The NFL Playoffs

Back in August, I predicted how the NFL playoff field would look at the end of the regular season.

That day has come, and the results of the season, compared to my predictions, are decidedly mixed.

My predictions did pretty well in the AFC, not so well in the NFC.

In the AFC, I predicted New England would repeat as Eastern Division champion (that was a month before Tom Brady was injured for the season — nevertheless, the Patriots managed to win a share of the division title, but not the tiebreaker that would have given them their tickets to the postseason).

But I correctly predicted that Pittsburgh and San Diego would win their divisions. And I also predicted that Miami would be in the playoffs — but as a wild card team, not as the AFC East champs.

And I correctly predicted the Indianapolis Colts would be in the playoffs — but I said they would win their division. Instead, Indy is in the postseason dance as a wild card team.

On the downside, I picked the hapless Bengals to earn a wild card bid. Cincinnati didn't come close to making it to the postseason, finishing the schedule with a 4-11-1 record.

Instead of Cincinnati and New England, the AFC playoff field includes Tennessee and Baltimore.

(Today, instead of talking about the playoffs, New England's followers seem to be more interested in whether or not Brady proposed to his girlfriend during the holidays.)

I was way off on my predictions for the NFC.

All four of the teams I predicted to win their divisions failed to make the playoffs — Dallas, Chicago, Seattle and New Orleans.

Instead, the four division winners are the New York Giants, Minnesota, Carolina and Arizona.

In my own defense, I did pick the Giants and Vikings to make the playoffs — as the wild card teams, not as the division winners they eventually turned out to be.

But the actual wild card teams, Philadelphia and Atlanta, were not mentioned in my predictions.

I know that the teams I predicted to advance to the Super Bowl — New England and Chicago — won't be there.

Who will be?

The Greatest Game Ever Played

Today is an important anniversary in the history of the National Football League.

Fifty years ago today, the Baltimore Colts and the New York Giants played for the NFL championship. At the end of the fourth quarter, the score was tied.

And, for the first time, a professional football game went into overtime.

I've seen the highlights from the game before, but they were always in the original black-and-white — the way TV viewers saw it on Dec. 28, 1958.

But, to mark the 50th anniversary, ESPN Films and NFL Films created a special colorized presentation of the game film. For the first time, TV viewers could see the Colts and Giants in the uniform colors that the fans at their games saw in 1958.

It also includes commentary from several people who participated in the game — although some of the people who might have had the most interesting insights (Johnny Unitas, Vince Lombardi, Tom Landry, Weeb Ewbank) are no longer around.

The film was first broadcast a couple of weeks ago.

Oddly, it does not appear to have been scheduled for broadcast today — on the actual anniversary.

However, you can see it on New Year's Day on ESPN Classic from 6-8 p.m. (Central).

Home Field in Playoffs May Be On Line Today

On this Sunday before Christmas, the NFL's playoff picture is coming into focus, although there are still some berths to be assigned.

In the AFC, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have clinched spots in the playoffs so three others are still undecided. In the NFC, the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals are definitely in, leaving four spots to be determined.

However, there are two games being played today that should go a long way toward determining who gets home-field advantage through the playoffs — Pittsburgh (11-3) at Tennessee (12-2) in the AFC, and Carolina (11-3) at the New York Giants (11-3) in the NFC.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

It's supposed to be windy in Nashville today, and neither quarterback has been leading the league so I don't expect either team to throw the ball a lot.

The QBs have nearly identical ratings. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger has an 80.2. Tennessee's Kerry Collins has a 78.7. Roethlisberger averages about 30 yards passing more than Collins, and he has four more TD passes as well as a slight edge in pass completion percentage.

But Roethlisberger can be turnover-prone — he has thrown nearly twice as many interceptions as Collins, and he's lost five fumbles.

Hines Ward is Pittsburgh's leading receiver, and he can reach 1,000 in receiving yards if he averages 68 yards per game in the final two contests. Ward also has more receiving TDs than anyone else playing in the game — his nearest competitors are Tennessee's Justin Gage, who has five, and teammate Santonio Holmes, who has four.

Tennessee running back Chris Johnson is second in the league in rushing yards with 1,159, more than 500 yards ahead of Pittsburgh's leading rusher, Willie Parker, who has missed some playing time with a knee injury. Johnson has eight rushing TDs; his teammate, LenDale White, has pitched in 700 yards and 14 TDs. For Pittsburgh, Mewelde Moore has tried to pick up the slack during Parker's absences, contributing 537 yards and four TDs.

Personally, I'm inclined to think defense will dominate the game.

On defense, several of the AFC's sack leaders will be featured in the game. Pittsburgh linebacker James Harrison is second in the AFC in sacks with 15, and he needs only one more to break Mike Merriweather's 24-year-old team record for a season. Another Steeler linebacker, LaMarr Woodley, is tied for third in the AFC with 11.5.

Tennessee defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is seventh in sacks with 8.5, and his teammate, defensive end Jacob Ford, is 11th with six — half a sack ahead of Pittsburgh defensive end Aaron Smith. And Smith is only half a sack ahead of teammate Lawrence Timmons.

Pittsburgh linebacker James Farrior is tied for fourth in the league in tackles with 112. Harrison is the only other defensive player in the top 20 in that category — he's 19th in the league with 85 tackles.

Both teams need to be wary of the opposing secondary, but Tennessee seems to have more defenders that need to be avoided.

Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu shared the league lead in interceptions with Baltimore's Ed Reed when the weekend began, but Reed picked off two passes against Dallas last night. So Polamalu is now second in the AFC with seven.

Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan and safety Michael Griffin have five interceptions apiece, and safety Chris Hope has four.

Pittsburgh kicker Jeff Reed has made nearly 90% of his field goal attempts, and Tennessee kicker Rob Bironas has been one of the league's best all season, making 90.3% of his field goal attempts and connecting on every PAT. But the wind in Nashville today could cause problems for both.

About an hour before the noon (Central) kickoff in Nashville, the temperature is 29° (with a wind chill of 19°), which is nearly today's forecast high of 30°. A west-northwest wind of 15 mph is expected, with gusts possibly reaching 25 mph. But it's expected to be sunny — no precipitation in the forecast.

My Prediction: Tennessee 20, Pittsburgh 17.

Carolina at New York Giants

The Giants rate a slight edge in the QB category.

New York's Eli Manning is ninth in the NFC in QB rating with 86.4. Carolina's Jake Delhomme is 11th, with 82.0. The two are separated by less than 100 yards in passing yardage (with Manning holding the lead), Manning is sixth in the league in passing TDs with 20 (Delhomme has 14) and they're close in completion percentage (Manning has completed 60.3%, Delhomme has completed 58.9%).

As far as turnovers are concerned, Delhomme has thrown more interceptions (12) than Manning (10), and they're about even in fumbles lost (Delhomme has lost three, Manning has lost two).

But the Panthers have the top receiving targets. Carolina's Steve Smith has made 70 receptions for 1,240 yards and six TDs. His teammate, Muhsin Muhammad, has 54 catches for 764 yards and four TDs — but he's also dropped seven passes this season.

The Giants are also led in receiving by a receiver named Steve Smith, but, on 52 catches, he has less than half the yardage (530) his Carolina counterpart has and has managed only one touchdown. Amani Toomer has a few more yards than Smith (537) and four times as many TDs on 44 receptions.

Carolina's DeAngelo Williams is fourth in the NFC in rushing with 1,229 yards. The Giants' Brandon Jacobs recently crossed the 1,000-yard barrier and stands at 1,002, Williams' teammate, Jonathan Stewart, has 751 yards. Jacbos' teammate, Derrick Ward, has 733.

Williams and Stewart have combined for 23 rushing TDs so far this season. For the Giants, Jacobs has scored 12 touchdowns but Ward has only two.

On defense, the Giants have the edge in sacks, and the Panthers have a decisive advantage in tackles. Carolina' Julius Peppers and New York's Justin Tuck are in a battle for fourth in the NFC in sacks. Peppers has 12.5, Tuck has 12.0. The Giants' third-year defensive end, Mathias Kiwanuka, has 8.5 sacks, which matches his total for his first two years in the league, and defensive tackle Fred Robbins has 5.5.

Peppers is tied for second in the league in forced fumbles with five. Tuck has three. Five other players, from both teams, have two each.

Carolina linebacker Jon Beason leads the NFC in tackles with 122, and fellow linebacker Thomas Davis is tied for 11th with 97. None of the Giants are in the top 20 in tackles.

Neither secondary has been overly impressive against the pass. Beason leads Carolina with three interceptions, and cornerbacks Aaron Ross and Corey Webster lead the Giants, with three each.

New York kicker Jon Carney has made 29 of 31 field goal attempts (93.5%) as well as all 35 of his PATs. Carolina's John Kasay has been even more accurate, hitting on 24 of 25 field goal attempts (96%) and all 39 of his PATs.

But the kicking game could be affected by a wicked wind tonight.

East Rutherford, N.J., is expected to have snow until about mid-afternoon today, but the Giants and Panthers won't kick off their game until after sunset — and, by that time, it's supposed to be partly cloudy. During the daylight hours, the temperature is supposed to reach 36°, but the night-time low is expected to be in the teens.

Whether the temperature is actually that low during the game, it will probably feel that cold — if not colder. Forecasters say it will be breezy tonight, 22-24 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph.

My Prediction: Carolina 13, New York 10.

