There's a Lot Riding on College Football's Rivalries This Year

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Last week was, by far, my worst week predicting the winners of Top 25 football games this season.

But that is what makes college football so exciting — its unpredictability. And that is especially true when you come to this point of the season, when so many rivalry games are being played. And this year those rivalry games all seem to have some bearing on the national championship picture.

There may be no better time of the year, not even New Year's Day, for a college football fan than the Thanksgiving holiday. There are going to be plenty of exciting games between bitter rivals with lots of implications for the winners. Take the Alabama–Auburn game, known informally as the "Iron Bowl." Auburn clearly is not on Alabama's level this year, but Auburn fans would love to deprive Alabama a spot in the national Final Four.

If you're a college football fan, settle in and buckle your seatbelt. It's apt to be a bumpy ride.

Today

• #3 Iowa at Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In recent years, this game has been a Big Ten conference game, but Iowa and Nebraska have been playing each other since 1899. They haven't faced each other every year; this will be their 35th meeting, and Nebraska wins at a 70% clip.
  
  Nebraska has been particularly difficult for Iowa when the game has been played in Lincoln, as it is this year.
  
  But neither team lacks motivation. The Hawkeyes want to be in the national playoff, and the Cornhuskers need the win to become bowl eligible.
  
  I think 11–0 Iowa is focused. I take Iowa.
• #7 Baylor at #15 TCU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I know for a fact that the expectations for this game were pretty high when the season began.
  
  And, for most of the season, it appeared this would be the game that would eliminate one from the national playoff conversation — and propel the other into the heart of it. Baylor (9–1) could still end up in the national title discussion, but it's kind of a long shot now.
  
  What seems more likely is that, when the smoke clears from this football season, the Bears will log their third straight 11–2 record. Perhaps they will achieve a new high–water mark of 12 wins in a season. But I don't think Baylor will end up in college football's Final Four.
  
  For many years, these teams were rivals in the old Southwest Conference. When I was growing up, their games typically were to avoid finishing last in the SWC. They have played each other more than 100 times since 1903, and TCU has had the edge on both campuses, but Baylor has won three of their last four meetings. You have to go back to their SWC days to find the last time Baylor won four out of five against TCU.
  
  But that is what I think will happen. I pick Baylor to win.
• #16 Navy at #21 Houston, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have met only once before — in the Garden State Bowl in December 1980.
  
  Clearly, there isn't much to be learned from a game that was played nearly 35 years ago.
  
  But here's a little trivia. Whenever Navy scores — and the Midshipmen will score, having put at least 40 points on the board five times this year — it will be the first points Navy has ever scored against Houston. The Cougars shut out the Midshipmen in that Garden State Bowl.
  
  There could be a lot of scoring in this game. Houston, too, has scored at least 40 points five times this year.
  
  Something has to give. I will take the home team, Houston, in an upset special.
• Oregon State at #18 Oregon, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Oregon enters this rivalry game with a seven–game winning streak against the Beavers — and appears likely to make it eight in a row. The 2–9 Beavers probably can't wait for the season to be over. The 8–3 Ducks probably have a New Year's Day bowl bid in mind — or at least one on New Year's Eve.
  
  They'll get that opportunity. I pick Oregon.

Saturday

• #1 Clemson at South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Clemson–South Carolina game is known as the Palmetto Bowl. As rivalries go, this one has to be one of the easiest on the students since the campuses are only about 130 miles apart.
  
  This will be a better test for Clemson than a lot of people think. Sure, South Carolina is 3–8, and Clemson has won about 60% of their meetings, but the Tigers have lost in their last three trips to the South Carolina campus.
  
  And, as I have often said, rivalry games are different from ordinary games. The teams involved would get pumped up even if they were winless on the season,
  
  The Tigers should be wary of this game — and the ACC title game with North Carolina next week. My advice would be to stay focused. I think Clemson will win as long as the Tigers stay focused.
• #2 Alabama at Auburn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: As I just observed, the Iron Bowl, in some past incarnations, has had more on the line for both teams than it has this year.
  
  Alabama clearly is in the running for a national playoff berth, but the Crimson Tide must get past first Auburn and then Florida before returning to the playoffs.
  
  So often the records don't matter in these rivalry games. And I could see Auburn rising up to beat Alabama just because bitter rivals like these only care about beating the other. The fact that it would take Alabama out of the national playoff would be a bonus.
  
  Having said that, though, I don't think the Tigers will be able to pull it off. I pick Alabama.
• #4 Notre Dame at #13 Stanford, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams played for the first time when Knute Rockne was coaching the Irish — in the 1925 Rose Bowl. The Irish won that game, and they've won about two–thirds of their games with Stanford in all.
  
  But Stanford won the last three times the game was played at Stanford — and could be in position to knock Notre Dame out of the national playoff.
  
  It's only been an annual event since the late '90s. The teams met from time to time in the preceding 70 years. More often than not, their games have been close, decided by a single score. The rankings suggest this one will be close, too.
  
  And based on those rankings, my prediction probably qualifies as an upset special. I'm not really sure that it is one, but I will list it that way. I am going to take Stanford at home.
• #5 Oklahoma at #9 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: They call the OU–OSU game Bedlam. Seldom has it had the national significance of OU's games with Texas or Nebraska, but — and I speak from experience here — their annual clashes (and they've been playing since 1912) always stir up deep emotions within the people of that state.
  
  Now, the fact is that OU nearly always wins the game. Well, the Sooners have won nearly 80% of 'em. OSU actually beat OU last year, but the Cowboys face some long odds in hoping that lightning strikes twice. Only five times in the last century have the Cowboys beaten the Sooners in consecutive seasons.
  
  The latest weather forecast I heard indicated that Stillwater could be in for some snow and ice by gametime. That will make it fun for the folks watching at home, but could be rather unpleasant for the Okies in attendance.
  
  I pick Oklahoma to stay on course for the national playoff.
• Penn State at #6 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: After 29 meetings, in a series that dates back to 1914, the teams are even at 14–14–1.
  
  Michigan State beats Penn State at home more than 60% of the time. The 7–4 Nittany Lions are swooning, having dropped their last two games. Besides, they are 0–3 against ranked teams this season.
  
  All those factors aside, the Spartans have their eyes on being where Ohio State was last year — the last team standing after college football's playoffs.
  
  I don't see how Penn State can derail the 10–1 Spartans, whose only setback was a one–point loss at Nebraska.
  
