has changed in 110 years — presumably, for the better.
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