The First May Be Best on Saturday

The 2008-09 bowl season begins on Saturday with four bowl games — the EagleBank Bowl at 10 a.m. (Central) on ESPN; the New Mexico Bowl at 1:30 p.m. (Central) also on ESPN; the St. Petersburg Bowl at 3:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2; and the Las Vegas Bowl at 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN.

There are many more bowl games to be played, of course, and there will be a college football game played every day between now and Jan. 3 (with three more games, including the national championship game to be played between Jan. 5-8) with the exception of next Monday (in deference, I suppose, to Monday Night Football) and Christmas Day.

But the fact is that there won't be another day that has this many college football games scheduled to be played until New Year's Eve.

It's possible to see almost all of the games if you wish, since three of the four are on the same cable channel and the other is on a sister channel. But I think it's only fair for you to be warned that the first one — the EagleBank Bowl — will probably be the best one — although the last one, the Las Vegas Bowl, shows some promise.

EagleBank Bowl

One of the things to recommend a game featuring Wake Forest (7-5) and Navy (8-4) is that it is a rematch. Navy beat Wake Forest, 24-17, on Sept. 27 — but Wake Forest leads the all-time series with Navy, 6-3.

Neither team was particularly strong in its passing game — in fact, Navy's was about the worst in the country, averaging slightly more than 63 yards per game — but Navy had the best running game in the nation, averaging nearly 300 yards per contest. Running back Shun White had touchdown runs of 87 and 71 yards and averaged 8.7 yards per carry en route to a 1,021-yard season.

I haven't seen the numbers on this, but I would imagine that, by relying on its ground game, Navy controlled time of possession.

Although Wake Forest struggled on offense, the Demon Deacons have the statistical advantage on defense. Wake Forest was 17th in points allowed, 19th in total defense, 21st in run defense and 28th in passing defense. Cornerback Alphonso Smith was one of the nation's leaders in interceptions with six.

If Wake Forest's defense can stop Navy's running game, I think it could come down to a field goal — if so, there are few college kickers I'd rather have than the one on the Navy sideline, Matt Harmon, who tied for third in field goal accuracy this season (89.5%). For his career, Harmon has succeeded on 31 of 40 attempts, and his longest of the year was 49 yards against Ball State.

New Mexico Bowl

The matchup between Colorado State (6-6) and Fresno State (7-5) amounts to nothing more than a couple of average or slightly above average teams whose solitary bright spots seem to cancel each other out — i.e., CSU's passing game is the team's offensive strength while Fresno's pass defense is its defensive strength.

Colorado State was 24th in the nation in passing yards per game, led by QB Billy Farris, who threw for 2,677 yards and 17 touchdowns. He completed 61.7% of his passes and was sacked 20 times. His top targets were Dion Morton (who had 10 TD receptions) and Rashaun Greer (who accumulated more than 1,000 yards receiving).

As I mentioned, Fresno State wasn't bad against the pass. The Bulldogs ranked 50th in the nation. But their interception leader, defensive back Marvin Haynes, had only two picks all season.

For that matter, Fresno wasn't bad, just not inspiring, throwing the ball. QB Tom Brandstater threw for nearly 2,500 yards and completed nearly 60% of his passes. He might enjoy some success against CSU's pass defense, which was 84th in the nation.

Neither defense put up impressive numbers against the run, which might benefit Fresno State, since its running game was 35th in the nation. But Fresno's leading rusher barely cracked 700 yards for the season. Colorado State ranked 79th in rushing, but at least the Rams had a 1,000-yard rusher in running back Gartrell Johnson.

Both gave up about 30 points a game, and that's about how many points Fresno's offense averaged this season. Colorado State averaged about 24 points per game.

St. Petersburg Bowl

On offense, Memphis (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5) comes down to a battle between Memphis' 18th-ranked running game and South Florida's 39th-ranked passing attack.

When Memphis has the ball, it seems likely that RB Curtis Steele will be the focus of attention — he ran for 1,175 yards and seven TDs during the season. QB Arkelon Hall's name may be mentioned a few times as well, but perhaps not for passing. Hall carried the ball 73 times during the season and scored two rushing TDs.

Even so, Hall threw for more than 2,000 yards during the season, which leads me to believe he'll be throwing the ball from time to time.

When South Florida is on offense, QB Matt Grothe's aerial attack will be in the spotlight. Grothe also led the team in rushing yards, but the run game appears to have been pretty balanced, since RB Mike Ford led the team in rushing TDs. It was ranked 51st in the nation.

South Florida has a big edge in almost every defensive category — including run defense, which will be critical against Memphis. South Florida ranked ninth in run defense, holding opponents to an average of less than 100 yards on the ground.

But there may be some hope for Memphis' defense against the South Florida passing game. Memphis ranks 47th in the nation against the pass and thus may be able to counter South Florida's 39th-ranked passing game.

Las Vegas Bowl

The Las Vegas Bowl is the only game on Saturday that features a team that is ranked in the BCS rankings — Brigham Young. BYU is 10-2 and will face 7-5 Arizona.

The team records would suggest that BYU will win in a romp.

But remember, BYU plays in the Mountain West (with Utah and TCU, it's true, but also with San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV, who combined for an overall record of 15-33 and a conference record of 6-26 — BYU outscored these four teams, 148-50, but went 0-2 against TCU and Utah) while Arizona plays in the more competitive Pac-10 (with USC, Oregon, Oregon State and California — Arizona went 1-3 against them but was only outscored 118-114).

The team rankings in the various categories indicate a game that might be closer than you think.

On offense, BYU's Max Hall had the 12th-best QB rating in the nation and he completed nearly 70% of his passes for more than 3,600 yards. Wide receiver Austin Collie led the country in receiving yards, and he made 95 receptions, of which 15 were touchdowns.

BYU's passing game was seventh in the nation, but Arizona's was a respectable #40. QB Willie Tuitama was 24th in passing efficiency and logged more than 2,700 passing yards.

Arizona actually was ranked higher throwing the ball than running it, but running back Nicholas Grigsby amassed 1,066 yards rushing, gaining more than 100 yards on the ground five times.

Consequently, Arizona's running game was ranked higher than BYU's, although the Cougars' Harvey Unga ran for 1,061 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Both teams ranked in the top 20 in scoring. BYU was 19th (averaging 35.3 points per game) and Arizona was 16th (averaging 37.1 points per game).

Arizona plays in a conference that isn't noted for its defense, but the Wildcats have a statistical advantage, at least, over the Cougars in most defensive categories. The most significant edge happens to be the most important for a BYU foe — pass defense. Arizona was 14th in the nation in passing yards allowed, and cornerback Trevin Wade had four interceptions.

If the game comes down to field goals, neither team seems to have an advantage. Both Arizona's Jason Bondzio and BYU's Mitch Payne hit more than 80% of their attempts, and both have connected on attempts longer than 45 yards.

In fact, both of Payne's misses came in the same game — Oct. 3 against Utah State.

Slingin' Sammy Passes Away

When a quarterback like Slingin' Sammy Baugh dies, I guess it's only appropriate to say he "passed away."

Baugh, 94, played his college ball in Fort Worth, Texas, at Texas Christian University. In the NFL, he was a nine-time All-Pro quarterback for the Washington Redskins — although he was one of the greatest all-around players of all time, excelling as a quarterback, defensive back and punter.

"He just finally wore out," his son said.

Although he played in an era when the passing game was seldom used except in desperate situations, Baugh made it a potent part of Washington's offense. In his 16-year career, Baugh completed more than 56% of his passes for more than 21,000 yards and 203 TDs, leading Washington to five NFL East titles and two NFL championships.

His jersey number is the only one the Redskins have ever officially retired.

Baugh was the last surviving inductee from the Hall of Fame's charter class of 1963 — a class of 17 that included George Halas, Red Grange, Bronko Nagurski, Jim Thorpe and Curly Lambeau.

If you're able to watch Sunday's Philadelphia at Washington game, you should. I would be very surprised if the Redskins don't do something to honor Baugh's memory.

And deservedly so.

Sour Grapes

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"I do think it shows that either they love us or they hate us — Gator Nation."

Tim Tebow

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Please.

The Tampa Tribune is serving as a convenient soapbox for Tim Tebow to use to spout his conspiracy theories concerning why he was denied a second Heisman Trophy.

Seems to me it might have had something to do with the fact that Sam Bradford's numbers glittered more than Tebow's did in 2008. Last year, Tebow had the impressive season. This year, Bradford did.

Of course, I've been saying for a long time that the Heisman is awarded too darn early. Bradford and Tebow will meet in the national championship game nearly four weeks from now. Two other quarterbacks, both just as deserving of recognition — Colt McCoy of Texas and Graham Harrell of Texas Tech — have bowl games to play in January as well.

And Harrell, who wasn't even invited to the Heisman ceremony although he had more passing yardage than any of the athletes who were summoned to New York, will face the only team that has beaten Tebow's Gators this season — Ole Miss.

Seems to me the prudent thing to do would be to wait until after the postseason games have been played. At least, with the Heisman winner still undetermined, players like McCoy and Harrell would have something to play for besides "school pride."

If the Yale Club would wait until mid-January to vote on the Heisman, the results of the bowl games could be considered — and the voters could be spared the scenario that has been repeated so often in recent years — in which a runnerup in the Heisman vote embarrasses the winner in a nationally televised postseason showdown.

Like when Oklahoma and Josh Heupel beat Florida State and Chris Weinke for the national crown in 2000.

Or when Miami's Ken Dorsey beat Nebraska's Eric Crouch for the 2001 national championship.