  I pick Michigan State.
• #8 Ohio State at #12 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: A great rivalry. So many memories. This will be the 99th edition of this rivalry, and the teams are dead even with 47 wins apiece and four ties.
  
  Last week the Buckeyes lost for the first time since Sept. 6, 2014, when they lost to Virginia Tech. You have to go back to the 2013 season to find the last time Ohio State lost back–to–back games — but those were both postseason games, the Big Ten title game (against Michigan State) and the Orange Bowl (against Clemson). You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last time Ohio State lost back–to–back games in the regular season.
  
  That also happens to be the last year that Michigan beat Ohio State. This is the kind of history Michigan is fighting against in this game.
  
  But this is a different Michigan team, a better team than Michigan has had for awhile — which leads me to believe the game will be a good one. Historically, Michigan has a slight edge in the Big House, but I don't think Michigan is quite at Ohio State's level — yet. I think it will be close, but I pick Ohio State to win.
• #14 Florida State at #10 Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: So many great memories of so many great finishes in this series over the years. It almost got to the point where one expected something amazing to happen when these two got together.
  
  Florida's been in a bit of a tailspin in recent years, but the Gators are back in the rankings and set to face off with either Alabama or Ole Miss in the SEC title game.
  
  But first there is that little matter of a rivalry game with the Seminoles.
  
  Historically the Gators have won about 60% of the time, but the Seminoles have had the upper hand recently, winning four of the last five.
  
  And Florida State has won the last two times the game was played in Gainesville.
  
  This is a tough one to pick, but I'll take Florida.
• #11 North Carolina at North Carolina State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: This series goes back to 1902, and for the most part, North Carolina tends to win, no matter where the game is played.
  
  N.C. State has enjoyed periods of supremacy — but not lately. The Wolfpack have lost six of the last eight games they have played against the Tar Heels — and likely will lose this one as well.
  
  But 10–1 North Carolina needs to remain focused and not be distracted by thoughts about the ACC title game coming up next week against top—ranked Clemson. The 7–4 Wolfpack will take advantage of mental lapses.
  
  I think North Carolina will win.
• Illinois vs. #17 Northwestern at Soldier Field in Chicago, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This series goes back to 1892. Illinois is the all–time leader and has a 2–0 record in games played on neutral fields.
  
  The 5–6 Illini need this win to be bowl eligible. The 9–2 Wildcats are already bowl eligible; and, with the Big Ten title beyond their reach (thanks to earlier losses to Michigan and Iowa), Northwestern really doesn't seem to have a lot to play for.
  
  Still, I will pick Northwestern to win.
• #19 Ole Miss at #23 Mississippi State, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Ole Miss has dominated the Egg Bowl rivalry, winning more than 58% of the time.
  
  And, in fact, Ole Miss has won two of the last three — and could conceivably share the SEC West crown if the Rebels win this game and Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday.
  
  But the Rebels have lost five straight at Mississippi State. The last time Ole Miss won at Mississippi State was Nov. 27, 2003.
  
  Mississippi State is on a roll, winning five of its last six contests, including a one–point win over Arkansas exactly one week after Arkansas beat Ole Miss by one point.
  
  I'll go with Mississippi State in an upset special.
• #20 Washington State at Washington, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: The 5–6 Huskies come into this game needing a win to be bowl eligible. The 8–3 Cougars have already qualified but can't possibly overtake Stanford in the Pac–12 North. The Cougars have a lot of momentum. They have won six of their last seven games — that one loss was to Stanford, and that makes all the difference.
  
  So the Cougars may or may not feel as if they have much to motivate them, other than intrastate pride. The Huskies will definitely have motivation, so — in yet another upset special — I pick Washington to beat Washington State for the sixth time in the last seven years.
• #22 UCLA at Southern Cal, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I always enjoyed watching this game on TV when I was growing up, especially after my family got its first color television.
  
  The UCLA–Southern Cal game was always so colorful, just like the Rose Bowl always seemed to be. I never really cared who won — as they used to say in my little hometown in Arkansas, I had no dog in that hunt — but I really liked watching the game because of all the color. When I think of the cliched reference to the pageantry of college sports, it is the USC–UCLA game that comes to my mind.
  
  And I liked watching the marching bands. Why don't they show the marching bands on TV anymore? I guess they do occasionally — but not often.
  
  This will be the 85th edition of this crosstown rivalry. UCLA has won the last three. Southern Cal was ranked last week and would still be ranked if the Trojans hadn't lost to Oregon.
  
  I predict that UCLA will win the game and secure at least a share of the Pac–12 South crown.
• Western Michigan at #24 Toledo, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: Toledo has beaten Western Michigan five straight times.
  
  In spite of a 1–3 and their current two–game losing streak, the Broncos won five straight in the middle of the season to become bowl eligible.
  
  But it is hard to imagine a scenario in which they can defeat Toledo on the road. Western Michigan has won at Toledo only twice in the last 26 years.
  
  I think 9–1 Toledo will win.
• UConn vs. #25 Temple, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: UConn surprised everyone with its upset victory over Houston last week. Now the 6–5 Huskies are bowl eligible.
  
  Can the Huskies make it two in a row against ranked teams? Well, the last time they visited Templer, two years ago, they won by a touchdown. Of course, Temple was 2–10 that year. The Owls are much better this year.
  
  I will go with Temple.

Last week: 11–8

Upset specials last week: 0–1

Season: 170–46

Upset specials overall: 5–13

A Thanksgiving Thrill

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I've been a Green Bay Packer fan just about all my life, ever since I started collecting football cards in first grade.

I was born on Thanksgiving so every once in awhile, my birthday falls on Thanksgiving, as it did this year. But the Packers don't always play on Thanksgiving — nor, for that matter, do they always play on my birthday when it falls on a Sunday.

This year, however, they played the Chicago Bears tonight, which is both Thanksgiving and my birthday, in order to honor Brett Favre by inducting him into the Packers' Ring of Honor. (Actually, the game is still in progress as I write this so referring to it in the past tense really isn't appropriate, is it?).

And one of the highlights for me — probably the greatest highlight for me — was to see Bart Starr and Brett Favre embrace each other on the turf of Lambeau Field. My two favorite quarterbacks of all time.

I have known for a long time what a struggle it was for Starr to be able to be in Green Bay. He's been battling the effects of some pretty severe strokes, but he looked pretty good tonight.

The two quarterbacks could hardly be more different, I suppose.