Or when Texas' Vince Young scored the national championship-winning TD against Reggie Bush's USC team in January 2006.

Maybe losing the Heisman serves as motivation for the runnerup.

And sometimes, I guess, the runnerup finds other sources for inspiration.

When asked why this alleged bias against Florida exists, he replied, "I think it probably started with (Steve) Spurrier's swagger, to tell you the truth. How he handled situations. He either drew people in or made people not like the Gators and The Swamp."

Well, Spurrier is a convenient scapegoat. He left Florida in 2001. He is back in the SEC — but as the coach of South Carolina.

Tebow's response reminds me of the Aesop's fable, "The Fox and the Grapes." Been awhile since you read Aesop? Well, basically, what it comes down to is, this fox is strolling along and he sees some grapes hanging from a tree. The fox is hungry so he tries to get the grapes, but they're hanging too high.

After repeated failures to get the grapes, the fox gives up and says, "The grapes are probably sour, anyway."

The moral of the story is, "It is easy to despise what you cannot get."

The Heisman Snub

Maybe I missed something.

But why wasn't Texas Tech's Graham Harrell invited to attend the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York this weekend?

Three quarterbacks were invited — Florida's Tim Tebow, who won the Heisman last year; Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, who seems likely to win it this year, and Texas' Colt McCoy.

Statistically, it shouldn't even be an issue. Harrell had more passing yardage than any of the other three quarterbacks who will be in New York Saturday night.

He was second in the nation in passing yardage, as a matter of fact — behind Houston's quarterback (who plays in the defensively challenged Conference USA — to give you an idea of just how challenged it is, UH's QB passed for five TDs and nearly 500 yards in the season finale against Rice, and the Cougars still lost the game by two touchdowns).

For that matter, in the Big 12, Missouri's Chase Daniel and Kansas' Todd Reesing threw for more yardage than McCoy. And Tebow didn't even finish in the Top 20 nationally in that category.

Harrell threw more TD passes than Tebow or McCoy. And he only threw seven interceptions in 568 pass attempts (by comparison, Bradford was intercepted six times in 442 attempts and McCoy was picked off seven times in 375 attempts). To be fair, Tebow was only picked off twice (in fact, he's only been intercepted nine times in more than 650 career pass attempts).

Those three quarterbacks who will attend the Heisman ceremony did rate higher than Harrell in passing efficiency — but they all (including Harrell) finished in the top 10 nationally in that category.

I see no justification for omitting Harrell — and I can understand why Tech's partisans are feeling dissed.

The Raider Buzz blog says it is one more example of how Tech is "overlooked by the rest of the nation" and sees a pattern: "Tech is in a BCS conference and has one loss. It lost to the team that will play for a national title. So why is Tech ranked lower than one-loss USC, which lost to Oregon State … a team that lost four games? So why is Tech ranked lower (in the AP and USA Today polls) than one-loss Penn State … which lost to Iowa … another team that lost four games?"

I understand that Harrell isn't going to win the Heisman. I knew that when Tech got buried late in the season by Oklahoma.

But, for the season he's had, he deserves a trip to New York.

Being denied that national recognition is nothing more or less than a snub.

Evaluating the BCS Bowls

In the BCS' present arrangement, four of the "traditional" bowl games and a national championship game are labeled "BCS bowls" — in what passes for a playoff series — although only the top two teams in the BCS rankings at the end of the season compete for the national title.

This season, the finalists are Florida and Oklahoma. They will face each other in Miami on Jan. 8.

I broke down that matchup (to a degree) the other day and I'll have more to say about it in the coming weeks.

Today, I would like to evaluate the other four games.

Fiesta Bowl
Monday, Jan. 5
8 p.m. (EST), FOX

Texas (11-1, #3 in BCS) vs. Ohio State (10-2, #10 in BCS) — Some pro-Texas theorists have been coming up with wildly improbable scenarios that will bend the time/space continuum until it snaps like a dry twig.

In reality, though, the best Texas can hope for is to beat Ohio State and finish the season second behind either Florida or Oklahoma.

The Buckeyes and the Longhorns should be fairly familiar foes. They faced each other in high-profile nonconference games in 2005 and 2006. Texas won the first meeting, 25-22, and Ohio State won the second, 24-7.

Here's how they compare offensively:

• Texas is 11th in the nation in passing yards per game. Ohio State ranks 104th.


• But Ohio State, behind the running of Chris Wells, has the statistical edge in rushing yards. The Buckeyes are 28th. The Longhorns are 34th.


• In points per game, there's no comparison. Texas is fifth in the nation, averaging 43.9 points per game. Ohio State is 45th, averaging 28.2 points per game.

Well, we knew Texas was putting up some good numbers on offense.

On the defensive side of the ball,

• Both teams have done a pretty good job of keeping opponents from scoring, but Ohio State has the advantage. The Buckeyes are seventh in the country, giving up an average of 13.1 points per game. The Longhorns are 21st in the nation, allowing 18.6 points per game.


• The Texas defense is ranked second in the nation in rushing defense, which is bad news for the Ohio State offense. The Buckeyes' run defense is pretty good, too, with a national ranking of 20th.


• Ohio State's pass defense (with Kurt Coleman, tied for 35th in the country in interceptions) is ranked sixth in the nation, which is bad news for the Texas offense and Colt McCoy. Texas' pass defense is 110th in the country — which is comparable to the OSU pass offense.


• Total defense belongs to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are ranked eighth in the country. The Longhorns are ranked 50th.

If Texas plays like it did when it still had hope of playing in the Big 12 title game, I think the Longhorns can handle the Buckeyes.

But, if Texas can't shake off the disappointment of not being in the national championship game, I think Ohio State can win the game.

The schools played no common opponents.

Orange Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1
8 p.m. (EST), FOX

Cincinnati (11-2, #12 in BCS) vs. Virginia Tech (9-4, #19 in BCS) — The last time the schools met was two years ago, in September 2006. Virginia Tech won, 29-13.

From a TV ratings perspective, the game has very little to recommend it — certainly not when compared to the Florida-Oklahoma blockbuster that will be played in Miami a week later. But it will have the evening time slot to itself. The Orange Bowl will be the only game being played on New Year's Night.

How do they match up?

• Cincinnati is ranked 24th in the country in passing yardage (with Tony Pike, who is 29th in the nation in passing efficiency). Virginia Tech is 112th.


• But Tech has the edge in rushing yardage. Tech ranks 42nd. Cincinnati is 94th.


• Neither team has been lighting up the scoreboard. Cincinnati is 51st in points per game. Tech is 89th.

Something tells me not to expect a high-scoring affair, although you never know. Cincinnati's Mardy Gilyard is 18th in the nation in all-purpose yardage.

On defense,

• Virginia Tech is 13th in the nation in points allowed per game. Cincinnati isn't bad, ranked 27th.


• Both teams enjoyed success stopping the run this season. Cincinnati ranks 13th in run defense. Virginia Tech ranks 19th.


• Virginia Tech is 15th in the nation in defending against the pass, thanks in part to Victor Harris, who tied for fifth in the nation in interceptions. Cincinnati is 68th.


• Virginia Tech is seventh in the nation in total defense. Cincinnati is 26th.

Virginia Tech's fate may depend upon how well the pass defense can stop Pike.

The schools played no common opponents this year, although one of Cincinnati's losses was to Oklahoma in September.

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Michigan beat Stanford in the first Rose Bowl, 49-0.

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Rose Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1
5 p.m. (EST), ABC

Penn State (11-1, #8 in BCS) vs. USC (11-1, #5 in BCS) — This will be the second time that USC and Penn State have faced each other in the Rose Bowl. The first time they played was on Jan. 1, 1923, in the official dedication of the Rose Bowl stadium.

The two schools took on two common opponents during the 2008 regular season. One was Oregon State. Penn State won its game with OSU easily, 45-14, in early September, but three weeks later, OSU beat USC, 27-21.

The other common opponent was a high-profile foe that both Penn State and USC defeated — Ohio State. USC beat the Buckeyes, 35-3, and Penn State won, 13-6.

On offense,

• USC ranks 31st in in passing yardage (with Mark Sanchez ranked 13th in passing efficiency). Penn State ranks 35th (with Daryll Clark ranked 23rd in passing efficiency).


• It's even closer in rushing yardage. Penn State ranks 15th (led by Evan Royster, who rates 25th in rushing). USC ranks 17th.


• The teams have put up comparable numbers when it comes to scoring — reflecting, I suppose, how close they were to each other in rushing and passing. Penn State is 11th in points per game. USC is 14th.

With two teams that rank in the top 15 in points per game, I'd expect to see a lot of scoring in Pasadena.

Who has the edge in defense?

Well, numerically, the edge belongs to USC, the #1 team in the nation in many defensive categories. But Penn State has had a pretty solid year in defense as well.

• USC was the stingiest team in the nation when it came to giving up points. The Trojans allowed only 7.8 points per game. But Penn State was fourth in the nation, allowing only 12.4 points per game.


• USC has a narrow edge in rushing defense. The Trojans are ranked fifth. The Nittany Lions are ranked eighth.


• Perhaps the most distinct defensive advantage belongs to USC in the category of pass defense. USC ranks first in the nation while Penn State is 12th.


• And USC is first in the nation in total defense. Penn State is fifth.

Both conferences are considered lacking when compared to the Big 12 and the Southeastern conferences, but these two teams seem to be well matched and could provide the most competitive of the major bowls.

Sugar Bowl
Friday, Jan. 2
8 p.m. (EST), FOX

Alabama (12-1, #4 in BCS) vs. Utah (12-0, #6 in BCS) — If you're not a fan of the passing game, this might be the game for you.

• In passing offense, Utah ranks 41st (even so, Brian Johnson ranks 18th in passing efficiency). Alabama ranks 96th.


• In rushing offense, Alabama is 23rd (Glen Coffee is 21st in the country in rushing). Utah is 41st.


• In points per game, Utah is 15th. Alabama is 30th.

On defense, both teams rank pretty highly, although I think that probably means more in Alabama's case than Utah's.

The Southeastern Conference is simply superior to the Mountain West.

• In points allowed per game, Alabama is sixth. Utah is 12th.


• In rushing defense, Alabama is fourth in the nation. Utah is 14th.


• In pass defense, Alabama is 21st (Rashad Johnson shares 31st in interceptions). Utah is 40th (but Sean Smith is tied for 21st in interceptions).


• And in total defense, Alabama is third. Utah is 18th.

The teams faced no common opponents this season.

Florida Will Be Worthy Foe For Oklahoma

The BCS selections won’t be announced for more than four hours, although I’m inclined to agree with Stewart Mandel when he says, in Sports lllustrated, that "there will be little suspense" — and most of that will be over whether Oklahoma or Florida should be ranked #1.

In spite of the three-way tie for the Big 12 South title and the rule that put the tiebreaker in the hands of the BCS, it’s hard to argue against Oklahoma’s inclusion in the national championship game after the Sooners exceeded 60 points for the fifth consecutive game Saturday night.

If the Sooners had scored another field goal against Kansas State, they would have broken 60 in six straight.

It’s the most productive offense in memory — the first in the modern era, observes Jake Trotter in The Oklahoman, to score more than 700 points in a season.

Even in their only loss of the year, the Sooners scored five touchdowns.

Now, Oklahoma will have to face what is arguably the best defense it has faced all season. "Finally, perhaps, the Sooner offense may meet its match," writes Trotter.

Actually, Texas fans might argue that the Sooner offense already met its match.

Quarterback Tim Tebow — who won last year’s Heisman but will, I believe, finish second to Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford this year — and the Gator offense get all the attention, but the defense has been quietly doing its job all season.

Granted, TCU — which held the Sooners to 35 points in their September meeting — ranks higher in every team defense category than Florida or any of the teams Oklahoma played this season.

In all fairness, TCU does play in the Mountain West conference. And, while that conference has some respectable programs — like Utah and Brigham Young — it isn’t exactly as deep as the Southeastern Conference.

That’s why Florida will be a worthy adversary in Oklahoma’s final hurdle to the national title. The Gators face high-quality programs every week.

The Gators haven’t scored as prodigiously as the Sooners, and it’s the very absence of the kind of glittering numbers he compiled last year that appears to stand in Tebow’s way this year.

But perhaps the Heisman voters will remember that his success as a sophomore made Tebow the target of everyone he played as a junior — much like the 1973 Miami Dolphins team that had to defend not only its Super Bowl title but its undefeated season every time it took the field.

It’s hard to meet expectations when you’ve got a target on your chest in every game.

Even so, Tebow and the Gators haven’t done poorly. The offense hasn't put up Oklahoma-like numbers, but the defense is highly ranked in most categories and held the top-ranked team in the nation, Alabama, to 20 points in yesterday’s SEC title game.

For the record, the ’73 Dolphins didn’t do too badly, either. In spite of the pressure of being the squad that had to defend the legendary 17-0 season, Miami only lost two games the next year, won the Super Bowl and finished with an overall record of 15-2.

A Painful Memory

Today, during the first half of the Alabama-Florida game, they mentioned that this was the first time in 39 years that the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the Associated Press poll faced each other in December.

I remember that game. It occurred exactly 39 years ago today, December 6, in 1969. It was the Arkansas-Texas game.

Some folks called it "The Game of the Century." And some folks called it "The Great Shootout."

I grew up in Conway, Ark., which is in the central part of the state, and the Arkansas campus, where the game was played, is in the northwest corner of the state, about 120 miles away.

But geography doesn't matter in Arkansas. Whether you live in Texarkana to the southwest, Blytheville to the northeast or Monticello to the southeast or anywhere in between, just about everyone pulls for the Razorbacks.

And, in 1969, there was no cable. There were only the three major networks — and some restrictive regulations that limited the number of TV appearances a program could make during the regular season.

ABC's Roone Arledge made a deal with Arkansas coach/athletic director Frank Broyles to move the game to the end of the season, meaning an exclusive national viewing audience — and Arledge threw in a pledge that the president, Richard Nixon, would attend the game in person.

Arledge also promised to televise Arkansas' season opener the next year, which was against Jim Plunkett and Stanford.

In return, Broyles had to assure Arledge the footing would be good, so he installed AstroTurf at Razorback Stadium.

It was a gamble that Arkansas and Texas would win the rest of their games and play in a showdown of unbeaten teams as the regular-season finale for college football's 100th season.

The gamble paid off. Both teams were unbeaten. Nixon arrived after the kickoff, but in time to see most of the game. He was accompanied by politicians from both states, including a young representative from Texas named George H.W. Bush.

It's hard to imagine, these days, how incredible the hype was for the game. In their book "The Razorbacks," veteran Arkansas sportswriters Jim Bailey and Orville Henry called it "The Day The Nation Watched," and it truly was.

The day was raw and damp, as I recall. We lived in a hilly area and depended on the old-fashioned TV antenna to pick up signals from the Little Rock stations. The weather interfered with the TV signals and, at one point during the game, the wind and the rain knocked it loose. The picture suddenly went haywire.

My father decided to climb up on the roof to re-attach the antenna. I remember watching him climb up the ladder and make his way to the apex of the roof while the wind swirled around him and a cold rain stung him from time to time. From below, my mother called up instructions to him, advising my father not to electrocute himself.

Somehow, he fixed the antenna and we watched the rest of the game from the comfort of our living room. In the cold and the rain in Fayetteville, Texas rallied from a 14-0 deficit with 15 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and won the game, 15-14.

Nixon came down to Texas' locker room and proclaimed the Longhorns the national champions — even though they still had a Cotton Bowl date with Notre Dame on New Year's Day.

The pain in Arkansas the following week was almost too great to describe.

Actually, a much better memory of a December 6 — for Arkansas fans — came six years later. In Little Rock's War Memorial Stadium, Arkansas upset previously unbeaten and second-ranked Texas A&M, 31-6, to win the Southwest Conference and advance to the Cotton Bowl, where the Razorbacks beat the Georgia Bulldogs, 31-10.

Will Tebow Jump to the NFL?

In Florida Today, David Jones reports that Florida's junior quarterback — and defending Heisman Trophy winner — Tim Tebow is considering "fil[ing] the paperwork with the NFL to see about his possible draft status, should he elect to leave school early for the NFL."

That's not really a surprise in this day and age. It often seems to be less common for an athlete to stay at a school for four years than it is to jump after one's junior year.

Merely filing the paperwork doesn't mean Tebow will leave school early — but it does mean he's weighing that option.

Seen in that context, then, it's prudent to regard Saturday's SEC championship game against top-ranked Alabama as Tebow's final conference game of his collegiate career. If it isn't, it still should be an entertaining game to watch.

Jones also reports that the CBS announcers who will handle the duties in the broadcast booth — Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson — believe that Tebow could win his second Heisman if he has a big game against Alabama.

And Jones reports that the only man — so far — to win two Heisman Trophies, Archie Griffin, also thinks Tebow has a strong shot.

Former Heisman winners are permitted to vote in the Heisman balloting, but Griffin said he wants to watch Tebow's performance against Alabama before deciding how he'll vote.

Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford is considered the front-runner for this year's Heisman.

Breaking News (?) From Auburn

The Birmingham News is reporting that the decision to dismiss football coach Tommy Tuberville has been made at Auburn.

No announcement has been made so far, but Tuberville met with the athletic director yesterday and today. And today he also met with the university president.

When an announcement is made, it will be either that he's been fired or that he's the recipient of a rousing endorsement from the Auburn administration.

And I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that "rousing endorsement." The signals seem to suggest a coaching change is in the works.

Charles Goldberg points out that Auburn was a "disappointing 5-7" this season — and, certainly, the 36-0 loss to in-state rival Alabama in last weekend's "Iron Bowl" is one of the disappointments that Auburn fans endured this year.

But Tuberville is 7-3 against Alabama in his tenure at Auburn — and, before Saturday's loss, he had won six in a row against the Crimson Tide.

As it is with all coaches, it's about the numbers. The cumulative numbers.

Of course, it wasn't just the loss to Alabama that hurt Tuberville's cause — although it obviously didn't help.

Considering that Auburn came into the season as the media's choice to win the SEC West — but Alabama won the division and may play for the national title — I think it may have been just one more nail in Tuberville's coffin.

He might have been able to salvage his job with a win over Alabama — but that's going to be nothing but speculation now, I believe.

After the Tigers started the season 3-0, they won only two of their last nine games — and they will take a five-game SEC losing streak into the 2009 season, whoever the coach is.

To say Auburn's offense struggled this season is to be generous:

• Auburn was 100th in the nation in passing yards per game.


• Auburn was 71st in the nation in rushing yards per game.


• The Tigers were 112th in the nation in scoring.

Auburn was somewhat better on defense.