I have always admired Bart Starr, going back to when I was a kid. He was the kind of guy who is worthy of admiration. He didn't seek the spotlight the way so many players do today. He didn't put up gaudy numbers — except on the scoreboard, where he was the perfect captain for Vince Lombardi's offense. Lombardi devised the game plan, and Starr carried it out. All he did was win.

Favre was a free spirit, a winner who made the people around him winners by sheer force of will. Favre was a force of nature, refusing to be benched during his phenomenal consecutive games played streak even if you thought there was no way he could be playing.

I suppose my ideal quarterback would be a combination of Bart Starr and Brett Favre.

But since that will never happen, I'll settle for the next best thing. That was what I got tonight.

For this I am truly thankful.

No Mas

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"It would require a deal of convincing to shake the conviction here that Duran had to be sick or injured because Roberto Duran was not, is not and never could be a quitter."

Red Smith

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The Belfast Telegraph recently published a list of the 10 greatest fighters of all time.

The sixth–greatest fighter, the Telegraph said, was Roberto Duran, and he beat the fifth–greatest fighter of all time, Sugar Ray Leonard, for the welterweight title in Montreal on June 20, 1980.

They met in a rematch in New Orleans on this day in 1980 in what became one of the most famous fights ever. It is known to history as the "No Mas fight" because that is what Duran said to the referee at the end of the eighth round, indicating that he was conceding the fight. In case you aren't fluent in Spanish — and I certainly am not — "no mas" is Spanish for "no more."

After the fight, Duran tried to save some face by insisting that he was suffering from stomach cramps, but I always thought it was because he just couldn't reconcile the Sugar Ray he fought in New Orleans with the fighter he fought in Montreal five months earlier.

It was a moment that really defined both men.

My memory of Leonard is that he was like Muhammad Ali, light on his feet in the ring, always moving. But Leonard, in the face of Duran's prefight taunting, adopted more of a flat–footed style and went toe to toe with Duran in that first fight. He wanted to beat Duran at his own game. He didn't. Duran won by a decision.

Five months later, they met again in New Orleans, and the old Sugar Ray appeared to be back.

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Gone was the plodding flat–footed style. It was like watching an entirely different fighter in the ring, one who looked like that other Sugar Ray Leonard but certainly didn't fight like him.

Apparently Duran was baffled by it as well. He shouldn't have been, though — if he prepared for that first fight by observing footage of Leonard in the ring. That Leonard was back.

Leonard was always the good guy in the equation. Duran was the bad guy, known at one time as the meanest man in boxing. He was said to have knocked out a woman and a horse.

Boxing is a macho sport, and Duran, with his cold, demonic eyes, was the most macho man in boxing 35 years ago. My guess at the time was that Leonard didn't just want to win the fight. He wanted to seize the crown of most macho fighter from Duran as well.

I didn't see either fight in progress; I saw them after the fact, in replays on TV, but what stands out in my mind about that first fight was that, even before it was over, the announcers were talking about how they could see a rematch coming in the final rounds, when Leonard tried desperately to retake ground he lost to Duran in the early rounds — resuming the style with which he had succeeded in the past. But it was too late.

Not long after he lost the fight, Leonard actively pursued a rematch. Duran had been celebrating his victory in New York, partying and overeating. Leonard felt a key to winning the rematch would be to have it as soon as possible — before Duran could lose the celebratory weight he had gained.

Nevertheless, by the time of the fight, both men were in great condition.

Millions of dollars were offered to both fighters for a rematch, and the agreement was reached. The fight would be in the New Orleans Superdome.

Once the fight was in progress, it seemed pretty even — until the seventh round, when Leonard began to openly taunt Duran, and Duran had no answer for it. He seemed lost, and Leonard appeared to be in control.

It was a part of fighting that a lot of people overlook — the psychological fight. Sure you hear people speak about fighters getting inside each other's heads, but I think a lot of people just see that as descriptive speech, allegorical — when it is much more accurate than most people probably want to believe. On this night in 1980, Leonard wasn't toying with Duran. He was implementing part of his strategy, just as he did when he used the bolo punch.

He was turning the tables on Duran, making him the object of the laughter instead of the other way around. For five months, Leonard had felt as if people were snickering at him over his loss to Duran. He wanted to make Duran the object of the ridicule he had been feeling — and probably imagining. I don't recall hearing anyone — in my personal conversations or in boxing programs I saw on television — who thought any less of Leonard for going the distance with Roberto Duran and losing.

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In the eighth round, Duran had had enough. He looked at the referee and said, "No mas."

On this night in 1980, Leonard avenged his loss. Duran couldn't even go the distance. Leonard frustrated him, bewildered him. He got inside his head. It was not allegorical. It was definitely real.

The outcome was unheard of. Boxers just don't quit. They'll let their heads get beaten to mush, and they still won't quit.

Yet the most macho fighter on the planet quit. And when he did, everyone forgot his triumph over Leonard five months earlier. Few people remember it today. If you speak to a boxing fan about Leonard and Duran, the phrase "no mas" comes springing to mind, not images from that night in Montreal.

Rounding the Stretch

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I apologize if any of my readers are growing tired of seeing Razorback photos here, but I am an Arkansas graduate, and I'm so proud of the Hogs for beating LSU last week.

As I observed last week, Arkansas almost never beats LSU in consecutive seasons — since that would, by definition, require the Hogs to win on the road, which they rarely do when the home team is LSU. But last week, they did it, and they didn't even need overtime in a 31–14 romp. I should have picked them for an upset special. But I admit that I didn't think they could do it. Boy, am I glad I was wrong!

I really figured the Hogs, who became bowl eligible with the win, would be in the Top 25 this week. But they aren't.

I bet they will be ranked if they beat Mississippi State tonight.

There is also a slim — very slim — chance that Arkansas could share the SEC West title. If Arkansas and Ole Miss win out and Alabama loses to Auburn next week, the three teams will tie for first in the SEC West. Ordinarily, I suppose, the tiebreaker would be the results of their head–to–head confrontations, but Arkansas beat Ole Miss and lost to Alabama, Alabama lost to Ole Miss and beat Arkansas, Ole Miss lost to Arkansas and beat Alabama. There is no advantage for anyone.

I recall a similar situation in the days of the old Southwest Conference. Arkansas, Texas and Texas A&M all tied for the title; the winner of the SWC always went to the Cotton Bowl, but the tie was not broken by the head–to–head results. Arkansas beat A&M and lost to Texas, Texas lost to A&M and beat Arkansas, A&M lost to Arkansas and beat Texas. The next tiebreaker was simply to let the team whose last appearance in a Cotton Bowl was more remote than the others be the champion. Consequently, Arkansas went to the Cotton Bowl that year.

These days, conferences have all sorts of tiebreaking tiers. If head–to–head doesn't do it, they'll go into all kinds of statistical gymnastics. When those have been exhausted, they turn to a coin flip.

Actually, in the current SEC scenario, LSU could conceivably be one of the teams to tie for first. The Tigers, who lost to Alabama, play Ole Miss today; if they beat the Rebels, they could replace Ole Miss in a three–way tie, but they lost to the two teams with whom they would be tied — so, for all intents and purposes, if Ole Miss loses today, Alabama clinches a berth in the SEC title game against Florida.

Today

• Wake Forest at #1 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Clemson has won eight of its last nine games with Wake Forest.
  
  With a 3–7 record, Wake Forest seems like an unlikely candidate to topple Clemson, and, with only Wake Forest and South Carolina remaining on the season schedule, Clemson looks like a virtual lock to finish the season unbeaten. But the Tigers should not let thoughts of their likely opponent in the ACC title game, North Carolina, distract them. They have to be focused.
  
  I think they will be. Clemson should win.
• #9 Michigan State at #2 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This probably looked a lot more attractive to broadcasters when the season began. But Michigan State stumbled against Nebraska a couple of weeks ago so it is not the battle of the unbeatens that the networks probably assumed it would be.
  
  Even Ohio State has failed to live up to expectations. The Buckeyes are undefeated, but they have underperformed against the likes of Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota and Northern Illinois.
  
  Michigan State has underperformed as well. The Spartans have struggled on the road — losing to Nebraska and barely getting past Michigan and Rutgers.
  
  The Buckeyes are 14–4 against the Spartans since 1991.
  
  I think it is probably pretty even so I will go with the home team, Ohio State.
• Charleston Southern at #3 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There really isn't any point in going into this, is there?
  
  Alabama should roll.
• #10 Baylor at #4 Oklahoma State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Can Baylor get back into the national championship conversation? Doubtful, but if it is going to happen, a win at Stillwater this week will be necessary.
  
  And that's a tall order. Baylor has lost the last 11 times it has played in Stillwater. You have to go back to 1939 — more than 75 years ago — to find Baylor's last win at Oklahoma State.
  
  Can Baylor end its losing skid in Stillwater? Possibly, but I doubt it. I expect Oklahoma State to win and stay on track for next week's showdown with Oklahoma — in which the Big 12 title and a possible berth in the nation's Final Four could well be on the line.
• Boston College at #5 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This has been a streaky series in recent years. Boston College won six in a row from 2001 to 2007, then Notre Dame has won the last four. Their last meeting was in 2012 so anyone on either side who took part in the last meeting would have to be a senior today — and there ain't many seniors left in collegiate athletics anymore. My guess is that practically no one wearing a uniform on either sideline took part in Notre Dame's 21–6 victory at Boston College on Nov. 10, 2012.
  
  Boston College appears to be ill equipped to snap its losing streak against Notre Dame. BC is 3–7 overall and winless in ACC play.
  
  The 9–1 Irish can expect a challenge from Stanford next week — but not from Boston College this week. I pick Notre Dame.
• Purdue at #6 Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The first time these teams met was in 1910. They have played 85 times in all, and Purdue actually leads the series. Of course, many of the Boilermakers' wins came in the '60s and '70s.
  
  Iowa has won seven of its last nine games with Purdue, and this game looks like a huge mismatch. Iowa is 10–0; Purdue is 2–8.
  
  But Purdue has been somewhat deceptive. Most of the time, the Boilermakers have been hard pressed to score 20 points or more — and they've been even harder pressed to hold opponents under 20 points. Yet somehow they scored 55 points on Nebraska.
  
  So beware, Iowa. Purdue is capable of rising up every once in awhile. You can ask Nebraska — when you travel to Lincoln next week.
  
  Will you still be unbeaten? I think you will. I pick Iowa.
• #11 TCU at #7 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When the season began, this game had the potential to be even bigger than it is.
  
  But TCU, after an 8–0 start, got slapped around by Oklahoma State, then barely got past Kansas. The Horned Frogs are staggering; with a date with Baylor looming next week, TCU faces the real possibility of ending the season with three losses in the final four regular–season games. The Frogs have already fallen from the Top 10. Three losses in the final four games might knock them out of the Top 25 entirely.
  
  OU lost its annual grudge match with Texas but has rolled in every game since. Baylor, in last week's game, was the first team since Texas to hold the Sooners under 52 points.
  
  And Oklahoma is 5–0 at home this year. The TCU team that struggled with Kansas last week is not up to the challenge of facing the Sooners in Norman. I take Oklahoma.
• Florida Atlantic at #8 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I refer you to my Charleston Southern–Alabama evaluation.
  
  Florida will win.
• #12 North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is an old rivalry. The first game between these schools was played in Roanoke, Va., in 1902. It was a 0–0 tie.
  
  They've played 31 times since, and Virginia Tech has won about two–thirds of the time.
  
  But I am sure that rarely has North Carolina been the ranked team and Virginia Tech has been the unranked one.
  
  To say it has been a rough year for Tech is an understatement. Tech is 5–5 and needs to win at least one of its last two games to qualify for a bowl. Considering that next week's opponent is woeful Virginia, it seems likely that Tech will qualify. But a win over a ranked team would look good on Tech's postseason resume — especially since Tech is 0–2 against ranked teams this year.
  
  The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are riding a nine—game winning streak — and might be a lot tougher to put away in the ACC title game than Clemson is inclined to believe. They've scored at least 41 points in six of those nine games — and they have scored 50 points or more four times.
  
  I pick North Carolina.
• #13 Houston at UConn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Houston has one of the best teams it has had in years. UConn is a basketball school, plain and simple.
  
  I have to take Houston.
• #14 Michigan at Penn State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Michigan is trying to break a three–game losing streak at Penn State.
  
  For serious college football fans, this is a clash between two great college football programs, stirring up memories of Paterno and Schembechler — even though I don't believe they ever faced each other.
  
  The 7–3 Lions could pose a problem for 8–2 Michigan. The Wolverines might get caught looking ahead to next week's rivalry game with Ohio State. In an upset special, I pick Penn State.
• Cal at #15 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford comes into this game with a five–game winning streak.
  