But the defense couldn't compensate for the fact that Auburn only scored about 17 points per game.

• Auburn was 17th in the nation in points allowed per game.


• The Tigers were 53rd in rushing yards allowed.


• Auburn was 23rd in the nation in passing yards allowed.


• And the Tigers were 26th in total defense.

SEC, Big 12 on Collision Course

If everything goes according to expectations, the SEC and Big 12 Conference championship games on Saturday will decide the participants in the national championship game in Miami on Jan. 8.

That seems to be a given in the SEC, where the top-ranked team in the BCS, Alabama, will play the #4 team in the BCS, Florida. That game will be played in Atlanta starting at 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS. Whichever team wins is expected to advance to the national championship game.

In the Big 12, the team that is ranked #2 in the BCS — Oklahoma — faces the team that is currently ranked 20th in the BCS — Missouri.

If Oklahoma wins the game, the Sooners are expected to play for the national title, but Missouri will not advance to Miami if the Tigers pull off the upset. If Missouri does beat Oklahoma, it is expected that Texas will face either Alabama or Florida in the national championship game.

That game will be televised at 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC.

Here's how things look:

• Florida vs. Alabama — This appears to be shaping up as a confrontation between the Florida offense, led by defending Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, and the Alabama defense — although Tebow's numbers aren't as spectacular as they were last year.
  
  In the offensive categories,
  
  
  • Florida is 61st nationally in passing yards per game. Alabama is 97th.
  
  
  • Florida is 10th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Alabama is 22nd.
  
  
  • In points per game, Florida is third in the nation, scoring slightly more than 46 points per game. Alabama is 29th with an average of about 32 points per game.
  
  On the defensive side of the ball,
  
  
  • The two teams are neck and neck in points allowed per game. Alabama is third in the country, giving up 11.5 points per game. Florida is fourth in the country, yielding 12.3 points per game.
  
  
  • In rushing defense, Alabama is ranked second in the nation. Florida is ranked 12th.
  
  
  • In passing defense, Florida holds a narrow lead over Alabama. Florida is 17th in the nation and Alabama is 20th.
  
  
  • In total defense, Alabama is ranked third. Florida is ranked seventh.

What does all that mean? Well, on offense, Florida has the edge in the significant team categories, but both teams are strong running the ball. Tebow's passing seems to have helped the Gators build a big advantage in scoring — but don't overlook Tebow's ability to score TDs on the ground, which has helped the Gators' running game become one of the 10 best in the nation.

On defense, both teams have been successful in preventing the other team from scoring and both teams have done a good job of stopping the run and the pass. Ultimately, Alabama's pass defense may hold the key. If the defenders can stop Tebow by land and by air, Alabama should win the game — but the Crimson Tide will still need help from its offensive unit.

It may be helpful to look at some of the individual statistics.

Penalties, for example.

Florida has been penalized nearly twice as often as Alabama. Some ill-timed penalties could halt crucial Florida drives or breathe new life into Alabama drives.

Being from opposing divisions, the two teams have few opponents in common. Alabama beat three teams from the SEC East — Georgia, 41-30; Kentucky, 17-14; and Tennessee, 29-9. Florida also beat those three teams by scores of 49-10, 63-5, and 30-6, respectively.

Florida went 2-1 in its games against the SEC West, losing to Ole Miss, 31-30, and beating Arkansas, 38-7, and LSU, 51-21. Alabama went 3-0 against those teams, 24-20, 49-14 and 27-21.

When comparing the results of the games against those six teams, Florida clearly performed better against Georgia, Kentucky and LSU. Alabama narrowly beat the Ole Miss team that barely beat Florida. And the outcomes against Tennessee and Arkansas were roughly the same for both Alabama and Florida.

It's a close call. I've felt all season that Alabama was the best team in the country, and I'll stick with the Crimson Tide in this game.

But I won't be surprised if it goes into overtime.


• Missouri vs. Oklahoma — Let's look at the same categories in the Big 12 championship game — but because the BCS rankings put OU into the championship game and left Texas out, I compare the numbers of the two combatants with the numbers put up by the Longhorns:
  
  In the offensive categories,
  
  
  • Oklahoma and Missouri are neck and neck in passing yardage. Oklahoma is third in the country, Missouri is fourth. (Texas, by the way, is 11th.)
  
  
  • In rushing yardage, Oklahoma is 21st in the country. Missouri is ranked 46th. (Texas is 34th.)
  
  
  • In points per game, Oklahoma leads the nation with a 53.3 average. Missouri is fourth with a 45.0 average. (Texas is sixth, averaging 43.9 points per game.)

In the defensive categories,


• Missouri is 58th in the nation in points allowed per game, giving up an average of 24.7. Oklahoma is 60th, surrendering 24.8. (Texas is 21st, yielding 18.6 points per game.)


• Oklahoma is ranked 18th in rushing defense. Missouri is ranked 24th. (Texas is third.)


• In passing defense, Oklahoma is 99th in the nation. Missouri is nearly the worst, ranked 117th. (Texas falls in between the two at 109th.)


• In total defense, Oklahoma ranks 66th. Missouri ranks 92nd. (Texas is 50th).

Based on those numbers, I expect a high-scoring game between these two schools. The most important factor appears to be the passing game, On the offensive side of the ball, both schools are in the top five nationally, but both passing defenses are among the worst in the nation.

Oklahoma's had a pretty good running game this year while Missouri's has been adequate if unspectacular. Both defenses are in the top 25 against the run so, while the running game has been a traditional component of OU's offense, I don't expect it to be the key in Saturday's game.

Oklahoma has forced more turnovers and committed fewer than Missouri. But the Sooners have been penalized twice as often as the Tigers. If you're talking about the turnovers when the game is over, OU probably won. But if you're talking about the penalties that were committed, Missouri may have pulled off the upset.

How did they do against common foes? Well, like the SEC championship contenders, they each played three teams from the other school's division.

Oklahoma was 3-0 against Big 12 North foes Kansas (45-31), Kansas State (58-35) and Nebraska (62-28). Missouri was 2-1 against those teams, losing to Kansas last weekend (40-37) but beating Kansas State (41-24) and Nebraska (52-17).

The Sooners clearly played better against Kansas and won by a wider margin against Kansas State, but the Tigers actually had a wider margin against Nebraska than Oklahoma did.

Against the Big 12 South, Missouri was 1-2, narrowly beating Baylor (31-28) and losing to Texas (56-31) and Oklahoma State (28-23). Oklahoma also lost to Texas (45-35) but beat Baylor (49-17) and Oklahoma State (61-41).

Both teams lost to Texas, but the final point spread was closer in the Oklahoma game. OU beat Baylor by 10 times the margin Missouri did and beat Oklahoma State while Missouri lost to OSU. Again, the edge goes to Oklahoma.

The numbers seem to favor Oklahoma.

It's Oklahoma ... By a Nose

The Oklahoma Sooners grabbed a narrow lead over Texas in the latest BCS standings today, thus taking the Big 12 South's spot in next Saturday's conference championship game against Missouri.

Alabama ranks first in the BCS standings and will play Florida for the SEC title next week. Florida is fourth in the rankings — but it is widely assumed that, if Florida defeats Alabama, the Gators will play for the national title. If Alabama wins, it is a given that the Crimson Tide will be in the national title game.

For that reason, the SEC championship game is being treated as a national semifinal playoff game.

If Oklahoma beats Missouri, it is also widely assumed that the Sooners will face either the Crimson Tide or the Gators in the national championship game.

But, if OU happens to lose to Missouri, the logical assumption is that Texas, which is third in the BCS rankings and only a hair behind the Sooners, will move up to take the other slot in the national championship game.

I think that's a pretty safe assumption.

So, if you're a Texas fan, you'll probably have to hope that Missouri has the biggest game in its history next week.

That's kind of a dicey proposition.

As members of different divisions in the Big 12, the two schools do not face each other every season — only on an alternating basis. In 2007 and 2006, though, they did face each other during the regular season and, in 2007, they met for a second time in the Big 12 championship game. The Sooners won all three meetings by an average score of 35-19.

Missouri has had some good teams in the last few years, but the Tigers have had something of a split personality this season.

They were competitive against a good Oklahoma State team this year — but they were 1-2 against ranked opponents, and that one victory came at the very beginning of the season against then-No. 20 Illinois, which finished the season unranked and a disappointing 5-7.

The Tigers thoroughly dominated every team in their division except the Kansas team that beat them on Saturday — but they barely got past Baylor four weeks ago.

By the way, Kansas lost to all three of the teams that shared the Big 12 South title — but the Jayhawks would have won the Big 12 North if they had beaten Nebraska on Nov. 8.

Sorting Out the Big 12 South

I've been trying to figure out a fair way of breaking the three-way tie between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South.

In the latest developments, Texas moved past Oklahoma in the latest AP poll, and Oklahoma was a mere one point ahead of Texas in the coaches' poll. There are still some numbers to come, to be digested and then applied to the Big 12 South race.

Of course, the BCS will do that for us later today. But my objective is to find a way to break the tie and send the most appropriate representative to the conference championship game — without permitting the BCS rankings to interfere, influence or make the decision.

Oklahoma is, deservedly, proud of its high-scoring offense (although the Longhorns and Red Raiders also have put lots of points on the board this season).

And Texas is, deservedly, proud of its stingy scoring defense.

All of which supports my primary position, which is that football is a team game.

In spite of the massive attention that the "skill" players — the quarterbacks, running backs and wideouts — receive, football is still a team game. Every player has to do his part for the unit to succeed.

The quarterback with the best, most accurate arm in the country will rarely even get a pass into the air if his offensive line is unable to hold its blocks. The fastest, most elusive running back will find few holes to run through if the offensive linemen do not do their jobs.

And each coach handles his team differently. Coach A may take his starters out of the game as soon as they've built a lead of about 20 points or so. Coach B may prefer to wait until the score is more lopsided. Coach C may not take his starters out at all, no matter what the score.

Consequently, there may be huge — although technically insignificant — variations in point differentials.

In the great scheme of things, though, a win should be a win should be a win.

If we start rewarding teams because of point differentials, we encourage programs to schedule vastly inferior nonconference foes and keep pouring on the points long after the issue has been decided.

That means fewer and fewer nonconference games will be scheduled between national powers. The only meaningful games to be played during the regular season will be the ones that are played within a conference.

By emphasizing point differentials, we also encourage coaches to put their best players at risk of injury much longer than they otherwise would be inclined — strictly in the interest of adding another touchdown or two to the final score.

This season, it has been impressive that Oklahoma has scored at least 52 points in two-thirds of its games. And the offense deserves to be recognized for its accomplishments.

But the Sooners had to score a lot of points — half of the time, they gave up at least 28 to the opposition. In fact, only one Big 12 rival (Baylor) failed to score at least 21 points against the Sooners.

And, if Oklahoma State had scored 41 points against Texas as it did against OU, the Cowboys — not the Longhorns — would have come in to the Thanksgiving weekend with a chance of playing for the conference crown.

It's true that the Sooners have averaged about 59 points per game since the Oct. 11 loss to Texas. But it's also true that, in that same six-game span, the defense has given up nearly 31 points per game.

Most teams will win if they score 31 points.

On average, at least 59 other schools gave up fewer points per game this season than the Sooners.

Scoring alone, clearly, doesn't tell the story of a team's season.

And, just as clearly, defense is still important, even with all the attention that the Big Three quarterbacks have drawn this season.

So I've decided to look at seven team categories:

1. Passing offense


2. Rushing offense


3. Scoring offense


4. Scoring defense


5. Rushing defense


6. Passing defense


7. Total defense

I use the following point system:

Whichever team is ranked higher among the three teams in a particular category receives one point. The team that is ranked second in that category receives two points. The team with the third-best ranking receives three points. Differentials within categories are not considered.

The team with the lowest number, therefore, is the team that should represent the division in the conference championship.

Using this approach, Texas ranks first in three of the seven categories — scoring defense, rushing defense and total defense. Texas Tech (passing offense and passing defense) and Oklahoma (rushing offense and scoring offense) each rank first in two categories.

But Oklahoma earns the edge by being no worse than second in the other five categories. The final point totals were:

1. Oklahoma 12 points


2. Texas 14 points


3. Texas Tech 16 points

Under this system, Texas could have turned things around if the Longhorns had done a little better than the Sooners in the two categories where Texas was third among the three and OU was second.

Those categories were passing offense and passing defense.

Texas Tech appears to have lost whatever momentum it had prior to the Oklahoma game. The Red Raiders had a chance to make a statement against Baylor — and barely avoided an embarrassing upset. In the process, they have worked themselves out of a discussion of which they were in charge until their trip to Norman a week ago.

So the battle is between Texas and Oklahoma. Personally, I feel the best way to compare two teams is their head-to-head meeting. The outcome of that game, a win for Texas, is a fact — millions watched it on TV — whereas the assertion that Oklahoma is playing better than Texas right now is purely subjective.

It seems to me that such a conclusion puts the burden of proof on the prosecution (Oklahoma), but where is the proof that the Longhorns are playing any worse than they were playing the day they beat the Sooners? The only such evidence might be the Longhorns' last-second loss in Lubbock on Nov. 1 — but, since that time, Texas has outscored its opponents by an average of 31 points.

Nevertheless, I feel Oklahoma will probably move past Texas in the BCS rankings later today.

Whatever happens, it's sure to be controversial.

Now It's In The Hands of the Voters

The expected result may not have been achieved in the expected ways — but it's been achieved, nevertheless.

A three-way tie between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech exists at the top of the Big 12 South standings. One of those teams must play Big 12 North champion Missouri next week for the conference title — even though Missouri didn't cover itself with glory in its loss to Kansas earlier today and will deserve to be the underdog in the championship game.

Of the three, Texas' performance against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night was probably along the lines of what most viewers expected to see — a 49-9 blowout.

But then fans almost saw something they didn't expect — Baylor came close to upsetting Tech in Lubbock. The Red Raiders won, 35-28, but, as I pointed out on this blog last week, it's been nearly 20 years since Baylor beat Tech in Lubbock. Tech may have been a bit complacent.

The Red Raiders, perhaps still in a daze after being hammered by OU last week, stumbled around and fell behind by two touchdowns. Thanks to a second-half rally, Texas Tech prevailed and grabbed a share of the Big 12 South title.

And the Red Raiders would be making preparations for the conference championship game at this very minute if OU hadn't managed to beat Oklahoma State, 61-41, in Stillwater tonight.

But the Sooners won that game, so each team is 7-1, and conference rules require that the tie will be broken by the BCS rankings. The team that is ranked highest in the BCS will win the division and advance to face Missouri next week.

We'll find out how that shakes down tomorrow. In the BCS rankings before Thanksgiving, Texas held a slim lead over OU. But, as I mentioned earlier in this blog, I expect Oklahoma to get more credit in the computer rankings for beating Oklahoma State than Texas will get from beating Texas A&M.

It's hard to tell what kind of influence the scores of the final regular-season games will have on the polls, but my guess is that Oklahoma will slip past Texas and go on to play Missouri next weekend.

I must say that I don't particularly care for this wrinkle. When the BCS was created, the objective was to select only the #1 and #2 teams for the national championship. It was never intended to be used as a tiebreaker for a conference championship.

The BCS now seems to be exceeding its intended authority.

The BCS rankings are calculated by including the rankings in the coaches' poll — which means that, if the BCS rankings are used to break a three-way tie for a conference or divisional title, coaches from around the country are playing roles in deciding the winners in conferences other than their own.

That simply doesn't seem right to me.

But that's the rule that's in place in the Big 12 this season. So that's how the tie will be broken.

What about next season? Do you support the status quo?

Packers Will Win NFC North

Heading into last weekend, Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota were tied atop the NFC North — formerly the NFC Central but, as always, the "Black and Blue Division" — with records of 5-5.

The Bears and Vikings both won, improving to 6-5 prior to their showdown in Minnesota next weekend. The Packers lost to New Orleans on Monday night.

But I think the Packers can finish on top of the division. And I don't particularly feel that I'm going out on a limb in saying so. Here’s why:

• Let’s be clear about one thing. The winless Detroit Lions show no inclination to get their first win of the season any time soon.
  
  As Bob Wojnowski observes in the Detroit News, "It's hard to tell if the Lions are feeling the pressure [of losing] or if they're just an accumulation of poor players playing poorly."
  
  Whichever it is, Green Bay and Minnesota each have one game left with Detroit — which should be regarded as lead pipe cinch victories. The Bears have already played Detroit twice this season so the Bears have no more automatic "Ws."
  
  And both the Vikings and Packers pick up a "gimme" victory at Detroit’s expense.


• Both Chicago and Green Bay have games to play with the 4-7 Houston Texans, but there’s a catch. The Texans have been much better at home (where they’re 3-2 so far) than they’ve been on the road (where they’re 1-5). The Bears have to play at Houston; the Packers get to play Houston in Green Bay.
  
  The Bears have struggled on the road, so I’ll predict that Houston wins that one. And the Packers will beat Houston at Lambeau Field.


• In almost the same situation with a different home-road wrinkle, Chicago and Green Bay each have a game left against 4-7 Jacksonville. The Jaguars have struggled at home, where they’re 1-5, but they’ve got a winning record on the road (3-2). Jacksonville will play at Chicago, then come home to play Green Bay, next month.
  
  Again, the home and road numbers suggest advantage to Green Bay and disadvantage to Chicago, but, in this case, I’m going to predict a reversal from the Houston game outcomes. Chicago wins at home, Green Bay loses at Jacksonville.
  
  Hey, this is the NFL we're talking about. Inexplicable things always happen in the NFL.


• If Minnesota gets past Chicago and Detroit in the next two weeks, the Vikings will occupy the top spot in the division at that time with an 8-5 record — and I think that's what will happen.
  
  But they’ve got some mountains to climb against playoff contenders in the final three weeks, when they travel to 7-4 Arizona (the Cardinals are 4-1 at home so far), play host to 7-4 Atlanta (the Falcons have struggled on the road) and finish the regular season with a home game against the 10-1 New York Giants, who are 7-0 against NFC competition.
  
  It’s entirely possible that the Vikings will finish the season at 8-8 or 9-7 — and possibly miss the playoffs. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they’ll beat Atlanta, finishing the season at 9-7.


• As for Chicago, I’ve predicted that the Bears will lose to Minnesota and Houston and beat Jacksonville.
  
  That makes the other two games vital for them, and they’re back-to-back home games — against New Orleans on Thursday, Dec. 11, and Green Bay on Monday, Dec. 22.
  
  Neither opponent has played particularly well on the road, but I’m going to predict that at least one — probably the Packers, who have already beaten the Bears once and are more accustomed to the windy, possibly snowy conditions of Soldier Field than the Saints — will win in Chicago.
  