  Cal, though, has qualified for a bowl — its first since 2011 — and the Bears might be feeling a little feisty. A win over Stanford could get them a spot in a premiere bowl — in addition to bringing bragging rights back to the Cal campus for the first time since 2009.
  
  But I expect Stanford to win this game at home.
• Chattanooga at #16 Florida State, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: For the third time this week, I really have nothing to say about this one. Florida State is the clear choice.
• #17 LSU at #25 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: In a series that goes back to 1902, LSU beats Ole Miss 60% of the time.
  
  LSU's advantage has been even more pronounced since the dawn of the 21st century. Since 2000 the Tigers have won 11 of 15 meetings.
  
  But they lost the last time they played in Oxford.
  
  Even though both teams are ranked, it has to be a disappointing season for both. Before the season began, expectations for this game probably were quite high as both teams were mentioned as possible SEC West champions. LSU comes in 7–2 and Ole Miss comes in 7–3, which are respectable records, but both teams have two losses in SEC play and appear unlikely to share the SEC West title with Alabama — unless the Crimson Tide falters against Auburn next week.
  
  This should be a good game — and, when it is a close call, as this one is, I usually go with the home team, but I'm taking the visitor this time, LSU.
• UCLA at #18 Utah, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This is the 14th meeting between these schools, and UCLA has won more than three–fourths of the games that were played before.
  
  Utah has managed to win about one–third of the games played in Utah, including two of the last three that were played there. In fact, when you realize that UCLA won the first eight games played between these schools, the inescapable conclusion is that Utah is on the rise in this series.
  
  Utah's national ranking seems to confirm that. I pick Utah.
• #19 Navy at Tulsa, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This is the third time these teams have met, and the visitor prevailed in the previous two.
  
  That suggests that Navy should win this one, and that makes sense considering that the Midshipmen are ranked.
  
  But the 5–5 Golden Hurricane might complicate things. After all, Tulsa only needs to win one of its last two games to qualify for a bowl. Tulsa doesn't have to get the win against Navy. It could get it next week against 3–7 Tulane, but a win over Navy would look so much better on Tulsa's postseason resume.
  
  Not going to happen. I pick Navy.
• #20 Northwestern at #21 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Historically this series belongs to Wisconsin. Over the years the Badgers have won more than 62% of the time.
  
  But the Wildcats have had the upper hand in recent seasons, winning four of the last seven.
  
  However, Northwestern has lost the last four times the Wildcats have played at Wisconsin.
  
  It ought to be a good game. Too bad only the folks in Big Ten country will get to see it. I pick Wisconsin at home.
• #22 Southern Cal at #23 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Oregon is back in the Top 25 following its upset win over Stanford. Likewise, Southern Cal is back in the Top 25, riding a four–game winning streak.
  
  But one will lose today, and that team likely will fall from the Top 25 next week.
  
  I guess the recent momentum in the series belongs to Oregon, winner of three of the last four encounters, but the all–time leader — by a 2–to–1 margin — is Southern Cal.
  
  It really should be a good game, but I will pick Oregon at home — even though Southern Cal has won there more than 60% of the time.
• Colorado at #24 Washington State, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Washington State lost the only other time the Cougars hosted Colorado, and this looks like a perfect time to get even. Colorado is 4–7 while Washington State, at 7–3, is bound for a bowl somewhere.
  
  I think Washington State will win at home.

Last week: 16–5

Upset specials last week: 1–0

Season: 159–38

Upset specials overall: 5–12

Speculation About Who Will Win the National Title

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Well, we're approaching the end of the regular season.

As usual, football season has flown by — and, while I know the pros will be playing through December, followed by the playoffs in January — and we'll be getting about three dozen college bowl games plus the national championship game — it still signals the end of a time of the year I have always loved and always miss when it is gone.

For the next several weeks, I suppose, there will be rampant speculation about who will be in college football's Final Four. In fact, it has already started. I guess it never really stops.

The New York Times, for example, writes that the Big 12, home of the Baylor Bears and Oklahoma Sooners, who square off in Waco tonight, is likely to be left out again.

"If No. 1 Clemson wins the Atlantic Coast Conference, No. 2 Alabama the Southeastern Conference and No. 3 Ohio State the Big Ten, and if No. 4 Notre Dame wins the rest of its independent schedule," writes Victor Mather, "they are likely to be the four teams in the playoff."

USA TODAY ran a simulation and concluded that Alabama, not Clemson, would win the national title. Some things never change, huh?

It was an interesting simulation. Clemson won more often than anyone else, but Alabama beat Clemson head to head. As John Ewing wrote, "Clemson is the most likely champion, but Alabama is the better team."

Which is a concession to the fact that footballs take crazy bounces, and games don't always come out the way you think they will.

If you want to compare the teams, they will be playing at the same time on different networks this afternoon. Make sure you know where your remote is!

Idle: #23 Wisconsin

Today

• #1 Clemson at Syracuse, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams first met in the 1996 Gator Bowl, then they didn't meet again until 2013, when they were in the same conference. Clemson lost that Gator Bowl but has won the last two years.
  
  It really doesn't look too hopeful for 3–6 Syracuse in this game, either — and you would have to figure that Clemson, having just ascended to the top of the AP poll, would be vulnerable. The Tigers might well be — but not today and not against this team. I pick Clemson.
• #2 Ohio State at Illinois, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Ohio State dominates this series no matter where the game is played, but, in fact, the Buckeyes have been even more successful on the road against Illinois.
  
  Ohio State has won 75% of the time on the Illini's turf, and they have won the last 10 times the teams have faced each other there. Illinois' last home victory over Ohio State came on Oct. 12, 1991.
  
  No reason to expect anything different from 5–4 Illinois against 9–0 Ohio State. I pick Ohio State.
• #3 Alabama at #20 Mississippi State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Alabama has won seven straight against Mississippi State, and over the years the Crimson Tide has routinely beaten MSU — more than 80% of the time.
  
  In recent years, Mississippi State has been ranked when the Alabama game came around. But 'Bama has won seven in a row — and 12 of the last 14.
  
  That's dominance. And, while I know that Ole Miss finally got the Alabama monkey off its back earlier in the season, only one of those is permitted per season. I'll take Alabama.
• #12 Oklahoma at #4 Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Until Baylor plays TCU the day after Thanksgiving, I guess this qualifies as the game of the year in the Big 12.
  