  That leaves Chicago at 8-8.


• I’ve predicted that the Packers would beat Detroit and Chicago, which would give them the best division record (5-1). I’ve also predicted they would beat Houston and lose to Jacksonville.
  
  That leaves one more game — this Sunday’s home game against Carolina.
  
  As I see it, this game is all about location, location, location.
  
  Three NFC teams are undefeated at home, and Carolina (8-3 overall) is one of them. But the Panthers are 2-3 on the road.
  
  Green Bay, on the other hand, is not unbeaten at home, but the Packers have been respectable, with a 3-2 record.
  
  And the Panthers are trying to bounce back from Sunday’s 45-28 loss at Atlanta.
  
  Neither team seems to have a real edge in total defense. Carolina ranks eighth in the NFC, Green Bay ranks ninth.
  
  The Packers, however, are second in the NFC in passing defense, whereas the Panthers are 12th in passing offense in the NFC.
  
  On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers has helped the Packers settle into sixth place in the NFC in passing. The Panthers counter with the sixth-ranked passing defense in the NFC.
  
  And, in case you’re wondering about the weather …
  
  The Panthers will leave the comparatively balmy climate of North Carolina (temperatures expected to be in the 50s most of this week) to play in chilly Green Bay, where the forecasters currently predict a high of about 35 on Sunday.
  
  After losing to New Orleans on Monday night, the Packers will be eager for redemption.
  
  And winning that game should contribute to an eventual 9-7 finish for Green Bay.

That would leave Minnesota and Green Bay tied for first place in the NFC North, and the two teams have split their regular-season games.

Based on the tiebreaking procedure, the next tiebreaker is best record in division play, and I predict the Packers will clinch that by winning their games with Chicago and Detroit.

Can the Packers win in the playoffs? I don't know, but the objective at this point is simply to get to the playoffs. And I think the Packers will.

OU's Win Probably Means UT Is Out

When Oklahoma trounced visiting Texas Tech, 65-21, Saturday night, the Sooners did more than just hang an impressive loss on a previously unbeaten team.

The dust hasn't settled yet, but we already know there will be considerable fallout from that one football game. It's possible that that many hearts haven't been broken in Lubbock, Texas, since the legendary "day the music died."

But the game may have broken more hearts in Austin.

The Longhorns, of course, have lost only once — that last-second miracle in Lubbock a few weeks ago — and they only have one regular-season game left, against their rivals from Texas A&M who have struggled through a 4-7 season. Most people expect Texas to prevail in that one.

But both OU and Tech have only one conference loss as well. And now all three schools' final games next weekend take on a significance in the Big 12 that they would not have achieved if the Red Raiders had won the encounter with the Sooners in Norman, Okla., Saturday night.

As improbable as it may have seemed when the season began, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas A&M can exert enormous influence on the outcome of the race for the Big 12 South title.

But the odds don't seem too favorable for the Longhorns.

Oklahoma must visit in-state rival Oklahoma State next Saturday — the Cowboys have often been pushovers in the past but not this year.

OSU is 9-2, but both losses came in conference play (to Texas, 28-24, and Texas Tech, 56-20) so the Cowboys can't get into the conference championship game unless several wildly improbable things happen. But they can influence who does.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, must play its final home game against 4-7 Baylor next Saturday.

The outcome of the Texas-Texas A&M game will already be known by the time both of those games kick off. The Longhorns and the Aggies will play this year's edition of their storied rivalry on Thanksgiving.

Stewart Mandel says, in Sports Illustrated, that OU's win over Tech has turned the Big 12 South into a "riddle."

But it's really quite simple.

And Oklahoma State seems to hold the key. Because the Cowboys are a ranked opponent, a victory over them will carry more weight in the computer rankings than a win over Texas A&M or Baylor.

So, while Texas has a slim lead today in the BCS, that lead could disappear when the BCS rankings that matter are calculated a week from now.

It will all depend on what happens in three games:

1. In what looks like the most likely scenario, if OU beats OSU and both Texas and Texas Tech also win (as they will be expected to do), a three-way tie will exist at the top of the Big 12 South standings. Such a tie will be broken based on which team is ranked higher in the BCS standings. In such a scenario, all three teams would be 1-1 in their head-to-head meetings, and no one would hold the advantage.
   
   Assuming that beating Oklahoma State will give OU enough momentum to overtake Texas in the BCS standings, Oklahoma would advance to the Big 12 championship game.


2. Now, if OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor, but Texas loses its focus and founders against A&M, then OU and Tech would finish in a tie for first, and OU would hold the tiebreaker.
   
   I haven't heard anyone suggest that an Aggie victory over the Longhorns is even possible. But, if it works out that way, as I say, Oklahoma would advance by virtue of its win over Tech.


3. What if OU doesn't beat OSU? Well, then things will depend on what happens with Texas and Texas Tech.
   
   If UT wins but Tech loses, Texas wins the Big 12 South title outright. If Texas Tech wins, it won't matter what Texas does — Tech will win the Big 12 South.
   
   And, if all three teams lose, we'll have a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South (adding OSU to the mix). If that happens, all I can say for certain is that no one from the Big 12 South will play for the national title.


4. Let's assume that Texas beats A&M and OU beats OSU but Tech can't rebound from losing the game to the Sooners and goes on to lose in a huge upset to Baylor.
   
   In that scenario, OU would share the title with Texas, and Texas would win the berth in the Big 12 championship game from the South division because the Longhorns beat the Sooners in Dallas last month.
   
   But Tech, as I say, is likely to beat Baylor. The game is in Lubbock, and Baylor hasn't won a road game all season. In fact, Baylor has won only two of its last eight games, and those two wins came against 2-9 Iowa State and 4-7 Texas A&M.
   
   In other years, beating A&M would be a landmark victory for the Baylor program — but, in so many ways, 2008 has been unlike "other years."

It seems to me that (other than Oklahoma State) Texas needs the most help getting into the Big 12 title game.

OU should get into it by beating Oklahoma State. And, if OU stumbles in Stillwater, I expect Tech to earn the bid to the conference championship game by beating Baylor.

Texas can win a two-way tie with OU, but it isn't likely to have the highest BCS ranking in the event of a three-way tie. And such a two-way tie with OU can only happen if Tech loses to Baylor.

How long has it been since Baylor beat Texas Tech? Well, the two teams were members of the old Southwest Conference before forming the Big 12 with the members of the old Big Eight along with Texas and Texas A&M in the 1990s. Baylor has never beaten Tech since they've been members of the Big 12.

The last victory Baylor enjoyed over Tech came when they were still in the SWC. It was on Sept. 25, 1993 — by the score of 28-26.

Bill Clinton had been president for less than a year.

Baylor hasn't beaten Texas Tech in Lubbock since 1990.

In just the last four games played between the two teams in Lubbock, Texas Tech has won by an average margin of about five touchdowns, 46.75-12.25.

Stormin' Norman

Norman, Okla., will be in the college football spotlight Saturday night when the Oklahoma Sooners host the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Clearly, the still unbeaten Red Raiders will be in the driver's seat in the Big 12 South if they win the game. The Sooners will have a chance to claim a share of the divisional title if they win — but only if they can beat Oklahoma State next week.

However, the battle for the Heisman Trophy may well be decided on the field in Norman. Texas Tech is led by quarterback Graham Harrell, ranked #1 in passing yardage per game. Oklahoma is led by quarterback Sam Bradford, ranked #3 in passing yardage per game.

Gil LeBreton writes, in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, that the key is Oklahoma's defense.

Not too long ago, he writes, "[w]ith its big-play defense and its Heisman candidate quarterback, Oklahoma looked like a national championship contender," but LeBreton contends that OU's defense changed when linebacker Ryan Reynolds suffered a season-ending injury against Texas.

On the eve of the Oklahoma-Texas Tech showdown, Oklahoma ranks 93rd in passing defense. Texas Tech ranks 98th in passing defense.

And LeBreton wonders, perhaps not facetiously, "[h]as there ever been a Big 12 [football] game in which both teams scored in the 80s?"

Last year's Heisman winner, Florida junior Tim Tebow, is often mentioned as a prospect to win this year's award, but I don't think he'll pull an Archie Griffin and win the award for the second straight year. He has the misfortune of being compared against what he accomplished in 2007 — and his numbers aren't close to what he put up last year.

The only way I see Tebow really getting into serious Heisman conversation at this stage is if something unexpected happens tomorrow night (i.e., OU and Tech fight through an atypically low-scoring, defensive football battle with a final score along the lines of 6-3) — and if Tebow has performances of legendary proportions against non-conference rival Florida State on Nov. 29 and then against top-ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6.

The other name that is often mentioned — although not as much recently &mdash is Texas quarterback Colt McCoy. But he has gradually fallen off the Heisman radar since Texas lost to Texas Tech, and the only way he'll return to prominence is if Harrell, Bradford and Tebow all falter.

Gary Shelton of the St. Petersburg Times counsels his readers not to hate the Heisman "because ... Tebow is probably going to lose it" or "because ... Bradford is probably going to win it" (in anticipation of a "change" brought about in Saturday's game).

"Do not hate the Heisman because it is overhyped or because it is statistic-driven or because it is strangely more popular than the Nobel Peace Prize," Shelton writes. "Do not hate it because it is reserved mainly for quarterbacks or running backs from the major conferences. Do not hate it because it rarely achieves its goal of deciding the best player in America. Do not hate it because, somehow, Andre Ware won it."