  And it ought to be a good one.
  
  The 8–1 Sooners' only loss was in their annual shootout with Texas. The Longhorns have been struggling this year, but, as I observed at the time, the OU–Texas game really is one of those games in which the records do not matter.
  
  Oklahoma won its first 19 games against the Bears, but Baylor has won three of the last four and has its eyes on the national championship playoff in January. There is plenty of motivation in this game since the Sooners obviously have their eyes on a national championship playoff berth as well — and a win over Baylor would go a long way toward securing that.
  
  I pick Baylor, but I think it will be close.
• #5 Oklahoma State at Iowa State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Iowa State seldom has a competitive football team so it shouldn't come as a surprise that Oklahoma State has won six of its last eight meetings with the Cyclones.
  
  The Cyclones do play better against the Cowboys when the game is Iowa State's turf, but I don't think even that will help the 3–6 Cyclones.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.
• Wake Forest at #6 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This is a fairly new series, with these teams having played twice in the last four years. Notre Dame won both games.
  
  It is hard to imagine a scenario in which the 3–6 Demon Deacons can win this game. They could qualify for a bowl if they win their last three games — all of which are against teams that are currently ranked or have been ranked recently (including top–ranked Clemson next week). It is a daunting assignment.
  
  I pick Notre Dame.
• Oregon at #7 Stanford, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Historically, Stanford wins this game nearly 60% of the time, but, in recent years, when Oregon was a national title contender, the Ducks have been more successful. In fact, since 2002, Oregon is 10–3 against Stanford.
  
  But the Ducks enter this game 6–3. Michigan State and Utah upended them in September, and Washington State beat the Ducks in overtime last month.
  
  Meanwhile, Stanford has bounced back after its opening weekend loss to Northwestern. I take Stanford.
• Minnesota at #8 Iowa, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Minnesota leads the all–time series, but Iowa has the upper hand at home, where the Hawkeyes tend to beat the Gophers about 55% of the time.
  
  Iowa has been dominating the series in the 21st century, too. Since (and including) their meeting in 2000 (which was won by Minnesota), the Hawkeyes have been victorious two–thirds of the time.
  
  The Gophers have plenty of motivation. At 4–5, they need to win two of their last three games to qualify for a bowl. Unfortunately for them, two of those three games are against teams that are currently in the Top 25 — and Minnesota is 0–4 against ranked teams this season.
  
  Make that 0–5. I pick Iowa.
• Arkansas at #9 LSU, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I'd love to see my alma mater win this game and secure a bowl bid, but the Razorbacks blanked the Tigers last year, and Arkansas almost never beats LSU in back–to–back years. That, of course, would require them to win in Baton Rouge, which is where they play this year. Arkansas has only won in Baton Rouge twice. It is safe to say I'm not expecting the Razorbacks to win.
  
  I expect LSU to win.
• #10 Utah at Arizona, 9 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Before the season began, this game probably looked intriguing. But Arizona has struggled this year. The 5–5 Wildcats come into this game mired in a three–game losing streak, and they have given up at least 31 points 70% of the time.
  
  The 8–1 Utes have only given up 31 points or more once — in their loss to Southern Cal last month.
  
  Arizona might keep it close through the first half, but I expect Utah to prevail.
• #11 Florida at South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Florida has already punched its ticket for the SEC Championship game next month. The Gators are 6–1 in SEC, and South Carolina is their last conference foe in 2015.
  
  The Gators hold the tiebreakers over everyone else in the SEC East, and the Gamecocks can't possibly tie Florida for first place, even if they win this game.
  
  Which they won't. I pick Florida.
• Kansas at #13 TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: TCU's loss to Oklahoma State last week was disappointing for TCU fans, whose rallying cry had been "Fear the Frog!"
  
  That is probably what Kansas should be doing — fearing the Frog — for TCU hasn't lost consecutive games since 2013 — and then it was to a couple of good football teams, Kansas State and Baylor. Oklahoma State qualifies as a good football team, but winless Kansas doesn't. The Jayhawks had a few good seasons a decade ago, but they have secured their seventh straight losing season.
  
  I expect TCU to be feeling better by midafternoon.
• Maryland at #14 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN 2: These teams played each other five teams by 1950, then didn't play again until Maryland joined the Big Ten. Last year's game was their first in more than 60 years, and the Spartans won by three touchdowns.
  
  Maryland really doesn't figure to put up much of a fight. The Terps are 2–7 and winless in Big Ten play. It's going to stay that way. I pick Michigan State.
• #15 Michigan at Indiana, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: You have to go back to 1987 to find the last time Indiana beat Michigan in football. That is 19 straight wins for the Wolverines, who appear likely to win this game simply because Michigan always beats Indiana, in good years and bad.
  
  This is a good year for the Wolverines so far, and I expect Michigan to win convincingly.
• #25 Memphis at #16 Houston, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Most folks expected this to be a battle of unbeaten teams, but Navy kept the Memphis Tigers from holding up their end of the bargain with a 45–20 triumph last week.
  
  Houston will wrap up the regular season with a game against Navy. That could be a pretty impressive game, especially if the Cougars beat Memphis.
  
  And I do expect Houston to win at home.
• Miami (Fla.) at #17 North Carolina, 2:30 p.m. Central on ESPNU: This will be the 19th meeting in this series, and both teams have won nine of the previous 18.
  
  The 8–1 Tar Heels steamrolled Duke last week — and on paper the 6–3 Hurricanes look like a good challenge, but the truth is that Miami has been erratic in 2015. The same team that knocked off Duke by a field goal got crushed by Clemson, 58–0, the week before.
  
  Even though Miami has won four of the last five times these schools have met, I'm going to take North Carolina.
• Washington State at #18 UCLA, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: UCLA has a winning record on both campuses, but the Bruins have been particularly dominant on their own field, winning more than 70% of the time.
  
  The Bruins come into this game having beaten Washington State five straight times. But the Cougars could be a problem for the Bruins. They lost to Stanford by only two points a couple of weeks ago, and they snapped an eight–game losing streak against Oregon.
  
  The Cougars could very well win this one; in fact, I think I will make Washington State an upset special.
• North Carolina State at #19 Florida State, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: The 6–3 Wolfpack might give the unsuspecting Seminoles fits. N.C. State looked a lot more imposing in September, when the Wolfpack boasted an undefeated record. Then October came, and the Wolfpack lost three of four.
  