Here is the reason, Shelton says, to hate the Heisman: "Every year, the voters are forced to decide the winner too darned early."

Shelton thinks the Heisman should be awarded after all the games have been played in January.

And there is a certain logic to his argument that "[t]he movie is still going on, and already, these guys want to toss Academy Awards at the screen."

But, in 2008 at least, I think the curtain is about to come down. And the final scene will be staged in Norman, Oklahoma.

Time to Separate Contenders from Pretenders

If you're a college football fan, you know that the next couple of weeks will be crucial in deciding the teams that play for the BCS national championship in Miami on Jan. 8, 2009.

Conference championships will be played on December 6, and, for some of the conferences, one or both of the teams that will play for the leagues' titles will be decided in the next couple of weeks.

Notably, the Southeastern Conference championship game pairing is already known. The SEC will match top-ranked Alabama against Florida, which is third in every poll except the BCS standings, where Texas (fourth in all the other polls) is ranked third and Florida is ranked fourth.

Alabama (11-0) is idle this weekend but will face in-state rival Auburn (5-6) on Nov. 29. Florida, meanwhile, is 9-1 overall and still has to play its in-state rival, Florida State, on Nov. 29.

Florida also has to play host to The Citadel this weekend. I don't think anyone is seriously entertaining the notion that The Citadel (4-7) has a chance of upsetting the Gators — although college football fans probably don't regard the notion as quite as outlandish today as they almost certainly did last week, before 18th-ranked LSU had to overcome a 31-10 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Troy in Baton Rouge, La.

The assumption is that both the Tide and the Gators will win the rest of their regular-season games, and the winner of their showdown for the SEC title will go on to play in the national championship game.

Clearly, if both Alabama and Florida run the table, that makes the SEC championship game the most playoff-like game in the NCAA's postseason — with the winner advancing to the "big one."

For that not to be the case, something extraordinary has to happen to one or both teams in the next couple of weeks.

It probably isn't likely that Auburn will upset Alabama — but Florida State (7-3) has a decent team this year (in spite of Saturday's loss to Boston College) and is probably capable of giving Florida a competitive game.

But I think Florida State needs to beat 22nd-ranked Maryland this weekend to get some traction for the game against Florida.

Which leads me to the most compelling games that are scheduled to be nationally televised this Saturday:

1. #2 Texas Tech (10-0) at #5 Oklahoma (9-1) — Is there any doubt that this is the weekend's marquee match-up?
   
   The experts agree that, if Tech wins, the Red Raiders will play for a spot in the national championship game when they play for the Big 12 title on Dec. 6.
   
   The assumption is that, after beating Texas, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, the Red Raiders will cruise past 4-7 Baylor the following week — although, frankly, the Baylor game will mean nothing in the race for the Big 12 South title if Tech comes into the game 11-0.
   
   It's hard to refute that logic.
   
   The Bears' only role would be to spoil the Raiders' run for the national title, but they don't appear to have the horses for the task.
   
   On the other hand, if Oklahoma beats Tech and then beats Oklahoma State on Nov. 29, creating a three-way tie with Texas and Texas Tech for the Big 12 South title, the tie will be broken by which team has the highest ranking in the BCS standings.
   
   A two-way tie would be broken based on the outcome of the head-to-head matchup. But a three-way tie complicates things considerably. With everything that will be riding on the resolution of that matter, things clearly could get messy.
   
   The game should be high scoring. Tech is ranked second in total offense, OU is ranked fourth. The nation's #1 and #5 passers — Tech's Graham Harrell and OU's Sam Bradford — will be playing. And neither team has a defensive unit that ranks in the Top 50 in total defense.
   
   However, if OU struggles with its passing game, the Sooners have the nation's 47th-ranked rusher, DeMarco Murray, to provide a change of pace as well as the very vocal support of the home crowd.
   
   The Red Raiders are mostly dependent on their passing game, with players like Michael Crabtree (the hero of the Texas game), Detron Lewis and Eric Morris catching Harrell's passes. But the Sooners are rated 93rd in pass defense.
   
   There should be a lot of drama in Norman, Okla., Saturday night. You can see it on ABC at 7 p.m. (Central).


2. Florida State (7-3) at #22 Maryland (7-3) — If this game wasn't being played at the same time as Tech and OU, I would find it very compelling. And if the OU-Tech game gets out of hand, it's a good backup option.
   
   If Florida State doesn't win this game, I fail to see how they'll be able to snap a two-game losing skid against the third-ranked team in the country the following week.
   
   Florida State has zero chance of playing for the national title. But the Seminoles can clinch at least a share of the ACC Atlantic title by beating the Terps — and they can get some valuable momentum for the game against Florida.
   
   So the Seminoles have plenty of motivation. But recent history isn't on their side. In the last four meetings, the team that lost the previous year was the winner — and Florida State beat Maryland last year, 24-16, so the pattern suggests it's Maryland's turn to win in 2008.
   
   Nevertheless, statistics offer some hope for the Seminoles. Florida State is fifth in total defense while Maryland is tied for 71st in total offense. Florida State is 43rd in total offense; Maryland is 64th in total defense.
   
   The game will be televised on ESPN at 6:45 p.m. (Central).


3. #15 Michigan State (9-2) at #8 Penn State (10-1) — After their one-point loss to Iowa, the Nittany Lions were said to be out of the national title picture.
   
   The truth was, before the Iowa game, most observers were saying the Nittany Lions wouldn't be in the national championship game even if they ran the table.
   
   But Penn State is alive and well in the race for the Rose Bowl.
   
   However, so is Michigan State.
   
   But Michigan State's hopes will depend upon an unlikely upset of Ohio State by woeful Michigan (3-8) earlier in the day (ABC will carry the Ohio State-Michigan game at 11 a.m. Central time),
   
   By the time Michigan State and Penn State kick off at 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC, the outcome of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be known.
   
   Michigan State lost to Ohio State in October, but Penn State did not. The outcome of the Ohio State-Michigan game won't have any meaning for Penn State, but the Nittany Lions will get more competition from the Spartans if the Wolverines win their game.
   
   If nothing else, Penn State, which is ranked fourth in total defense, will have its hands full with Javon Ringer, who is second in the nation in rushing yardage. But Penn State is ranked 18th in total offense, while Michigan State is ranked 66th.


4. #14 Brigham Young (10-1) at #7 Utah (11-0) — Utah beat San Diego State like the proverbial red-headed stepchild, 63-14, on Saturday, but SDSU is the bottom of the barrel in the Mountain West Conference. The level of competition will be decidedly higher this weekend.
   
   And the odds seem to be against Utah playing for the national championship even if the Utes cap an undefeated season with a win over Brigham Young.
   
   BYU lost to TCU in mid-October, and both teams could share the conference championship with Utah if BYU beats Utah and 16th-ranked TCU beats Air Force this weekend. Air Force is out of the race for the conference title, but it was competitive against both BYU and Utah earlier in the year. And the Falcons could keep the Horned Frogs from possibly sharing the conference title with a win in Fort Worth, Texas.
   
   The TCU-Air Force game is scheduled to be televised by Versus at 2:30 p.m. (Central).
   
   If Utah beats BYU, what happens in Fort Worth won't matter — and Utah will retain a chance — albeit a slim one — of sneaking into the national championship game.
   
   But BYU won't be an easy mark. Seven of the last eight games between the schools have been decided by a single score, and recent history suggests that teams win in this series in streaks.
   
   Brigham Young has won the last two meetings. The Cougars beat the Utes last year, 17-10. In 2006, the Cougars won an even closer game, 33-31.
   
   The Utes won in 2005, 41-34. In the most lopsided outcome in recent years, Utah beat BYU in 2004, 52-21. In 2003, Utah won, 3-0. In 2002, Utah took a 13-6 decision.
   
   In 2001, BYU won, 24-21. The Cougars won in 2000, 34-27.
   
   Brigham Young also has the nation's #4 quarterback, Max Hall, and the nation's leading receiver, Austin Collie, which has propelled the Cougars to #17 in total offense. But Utah ranks 11th in total defense.
   
   Utah isn't too shabby in total offense, either — the Utes are 35th in the country. And BYU ranks 54th in total defense.
   
   The game will be televised on The Mtn. at 5 p.m. (Central).


5. Yale (6-3) at Harvard (8-1) — Ordinarily, I wouldn't even consider this game, since it's being played at the same time as Ohio State and Michigan. But Michigan has had a terrible season and isn't likely to give OSU much of a struggle.
   
   But the Yale-Harvard game is a worthwhile option for traditionalists. It's a rivalry of long-standing, and it has some meaning this year. Harvard can win at least a share of the Ivy League championship with a win over Yale, but it needs Brown to lose to Columbia in order to win the championship outright.
   
   Brown is likely to beat Columbia — and, because Brown beat Harvard by two points earlier in the season, the Bears hold the tiebreaker. But Brown will be playing Columbia at the same time as Harvard is playing Yale, so nothing will be decided at that point.
   
   Known as "The Game," the Harvard-Yale series dates to 1875. It's the oldest football rivalry, although the earliest games of the series came at a time when American football was evolving from rugby and the scores were decidedly un-football-like — on Nov. 13, 1875, Harvard won the first game between the two schools, 4-0.
   
   Saturday's game will be the 125th meeting. Yale leads the historical series, 65-51-8, but Harvard has won six of the last seven games.
   
   You can see the game on Versus at 11 a.m. (Central).