  But Florida State has now lost two of its last three.
  
  Even so, the Seminoles have beaten the Wolfpack in six of their last eight meetings, and the Seminoles win nearly 80% of the time when they host the Wolfpack.
  
  I'll take Florida State.
• #21 Temple at South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This is only the second meeting between these schools. The first was at Temple in 2012, and Temple won.
  
  South Florida is 5–4 and could be a problem for Temple — but I think Temple will take care of business.
• SMU at #22 Navy, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This series has been played a lot longer than you probably think. These schools first met in 1930, and the Mustangs reeled off four wins in the first five meetings — including a 32–28 win over Navy in Roger Staubach's Heisman–winning season.
  
  But Navy has won eight of the last nine contests. SMU hasn't beaten Navy since 1998 — which also happens to be the last time the Mustangs won at Navy.
  
  In theory, SMU could end both streaks this week. But the Mustangs won't. I pick Navy.
• Purdue at #24 Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: It wasn't so long ago that Purdue beat Northwestern regularly and routinely.
  
  But Northwestern has won five of the last eight meetings with Purdue, and the Boilermakers are 2–7 and coming off a big loss to Illinois. The folks on the Purdue campus probably can't wait for basketball season to start.
  
  I am certain Northwestern will win.

Last week: 14–8

Upset specials last week: 1–3

Season: 143–33

Upset specials overall: 4–12

Gone at Last, Gone at Last ...

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"Gone at last, gone at last
Gone at last, gone at last
I've had a long streak of that bad luck
But I'm praying it's gone at last."

Paul Simon, 'Gone at Last' (1975)

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I don't often get the chance to brag about one of my upset specials. In fact, until last weekend, I had gone several weeks without one of my upset specials paying off.

But last weekend one did.

I picked Miami (Fla.) to beat Duke, and the Hurricanes did. That triumph is a bit tarnished by bad officiating, though. You see, Miami won the game on an eight–lateral, 75–yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Now the ACC has suspended the officials who worked that game for blowing the call.

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Even so, though, I've been humming Paul Simon's tune "Gone At Last" ever since that prediction came through. Maybe I will do even better this week. After all, I'm picking four upset specials.

Today

• Northern Illinois at #20 Toledo, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams met for the first time less than four months after Apollo 11's historic trip to the moon.
  
  Toledo was the winner on that first occasion, and Toledo has won about 68% of the time — but Northern Illinois has had the upper hand in the last five meetings. Northern Illinois is no pushover; the Huskies lost to top–ranked Ohio State by a touchdown on Sept. 19, and they bring a 5–3 record into the game in addition to their winning streak.
  
  But I think undefeated Toledo will prevail at home.

Thursday

• #2 Baylor at Kansas State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Kansas State leads the all–time series, but Baylor has won five of the last seven meetings — and the last three in a row. Iowa State held Baylor to 45 points — a season low for the Bears — last weekend. Perhaps the Wildcats can do even better, but their offense would the best production against the Bears to date — and that wouldn't have been enough to beat Baylor last Saturday.
  
  Besides, 3–4 Kansas State is mired in a four–game losing streak. The Wildcats might win enough games to qualify for a bowl, but I don't think they will win this one. I pick Baylor.
• #24 Mississippi State at Missouri, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met only twice before — the most recent encounter being in 1984, which may have been before the fathers of most of today's college football players were old enough to be in elementary school.
  
  History will be of little help in picking a winner in this game.
  
  The Bulldogs have won five of their last six games, but they've lost both of the games they have played against ranked teams. Consequently, Mississippi State should beat Missouri — but should be concerned about next week's game against seventh–ranked Alabama.

Friday

• #23 Temple at SMU, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This doesn't look like much of a contest.
  
  Temple was undefeated until losing a close one to Notre Dame last week. Meanwhile, SMU has lost its last six games; if South Florida had managed to kick another field goal, each of those teams would have scored at least 41 points on the Ponies.
  
  At 1–7, the Mustangs are already eliminated from bowl consideration — even if they could somehow win their last four games.
  
  It's hard to see how SMU can get motivated enough to knock off the Owls. I'll take Temple in this one.

Saturday

• Minnesota at #1 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central): These teams have been playing each other since 1921, and Ohio State wins more than 86% of the time.
  
  The Gophers impressed everyone when they took TCU down to the wire in the season opener and when they came close to beating Michigan last weekend. But they didn't impress anyone when then–16th–ranked Northwestern shut them out — nor when unranked Nebraska nearly hung 50 points on them.
  
  The Gophers are 4–4, and they need two wins to qualify for a bowl. They will still need two wins after this game is done. I pick Ohio State.
• #17 Florida State at #3 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This may be the game of the year in the ACC. It seems to be the game that will decide who wins the conference this year — and it will establish if all the talk of Clemson being the best team in the country has any basis.
  
  The Seminoles have dominated this series, which began in 1970 but the teams haven't been playing each other annually all that time. They began playing each other every year when they became conference rivals in 1992. Florida State has won more than 71% of the time and has won six of the last eight encounters.
  
  Clemson has been tough for Florida State to beat on the road. The Seminoles won the last time they played at Clemson, but, before that, Clemson had won five straight against Florida State. They don't call it Death Valley for nothing.
  
  Nevertheless, I am going to pick Florida State in an upset special.
• #4 LSU at #7 Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is, without a doubt, the game of the week — as it usually is when these teams square off.
  
  Alabama has won the last three meetings — but it is usually close. Outcomes like Alabama's 38–17 triumph over LSU two years ago are uncommon.
  
  So I'm expecting another close one — befitting the teams' Top10 rankings.
  
  Fact is, Alabama usually wins, no matter where the game is played. I'll take Alabama.
• #5 TCU at #12 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This has been a close series over the years, but, ultimately, the winner tends to be whichever team is the home team.
  
  This year, that is Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys haven't lost at home to the Frogs since 1991.
  
  That home team thing isn't infallible, though, and I'm inclined to pick TCU to win.
• #6 Michigan State at Nebraska, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Nebraska leads the all–time series, but Michigan State holds the edge lately, having won the last two meetings.
  
  The 3–6 Cornhuskers could really use a win in this game, having lost four of their last five, but the Spartans probably will win this game. That observation is based more on the sloppy play of Nebraska than the uninspiring play of Michigan State this season.
  
  In truth, neither team probably deserves to win — but somebody has to. I'll take Michigan State.
• #8 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Typically, Notre Dame beats Pitt a little more than two–thirds of the time. Yet the last time they met, the Panthers won.
  
  Then as now, Pitt was the home team, and the 6–2 Panthers could be a problem for the Irish. Pitt's two losses came to teams who were not ranked at the time but have won their way into the rankings since — Iowa and North Carolina. In both games, Pitt was within a single score of winning or tying things up.
  
  In an upset special, I will take Pittsburgh at home.
• #9 Stanford at Colorado, noon (Central) on Pac–12 Network: In spite of losing the season opener to Northwestern, Stanford has won seven in a row and is being spoken of as the gold standard of the Pac–12.
  
  Head to head, this is a streaky series. Colorado won the first three times they met, then Stanford won the last four, taking a 4–3 lead in the series with last year's 48–0 win at Boulder. Colorado is 4–5 and enters the game with four losses in its last five contests.
  
  I take Stanford. It's the momentum thing.
• #10 Iowa at Indiana, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: OK, the Hoosiers are better this year than usual. They started 4–0, but they are mired in a four–game losing streak.
  
  They hung in there against Ohio State, but that loss seemed to take the wind out of their sails, such as it was. That was the first of Indiana's four straight losses. Another one seems likely against 8–0 Iowa this week, and the prospects don't look any better next week against 6–2 Michigan.
  
  Still the Hawkeyes lost the last time they visited the Hoosiers (in 2013), and, historically, the Hoosiers have been more competitive on their home field.
  
  But I don't think that is going to make a big difference this time. I pick Iowa.
• Vanderbilt at #11 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Vandy took advantage of a rebuilding Florida program to record a 34–17 win in 1993, the last time the Commodores visited the Gators. That was Vanderbilt's only win over Florida since 1988 — and it was Vanderbilt's only win at Florida since 1945.
  
  Perhaps that gives you an idea of what an historically daunting assignment it is that Vandy faces at Gainesville. On average, the Gators beat the Commodores by more than 18 points on their home turf.
  
  These Gators (7–1) can clinch the SEC East title with a victory over 3–5 Vanderbilt. and I believe they will. I pick Florida.
• #13 Utah at Washington, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Utah has never beaten Washington. The Huskies are 8–0 all time against the Utes, but most of those games were played before 1980.
  
  It is truly a challenge to try to figure out the Huskies. They are 4–4 and have played well in losing efforts against the likes of Boise State and Oregon. And Washington even managed to beat a then–ranked Southern Cal squad. But they lost to a California team that, only a couple of weeks later, staggered into what has become a three–game losing streak.
  
  I expect Utah to get its first win in the series.
• Iowa State at #14 Oklahoma, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This will be the 80th time these teams have faced each other, and I can say without fear of contradiction that Iowa State almost never beat Oklahoma.
  
  In fact the Sooners haven't lost to the Cyclones since 1990.
  
  Not only does Oklahoma usually win but the score is usually lopsided as well. Unless you're an OU fan, you really have no reason to watch this one. I take Oklahoma.
• Navy at #15 Memphis, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the first meeting ever between these schools.
  
  At 6–1, Navy seems quite capable of keeping up with unbeaten Memphis, who may well have trouble staying focused with the showdown with Houston looming next week.
  
  So I'm going to pick Navy as an upset special.
• Rutgers at #16 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These teams met for the first time last year, and Michigan lost 26–24. If the Wolverines had kicked another field goal, they would have won the game and, if all the other games finished as they actually did, Michigan would have qualified for a bowl.
  
  This is a different Michigan team. The Wolverines are 6–2, and they have already qualified for a bowl berth. The question now is which one will it be? Each victory moves Michigan closer to playing on New Year's Day.
  
  I don't think 3–5 Rutgers will put up much of a fight in the Big House. I'll take Michigan.
• Cincinnati at #18 Houston, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools have met 23 times, and Houston holds a slender 13–10 advantage.
  
  But Cincinnati has accumulated most of those wins since 1993. Prior to that time, Houston was 11–2 against Cincinnati.
  
  So even though Houston is 8–0 and Cincinnati is 5–3, I have to say the historical edge (since '93, at least) belongs to Cincinnati. On top of that, Houston may be distracted by thoughts of the showdown with undefeated Memphis coming up next week.
  
  As my upset special, I will take Cincinnati.
• Arkansas at #19 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: There was a time when this game was seen as a border rivalry, but then the schools let their annual showdowns lapse and, with the exception of the 1970 Sugar Bowl, nearly two decades went by before they played again.
  
  They resumed the series in 1981 as an annual nonconference game, but a decade later it became a conference game when Arkansas joined the SEC. Since that time, Arkansas is 13–10 against Ole Miss. The Hogs have been competitive in games played in Mississippi as well.
  
  I'd love to see the Hogs win because then they would only need one more victory to qualify for a bowl, but my head overrules my heart. I pick Ole Miss to win.
• Duke at #21 North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the 95th consecutive season these teams have faced off. North Carolina leads the series, winning about 64% of the time. Lately, the Tar Heels have really dominated, winning 10 of the last 12 encounters.
  
  Duke is coming off its excruciating 30–27 loss to Miami (Fla.) that snapped a four–game Blue Devil winning streak. The 7–1 Tar Heels have won every game since losing their opener to South Carolina.
  
  Should be a pretty good game — even without the bitter basketball rivalry spilling over onto the gridiron. I'll take North Carolina.
• #22 UCLA at Oregon State, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These teams have faced each other 61 times, and UCLA wins about 70% of the time.
  
  Lately, though, the Beavers have been in control of the series, winning on the road in the most recent meeting (in 2012) and defeating UCLA in three of their last five games.
  
  Still, Oregon State is 2–6 in 2015 and has lost its last five games. UCLA is 6–2 and seems likely to crush the Beavers. Consequently, I'll take UCLA.
• Auburn at #25 Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This series is more than 100 years old. The first game was played in 1911, then about three–quarters of a century went by before the teams faced off in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Day 1986.
  
  In the games that have been played on the Auburn and Texas A&M campuses, the visiting team has always won, and it is tempting to pick Auburn to continue that trend. But the Tigers, who were ranked when the season began, have lost four of their last six games and look like longshots to earn a bowl bid. They just about have to win this game to remain in the running, but I don't think that will happen. I pick Texas A&M.

Last week: 15–2

Upset specials last week: 1–1

Season: 129–25

Upset specials overall: 3–9